Is America past peak Trump?

0:05Welcome to the State of It USA, the podcast for the world's sanest take on US politics. Today, are the Republicans heading for electoral disaster? What's Marco Rubio's plan as he heads to Europe? And we'll talk about the influence of Nick Frantes. I'm Katie Balls, Washington editor of The Times and Sunday Times, and I'm joined by Gerry Baker. Hi, Katie. Hi, everybody. I'm Gerry Baker, editor at large of The Wall Street Journal, joining you here from New York City, also columnist for The Times. Yeah, well, let's get straight into it, Katie. Interesting week. I'm a big fan of American football. So I watched the Super Bowl, which was one of the most boring Super Bowls I think I've ever seen, completely dominated by one side.

0:48But of course, the football took second place to the halftime show, as it often does. Yeah, we have a strange situation where, obviously, recently was a resident of the UK, where the government is close to falling, huge debate in the aftermath of the Epstein files. And yet it feels that what America has been most hysterical about over the past couple of days is Bad Bunny and whether or not he should have had his halftime show to the point there was a counter movement by Turning Point USA, the foundation, the organisation started by the late Charlie Kirk with Kid Rock, which had several million views.

1:21Bad Bunny had more. You would expect it because he was on TV. Have we learned anything at all from this incident about the future of the American right or left, Jerry, or should we just move on? You know, it was a fairly ridiculous episode, really. Why does every disagreement in America turn into a kind of existential struggle for the soul of the nation? It's just, you know, look, Bad Bunny, not my cup of tea, not my demographic. I watched it, watched the game with my daughters, all of whom love Bad Bunny and really enjoyed it and pointed out to me when I was kind of grumbling about why do I have to sit through this, that he is the biggest recording star in the world right now and very popular among a lot of young Americans.

1:59It was just a controversy did say something about, But to be honest with you, sometimes the kind of wild, crazy extremism about these culture wars and particularly among those on the right to, you know, ridiculously sort of somehow see an all Spanish halftime show at a major cultural event as somehow a threat to to America's culture. It was just incredibly silly and, again, another incredibly disturbing example of just how rancorous these discussions over ultimately meaningless events have become. Just finally on the show, is Kid Rock your cup of tea? Nope, absolutely not. The Kid Rock thing, just we should probably point out, was that was the there was a kind of counter-programming thing done by, as you say, the Charlie Kirk Turning Point USA people who put on this alternative halftime show during halftime in the Super Bowl featuring Kid Rock.

2:55But, you know, the other thing, Katie, about Kid Rock, as various people pointed out, is Kid Rock is a man who's had hit songs about how he likes underage girls. So another example of just the kind of absurdity of the hypocrisy of so many of these people. Yeah, having been to Turning Point events and so forth, there is a sense on the American right that, you know, change the culture of the country. That's how you change things permanently. And often, I think I remember being at a Turning Point event in Florida that Charlie Kirk was speaking at. This is before his assassination. and on stage there was a moment when they said you know we're the right has become cool was summarizing what they thought but kid rock doesn't quite scream the future or current in a way that bad bunny does interestingly nikki minaj is the new prize crown jewel of the trump administration and because they have you know a relatively young woman uh rapper who they can point to to say you you know, look at us, things are changing.

3:52But I don't think Kid Rock just does that. But let's look now to what is really dominating conversations more seriously this week. And it does speak, I think, a little bit to how some Republicans were saying, can the other Republicans stop slagging off Bad Bunny? Because this isn't the fight to have. There is a real sense at the moment, I think, that Donald Trump is draining popularity and fast ahead of some very difficult midterms. Can you talk us through some of the polling that's most caught your eye this week? I just think, Katie, we've talked a little bit about this before, but it is worth reminding ourselves that for all the kind of storm and drung around Trump and some of the crazy stuff he's done and how unpopular he is in the rest of the world, we know how unpopular he is in Britain and Europe, what he's doing is really unpopular here in the United States.

4:39There have been some polls in the last week that basically show that his approval rating is in the high 30 percent. For an incumbent president, that's an astonishingly low number. It's the lowest number that he's had in. Some polls are giving him the lowest number he's had in either of his two terms in office. People give him low marks on the economy. Again, that's obviously the concern about affordability, the cost of living, which people are still very upset about. They give him low marks on foreign policy. Hardly surprising. Nobody wants to invade Greenland. Nobody really likes making an enemy of Canada.

5:12They give him low marks on immigration now. Again, we've talked a little bit about this, but the scenes on the streets of Minneapolis or elsewhere, people are not happy with it. They wanted Trump to crack down on illegal immigration and they were happy with that. They don't like some of the tactics. So he's incredibly unpopular, again, recording some of the lowest numbers ever. one of the most interesting polls in the last week, Katie, one of the organisations, although they all show the same thing, is his support among young voters, which was a striking thing about Trump. Remember, typically here, over a long period of time, younger voters have tended to vote towards the left, tended to vote Democratic.

5:49The election last year, Trump did not only did so well with, sorry, not last year, 24, did very well with some of these improbable groups that Republicans have not fared well with, relatively well among black voters, very well among Hispanic voters, and remarkably well, high levels of support among Gen Z, as they call them, the 18 to 29. His numbers among those people, though, have collapsed. I mean, collapsed by much more than among other groups. They are particularly unhappy, I think, with some of the immigration, some of the stuff they've seen on immigration. I think they're also really worried about the economy.

6:22I think that is a big, growing concern. Jobs are drying up. Actually, we had some job numbers this Wednesday morning, which were not bad. So sort of a slight counter to the narrative there. But they are generally concerned about what AI is doing to jobs. They're concerned about the cost of living. They can't afford to live in these places. And I think it's really, you know, we are seeing a real demographic transformation here that is a real threat to Republicans. And I don't know if you saw, if you did, but there was a very interesting Democratic primary election in a New Jersey race last week.

6:56And the voters there chose a very, very left wing candidate in the Democratic primary. So there is something, you know, again, I don't want to overstate it. You're absolutely right, Kayleigh. He's got three years to go. Things can change. The midterms are coming up. But as it stands, the country is moving dramatically to the left. Yeah. And I think there's a real frustration in the White House on that economy message. So they feel as though they have a decent story to tell on the economy moving in the right direction. The economy is not where it needs to be right now, but they think it's better than it was under Biden, and they don't think they're getting credit.

7:25There was some interesting polling I got sent today, which is by a democratic think tank, Third Way, about exactly what you're talking about. So young men, and it's saying that they're finding that young men are breaking 2-1 in the Democrats' favour now. Young men are moderate, according to their findings. So they want the parties to move to the centre. This is a think tank, which would quite like the Democrats to move to the centre. So we'll take that. Republicans, they say, still reflect young men's values. So young men associate their top two values, providing for their family and being financially independent, more with the Republicans and the Democrats.

8:00It would suggest perhaps not everything is lost, but it depends a bit what way the Democrats go next to. Yeah. And two other very quick polling points. One, there was another poll this week. And that's very interesting about young men. And a poll this week showed Trump losing a lot of support to among non-college educated voters. That is the core of the Republican base and has been for a long time. And Trump has really doubled down on that. People who didn't go to college tend to vote Republican. They voted overwhelmingly white, especially white voters. But even Hispanics voted majority and significant and a large minority of blacks who didn't go to college voted for Trump.

8:35That's his core base, the sort of non-college educated voters. They are abandoning him in droves too right now. And that's a really, really big move because, again, as I say, that's been a core part of the Republican base for a long time. And another just little quick thing which will enrage Trump, although he'll doubtless dismiss it as fake news. There have been two polls in the last week that have asked people, who do you rate higher as a president, Donald Trump or Joe Biden? For the last year, every single poll has put Trump higher than Biden. The last two polls, Katie, on that now are starting to say that people think Biden was a better president than Donald Trump is, which would be, you know, again, as I say, I'm sure Trump will dismiss it.

9:14But it's a real, real red flag for Republicans if things are so bad right now that people actually kind of want Joe Biden back. I wonder, Joe, do you think Republicans privately, at least, are starting to think the game's up? Because certainly from conversations I've been having around D.C., there is a real sense of they have until the midterms. I've got, you know, people I've met here who currently work for Republicans strategizing their career move because they're thinking when is the best time to almost cash out and get a job based on the contacts you currently have. And then I also think there's a sense of almost impending doom, not to be too melodramatic, about what happens after the midterms if, as expected, the Democrats do better the House goes and all the investigations that are going to happen.

10:05So, for example, as we were saying, well, you know, it's time to say who's going to be there first if they're going to start looking at things like Kennedy Center finances. That's one thing that comes up a lot. It's almost as though everyone sees the next couple of months as their time to almost be, what is the end of peak Trump if we are still there? And then it's probably downhill from there onwards. Yeah, it's right. And I've spoken to some Republicans too. I know a number of Republicans who aren't running again. They're not going to run in the elections. They think they're going to lose. But even if they win, they don't want to be part of a minority dominated by Democrats for the next two years.

10:38And they're sort of giving up on the career and looking at, you know, alternatives. The other thing I think that's really interesting, Casey, is worth saying before we close on this subject is where does this leave the 28 race? And in particular, where does it leave the perennial question that's always in my mind, which is J.D. Vance. Vance remains the front runner for the Republican nomination. That's every single incumbent vice president who seeks his party's nomination has got it in the last 50 years. And they just have an enormous inbuilt advantage, name recognition, status, proximity to the president, all of that.

11:13I'm increasingly of the view that Vance is going to have a really, really hard time in 2028. Again, if Trump's numbers stay where they are, that's going to be a very bad thing for a start because Vance is going to have to run away to some extent from Trump and Trump's not going to let him do it. Secondly, Vance just doesn't have great political skills. We've seen him constantly, every time he He opens his mouth. I mean, he's very clever. He is undoubtedly very clever, a very thoughtful man. But he's turned himself into this sort of caricature of a MAGA figure. And he keeps opening his mouth and putting his foot in it.

11:44He's been on this trip to Europe that he's been on in the line, the Caucasus in the last week. He was, you know, we saw him getting booed at the Winter Olympics last weekend, which nobody really shed any tears over. And then he was in Armenia this earlier this week and issued a tweet talking about the Armenian genocide. Now, this is, to anybody who knows anything about the detail there, this is a diplomatic faux pas of massive, massive proportions, because Turkey, as we know, always refuses to accept the allegation that there was a genocide. And the United States has always been very, very, very careful not to call it a genocide.

12:16Vance just has this capacity to say things that he shouldn't say. And he's just not a very appealing candidate. So I'm really interested in how that, you know, if Trump is growing increasingly unpopular, the Republicans are unpopular. Where does that leave the Republican race? Where does it leave J.D. Vance? That's something we're going to follow closely over the next few months. And I think it's really telling as a final point for me that despite everything we just said about polling, it is still the firm view of the White House. And perhaps they would say that, but also many Republicans, that their best bet is still Donald Trump.

12:46And therefore, that's why when it comes to the midterms, we know we're getting an RNC, a Republican National Convention this summer. That's the plan. And that is so they can put Trump at the center of things. Trump is a way to get the money in and Trump is a way to really speak to voters and try and put them at the centre of the campaigning ahead of the midterms because they feel that is probably the best bet they have at stopping the route they're currently having. Now, it might not work, but when you speak to people in DC, this is their tactic for the midterms. It's talking about their economy and it's making Donald Trump everywhere, which does raise some questions about what you do after he's gone.

13:22Look, we've got to take a break there, Katie. But when we come back, we're going to talk about various other things. The upcoming trip by Marco Rubio to Europe and the Munich Security Conference there, and more broadly, what that may mean for troubled US-European relations. But we've got other things too to talk about, including a fascinating article by our colleague Danny Finkelstein about the anti-Semitic abuses faced, particularly from Nick Fuentes, who, as we know, is a leading figure in the American right here. And we're going to talk a bit about that too. So stay with us. We'll be right back.

13:53And we're back. So Marco Rubio is heading to the Munich Security Conference. He is Trump's lead on all things foreign affairs. Jerry, when you think back to a year ago, the Trump administration's foray into the Munich Security Conference was not what many Europeans had expected. Instead, it got a lot of people talking and really, I think, set the mood music on what has been a year of debate about the US and Europe and its place in the world. Let's hear what J.D. Vance, who was the speaker last time the vice president, had to say back then. What I worry about is the threat from within, the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States of America.

14:34And perhaps most concerningly, I look to our very dear friends, the United Kingdom, where the backslide away from conscience rights has placed the basic liberties of religious Britons in particular in the crosshairs. Gerry, we're expecting it to not be quite as hostile as one word, but at least less of a talk you to. Yeah, I don't know what the right analogy is, Katie, whether it's the hard cop, soft cop analogy of, you know, last year, J.D. Vance was Trump's hard cop and in comes Marco Rubio, very much a sort of a softer message, or whether Europe feels like the kind of the abused partner where, you know, one day they get beaten up and the next day they get sort of spoken nicely to.

15:13But look, I think it's going to be interesting, exactly as you say and exactly as we heard, Vance stuck it to the Europeans at the Munich Security Conference last year. It was less than a month into the Trump administration. Basically, no one's ever really gone there like that before and told the Europeans what a bunch of losers they are. And they were all expecting J.D. Vance to get on stage and say either talk about AI or say that Putin was bad, not that they were. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. So, you know, it was a bit of a shock to the system, but it certainly set the tone for everything that's happened in the last year.

15:42Now, Rubio goes leading a very large U.S. delegation. And by the way, you know, Keir Starmer will be there. Most of the heads of Europe, it's a big event. It's kind of like Davos, too, really, a few weeks later. Senior Chinese officials will be there. The Russians don't go anymore because they've been disinvited since Ukraine. But I've spent quite a lot of time with Marco Rubio over the years. Rubio is a fierce, fierce believer in NATO. He's a fierce critic and opponent of Russia, Vladimir Putin. He really believes in alliances, you know, all of these things. So he's having to play the Trump role of being tough guy on these things that he used to be fairly kind of emollient on.

16:20So we can expect, I think, a kind of a different message from Rubio than the one we've had from Vance or from Trump, in fact, in the last year. It won't be I love you and don't worry about this lunatic in the White House. He'll be gone in three years time. He'll obviously echo the Trump message. He'll say you've got to do more in your own defense. You've got to do more about your own security. you know, he'll probably will say a few things like, you know, you've not been decent allies and you've kind of let us down. But I think that will be married to a message of, but we're here. We're still here.

16:48I'm here leading the largest delegation of this thing ever. America's still in Europe. America still believes in NATO. Donald Trump succeeded in getting European countries to do all his defense spending that they hadn't done before. And I think he'll have some pretty choice words for Vladimir Putin, too. And of course, Zelensky will be there. We'll see Rubio. They'll We'll see how, again, more of that message. So in the context of what we were just talking about in the first part of the show, Trump's unpopularity on a lot of these things, his slamming of NATO, his friendliness to Putin and his hostility to Ukraine, none of those things are popular.

17:21And I think Rubio is definitely pondering a run in 2028. Rubio does believe in a robust American approach, but he does also believe in diplomacy and alliances. And it'll be quite interesting to see whether Rubio does go there and offer again this sort of this slightly more conciliatory. We believe in Europe. We believe in a strong Europe and we want that alliance to work. Yes. And I think that for Europe, Marco Rubio is almost the acceptable face. So we have lots of these situations where often Vance or Trump or Steve Wyckoff, who, of course, is the peace envoy, former real estate mogul and an old time friend of Trump, will say things that are either seen as two pro enemies of Europe.

18:08So Russia, you know, this idea that Putin's a good guy. That's the Steve Wyckoff point. And they look to Marco Rubio to often walk it back or to go and have the follow up meeting. And then just perhaps as a feat of diplomacy, it's never quite as it seemed two days before. And he seems to be able to speak to the Europeans while also still staying very in there with Donald Trump. The other thing that will be obviously playing out in the background in Munich is, of course, Iran. We talked about this two weeks ago, that the United States is building this enormous armada, this beautiful armada, as Donald Trump has called it, continues to build that.

18:41These negotiations, you know, we're recording this on Wednesday, Netanyahu seeing Trump in the White House as we speak. I think Trump is really being tested here. I don't think Trump does want to go to war, all out war with Iran. He would like a nice, clean strike that he that would bring down the regime. Sadly, you know, military activity doesn't usually work like that. So Rubio will be talking to the allies about that. He'll be talking to there'll be some Arab governments will be represented there. And again, we're still kind of all on tenterhooks here, waiting to see whether or not there is in fact going to be military action or whether somehow, thanks to the work of Witkoff and others, whether there might be some sort of a deal.

19:16I remain very sceptical. I think Trump is going to probably ultimately choose to do a strike. Won't be an all out war, despite the amount of military activity and despite the personnel and material that are there. But I think this is going to be an important moment for Trump because there are going to be people, again, at a time when he's not popular who are going to worry about whether or not this is going to work. And I think speaking to figures in the administration over the past couple of weeks, as you say, it definitely feels as though there is a growing expectation the president will do something.

19:46But I keep hearing from administration figures who are concerned about where this goes. You know, it's not like Venezuela. Venezuela was a much simpler prospect. Ultimately, even if you have a puppet government in Venezuela and you keep Midori's number two and you manage to get them to vaguely play ball, there's still ifs on how that's going to work out. It's completely different, was what one administration figure said to me going into Iran, where you can't go for the Ayatollah's number two and say, oh, they're all going to work for America. It goes against, obviously, everything they're for, the size of Iran, the idea that some people talk about the Shah, who is actually based here in D.C., the son of the Shah, and the idea of the prince of Iran returning.

20:26That also is obviously incredibly complicated. So I think there was just a feeling that in the days that followed, if you could do a limited strike and you send a message, one thing, if it starts to become radium change, it's making even the most loyal Trump figures feel very nervous about what that would mean and about American involvement. Yeah, the elusive search for the moderate Ayatollah goes on as it has for the last 40 years in US diplomacy. so final topic just to end on a real light note um not we have a piece that lots of readers in the uk have been focusing on this week which is danny finkelstein talking about um lots of the abuse he received after really having a run-in with nick frentas and you know his online group the groopers as they are called on social media and everyone should go and read the piece as they haven't already.

21:17But I think it just happens on upon quite an interesting aspect of American political culture right now. Nick Frentes has, you know, particularly at the end of last year, really divided the Republican Party, because you had Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News host, who's obviously a significant figure in Trump world, even if he's not always getting on with Donald Trump, platforming, interviewing Nick Frentes, hugely watched interview, and many saying this is a rot, an anti-Semitic rot that should not be allowed and is now infecting, for example, the Heritage Foundation, which has mass resignations because they back Tucker Carlson.

21:56And I mean, how serious, Gerry, do you think we should be taking this online movement, which lots of people won't be seeing or hearing when they put on TV or read their subscriptions, but it's clearly an online current, which is the least affecting US politics? Yeah, it is. And I think, unfortunately, we do need to take it seriously. First thing I should is, you know, Danny's a friend and a colleague. And I read that article that he wrote, that very disturbing article with the abuse that he received, both from Nick Fuentes and, of course, then from the Groypers, you know, anti-Semites and others.

22:29And I just want to initially say just how horrifying and sort of grievous anybody would, any decent person would feel that, and feel for Danny and, indeed, anybody who's in that, any Jews on the receiving end of the kind of bile and filth that sadly fills up so much of our digital channels these days. It is serious, Katie, I think, because I think that, you know, look, I don't want to overstate it. This is not the Groypers are not a huge movement in the United States and dominate MAGA. They don't dominate the right of the Republican Party, but they are there. And this I think one of the disturbing things that we've really seen in the last couple of years, So, you know, on the left, by the way, obviously, too, and we should certainly not let the left off the hook in this conversation with the way in which anti-Zionism, anti-Israel statements have elided very, very quickly into, you know, frankly, outrageous and disgusting anti-Semitism.

23:23But there is this movement. There is this on the right. There is this kind of white supremacist element. It's always been there in America. We know, you know, from the Ku Klux Klan on. But it is there are younger people who are and what's what's what I was going to say what's disturbing is the way in which things that, you know, just would not have been ever heard really outside the kind of cesspool of very sort of narrow group of people who live in that kind of environment. But anti-Semitic observations are being platformed and normalized in our sort of political conversation right now in ways that I think are pretty disturbing.

24:05You know, you've talked about Nick Fuentes, who is this, you know, I think faintly sort of ludicrous figure, but nonetheless does have a significant following for the sort of disturbing and disgusting things he says. Candace Owens two more words I'm reluctant to let out of my mouth but there they are Candace Owens some may know I don't really particularly recommend anybody who doesn't know her to go and find her but I'll tell you she is she has a huge following on social media she spews out the most not only ridiculous and offensive but just again dark and disturbing nonsense about Jews about her anti-Semitic rants are very, very widely listened to.

24:49It is a concern, again, because I say primarily because, well, I really don't believe this is a movement that is gathering large numbers of followers here. They are there. They are vocal. And here's an interesting point. And again, I'm sorry to keep coming back to J.D. Vance, but I'm not in any way suggesting he's anti-Semitic. He's not a white supremacist. He's not. But it's always instructive to see how he speaks. about these things. He is very careful, as is Trump to some extent, although Trump will come out occasionally and say, you know, condemn these people. Vant is very careful to avoid explicitly condemning the Candace Owens and the Nick Fuentes and this kind of stuff.

25:29Again, he's very clever, so he never, ever, ever gets himself into a position where he can be mistaken for being on their side. But he knows that there is his, let me put it this way, his silence, his relative silence on the topic of this anti-Semitic white supremacist racist stuff that you're seeing on the right is, I think, instructive in terms of what it tells us about what a role they might play in Republican politics over the next few years. He doesn't want to be out there supporting them, I'm clear about that, but also he doesn't want to really alienate them and, you know, have them go and vote for somebody else.

26:03So it is, you know, it's disturbing and it is a relatively important, And I would say growing factor in American politics. Yeah, I think that it's quite clear J.D. Vance doesn't want to pick a fight with these guys. Nick Frentice will treat all this bile about J.D. Vance's wife. Her parents are Indian and obviously has a mixed race children. And he will send all this. And yet J.D. Vance doesn't really go all in. I find myself at the weekend receiving some of this online abuse because I had a bunch of people decide I was Jewish. I'm not actually. And they took issue with the timing of an interview.

26:37or that's a stupid Jewish conspiracy. So you can see it picking up pace and how it lives in these corners of the web. And I think I've been looking for a test on how much these online movements actually impact American politics. One thing to look at is actually the Ohio primary, which is in June. And the person to look for is Vimek Ramaswamy, who is a tech entrepreneur. He has been Mr. Maga, a Trump supporter. He was originally part of Co-Doge with Elon Musk, but didn't last very long. and he has clashed with the mega movements on things like HP1 visas, has been a bit more globalist. He's talked about unity and ultimately a sense that there could be some merits in diversity.

27:19And this has led to him to clash with Nick Frentes, who has said to him after Vivek Ramaswamy did a tweet saying, America's diversity isn't our strength, neither is its lineage. Our greatest strength is a set of ideals that unite us across that diversity. and Nick Frentis replied going, see you in Ohio, which I think was always to say, we are going to stop you. So I think that's one to look to, to see whether the online movement is going to start changing things in terms of the politics here. And with that, thank you for joining us this week on The State of It USA. Please do join us again next week.

27:56Goodbye.