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The State of It: USA

27 May 2026 · 31m · 12 chapters

Episode artwork

Republicans find their spines

In short

The episode of State of It USA focuses on three political storylines and one sports story. Topic: Trump’s influence in Republican primaries; the Texas Senate race and what it means for November; California’s top-two “jungle primary” for governor; and whether a deal to end the Iran conflict is close.

Key claims

Trump’s endorsement helped Ken Paxton win Texas by about 20 points; incumbents are increasingly losing primaries due to voter dissatisfaction; a potential Iran deal would likely require concessions like opening the Strait of Hormuz and easing nuclear pressure, but may look like “surrender” to hardliners; Arab states won’t recognize Israel as part of any Iran deal.

Notable examples

Paxton’s MAGA vs John Cornyn; James Tallarico’s “woke” views (including God as non-binary) and his church sermons; California’s Steve Hilton polling ~20% in a crowded field; Knicks’ 11-game streak and NBA Finals return after 27 years.

Guests

Katie Balls (Washington editor/columnist for The Times and Sunday Times) and Gerry Baker (editor-at-large of The Wall Street Journal; columnist for The Times).

Written by AI. May contain mistakes.

Chapters

1:10

Trump's Influence in Texas Senate Race

Discuss the impact of Trump's endorsement on Ken Paxton's victory.

“And I'm Gerry Baker, editor-at-large of The Wall Street Journal and columnist for The Times here in New York.”
2:09

Paxton's Controversial Background

Explore Ken Paxton's history and the implications for the upcoming election.

“one of the leaders of the Senate, Republican leaders of the Senate in Congress.”
3:21

Polling Insights and Candidate Dynamics

Analyze polling trends and candidate dynamics in the Texas Senate race.

“Texas has been Republican for three decades.”
4:25

Ken Paxton's Victory Speech

Examine the themes and rhetoric from Paxton's victory speech.

“Again, Chip Roy was seen as the more establishment candidate.”
5:15

Implications of Paxton's Personal Life

Discuss how Paxton's personal issues might affect his campaign.

“to the Californian race, they're becoming more expensive than usual because you have all these different groups trying to push for their candidates.”
7:31

The Changing Landscape for Incumbents

Look at trends of incumbents losing primaries and its broader implications.

“on Ken Paxton, which means that is this race now going to be closer than it would have been otherwise.”
9:45

James Tallarico's Unique Approach

Explore the religious and political views of James Tallarico and their impact.

“I can recall three conversations in the last couple of months with senior Republicans who go out on TV saying Trump is great and everything he does is good, who privately say to you, oh, my God, this is disastrous.”
14:01

California's Governor Race: Insights from the Ground

Learn about the dynamics of California's jungle primary and the candidates involved.

“And that will be a very interesting test of that proposition.”
23:05

Trump's Strategy on the Iran War

Explore the complexities of Trump's approach to the Iran war and potential peace deals.

“You had Trump holding a call with Arab leaders.”
28:01

The Shifting Dynamics of Republican Lawmakers

Explore the recent changes in Republican lawmakers' attitudes towards Trump.

“And I think the question is whether, you know, those voices who on Saturday decided to get out on the front foot and start saying this deal is bad.”
Show all 12 chapters
29:36

The Rebellious Streak Among GOP Senators

Discuss the emerging rebelliousness among GOP senators post-primary losses.

“Remember, Donald Trump said this new ballroom was going to be entirely funded by donors.”
31:02

Excitement in New York Sports

Delve into the thrilling resurgence of the New York Knicks and its social impact.

“I think we can say you're the expert here.”
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Transcript

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1:06Hello and welcome to the State of It USA. I'm Katie Balls, Washington editor and columnist for The Times and Sunday Times.

1:14Katy Balls: And I'm Gerry Baker, editor-at-large of The Wall Street Journal and columnist for The Times here in New York. This week, Donald Trump's intervention in the Republican Party primary has worked again. His pick, Ken Paxton, won the Republican nomination for the Senate seat in Texas. We'll look at just how powerful Trump's endorsements can be and what will happen in the Senate election and in the wider election in November. Katie's also been in California looking at the election there, big primary there next week for the state's governor. She's been with Steve Hilton, the leading Republican candidate.

1:48Katy Balls: We'll be talking about that. And are we close to a deal on Iran? We'll tell you what we've been hearing from inside the endless search for a conclusion to the war. And as the summer of sport gets underway, after a long drought, New York finally has something to celebrate. So, Katie, let's start with that Republican Senate primary in Texas. Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, challenged John Cornyn, the incumbent Republican senator, one of the leaders of the Senate, Republican leaders of the Senate in Congress. And Paxton, of course, as we talked about last week, got the very late but very important endorsement of Donald Trump and won comfortably.

2:27Katy Balls: Perhaps the story of the night was just the margin of victory. The polls had it as a relatively close race. But Paxton won in the end by around 20 points, sweeping victory. Paxton, again, as we talked about before, is a, shall we say, a controversial figure, somewhat scandalous figure. He was previously been accused of corruption multiple times. He was indicted by the Texas House and he was acquitted by the Senate. A rather sensational personality behind him. But he did get Donald Trump's backing. He is a firm, dyed-in-the-wool MAGA supporter, standing against John Cornyn, as I say, who was, while conservative and while a longstanding senior figure in the Republican Party, has never been that close to Trump, even though he has backed Trump and has never really opposed Trump on anything major.

3:14Katy Balls: lacks the kind of MAGA zealotry that Donald Trump looks for. So Paxton won comfortably. He will now be the candidate in November against the Democratic candidate, James Tallarico. Texas has been Republican for three decades. Democrat has never won, has not won a statewide race in Texas since the 1990s. Could this be about to change? What do you make of the result last night and what it portends in November? Well, I think there's a few things. As you say, winning over 60 % of the vote. It's decisive. Better for Ken Paxton than many of the polls predicted. I also think it gives merit to an argument I've been hearing from some of Ken Paxton's backers and the mega base, which is, yes, Trump endorsed Ken Paxton, and they're very grateful, and it did make a difference.

3:59But they feel they were edging ahead of John Corden already in the polls before the endorsement came. And maybe, and this is me, not them, because you have to be obviously careful what you say if you're in Donald Trump's party these days. But maybe actually the polls were a factor in Donald Trump deciding to get behind Ken Paxton rather than John Cornyn. And so the base has spoken. You also had an attorney general contest in that race, Chip Roy versus Mays Middleton. Again, Chip Roy was seen as the more establishment candidate. Mays Middleton got over the line. And so it does fit into a pattern we're seeing that lots of the incumbents or the more kind of traditional Republican wing rhinos, if you speak to the MAGA base, Republicans in name only, they don't think they reflect the new movement, are being cast aside for candidates that are closer to the base and are often Trump endorsed.

4:51forced and just to briefly look back at the race to this point and this has been a pretty vicious and expensive republican primary and you have john cornyn throwing a lot of money in this race over a hundred million spent um i think if you're listening from the uk on that um you think about how much is spent on uk elections in america is much bigger anyway on a general scale when it comes to the systems but particularly these primaries and we'll talk about a few more such to the Californian race, they're becoming more expensive than usual because you have all these different groups trying to push for their candidates.

5:25And then you get to the meet in Texas last night and I was texting a few Texans who I knew about this and lots of celebrations at Ken Paxton's victory rally. He used his speech very quickly and I think we can hear a clip here. My opponent is the most extreme radical the Democrats have ever nominated. He's even running a vegan campaign, whatever that is.

5:49he goes by a few names that you may all have heard of some people know him as Tofu Tallarico some people call him Six Gender Jimmy I've even heard some people call him James Tallarico and others refer to him simply as Low T Tallarico but no matter what you call him let me tell you this James Tallarico is a threat to everything we hold dear in this state and in this country. So you can hear in that speech that Ken Paxton is using that victory speech to really get on the front foot in terms of attacking James Tallarico, his Democrat opponent. And just to give the context here, one of the reasons that, you know, John Cornyn's allies said that this longtime senator should stay in place is because they think that James Tallarico is a serious opponent, no matter what Trump, Ken Paxton and various Republicans might say publicly, they worry that this grandson of a preacher who speaks in the language of God, something that's often seen as belonging more to the American right, has a way through when it comes to swing voters.

6:55They worry that Ken Paxton has too much baggage. Look at various Fox Pops and The Times, other publications, speaking to Texan voters. And there are a couple who, you know, I think in what is the third most religious state in America, will bring up Ken Paxton's divorce, his wife filed last year on biblical grounds, as something that would give them pause for thought about whether or not to vote for him. My colleague Susie Cohen was vox-pockeying voters in Texas and one said, you know, well, I did want to vote for Ken, but my wife said she would kill me if I did because of the divorce. So he wanted to stay a married man.

7:30So I think they just think there's a little bit of a complication on Ken Paxton, which means that is this race now going to be closer than it would have been otherwise. And it's interesting when you look at, you know, last night, for example, how they were ranking how the races might go. It went from a likely or, you know, decent Republican win chance to still they're expecting it to be a Republican victory for the reasons you at Langeri. It's Texas. It's hard for it to tear it blue. But they've made it, they've kind of lowered that expectation to say it'll be a closer Republican win if things go their way.

8:01Katy Balls: Yeah, but the polling doesn't actually suggest that Paxton does noticeably worse against Tallarico than Cornyn. The average of the polling I've seen gave Tallarico is it stands a small lead over Cornyn, very small lead over Cornyn, and a very slightly larger lead over Paxton. But we're talking one or two percentage points. So I don't think it's a huge difference. I do think the question mark is going to be over Tallarico. He's a fascinating character. He's a pastor, a religious figure who fits in with a lot of how Texans, I remember Texas is a very religious state, but he has some pretty, pretty way out views.

8:38Katy Balls: You know, most famously, you know, he's and he's going to get this is going to be he's going to be reminded of this for the next five months. He he talks about whether or not the God is he or she, but non-binary. And he has some sort of pretty what might be called woke views, which, you know, they might go over pretty well in the rarefied parts of New York City and Boston. but they don't go over too well with those voters down in Texas. So for all Paxton's troubles, I think it's going to be a close race. And the effort, as you say, the money is going to be huge. Tallarica already has raised something like$27,$28 million.

9:19Katy Balls: Given the closeness of the race, the Republican National, the Senate committee is going to put in, you have to put in huge amounts of money. We could be talking$100 million in that race alone, in that Senate race alone. So it's going to be very, very expensive. It's going to look like it'll be tight. And I don't think it's by any means in the bag for Tallarica, the Democrats. I'll say two other very quick things about that before we move on to other stuff. Katie. First of all, I was very struck. I think one of the things that's going on with Trump and this extraordinary ability he obviously has, as we've talked about before, to essentially his control that he has over the Republican Party and his ability to get Republican voters to back him and to back his candidates.

10:04Katy Balls: I've certainly had the experience. Most people who sort of wander around television studios or talk to politicians privately have the experience where you talk to some of these Republicans who are publicly supportive of Trump because they have to be, but in private are pretty scathing about him. I can recall three conversations in the last couple of months with senior Republicans who go out on TV saying Trump is great and everything he does is good, who privately say to you, oh, my God, this is disastrous. You know, Trump is pretty good at sniffing out those people. And frankly, I'm not revealing any confidences here, but that is how John Cornyn in Texas was certainly seen as someone who tolerates Trump, goes along with Trump, votes with Trump, but his heart isn't really there.

10:47Katy Balls: And Republicans actually do want the real thing. They want the real MAGA person. And there's no doubt whatever else Ken Paxton may be, he's that. The other quick thought I have on the elections, looking at them in some detail in Texas last night, is the incumbents did pretty badly. You know, in America, it used to be the case that if you were an incumbent, you pretty well had a seat for life if it was a relatively safe seat. You're very, you know, incumbents have huge re-election advantages in general elections. They're able to bring a lot of money home for their district. They do very well. They might occasionally face a primary challenge, but they wouldn't generally lose it.

11:21Katy Balls: We're now seeing incumbent after incumbent lose a primary. John Cornyn has obviously done so. We talked last week about Bill Cassidy, the senator in Louisiana. A couple of Democratic, very sort of prominent Democrats who've been around for decades. Al Green in Texas, a very prominent African-American member of the House. I think he's 78 years old. Election after election, he lost the runoff yesterday to his Democratic challenger. I think this is a broader picture here that we've seen not just in the US, but I think across the West, a continuing dissatisfaction with elected officials. What always used to be the sort of the incumbent advantage is rapidly turning into a disadvantage because people are so unhappy with the direction of the country.

12:01Katy Balls: They're unhappy with the state of politics. They're unhappy with their leadership. And so incumbents are losing left, right and centre. And it's a very important phenomenon that it's not just about Trump and MAGA. It is about a much wider dissatisfaction. I think on the question whether James Tallarico is woke, well, I, a couple of months ago, ended up spending a morning at James Tallarico's church. And this is where lots of his views come from when it comes to his Christianity, which on the one hand is why some Republicans are scared of him. But on the other hand is where they're getting so many of these lines they can use against him, because he almost does give these sermon like speeches and he talks about his faith.

12:39So that's where God is non-binary. He talks about, you know, loving your neighbor, what that means to the border. And he's a church called St. Andrews, which is on the outside of Austin. And it has a kind of outside, it has the flags of, you know, all the different religions outside it, saying everyone is welcome, is very much, you know, all refugees are welcome. And I sat there on Palm Sunday, as his preacher, Jim Rigby, gave the sermon, what he was talking about, it was the lessons of this and how it relates to MAGA nationalists, and how there's nothing more dangerous than a MAGA Christian nationalist.

13:16and how they preach hate will preach love. And it's clearly where James Tallarico gets a lot of his worldview from. He's been going to that church since he was baptised. And yeah, I think that you already have a situation speaking to Republicans here. They send attack figures to go and sit through these sermons and to sit through the old ones that are all online, try and find lines, which they can then use to either attack James Tallarico indirectly correctly or to find things that he might have said elsewhere. So I think that his faith here is going to be a double edged sword when it comes to how the campaign is going to go.

13:52Katy Balls: Yeah, that's very interesting. People, especially people who aren't particularly religious, tend to just sort of think people who are religious all think the same way. And that will be a very interesting test of that proposition. Well, look, Katie, you also on the subject of elections next week, big primary election in California. The most interesting race there is the governor's race. You've been out there. Tell us what you found. Yes, I've just spent the weekend escaping rainy Washington, D.C. And I think rain where you were also in New York, Jerry, in California, where the California primary is heating up.

14:25Now, they have something of a messy primary, which takes place next week, where it isn't Republican or Democrat. It's everyone and just the top two candidates go through. And I think this gives the various candidates a bit of anxiety. Steve Hilton, for those who have not followed his journey, used to be an advisor in the David Cameron government. He is the son of Hungarian immigrants. He is a Brit. He moved to America. He's now an American citizen with his wife, Rachel, who worked for Google, having quit the Cameron government. And he's now running for California governor to replace Gavin Newsom.

15:00And he is the poll favorite. If you look at the polls, he is consistently the person who is top. You would suspect after this primary, perhaps the Democrats will get behind one candidate, presuming Steve Hilton makes it through, and that starts to look different. But I went to several campaign events of him. I also had a sit down, so that would be in the Sunday Times later this week. And it was interesting speaking to lots of the Californians about, you know, why, A, they were voting Republican. Some, of course, were lifelong Republicans, but I met plenty who said, were just sick of the status quo to your point earlier, Jerry.

15:36And also, do they mind voting for some of a British accent, I asked in the year of the 250. And they said they a few of them said they actually quite liked that. Because again, there was a sense that they were going for something different. And a real feeling, I think, in terms of Californian politics, that it's been a one state party where nothing has been done. I was speaking to, you know, one figure in Sacramento, where I spent a few hours before traveling to meet Steve Hilton, and I said, you know, who are you voting for? And they said, well, it's just picking a different devil.

16:07Katy Balls: Yeah, it is. As you say, it's a strange system. They introduced this jungle primary system in Bali was an attempt to sort of deal with the problem of polarisation. And if you have when you have party primaries, you end up the candidate in each party, the candidates in each primary appeal to the base voters who are likely to come out. And so you end up with this is the sort of typical pattern, you end up with more extreme, if you like, if that's the right word, but candidates who appeal to their base rather than to the middle. So they introduce this, they call jungle primary, exactly as you say, where there's no party, it's not, there are party candidates, but it's one single primary and the top two candidates of whatever party that come out on top go through to the general election.

16:53Katy Balls: And as you say, Steve Hilton is top of the polls, but it should be noted that he's top of the polls with about 20 % of the vote. and the challenge of course will be if you add up, if you currently add up there's something, what are there, 50 candidates for something if you add up all the candidates shares of the vote right now, Democrats led by Javier Becerra who's the state attorney general and other Democratic candidates, they come to about 60 % of the vote and Republicans get to about 30 something percent of the vote so what's likely to happen as you say is that you'll get Steve Hilton probably, the leading Republican will go through.

17:29Katy Balls: The leading Democrat, who all the polls seem to suggest will probably be this guy, Javier Becerra, will go through. And those two will go through. And then the massive Democratic advantage in California will then play out in the general election. Steve Hilton's best hope, obviously, is if somehow, by a sort of freak of so many candidates, two, the top two in this field were both Republican. And then, you know, it'd be a contest between two Republicans. That seems unlikely to happen. Yeah. And that was the message they were really pushing in California. of Steve Hilton to everyone was, don't believe there's going to be two Republicans.

17:58You think it's so tight that if you try and be clever, you're going to get neither Republican in. So we'll see on that.

18:04Katy Balls: I mean, it's great that Steve, you know, we all know Steve Hilton, we both know Steve Hilton from days of yore. He is offering a difference. I mean, you know, California has had, like Texas, one party government for the other party, in the case of California, for decades. I mean, of course, famously, Arnold Schwarzenegger was a Republican kind of there. Now, he really was a rhino, Republican in name only, but he did come in and he did shake things up. But you haven't really, you know, you've just had this one party rule dominating the state legislature, dominating the governorships, dominating the statewide elected offices.

18:37Katy Balls: And, you know, California, for all its for all the advantages, it continues to have. It's a remarkable state, California. I mean, you know, it continues to be the dominant sort of economic thriving force in in the world, really, of Silicon. It comes thanks to Silicon Valley right now, thanks to the defence industry in the past, the gold rush in the 19th century. Despite all of its advantages, it's run really badly. I mean, it has really, really bad government. It's overregulated. It's heavily taxed. People are leaving. One of the issues, and I don't know if this came up, Kate, it would be interesting to hear what you think, this billionaire's tax, which is on the ballot in November 2, which is a tax to literally – which would tax a proportion of billionaires' wealth, which is essentially unrealized stock gains.

19:23Katy Balls: A lot of people, I talk to a lot of people who are literally moving out of California because of this, because they're terrified by this. So it would be good if things could be shaken up. But I fear that, again, if it's this guy, Democrat Becerra versus Steve Hilton, and it comes down to just party identification, Becerra is right out of central casting in Democratic Party terms. He's very much in the Kamala Harris mold, very much in the Gavin Newsom mold. And you'll just end up with another progressive Democrat running the state. But what did you did? Did Steve talk about the billionaire's tax and the fears that people are going to leave California because so much because of the because of the heavy weight of government there?

20:00Yeah, it came up a bit. I think it came up most as this wider conversation to your point, which is why are all these people leaving California? And how have you got what, you know, every candidate is going to tell you is the best state in America. but one where it's you know it's not competitive enough there's too much legislation and people feel as though you know a there's a wealth problem but one thing Steve Hilton kept talking about also was the fact that you have high poverty in California so just the sense that I think trying to make it less as in will help the rich even if the subtext was the taxes are too high and more even with these current high taxes you're not actually doing enough to fix you know, poverty, low living standards.

20:41So you need a whole new system, which therefore prioritizes growth. And I spoke to Steve Hilton in a bit, and I said, you know, quite a lot of people look at your campaign and in the UK, and they say, you used to be the guy who walked around Downing Street, not wearing shoes. You know, he was seen as the blue sky thinker. And now they see you as Mr. Mega. You know, is that consistent? He was like, well, no, I'm talking about all these things on prosperity, on cutting down legislation on, you know, simplifying the system when it comes to tax and other things, which is consistent in his argument.

21:13And we went to this place called Hillmar, which is a very rural area in California. And that's, you know, quite a lot of rich landowners and so forth. And for them, the problem is regulations when it comes to farming, when it comes to water, when it comes to how you can use your stove. And just the sense that, you know, a lot of laws are being passed, but no one is actually checking what they are.

21:33Katy Balls: All right, good. We're going to take a quick break. Then when we come back, we will have the latest on the back and forth over the Iran war as Donald Trump continues to try to find a way to end this war. And we'll also be talking about New York City, but most importantly about the New York Knicks basketball team, for those of you unfamiliar. New York's not had a lot of sporting success in the last 15 years or so, but that could be about to change. And I'm going to tell you about how much excitement there is in New York with the World Cup just about to get underway here too so sports very much the theme we'll be back uh after this amazon health ai presents painful thoughts i um i can't stop scratching my downtown yeah but i'm not itching to go downtown and tell a receptionist i'm here to talk about my downtown some things you'd rather type than say out loud there's no question too embarrassing for Amazon Health AI.

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23:32You had Trump holding a call with Arab leaders. But Jerry, it didn't come to pass. And we know that Trump is meeting with his cabinet this week. We know there have been briefings to journalists, MAGA influencers to try and lay the groundwork for a potential deal. Why do you think it didn't happen when we were overhearing it, Mike?

23:49Katy Balls: Look, Trump wants to get this war over with. He's being pushed very hard by, not by MAGA, interestingly, but by what might be called some of the sort of more traditional kind of neocons in the Republican Party who believe firmly in the efficacy of the US military interventions to achieve major changes. He's being pushed to continue the war, finish the job in the favorite terminology, go in there, knock out the rest of whatever Iran has, knock over the regime if it can, certainly, you know, go in, maybe seize the uranium. In other words, escalate the war from the sort of stasis that it's in right now.

24:33Katy Balls: He doesn't want to do that. And I will say this here. I think we've criticized Donald Trump a lot. I think he's right about this. This will be an all out war that people are talking about with Iran. Iran is a country the size of Afghanistan and Iraq combined. It has obviously very strong military capabilities. It's survived. This regime has survived for 47 years. It wouldn't just be a simple sort of surgical strike. This would be what to finish the job in the way that he's being urged would require an all out war between the United States and Iran. And he doesn't. Donald Trump, I think, quite rightly doesn't want to do that.

25:04Katy Balls: So he's trying to do a deal that gets him out of this without losing too much face and without looking like what unfortunately it looks like, which is kind of a U.S. surrender. In other words, opening the strait, getting Iran to agree to open the strait and then to also agree to significant concessions on its nuclear program. At the weekend, what we seem to, from what I'm told, what we seem to have, the outlines of a deal in which Iran would agree to open the strait, the U.S. would lift its blockade. Then there'd be a 30 or 60 day period in which the nuclear stuff would be negotiated with an understanding that somewhere down the line, Iran would agree to not what it would, by the way, what it's always said its objective is, which it doesn't want a nuclear weapon, and that it will somehow shift to get rid of its nuclear material is highly enriched uranium, which it has 400 kilograms or something, and that there would be a deal around that.

25:56Katy Balls: Now, that unfortunately, that kind of a deal to the hardliners, these people I sort of describe as kind of neocons, would look like an American surrender because basically what will you have achieved? I mean, you'll have achieved getting the Strait of Hormuz open, which when it was open on February the 28th when Trump started this war. So, you know, that hasn't the war hasn't achieved anything there. And even if you get Iran down the road to agree to a nuclear deal in which it in which it gets rid of its nuclear materials. Well, that, surprisingly enough, was the deal that Barack Obama negotiated with Iran in 2015, 11 years ago, which Republicans, including Donald Trump, have been absolutely scathing about.

26:35Katy Balls: So so that so the only deal that's really on offer, which Donald Trump seems minded to take, would look like a complete humiliation for the US. So I think he was persuaded to back off. And then we had that incident where there was some shooting that went on Iran. The US was escorting some ships fired on some fired defensively on some Iranian boats. And then, you know, Iran fired back at a drone. But that was that was all sort of that seemed to be quite sort of controlled. controlled. One other very interesting thing, Katie, there was one thing that was floated at the weekend was this idea that as part of a deal, the Arab countries would recognize the state of Israel and extend the Abraham Accords.

27:13Katy Balls: And this was seized on by Trump supporters as, wow, this will be an amazing, amazing achievement. It's not true. And I've spoken to Arab officials, they're not going to recognize Israel, they're certainly not going to do it as part of a deal with Iran. So he's stuck, basically, he's stuck in this position. At some point, he's probably going to have to accede to the inevitable, agree some sort of a deal, get the US out of there, try and save face, claim it's a victory, claim they've done enormous damage to Iran's capabilities. And the reality will be Iran survives. It will have de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz.

27:45Katy Balls: And it will basically do with its nuclear program what it always claimed it was going to do with this nuclear program. So it's not, it really doesn't look like the US is going to get a good outcome out of this? Yeah, I think the only thing I would add on that is, I think there is a large enough part of the magosphere, Trump's, you know, inner outer circle, that are just so desperate for this to be over, didn't really want it in the first place, that they are willing to hold their nose and do the tweets, say, you know, Trump, the great peacemaker, come up with some things that aren't particularly corresponding with reality, perhaps.

28:20And I think the question is whether, you know, those voices who on Saturday decided to get out on the front foot and start saying this deal is bad. Before the deal was announced, leaving to, you know, exchanges between Republican lawmakers and the White House Director of Comms saying, you don't know what you're talking about. But, you know, it was clear to try and stop something from happening. Once Trump announces something, do this group, you know, get back in their box? Or do they, you know, do they decide to keep going with the criticism? And maybe it links a little bit in with what we've been talking about at the beginning of this podcast, which is if it does seem that Trump has absolute authority in his party, if it is the case that if you are, you know, someone who votes for Donald Trump 95 % at the time, but dared to say you thought his words were a little bit reckless around January 6th and you find yourself not getting an endorsement, maybe you do keep your powder dry.

29:10But at the same time, senators, I definitely feel in the past week or so, something has shifted in Washington DC. They are, you know, finding their voices, perhaps for cynical reasons, because they no longer feel an incentive, those that have already been cast aside. But there was a real anger about the way Donald Trump has treated some of those Republican lawmakers. So I wouldn't completely rule out a small uprising when it comes to the GOP and a deal they're not happy with.

29:35Katy Balls: That's a very good point, Katie. Look, we've seen, you know, to your point about sort of rising rebelliousness among Republicans in the last couple of weeks now, We've seen over a number of issues over the infamous White House book, the additional funding for the White House ballroom that Donald Trump wants. Remember, Donald Trump said this new ballroom was going to be entirely funded by donors. And then he turned to Congress and said, actually, I need a billion dollars for the security for it. A number of members of Congress, including some senators, have said, no, no way, Mr. President, we're not doing that.

30:06Katy Balls: And then again, and just to wrap it all up in terms of what we talked about in the first part, you now have another senator, John Cornyn. I mean, last week it was Bill Cassidy, who is the sort of zombie senator, senator from Louisiana. He's still in the Senate for the next eight months, even though, you know, he's now lost his primary and so won't be standing again. And now you have John Cornyn in Texas, lost his primary, will be around for another eight months, seven, eight months, won't be standing again. And these people, what we've seen in the past with all of these people who aren't standing again is they suddenly discover that they own a spine and they start to kind of demonstrate it.

30:37Katy Balls: And I think, yeah, you're right. I think as we get over, whether it's Iran, whether it is some of these other issues, and especially as Trump's approval raisings remain absolutely in the basement, that spine that these Republicans are going to discover they have is going to start to be stiffened. And they're going to sort of stand up to some of the things he wants to do. Now, Gerry, that's end on New York and sports. And here I'm going to defer to you. I think we can say you're the expert here. Well, I mean, there's tremendous excitement in New York City. No New York major sports team has won a national title for 15 years since 2011.

31:20Katy Balls: But the salvation may be at hand, redemption may be at hand because the New York Knicks, the basketball team plays at Madison Square Garden. Lots and lots of famous fans. Every time they play, the camera picks out Ben Stiller, Timothee Chalamet, regular attendees. Donald Trump, it should be said, before he was president, used to be quite a regular attendee of the New York Knicks. They're the sort of glamour, the kind of glamour team of New York. They're all glamour and sort of no achievement, really, because New York Knicks have not won a national title since the 1970s. They haven't been in the finals, the NBA finals, since 1999, 27 years.

31:59Katy Balls: But this week, not only have they reached the final, they just knocked out the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Eastern Conference finals, though they've reached the NBA finals for the first time in 27 years. But they're on this extraordinary 11-game winning streak in which they keep piling up points, beating all comers. And again, it's more of a social phenomenon here because the Knicks have been so useless for so long. People aren't really following the Knicks, but they suddenly got very excited about it. The other thing that needs to be said is the New York Knicks is the Madison Square Garden, where they play as a stadium of 15 ,000 audience.

32:32Katy Balls: The tickets are unbelievably expensive. Somebody told me the other day that the courtside tickets for the three of the NBA finals, which will be here in New York, are going a pair of tickets are going for one hundred and fifty thousand dollars. I think it was quite amusing was Zoran Mamdani, the New York City mayor, of course, the socialist mayor, as we know, elected last year. He was at the game the other night when they won, comprehensively beat the Cleveland Cavaliers, and tweeted about it. And I will say, to his great credit, he was not courtside in some fancy VIP seat. He was way, way up in the gods, right up in sort of like, you know, row 293 in the far corner of Madison Square Garden, excitedly waving his Knicks hat and tweeting about it.

33:18Katy Balls: So good for him. Oh, good to his very wise spin doctor. So with that, Jerry, I think that's all we have time for this week. Do join us again next week where we'll bring you the latest on Iran and much, much more. Amazon Health AI presents Painful Thoughts. Why did I search the internet for answers to my cold sore problem? Now I'm stuck down a rabbit hole filled with images of alarmingly graphic sores in various stages of ooze. I can clear my search history, but I can never unsee that. Don't go down the rabbit hole. Amazon Health AI gets you the right care fast. Healthcare just got less painful.

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From the publisher

President Trump's pick, Ken Paxton, has won the Republican primary to set up an interesting senate race in Texas. He beat John Cornyn who joins a growing group of Republican senators who are not standing for re-election so have little to lose from standing up to Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, Steve Hilton is hoping to become the Republican governor of California and Katy has spent some time with him.

We hear what people inside the Iran discussions are saying about the prospects of a deal.

And finally New York has something sporting to shout about.


Katy Balls, Washington editor and columnist at The Times and The Sunday Times

Gerard Baker, columnist at The Times and editor at large at The Wall Street Journal


Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness


Image: Getty Images.

Clips: Reuters

This podcast was brought to you thanks to the support of readers of The Times and The Sunday Times. Subscribe today

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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