533. Andy Burnham's Big Gamble: Can He Beat Reform?

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2:11Rory Stewart:Welcome to The Rest is Politics with me, Rory Stewart. And me, Alistair Campbell. and we're talking about developments in the leadership of the Labour Party. We had the dreadful local election results recently since when there's been massive speculation about whether anybody might challenge Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister and leader of the Labour Party. Step forward this morning, we're streeting Health Secretary, resigning from the Cabinet, saying in his letter of resignation that he no longer has the confidence in the Prime Minister and he wants a broad leadership debate to see who should follow him.

2:49And then this evening, step forward Andy Burnham, the mayor of Manchester. Lots of talk about which seat he might step into and step forward on his behalf, a young MP by the name of Joss Simons, who has stepped down from a seat in the Manchester area. And Andy Burnham says he wants to ask the national executive to let him be a candidate.

3:11Rory Stewart:Let me try for foreign listeners just quickly, or any British listeners who, like me, have been doing other work today and haven't been following the ins and outs. Essentially, under the Labour Party rules, if an MP, sitting MP, gets enough MPs to back him, just over 80 MPs, they can trigger a leadership challenge to the sitting leader, who in this case is Keir Starmer. And then the rules are that it goes to an alternative voting system where the electorate voting are Labour Party members and affiliated members, which I guess means members of trade unions or certain types of members of trade unions.

3:54Rory Stewart:And if nobody clears 50 % of the first round, the candidates votes are redistributed until somebody emerges as the winner. Yeah. And the system, I guess, was set up in order to try to balance two things. One is to make sure that the candidate was not such an outsider that no MPs were prepared to get behind them. So maybe that was sort of blocking the return of a Jeremy Corbyn, who maybe they thought wouldn't have got the requisite 80 plus votes. And the second thing is, of course, giving a voice to the party. But that means that different MPs now challenging Starmer have advantages and disadvantages.

4:31Rory Stewart:Starmer has one big advantage if he wants to hang on, which is he can try to hold the MPs and stop them putting their names behind an alternative. And we can talk about that. If he fails to do that, then I guess there will be insiders who may be better at mobilising the critical number of MPs. And then there may be somebody, and this is what I wanted to get you with, what if there's somebody like Angela Rayner, who might be more appealing to the party in the country. And for someone like me from outside, it seems to me she'd almost be a shoo-in if it was just the Labour Party members voting. So that's where we are.

5:05Rory Stewart:And final thing I wanted to say before I came back to you is the timing on this is odd. We're doing an emergency podcast now because it's incredibly big news because it feels like the Prime Minister is about to be challenged directly. But Andy Burnham's route in would be through a by-election and a by-election would take four to six weeks to happen before he'd even get into parliament and he'd need to be in parliament before he could run against Keir Starmer, I think. Over to you. Well, what I'd say, Rory, is that your knowledge of the workings of the Labour Party has vastly improved in recent years due to your constantly listening to me banging on about it.

5:44Look, I think this is, from Andy Burnham's perspective, very high risk. He's the mayor of Manchester. He's a very popular mayor of Manchester. But there is not much love for politicians who make way for other politicians who want to do something different. I think it was Bruce Milan who became a Labour commissioner. And they thought, well, he's going off to Europe, people are going to be so proud of him. No, not really. So Josh Simons, a young MP, was a minister, resigned from the government because he got caught up in a scandal about the organisation he used to be part of, Labour Together, which was allegedly spying on Sunday Times journalists.

6:27This is the seat that Andy Byrne is going to go for. The last MRP poll, they predicted for the next general election, whenever it happens, a 7 ,000 majority for reform. a graphic which Selene, our social media person, has put around today, the chances of winning this seat, reform 82%, Labour 17%, Conservatives 0%. So this is not a safe route in. Now, if you look at those local elections, there probably is no safe route in. I was talking to somebody earlier who was saying, actually, probably the best thing to Andy would be to forget about Manchester and try and find a seat in London. It might be a little bit, and even in London, it's not sort of absolutely guaranteed.

7:12So he's got to get in. He's got to then get 80 nominations himself, and then he can join West Street In. Your point about Angela Rayner, I think that if Andy Burnham gets in, Angela Rayner may feel that that is her sort of politics properly being represented. I think that Angela Rayner, even though today she's been celebrating the fact that HMR, she's been involved in this big tax scandal, HMRC have said that she's done nothing wrong, she's not been fined, the tax affairs have been sorted out. But prior to that, I'd say her stock was falling somewhat. This may be putting it back in, but I think as things stand, if it was just West Streeting in there, I think Kirsten would definitely stand.

7:56If it's West Street and Andy Burnham, I think he'll work out whether he's got a realistic chance of winning. But the other issue that might get thrown into the mix here is that I said this to you on the main episode last time we recorded. Don't rule out the pressure that there will be to have a woman candidate on the shortlist. And then meantime, I know you're a huge admirer of Al Kahn's. He's relatively junior MP in terms of how long he's been in there, but he's a minister. And he's been putting it around today or people on his behalf that if there is an open contest, he sees himself as being part of it as well.

8:34So it's wide open. It's incredibly confusing. And my sense at the moment of Keir Starmer is he's not going anywhere. So there's going to be a big bruising contest at a time for the country when I just think it's giving the worst possible image of the party to the country right now and the country to the world.

8:53Rory Stewart:Okay, well, let's just get into that for a second then. So let's just develop that. What's your basic emotional reaction to this as somebody who's a real, I mean, this has been your life for a very long time. What's the no holds barred Alistair reaction if you were talking to a friend or Fiona about what's going on? What have you been saying on the phone to people today? I'll tell you what I've been saying to people I think have an influence over Keir Starmer. I think that it probably was looking back a mistake to blocked Andy Burnham. Though I said at the time it is a bit odd if you expect the leader to say, here's the door, come through the door.

9:27I know your goal is to knock me out. Come and try. Okay. Added to which, and I'm only speaking here secondhand, I've not spoken to Shabana Mahmood, but Shabana Mahmood is a very, very key figure on the national executive. And I'm hearing that Shabana Mahmood is supporting the idea of Andy Burnham coming in. So I think that what maybe Keir Starmer could have done in the last 48 hours to have bought himself a bit of time, as I've been saying to you all week, let's just try and calm things down a bit. This is not a sensible mood in which to discuss these catastrophic election results. But what I think he could have done is said, look, it's perfectly obvious.

10:05A lot of you don't like me. I think I've got a mandate for a term. I'm going to try and see that through. But I get that there's a lot of demand for change. It seems to me that if there is going to be change, and this guy Andy Burnham that a lot of people seem to like, he should be part of that. And we can see how we can do that without damaging the Manchester mayoralty. Because don't forget, Andy Burnham vacating the mayor's seat in Manchester means there has to be a violation for that. So my emotional reaction is, even if it's the right thing to get Keir Starmer to step down ahead of the next election.

10:43I am far from convinced that this is the right time or the right way to go about it. And you said when we talked about this the other day, well, there's never a right time, there's never a right way. And there's something in that. But this feels, I think, it also underlines that there's been an awful lot of plotting going on. Well, there's always plotting in politics, you know that, and I know that. But I think that you've just literally had the King's speech yesterday. So that's a King's speech that West treating was part of designing. Health is a big part of it. And to have gone so quickly from what yes were terrible results without any real analysis other than, oh, well, let's change the leader.

11:21And I think changing the leader is easier to say that you should do it and do it than necessary to think through all the consequences until you've worked out who's going to take over.

11:34Rory Stewart:I get you're really angry about this and that you feel that this was the wrong decision and it's going to make a real mess. I guess the brutal question is, firstly, is it actually possible for Keir Sarma to survive now that Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham are doing this? Or are we just kind of, we are where we are? And however angry you are about it, Keir Sarma is very unlikely to be around in three, six months time. Yeah. And by the way, let me say, I'm not, you know, I've always tried to put the case for Keir Starmer, because I think he gets so much sort of stuff thrown at him. But I've never pretended that I think he's, you know, the bees knees as leader of the Labour Party or as Prime Minister.

12:16And, you know, the Labour person in me genuinely wants this government to do well and would like to see Labour win the next election if possible, because I think most governments need at least two terms to kind of, you know, make big change. So what I say about that is I think his chances of surviving long term are a lot slimmer than they were. There's no doubt about that. Because the message that's being put out, there is an awful lot of, let's imagine he survives. We now know that there are literally dozens of MPs sitting there day after day after day after day thinking, I don't want him there.

12:52So even survival is quite a tough place for Keir Starmer to be. So, you know, I think that his chances of surviving are pretty slim, to be honest. What should he do then?

13:03Rory Stewart:Should he accept that and say, well, that probably does mean that he needs to set a timetable for his resignation, which is what Theresa May did in 2019? Or does he take the John Major view, which I guess was 1995, which is, I'll fight this out. And yes, there's a lot of people who don't like me, but I can win this and I can take them into the next election. I think that latter position is where he is in his mind right now. But I think a lot of that is driven just by sheer anger, feeling that, you know, why is this all being thrown at me? Now, the answer to that is that's what happens in modern politics.

13:41You know, as you know, I'm in Germany. There was literally an article in one of the broadsheet papers yesterday, suggesting that Merz might have to call another general election after a year. Now, I don't think that's where they're going to go. But I think that in modern times, with politics as brutal as it is, populism as viral as it is, social media as violent as it is, the sheer hatred that there is at high-profile public figures in the public is very, very hard. I think he still thinks that he is better than any of the options that are being put forward. Certainly thinks that on foreign policy.

14:16And I know you and I have talked about this. I mean, it is a worry if somebody emerges who's literally had no experience of foreign policy, probably not giving it that much thought, given how much on the prime minister's plate is foreign policy right now. He's probably thinking that. He's probably feeling very personally betrayed and hurt. He's probably feeling that, you know, West Street is a snake. Josh Simon is a snake. Andy Burns. He's probably thinking all of that. But what he has to do as well as the rest of them, when I say everyone needs to calm down, everyone needs to step back a bit, that includes him.

14:51Really work it out.

14:52Rory Stewart:Okay, so let's assume then that probably the writing is on the wall for Starmer. Maybe very unfair. And I'm actually speaking as somebody who comes from the Tory party. There's a lot of my former colleagues and people in the center of politics who are saying, be careful what you wish for. We could have done a lot worse than Keir Starmer. He might be a bit boring, but actually he and Rachel Reid's pretty steady. The economy's growing. the bond markets being a bit unfair, but actually, you know, there are things they failed to do, but they've not been dangerous, damaging politicians. And it could get a lot worse.

15:31Rory Stewart:Certainly, if you're from the Tory party, you would worry that Angela Rayner would be much more left wing, that the kind of things that people are talking about in terms of cutting welfare spending. Well, let's look at West Streeting's little manifesto or what seems to be his manifesto. He seems to say, vote for me. I'm going to cut welfare spending. I'm going to strengthen defense. I'm going to radically reform the NHS. I'm going to make life easier for businesses. I'm going to deregulate. So it's very much sounds like a sort of more business friendly, free market version of Keir Starmer. And then Angela Rayner on the other side sounded in that a large thing that she put out a few days ago to be staking out a much more left-wing position.

16:19Rory Stewart:Is that right, roughly? Yeah. And it'd be interesting to see, for example, whether if the leadership contest does go ahead and West Street does have the numbers, whether he will feel that he has to somehow inoculate himself against the charges that are already being put out there. You've given the version on policy, but I saw one of the first things that happened yesterday when he left that 17-minute meeting with Keir Starmer was a graph that was put out from somebody on the left base saying, these are all the people that have bought we're streeting. I mean, he's going to get a lot of attack from the left.

16:51He will be seen as the candidate of the right. There will be a candidate of the left, be that Andy Burnham, Ed Miliband has made clear that if there isn't one, then he would be prepared to stand. And then Keir Starmer, I guess, would, if he stood in those circumstances, would project himself as the candidate of the centre.

17:17Rory Stewart:One small thing there. You just said Ed Miliband might stand. And that again, for most listeners, I think will be absolutely staggeringly astonishing. I mean, this is the guy who managed to manoeuvre his way into being Labour leader in 2010. From the point of view of you and me and many others, David Miliband, his brother, would have been a better choice, took Labour to defeat in 2015, seemed, we thought, not really, whatever his merits are as a man, not quite to have the full capacity to be Labour leader. I mean, can Labour seriously be thinking of sort of jumping back 16 years and trying Ed Miliband again?

17:58Well, I'm not saying that's going to happen. I'm simply saying that I know that he is of a mindset that if they continue to block Andy Burnham, and if none of the others manage to rise up to get sufficient support to take on West Streeting, then he would do it. In other words, the point I'm making is that he's been operating as, if you like, a guardian of the soft left, seeing West Streeting as not being of the soft left. So that's all I'm saying. I'm not That underlines to me how much if we're not careful. Because the other thing, you talk about me being angry. I'm not angry about this. I'm just sort of frustrated, really.

18:39Because one of the things I think that I've been shocked at, we've seen this with some of the scandals, most notably the Peter Mandelson scandal, but also some of the so-called smaller scandals, is I've just been watching the way that labor is being portrayed as being no better than the last lot. That's lethal. And that plays completely into Farage's hands. And, you know, when you think about what people say about the last lot, well, inflation, stagflation, the economy not growing, public services not rapidly improving the way that they wanted. you've got a sense that the Labour Party is now doing what people hated about the Tory party fighting all about themselves all about the next leader who's up who's down the stuff that you know I think most of the public hate now if you're Andy Burnham you're West Street and you think Keir Starmer's got to go it's part of politics but once the public starts to think this is what you're in politics for, as opposed to you're trying to make my life better, it's lethal.

19:48And I really worry for the Labour Party that this, you know, no party has a divine right to exist.

19:54Rory Stewart:So there's that, there's a huge existential threat, which is it could end up like the Socialist Party in France, or I'm very worried about the direction Conservative Party's going. It's possible our two big parties could be in real trouble. We might be entering a five party system where they shrink and vanish. There's another thing I don't quite get. How is it possible for anyone on the right, like West Streeting, to win with Labour party members? I mean, isn't that the same problem that I had running against Boris Johnson, which is broadly speaking in 2019 when I was running? The Tory party wanted somebody on the right of Tory politics.

20:29Rory Stewart:And it was all very well. People used to make a joke that I was the Tory party leader that everybody wanted except for the Tory party members. I mean, isn't that the problem with Wes Streeting? It's all very well that people like me love him, but how's he going to get the votes of the Labour party members if he's running against Angela Rayner or Ed Miliband or Andy Burnham? He'll be thinking a similar version of what you thought. You thought, and if you think about it, go back to your time in that challenge. You were coming from almost from not a standing start, but you were in a way the least known of the main names going into that.

21:03And yet you did manage to breakthrough. I think he'll be hoping that he can project himself in a way that people say, say what you like about him, that guy's a winner. That's what I think he will be trying to do. And maybe portray the others as being all about the politics, as it were. But the fact is, he's been in politics all his life. We talked to him on Leading not long ago. In fact, I think I'm right in saying that all of the people who are being mentioned, including Angela Rayner who we've got on the podcast this week in our Gen Z series all of the ones that are being talked about we have interviewed on Leedy but when we interviewed Wes Streeting did you have a sense then of where he was politically?

21:45Did you feel that this that the way that he's projected himself now is what you imagine him to be?

21:51Rory Stewart:What I got on that was somebody who was a good talker was surprisingly relaxed was interesting about his Christian faith and his background, was very funny about his family background, was convincing, I thought, on the NHS and the kind of reforms he wanted to bring through in the NHS. But it's so difficult for an outsider to answer the question. I just had a Labour MP ring me and she just said, Angela is just much more popular with the party members. And then I had another MP who had both Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner up to their constituency and they were like, well, Wes Streeting did a great job.