Claude Opus 4.6 vs GPT-5.3 Codex: Live Build, Clear Winner

17:57unknown host:let's see oh wait actually you know what I do want to create a new folder for this

18:01Morgan Linton:but we are keeping it real we're being objective neither myself or Morgan are affiliated with either well actually I don't know about you I'm not affiliated with graphic or open AI nope I love them both equally

18:16unknown host:how about that okay and I'm going to try to start them as close to the same time as I can enter go So, all right, they're going. Off to the races.

18:30Morgan Linton:So, what do you think is going to happen?

18:33unknown host:That's a great question. Well, I know right now, because I told Opus 4.5 to build using different teammates, it's going to do that. So, you can see here it says, I'll build a Polymark competitor by launching parallel research agents first, then synthesizing their finding to a comprehensive implementation planning code base. This is brand, brand new, right? Like if I did this with Opus yesterday, wouldn't be possible. That's kind of the difference here is that the way that Codex is working is the way things have kind of always worked, right? So if you see, this is like the individual person, right?

19:15unknown host:It's not saying, okay, I'm going to launch all these different agents and compare what they say. It's like, okay, I'm going to inspect the workspace. This is your, you know, really detail oriented, really senior, like founding engineer, like that example gave, right? Whereas over here, you can see it's already launched these agents and now it wants to do web searches and I'm going to let it do that. So multiple agents were asking to do web searches. So now, now launching all four research agents in parallel. So this is off and I've got, you know, my technical architecture agent. I've got this other agent that these are both doing web searches right now.

19:54unknown host:So one is looking at like prediction market order book matching engine architecture. So this one's learning about engine architecture for prediction markets. This one's looking at polymarket, how it works, barnyard predictive market mechanics. And then I've got the UX design is doing some design research. And then we've got some test research. Okay, now it's going to go to polymarket. And let's really hope the polymarket doesn't block it because that'll make things harder for it. Meanwhile, over here, this has discovered codex has figured out the repo is empty. So it's going to scaffold it from scratch.

20:28unknown host:And it is starting to, I'm now wiring the core market math and trading engine. So it's interesting, right? So you've got codex is out here building and is like building the engine, with Opus 4.6, it still has agents out there doing research work.

20:48Morgan Linton:You really start to see just how different they really are as they make progress.

20:55unknown host:Yeah. Like I said, I haven't tested it before, so we don't know how long it'll take each of these.

21:00Morgan Linton:Totally. Yeah, and I think one question I have is It's like, is one model better for being more of a beginner, non-technical live coder? Or, you know, it doesn't really matter.

21:16unknown host:Yeah, it's a good question. I mean, I think the fair answer would be probably Codex. Because Codex edged out Opus 4.6 a little bit on some of those coding benchmarks and is kind of known for writing better production code, probably codex in that way. At the same time, one of the downsides, and like I said, I could only do this in a totally balanced way because they're so different. At the same time for a vibe coder, knowing when to interject and stop codex and say, oh, wait, you're doing this this way. Can you instead look at doing it this way they're probably not going to know how to do that.

22:01unknown host:And so that's where maybe Opus 4.6 is better where you could say, okay, spin up four or five agents and let them work with each other. Yeah. Okay, Codex is done. All right. So Codex built a competitor to Polymarket in three minutes and 47 seconds.

22:22Morgan Linton:And to be clear, Polymarket's a multi-billion dollar company.

22:25unknown host:Yeah, I don't think this will work quite as well. Um, but, uh, but we'll see, let's see. So, um, let's just check out if it worked first. I'll let this keep running here. Um, so, you know, it'll tell you at the end here, it actually did the testing. So you can see it built a test suite. So it has an LMSR math unit test suite, an engine behavior unit test suite and an API integration, uh, test suite. And it passed with 10 out of 10 tests. As far as what it built, it has this core LMSR market maker engine. So coherent pricing, slippage, bound loss behavior, domain trending engine. It built a REST API router, which is kind of interesting because I didn't tell it that it would have to build obviously any of this in any way.

23:14unknown host:It figured out the architecture on its own. Clean responsive front end. All right, well, let's see. Let's see if it is actually. So let's go here. I'll let this keep running this has got these four agents just running away here and I'm in here I'm going to do npm test all right test 10 past 10 that looks good to me npm start all right it's running let's see okay here we go so So this looks like it has the ability. So let's, Greg, let's make you, we'll make you the first trader. All right. Say add. Okay. You got a thousand bucks.

24:05Morgan Linton:Okay.

24:06unknown host:There we go. Not bad. All right. What market do you want to create?

24:12Morgan Linton:Well, Bitcoin, I think as we speak, has crashed to what, 63 ,000 or something?

24:17unknown host:Something like that. Yeah.

24:18Morgan Linton:So I do like the, I mean, will BDC be above 110K by...

24:25unknown host:Yeah. Okay.

24:28Morgan Linton:By DESC 31, 2026. That's pretty good.

24:30unknown host:Yeah, okay.

24:30Morgan Linton:That's pretty good.

24:31unknown host:So let's... I mean, that's almost double. Yeah. That'd be pretty good.

24:37Morgan Linton:It depends. Depends when you bought it, you know? If you bought it at 125K, then...

24:43unknown host:Yeah.

24:44Morgan Linton:You're not so happy, but... Let's see.

24:47unknown host:So then I don't know. I don't even know what resolution criterion source would be. I mean, I think I know what it's getting at, but I guess you could say like, why don't we say use CoinMarket cap as the source and resolve by looking at the price on the last day of December, just before midnight, I guess.

25:16Morgan Linton:I guess like

25:19unknown host:the price of BTC yeah alright okay it looks like it's okay so we've got it now so we'll use CoinMarketCap okay so then you can do a yes 50 % so what do you think yes or no

25:38Morgan Linton:I mean this isn't financial advice this is just purely purposes but I think so So I think that.

25:47unknown host:All right. That's a yes for Greg. Buy. Let's see. How many shares you want to buy? You've got a thousand bucks.

25:56Morgan Linton:I want to put it all. I'll put it all.

25:59unknown host:I don't know how much it is per share. Let's see if it's a thousand, if that's right. Okay. Yeah. Okay. Trade executed. Okay. So, I mean, it seems like it built something, you know, as a prototype, relatively functional here. I guess that it actually has decremented. So, okay, 1 ,000 shares was not. That ended up being, you know, about$24 that you spent. So, you've got more money if you wanted to create another market. But it worked. It's not returning an error. It shows the volume here. Interesting. All right, so let's go back. Let's see. So far, so good with that, I'd say. Let's see what's going on here.

26:40unknown host:So, we've got, okay. So, first off, look at how many tokens. People have been talking about how token hungry Opus is. And it's very token hungry. Each one of these agents has used over 25 ,000 tokens. So let's see though. So they finished, right? The technical research around architecture is done. Prediction market research is done. The UX design research is done. The testing strategy is done. Now it's going to go and build. so it's writing the package JSON

27:17Morgan Linton:did you see the ad that Anthropic launched about ads

27:23unknown host:yes I watched them all they're hilarious although actually I guess Sam was not very happy about them today I saw a tweet from Sam that was less than happy so I found them hilarious but I also understand his side as well

27:38Morgan Linton:So basically, it seems like Anthropic is sort of anti-ads for now. And obviously, ChatGPT is going to be introducing ads.

27:47unknown host:Yes.

27:48Morgan Linton:And, you know, when I'm watching this and I'm seeing you're going through 25 ,000 tokens, 25 ,000 tokens, 25 ,000 tokens. Yeah. I'm like, yeah, of course, Anthropic doesn't really.

27:58unknown host:Yeah.

27:59Morgan Linton:Exactly. You know? Yeah.

28:02unknown host:Yeah. I mean, this is literally, I mean, if you add that all up, you're talking about over 100 ,000 tokens. used in doing this. So I think that's one of the very good things for investors in Anthropic is with agents and agents now being I think probably the new killer feature in Opus you're going to take whatever token usage and multiply it by the number of agents.

28:27Morgan Linton:Exactly. It's actually really smart and I wonder if that was the thinking they're like how can we get people to use more tokens oh, we'll just spin up agents and we'll design it like that? Or did they think, okay, how can we design a system that is best for the use case? And then they're like, okay, then we'll monetize it like this. I don't know.

28:48unknown host:Yeah, probably a combination of the two. I can tell you I've never used so many tokens in one day as today. So it's working.

28:57Morgan Linton:100 ,000 tokens is roughly how much in US dollars?

29:02unknown host:I don't know because I have a Claude Max plan. $200. Yeah, so I'm not paying. We're not seeing it hit any limits right now, right? So I'm not paying more than$200. I can tell you that.

29:16Morgan Linton:Yeah. My guess is it's, you know, we're talking like in the$200 Max plan, do you remember how many tokens you get approximately?

29:29unknown host:That's a good question. Let me fire up Claude and ask it. Let's see here. How many tokens do I get? Estimate. Let's see. Okay, so here you go. Estimate. So 45 million tokens per month of Sonnet. But let's see. What is your estimate for Opus 4.6? Let's see.

30:00Morgan Linton:It's like they don't really want you to know.

30:02unknown host:No, they're trying to make it a little harder. Okay. They're not even going to tell me, actually. They're just going to say, there's no public data. It's very new. Opus is roughly 5x more expensive. So then if it's 45 million, that's 5x. So 10 million is probably the answer about, right?

30:21Morgan Linton:So then if we're doing quick math, let's just say we spent 100 ,000 tokens, you know 100 ,000 divided by 5 million is you know we're going to spend

30:35unknown host:more than that because look at this we're now over 17 ,000 tokens on top of that in this next build okay so but still let's say you know even if we use a million tokens building a competitor to Polymarker right now we're still only using a tenth of what it but it can do that's not terrible

30:55Morgan Linton:No, I mean, it's$20, which is like the price of a cocktail in Miami.

31:00unknown host:Yeah, yeah, exactly. Yeah, yeah. So let's see. But now, as I say, I'm watching the tokens creep up. All right, so it's building the API routes now.

31:14Morgan Linton:I have a feeling this is going to be a better end result.

31:18unknown host:I was actually just going to say that. This feels, and then maybe it's just because there were four agents that were doing all the work beforehand and now it's doing the work. It feels like we're going to see something very different when we load what it builds.

31:35Morgan Linton:Yeah, I don't think we gave it any design, like visual design. Do you recommend for folks to just get the MVP out, play around with it on localhost, click some buttons and then update with the visual design from there?

31:55unknown host:That's a good question. I do like 50-50. Sometimes if I have something in mind, especially if I want something like on brand with something like suppose I'm building something that is going to be in the like open claw multi-book ecosystem, I would probably say, hey, I want to design a site that, you know, looks somewhat similar to or is inspired by, you know, open claw. dot AI and moltbook.com. Take a look at those sites and get inspiration. These models are great at doing stuff like that. I'm really excited to see what this is doing though. I think we're now like well over 200 ,000 tokens. They found what I could tell.

32:41unknown host:But we're not at 10 million.

32:43Morgan Linton:We're not hitting any limits. We don't have to take out second mortgages on our...

32:50unknown host:Yet. It's still going. I guess, you know, we can tell, like, here's an interesting thing in a comparison. Like, this is still going. Why don't we say, like, the design, because the design looked kind of bland to me, right?

33:06Morgan Linton:Yes, it did.

33:11unknown host:Can you spruce it up and make it look nicer? Because, like, we may as well have codecs working away, too, right?

33:19Morgan Linton:Yeah, so you didn't really give it any specific, it should look like square.com. No, no. We'll basically see if Codex, if 5.3 has a little bit of taste.

33:35unknown host:Yeah, yeah. So that's what it's saying now. It's saying, okay, I'll upgrade the visual system without changing functionality, stronger typography, richer color direction, better card hierarchy, and purposeful motion. I don't know what that means, but we'll find out. All right. Okay. So now it's editing. Index.html. It looks like it's going to add motion hover polish. Okay. Totally that. This current task for over 30 ,000 tokens building the front end UI. Okay. It's done. Yeah. Codex is fast, by the way. Right. I mean, that's pretty darn fast.

34:11Morgan Linton:Yeah.

34:12unknown host:So we should be able to just go here. It should have already automatically reloaded. Okay. All right.

34:19Morgan Linton:I mean, it's not that different. It's not that different. I think, can I try something?

34:28unknown host:Yeah, go for it.

34:29Morgan Linton:I'm going to say, I would say, okay, thank you, but this was a minor design refresh. I'm looking for a major one.

34:41unknown host:There you go, yeah. And then I'm going to say, pretend you are Jack Dorsey. And how would he design this website to be clean, elegant, and full of interesting interactions? Yeah, great. Yeah.

35:07Morgan Linton:Jack Dorsey for people who don't know co-founder of formerly known as Twitter and Square Block now he's a design guy I don't know he's the first guy who came to mind or first person who came to mind

35:22unknown host:yeah that's a good one that's a good prompt let's see so I'll do a full visual re-architect not an incremental tweak new layout language stronger typography monochrome first palette interesting interaction driven cars that's a okay you know what's interesting is it didn't i would have kind of hoped and maybe we you know we're not quite at agi yet i would kind of hope that it would say let me go find some art like if you told me that greg like hey morgan can you read it i would be like yeah let me go look at some articles about jack dorsey's design aesthetic exactly um i'm surprised it's not doing that Instead, it's going like, I am assuming it knows who Jack Dorsey is, although I don't know if it actually does.

36:09unknown host:It just seems like it's really just taking this part of your question and going, oh, okay, major refresh. I'll do that.

36:18Morgan Linton:Well, can't you ask it? Can't you say, do you know who Jack Dorsey is?

36:22unknown host:Let's see. I can actually, I'm supposed to be able to, in the middle, cut it off. So let me see. Yeah. Do you know who Jack Dorsey is? Let's see. Okay. So here we go. This is the midstream test. It's thinking about it. 43 ,000 tokens over here. Okay. Yes. Okay, here we go. Yes. Jack Dorsey is the co-founder of Twitter, form of the Doctrine Square. Okay. With a design style that's typically minimal, restraint, and interaction focused. Okay. All right. So, touche. It showed us.

37:01Morgan Linton:Yeah.

37:03unknown host:now here's the weird thing it looks like it's

37:05Morgan Linton:is it complete or do we have to say

37:07unknown host:complete like right when I was saying that are you done or did you stop because I asked a question

37:13Morgan Linton:yeah this is really interesting I will say like oh I pause when you ask the question the major redesign mostly

37:25unknown host:so that's weird so you ask a question it just stops but like so like yes of course continue. Okay.

37:35Morgan Linton:So that's actually some weird UX. Like it obviously should just continue after. Right?

37:40unknown host:Yeah. I would assume that it's such a weird thing because it said, yeah, if you want, I'll resume now.

37:47Morgan Linton:I will say, I do like that you can, in midstream, like kind of edit things. Yeah. Like that's how my brain works. Totally.

37:56unknown host:Yeah. Yeah. Truth is using a ton of tokens. It is amazing to see the detail. I mean, this should be a work of art, whatever cycle this comes off. All right, this is done. So now let's see, we can go back to this. And okay. I mean, I'm not blown away, but it's okay.

38:22Morgan Linton:Opinions become price in milliseconds. Trade conviction, not noise. Signal market is dying for fast. thesis iteration with transparent pricing. I mean, I would push it more, I think.

38:38unknown host:Yeah, I guess. I would say that's not the Jack Dorsey I know. I don't know Jack Dorsey.

38:53Morgan Linton:I was looking for a Caps Lock major upgrade. Uh, that, that might mean, um, way more copy, way more images, way more storytelling. Yeah, exactly. Et cetera, et cetera. Yeah.

39:15unknown host:I'll just say seriously, take your time. Go nuts.

39:19Morgan Linton:Yeah.

39:20unknown host:What are credits?

39:23Morgan Linton:Famous last words, Morgan.

39:24unknown host:I know, right? It's like, oh, perfect. Okay. that's like a signal within the opening headquarters like we finally got someone

39:30Morgan Linton:totally it's a whale alright so Opus has finished I have no idea

39:36unknown host:how many credits I've used but probably actually let me ask it how many tokens in total did you use to put all of this together including the four agents and then we can Opus is using tokens to answer this okay Okay. Doesn't know. Let's see. Okay, here we go. Okay, it's estimating. It actually doesn't know, which is weird, because it should know. Although, I wonder if I can actually do slash cost. Oh, here we go. Yeah, okay. Oh, it doesn't. Okay, no. No need to monitor cost. Okay, so they really don't want you to know. Okay, it's guessing 150 ,000 to 250 ,000 tokens total.

40:22Morgan Linton:Yeah, that's probably right.

40:24unknown host:Okay, sure. Yeah. Okay, so here's what it's done. So first off, one really interesting thing here is, you know, Codex created 10 tests, right? Opus created 96 tests. So definitely a lot more detail on the testing side. And it's called it Forecast, whereas Codex called it Signal Market. So different names. A Polymark competitor is built and verified. Here's what each team member delivered. So the architecture technical lead decided modular monolith, Next.js 14 app router, central limit order book, database schema, Russell API. Okay, the prediction market domain expert, binary yes no market where yes no is always a dollar.

41:14unknown host:Okay. Seated markets across crypto politics. Okay, the UX design lead, dark mode trading platform. pages it is a green for yes red for no okay testing qa lead did order book tests okay so here's the tests are breaking down order book tests matching engine okay all right npm run to start the app so let's go in here and oh interesting okay i don't want to say anything

41:47Morgan Linton:actually i've already given to him what's your initial take i mean my hello jack dorsey you know what i'm saying like this is this is what i expected it to look like when we pushed codex yeah me too this looks really clean what happens when you hover over uh oh yeah look at that yeah it's got hover states hover state yeah um it's obviously got it organized like when i go sports

42:16unknown host:It's, you know, will the next two will have over 120 million viewers? Will AI pass the Turing test by 2027? Will a movie preserve a three? It's got stuff in there, yeah. Yeah, this doesn't even,

42:28Morgan Linton:it doesn't feel like an MVP.

42:30unknown host:Yeah, this is pretty wild actually. And it created some stuff, you know, that we never talked to it about, right? Like a leaderboard, which it's already populated with some initial stuff. Portfolio section, yeah. Interesting. So let's see now. So, I mean, I'm more impressed with the, it was maybe worth the 150 ,000, 250 ,000 tokens. Feeling better about it. Will SpaceX land humans on Mars before 2030? Only 8 % of things, huh? Oh yeah, look at this actually. Whoa.

43:05Morgan Linton:This is insane, bro.

43:06unknown host:That's clean.

43:08Morgan Linton:That's clean.

43:09unknown host:I wasn't expecting to click in and actually get a well-designed page like this. Huh. so if I were to do that I have to sign in a tray I don't know if I'm going to be able to sign in because I haven't set anything up let me just check

43:21Morgan Linton:well you can sign up it says don't have an account

43:25unknown host:oh yeah sign up I don't know if it gets all connected though let's see though alright I'm snagging you know what actually I'm going to take the username Greg I'll steal your username alright let's see okay so yeah it's probably because I was going to say the database isn't wired up yet so I'm not I'm not surprised that I would actually have to do. I wasn't expecting to do that. But I get it. I mean, it's clean. This is pretty neat. Yep. Yeah. All right, let's see. So then, can this, all right, we've given, I don't know about you, but this is the last chance I'm going to give Codex on the design side.

44:02unknown host:It's out of opportunities here. So, oh, here, it's funny, though. In the end, it kind of, it's acting a little bit like data from Star Trek. Yeah. When you question, what are credits? In this context, credits usually means... That's quite it. That's good, though. Okay, so let's see. Let's take a look and see. All right, here we go. The new version of Signal Market.

44:26Morgan Linton:Boom. Oh.

44:28unknown host:Okay. This is getting a little bit interesting. Let's see here. Read the manifesto.

44:36Morgan Linton:Yeah, I mean, I don't hate it.

44:39unknown host:It's definitely better. Yeah. I mean, it's got a lot going on. Yeah.

44:47Morgan Linton:But it's different. Terminal. It's different than any sort of prediction market app I've seen from a UX perspective. I just feel like this is just so clean, though.

45:03unknown host:This is so good. It's so fast. Yeah. I mean, I would say, like I said, I'm not going to say which one is, It's not that Opus is better than Codex or vice versa, but I would say in this test, Opus won.

45:16Morgan Linton:Yeah, in this test, Opus won.

45:18unknown host:Yeah.

45:19Morgan Linton:That's just the truth. Yeah, yeah.

45:22unknown host:But we could give it another, I mean, you know, you never know. I think that what's interesting about this is, I mean, Codex built it like, I don't know how much faster, we can look at the timing on this video, but like 20 times faster or something, right? Yeah, yeah. Yeah.

45:40Morgan Linton:Well, anything else you wanted to cover? I don't think we'll have time to do another example, but anything else you wanted to cover that you want to leave people with?

45:49unknown host:Yeah. Let me see if there is anything else in here. I covered the adaptive thinking. Oh, I guess just on the orchestration, I would say this is a feature I'm probably the most excited about with Opus. And clearly we saw in this example it working really well. Just make sure to look at the documentation. It's all in the docs now. And it gives some examples as well because it has this idea of like compare with subagents of like context and communication and coordination and kind of breaks this down. And then it has like a sample prompt, more of the details on the display mode. There's a lot of other stuff that I didn't go into there.

46:31unknown host:That's probably what I would leave people with because I think a lot of people are going to want to dive in and use agents with Opus 4.6 and they've got pretty good details on all the little tweaks that you can make with it.

46:45Morgan Linton:Amazing. Well, Morgan, I can't thank you enough for coming on. I hope people love this episode. I love talking to you.

46:54unknown host:Thank you for having me, Greg. It's a total honor.

46:58Morgan Linton:Yeah, it's just, I love how clearly you communicate and to technical people, but also non-technical people. And you're criminally under-followed, so I'm going to include links where you can find Morgan and follow him on X. He talks a lot about vibe coding over there. And Morgan, anything else you want to, places that you want to leave people to go and check you out?

47:25unknown host:Yeah, I mean, I'm the co-founder and CTO of Bold Metrics. I'll just give a little plug for us. We have AI technology that's used by apparel brands and retailers. So if you're shopping online and want to find the right size, you see a find my size button. We a lot of times power that and have really powerful machine learning models that update and adapt over time to help people find the right size and give lots of really interesting data to lots of amazing brands and retailers that you probably all know and love. And then me and my team, you know, we're using all of this tooling. Like I had a meeting with my team this morning about Opus 4.6 and Codex.

48:06unknown host:And I've given everybody access to both of these. And I actually have multiple teams of mine that are trying current things we're working on and are actually testing with each to see which performs better. So, you know, the one thing I encourage all engineering teams to do is like, and engineering leaders to do is like, let your teams loose with this stuff. Let them try it. some of this stuff is really cutting edge and really performing and gives us the opportunity to do better, more creative work.

48:34Morgan Linton:Yeah, stop listening to us right now. Yeah, exactly. Go and get us. X out of this YouTube or Spotify link, but actually give us a like, a comment, and subscribe. Let us know if you like this episode. Morgan, thanks again for coming on the show. This was a lot of fun. See you next time.

48:52unknown host:Greg, thank you so much. Total honor.