Trump v Iran: what MAGA and the military are saying

0:02Hello and welcome to The State of It USA, a new podcast from The Times and The Sunday Times. I'm Gerry Baker. I'm editor-at-large of The Wall Street Journal and a columnist for The Times. I used to be editor-in-chief of The Wall Street Journal. Despite my accent, I've lived in the United States for 30 years and am an American citizen. I became one a few years ago. Seemed like a good idea at the time. I'm hoping it still is. And I am joined in this weekly podcast by my colleague, the Washington editor of The Times and The Sunday Times, Katie Balls. Katie. Yeah, I am not a US citizen. And I moved here seven slash eight months ago after 10 years in Westminster.

0:41And now I have my Sunday column Washington Insider and spend much of my time discovering the various delights of DC, the power capital of the world. And as it's such a social city, I think to know what's going on, you need to go out. And you go across the river to find a CIA bash, then you'll end up at a MAGA one and then a Democrat one. And that is how I have been spending my time since coming to this country. Katie is incredibly well connected in less than a year in Washington. She's already developed some extraordinarily good sources. I've been around, as I say, I'm in New York City. I've been around this business for 30 years.

1:17We're going to use our sources, our inside knowledge, the people that we know, to give you a kind of a real sense of what's going on, And rather than just constantly sit back in sort of awe and horror, as so many people do, what's going on in the United States today, we're going to try and give you a better understanding of what America is doing, whether or not you think it's terrible or whether or not you think it's potentially beneficial. We're going to try and use our reporting, use our insights to tell you what's happening, what Donald Trump's doing, what he's just done this week, what he may do next week, where American politics is going.

1:51And we'll talk also a little bit about the culture and broader social life of what's going on here in America. As I say, it's weekly. Please do give us your feedback. Please do sign up wherever you listen to your podcasts. We're going to start off this week. Katie, here we are. We are in the midst of yet another just constant series of extraordinary events and crises that just continue to sort of cascade in America and across the world. We're going to talk later in the show about these extraordinary and horrific events in Minneapolis that we saw last weekend with the killing of that protester Alex Pretty and what it means for what's happening in America, what it may mean for Trump, what comes next.

2:33But we're going to start off with something which we think is perhaps looking back, but maybe looking forward. As I say, we've had this just remarkable unfolding series of events in January alone. Next up does seem to be very likely military action against Iran. Remember, of course, these protests that have been going on in Iran over the went on over the last month or so. Donald Trump warned that if the Iranian government kept cracking down and killing people, he would strike. He seemed to back off a couple of weeks ago. He seemed to suggest that he wasn't going to do so. So everything I'm hearing, and I'd be interested to know what you're hearing too, Katie, but everything I'm hearing is that that was perhaps just a delaying tactic, a holding tactic, and that at any point now, perhaps in the next few days or week or two, the US is poised to undertake potentially a massive military campaign against Iran.

3:20This is not an invasion like Iraq, like 2003, but it's something rather more potentially than the operation last year that took out the Iranian nuclear facilities. Donald Trump, we're recording this on Wednesday morning, Donald Trump has warned in a truth social to the Iranian government that they've got to give up their nuclear program, they've got to basically surrender, or the United States will strike. I've been hearing some very, very interesting things from sources in the military and elsewhere that preparations in the region are at an advanced stage. Now, the US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln is now almost on site in the Indian Ocean.

3:52There's been massive movements of military aircraft to the major bases in the region, particularly the one the Qatar base, Al-Odade. There's been some evidence of evacuating of family members and others, not just the United States, but Britain and other countries, too. We do seem to be on the brink of something potentially really big here. Now, it could be it could be an attempt to sort of force the Iranians really genuinely to give up their nuclear program and really perhaps to stop the persecution of their own citizens. But it feels to me like this is not the kind of thing you assemble just as a threat.

4:24It's the kind of thing you do when you intend to take military action. What are you hearing and how do you think this might unfold in the next few days? Yeah, I mean, I think what's interesting on this one is you also have the president, as tends to often be the case, going on Truth Social to talk about some of these things. So he's saying, well, look at what we're moving. We're ready to go. Iran need to step back. They need to come to the table. So as ever, Donald Trump is trying to use the might is right approach, the art of the deal and so forth. it does feel as though behind the scenes so that everyone i think a few weeks ago when he walked back you had donald trump saying you know we're here to help and then i was walking back from it and lots of people said well actually are you helping these iranians and but his point was that he had managed to stop there being some executions i think to your point jerry from some of the conversations you're having it does not feel it's gone away and i think perhaps one of the bigger blockers and it would be interesting your thoughts on this had actually been more the interventions from Middle East and Gulf states when Trump was thinking about taking action.

5:26And therefore, when you speak to figures close to the White House, the point that I've heard more is, what are those countries saying now? Is it now the case that John Trump has this space to move? Because I think that has been a bigger consideration than what a few kind of magaspear figures might be saying on the various shows. Yeah, I think, look, two things. You're absolutely right about, obviously, the reaction of governments in the region. I've noticed in the last 24 hours that both the government of the UAE, the Emirates and the Saudi government now both said that there are reports, I should say anyway, that they both told the Iranian government that they will not permit the US to use any military bases in their countries.

6:04And of course, there are bases in the US as bases in both of those countries. And I was like you, Casey, I have to confess, sorry, listeners, but I was in Davos last week, had some lots of interesting conversations with senior figures in governments around the world. It does seem to me that the Arab governments in particular do not want this, do not want a war in Iran. They're very nervous about it. They're very comfortable with where Iran is right now. Iran is a weakened government, doesn't threat its enemies, its neighbors in the region in the way that it did. They don't want turmoil that might result from a massive U.S.

6:35attack, which could lead to the kind of disruption. So there's diplomatic pushback there. One thing that's interesting, Katie, and I tried to talk about this a little bit with people in Davos last week, is Trump obviously, you know, once again, not for the first time, he blew up what remains of the Western alliance last week with his extraordinary performance on Greenland and then kind of backing down in Greenland. And we had the whole, you know, we all heard Mark Carney and everybody else talk about, well, it's really the end of the West. I wonder whether this, how this might impact the alliance.

7:04You've got to think, there's no sympathy, I think, for the Iranian government among European governments. But I don't think any of them are going to get involved in this action if it does happen. But I do wonder whether this is perhaps something that may help Trump perhaps to move on from the kind of, you know, frankly, the sort of the horror show that we had over the last week with the rupture within NATO. And maybe once again look like the U.S. is kind of doing the right thing here by going after a regime that has murdered tens of thousands of its own citizens. It seems that is a pariah that is, you know, that is unquestionably the bad guy.

7:37And I wonder whether that might kind of help to perhaps to improve relations in the Western Alliance or whether those countries will all say this is crazy, mad. The US is taking too many risks here. I think that's going to be something we're going to have to watch. Yeah, I think having both been in Davos, though, it was my Davos debut. And what was it for you, Gerry? Number 16 or 17. I've lost track. OK, Davos man. So coming in as a baby to Davos on quite a unique, obviously, gathering compared to previous ones with the Trump circus rolling into town, the biggest US delegation to ever go to Davos, USA House everywhere and so forth.

8:18But as you say, the whole week was really dominated by European panic over what Trump was saying over Greenland. And the sense that, you know, after that speech, I had various figures say to me they were relieved because it walked down this threat to obviously invade Greenland saying he wasn't actually going to take it by force. But then I had CEOs and European figures going, yeah, it is something when there's relief and the news line is that, you know, the de facto leader of the free world is saying that he's not going to invade a NATO ally. Made his ally. That's right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, wonderful.

8:51What could you? But it did mean in a way that was so much the focus that really some of these other conversations about Iran, Ukraine were pushed slightly back in terms of what the US is doing on Russia. And lots of people say, oh, this is 5G chess from Donald Trump. He's just so clever. He's managed to distract everyone in Greenland. I'm not sure if it's quite that. But certainly, I think heading back from that summit, it felt as though the Greenland issue are not perhaps been a distraction, but it hadn't really cut free to some of the bigger decisions that the US is thinking about in the coming weeks and months.

9:25And I think on Iran, clearly, that's something where there's going to be some countries who will actually be quite relieved if Donald Trump took action, but really, particularly if they didn't have to kind of get involved in the complicated bits themselves, and the US took it off their hands. But it always depends how these things go. And you can expect the European leaders, whatever happens, to start talking about, We mustn't escalate, you know, calm times, which isn't really ever the US approach. Just quickly, Katie, because we want to take a break. But you've been you have been doing in your time in Washington, a lot of reporting among the MAGA crowd, among the Republican crowd.

9:59You've already developed some very good sources there. You've written a lot about this, the Times and the Sunday Times. In fact, if I'm Davos Man, Katie, I think we have to think of you as MAGA woman. Maybe maybe that's the maybe that's a better title. Maybe that's a better title for the podcast. Davos Man meets MAGA woman. But, you know, what's just very quickly, this is not, I think, you know, going after Venezuela, bombing Iran, perhaps launching a major war against Iran, you know, talking about taking over Greenland, talking about saying this is not what I really think, you know, again, this is not what the MAGA crowd signed up for.

10:31They didn't necessarily think they were going to get an isolationist president. I think that was always a misunderstanding. But Trump seems to be, you know, year two now of his second term seems to be, you know, like there are no worlds he doesn't want to conquer. How is this going down? It's been quite notable. And we haven't heard a lot from J.D. Vance, you know, who seems to be the kind of keeper of the flame in this respect. We haven't heard even anything from the Tucker Carlson's of the world have been very critical of some of this stuff. How is it how's it playing, do you think, in MAGA world?

10:58This, you know, suddenly the U.S., you know, just invading countries left, right and center. I think it's actually always a bit more complicated in the sense that, as you say, this is a base which is always, they're against forever wars. They want America first. But the issue is, of course, people define America first in different ways. And Donald Trump thinks that he defines it however he likes because he is the commander in chief. But I think different walls have different stories to tell. And therefore, Venezuela, for example, there's something that almost every part of the administration can get behind a bit on that.

11:32So J.D. Vance, war on drugs. He might be more of an isolationist, but he said that's the best use of military power is actually using it to protect America's backyard and therefore America. For Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, it obviously plays to him because you think, you know, son of Cuban immigrants coming to this country. and then you even kind of Pete Heskiff in his Department of War. I think that the optics of kind of this late night raid and the sheer force is something that lots of Americans admire in terms of how it was carried out before you get into the repercussions of it. So it all comes together.

12:07But then I think you have the ones where if it is regime change, which is two words that send shivers down the spine so many in the mega base, that's when people start to start thinking how long is the US going to be involved? Why are we going so far away? But there is, I think, a thread of logic to some of the things we've seen in 2026. Most of the figures. I was in Arizona just before Christmas at Turning Point Festival, which is Charlie Kirk obviously assassinated, but it was his organisation that continues now. And J.D. Vance gave the closing speech. It was very much the party faithful. And he was really implying that domestic was going to be the focus.

12:45So I think that is the combination of regime change and concerns about the midterms, which make people feel a little bit worried where Trump is focused. And is Trump thinking all about legacy at the moment when it comes to how he'll be remembered? But I think if there is a clean way, obviously, there's a big question, by the way, to expand the map of America and make America stronger and everything more in Trump's image nearby. That's something MAGA can largely get behind. The issue is things are never normally that simple. Well, maybe they'll have an empire in which the sun never sets. Who would have thought that's a possibility?

13:21Look, we're going to take a quick break there. When we come back, we're going to talk about things domestic and the rather grim and bleak stuff that we saw on the streets of Minneapolis at the weekend and what its implications are for the US. So we're going to take a break. Please stay with us. We'll be right back. We're back and now we're going to be looking at what's been happening in Minneapolis this week. Now, Gerry, when we look at the killing of Alex Pretty on Saturday, this, of course, was the second death related to an ice raid related to bystanders getting involved on the scene. And both initially had a situation where you had the White House coming out, fighting, really, saying there was nothing to see here, that the ice troops were doing everything they could.

14:05and the first time around with a mother, Renee Good, that seemed to work for the White House broadly. This time around, it's been a lot more complicated. And I think what we're now beginning to see is almost a blame game playing out across the administration as to early statements and a sense that Trump himself is clearly working out that he potentially does have a domestic problem on his hands. Yeah, Katie, look, I think this is a turning point for the administration, maybe arguably a turning point more broadly for America in the Trump years, that people absolutely supported Donald Trump's effort.

14:40Large numbers of people, I should say. He had solid majority support for his efforts to crack down on illegal immigration. There's no getting away from it. It has been a massive, massive problem, a phenomenon in the United States, particularly under Joe Biden. Millions and millions of people led into this country illegally, quite frankly, quite willfully. So I think there was a lot of support for what Trump, the principle of what Trump was doing. He closed the border, has been very, very successful in that. There's been almost no illegal border crossings in the year since he became president again.

15:08And there was some support for rounding up illegal immigrants, people who were here. Some of these illegal immigrants had committed serious crimes. There were gang members. Some of them had been either found guilty or involved in all kinds of illicit activity. And people wanted those people removed. And there was an argument within the administration about whether they should focus initially on that or whether they should go more broadly and essentially pick up anybody in the country who's, you know, however long they've been here, however peaceful they've been, however law-abiding they've been, they're out.

15:41That was controversial in some respects. People, I think, were prepared to go along with it when particularly the latter group in the administration, led by Stephen Miller, Deputy White House Chief of Staff, particularly drove for this. Look, no, people want anybody who's here illegally out. We started to see these sort of episodes of people being picked up on the street, grandmothers being sort of dragged out of vehicles, people who've lived here for 20 years, never really put a foot wrong. And particularly this frankly very unsettling spectacle of these guys seemingly dressed for the Battle of Fallujah in army gear, loaded to the nines, masked, getting out of unmarked cars.

16:19It seemed really to disturb some people, but I think, again, people were prepared to go along with it. The shootings in Minneapolis, particularly, obviously, the horrendous shooting that we saw at the weekend of for this guy, Alex Preti, has, I think, really changed opinion. I think two things have happened. I think Trump's numbers on immigration were falling before this. I think they're going to fall much more dramatically after this. I think, you know, but it's pretty clear that at absolute minimum, those those Border Patrol officers behaved with reckless behavior, you know, inexcusably reckless behavior, whatever you think of what the guy was doing and whether he should have been there or not.

16:56Just extraordinary. So I think several things happen. First, I think Trump's numbers. People are really alarmed by this. This is really concerned a lot of Americans. His approval rate is getting going to decline. We've seen a number of Republicans now. We've talked about this, Katie, you and I in our conversations over the last few months. And you've written about this. I've written about this. Republicans have been very reluctant to criticize Trump to come out. They sort of poked their head above the parapet a couple of times on a couple of issues. But it's still very, very low level. On this, there was a pretty broad, almost across the board, condemnation, but calls for investigations, calls for inquiries.

17:31You heard it from senators, including some senators who have not notably criticized anything that Trump said. Some House members came out, too, and talked about the need for an investigation. So this has really opened up, I think, the concern in the Republican Party. And then I think the other phenomenon is what Trump does about these people who are driving this policy. It's been quite notable to me that Trump, you know, for all the caricatures of Trump as this, you know, orange beast, he's quite sensitive about things. He doesn't like, you know, these grotesque sort of displays of force where everybody, even after the woman was killed, Renee Good, a couple of weeks ago, where so many Republicans came out and said, too bad, shouldn't have been there.

18:11She was driving her car at the officer. You know, he came out and actually said it was a tragedy. I'm sorry it happened. And he also then at the weekend after this killing of Alex Preti, again, sounded a much more, dare I say, empathetic note than some of the people in his administration. And I just, again, you know a lot of these people well, Katie, spent a lot of time with them. I think there is going to be a notable shift here. We've already seen Homan, the border czar, has now taken over in Minneapolis from the absolutely hideous Kristi Noem. You know, the woman, by the way, who boasted about shooting her own puppy in her book.

18:44I mean, we could be surprised that she ended up in the position where she is with what's going on in Minneapolis. So we've got this guy who's coming in to replace her. The guy who sort of does Nazi cosplay activity, Greg Bovino, likes to dress up like Heinrich Himmler. He's been moved out. I think there's a change of certainly a change of at least the imagery of the presentation. And I think there's going to be some, you know, quite significant change in the reality of the policy, too. But I know what are you hearing? Yeah, I think it's interesting, the blame game ever since. And you mentioned Kristi Noem, for example.

19:17Now, I think one of the differences between first term Trump and second term Trump is there was a lot more turnover first term Trump, right? Partly because I think many of the people he put in his cabinet or his White House had their own agenda. They were not as loyal to him. And they also just at times they tried to restrain the president and tell him things he didn't want to hear. and that happens a lot less with this second term. So therefore, you often do get these stories saying, Tulsi Gabbard's going to be sacked, Kristi Noem's on the way out. And as of yet, we haven't really seen Trump take action like that.

19:52But certainly, it feels as though you just look at the actions and you join the dots and you can see that there is a bit of a recalibration going on. And I think that lots of insiders in DEC have said the Tom Homan approach versus the Kristi Noem approach is a little bit different. I remember speaking to a congressman on the Hill just before Christmas. And this is obviously long before we see, you know, the civilian deaths on this. And he was saying, this Republican, that he was worried about immigration and how it's backfiring in his state. Because it was one thing, obviously, saying we're getting the numbers down.

20:30We fixed problems that Biden didn't get to. But it's another thing he said, if you're picking up the local granny who turns up to work every day. And that's where they felt it began to cross from going for criminals, those people who shouldn't be there for various misdemeanors, anti-social behavior to people who didn't have the papers. So, yes, they're illegally, but they feel as though they are providing to the community and they felt like there had been a big shift there. I think this adds to that. And I think what's quite interesting here is the role of Stephen Miller. He mentioned earlier the deputy chief of staff.

21:04And in many ways, you have a conversation about who has power in the White House. And to be honest, the main answer is always going to be Donald Trump is often influenced by the last person he spoke to. but I think when you speak about the advisors Stephen Miller's name increasingly comes up and I think that he is seen as one of the most intellectually coherent in that group in the sense that he has his views I've spoken to colleagues of his he will say he's hard to debate because he'll just bring up an example of law from you know or a historic case from 75 years ago or they say oh but you don't know the 26th and then if the person says oh I don't know that Then he said, well, how can you possibly have this debate with me?

21:46So he sees himself as one of the, I think, intellectuals of the movement. And on immigration, this is his baby. This has been the thing that he has been pushing and pushing and pushing. And initially, when we started to get the details over the weekend of what had happened, Stephen Miller came out pretty hard. And there's now been a clarification since then, blaming intel he had received for why he said the things he did, suggesting that mistakes were made, but they're not in his area. So there are a bunch of people saying Stephen Miller is going to bring us down at the midterms. Trump must distance himself from Stephen Miller.

22:18I cannot see that happening. He is one of the president's closest advisers. But I think it shows you which way the wind is blowing, that Stephen Miller is even slightly walking back what he said. And I think that does show you that going forward, I think that Donald Trump is realising that it's probably tipping too far one way in how he is selling his immigration drive to the country. Who has the president's ear, Katie, here? It was quite striking. As you said, the first reaction when the news came through, I just landed back actually from Europe. And I just remember seeing on my phone the reports of this shooting on Saturday morning.

22:52The immediate response to the administration was just as it was after the René Good shooting. This was a domestic terrorist. It was pretty obvious from the pictures that the truth was rather different. But how do you think, from your knowledge of the way they talk of the world, who do you think, who is the president here? Who went? Is it Susie Wiles who says this isn't good? I think that you look at the events this week and there was a meeting about this that Stephen Miller was not at, for example, that Susie Wiles was. And you can imagine that, you know, she's one of the figures as the chief of staff who needs to check what's happening.

23:26But I think Trump himself has an acute antenna on this and is obviously always watching Fox News, always keeping an eye on the US media. And certain the US media response to this, I think, has been quite a good indicator that this was not something where, you know, the happy Trump faithful could all take to social media and say all these liberal tears, let's move on and so forth. It felt as though lots of the places which tend to, you know, perhaps give Trump more benefit of the doubt than some would like were actually saying, hang on a minute. These these bits don't join up. What's going on? I think that will have been something which the president pays quite close attention to.

24:04I mean, I just wonder, Gerry, one of our Times colleagues this week, Giles Corrin, has written an article in which he said that he's cancelled his holiday to America after reading about the events of the weekend, saying America is no longer a safe place. Now, I have little to compare to seven slash eight months in. But what do you think? Do you think America is still a safe place or compared to, I suppose, when you first arrived to now, where would you rank it? Yeah, look, I'm tempted to say a rather provocative thing, which is, you know, if you want to come over here and sort of get yourself in front of law enforcement officers as they try to make arrests of illegal immigrants, then America is probably not a safe place.

24:46If you want to come here and go and visit Disney World or come to the World Cup games or whatever, in America it's a safe place. And by the way, interestingly, the crime rate in America, and there will be some people who would say these are not necessarily unconnected events, a dramatic decline in illegal immigration. The crime rate in most big cities in America has fallen dramatically in the course of the last year. America is still a more dangerous place than most British cities, but most American cities have got a lot safer. I think most people would be pretty safe. If we're almost out of time, Katie, but I do want to move on to one very, very quick, small other thing.

25:19One person who did come out quite unusually for her, Melania Trump has been very much a kind of seen and not heard throughout pretty well Trump's public life. She did come out with a little video at the weekend calling for people to come together and calling for peace. It was quite, quite striking that my first reaction was, well, that's interesting. And then, of course, I remembered she may have actually had a particular reason for doing that. Some might call it a rather cynical commercial reason, but there's a movie out there, right? Melania, the film, which is released on Friday. And there will be a premiere at the, I said the Kennedy Center the other day, and then I realized it's now the Trump Kennedy Center after Trump had the board vote in favor of him.

26:02So at the Trump Kennedy Center, there's going to be this big premiere. And as you say, it meant that Melania, the first lady, was doing some press. but I think of two things probably on this first off I mean I've actually spent a little bit of time following around the first lady since I've been here I saw her in New York when she launched her first ladies club effectively this charity where working with other first ladies spouses of political leaders on issues affecting children AI and so forth and then I've seen her around DC doing some of her charity work I once traveled in a Melania motorcade but I do think compare have first term Melania and second term Melania and there is quite a difference I think in the first term there was just a feeling that she didn't really want to be there and also she was heavily criticized in the media for various reasons from getting the Christmas decorations wrong to you know this idea she could never get a Vogue cover and she also she one of the Christmas decoration rooms there's these red Christmas trees and everyone said it looked like the Handmaid's Tale.

27:04And then that was used, obviously, as a analogy for how Trump was ruining women's rights across America. So she just, you know, the whole thing looked quite miserable. Whereas I think second term, she's clearly trying to embrace the role more. And to the point we were making earlier, which is this White House, I don't think there is much in the way of dissenting voices around Donald Trump. Now, I'm not suggesting that Melania is the official opposition to Donald Trump, but you almost think of all the people he speaks to regularly, he might have their own views. I think the first lady on Ukraine, we know that she has influenced him to a degree there.

27:38He says he'll come home after speaking to Putin. And I had a great call with Vladimir. And I said, well, that's nice, but I've just watched the TV and they just killed this number of, you know, children. And similarly on Palestine, you get the sense that she has a bit more influence and is enjoying taking up the space. As for where this film is going to be a great commercial success, Yes, let's see. I will be keeping a close eye on the cinemas, but certainly everyone in DC I'm speaking to is desperately trying to get a ticket to this premiere on Thursday. Well, every Republican. I'm not sure the Democrats are quite so keen.

28:11Have you had a preview or have you seen any clips, anything at all of the movie? I haven't seen any clips yet. We've been getting various briefings about how closely involved she is and the vision and the style, but they have kept it very closely under wraps. And I also think she's been heavily involved in it. So this one is tightly controlled and therefore is unlikely to have something which is going to, you know, be against the First Lady's will. I have a feeling that the official line, at least in the White House and quite possibly from Amazon, I have a feeling that there will be this will be one of the greatest movies of all time.

28:43And it'll be quite interesting to see where Trump obviously got very upset about not winning a Nobel Peace Prize last year. If this doesn't get nominated for at least, what, 15 Academy Awards next year, you know, we can expect to see more of Trump's wrath, I suspect. Well, look, Katie, we are out of time for this week. We're off the inaugural episode of The State of It USA. Kate from Katie Balls in Washington and me, Jerry Baker in New York. Thanks for joining us. Do join us again next week. In the meantime, have a great week.