Who Won (and Lost) the Year in Streaming?

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1:18With outstanding writing from Deborah Kahn, Decider calls it a masterclass in storytelling. The Diplomat, for your Emmy Awards consideration. It is Wednesday, December 31st. It's our last show of 2025. Happy New Year. It's been a kind of weird year in the streaming business. YouTube has been the dominant story, of course. It really solidified its lead over subscription services and the time spent metric on TVs. It made some big inroads on traditional content. An exclusive NFL game and a deal to broadcast the Oscars. The Oscars on YouTube starting in 2029. Netflix, the biggest paid streamer at more than 300 million subscribers, is certainly mindful of YouTube.

1:59Netflix started going after podcasts, including some from The Ringer. Netflix still accounts for the majority of the hit shows across streaming. About 66 % of the original programs in Nielsen's top 10 lists are from Netflix, according to Bloomberg. Still, Netflix no longer accounts for all of the hits, of course. In fact, the biggest show of the year in the US is on Disney+. The second biggest is on Hulu. Every major streaming service can brag about some show in the top 10, although there were no new shows among the Nielsen top 10 streaming originals for the year, the first time that's ever happened.

2:31Netflix's overall share of streaming viewership has dipped below 20%, cue its planned acquisition of HBO Max. That's a sign of the times. There really is competition out there. This time of year, there's a million stats flying around, a lot of it weaponized to try to spin a narrative. So today we've got Julia Alexander back with us to parse it all. She's my colleague at Puck and a full-time streaming video analyst. She's going to take us through the year in streaming, the biggest hits. Does heated rivalry qualify? We'll discuss that. Plus the struggling platforms and the biggest surprises and takeaways from the year in streaming.

3:07From The Ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Bellany and this is The Town.

3:15Okay, we are here with Julia Alexander, media correspondent at Puck, where I work, data analyst extraordinaire. Welcome back to the show. Thanks, Matt. How are you? Good. Happy holidays. Happy holidays. Were you able to relax? Did you unwind a little bit? No, but I'm not working very much. I don't really unwind. I know. It's kind of sad. But I stayed in town in L.A., so it's nice. I'm enjoying the lack of crowds at the restaurants. No traffic. L.A. during the holidays is great. Love it. All right. So I want to get into the year in streaming, but I want to do some like big picture kind of view from 35 ,000 feet above this, because I feel like it's been kind of a relatively quiet year in streaming.

4:03These services are just kind of chugging along and separating out the fact that HBO Max is probably going to merge with one of them, whether it's Netflix or Paramount Plus. take that out. Let's just talk about where we are in the subscriber wars. Netflix is at 305 worldwide, 305 million, 308 million, or do we not know because they're not telling us anymore? They even told us. It's 300 million subscribers globally, 190 million on the ad tier, right? They adjusted their ad numbers. Now they've got way more monthly viewers on that ad tier, but they are still sitting at kind of the top. If we just level set across the board, we have Prime Video somewhere in there, right?

4:49Yeah. Mystery number of people who actually watch. They don't tell us. It's kind of all a mush match. Yeah. The last public number they gave on the subscriber number was Andy Jassy, CEO in 2024, saying like 200 million monthly active, which is still not a subscriber number. But then if we've got Disney Plus at 131.6 million, this was surprising to me when I was doing the numbers, Matt? HBO Max at 128 million subscribers. They saw the highest number of gained subscribers this year as well, like just in the span of one year. That's because they're opening in various territories. I mean, we've known this.

5:25They're expanding across the world and they are converting their output deals where they would sell their shows to other services in all these territories into HBO Max territories. And that's how they are growing, correct? It's not like all of a sudden they're having huge HBO sub growth in the US or anything. No, Heated Rivalry is not driving 18 million subscribers. We'll talk about Heated Rivalry. As a Canadian, I'm sure you're very pro Heated Rivalry. Yeah, pro hockey in general. But I think if you look at HBO Max, similar to Disney Plus, these are also two streaming services that aggressively pursue kind of these linear bundles.

6:04So we look at Disney Plus with Charter, we look at what HBO Max does in international territories. So it's your point. They're expanding and they're also kind of licensing a lot of what they do, making these deals. Then you've got Paramount Plus at about 80 million, 79.1 million to be specific. Hulu at 60 million. So total Disney is up around 200. Yeah, yeah. It's up around 200. And we've got Peacock at 41 million. And then Apple TV Plus, I've got three big question marks because we've never actually gotten a number from Eddie Q. Eddie Q on this very show said that they are well above 45 million subs.

6:39What do you interpret or what are the outside services interpret that as meaning? I think we've seen anywhere between 30 and 40 is the number that I see a lot. Well, wait a second. He said well above 45. I've seen numbers from outside say 35, 30 to 40. So I don't know what he's saying versus what numbers are. Oh, so Eddie is lying? No, I don't think Eddie's lying. I think that it's such a convoluted task to figure out an estimated number of subscribers for a service like Apple TV Plus that people are still just estimating to the best of their ability. And we don't have any actual numbers. Why is it convoluted?

7:13You either are or you aren't. I'm just saying on the numbers that I've seen, we haven't seen significant growth over the last year or two for Apple TV Plus in terms of just pure numbers, domestically and internationally. So the gorge, not bringing them in. The gorge. By the way, Craig is correcting me. He said significantly more than 40 or 45. So maybe he was hedging a little there. Maybe. The only number I want to use, it's not a subscriber number, but I think it's important, is the YouTube monthly active users because you cannot talk about streaming in 2025 without YouTube. And that's anywhere between 2 and 2.5 billion MAUs globally.

7:482 and 2.5 billion. What is the Netflix monthly active user number? They said 190 million. Okay, so this would be about 10 times the Netflix monthly active user. Removing the fact that there's no paywall. So yes, it's free. I was just going to say, but yes, it is free. Netflix is not free. But when you talk about the streaming wars, and I'm sure this will come up in the antitrust evaluation of the Netflix Warners deal, YouTube still dwarfs Netflix. Yeah, 100%. So let's get into some of the big shows of the year. So give me the top 10 from your perspective, because there's a lot of these services.

8:30There's the Nielsen top 10, which I like their numbers, but I acknowledge they acknowledge it's only US. It's only on connected TVs. So there are limitations there. You go to Netflix and they're like, oh, those are not real. And Apple is like, well, we're huge globally. It's like, OK, well, show us the numbers. No, we're not going to show you the numbers. I think if you looked at the biggest shows of the year that spoke to where these individual streamers are in streaming, I think there's five or six titles you can talk about on the TV side. Let's talk about the shows of the year. So I think for Disney Plus, you look at Bluey.

9:04Bluey is the number one show of the year. Number one show of the year. They licensed that title. It's exclusive to Disney Plus, the United States. The fact that they can find this kind of cultural, zeitgeisty, sticky content for kids in an era of YouTube, in an era when kids are watching a lot of stuff on YouTube, like Cocomelon, like Miss Rachel, which of course are now on Netflix as well, I think speaks to where Disney's strength has always lied with kids and will continue to. So I think if you look at Disney Plus outside of it, other than Andor, which landed in the Olsen's top 10, it kind of landed at number one back during the finale.

9:42It did almost a billion minutes. Other than Andor, Disney Plus has not had a great year. Viewership has stagnated. Subscriber growth in the United States has stagnated. But Bluey is kind of this touchstone of, oh, this is what Disney could do really well, which is leaning into a market that Netflix is coming for, that YouTube dominates, but that parents still really like. Well, it's the brand. The brand is Disney for families and they have this show. It's got to drive them nuts if they don't own it. I mean, countdown to when the Brinks truck backs up to that guy in Australia's house and Disney just buys the entire thing.

10:19I know it's complicated. I know the BBC is involved. Like there's a lot of things that go into Bluey, but they kind of just buy it. I mean, it's so dominant. 39.3 billion minutes as of November 9th, according to Nielsen. By far the biggest show of the year of shows that are in the weekly top 10. Grey's Anatomy is number two, which is not Disney Plus, but is a Hulu show. I think they licensed some seasons elsewhere as well. Squid Game, number three, K-pop Demon Hunters, a movie made it to number four for the year. NCIS, got to put NCIS in there. When the apocalypse comes, there will be cockroaches and NCIS left over.

11:02Then Wednesday, SpongeBob SquarePants, yay Paramount Plus. Bob's Burgers, yay Hulu. Animal Kingdom, that is hilarious because it's an old TNT show that was on Netflix this year. and then Blindspot, which is an old NBC show that was on Netflix this year. Those are the top 10 for most watched in 2025 as of November 9th. Well, and not on that list, but I think is also important from the streaming of 2025 story is Love Island. If we look at streaming services that have really struggled, I think we can all agree Peacock is probably top of that list. Yeah, you didn't even mention Peacock in your initial, your group.

11:42It's sitting there at 41 million subscribers. It is stagnated there for the last two or three quarters. Domestic only. Domestic only. We've seen a bump of about 3 million subscribers over the last year. But Love Island broke out. It was a multi-day-per-week show, so people were tuning in. Yeah, Craig's watching. Craig watches like marathons. That's incorrect. That's not a lie, but okay. That's not a lie. You told me that you watch Love Island and you watch it pretty religiously. You are just blatantly lying, but that's all right. We're going to litigate this elsewhere, but you... I'm going to go to the tape.

12:16I've never seen an episode of Love Island. I'm going to go to the tape. My wife watches all the time, and it is on when I'm in the apartment, but that's about it. Okay. Couldn't name a character. I don't think the characters are what people are watching it for. That's fair. That's fair. Here's what I like about Love Island. If you look at why Peacock is struggling, I think it's a really interesting streamer in that so much of what is available on Peacock that people want, they can get through a VMVPD. They can get through like a YouTube TV. If the vast majority of it is broadcast television, some kind of financial news like CNBC or whatever it is, and then sports, if you have a YouTube TV, you don't have to pay for Peacock.

12:56So in a moment when everyone is saying, okay, I'm trying to figure out how to balance all these different streaming services, there is this moment of consolidation happening around the virtual cable system where people are saying, I'll have YouTube TV. You know, it's sitting at about 10 million subscribers. It's growing. It's the fourth largest cable company in the United States now. And then they're saying, OK, and what do I not get through there? I do not get Netflix, right? I do not get Prime Video stuff. Like, I cannot get this here. So I think if you look at Love Island, which is this exclusive show to Peacock, it broke out, people are watching it.

13:26I think that goes to show that there is this interest in general entertainment, reality programming that NBCUniversal has always done well. but so much of that content because it's available elsewhere is really hard to convince people to sign up for. And Love Island did that. What about the Sarah Snooks show, All Her Fault? Was that a big hit this year? It was not a big hit this year. No, but it did break out. It didn't make the Nielsen chart, which is rare for a peacock show. This is actually, it's funny. Like you and I were talking about this in regards to Marty Supreme. And I think the question is like, well, what is a general hit versus, well, what is a hit for a service with very few number of subscribers that no one's really watching.

14:05So in that regard, is it a hit? Yes. Is it a hit compared to even a severance? No. Yeah. Well, it's funny. It's happening right now with Heated Rivalry, this gay hockey player show on HBO, where if that is your algorithm, it is being served to you over and over, and you think it's a huge hit. But let's see when the Nielsen numbers come out whether Heated Rivalry has broken through to the general culture. and I am betting that it has not. Yes, and on the heated rivalry front, we have a few dadic dotes. Oh, please share. We do not have actual viewership number, but according to Variety, I had a cover story and they said they got this.

14:48It is the most watched original series ever on Bell Media's Crave, which matters to no one but Canadian listeners. All right, that is like a girlfriend in the Niagara Falls area. That does not mean anything. Like, what does that mean? sounds like a Hulu press release Hulu is the worst at this where it's like the most watched original on Thursday nights in the fall and in the US, I'm quoting here it's now the top rated non-animated acquired series on HBO Max since 2020 and it is among the top five all scripted debuts on HBO Max this year, so it's up there with like The Pit, I guess in terms of a debut on the series okay, well The Pit would be I mean, the pit's a genuine hit at this point, but let's see.

15:33Let's see when the Nielsen numbers come out. By the end of the year, is Stranger Things going to be the biggest show of the year? It's a question of time, right? So the debut of the newest season had about 8 billion minutes, according to Nielsen. It's the largest debut on Nielsen of all time. It's clearly a big show. Does the fracturing of it hurt the PR potential for Netflix, where they can say it's the biggest show of the year? Maybe. You mean just the calendar year is going to end before the finale is really fully penetrated? Yeah, I think ultimately it's going to be top five for sure, maybe top three.

16:10I don't know if it's going to be number one. If it keeps going the way it's going, right? I'm looking at like K-pop Demon Hunters. I'm looking at what that did,$33,$34 billion,$8 billion for this. I think it could do it, but I don't know if there's just enough time in the calendar year for that to get across. It'll definitely be the biggest show for Netflix. Like it will just will be. Oh, you think so? That's going to happen this year. Yes. Okay. Yeah.

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17:53I've got Disney Plus as the most disappointing streamer, and I've got Peacock as the worst performer. Okay. And show of the year is Bluey. What is the biggest surprise hit of 2025? Well, I had it as Heated Rivalry. Oh, you're going to call it a hit. You are. Yeah. I'm going to call it a hit because I think it has... Now, to your point, I think this is very important to talk about in general with entertainment and streaming. As we kind of drift into these hyper niches, And then as those hyper niches are then supported and extended via Instagram Reels, via TikTok, via YouTube Shorts, it does make it seem like this is suddenly the only thing everyone's talking about when really it's something small that some people are talking about, but you are getting inundated with it.

18:38Do I think Heated Rivalry is going to be as big as a Squid Game or Stranger Things? Absolutely not. Do I think that for a show made in like 30 days that debuted on this Canadian streamer, that was a last minute acquisition that kind of broke through in a way that no one was expecting? I do. And here's why I think if it's a surprise hit, here's why I think it matters. That show should have existed on Amazon Prime Video. And here's why. Amazon Prime Video has access to a collection of very, very good data as of 2025. because of the way that Amazon works. They have access to Prime Video. They have access to Amazon Prime as a retailer and they have access to Goodreads.

19:20They have a lot of access to what people are reading, to what is trending and therefore what might be something that is worth acquiring. And so if you look at the interviews about Heated Rivalry, you've got the creator saying, I kind of saw that this was blowing up and I thought romanticcy is this big deal. These are books. These were very popular books that this author turned into the TV show. and you're saying it should have gone to Amazon. Just look at the trend across the board. If you look at Spotify Rap, the top 10 audiobooks on Spotify Rap are all these like smutty, romantic-y type books.

19:52It is a trend that people are spending more time with, they're spending more money on, and they're willing to watch if it's good. Amazon, which had, I think, the seventh highest watch show of the year with The Summer I Turned Pretty, has access to all this data, has the audience, is trying to figure out that young female audience who's tuning into these types of shows and didn't do anything with it. But I think if this show, He Did Rivalry, really becomes a surprise hit, you will see a streamer like Amazon, like Netflix, start to look far more heavily into these kind of romantic-y type books that are dominating audiences, and especially young women and middle-aged women who are not well-served compared to you look at Paramount Plus and kind of the Taylor Sheridan universe, what's happening there.

20:32Yeah. I mean, there may be a content issue. It's pretty hardcore gay sex. Maybe Amazon is not into that. Maybe they have other stuff. You never know. But Summer I Turn Pretty, genuine hit on Amazon Prime Video, correct? Huge hit. Is that the show of the year for them? The show of the year for Amazon. And I know this is going to feel like a cop out and you're going to go, oh, come on. Thursday Night Football. Thursday Night Football. Yeah, of course. It is, but it is. They lucked out. They got some really good games this year. They had that Rams game that was like in the last second. win and they had some others.

21:04But even in general, you know, I think if you look at kind of as we take in all this data from 2025, and we're streaming stands, if we look at kind of what the main three storylines have been, which I think is the rise of free. So I think actually my streamer of the year is not YouTube, it's Tubi. Oh, it is. Oh, yeah. Friend of the town, Anjali Sood. So why is Tubi the streamer of the year? That platform or service compared to all these other services that we're talking about cost very little to run. It is not a very expensive service. They're doing some original programming. They've got a lot of licensed content.

21:37And what they proved is that people are willing to sit through an insane amount of ads in order to just watch free content. And they'll watch old stuff. They'll watch stuff that was not popular before. And we've seen the share of Tubi pick up on the Nielsen gauge of the last year. In fact, if you look at all the increases in shares, so just the overall time spent, If you combine Tubi and the Roku channel, both of which have seen pretty good growth, about 1.2 % share and 1 % share combined, it's on par with YouTube, sitting at that kind of 2 % growth overall. Everyone else, the next closest is Netflix with half a percentage growth.

22:12If the combination across the board, bringing this into Amazon, is people want to watch free content and people want to watch sports, which is why I think that Amazon will bid on a very big exclusive package come the next NFL rights on top of Thursday Night Football. It's why they did the big deal with the NBA. It's why they're looking at more soccer deals. The NBA Cup actually did rate 3 million viewers for the NBA Cup final on Amazon, which was up. Pretty impressive, given it's the first year on the platform. So what's the other one? The rise of free is what are the other two trends for you?

22:41This one, we didn't spend enough time talking about this year, and I think it's so important, which is the rise specifically of social video on TV sets. Oh, like reels coming to TVs. And the reason why this is a big deal is, to your point, yes, Adam Mosseri, CEO of Instagram, says we think TVs are a big potential opportunity for us, which is funny. Well, they see the YouTube numbers, right? Yes, but they also see the potential ad opportunity, right? CTV, connected TV ad spending, is going to be one of the biggest growth ad areas in 2026. And if you're Instagram, if you are a company that sees$50 billion a year in annual run rate revenue from reels alone, and you're seeing that people are spending more time watching this type of content on their TV sets, 20 % of social video time was spent with TV sets this year, you're going to say, of course, we're going to lean into it.

23:36We're going to open our doors to completely new area of advertising that we are currently not touching that YouTube is going to get all of this growth from. So I do think if you are a streaming service, you're not worried that all of a sudden your 30 second Toyota ads are going to go away, but they are going to start chipping into overall CTV ad spend like TikTok will when it relaunches its app like YouTube currently is even on the short side. And I think that is going to become a larger conversation as it all moves to the TV set. And that's going to ultimately be bad for the linear TV people, right?

24:09Yes, that is my assumption. My big prediction is that this will be very, very bad for a lot of linear companies. Yeah, and because you used to be able as a salesperson for traditional broadcasters to poo-poo the digital stuff. Well, why would you want to be adjacent to that sewer of user-generated content? But now the sewer is on the TV. And it's just another channel you flip to. And if you're competing directly and generating bigger numbers with the sewer, then maybe you hold the nose and jump into the sewer. Something you said at the top of the episode, which I think is very important, I think it's extremely accurate, is that this year in streaming kind of felt not boring, not even slow.