Why the naysayers are wrong about the Maga World Cup

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1:17Katy Balls: Grainger, for the ones who get it done.

1:27Gerard Baker: Hello and welcome to the State of It USA. I'm Katie Balls, Washington editor and columnist for The Times and Sunday Times.

1:34Katy Balls: And I'm Gerry Beaker, editor-at-large of The Wall Street Journal and columnist for The Times.

1:38Gerard Baker: Today we're going to be talking about the MAGA World Cup, the latest on escalation when it comes to Iran, and Trump's milestone turning 80, which he is marking with a big fight in his back garden. The World Cup is here in America dominating the news and also dominating social media with lots of clips of tourists and football players becoming accustomed to how America works these days. Every few hours, it's another story.

2:04Katy Balls: Another story about fans denied, players denied, officials denied, journalists denied. Now refs? Expensive tickets, the most expensive tickets ever. Expensive accommodation, transport through the roof.

2:21Gerard Baker: Lots of people are not feeling particularly welcome. Perhaps the MAGA welcome is not a welcome for certain countries. And this World Cup is not going to go to plan or go down as one of the greats. What do you say to that?

2:33Katy Balls: Yeah, well, first of all, I object to calling it the MAGA World Cup. I think that's a little extreme and unfair. This is the US, Canada, Mexico World Cup. And let's not forget Canada and Mexico after all. But secondly, this is a World Cup. But, you know, Americans, indeed, as I write in my Times column this week, Americans are warming to football, soccer, as of course they insist on calling it. And I think that actually the World Cup will get a lot more attention this year than the last time it did. It was played here in 1994. And I think also reflects a kind of a wider sense that Americans, as I say, is becoming much more familiar with the sport than they used to be.

3:09Katy Balls: All that said, it was always going to be a challenge to mount the World Cup in Donald Trump's America for a lot of people because Trump obviously is firstly not the most popular man around the world. Secondly, presiding over an administration that's got a lot of hostility to a lot of parts of the world and including some very restrictive immigration enforcement. I think on top of that, you've also got this criticism. I think the larger the larger critique here from people who are unhappy with the World Cup, which we should say, by the way, hasn't even actually started as we speak. We're recording this on Thursday morning.

3:52Katy Balls: New York time starts in a few hours time down in Mexico with the first game between Mexico and South Africa. But before the tournament has even started, there is a huge amount of commentary out there in the media and elsewhere outside the United States, we should say, saying this is a disaster. It's, you know, for all the reasons we've just talked about, America shouldn't be hosting the World Cup. And there is this sense that this is the extreme example of the prostitution of football, particularly FIFA, perhaps professional sports in general, to the gods of money and power. And this is the commercialization, the corporatization, the control of sport, of the World Cup in particular, by these massive corporate interests, massive powerful corporate interests.

4:41Katy Balls: You know, things like the fact that the ticket prices are absurd, have been absurdly priced. So there's a general kind of coming together here of a dislike of FIFA, dislike of Donald Trump, dislike of the corporate sort of, you know, the corporatization of sports. And so there's a lot of commentary out there saying, my God, this is the worst World Cup ever. Well, you know, I've got to say I beg to differ a little bit. I don't dispute any of some of those criticisms. I think some of them are fair, particularly on the ticket prices. I think on the restrictions on movement, and there's been a lot of attention obviously paid this week to the banning and the removal of the Somali referee.

5:21Katy Balls: His name I think is Omar Abdul Akhada Atan. You know, again, very unfortunate, not a very good look for the United States. I should even say there though that Somalia is fundamentally a failed state right now. The U.S. has imposed very strong immigration restrictions on people coming to this country from countries that are chaotic and breeding grounds for terrorism. So, you know, without in any way impugning this man's own actions, despite what the administration said about some of his connections, it's not completely unreasonable that the U.S., which is imposing very aggressive immigration restrictions right now.

5:58Gerard Baker: On that, Gerry, we had a Human Rights Watch director coming out saying that the World Cup is unfolding against a backdrop of abusive immigration enforcement in the United States, banning off a referee whose job it is to work at the World Cup, threats to media freedom and discrimination.

6:12Katy Balls: Yeah, I mean, you know, other people, people can take different views on this. I think a lot of people kind of listening and watching to this in Britain, where this is a very hot topic right now will also think, well, you know, there's a balance between letting anybody into the country who can commit horrible crimes and having a reasonable immigration policy that makes your country open to people who actually really want to be here, really want to be in the country and really want to contribute to it. So, look, we'll see how it goes. Again, it's going to start right now. We will see what happens as the games actually start.

6:45Katy Balls: There's a lot of concern about whether or not some of these games will actually be sold out because these ticket prices were so high. And there's, as I say, a concern about whether or not Americans are really paying very much attention. I tend to maybe this is the American in me that I've become, I'm pretty optimistic about it I think this is the biggest tournament ever let's see how the tournament actually unfolds, let's see what the football is like, let's see what the crowds are like, let's see what the American engagement with the tournament is like before rushing to immediately condemn it, I think there's a tendency to people to condemn anything associated with Donald Trump and since this World Cup is associated with them, they're quick to condemn it I'm looking forward to it.

7:24Gerard Baker: Yeah, and not quite the World Cup. Last night I was at the Congressional Baseball Tournament in D.C. And speaking to some of the Americans there, they were saying that they were enjoying all these videos. So, for example, Texas, where we're getting the first England match, all these Brits arriving and, you know, schoolchildren trying Texas barbecue for the first time. So perhaps it will work both ways on being infectious.

7:47Katy Balls: Yeah, no, I do think that's right. And I think, you know, one of the things sort of exploded on social media other than the criticism is this very amusing. I don't know if you've been following it, but this is German guy making his first ever visit to the United States. He's been sort of tweeting or ex-posting, as we must say, say, I suppose, his experience traveling over the states. And it's just gone down and absolutely he's loving it. First of all, he's absolutely loving everything about it from the, you know, from the gas stations to the barbecue to the people who've been greeting him very warmly.

8:18Katy Balls: And it's going down an absolute storm both over here in the US and in and actually in Germany. So, yeah. So, you know, look that you can make a lot of criticisms. I'm not a big fan of FIFA, to put it mildly. And, you know, we have seen Gianni Infantino, the FIFA boss, making some, you know, frankly, utterly absurd things. He had his press conference, of course, this week. The first press conference is that disastrous one back in Qatar, I think, where in Qatar of all places. he talked about how important and inclusive yeah how important it was to be inclusive and the World Cup was extremely inclusive even in a country like Qatar which of course has famously restrictive rules about human behaviour and famously of course Gianni Infantino described himself as feeling incredibly gay Today I feel African Today I feel gay Today I feel disabled He didn't have quite such a disastrous performance this time around But he has been behaving, frankly, in a slightly clownish way, and we can expect that.

9:19Katy Balls: Maybe sometimes it's good as well to just, you know, chill, relax. We work on everything. We try to solve everything. All this criticism of the World Cup in the United States, you know, let's remember the last two World Cups were held in Qatar and Russia. Neither of those, in my recollection, is exactly a bastion of human rights and the protection of minorities. So, yeah, I think some of that criticism needs to be put into a sort of wider context and we'll watch how it all unfolds.

9:50Gerard Baker: And we'll be coming on to Iran when it comes to the war. But even the Iran war, of course, has become a story as part of the World Cup because you have the Iran national soccer team. And there was a big debate about whether they should be allowed to play. you had I think Trump's envoy for special partnerships suggesting you know other teams could step in and take that slot and then Donald Trump said in a true social post the Iran national soccer team is welcome to the World Cup but I really don't believe it is appropriate that they be there for their own life and safety and so they are now participating but they are basing themselves in Mexico instead.

10:28Katy Balls: And there is this absolutely intriguing possibility Casey I'm not sure if you're quite as in the weeds of the tournament as I am.

10:33Gerard Baker: I suspect not.

10:35Katy Balls: But as you look at the so-called the bracket, which is, you know, the way where teams will go as they win or come second or third in their group and they advance, there is this possibility the way it's constructed. It's not likely, but it's not inconceivable that the United States could actually meet Iran, I think, in the round of 32 or in the round of 16 in, I think, Los Angeles, which would be quite a moment, I think, as the two countries are actually at war. So something to watch out for.

11:03Gerard Baker: I think lots of people, and the ticketing slightly feeds into it, they started to see FIFA, the World Cup as almost a political entity. And you think about that FIFA Peace Prize from a couple of months ago, all the sucking up that Infantinio has done to get Trump on side. And it does mean, I think, the fans are still, when the matches get going, going to be focused on that. But it has, I think, had an impact where it starts to feel more of a political venture than just what people would expect it to be a couple of years ago.

11:33Katy Balls: Look, absolutely. The sucking up to Trump has been absolutely ghastly. And again, FIFA is an organization with a well-earned reputation for having very dubious ethics. My favorite line that people had when Infantino awarded Trump that FIFA Peace Prize was that, Well, as we all know, with these major international sporting prizes, especially the FIFA, you know, it's OK. It's easy to win it once. But defending your title is really hard. So we'll really have to see who wins the second FIFA Peace Prize to really know whether or not Donald Trump really has been a great contributor to world peace.

12:09Gerard Baker: Before we go, Gerry, do you have any predictions as to who you think is going to get through? I suspect US-Iran might not happen, might be my prediction.

12:17Katy Balls: Yeah, you're probably right there. Look, I really want to believe for obvious reasons that England can do it. And I do think they have the team to do it. But just looking at the quality of France in particular and Spain to a lesser extent, I'd probably have to go with France. I think dreadful as that prospect would be. And I think for sort of a kind of a for a dark horse, a lot of people are not so dark now because people have talked about them. But just the quality of the Ecuador team or the Japan team to go a long way in the tournament. they'd be my picks what about you Katie I know you're following it very closely who are your

12:51Gerard Baker: picks well I managed to get Haiti in the time sweepstake so I'm not sorry sorry Haiti not particularly positive I suppose with England it's just it's a hope that gets you but I mainly watch the football for the penalty shootout so I like whoever is playing I want to get to the edge so we're now going to take a break and when we're back we'll be talking about from Iran football diplomacy to the Iran war and Trump's change of tack this week. Grainger knows when you're a procurement manager

13:23Katy Balls: for an office park, you're not managing one building. You're managing all of them. And to stay ahead, you need to see through walls and around corners. Lights about to fail, filters ready to clog, HVAC on its last leg. If you wait until something breaks, you're already behind. Count on Grainger for quality products, easy reordering and 24-7 support. Call 1-800-GRAINGER, click grainger.com, or just stop by. Grainger, for the ones who get it done.

13:54Katy Balls: Well, after pretty well, what is it now, two months of this rather uneasy ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, and to some extent on the sidelines, Israel. Iran, of course, a few days ago shot down that Apache helicopter, America-US Apache helicopter with a drone. The U.S. retaliated with some strikes on U.S. targets. And Donald Trump has just announced that there will be even more strikes coming against Iranian targets. And he's also once again raised the possibility that the Khark Island, the great center of Iran's oil refining industry in the Gulf, will be seized, as he's put it. He says they're going to seize and seize all the oil.

14:39Katy Balls: The U.S. was at pains earlier in these exchanges earlier this week to talk about this being defensive. What are you hearing?

14:46Gerard Baker: So initially, Trump threatened fresh strikes, announced drastic plans, only to fit a pattern of recent weeks where a few hours later he climbed down and said he was cancelling the strikes as actually he is very, very, very close to a deal. I mean, I was at the White House this morning. I was there first because they had this big tour ahead of the UFC fight. So there are a lot of journalists there, lots of advisers, and, you know, lots of members of the new media who tend to be pretty close to the White House, MAGA aligned. And, you know, there were jokes being made. Some were saying, oh, of course he's bombing Iran again because the Knicks lost and he got booed.

15:26Gerard Baker: There were people saying, well, Epstein's back in the news, of course he's bombing Iran. So I think there's a certain level of cynicism and scepticism when it comes to the war at this point, partly because it has been going on, obviously not long by the grand scheme of wars in, you know, historical context, But long by the expectation from what the White House first said this war was going to be, that, you know, a lot of people have switched off. I was speaking to one MAGA figure who, you know, as of many MAGA figures, they are part activist, part influencer, part journalist. And they were saying that they find their traffic when it comes to covering the war is now very low.

16:03Gerard Baker: There's a lot less interest in it. Early on, people wanted to know updates with every hour as to what was happening on the ground. That's not there. People know the price of gas has gone up. But there's certainly, I think, you know, people are a bit more disengaged. And therefore, when Trump says he's escalating and, you know, and these things are back on the table, there's not quite the same level of perhaps excitement's the wrong word. But early on, you know, everyone's saying what's going to happen. I don't get that anymore. But certainly when you get closer to, you know, what is Trump thinking on this?

16:35Gerard Baker: Of course, I think there is just a sense that he is growing incredibly frustrated with how long this is going on for the fact that these negotiations keep not going anywhere. And what you would keep hearing from figures in the White House and administration is just how difficult it is to negotiate with the Iranians because you are not dealing with one block. there's different groups even if you get two groups on side then another group says they don't like it and they're finding it to be a pretty near impossible exercise which does put you back in the escalation camp if you're trying to bring it to a close and I think that's where Trump is now finding himself but even there I think there is skepticism as to you know we've had posts in the past where he says it's going to be the end of a civilization and then pulls back So there is a little bit, I think, boy, he cried wolf as to where they think people, you know, how far he's really willing to go.

17:27Katy Balls: Yeah, all of that makes sense. Look, I mean, you're right about the distraction element here. The Epstein stuff, as you say, that's reported in The New York Times this week was damaging, certainly. Also very damaging was the inflation number that we got released this week. Inflation, consumer price inflation back above 4 percent. First time in three years since Joe Biden was president. And it was inflation, frankly, and the price level was basically the reason Donald Trump got elected. Donald Trump then kind of made a bit of a gaffe talking about it this week when he was asked about that inflation number, saying he thinks he thinks the inflation inflation is wonderful.

18:04Katy Balls: I love the inflation. You know why? Because as soon as this war is over, you know, I can say it now. Something you didn't know. You know, we've been taken out millions of barrels of oil. Nobody knows it. You know who doesn't know about it? Iran until right now.

18:21Gerard Baker: Which he then sought to later clarify in a phone call saying he didn't mean inflation per se, but he thought the numbers were better than expected.

18:29Katy Balls: We've talked about this a lot. The political situation for Donald Trump, you know, continues to be very – and for the Republicans, continues to be extremely bleak. With Iran, what you're getting is this tension between those, some of those around Trump and some of those who are not necessarily in the administration, but people who are kind of close to the administration, pushing very hard for, you know, to quote unquote, finish the job with Iran. There's a real concern among people who Trump listens to and talks to, people like Mark Levin, the Fox News commentator, who I saw this week actually as it happens, talking about this.

19:12Katy Balls: A lot of people kind of in the media, frankly, that Trump seems to listen to more than people inside his own administration who are pushing for a hard line. They want to, quote unquote, as I say, finish the job. But the advice he's getting from his military, as I understand, is, look, if by finish the job you mean take out the nuclear material, force Iran to reopen the strait, ultimately, ideally, get a regime change, you are talking about a major, major military engagement. You're not talking about what the U.S. did for a month by bombing in a standoff way Iranian military and other targets. You were talking about sending in U.S.

19:50Katy Balls: forces in significant numbers, not on the scale of the Iraq war, but significant numbers of amphibious forces to go out and take out Iranian facilities in the Gulf to go in and ground forces, some element of ground forces, special forces to go in and seize the nuclear material and all these things. That is a major, major escalation, which Trump does not want to do. One, because it's hugely risky. Two, because it's precisely the kind of military engagement he said he wouldn't do before he became president. And three, because it could have really even worse profound consequences for the economy and higher inflation, higher oil prices and everything else.

20:31Katy Balls: So he's really on the horns of this dilemma. That's he wants a deal. But the problem, I think, is that the Iranians know how badly he wants a deal. And that's why they can kind of resist. They can resist his demands that he's making that he thinks that would look at least like he can save face. The Iranians can push back on that. They can strike at Israel as they've done. They can basically strike at US targets as they did downing that helicopter. But, you know, they're in a position here. And Trump's, you know, again, Trump is, I've got to say, from a position, you know, for a man who built his reputation on, you know, the art of the deal and his negotiating strength is putting himself in an incredibly weak position here.

21:14Katy Balls: Because, you know, he keeps, by the way, you know, we've also heard more of this in the last week about the relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu. And, you know, so what he's kind of, you know, he seems to be in this position where he's kind of begging the Israelis not to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon so that he can get a deal with Iran. Well, that puts him in, you know, basically in a position of real weakness. Instead of, say, you know, he could, as some people have said, he could sort of push Iran and say, look, you know, if you want the Israelis to stop, you know, doing what they're doing to your friends in Lebanon, you've got to give me something.

21:48Katy Balls: You've got to give me some concessions. He's not doing that. Instead, he's sort of leaning. He's trying to he's using Iran as leverage on trying to use Iran as leverage on Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu. So, look, I think this escalation, as you describe it, will happen. But I really be surprised if it turns into the kind of all out war that some of his some of the more hawkish advisers around him want. And as you say, it more likely seems to be this kind of just continuing on again, off again, war, you know, ceasefire, war, ceasefire, standoff, which, you know, which is not going to serve him, him or his party either.

22:23Gerard Baker: And I think what you're describing there is exactly the other thing I've been picking up this week. There is now a new status quo in the war, which is just the war going on, being in the background for most people's lives while feeling the economic consequences of it. And a sense that, for example, you look at these prediction markets, which captivate everyone in DC, Calci and so forth. And they are quite a good sense of DC thinking. and you know this week I think expectations on a deal anytime soon have fallen to their lowest and I remember having a conversation with a former advisor Trump probably a week into this war and they were saying you know they can't predict much apart from the fact that with every day that goes on of a war it becomes more complicated and harder to find a way out on and I think with this you know early on Trump would say you know I decide when things are over it comes to me and I And I just think it's very painfully clear at this point that it is not Trump making the decisions on when to end, because if he could, it would be over.

23:27Katy Balls: And I think the only thing exactly that's going to break this stalemate is some major development either way. I mean, either, you know, again, as we hope, I think most of us hope that, you know, maybe something can be done to dislodge the regime in Iran or to really something really dramatic happens there, which forces either oust the regime or at least forces them to back down. Maybe military action is able to achieve that, although I'm skeptical. Or, you know, and sort of God forbid, from an American perspective, something really bad happens to U.S. forces. And we saw this Apache shutdown again.

23:57Katy Balls: You know, fortunately, the crew were the crew were fine. But I think that, you know, Trump, I've I've been told repeatedly by people who are very much involved in the decision making inside the State Department and the Pentagon. that Trump is really, really afraid of the implications of losing a battleship, some sort of warship, you know, to an Iranian missile or an Iranian drone attack. Because that would, I mean, because then we're in really, forgive the pun, but in uncharted waters because, you know, then the pressure on him to retaliate in a big way and to really escalate would be great.

24:34Gerard Baker: You now had two scrapes, if you think about it. So the helicopter this week and prior to that, you had the rescue mission to get one of the US personnel out over a month ago. And yes, you do hear from those around Trump that the idea of a hostage crisis is the type of thing that would just completely change the dynamic. So, I mean, Jerry, Trump has all these things going on and he also has his 80th birthday.

24:58Katy Balls: Remember last year we got a military parade, a rather desultory, it must be said, military parade, which nobody really seemed to want to be at.

25:04Gerard Baker: No, and I don't think he liked it. I've heard from people at the White House, because I went to the military parade. It was one of my first acts on entering this country. And I've heard it quite interesting. But I said this to someone in the White House and they said, are you joking? And they said the president was not happy with the military parade. It was raining and soldiers were smiling. That's not what happens in Russia and China when you have a military parade. They're meant to look scary and some of them miss their steps. But this time he's going for a fight. He obviously has a long history of supporting the UFC, Dana White, and the fight is going to be on the south lawn.

25:42Gerard Baker: And we all got to walk around earlier. And it's pretty spectacular what they built, I say, in the sense that it is very tall. It is tall in the White House. It's this huge blue dome, which has been nicknamed the Claw. It's got about 4 ,000 seats. To actually watch the fight, you have to be Trump in a circle or military serviceman or a celebrity he likes. Most people will be in a nearby park. And it is technically for Freedom 250. But of course, it's on his birthday. So everyone thinks it's his birthday party. And it's interesting to kind of have a fight and this clear kind of sense of strength trying to, you know, exhibit.

26:18Gerard Baker: But of course, he's turning 80. The only other president to have turned 80 in office was Joe Biden. and it didn't go particularly well. You have, I think, you know, Trump and Biden, I think while they're both very old presidents, age has not been used against Trump in the way it has Biden. Even before you think about that disastrous debate appearance, age seemed to be a much bigger issue for Biden. But of course, you have Democrats saying he's not fit, he's too old, he falls asleep in meetings. How do you think he's faring at 80, Gerry?

26:51Katy Balls: You know, I got to say, you don't have to like a lot of what Donald Trump says. And he says some crazy, frankly, and wild things. And he does, you know, sometimes say weirdly disconnected things like his odd remark about how great inflation was. I got to say, though, that comparing him and I remember it very, very well when Joe Biden turned 80 and I remember the whole of that Biden presidency, you know, Trump is Trump is a much, much, much more sprightly, lively, both physically and mentally, much more kind of together than than Biden was at 80. There's this quite interesting debate going on with Trump watchers like, is he getting worse?

27:33Katy Balls: Is the age thing making – there are claims of dementia and all this kind of stuff as there were with Biden. I've got to say I don't see it. And again, I don't say that necessarily in his defense. I think Trump has, again, Trump has always said and done a lot of kind of wild, crazy things. Some of, you know, and, you know, not been often the most coherent of speakers and often getting names wrong and people wrong. And frankly, he's quite ill-informed on a lot of subjects. But I don't think that's an age thing. I think that's I think the Donald Trump you see at 80 remarkably is pretty much the same Donald Trump you saw at 50 or 60.

28:12Katy Balls: Maybe a little bit of extra weight there. But and after all, we do have the we do have the testimony of his doctor Casey from a couple of weeks ago saying that he was a fine, fine fetal, a fine physical specimen. So, look, I think whatever I just this is a very Biden Biden, you know, three years ago was evidently, you know, not with it. I mean, you know, frankly, senile in lots and lots of ways. And you heard that also from, you know, you were getting, you know, it was beginning to filter out stories about, you know, how he would, you know, just not recognize people in meetings or he would repeat himself sort of seconds after he said said said something.

28:53Katy Balls: You don't really see that with Trump. Again, you can have all kinds of reasons for not liking what Trump says. I think that dementia is down well down the list. I think he's still kind of pretty well. Whatever marbles he may ever have possessed, Katie, I think he's still in possession of just about all of them.

29:13Gerard Baker: Yeah, I was calling around for an article. You know, people who've known him a long time. And, you know, they were saying, well, and some of these people are not fans of Trump. They're saying he's always stuck his name on his buildings. He's always hated his enemies and he's always been very thin skinned. So all these, you know, and people say, oh, he's short tempered. Well, if you were like that in your 20s or even late teens, it's not necessarily a sign of aging. And so they said, you know, he's more Trump than ever. Perhaps he's even more Trump than he was before.

29:40Katy Balls: There's an interesting thought, an interesting thought perhaps for us to end this week's episode, Katie. Will you be at the big fight on? Are you one of the 5 ,000?

29:51Gerard Baker: I'm not one of the 5 ,000, and I also won't be because I'm heading back to Europe to cover the G7, which Trump is going to be attending. So I'll be joining the podcast from Europe next week. In the meantime, Katie, have a safe trip to Europe and see you then.

30:10Katy Balls: Granger knows when you're a procurement manager for an office park, you're not managing one building. You're managing all of them. And to stay ahead, you need to see through walls and around corners. Lights about to fail, filters ready to clog, HVAC on its last leg. If you wait until something breaks, you're already behind. Count on Grainger for quality products, easy reordering, and 24-7 support. Call 1-800-GRAINGER, click grainger.com, or just stop by. Grainger, for the ones who get it done.