The Democratic Trump? AOC shapes up to take on JD Vance

0:04Hello and welcome to the State of it USA from the Times and the Sunday Times. our weekly look at what's going on in America. I'm Gerry Baker, editor-at-large of The Wall Street Journal and columnist for The Times, and I'm in New York City, and I'm joined by my colleague Katie Balls. I join you from Washington, D.C. Katie, Washington editor, I should say, for The Times and The Sunday Times. Lots have been going on this week. We've got lots to talk about as ever. It's usual kind of crazy stuff going on. But tell us what you've been up to. Well, it was my first ever Valentine's Day in Washington, D.C., And don't worry, I'm not about to tell you some heartwarming story.

0:40I actually had a house party on Valentine's Day because it's when my birthday is around that period. That's how nice I am to my husband. But before I went through my own party, I ended up at the Cruel Kids Valentine's Party. And these people quite a bit younger than me. I felt I was more a spectator, if I'm being honest. I don't know if everyone will remember, but around the time of the Trump inauguration, there were all these parties. and one was the MAGA youth coming together and it made the front cover of New York magazine and they called it the Cruel Kids Table. So I went along and as you would expect, it had many, many MAGA caps, all specially themed, which were Cruel Kids XOXO and Make America Party Again and then this huge sign in the centre which was MAGA is in the air as I watched all these people in these 20s find probably quite temporary love but forms of love around me.

1:36And then they had a famous rapper play. So that was not like a Valentine's Day I'd had in London. What about yourself, Gerry? Let's raise the tone. Yeah, well, while you were looking, I wouldn't say looking for love in all the wrong places, but looking at love in all the wrong places, I was actually, I've just been to Yale University. I was at Yale yesterday and last night for a debate, actually. I took place in a debate in the Yale Union, sort of a kind of a little bit of a version of the Oxford Union. The subject was basically, the proposition was journalists have kind of destroyed journalism and entrust in everything else.

2:07And I was on the side of that. I was arguing in favor of the proposition. Sadly, we lost. Well, maybe not so sadly. Maybe this suggests there's a little bit of it was a close vote, but there's a little bit of faith left in journalism there. But it was quite fun to be at Yale. It's, of course, J.D. Vance's alma mater. And I spoke to a conservative group there, too. Interestingly, mix, you know, mix of MAGA and decidedly non MAGA. But there are many of them were law students like Vance had been. And he keeps in touch with the law school. In fact, a bunch of them went down to the White House and spent some time with him just before Christmas and had some interesting conversations.

2:39So in fact, they have a theory that one of the reasons that Trump hasn't gone after Yale quite as aggressively as he's gone after Harvard is because J.D. Vance has intervened to kind of save Yale from Trump's wrath. But anyway, speaking of fascinating conversations, there's been a lot going on as ever, of course, in the last week. Let's start off, Katie, with the kind of continuing sort of fallout, I suppose you could call it, from the Munich Security Conference. We talked about this last week. We sort of previewed that Marco Rubio would go and would give a kind of more emollient speech than J.D.

3:09Vance had given last year, while still emphasizing Trump policy. And he did exactly that, exactly as we'd said. But a lot of the attention actually at Munich was on, not on Rubio, but on the huge other members of the huge delegation that the US sent. One of the most interesting was, of course, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the New York congresswoman, kind of tribune of the far left, very young, very sort of charismatic. Republicans regard her as a little bit dumb. And sure enough, she kind of lived down to expectation. By the way, she's talked about, I should say, she is talked about quite seriously as a potential presidential candidate, if not in 2028, But certainly beyond, she's still actually barely legal age for the presidency, which, you know, you have to be 35.

3:55I think she's about 36 now. She is prone to saying some things that don't always sound like they come from the sharpest mind in Washington. And we had a bit of that when she was asked in Munich about Taiwan and about what she would do. So we can hear some of that. Would and should the U.S. actually commit U.S. troops to defend Taiwan if China were to move? You know, I think that this is such a, you know, I think that this is a, this is, of course, a very longstanding policy. Republicans latched onto this and sort of, you know, used it to emphasize how that she's not very bright and doesn't really understand much about foreign affairs.

4:46in her defence, I would say, you know, frankly, there are a lot of Republicans, some arguably in very senior positions, who are equally not particularly bright about foreign affairs. What was your take on the sort of Democrats outing to Europe? I think it was interesting for a few reasons. First off, to your point, there are lots of Democrats there. We also had Gavin Newsom, the governor of California there. And it felt as though the Democrats were there to flex some muscle and in some cases, put a foot forward on 2028 and who is going to get the nomination. Now, of course, every candidate, if you press them and say, I'm not thinking about 2028, I'm thinking about saving the world order or creating a new world order or stopping the far right in their opinion.

5:24But I think it's interesting, even speaking to figures this week in DC, that everything is now already being seen through the lens when it comes to what Democrat candidates are saying of 2028. On AOC, as she is widely known, it was further confirmation of how much attention she can get to me. So when you are talking about what would make someone a good candidate or a good leader of the opposition in the UK, of course, the ability to dominate the airwaves is important. The amount of attention she received for A, going, when there were lots of other Democrats also going and trying to, you know, get their bit, get their time on panels or on stage.

6:02She didn't have an official speech. She was speaking on panels. She had a few different appearances. But even before she spoke, there were countless articles in the American media about her. And And then I think when she did speak, of course, the sense that she didn't have pronounced enough foreign policy views and she stuttered has been the takeaway. And the fact that she then gave up follow up quotes to a reporter at The New York Times saying, everyone's seeing this from 2028. That's not really what this is about. Shows at the very least, she was rattled by some of the criticism she received.

6:33I think when we look at what this means for her potential candidacy, whether it's Senate or 2028. I was speaking to a few figures about it and I said, you know, why is it that the Republicans are so obsessed with talking about AOC? Because you look at the cable channels this week and often I have it on loud, but sometimes I just have it on mute as I work and just to keep an eye on it. And it felt like every 15, 20 minutes in some places they were just going back to what they said and having discussions. J.D. Vance on an interview on Fox News criticized her. I think we can hear that. Martha, you bring me on your show, you show me the most uncomfortable 20 seconds of television I've ever seen.

7:11My takeaway from that... What happened there? What do you think? Well, I think it's a person who doesn't know what she actually thinks. And again, it became this comfortable talking point for lots of MAGA to say she doesn't know anything. And for me, I do wonder, and I think probably, Jerry, you're going to tell me they really don't think she's very good. But it did remind me of something Steve Bannon said quite a few months ago when I sat down for an interview of him, which is he said, you know, the future in his view is populism. And the only question really is if that is populism on the right or populism on the left.

7:46So there are certainly parts of the MAGA movement who are more worried about a candidate like AOC, a candidate like Mandani in New York, and going up against that than they are a more establishment candidate when it comes to the Democratic Party and someone who's more in the old guard, more trying to keep the old institutions alive. And I think the furore that her comments got, and she clearly could have spoken more eloquently. I had one Hill staffer last night say to me, in a way, she's the Democratic Trump because she says these things that don't make complete sense, but she almost can get away of it with the base.

8:19Yeah, I mean, I'm kind of me sceptical on the desk that they're concerned about her. And, you know, Steve Bannon probably would love to, almost every Republican I know would be in seventh heaven if AOC were the Democratic candidate for president because I think they think she's completely unelectable and I think they're right in a national contest. And Steve Bannon sort of reminds me of the old sort of Br 'er Rabbit and the Briar Patch story. No, no, no, please don't pick Democrats. Please don't pick AOC. Please don't pick AOC. That would be such a disaster for us. Jerry, just on that, do you think some Republicans said that about Mandani and then Mandani?

8:54Or do you think that you're speaking from New York and obviously New York is different? No, I think Mandani is a seriously capable who articulates a kind of wild left, you know, by American standards anyway, kind of wild left politics that wouldn't play very well outside New York. But he won the New York mayoral election. I mean, AOC was elected first elected the first time she won. She won a primary election against an incumbent Democrat with six by winning by winning 16000 votes. She wins her very safe district in the in the Bronx, you know, every year by getting maybe, you know, 50, 60, 70 ,000 every two years.

9:30But she's completely untested on the national stage. So. So, yeah, I mean, the populism thing, I'm sure is true. I mean, on that, I think there is a, you know, I think the Democrats are looking to some extent for someone who can, you know, who is outside the political mainstream. Casey, I had a really interesting conversation with a leading Wall Street Democrat, raises a ton of money for the party, was very close to Barack Obama and indeed also to Kamala Harris. and you know he said that he and a bunch of the big sort of wall street donors were democrats were given a presentation a polling presentation by a democratic polling group which done a massive survey across the country over the last month testing issues testing candidates for 2028 testing for the midterms all this kind of stuff the most interesting finding and this i think for british readers british viewers this will come as a real surprise because They probably don't even know the name.

10:23But the guy who polled best in terms of potential presidential material for 2028 was Mark Cuban. He sort of shot, rose to fame really more through, he bought the Dallas Mavericks basketball team. And he's a big sort of basketball, big sports figure. He is a big TV, it was a big TV person. And he very interestingly, here is where the sort of Trump comparison comes in. He kind of fronted this. So one of them was one of the main characters on this very successful show called Shark Tank. And he was one of the lead characters on this. He's been a big, big Democratic donor, given a lot of money to Democrats.

10:59He has talked publicly about possibly running for president. I think it's interesting because I think there's a chance here that to your point about AOC and talking about Gavin Newsom, there's a pretty good chance that Democrats might look for an outsider, just as the Republicans did in 2016. There's a lot of interest in Democrats in a complete outsider. They know that the party's brand is incredibly low esteem. The leading figures are these figures, you know, Gavin Newsom, maybe Kamala Harris, people who are not seen as part of the sort of mainstream. And the hunt is really on for someone who can kind of do a Trump, come in, look completely fresh, completely new, have a bit of a populist message.

11:39And Cuban does that. The other name that's also talked about, and by the way, he's fueled this speculation in the last work, and another name that will not be known to Brits but worth watching out for in the next year or so is Stephen A. Smith. Stephen A. Smith is a very, very entertaining, charismatic, funny, smart, African-American sports presenter. He's kind of like, God forbid, God strike me down for saying this, but he's got his kind. I mean, he's a much funnier, brighter, more engaging, entertaining version of a kind of a Gary Lineker. And he's talking about running for president. So I think, look, who knows?

12:15Maybe they'll do what they always do and end up with a fairly mainstream politician. But I think the Democrats are looking for something dramatic and new and different. And that's why these names that, again, have not been talked about in politics before with two and a half years to go until we start really getting into the election, until we come to the election. I think these names are going to circulate. And I think the Democrats are in search of something like that. And I think that's also why when we look at some of the public polling to date, it has often been Kamala Harris is still at the front or Gavin Newsom is.

12:49But then you obviously have to take into account that's largely because of name recognition. and therefore is not given what would expect in the build-up to try to get that nomination. And you think how Pete Buttigieg, for example, did when he emerged as the mayor. There is that space for that wildcard. A lot can change. But I do wonder in the sense, I think we're about to enter a world of, maybe I might even write one, of end the Gavin Newsom profiles as he tries to ramp it up. There was a big one in The New Yorker that's recently come out. But Gavin Newsom has coming out what I think is often a telltale sign that you have leadership ambitions.

13:27Well, I think there are two. One is a podcast, and he's already done that. And the second is a book, and the book arrives next week. At least it's published in the US next week. And this is Young Man in a Hurry, which is going to be Gavin Newsom's personal story. Now, from my experience, Gerry, from the UK at least, whenever a politician wants to tell you about their personal story, it is because they do harbour leadership ambitions. and you do have a situation where no one will quite say it publicly. But, for example, we have signs that some of the Democratic establishment is already moving behind Gavin Newsom.

13:59Nancy Pelosi, the former Speaker of the House, has kept saying he would make a very good president. Gavin Newsom, it feels to me, is seen as the front of the pack right now, not just because he has name recognition, but because he has managed to create space for himself. So, for example, the redistricting, I think, was a point where lots of figures started to take Gavin Newsom a bit more seriously. He was maybe sceptical before where the Republicans obviously tried to stack the decks when it came to the midterms and Gavin Newsom managed to bring it through changes in California that could help the Democrats.

14:31And I think it's also his tone online. He's almost taken the language of Donald Trump when you look at his social media presence. You know, when we had the Super Bowl last week, he was saying, you know, how much he loved Bad Bunny and kind of leaning slightly for the cultural fights to differentiate himself. And that, at least, is a temporary measure, seems to be cheering some Democrats up. Yeah, look, Gavin Newsom is the Democratic governor of the largest state in the country. He, of course, will be a leading candidate for president, assuming he wants it. And all the indications are that he does.

15:00And he has name recognition. He has money. He has huge contacts in the Democratic Party. All of those elements of the Democratic primary are in place for him. But we have seen, Katie, time and time and time again that the front runner at this stage very often just sort of fades and disappears because as people get into the campaign, things like, you know, name recognition become less important because other names are in there. You know, the best example I can give you, and I remember it vividly, is I remember interviewing Jeb Bush at this stage of the 2016 cycle. That is, in other words, in sort of early 2014.

15:34Jeb Bush had a lead in the Republican opinion polls of about 50 points. And someone called Donald J. Trump was, you know, was at about three or four percentage points in the poll. So I just I have a suspicion that this may be different in the Democrat. The Democratic Party typically does tend to pick the kind of, you know, the sort of supposedly the kind of the one who's due up next. That's been the case in the last few elections. I think it could be different and they could be looking for something from completely out of left field, as they say. But let's take a break there. When we come back, we will be talking about the latest on Iran, U.S.

16:07buildup and the military buildup in the Middle East continues. And also we'll be looking back at the life and legacy of Jesse Jackson, who died this week. We're back. We're going to be talking about Jesse Jackson shortly and Jerry's encounter with him. But before we get there, let's briefly look at Iran. Now, Jerry, we've been talking about escalating tensions between the US and Iran in recent episodes. There's lots of coverage in both our newspapers on this. But as ever, it's coming to a question of if and whether Donald Trump is going to press the button. Do you think things are now heating up to a point when it comes to everything that he's done in terms of actioning military, moving things there, the fact that J.D.

16:45Vance has expressed frustration at the most recent talks? Yeah, it's Groundhog Day, isn't it? That military buildup, which we first talked about several weeks ago, is continuing. I saw somebody this morning quoted saying that pretty well everything in the US Air Force that's got wings and is working is on its way to the Middle East. it is a massive build-up and we've already seen the first aircraft carrier group the Abraham Lincoln which is in the Indian Ocean the Arabian Sea I should say sorry the Gerald R Ford which was due to the second big carrier group which was in the Caribbean which was due for a maintenance break was that was actually postponed that is now steaming across the Atlantic Ocean on its way it's thought it's imagined to the it's expected to the Mediterranean where it will be in a position with its strike force to strike Iran, targets in Iran.

17:37But the most interesting thing, Katie, is this extraordinary airlift of, you know, not just of fighters and bombers, but of support aircraft, of tankers, of refuelers, of auxiliary aircraft. It's an extra, you know, from, by the way, a lot of it going out of the UK, from Lake and Heath, coming from across the continental United States, across the Atlantic. So it is, this is, you know, Trump described it as a beautiful armada, I think. You can choose your adjective however you like it. It is one of the biggest concentrations of certainly of US air and sea power that we've seen since, frankly, since the major military actions in the Middle East in the early part of this century.

18:16The question, of course, is, you know, is this all to put pressure on Iran to do a deal? These talks have been going on and off. They were on again this week and didn't seem to get very far. If it is to put pressure on Iran, the question is, what is the pressure on Iran to do? You know, the U.S. has been a little bit kind of Trump has been a bit sort of back and forth on what Trump wants Iran to do. The nuclear program. Yes, we know that. Give up the nuclear weapons program. That seems to be top of the list. But Trump has also talked about forcing them to give up their ballistic missile program and forcing them to stop any support for, you know, terrorists, essentially, and their proxies in the Middle East, Hezbollah and Hamas.

18:55we sometimes get a message from Trump that actually oh maybe those last two oh by the way and of course that also on top of all of that we had him saying in January that you know basically implying that he was going to use military action if Iran didn't stop killing its own people in those protests well those all those other ones seem to have been kind of a drop or sometimes they come up sometimes they don't and it all seems to be on the nuclear file as they call it and there is maybe maybe Iran now thinks that well by agreeing to some major concessions on the nuclear file it can it can it can avoid this massive military strike so we'll see whether or not the US is really what the US target is.

19:26And then the question, the second question is, if there is military action, you know, what's the end game? What is the US trying to achieve? I speak to people, military experts and people who've covered these things before. I don't get the sense that anybody really thinks that this armada is going to be able to produce regime change in Iran, which obviously is what the ultimate desideratum of the US government. I think the view is, you know, you can't keep a force like that on alert like that for very long. Something is going to either have to happen very soon. Either the Iranians are going to agree to some broad deal, some broad diplomatic climb down, or there's going to be military action.

20:05I'll just end by saying, you know, I read an Israeli former senior Israeli defense official and security official that was quoted this morning, I think, in the Israeli press is saying, I think twice about flying anywhere this weekend. I found that quite striking. Yeah, I think that when you speak to figures of the administration about this, obviously the official line is whatever the president, the commander in chief does, great. But I think there is just anxiety to your points about how do you do something which is limited and doesn't have these huge consequences, particularly when now and then the president talks about regime change.

20:39And the comparison I keep hearing from figures quite close to the White House is this wouldn't be like Venezuela for various reasons. It's a much bigger country. And also you can't put the deputy in and get them to half play ball with you. There's not a deputy ayatollah that has a different view in terms of the West and all these things. So I think that is what, if this does start to happen, it could be something that really dominates the rest of Donald Trump's presidents, whether he wants it to or not. Now, finally, we're going to be looking at Jesse Jackson, the American civil rights activist who, of course, passed away this week, once a presidential hopeful.

21:19And just to kick us off, let's hear his speech from 1988 when he did not get the Democratic nomination. I understand. Call you outcast, lowdown, you can't make it. You're nothing, you're from nobody, subclass, underclass. When you see Jesse Jackson, when my name goes in nomination, your name goes in nomination. I was born in Islam, but Islam was not born in me. And it wasn't born in you. Jerry, you met the man. Yeah, I mean, it's a remarkable career, obviously. You know, from very, very young acolytes of Dr. Martin Luther King. Very, very famously, we've all seen the pictures of King about, you know, just when he was assassinated on the balcony of the Lorraine Motel in Atlanta in 1968.

22:10There is Jesse Jackson, you know, very, very young Jesse Jackson right there with him. Very much a leading figure in that movement. To become a political figure in his own right, it has to be said, you know, a controversial figure. in the 1980s associated with some of the more extremist African-American black politicians, famously and notoriously, you know, some who said some quite outrageous things, including some anti-Semitic things. But he did become this, you know, this, I mean, as the Democratic Party struggled to deal with, you know, Ronald Reagan and the changes in American politics that came about in, you know in the night it came about in world politics in the 1980s when people rejected kind of the left and they rejected sort of in europe they rejected socialism and then you know over here they rejected the left of the the party you know he still managed to have this this quite powerful pull on voters you just mentioned he ran for president ran twice actually but he ran particularly famously in 1988 and lost i met him at the democratic convention in 1992 at which point you know i think he'd already i don't think he'd given up on his political ambitions at that point.

23:20But I think he was already, you know, realizing that perhaps his brand of, you know, race based kind of left left wing Democratic politics was, you know, while it was going to be always important, the Democratic Party was never he was never going to get there himself to the, you know, to the Democratic ticket and was looking for ways. Then at that point, I remember, to how could he maintain his influence? And I think to be fair to him, And, you know, after that, the trajectory of his career, he did become more of a mainstream figure. He, you know, obviously then Barack Obama was elected in 2008.

23:55And I remember him being asked about what he thought about the election of the first black president, whether he thought it would be him. And he said he said some very, you know, very actually gracious and complimentary words about Obama's talents and sort of, you know, suggesting that perhaps he didn't have them. I was going to ask you that, Jerry. I mean, he obviously achieved some things abroad when you look at some of the often freelance missions he went on to speak to often communist leaders, leaders on the left and secured, you know, the return of some US citizens and so forth. But to that point, do you think that Barack Obama's path to the presidency was aided by Jesse Jackson?

24:32Because obviously he went for the nomination twice. I think the second time around was seen as, you know, at least initially almost potentially having a path to it. And afterwards, people said that, you know, he had made it he had made it the case that it was now in America seen as possible that a black man could become president. Yeah, I don't think he did, actually. I think if anything, I think I think Obama won to some extent by not being a kind of a Jesse Jackson figure. Jesse Jackson was in the 1980s. And again, he did try to repair this. But Jackson was a very divisive figure. I mean, he was seeing he wasn't on the far, far extreme left in the sort of Malcolm X kind of mold.

25:07But he had moved away from the kind of unifying message of King to a more explicitly, you know, one might even say confrontational antagonistic politics. And that was frankly never going to win. It was never going to get the Democratic nomination. And if it had got the Democratic nomination, it would never have won in the country. Obama won in 2008 by kind of, you know, by reassuring Americans that he wasn't that kind of person, that he wasn't looking to, you know, to divide the country, that actually he could be a uniter. So I think, you know, while Jackson, I say, was an enormously important figure, and as you say, also, you know, spent the latter part of his life doing some important work internationally, I think his political legacy in the US would have to be ranked a failure.

25:52And with that, thank you for joining the State of the US this week, and please do join us again next week. Thank you and goodbye.