573. Burnham and Carney vs. Trump, and the Diana Dispute

22 Sep 2026 · 52 min · 17 chapters

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In short

The episode is a wide-ranging discussion of the United Nations’ purpose amid a weakening rules-based international order. Hosts argue that US funding cuts under Trump triggered crises across UN agencies (including around $4bn in unpaid US arrears), and that rising Chinese influence raises questions about what the UN can still do. They trace UN history through phases: great-power policing after WWII, decolonization shocks (e.g., South Africa agenda; Dag Hammarskjöld; U Thant and the Cuban Missile Crisis), and the post-1989 expansion into human rights and peace/security. They claim UN Security Council veto politics now block action, with the US often the vetoing power. They criticize António Guterres as “useless,” citing weak mediation in Russia-Ukraine and sidelining of UN roles in Gaza.

Notable examples

the Ethiopia-Egypt-Sudan dam work (UN should lead but UAE dominates funding), and the “Board of Peace” (a Trump-linked, Gulf-funded entity).

Guests

none mentioned by name; it’s primarily hosts Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart, plus references to figures like Andy Burnham, Keir Starmer, Mark Carney, and Charles Spencer.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

The Role of the UN in a Changing World

2:00 to 2:23

Exploring the current function and relevance of the UN amidst global changes.

“Welcome to The Rest is Politics with me, Anastair Campbell.”

Challenges Facing the UN Today

2:23 to 3:21

Discussing the weaknesses and funding issues impacting the UN's effectiveness.

“Who's going to lead it after Guterres, of whom you're not a massive fan?”

Historical Perspectives on the UN's Evolution

3:21 to 4:48

A look at the UN's phases of development from its inception to the present.

“I think the first thing is US weakened it in a very straightforward way.”

The Search for Effective Leadership in the UN

4:48 to 6:40

Evaluating potential candidates and the qualities needed for UN leadership.

“These were two really interesting figures who made the UN central to peace.”

The Impact of US Politics on the UN

6:40 to 8:08

Analyzing how the US's stance affects the UN's role and effectiveness.

“But I think in terms of their place in the dominant global agenda, they've just been squeezed out.”

Critique of Current UN Leadership

8:08 to 10:40

Debating the effectiveness of current UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

“So he's now coming to the end of his term, 10 years, and it's the end.”

Future Challenges for the UN

10:40 to 14:00

Speculating on the UN's future and the need for strong leadership in crisis.

“special representative secretary general in a country, working like the amazing - This is the latest job advertisement for Rory Schutt.”

The Complex Role of the UN

14:00 to 15:10

Explore the challenges the UN faces in leadership and mediation roles.

“And the answer is, Guterres should be saying, excuse me, Pakistan has vested interests.”

Andy Burnham's Meeting with Trump

15:10 to 21:00

Discussion about Andy Burnham's upcoming meeting with Trump and its implications.

“I think we're violently in agreement that the key role should be somebody who can do the peace and security stuff and secretariat stuff.”

Carney's Vision and Leadership

21:00 to 27:30

Analyzing Mark Carney's leadership and vision for international relations.

“But one of the things that worried me a little bit in the heart of that is I was struggling to really read beyond Gaza what the big Kani-like foreign policy vision was, particularly in relation to the US.”
Show all 17 chapters

The Future of International Alliances

27:30 to 28:06

Discussing the potential for new alliances in international politics, especially concerning Europe and the Commonwealth.

“There's a vision for what it could look like, which is the Middle Power Alliance and how to get there.”

Middle Powers and Multilateralism

28:06 to 36:16

Explore the role of middle powers in global politics and their relationship with the UN.

“I think the middle powers should be contributing more to the UN because that will be part of their multilateral values.”

The King's Allegations and Memory

38:21 to 42:00

Discussion on the recent allegations against the King regarding Diana and the nature of memory.

“Welcome back to The Restless Politics with me, Rory Stewart.”

Reflections on Media and the Royal Family

42:00 to 43:35

Discussion about the media's role in the royal family's narrative and Charles Spencer's views.

“back and then reading a diary and be like, whoa.”

AI Summit Insights

43:35 to 45:56

An examination of the recent AI summit, its participants, and discussions about international cooperation.

“If you want to see an example of the King doing impressive stuff, there was that speech, which I think you write about in Persevillians very well, the Trump speech.”

Concerns Over AI and Regulation

45:56 to 49:15

Exploring the dangers and regulatory challenges surrounding AI technology and Trump's stance on it.

“There's no need for any safety regulation at exactly the moment when OpenAI and Anthropoc are terrified.”

Cultural Reflections and AI Impact

49:15 to 50:44

A lighthearted discussion about cultural experiences at the AI summit and a tribute to the organizing team.

“Anthropoc, OpenAI, NVIDIA, et cetera, Google Gemini there in the room.”
Hear the part that matters, and keep it.Open this episode in VO. Double tap your headphones to save a moment as you listen.
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Rory Stewart:We're recording this as world leaders gather now in New York for the United Nations General Assembly. Andy Burnham, the British Prime Minister, is preparing for his very first face-to-face meeting with Donald Trump. And across Europe, governments are confronting Russian sabotage. In Germany, the far right and the far left have just dominated elections. And countries like Canada are looking for new alliances as the old Atlantic order becomes less certain. And at the centre of all this sits the United Nations, an institution created for a very different world. For 80 years, we've talked about a rules-based international order.

0:34Rory Stewart:But what happens when the rules are no longer agreed? The great powers no longer trust each other, and America itself is questioning the system it once underwrote. So what is the United Nations actually for now? What should it become? And if the old order is disappearing, what institutions can still keep the peace? This episode is powered by Fuse Energy. £100, that is what one message to a friend could earn for you. Fuse Energy has one aim, keeping energy prices down for everyone, not just for those who ring up and threaten to leave. Their tariffs are already among the lowest on the market, and now they're doubling their referral offer.

1:15Refer one friend and you will get£100 off your bills.

1:19Rory Stewart:And that's each of you,£100 off your bills. So the maths does itself. You save on the tariff and then you both benefit from the referral on top. Simplicity, rarely seen today in today's political climate. And just remember the£100 is a limited offer and it drops back to£50 when it ends. Energy prices, as we keep reminding you, are not settling down. Switching takes three minutes. Go to FuseEnergy.com slash politics, use code politics to get your free TripPlus membership on top and start referring. Earning money for both you and your friends. Visit FuseEnergy.com for full terms and conditions.

2:08Welcome to The Rest is Politics with me, Anastair Campbell. And me, Rory Stewart. So we're going to talk a lot about the UN. Andy Burnham's there today, lots of world leaders there. He's got his first sort of big meeting with Trump. But also what's the UN for? Is it functional? What's its future look like? Who's going to lead it after Guterres, of whom you're not a massive fan? And we're also going to talk about whether you like it or not, the Charles Spencer attack upon your friend the king. It sort of feels incredibly both consequential and inconsequential. And I'll tell you what I mean by that.

2:38I watched Guterres talking about his priorities for the summit, for the UNGA. And he said, he set out three, runaway artificial intelligence, climate change, and growing inequalities. Okay. And he said these were existential threats, plug for Rory's new miniseries. And he then said, and we need to work hard towards peace in the Middle East and ending the war in Ukraine. And as he said those five things, I thought, yeah, he's probably right. But the UN's voice in that is, well, it's sort of, I can't even use the word weak. It's like, what is it? Where is it? Where is the UN place in all this? And of course, we can all criticize, as you and I do, Donald Trump's endless failures on different specific policy areas.

3:20But he set the strategic goal to weaken the United Nations, and he's done it. And it's with consequences. Yeah.

3:28Rory Stewart:I think the first thing is US weakened it in a very straightforward way. Money. Yeah. And many of these agencies received almost half their funding from the US. So, when the US stopped its funding, there was complete crisis in all these agencies. And they still owe up to nearly 4 billion, whereas the Chinese have actually paid their dues. Right. And owing 4 billion, which one imagines under Trump, they're not going to pay. He's not famous for paying his debts, is he? And then you've introduced the second point, which is, Of course, as the US contribution goes down, the contribution of China, the other major economy in the world, becomes more and more important and raises the question of what the UN is for.

4:04Rory Stewart:This will become more and more important as we get close to hiring a new Secretary General. My sense of it is the UN has probably been through three phases and is now looking for a fourth. Firstly, set up after the Second World War, where I think if you were Churchill, Roosevelt, Stalin or Churchill Truman Stalin, you thought that really it was going to be a way of the great powers together, the people who eventually became the Security Council, the great powers of those days policing the world together. Then they got an awkward shock in the 50s and 60s when it suddenly turned out that all these new countries joining the UN turned out to be considerably more independent than people thought.

4:40First shock was when NERU put formal criticism of South Africa

4:44Rory Stewart:on the agenda. And then you had this amazing guy, Utant, and Doug Hammerskolt. These were two really interesting figures who made the UN central to peace. Doug Hammerskolt on Suez, Utant on the Cuban Missile Crisis. And Utant, of course, a relatively mild-mannered, middle-aged, Burmese civil servant turned minister who suddenly became a kind of rock star celebrity in New York. It's a lovely book about him by his grandson, Tant Minu, which is a really lovely account of that. Then we fast forward to the period where you and I, I think, were mostly dealing with the UN, which is the period after 1989.

5:18Rory Stewart:So America emerges triumphant. And at this point, the UN goes from being something that's doing niche peacekeeping to a much more expansive vision, where it's going to be doing human rights, governance, peace and security all over the world. And it's part of a general story that in the 90s, the whole world is, and you can see it in the data, every year, There are fewer refugees. There are more democracies. There are fewer conflicts. All going the right direction. Somewhere at the heart of this is the UN. It lets everybody down in Rwanda. It manages to recover a bit of credibility in its involvement, maybe in places like Bosnia and Cambodia.

5:52Rory Stewart:Now, we're in a completely different world. I guess the question is, given firstly a succession of useless Secretary Generals, I mean, this current Guy Guterres is just no good at all. That is harsh. Terrible, terrible, sexual. We'll get into that in a second. And then collapse of the rules-based international order and the US backing, because in some ways, maybe the story I'm telling the 90s is a story about the US and how the US wanted to use it. Where does it go now? Over to you. I think, is he useless? I think he's just inherited an incredibly tough wicket. I don't know if the Portuguese play cricket, but he's inherited a very, very tough wicket because of this sense that the big powers are seeing the United Nations as more of a challenge to them than something that they're controlling.

6:39I still think the United Nations, you know, our friend Tom Fletcher, the humanitarian stuff that they do, I think there are some of the peacekeeping missions that they do where the UN's played a really important role. But I think in terms of their place in the dominant global agenda, they've just been squeezed out. And if you go back to, you mentioned the time we were there, of course, you know, in the, say, like the buildup to the Iraq war, one of the really big things was Tony Blair persuading George Bush at least to try to take it through the United Nations. We do these things better if we do have the authority of the United Nations.

7:10But I think what you've got now, so if you go back to the start, most of the vetoing, so just to explain to those people who don't know, you've got five powers who are the permanent five on the Security Council, and they all have the power of veto, and that's US, China, UK, France, Russia. Back in the day, back when the whole thing started, the Soviet Union was the biggest vetoer. I don't know if vetoer is a word, but the biggest vetoing power. It's now America. It's now America that is stopping the international approach. Now, you still have bilateral deals going on. So America and China quite recently, for example, on Afghanistan, America has divvied up to pay for Afghanistan.

7:45They have let China take the lead in terms of these bilateral deals going on. And then you have these interesting partnerships. So Denmark and Pakistan have come together, leading together on trying to deal with the issue of UN peacekeepers coming under attack, which happens, sadly, all too often. But the point about the leadership is so important. So you say, harshly, I think, Guterres is useless. I think it's just that he's operating with these incredibly powerful, particularly the American China and Russia, of course, doing what it's doing in Ukraine. So he's now coming to the end of his term, 10 years, and it's the end.

8:18And I mean, you and I follow this stuff very, very closely. So Michel Bachelet, who was the former president of Chile, she's just pulled out. She's no longer standing. So the candidates we're left with to take over, Yvonne Abaki, Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garces, former foreign minister of Ecuador, Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rebecca Greenspan, former second vice president of Costa Rica and head of the UN Conference on Trade and Development, who apparently at the moment is the favourite, Olara Otunu, former Aguilera foreign minister, Carolyn Rodriguez Birquet, Guiana permanent rep at the UN.

8:54And I have to be honest, the only one that I knew anything about, Macky Sal, who's the former president of Senegal. So they are the runners and riders to take over. Now, what does that say? And partly there's the old rotating thing. It's meant to be somebody from the Latin America or Caribbean next up. But I think what you're seeing with those names is that people know that America, China, they're not going to have a big figure. They don't want somebody who's going to be able to - Well, it's interesting.

9:17Rory Stewart:Only one of them is actually a head of state. It's interesting. So if you're Andy Burnham, because Britain as a permanent member of the Security Council will be a relatively influential voice in trying to guide this. And I remember when I was a minister in the Foreign Office, how much time we spent sitting, scratching our heads, looking at candidates, lobbying for candidates, often very unsuccessfully for different UN agencies. There's a choice on what type of person they want. Are they looking for somebody who's going to be a very, very skilled peace negotiator, which is a kind of UTAM model?

9:49Rory Stewart:Are they looking for someone who's going to be an extraordinary communicator? Or are they going to be looking for what the US often talks about, which is somebody who does the management administration, cuts the costs, gets the bureaucracy going well? Well, that's obviously what the Americans keep wanting. They're constantly pressing for cuts to programs, cuts to budget, some of which are incredibly important. You know, they're trying to cut down the Kosovo mission. They're cutting down in Colombia. So there are these places where the UN have, you know, done a good job. I don't think we should, you know, and often incredibly difficult, dangerous circumstances.

10:20Rory Stewart:Let me comment on that. I mean, like you, I've kind of grown up around the UN and a lot of my international life was about working with the UN, admiring the UN. In fact, if you'd asked me five years ago what the great job I would want in life and that I haven't had yet and what to do next in my life, I would love to be an SRSG, a special representative secretary general in a country, working like the amazing - This is the latest job advertisement for Rory Schutt. Exactly. Whichever you are, deputy vice president of whichever country, I will back your candidacy if I can become the SRSG and DRC.

10:57Rory Stewart:No, but I mean, they are amazing figures. So, for example, Hans Gruber in Yemen has done an incredible job. Lakhdar Brahimi, maybe, in Afghanistan. He's a towering Algerian figure. Sergio de Mello, who I was with in Iraq shortly before he was killed in 2003. These extraordinary figures. And on the ground, they held their own with any general ambassador, foreign minister. And they really convened. They're extraordinary. Then on another level, the technical expertise can be incredible. I'm very struck in Ethiopia and again in Jordan by UNICEF and their water work. In that case, it was a huge tool.

11:33Rory Stewart:I think he was an Australian who was running the UNICEF office who was doing incredible work in the desert moving water around. And he was funny and relaxed. UNHCR and all the camps. Exactly. They did loads of good stuff. But I think we're dealing with America in particular and Trump in particular. They don't want strong people. And I think one of the criticisms, I'm not going to say useless, but one of the criticisms made of Guterres by people inside the UN, I think, is that he hasn't focused enough on the core purpose of peace and security. And partly because he maybe felt pushed out from that.

12:03Let's just take Gaza and Israel. Trump got the support of the UN for his approach, but the consequence of which has been to sort of push the UN out of the process. And we now have the ridiculous Board of Peace. Which essentially would in the past have been a UN convened body. Correct. And so the United Nations, I can't remember the last time that there was a sort of serious discussion about Israel Gaza and the United Nations Security Council. Just quickly to remind people, the Board of Peace is kind of one of the great symbols of our time, apart from the fact it's a lovely pun and it sounds like Trump is Board of Peace.

12:36But it's also that it's personal to him.

12:39Rory Stewart:It's not even connected to the US government. It's him. He nominates his successor. There's a membership fee, which mostly the Gulf states seem to be paying. They can get rid of him, provided that he agrees with being got rid of. Then they really can get rid of him, can't they? That sounds like a real ability. Putting in a billion dollars, who controls the money, where does the money go? It's a really incredible sort of medieval entity. I mean, more like, I don't know, Henry II setting up some new church foundation than any way of doing global governance. Now, why is Guterres useless? I believe he's useless, and you don't want to use these words, but exactly in that area you're talking about.

13:16It is astonishing that he was not right on a plane in the middle of the Russia-Ukraine thing, on the ground, dominating that. Because what are UN Secretary-General's good at? It's not necessarily the kind of long protracted civil war stuff, where, as you say, the causes are so complicated and they go back 700 years that you really do need civil society, women's movements, all this stuff that was going on in the Northern Island peace process alongside the big guys. They're particularly good at state conflict, or should be, where it really is a question of sitting Russians and Ukrainians together.

13:49Or Iran. Why on earth have the mediators been Pakistan and Oman? Or even, to be fair, Qatar

13:57Rory Stewart:or UAE, which has been doing stuff on the great dam between Ethiopia and Egypt. Why is it them? Why is it not the UN? And the answer is, Guterres should be saying, excuse me, Pakistan has vested interests. It's a very complicated play here. Why should Pakistan be mediating between the US and Iran with the United Nations? This is our job. But when I go through that list of his potential successors, and it's a quite sort of opaque process, they have all these sort of, you know, straw polls, and you're not meant to overtly lobby, and there's all that sort of nonsense. But you go through those, it's now look, there may be within them, a hidden character and leadership skills that you and I sitting here in Britain, have not necessarily been aware of, but it's unlikely.

14:42it's unlikely that a list of people that most of our listeners and viewers will not have heard of one of whom is going to become the leader of one of the most important organizations in the world at a time when we know because they say it that the big powers particularly us china russia don't want the united nations to matter quite so much so if you don't have that leadership symbolic figure who is strong who is respected who is seen as what do they think what is he she going to say then they weaken further. I think we're violently in agreement that the key role should be somebody who can do the peace and security stuff and secretariat stuff.

15:19I think we're also violently in agreement that a lot of the agencies on the ground do really good work. Not all of them, although I liked Akim Siner who ran UNDP. I've got some questions about the huge UN development program and whether that's really what we should be doing, which is pumping traditional development money through UN agencies that way.

15:36Rory Stewart:But certainly UNHCR, UNICEF, et cetera. But there's a third bit, which I think they should be much more confident about and they're not doing enough on. And my example on that is that dam. So that's a classic example. It's something which brings Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan together. It's very complicated cross-border work because it's to do with what you do if there's a drought, what happens upstream. It's got massive environmental impact. So it's got the first thing which the UN is about, which is it's multilateral and it's owned by all the member states. But secondly, theoretically, it's impartial.

16:11Rory Stewart:And thirdly, it's got the technical expertise. It's got all the hydrologists, it's got the water experts, it's got the political experts. So that's exactly the kind of thing, particularly environment climate, where the UN should be doing more and more and more. But the problem is that what actually happens on the ground is it turns out it's the United Arab Emirates leading on it, the funding's very uncertain. And often the funding is coming from one or two particular countries, which makes everyone accused of being biased. And then the technical experts, the hydrologists, don't feel confident politically.

16:39Rory Stewart:They sort of shuffle around in the background. Let's just take people into the United Nations. It's quite an ugly building. I thought you quite liked that kind of scandy look, all that kind of stripped pine and brass and big windows looking at the Hudson. Maybe it's because I think the building is quite ugly. But inside, particularly during Unger Week, it's just chaos. So let's talk a little bit about Andy Burnham, what he's going to do, because this is his first meeting with Trump. You know, we talk about Andy having quite a lot of luck along the way. I think he's quite lucky in this. It's not going to be as big a deal as if he was going to Washington.

17:10It's not going to be as big a deal as if Trump were in the UK. Why? Because lots of leaders are meeting lots of leaders. And the other thing is happening at this time, where Trump has had his latest tantrum against the media, and has kicked out some of the key media, including CNN, at which, hallelujah how often have we been saying when are they going to stand up for each other the broadcasters including fox news have said we're not going to do the pool wasn't that amazing that

17:39Rory Stewart:fox news were the first to announce yeah and that's a real problem for trump because there's nothing he enjoys more than dominating all of television and suddenly now he's had to set up his own television channel well it's hilarious because they they he was doing a ribbon cutting thing yesterday and the pool didn't turn up so there's no for life coverage and of course he one of the problems with the media is they think that whatever trump does is newsworthy which is not so they cover everything he does so they put it like they put it on the white house youtube channel but the pool also does the audio so there was no audio so you've got nine minutes of watching donald trump holding a pair of scissors and talking to guys in hard hats nobody knows what sort of rubbish he's coming out with.

18:23They need to do more of this, take away his oxygen because he doesn't deserve it. Andy Burnham may have a pull. Andy Burnham probably will want to be filmed, seen, etc. So this meeting will not happen in the place that we all know so well, which is this horrible British basement down a whole series of side corridors. Probably an American one, but that's not much better. It's a bit bigger. I remember once we had a meeting, I can't remember who I was with, but we really had to struggle to get the flags in the background because it was like this tiny little office cubicle. The British one is extraordinary.

18:56Rory Stewart:It's terrible. You actually look like you're going down the sort of service bits of the elevator shafts through various bits of covers. Yeah. And then they prop up the flags and then I, certainly as a foreign office minister, then pretend to look like I'm at some shaking hands with a president of Somalia looking as though I know what I'm doing. Exactly. So Andy Byrne, and the thing is, what's the risk when you're dealing with Donald Trump? It's that he comes out with some nonsense that kind of drives the agenda suddenly. Let's say he did. Well, I'm also going to be talking to Millay. He's having a few problems, but I can help him on this Falklands thing.

19:28Or he does his United Ireland thing. Or he says something about, I don't know, Sadiq Khan and immigration. He can come up with anything. Just to get inside Trump's head for a second. It's not necessarily that, you know, he sits down with his little paper before he goes

19:42Rory Stewart:saying one of my three points, it's that he somehow with some animal instinct senses where the story might be. And where the weakness of the person is. So I think, for example, when, do you remember when we did our live show, we showed the video of Trump dropping the papers and Keir Starmer bending down to pick them up. I think that was deliberate. I think he was trying to make him look small. I think in Scotland, when he sat there in the United Kingdom and started laying into Sadiq Khan, and I was sitting there saying, Keir, you can hit back. And Keir just sat there. So I hope Andy Burnham, and of course we'll know because this episode is going to go out after this meeting has taken place.

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20:18Obviously Andy Burnham will hope that nothing sort of ridiculous happens. But I hope if there is something like this, if for example, he talks about Ukraine, you know, and it's Zelensky's fault. I really hope that Andy says, well, no, I've got to tell you the British position is we totally support Ukraine and Zelensky's a fine man. So, on our map where we've got Carney, who comes out pretty clearly saying, I'm not going to be a US vassal. We're setting up an independent middle class thing. And Starmer, who's down there picking up the bits of paper. The cliche in the British papers at the moment is that Burnham sort of puts himself in the middle, has a little bit of both.

20:52Rory Stewart:I'm not sure that's a very clear value statement or a very clear way of driving the Foreign Office. And this is something that worried me. If people haven't listened to the Ed Miliband interview, I thought it was terrific. But one of the things that worried me a little bit in the heart of that is I was struggling to really read beyond Gaza what the big Kani-like foreign policy vision was, particularly in relation to the US. For example, it sounds as though, as usual, our security services, our military and everyone is defaulting into a pro-US position on Iran, despite the fact that they are bankrupting our economy in every single way.

21:26I mean, the major problem the Chancellor is facing is Trump's war in Iran. I'll give you an example of that where I think a different approach would have been appropriate. Hexeth this week said it was, quote, shameful that Europe did not support the Americans and the Israelis in the attack on Iran. Now, I would have liked several European leaders to come forward and said, well, you can say it's shameful. We all have to represent our own national interest. And right now, our national interest is most represented by the need to deal with the economic consequences of what you've done.

21:56Rory Stewart:And point out, say, not only was it not shameful, it was completely the correct decision. It was sensible. Let me just run through the 17 catastrophes you've imposed in the world by your stupid decision. Now, I don't think they can necessarily say that. I thought with Ed Bilabad, I had a long, long chat with him afterwards. And I think because his head was so in the weeds of Israel-Gaza, and I wouldn't underestimate how much of a push that was to get that through the system. that actually when it came, I think he thought Israel-Gaza, that's all they want to talk about. And then when we get on to Iran, I agree with you.

22:29I think he sort of defaulted to a position. I think Ed is going to be doing some pretty big, difficult things within the Foreign Office. So I wouldn't be too harsh on that. What I would say, though, is I think Carney is showing real leadership. Weirdly, no, not weirdly, because, you know, I think she's pretty good. I thought von der Leyen's response to Carney or the statement she made in advance of Carney, I thought was showing really to show. And this was the offer of the associate membership of the European Union. And I was really disappointed by some of the Europeans' response to that. It was basically, this is not, you know, we'd have to change the treaty.

23:02This is more complicated than it sounds.

23:04Rory Stewart:What were they doing? Why were they responding so bureaucratically and foolishly? I don't know. So depressing. What they should be doing is saying, this shows that Europe understands the scale of change in the world and that we have to make change as well. And this was a big deal. This was the European Parliament where the Prime Minister of Canada is invited to follow the speech by von der Leyen, which is like the state of the Union, the state of the European Union. And he is in the room for that. And then a day later, he makes this, well, he comes to Liverpool to watch a football match with Andy Burnham.

23:39He goes back and he makes this speech, which essentially was, I guess it was the next chapter after the Davos speech that you and I saw, where he was talking about this being a rupture rather than a transition. And he was setting out how we really don't have to just buy this other vision, even though it's noisy, even though it's loud. These are my words, not his. We have our own interests. We have a good understanding of the big issues that are facing us. Let's meet them together.

24:07Rory Stewart:And such leadership because it's about a solution. It's so unusual to have someone like that not just describe the problems of the world or pretend we can go back to the world that used to exist, but come up with a new vision. I mean, Carney's, I thought, look, Carney's a very good speaker and it was a very clever speech. I loved the starting with trees, ending with trees, Goethe. I wonder whether, do you think Trump's ever heard of Goethe? No. Not even heard of him, even though his dad was basically German. I'm very confident he's not heard of Goethe. He's not heard of Goethe. Not heard of Goethe.

24:38You can get a friend to ask him in the press pool, but I can guarantee he hasn't heard of Goethe.

24:44Rory Stewart:Okay. So anyway, it was a really clever speech. And it spoke to this change, the scale of change that is being inflicted by Trump, by the undermining of the international rules-based order, but also saying, so therefore we have to adapt. And I just think the other leaders need to be a bit stronger. Well, tell us about the speech. People talk about historic. You know, he's the Prime Minister of Canada, okay, over there on the top of North America. And you have von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, who makes a speech, sort of just a tribute to this guy's leadership, the change he's leaning into, offers this associate membership.

25:23Now, okay, the bureaucrats come out and say, well, it doesn't mean anything. And even the Canadians are coming out and saying, well, we prefer to think about a strong alliance. It's absolutely awful. Just lean into it. Yeah. Lean into it.

25:34Rory Stewart:Let me just sort of on that one. They've got to begin developing the muscles and the confidence in which Carney is beginning to develop. I mean, because this is something you would talk about, it's going through the whole Canadian system. It's not just Carney. The National Security Council actually does planning around how do we get strategic autonomy in 10 critical areas? How do we think about what would happen if the US did X, Y, or Z? I mean, it's soaked into the system. And so they know how to do this. Now, von der Leyen's obviously getting there. Macron and France - Which I was surprised by.

26:08Rory Stewart:Which is very exciting. Yes, you're right. You wouldn't necessarily guess that. Macron and France presumably have a goldist tradition where they know how to talk a little bit about strategic autonomy. But my God, this is the opportunity for Burnham. Because if you could add to that Carney's voice, I mean, Britain, I mean, Canada's a wonderful country, but Britain is a larger economy. It's a larger military. It's more influential potentially in the world. Burnham could be doing and we're in europe and burnham could be doing this the two of them together and why not a partnership after all we have the same king part of the same commonwealth why don't they make that a partnership together look i i think i could be completely wrong could be wishful thinking i think the government is going to do a big move on europe at some point i think at the moment one of the things that's holding them back i'm afraid is as you call him my friend emmanuel macron i think the french are being quite difficult on this but i was i was surprised even i know We're going to talk about Germany in question time, but the Germans were sort of a bit iffy about this and why weren't we consulted?

27:05And the bureaucracy takes over. What she was doing and what Carney was doing was actually setting out what people are desperate for is sort of a projection of a future vision beyond this world that Donald Trump is trying to create.

27:17Rory Stewart:And it's hope and it's a solution. I think the danger over the last four years is all of us have exquisitely analysed the collapse of the rules-based international order. The great thing now, which is giving us energy over the last year, is there's a solution. There's a vision for what it could look like, which is the Middle Power Alliance and how to get there. Which does go against what we've just been talking about, which is the importance of the United Nations as the body in which this is held. So I think the United Nations... Not sure though. If the UN is doing a Secretary General who focuses on two or three major conflicts and fixing them, great agencies on the ground delivering water with UNICEF and refugee staff, fantastic technical expertise cross-border, that could sit very comfortably with US, China, middle powers.

28:07I think the middle powers should be contributing more to the UN because that will

28:10Rory Stewart:be part of their multilateral values. Let me just make the Tory argument for why Burnham being lockstep with Carney. I mean, I almost want two eyes, meld them together. It actually provides him with some cover on the Europe story. For Tories, people who are suspicious of Europe, they love the Commonwealth. They love the idea of the king. They love the idea of Canada, Australia, New Zealand. So actually, what Burnham would be doing there is demonstrating that he can do both. I can be closer to Europe and I'm reaching out into traditional commonwealth. And we'd all be so excited. There's literally 85 % of the British public will be with him.

28:50Rory Stewart:The only people who are nervous are a few bureaucrats hovering around number 10 who are like, oh dear, we don't want to do these love actually moments. Let's not annoy Trump. We need him for Ukraine. You can imagine the conversations here. Do you know, we talked to Gordon Brown on leading this week and we talked a lot about his book he's written the future starts with us and of course he's got a lot there about the need for un the un to reform when we talked to alexander stug president of finland you know the the un security council is not really fit for 80 years after the war but to get the changes needed you need to buy in the support of china russia america france uk because they can veto anything they don't like so i think that is the very very hard bit but look i i thought the the reason i was so so like carne's speech first it was well written second it was well delivered even though he's not a rabble-rousing sort of orator but i mean look i don't know if you've ever been to the european parliament it's a tough gig right it's not an easy place to get the worked up and roused up he got virtually a standing ovation across the piece the public gallery was giving him a standing ovation why because he was saying look don't be too scared by this crazy stuff why is britain still so scared i don't think britain is scared i think britain is i think they're getting there but i I agree with you.

30:00Look, Britain should not be outflanked by Canada in our relations with Europe. That is not good politics. No. Nor outflanked by Canada in our relationship with the US.

30:08Rory Stewart:I mean, we're being outflanked every which way. I really would like to see, I cannot see really what the downside is of Burnham saying, Carney and Carney's vision is my lodestar and we're putting the full big weight of Britain in behind that vision. Well, let's see what he says at the party conference. And just as a sort of small footnote in the background, you will have noticed today, we're recording on Tuesday, that Britain's announced that they're going to provide air refuelers for the Saudis in the fight with the Houthis we talked about. And you'll see Canada's doing that too. Part of the middle power play is going to be working with Gulf allies who have a very, very different view of the world.

30:46Rory Stewart:You'll also see that Qatar, UAE, Saudi are beginning to make statements about how they need to make a deal with Iran, which is not a US deal, just in order to stabilize the region and start to get stuff moving through those straits. And I think Britain's opportunity now that Saudi, Qatar and others are so shaken by the way in which Trump didn't deliver from them, made them a target, and has actually destroyed their economies basically through this unnecessary war that they never wanted. I mean, it's unbelievable what's happened to their economies now, and now the Saudi economy as well. This is another real opportunity to get these very, very wealthy, rapidly developing states part of that alliance, because they don't want to be beholden to China or the US either.

31:31Before we go to the break, maybe just reflect a little bit on the Gordon Brown interview. You got very good feedback on it from all sorts of people. But you were quite taken, I thought. I've always really been taken with them. I mean, people will also pick up. There's a fascinating dynamic in the background between you and Gordon Brown, which I'll leave the psychologists and the anthropologists to analyze. It's an intriguing thing because you've known each other for so, so long. I mean, it's really weird. I mean, you're...

31:58Rory Stewart:Who's a Tory equivalent if you were sitting there with? Oh, for goodness sake, I don't know. David Cameron. David Cameron. David Cameron. No, Cameron's a good analogy. But I'm not as close to Cameron as you are to Brown, but it's a good analogy because he's someone who's basically on my side politically, but who I have a massive personal anxieties and problems with. So you're right. I mean, fundamentally, you share so much with Gordon Brown in terms of your political vision, your new labor vision. But there's obviously an enormous amount of history being played out of Rose. So funny, because I didn't feel it, but I know the production team came and had been watching it backstage as it were and said, God, that was tense.

32:34I didn't feel that at all. Maybe I'm just so used to it. He's such an extraordinary figure.

32:39Rory Stewart:You know, I think I've told you that And my first meeting with him was when I wasn't anything to do with politics. I think back 2006, 2007, when he was chancellor, he called me in to talk about Iraq. And I was so kind of flattered because I was very young. I guess I was in my early 30s and I was going to see the chancellor of the Exchequer and number 11. And I went in for an hour and it's a little bit disloyal to say this to him because I do admire him, but he literally talked to me for 55 minutes about the Treaty of Westphalia, the history of 17th century Europe and all this. I sat there and listened.

33:11Rory Stewart:And then in the end, he said, thank you very much. That's very informative. Yeah. Well, it's good that he called here because he's not fond of Tories. I've got to tell you, Rory. Well, I wasn't a Tory then, of course. Oh, yeah, of course you were. Then when I became a Tory, he became absolutely furious. He saw me in a video with the king who was visiting the Turquoise Mountain Project in Afghanistan in 2010. And he mounted a formal protest to the palace, threatened to get the Electoral Commission involved on the grounds that the king visiting me a few months before an election and me being on television would give unfair advantage to a Tory candidate.

33:45Fiona and I last night, we went to see, we're thinking about Gordon, we went to see this new James Graham play, The Standard of Living, which is all about John Maynard Keynes. And it's extraordinary. And we both came out and said, you know, it's just incredible that an economist is one of the key historical figures from that period. And actually so much of it is brain power, isn't it? Totally. What's so weird about Keynes? And I think it's true. Gordon Brown's very, very clever too. Keynes is clever. I mean, I think even Gordon would accept that. But it is incredible how just sheer processing power and a certain amount of charm and determination carried Keynes to this incredible position.

34:25Yeah, but we were both saying that he, in some ways, you know, not the whole sort of Bloomsbury set and all the kind of, you know, all the kind of promiscuity and all that, but the brainpower and the belief that it was brainpower that you needed ultimately to make change. In some ways, it did remind me of Gordon and the way that he operates in relation to politics, economy and change. It's a great play by that. I mean, James Graham, he's an absolute genius. I mean, he's every subject he takes. I saw him afterwards. I said, look, I do prefer your working class stuff, to be honest. But it's absolutely brilliant how he takes these really complicated issues.

35:03And the politics of it is because part of the story, there are lots of different stories going on, but part of the story is the battle, the intellectual battle between Keynes and Thatcher's favorite guy. What's his name? Hayek. And of course, it plays out through the play. They use amazing black and white photography through the whole thing. And it plays out, it's no doubt who James Graham thinks is the superior economist and human being, that is Keynes. And so it's sort of, you see, and Fiona came out, she actually said, you know, let's be honest, what did Hayek's influence on Thatcher actually do to the country compared to the good that Keynesism did for the world?

35:42Rory Stewart:Again, shout out to people who haven't listened to it. There's a wonderful interview that we did on Leading with the playwright that you're talking about with James Graham, which people should listen to. I also was very lucky to be able to go and see Arcadia and the West End with Tom Stoppard's play. It's Tom Stoppard who died recently. The most brilliant production. Funny, intellectual, beautifully staged, beautifully acted, incredibly charming, unexpected plot lines. So, yeah, huge tribute to that. Okay, we're giving a shout out. It's a de Gaulle film. De Gaulle film. Absolutely brilliant. God, they don't make them like him anymore.

36:16Rory Stewart:Okay, now let's take a break and then we'll come back from the break. And when we come back from the break, we will be talking about The King, both the allegations which were made by L. Spencer and also the summit on artificial intelligence, which I was lucky enough to be in this week. See you soon.

36:49between Britain and Russia. We assess, uh, Prime Minister... with high confidence it was... Russian. Holding the Russians accountable is World War III. They took down a British passenger jet containing 350 people. Man in the Kremlin is playing, Alex. You've got to ask yourself, do you want to play or not? You're the Prime Minister. You've done... nothing! Hey! We would need to understand the policy context. All the relevant context will be structured as a framework today. And disseminated into an operation order. Or frago. A frago that says to... kill the president of Russia. Yes. New from Gaulhanger.

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38:21Welcome back to The Restless Politics with me, Rory Stewart. And me, Alistair Campbell. Rory, I know you're gagging to talk about the King's views on artificial intelligence, but may I suggest that so far as the public, there does seem to be a lot of interest in this book by Charles Spencer, which I see has gone, surprise, surprise, straight to number one in the Amazon lists. Very annoying that it's bringing it out three weeks ahead of my own book, Percivillance, cadoganhall.com for tickets for the launch. And the Mooch as well, whose book is flying. So to summarize what Charles Spencer is saying, he's essentially claiming that the king, then the Prince of Wales, said to him that Diana would soon be forgotten and he also said that the king was giddily excited about what was going on and needless to say they are the bits that have been serialized in a newspaper I believe it's called the Daily Fail that is serializing the book and the book has had massive publicity and has gone straight to number one I mean I was very very involved in that period of the funeral, the death of Princess Diana and the days that followed.

39:37And I was aware because of the meetings, there were members of the Spencer family team, as it were, who came to all the meetings where we discussed all this. And there were tensions. There's no doubt about that. There were tensions. But I have to say, in defense of your friend, the King, who was then the Prince of Wales, anything I heard or sensed about his posture on the whole thing was completely at odds of this sense of, what did you say, giddiness and excitement and saying that she'll soon be forgotten and all that. I just didn't have any sense of that at all. Now, that being said, I'm sure they were having direct conversations as well, to which I was not remotely privy.

40:17I'm imagining the king is pretty pissed off with that. I think the first thing is that I've never seen him ever behave in that kind of way. It just doesn't sit with his character. And I think that was my sense talking to people who've known him all their lives is they just don't recognize that. So I don't believe it. Now, I also am very interested in memory. I think I've told you before, I'm still mesmerized by this study that was done where they interviewed people on 9-11 and then the same group of people every year for the next 20 years. When they first interviewed them, this is ordinary members of the public, they say, I was in my kitchen in Connecticut, I didn't hear about it for a couple of hours.

41:0220 years on, almost everybody says they were in Manhattan and saw the buildings come down. Yeah, including Donald Trump. And when you show them the video of what they said 20 years ago, they say, no, no, that can't be right. That's AI. That's fake. These are normal humans. These are not

41:16Rory Stewart:politicians trying to bluff. Our memories are unbelievably weird. And if you go back over, whatever this is, almost 30 years, it's a really interesting question about why he's doing it after 30 years, why it's still so central for 30 years. So I can absolutely believe that Charles Spencer believes this, I also just don't think it's true. The thing about memory is fascinating because that was one of the most extraordinary weeks of my life. But if I didn't have my diaries, I don't think I'd remember that much of it. And now when I read my diaries, I don't remember most of it. Spencer says he didn't write anything down, but he told people at the time and all this kind of thing.

41:57Rory Stewart:So no, I think it's very weird. I think you must have had this experience because you're such a diary keeper of going back and then reading a diary and be like, whoa. Yeah, totally. No, I completely get that. So I think what he's doing probably is either, look, he's a pretty wealthy guy, isn't he? Incredibly wealthy. I'm not sure he needs. I believe he's just. People say he's doing it for money for the book. No, no, I believe, you know, there's just been another very successful sale of a couple of fields some miles from his house. It's just raked in a few more million. Yeah. So I don't think it's that, but I think there is a, yeah, sense of revenge.

42:28I also thought it was very interesting that he allied himself so closely in talking about the book with Harry and Meghan and Diana and this idea that the media are a kind of, you know, real enemy. But look, I've met Charles Spencer a few times, and I spoke, he has this, I don't know if he still does it, but he has a book festival at Althorp, and I've been at it, and I stayed there. And I find him perfectly sort of charming and clever and quite funny and interesting. And absolutely, he does feel, I think, that the media were largely responsible for her death. And he feels that the royal family didn't treat her well.

43:10I think both of those things are clear. I think if I knew something or I was holding on to something as quite as dramatic as Charles, who let's not forget was the father of the two boys that Diana brought into the world, one of whom would be the future king. I just I think if you've heard that him saying those things I'm not sure you sit on them for 30 years um and and he says he sort of talked to people at the time and okay people can have a circle of trust but that sort of stuff I think if it's that dramatic it kind of gets out it's it's it's I thought it was very disturbing and of course it for me the the sadness was that this has all come at the same time that the king was doing this big summit that I was lucky enough to at Dumfries House on AI.

43:58It was pretty amazing. If you want to see an example of the King doing impressive stuff, there was that speech, which I think you write about in Persevillians very well, the Trump speech. But this was - Oh, the Charles speech to Trump. To Trump. Yeah. I think you've analyzed that very well. I think you put that up with Carney's speech, it's one of the great speeches of the year. This AI summit was very interesting in another way. Firstly, timing, unbelievable. I mean, this happened just at the moment when Hugging Face have blown up, when the big AI companies are talking about safety, when even the Lib Dems in their conference have woken up and made it.

44:32Rory Stewart:The central piece of Ed Davies' speech was about AI in his conference. So absolutely of the moment. Secondly, he was able not just to get the great titans of AI, Jensen Huang, who runs the biggest company in the world, Nvidia, this$5 trillion company, Sir Demis Vassabes. But astonishingly, they sat at that table throughout the entire day right into the evening, contributing to the conversation. It wasn't, they turn up for half an hour, jet off, which is what you normally get in these kinds of things. And even in Davos, nobody sits at the table throughout the day, right? Next thing, he managed to get the Chinese there.

45:06Rory Stewart:So Xi Jinping sent, I think it's the Dean of Tsinghua University, the greatest technical university in China was there at the table at exactly the time when everyone's saying, well, the problem is you'll never get the US and Chinese to agree, the Chinese aren't interested. business. He actually sat him there. And then the final thing is the UK government, because suddenly it was an opportunity for the most senior figures at every level of the UK government, including senior civil servants and the AI minister, to be able to spend hours with these guys in a way that would have been very difficult to do otherwise.

45:36Rory Stewart:And the conclusion of it, they got to the idea that there needs to be independent verification of these systems. They absolutely got to international cooperation requires China. And this has then been followed this week was Scott Besson, US Treasury Secretary saying he's now setting up a working group with China for the Trump Xi Jinping summit on AI. Now, Trump remains the big spoiler here because he says the whole thing's a hoax. There's no need for any safety regulation at exactly the moment when OpenAI and Anthropoc are terrified. Also, at the summit were a couple of people. We've gotten our mini series on existential risk.

46:14Yuval Noah Harari was there, Toby Ord was there making their arguments about why they're worried and i encourage people maybe to listen to that stuff and if you did you leave it because i've been very interested in seeing your sort of journey of development on this on this issue over quite a few years now because i remember you right at the start you were saying this is the most important thing happening in our world and in the future etc did that meeting and that day totally immersed in it in the way that you were did it leave you more or less worried, more or less skeptical? What was your own take out?

46:51I think always more worried. Every time I do anything, it's more worried. But it's more worried in this contradictory way, which is it is the hinge technology that is going to underpin everything in our lives. It's going to be right at the heart of our businesses in Britain, of the NHS, of our defense and security. And we will be reliant at the moment on a US and Chinese stack, which is an unbelievable dependency and vulnerability, and we need to work out how to get out of that. And at the same time, everything that makes these models powerful also makes them very dangerous. Because all the benefits of them are around autonomy, getting humans out of the loop.

47:26And the more humans you get out of the loop, the more responsibility the AI has, and everything the AI does positive, it can do negative. I mean, of which probably the most dramatic is biosecurity risks. Yes, it can potentially solve cancer, but it can also

47:41Rory Stewart:create viruses. And that's before you get on to what Yuval was talking about in this interview we've just put out on the - Which is pretty terrifying. Pretty terrifying, which is all about super intelligence. And the really interesting thing, which is of course where Trump comes in, it's the first time I really understood Trump's position. I mean, trying to understand why on earth is he against this? And we were saying he's just trying to make money. Well, maybe part of it. I think he's also instinctively anti-regulation. But I was also reminded there that very senior figures are telling him there's nothing to worry about.

48:12Rory Stewart:So certainly David Sachs is AI advisor, Mark Andreessen, who's the investor. But Jensen Huang also comes pretty close to saying, nothing to see here, there's no real risk of this stuff, let's go, let's roll. And that anyone trying to talk about safety is doing something called regulatory capture. In other words, they're just trying to exclude small startup AI companies and they're all bullshitting. Which is easy to believe given the way that they've operated as businesses over time. Which is why Trump will be pulled into this narrative. But it's very dangerous because these companies, I've never known any company in the world about to launch a product saying, my product is unbelievably dangerous.

48:48Rory Stewart:I mean, I would take that seriously. I can't see an obvious financial interest in people about to launch trillion dollar companies saying, I don't trust my product. It can get out of control. It can cause mayhem. It's a 20 % chance it could end the world. There we go. On a cheerio note, how was my friend Finley the Piper? Finley the Piper was there. So we had this amazing thing. That was also the amazing piece. That's how I found out you were there, by the way. When you got all these grandees of Anthropoc, OpenAI, NVIDIA, et cetera, Google Gemini there in the room. And then you have this incredible Piper, incredible drummer.

49:26Rory Stewart:I mean, of course, quite loud. We're in a small room and down for his house right up and personal with the pipes. And of course, I was very struck by the Dean of Sinh Hoa, who was being very polite, but he looked like a visitor from another planet looking at a strange cultural event as the pipes and the drums were hammering around. That's what it's like. It reminds me of Mandela when he was at Chogham in Edinburgh, and there was this display of Scottish culture and all the pipes and the drums and the dancing. And he said, I'm not sure these people are ready for independence. No, really?

50:03Rory Stewart:That's a great line. Let me just finish with a final tribute to the team that put this together because of course the king made it possible, but the team that spotted this opportunity and put Britain right back in the center, back to this AI Safety Institute, the Bletchley Summit that Rishi Sunak put together all the way through to this. I think it is Britain showing again and again that we may be a distant third, but we're definitely, if you're getting behind US and China, it's Britain still matters in AI. Right. Well, excellent. Let's close there. Then in question time tomorrow, we're going to talk about Germany.

50:37And we're also going to talk about rural Britain and a lot of the challenges that they're facing. So we'll see you then. See you then. Bye-bye.

From the publisher

As Burnham meets Trump face-to-face for the first time at the UN General Assembly, will he adopt Mark Carney’s or Keir Starmer’s approach to dealing with the US President? With Carney receiving a standing ovation in the European Parliament and championing “deep cooperation” between Europe and Canada, is Britain in danger of being outflanked in its relationship with the continent? Where do Rory and Alastair stand on the allegations made by Princess Diana's brother, Earl Spencer, about the King?

Join Rory and Alastair as they answer all these questions and more.

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