Bromance but for how long? Trump and Burnham's first call

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1:19I'm Katie Balls, and as well as my weekly chat with Jerry Baker, I'm also on Times Radio with Hugo Rifkin. every Tuesday just after 12.30pm. So here's this week's conversation.

1:33Let's begin with how Washington is reacting to Andy Burnham's arrival in Downing Street. Burnham spoke with Donald Trump yesterday. The readout from Downing Street said that he congratulated the president for hosting the World Cup. He invited him to Manchester and he told him about his plans for ensuring good growth in every postcode. Do we know, Katie, what Donald Trump made of all that? we do because Donald Trump did not um as his custom go through an official White House readout but instead took um in true Donald Trump style to truth social to share his thoughts and it was a pretty positive post um I think to be fair he ultimately said that he had a good conversation with Andy Burnham um he said that Andy Burnham had a very tough job ahead of it ahead of him but he um believed that Andy Burnham could do it and America was here to help him so I think probably from a team Burnham perspective it couldn't have gone too much better in terms of the official White House reaction from the man himself of course I think the slight issue is what Donald Trump thinks is helping a world leader isn't always what they might think is helping all the electorate does so and Donald Trump also if we think about his posts for example on Sunday saying congratulating Andy Burnham on changes to policies on gas and oil.

2:51It's not clear that those policies are actually about to be announced by the Labour government to the extent that Donald Trump thinks they are. So I think it was a good start. I think with Donald Trump, we know that he changes his opinions of leaders quite regularly and probably the real test. While he is a little bit vibes, and I can understand why Andy Burnham's personality might work a bit in that environment. For example, thinking about how Trump got on with Mandani, the New York Democratic socialist mayor, even though on paper they shouldn't. I think the real issues are going to come down to some issues on defence, energy and so forth.

3:27Yeah, well, we'll come to them in a moment. But how likely is it, do we think, that he's going to visit Manchester? It doesn't strike me as very likely. So it sounded unlikely yesterday when we had the initial unofficial redire because obviously we knew the call was happening because Andy Burnham had said that he was going to prioritise calls with the US president and with Ukrainian leader Zelensky as his first calls. So everyone is expecting him. I also think it's interesting. I mean, in a way, you would expect America to be the first call, but just because some of the briefings coming from the Burnham camp about how he's going to focus less on foreign affairs and almost implying that they want to take, that they thought Kyrgyzstan was too deferential in his relationship with the US that he still went for America first.

4:12But obviously everyone was trying to find out, you know, how the call happened and then what was said. And the first line came from Politico, which was this line saying that he'd invited him to Manchester. So then I started messaging around saying, you know, is this the case and to people on both sides of the pond? And what came back was, yes, but there's a pre-existing invite for the US president to come to Manchester because the G20 is being held in Manchester in 2027. Now, this was a decision I understand was made by Keir Starmer months ago, but no one knew the location was Manchester publicly, they hadn't announced it had been kept a secret.

4:47So I think in a way, it has offered Andy Burnham a way to potentially get Donald Trump to Manchester. So of course, their bromance could be so strong that Donald Trump feels a need to visit Manchester before next year. But I think if there was a place to do it, it is when the G20 comes. Now, Trump doesn't always go. Sometimes he might send, for example, Marco Rubio instead. But that would be the natural route and one the US side, I understand, are considering to get Trump to the city that he once called a tap. OK. Look, they also talked, we know, about the situation in the Middle East. You'd think that there might be some White House reservations about Ed Miliband as foreign secretary, not just because he loved wind turbines, but also because of his view on foreign affairs.

5:33And sooner or later, you'd have thought there is going to be some tension over whether or not Britain backs Donald Trump in whatever he wants to do next in the Middle East. What are we expecting there? How do we think that relationship is going to develop? Yeah, certainly. I think when we're thinking about, you know, warm words, good beginning, you know, from the number 10 perspective. But exactly that, you know, we know that where the Keir Starmer-Donald Trump relationship really soured. And this was, you know, the Donald Trump who would praise how much he liked to kiss Starmer's wife and his accent.

6:04But the point where there was signs of tension, but when it really broke, that was on the use of bases when it came to the Iran war, which then went that Trump doubled down even further on things like the Chagos Islands, because it all linked back to this. I think Ed Miliband as Foreign Secretary is going to be a controversial choice. I think right now, publicly, I think the US side is designed to be a good ally as they see it and try and welcome Andy Burnham. But certainly in advance, there's a story Stephen Swinford and I did a few weeks ago, which was US officials warning that they were concerned about Ed Miliband becoming Chancellor.

6:42Now, I think the same officials had some concerns about Ed Miliband becoming foreign secretary. Perhaps foreign secretary is less bad for them than chancellor, but the same concerns remain, which is effectively, I think that Ed Miliband, his energy policy, you might say, well, what does that even have to do with being foreign secretary? He's no longer in charge of energy policy. and as Chancellor that was certainly a US concern but the US perspective is effectively they link the UK not having a strong enough economy to not being a strong enough ally they think we need to be a stronger ally and therefore they do and they link that directly partly to the UK's energy policy and the net zero policy oil and gas as we know the Trump Trump is focused on so that means Ed Miliband is already in their radar we know he's had meeting well he had one meeting with the US ambassador Warren Stevens, and they didn't have a second, as the US ambassador told me at the Times CEO earlier this year.

7:38And then I think you look at Ed Miliband's disposition, and I think it could be potentially a rocky ride. And one thing I think to look out for is Marco Rubio, who is now going to be Ed Miliband's counterpart. He's just started a campaign against the ICC, the International Criminal Court, talking about the problem of it, the fact they don't take these rulings seriously, how it's become a show called all these things and that started about a week or so ago in full swing i think ed milliband is seen as someone who supports that as the uk government does but particularly does and the fact that in his first list of things that he plans to do he talks about you know protecting international law um at a time when he i think you think back to a donald trump interview uh maybe last year when he was asked you know what controls you international is like nothing.

8:27You can just start to see a little bit of a collision course early on. Yeah, I think so. Look, we understand that the Trump administration has just announced 50 % tariffs on Canadian goods. I must admit, it's all forgotten about tariffs. Why has this happened? How is it being justified by the White House? What's this all about? Well, we know that when it comes to the countries that, I suppose not the countries or leaders that Trump falls out with because the list is ever-changing. Think about how Maloney has gone from Trump whisperer to what he's fallen out with to a little bit better now. But on the consistent naughty list, Mark Carney and Canada are pretty high up.

9:01And for example, you hear about the 51st state on Canada, but it's taken a turn for the worst recently, partly because you had a situation where you've had the wildfires in the US. And Trump has blamed that on Canada, saying, you know, Canada needs to get their house in order because wildfires there are becoming a problem over in the US. This led to mixed messages from the US side because you had some, I think you had dipped the mats for Trump saying, oh, we're not blaming Canada. And then the Trump tree socially arrives. And it turns out the US president does. But he signed three proclamations imposing this new 50 % tariff that's not scheduled to take effect for another 30 days.

9:42And it's ultimately a long running trade dispute between the two sides. the specific one the specific reason is going back to a tariff act of 1930 but it ultimately comes down to the fact that Trump believes America is getting a bad deal and is trying to use force to do that and I think how Mark Carney responds which so far is to say this is preposterous, Canada will hold its own. I think if you do tariff this drastic it is uncomfortable for both sides and of course the question is does the consumer end up paying in the end. What additional products are being taxed? Or is it all of them? So vehicles, alcohol, dairy, there's a mix in terms of the product.

10:27Pretty significant areas, though. Absolutely. Yeah. No, no, exactly. If this does go through, again, there's obviously a nickname for Donald Trump, which is Taco, which is Trump always trickens out. And he doesn't like this nickname. But the origins, even though people use it on their Iran war, the origins of this nickname were tariffs, because obviously you go back to Liberation Day, as he called it, and these big announcements, and then the markets didn't take it very well. And eventually there was big efforts behind the scenes to walk back some of these drastic tariffs. So it really became a US-China thing by the end of it.

11:02So I think there's always a little bit of scepticism, which is by the time we hit 30 days, is he going to really go through this? Will some compromise be reached? But of course, if he does, and I think, as I say, that's going to be felt by both countries. And I think it's the type of thing where, you know, you do potentially have American consumers feeling this as well as Canadians. Look, finally, Katie, the Vice President J.D. Vance and his wife have welcomed their fourth baby. They're the first sitting second couple to do this in 150 years. What can you tell us? Yes, so this is, I suppose, happy news for the Vice President and the Trump administration.

11:41and donald trump has ever likes to be the person to break news so while he didn't break the news of the actual birth he did manage to get the photo up first of the fourth edition to the vance family i think it's probably a bit of a reminder of just how young jd vance is if you think um historically um vice presidents presidents we obviously have very old presidents at the moment and trump having recently turned 80 only the second president to do so in office after joe Biden. And then you have J.D. Vance at 41, which is a reminder when you think about his future political ambitions that he actually has a lot of time.

12:20Most would think, you know, if he didn't get the nomination for 2028, he had perhaps missed his shot. And, you know, in terms of political cycles, you never quite know when all the factors are going to come. Maybe that's the case. But, you know, his career by political standards is really in its youth. I mean, he was only a senator for about a year. And I think, I suppose, the other thing going around is because he had this fourth child, now they're a bigger family. There's been some stories about how he's stressing out the Secret Service by, you know, using a helicopter to take one of his sons to golf courses and, you know, implying that he's being a bit of a headache.

12:58But I think it also speaks to the Secret Service and not used to having, you know, a family with very young children trying to lead a semi-normal life while also being vice president. And to that, there's also talk that they may be getting a house in Middleburg, which is this quite fancy town in Virginia near to Washington, D.C., which I once went to and thought was very, you know, I was really venturing out of D.C. and a woman told me in a pub, welcome to the most English town in America. Okay, I'll have to visit and see. Katie Bowles, thank you very much indeed. Katie is Washington editor at The Times and The Sunday Times.

13:32Always good to speak to Katie.

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