20VC: Foundation Models are the Fastest Depreciating Asset in History, Lina Kahn is a Threat to American Capitalism, PE is Not Coming to Save the M&A Market & How China Could Overtake the US in the AI Race with Michael Eisenberg

19 Jun 2024 · 56 min

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Podcast Episode Summary: 20VC - Michael Eisenberg

Episode Overview In this episode of The Twenty Minute VC (20VC), host Harry Stebbings interviews Michael Eisenberg, Co-Founder and General Partner at Aleph, a leading venture firm in Israel. The discussion revolves around the current state of AI investing, the future of M&A markets, and global competition in AI technology.

Key Topics Discussed

  1. The State of AI Investing
  2. Foundation Models as Depreciating Assets: Eisenberg argues that foundation models are the "fastest depreciating asset in history," highlighting the volatility in AI valuations.
  3. AI Bubble: There’s a dual reality where AI is both a transformative technology and a gold rush leading to inflated valuations.
  4. Value Accrual Lessons: He draws parallels to the dot-com bubble, suggesting that foundational values will emerge post-correction.
  1. Liquidity in the Market
  2. Private Equity's Role: Eisenberg dismisses the notion that private equity (PE) will save the M&A market, stating that PE firms will buy only a small portion of companies due to high interest rates and price sensitivity.
  3. IPO Window: Contrary to the belief that the IPO market is closed, he asserts that the window is open, urging founders with viable revenue numbers to consider going public sooner rather than later.
  4. Lina Khan and Capitalism: Eisenberg views Lina Khan as a threat to capitalism, fearing that her policies could stifle M&A activities.
  1. AI as a Strategic Weapon in Global Competition
  2. Comparative AI Development: Eisenberg addresses whether China is ahead or behind the US in AI, suggesting that while China may have advantages in certain technologies, they are also leveraging AI in psychological operations through platforms like TikTok.
  3. Geopolitical Implications: He discusses the implications of AI on warfare, emphasizing that AI could be a more significant weapon than nuclear arms.
  1. Venture Capital Insights
  2. Investment Framework: Eisenberg prefers investing in middle-performing companies, focusing on reserves, selling positions, and avoiding lengthy board meetings.
  3. Competition in SaaS: He expresses skepticism about investing in SaaS companies due to market saturation and believes that unique startups in less competitive areas offer better opportunities.

Key Takeaways

  • Dual Nature of AI: Both a transformative technology and a speculative bubble, with a need for cautious investment strategies.
  • M&A Challenges: Regulatory concerns and market conditions may hinder future M&A activity, particularly under activist leadership.
  • AI's Role in Warfare: Countries that leverage AI effectively may gain a strategic advantage in conflicts.
  • Investment Strategy: Focus on strong foundational companies while being wary of market trends that could lead to financial losses.

Conclusion Michael Eisenberg provides a rich perspective on venture capital, AI, and the future of technology investments amidst a rapidly changing global landscape. His insights into the AI market, M&A dynamics, and the importance of foundational companies are particularly relevant for investors and entrepreneurs navigating today’s economic landscape.

For the full discussion, listen to the episode on [The Twenty Minute VC](http://www.20vc.com).

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Transcript

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0:00Foundation models are the fastest appreciating asset in history. Why invest in a business where the assets walk out at night? If I'm in Europe and I'm starting a company, I would get out. Lena Conno said, hopefully, I think a threat to American capitalism. Whether Biden or Trump gets elected, she needs to go. I don't buy that the IPO window is closed. The IPO window is wide open. The question is, what's the price you're willing to take? Welcome back to 20VC with me, Harry. Stepings, and what a show we have for you today. Joining me is a dear friend, LPN 20VC, and one of the best, Michael Eisenberg.

0:28Now Michael is a co -founder and general partner at a left, one of Israel's leading venture firms with a portfolio including the lights of Wix, lemonade, empathy, honey book and more, and before leading a left, Michael was a general partner at the world renowned benchmark. But before we dive in, I want to talk about Cooley, the global law firm built around startups and venture capital. Since forming the first venture fund in Silicon Valley, Cooley has formed more venture capital funds than any other law firm in the world, with 60 plus years working with VCs. They help VCs form and manage funds, make investments, and handle the myriad issues that arise through a fund's lifetime.

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3:01You have now arrived at your destination. Michael, I'm so excited to be with you friends for years and this is the first time that we get to do this in person. So thank you for joining me. Thank you for having me. The first time we get to do the podcast of person, I'm not the first time we meet. No, no, no, no, no, first time I'm podcasting buzz, but you know, it's so fun, I'm sure you find this actually, but I was saying the other day on Twitter that actually it makes such a difference doing in -person shows. I totally agree. Really, for me, it's game changer. Thank you for having me. Not at all, but I want to dive straight in because it seems like we're in this kind of bizarre AI bubble now.

3:31We have one side of the table that says, no, this is a most transformational technology that we've seen in 20 years. And we have another side of the table that says this is completely nuts. The valuations are crazy. The amount of cash that's being burned is crazy. this is peak. How do you just think about that from a starting point before we do a comparison? I think one of the hardest things to do in the venture business is hold and in life by the way, it's to hold two truths in your head at the same time. I think both of those things are true. This is the most transformational technology I think I will ever see in my lifetime.

3:58And at the same time, there is, like happens with many transformational technologies, it's an incredible gold rush that brings it in a lot of people. Both these things are true. You know, when the internet came on, and I was starting my venture career, this is in 1995, it was incredible. I mentioned it before we came on air. The first deal I did was called Picture Vision, and it was an online photo sharing when there were still cameras with film and negatives. You had to actually scan the negatives in order to send the pictures you upload and look like paint drying. Then there was pets .com and pets .com.

4:26And pets .com .com. Because there's an incredible gold rush, but the internet, eBay, Amazon, et cetera, turned out to be incredible companies. and I think the same will be true about AI, which is by the way a giant bucket that we need to kind of break apart. You know, right after the dot -com thing, people have forgotten, but there was like a fiber optic craze. Everyone's forgotten because it was called the dot -com crash, but there was a fiber optic equipment and infrastructure craze, and we laid a ton of fiber optic cables and it was a bubble, and the stocks went crazy. But we live off that infrastructure today, and that's what's made the current moment possible.

4:59Same thing happened, you know, Cisco bought, like on the company, for $6 billion, the fiber optic routing space, and I think 2001, then that bubble burst. And you know, it took a bunch of years to kind of find our footing again. So yes, AI's the most transformational technology I think I'll ever see in my lifetime. True. It's also true that there's a massive financial gold rush going on, and what turns into a bubble. True. What's also true is those bubbles create the infrastructure that we need going forward, and that's also true. So a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money during this like a lot of money and some foundational companies and technologies will be built Who are those people who lose a lot of money?

5:35I'm not asking for the names of those people but what sort of styles what behaviors what categories is the ones that will lead to that loss first is the value creation Let's start with a non -obvious point Which is that there's a lot of LPs with a lot of exposure to a lot of the same kind of companies through multiple different funds So they think they have portfolio diversification across a significant number of venture capital funds But everybody's piled into the same trend and in many cases piled into the same company. Do you think LP? They're aware of that. I don't know. I think the best ones probably are and others probably aren't There's the second kind of category which I call logo chasing this happens in every one of these cycles where I got to be in the hot one There could be five or six or seven hot ones and I need to have that logo Why because I want to tell people I'm an open -air.

6:17I'm in character. I mean the few I'm at all these things Then, I think there's a third category of people who think you can replicate a model that exists in one geography and make it in another geography and it's going to work to the same scale. And they pay up a high price, but it doesn't work in those geographies to the same scale. I think that's kind of a third category of people. And then I think it's important to say, you know, our mutual friend Gavin Baker of a trade he says is lying, which I completely agree with that foundation models are the fastest appreciating asset in history. I think that is absolutely true.

6:46I was talking to our founder of Seeking Alpha, which is a company by the way I did 19 years ago on benchmark and I'm still on the board of. He made a super interesting observation that financials or stock markets, which is a minute to minute update business or set of data, doesn't do well with a lot of these training models. So you can predict like a lot of things and even write an analyst report, but it doesn't matter because the numbers are off because they changed two minutes ago. I think how we deal with also the refreshing of information, which is getting to a higher of velocity, specifically in areas like financial and stocks, but that's going to be another area.

7:18So we actually just released a show today with Aaron, the founder of Pplexity. And I said to him, you know, about the depreciating asset that is these models and what that means for that, you know, a line price. And he said, you ain't get it. The price is actually aligned to the teams that are able to bring these models together. That is where the value in these companies are. That is why Open AI is worth $90 billion. dollars is not the model itself. It's the collection of specific people with specific skills that are able to bring them together that is worth the value. Propelixies my favorite app is on the home screen of my phone and still less I checked indentured servitude was outlawed in the United States.

7:54It's like what Bill Gates' father said to him that everyone's forgotten why he invested in a business where the assets walk out at night. It's true that this is a unique talent business. But if you don't have a lasting kind of asset, I do believe that software in that case of Microsoft was a lasting asset. The data is not. And the models, as we're starting to see, and various people are walking out the door, and some of them didn't work, right? There was Mustafa's company that was picked apart for its bones and flesh by Microsoft, and it's very, very elegant, exit, super elegant. And I think we'll see more of those.

8:24But I don't buy that five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten of these are going to work. It's just not true. Financially, it's not true. I think that you're going to see all the large cloud providers, Google, Amazon, you name it. Essentially, say, hey, we need to acquire the foundation models that you'll go his, the smaller ones you can be acquired, and then you're going to see a battle for the crown between unthrow pick and epineally. And so a lot of cloud providers are quite kind of smaller providers, and you have a battle there because their teammates be acquired. Do you agree with that summary?

8:51I think about it a little differently, which is where do people who use AI start their day? It's a little bit like the Google question, because I think as you kind of play this forward, you're going to see the whole series of agents. I'm not going to go to the New York Times .com to read it. I'm going to go to my AI screen and say fetch me the articles that interest me from the New York Times today and something that, you know, entertains me or is different or something I got to know. I think where people start their day is what's important. And then there'll be kind of an underlying layer that could satisfy APIs, which feels like anthropic as is a head on right now, which will service a lot of these companies and a lot of this will be built into what you talked about, the hyperscaler.

9:29Cheating these are even businesses that have ventured. They are so cash -consumptive, we also have irrational financial buyers and investors who are obviously at large corporates who have different motives to venture investors. Do you think that Asian malls or even an asset class to venture investors can make money? Yes, I don't think we should think about anything the venture has started businesses in asset class. There are asset classes out there like commercial real estate, you can make money in a class. The venture business is completely suy generous. It's not a class. There is a small number of people in this craft to make money and there's a small number of startups You know the S &P 500 has kept going up on the back of four companies who are venture backed and these are incredible generational companies that have pushed forward the rest of them are kind of trailing behind and We just need to focus on the question of are all of these just incredible companies that will land their themselves into that some index and some fortune, some S &P 500 that works, I think the answer's no.

10:29And so this is not a class of companies foundation models. There are one or two companies in there that will make their venture investors a lot of money and the rest of them will cost their LPs and GPs a lot of money. Just life, it's what it is in this business. I do just want to break down them. When you look at AI, you said it like we put it in a bucket. How should we break down that bucket and how do you break down that bucket when you think about investing it today? Yeah. You know, we should back up one step, which is AI, AI, AI. The real moment is the LLM moment, which is AI has been around for a while.

11:00Like in 2013, we invested in a company called Windward, which is now traded in London, which does maritime AI. Extrude since 2013, 2015, I invested in lemonade, which was AI for insurance. We said bots not brokers before bots were fancy. What's happened last two years or so is the emergence of the LLM, which is yet another to lay up a different way to kind of prosecute AI. AI itself is not new. When you think about that for a second, the bucket we look at, we invest only in Israel. We ask, can Israel do foundation models? We said no. And we've said that for a very long time. Why? Because a lot of this comes out of academia, it comes out of a lot of these very large companies.

11:37We didn't think there was the talent density in Israel specifically for foundation models. Because a lot of the Israeli technology comes out of the military and not academia. Yeah, you know, why is France so good all of a sudden at AI because of academia? What we said was what we want to do is Applied AI and what we want to do is kind of full stack stream through the system of AI How do you think about industries which are right before AI to be fully efficient in terms of every process for Sulta to finish or as much as possible versus those to the not actually and cannot be but closed in that way I don't know the answer to the question.

12:10That's the first time anyone said that on 20 BC

12:15I'm honest, but... Well, let me tell you, Harry. So what's an area that I think there can be efficiencies in? Places with a huge amount of paper processes where people are overburdened, but it's compressible into a bunch of short workflows that you can kind of use AI to do right now. But I think kind of more broadly, there used to be nuclear countries and non -nuclear countries, now they're gonna be AI countries and non -AI countries, and in the same way there's gonna be AI companies and non -AI companies. companies. And I think what's going to be shocking about this that's not like the internet is it's going to be harder for legacy companies to catch up to AI companies, which is different from the internet.

12:53You could kind of keep your retail business and still do e -commerce. You could kind of in the early days in the 90s we had this thing called the intranet, which is how 4 ,500 or 4 ,500 companies embrace the internet into their companies. They use the internet and they got better out of customer service and they digitized AI is different. If your data is not set up right, you're just not going to get there. And I listened to Warren Buffett say about his insurance businesses that they thought they had 60 different databases. They found out a camera of the number was they had 600 or 6 ,000 different databases.

13:21They talked to each other. It's like, good luck. When I heard that, I said, which a whole eliminate for a long time. Can I ask you, when you think about value occurring in this stack, I think what I worry about with a lot of them is customer service AI, SD office sales teams AI. There is so many competitors in very specific niche. That's not a specific niche, by the way. Those are classic areas where software has done work. There was Cable, there was Salesforce, darkcom, there was Zendes, there was, those are classic areas where people run to first. The more interesting places to invest, not to overuse Howard Marx's four quadrants of non -consensus right, is to look for kind of out there things that it's hard for people to compete in because you have specific domain knowledge that other people don't have.

14:04So I really don't like competitive markets when I invest. I find that you have really challenging times in terms of product marketing. You have high -cax, you have lower retention rates, higher churns, all competing on the same channels. Do you agree with me or do you take the view that no, competitive markets are competitive because they are where big markets are? I'm in the Harris -Dermings camp. God. Rude added this out if you weren't. Oh, one hand, I never think about competition because I don't think that's what undoes companies, bad execution undoes companies. And at the same token, I prefer actually market education.

14:36I prefer these completely uncharted spaces, a few examples. We just backed a AI to synthetic biology and chemistry rocket fuel company. And you know, rocket fuel. So the one is very competitive. A lot of people provide rocket fuel, but there's nobody who provides synthetically engineered rocket fuel from the bottom up, you know, that's at one -twelfth of the cost. And we may succeed. We may fail. I don't know. There's a lot of market education that will come up to saying, hey, we're not going to to take oil and refine it instead, we're gonna build it for the bottom up. It's gonna take a lot of market education to do that, but I think that's okay, I much prefer that.

15:09How do you slice that in portfolio? So that is a inherently more risky play than a SaaS business or a Fintech business, I would all keep. How do you size that in a portfolio? Oh, so I don't think it's a more risky play than a SaaS thing. I'll argue that SaaS is way more risky. One, because of the competition and price erosion, we had a false sense of security from models. Like I can pull them all off forward. I gave this presentation that our annual meeting a few years ago Which I said you know we've hit peak sass Anytime you can kind of stamp out MBAs from universities. You can pull them all off forward That's not going to be a venture business when I hear people talking about some of the growth funds Oh softwares like a bond, you know with a higher yield just no that's not the venture business I gave a cringe I saw some of my soul was like a bond tons of growth funds and even p if I'm seeking that they can predict the future revenue So if we're in some cases you can, it's not something you can't, but doing that as a strategy, I think it's both inherently risky and non -remunerive because it's really, really, really tough to be unique.

16:09When I first joined Benchmark in 2005, I had some time on my hands and I have a portfolio. So I did this a little piece of research to try to figure out why the companies get premium multiples. The obvious answer is high growth, but it wasn't always the case. And the thing I discovered, I kind of called it an interview at the time, CellSide Analysts Wall Street, who had a more prominent place in the world in those days. And in all my research, I can't wait to follow insight, which is companies get premium multiples when it's the only way to play a future trend in the public markets. If I think the world is going towards X, AI, whatever it is, and I'm the first AI company, the only AI in a given market, I'm going to get a premium multiple because it's the only way public investors can play that trend that they want to play.

16:47This is Nvidia, huh? I think this is big time Nvidia. being unique actually has real value. Again, provided that you have the growth and, you know, the growth profits, etc. You can't ignore that stuff. But all things being equal, if I have multiple ways to play a market, you'll get a lower multiple. If I have a single way to play a market evolution, I'll get the premium multiple. As you think about this a lot too, and I'm just like looking at, you know, I've got the founder of Clavio on the show tonight, which is a $7 billion company, you know, doing 750 million a year and revenue growing, 60 % irony.

17:17It's quite remarkable because most public companies today in the software space are going 10 to 20 % Which is part of my peak sass theory. It's absolute remarkable But you know the multiple on it is not great. I think the multiple's like a six x or seven x And then I look at an Atlassian which is trading into 12 x and it's not an inherently better business I'm just trying to figure out the difference between the two and to your point that like why one is premium and one is not But I would assume that if you want to play kind of developer growth, which I think is a real trend That's why you want on it last in there are more developers in the world today It'll be interesting to see what happens with AI But I think in general Horizontal SaaS processes are going to be disrupted by AI We just actually did a portfolio review We looked at like what the cat we categorized our investments of the last 17 investments who made it all of one was a SaaS company Sorry, last 17 investments.

18:06Oh, but one was a SaaS company. No only one only one SaaS company Vertical or horizontal? Horizontal only was horizontal to sesca. But when we look at a lot of the big companies that we see state, and I'm not naming and then we're downgrading quality or anything like that, but like your air tables, your notions of the world, these are all horizontal sesca companies. You know, bluntly a lot of people say, well, AI actually kills vertical sesca, because it means that the cost of creating that same vertical sesca, but customizing it for your organization is way easier. So vertical sesca is the one that dies.

18:35I heard a rumor, I don't know if it's true, but I've heard it from three people now, which either means I'm in an echo chamber or it might be true is that Amazon has said don't buy anymore software. AI can take care of all the kind of business process needs we need in software. I think that's going to be a trend. What does that mean in AI? I think you'll see a lot of companies build their own software or you have tools that create kind of unique business processes software for a lot of these companies. I don't know if it's tomorrow or in five years, but I think there'll be more of that. I think we drastically overestimate the internal education or knowledge of company employees And I didn't mean that disparaging me, but you know when we look at Accenture they just posted 2 .4 billion in generative AI revenues You know, why is that?

19:14Because companies have no freaking idea how to integrate AI into that business units Well, what kind of businesses is Accenture as a consulting business? Right. It's not a software business consulting business So you have unique knowledge By the way, McKinsey is also doing extremely well today in these at -risk fee businesses, right? They're not taking a lot of their fees today in kind of consulting fees but they're saying we can improve your bottom line, we can improve your top line. And they go in there and they use a ton of software and a ton of data that they bought and created themselves.

19:44Right, the fastest growing business side of McKinsey is software. And they go in and say, I can bring like a lot of really, really smart people and a lot of technological capabilities and upgrade your business into the next era that either does or doesn't include off the shelf software. I don't know, but I think there's a lot less of it. Going forward. Again, you have to ask a very simple question. I'm more of a big picture guy than a micro guy, But why are so few of these companies going better than 15 to 20 % the public market? You can barely find any I think the market for purchasing software slowing down a hundred percent Well, so I mean there's a couple of different options as one, you know You could have like a box which is just like the saturation rate of the market is so high already I mean they already have pretty much everyone as their customers They need to upsell a new product which they've been too slow to do same with the drop box as well But should have met to or to your point they're slowing down or not buying as much whatever it is something is slowing down.

20:34Yeah. So is that a trend? I don't know. I think we've squeezed a lot of efficiency out of businesses using kind of basic software already. And so to get to another level of efficiency or revenue generation is a big deal. I think also corporate buyers and whatever business they're in, what they're interested in is not the software to squeeze the incremental dollar of efficiency out of my business. Where's my new revenue opportunity from this? And that's going to require kind of a big leap and you don't get that in traditional SaaS software. I guess the question that's interesting there is like are you able to actually extract value efficiently because if you are making millions and millions for your customers in that way, how do you actually extract the value that you are providing in an efficient way that's not like a SaaS model way you only get 50k and you're actually saving them 10 million buyers today are willing to pay for value.

21:21It's harder for companies who are used to price per seat models or used to large enterprise to kind of adapt to this There's been a bunch of pieces written. I think Sarah table wrote one that people pay for work I think that's a real thing. I think people will pay for improvements to their business And I think the consultants like Accenture and McKinsey are leading edge of this But I think it's gonna come into software very very quickly. I remember speaking to a mutual from Mark Evans before and he said and how the thing you just always have to remember with adoption cycles, as we always overestimate in a year and underestimate intent.

21:53So just breathe. And I just always remember that. And it really actually affects how I think about investing on adoption cycles. Do you think that's the case here, or do you actually think, no, no, no, no, no. We are seeing the fastest technological breakthroughs in development within LLMs every single week. It is a velocity that we haven't seen before. I think both of those things are true again. Well, why is man once told me that it's about holding two opposing opinions. I think the adoption is incredible and the pace that these things are learning at and adapting at is incredible. I mean, you just by the way, you see the efficiency and customer service a lot of these fintech companies, it was lemonade or adian or clarn or any of these people, it's stunning.

22:30And at the same time, when you kind of look across a broad economy, it's going to take a lot longer than people think. And there'll be some disruptors and some people who get this and regulation will have something to say about it. And not in the way everyone's talking about, you know, like Sam Altman trying to do regulatory locking, but there's just a lot of businesses that are regulated, like farmers regulated and financial services are regulated and it's hard for regulators to keep up with AI and that's going to be a big deal for how much it can be deployed. To my biggest concern actually is that you have regulators who fear that it's getting away from them, places these very punitive policies or regulations on data, on data access and actually we have a real plateauing in the development of AI systems because of regulatory challenges.

23:11Super high level. That's more likely to happen in Europe than in the US. I think that is going to set Europe back in competitiveness more than it's already been set back in competitiveness over the last 20 years. If I'm in Europe and I'm starting a company, I would get out. Sorry. Oh, thanks, Mark. Well, I'm the London. I think the US can ill afford to slap too many shackles of regulation on AI companies because they're in competition with China and I think Israel won't do it. And so when you look at the key markets for AI development where the US is first and China is second and Israel is third, I think those are likely to be less regulated than most, certainly than Europe.

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23:50And so those will be advantaged economies going forward. So we had allies from scale AI on the show the other day and he said the thing that We're not talking about enough is that, you know, really AI is the most demonstrable power that any country or nation can hold and leverage in a case of war. And we should have closed systems as a result. Open systems would mean that our biggest enemies, Russia, China are able to access the same levels of technology that we are. We have to close the systems and we have to leverage AI to build AI to win wars. Do you agree with that perspective? I agree with that in part.

24:26I think it is true that AI is likely to be a key competitive advantage in wars. Even significant. Look, we're living through war in Israel right now. And so kind of closing the kill chain using AI is a thing. Not just in Israel, it's all over the world. And there's a big European company now. I've said a few hundred million dollars a revenue that uses AI to close the kill chain for European armies. This is a real deal. I said before, if the 20th century was about nuclear countries versus non -nuclear countries. The 21st century is AI countries versus non -AI countries. We shouldn't lose sight of the nuclear ones because there's these terrible people in Iran out there who are looking to acquire nuclear weapon.

25:02By the way, not just to threaten Israel, to threaten Europe. That's to keep people understand. They have missiles long enough to hit Israel. New missiles long enough to hit Europe. And thinking of them as an AI country is quite frightening actually. And they may be, they're very smart people there. What is not even about what Alex said is that you can keep it closed. I just think it's tough. You know, the US put a banner on Nvidia chips going to China. I don't sense it slow China down in a meaningful way. I think there's enough kind of semi -degraighted chips that you can kind of string together or open source designs.

25:32You can kind of figure this out. I think the world is far more open than we give a credit for today. And so it's really, really, really tough to shut this down. I think we just have to be ever more competitive technologically to stay ahead of the bad guys. Someone said recently that China is two years behind the US on AI. Now for that. Would you agree with that? I think there were 10 years ahead of the US on AI and CyOPS using TikTok. I think there were 10 years ahead of the US in sophistication of how to manipulate the minds of young people using AI algorithms in TikTok. I would assume, I generally assume of my competitor of my enemy that they're much smarter than I am.

26:10That's the only way to stay ahead. So even if by some bizarre notion you think that they're two years behind, you should think they're two years ahead. I slightly worry honestly we mentioned a little bit about kind of geopulsets in global conflict. In the investing world, I feel a little bit uncomfortable when I have these like 30 to 35 year old MBAs and nothing against them, but who are like getting super jacked up about the margins of defense companies and how defense is like the best place to be right now. And I'm like, you are aware of the way of your words. I know that we have enemies and people have different rights or whatever whatever.

26:45But this is still about closing kill chains and your like talking in your MBA language about margin optimization. It just feels a bit off. How do you feel about this new wave of excitement towards defence? Also being aware of the weight of what that actually means to fund with billions of dollars more efficient killing? As a father of four children who have served in Gaza and on the northern border which Hisbola has been burning nonstop. It Israel war is a real thing. It's a very serious thing. It's serious because people get killed. It's serious because it shows what you're fighting for, which is freedom and the values of the West.

27:23There are enemies out there. I've written publicly that I think this generation of Israeli kids is the defining generation they've stood up and fought for what matters. I think there aren't enough people who will stand up and fight. Now, these kids because they've been in battle have a level of maturity that your average MBA student does not have. and they understand what it means to hold a weapon. Holding a weapon is a responsibility, you know, is what is a tiny homicide rate, despite the fact that most of the population is armed, and many of them will walk around with automatic machine guns on their back.

27:48Like, you can go to wedding, I was just at one. There are eight girls in wedding dresses of sorts, and they have machine guns slung on their back. But you learn to respect it. You learn to understand that this is a serious matter, and that if you're not careful, and you're not responsible, people be killed. At the same time, I think that there was always and alliance between Silicon Valley and the defense industry and patriotism to use, you know, I'm from the United States originally, is a real thing and it should be in tech. You should be patriotic. I think patriotism is a great thing, a wonderful thing.

28:17People should be proud of their people and proud of their country and proud of their cultures. That's not the same thing as your margin as my opportunity. I think there will be a lot of money made in defense going forward. I think people will underestimate what it takes to sell defense. You know, to government buyers, the regulations, how hard it is to sell. If you've never sold defense technology and you just come out of an MBA, good luck. Palantir to 20 years to crack this code. And real cracked it much faster because of Palantir. Palmer Luck ate people kind of because he's dressed in a Hawaiian shirt.

28:48Don't take him seriously enough. Trace Stevens is there who was that Palantir. Trace Stevens was a founder of some of them. That guy is incredible. And he knows more about selling defense technology than everyone's forgotten. And that's just different. And so people will lose a lot of money chasing the new new thing which today happens to be defensive edition AI. I completely agree with you on Palmer and trade. But we're seeing this like move to hard tech. It's like people seem to agree with you actually. Sass is over proliferated, too competitive, whatever we want to say on that. But actually we need to move to hard tech.

29:18We need to move to whether that's climate but much more physical challenging, start investing. How do you see that Michael? Because I think a load of software investors are going to lose that show that's investing in a completely different type of company. So, I'm unencumbered by any knowledge of technology or software and I've been to a management experience by the way I've never managed anything and I can't write a line of code. That's not a code of what was in the seventh grade. This is the venture business. You're going to lose a lot of money. You're going to lose a lot of companies. The question is actually why does a founder want to take your money if he comes from something else other than software?

29:51And I think that'll be interesting and very Darwinian in that some founders or the great founders are likely not taking SaaS investors money because the SaaS playbook as it's been come called doesn't apply to any of these harder technologies. You said before when we were chatting before the recording that I could just exploit you for your wisdom and your more experience. Let's put it that way. I think you said age. My, yeah, but I increased wisdom is what I've got to say. my five guests of Bizarre I said we should talk about ages and because she should probably get rid of me from the fun I'm told to be doing this.

30:24Listen, I want to start on my big concern right now and I sound like I'm the old one, but I'm wondering what as liquidity are you going to come from? Like I'm looking at the different avenues which is IPO, it's M &A and then it's like P. And I just want to hear your wisdom and experience on this because I'm concerned. M &A seems totally shut. But Lena Khan seems like, you know, the ultimate challenge to the Socialist to M &A. How do you see M &A Marcus? Is it completely shut? Am I right to be right? Lena Khan, I would say it openly is, I think, a threat to American capitalism. Whether Biden or Trump gets elected, she needs to go.

30:57Because we need to be able to have M &A for the big companies. And as best I can tell, she hasn't redefined what anti -trust is. And so I think she's taking a lot of liberties that are bad for capitalism globally. Where's the credit you're getting up from? So I bad news for you. 98 % of people don't get liquid. This is a very difficult environment, number one, but number two, this actually is a hard business. I know there's been like an explosion of venture capitalists. It's a hard business. Let's just go by and stab. You said that most people don't get liquid. One way to get liquid ahead of time is secondaries or to sell positive positions.

31:31If there are buyers. If there are buyers. What do these have to scare? Let's back up. A tiny number of companies get sold or go public. I don't buy that the IPO window was closed. the IPO window is wide open. The question is what's the price you're willing to take? You can go pick Reddit when public. It's done very well in the public markets to deliver to stellar first quarter after going public. It's doing very well. It's like a $7 or $8 billion company right now. You don't need to have a half a billion or a billion of revenue to go public. We took lemonade public with 60 million of revenue. You should go public early and the markets are open.

32:03Take the price to public markets will give you and build your company in the public markets, you will be better off for it. I'm a huge believer in that. But you really set that to, you'll companies today, here at 200 million there and they're like, ah, you know what, I actually, public markets will probably give us two ex premium and 18 months time. I don't know if they'll give you two ex premium eight months time, but go. And by the way, if the bankers are playing this game, we want you to have half a billion dollars instead of find a second to your banker. They're just as good. You don't need to raise $500 million in your public.

32:31Go get Take Your Company public. Let's say a hundred million of revenue. You take your company public at $600 million, raise $80 million, build an efficient business, and go. I think people will forget that you'll Shopify when public at $700 million. Yeah. Some of the best businesses in the world. No, Amazon, the best business in the world went public. Everyone's forgotten that Facebook went down 50 % after their IPO. It's only the biggest companies in the world today. This is okay. And everyone's expecting like P .E. to turn up and buy these companies. I got bad news. Number one, they're gonna buy a tiny percentage of companies.

32:59Number two, interest rates away up. They can't borrow anymore. Number three, they're incredibly price sensitive. most companies waiting for PE to come to you and I hear this is like this whole meme right now that PE is going to be the buyers of the future Well, the citizen we have Mark Suster on the show and he said listen PE will be the primary buyers for the next generation of software companies I just want to talk to them a couple of different components that you mentioned that you said about the cost of capital How does that impact how they think about buying? drives prices down increase cost to capital drives multiples down just what it does I'm just ready to go up multiples go down.

33:27It's a loss of physics They'll pay lower multiple because their cost of capital is higher You know people are just not gonna get liquid the way they think they are and the top part of the capital is happened By the way in oh 2001 or two or three or four the top part of the cap table got his lick prep back people forgotten the lick prep Shmatter and they got the lick prep back in some cases There used to be an 8 % coupon on these things many cases now there isn't they took an 8 % coupon and then what was left went to the rest of the Cap table you can sell me gonna see many more plural sites plural site obviously happen last week Which vista wrote down from three and a half minutes there because you know the cost not concerned and I'm certain it's happening.

34:02We just don't know. By the way, the inventor portfolio is a lot of this also. And I also wonder a lot about how many SaaS companies get undermined by AI right now. And there's a lot of SaaS portfolios sitting in hefty prices and people's portfolios. FD values and people's portfolios aren't worth that anymore. You're certain. So that means that there's a ton of companies that P have bought. Well, the cost of that debt is now way too high and they are in trouble. Does that mean we have a generation of, as I think Jason Lentkin puts it, Mulligan P .Funs, and did they just get that off the hook for it.

34:30I have no idea whether they get let off the hook for it. I don't know if it's a ton of companies, but it's not one. It's not just plural sight. There's a lot more like that out there. There's a lot more like that out there. And we also think about the following. If you were to pee fun, they just took a significant write down on one or two big software purchases. You're going to have appetite to buy something. I don't think so. There's a small number of really great businesses that are built in venture. It's like 10 a year. And some other ones get smaller liquidity events, which is great. We should have that.

34:58But if you can get paid 10 to 20 times on your medium companies or even five to seven times on your medium companies, it's not a bad outcome. You know, we told our own one mentioned company, and we talked before on the show, we just took 100 cent of our equity off the table in a company. I think we did 11x or so. We have a different view of the company than the management of some of the other investors. Do that's fine. It's totally fine. We're very happy. We'll be super happy if the founder makes it into a 30x and we were wrong. We'll be so happy for him. But liquidity is a thing. And by the way, the last thing I would say about the secondary markets, we've discovered you get these emails like you probably get them also.

35:30Two a day that says, I got a buyer in the market for so -and -so company. So, over the last three or four weeks we decided to do the experiment. We reached out to them now. We still ignore them. But now it's interesting because like you discover there are actual buyers there. There aren't. Okay, there are not actual buyers there. It's, hey, okay, we can hold this price if you get us due diligence from chilling the company. These are just people looking for data. I think most of those buyers aren't out there either. Very rally to your heavy advice to sell all of your position. They're kind of canonical advices, wow, sell 33 % at a time in increments.

36:01But selling all of a position is respectfully a strange take. I would never sell all of the position, Michael. I would sell 80%, maybe even when I didn't believe, but I would still want to ride the upside on 20 % in case I was wrong. How did you think about that? 100%. You asked me before we got on the show, was the biggest mistake I made during the show? One of them was not selling 100 % of one or two positions when the prices were high. I'm actually in the opposite camp generally, which is ride your winners. That's the general camp I'm in. I think the question you need to ask yourself if you're a venture capitalist in the board is do I have any information advantage or a unique insight that somebody else does not have?

36:39If I think I have that, I should act on it. And if I should act on it, I should act on it with conviction. It's like when I go into companies, I don't want to have position. If I have conviction, I'm going to take a whole position. This business is an outlier business. It's just the nature of it. So take the whole position and if you think you fit a good return, take the money off the table. I don't think you average into positions in the venture capital business. Can you just sum that up for me? You didn't ride the public market so you kind of average into a position and then average out of a position.

37:06I don't think this is like this. This is a binary industry, very, very binary investments. And I'm in that binary camp. Do you do per -r also? Rarely. Why? I kind of drank the benchmark cool aid. We don't get the same kind of credit the benchmark gets because all of the investors or someone's gonna invest in, we don't have to do one more round. But we try to kind of peel back on it. We think we have to buy our ownership in the first round. Our unique insight is in C2NA. Buy it, write the check, buy it. We wrote this giant check to a company called Dream Security, which is AI infrastructure for protecting critical assets in countries.

37:39It was the biggest check we wrote. Crazy competitive deal, incredible team. When you say the biggest check you wrote, it's like a proportion of fund like 10%. No. Initial check, 6 .5 % of the fund. They're not going to need to raise any more money, it looks like. After the A, they can, but they probably don't need to. If I didn't get my ownership in the A, but right in this big checker, I wouldn't have a position. And I still feel like I'm subloved, I'd loved to have more. I think one of the biggest misnome is, hey, we'll place loads of bats and then we'll be able to concentrate capital into our winners.

38:08Whenever I hear this, I'm like, are you high? Like, when does that have that? that my best performing companies, generally speaking, like 99 % of the time, have sequer and all the best all over the moment. I'm not like, oh sure, I'd love to go travel per order. I was going to venture capitalist, Jesse B. Rudy, at I event, I like him too. I like him too. He made very smart observation. He said that we do prorada into our middling companies. Super interesting. He said the good ones just kind of get, they can become runaways and you kind of can't get more cap on. Bad ones you want to put money into.

38:38But sometimes one out of some number of these kind of middling companies where most people don't see what's going on there at the beginning, but I do. You give them a little extra capital or you kind of double down once or twice and you end up with a winner out of this kind of middle part of the portfolio. It's a giant winner. I thought that was super insightful. I look at my my my phone mom, which is a tiny eight million fund. I have she all best vanny drivers today. We're all in the man. And the worst performing companies were all in the rocket ship category. That one's the one's the best is very quickest.

39:08Those are the ones you should have sold 100 % of as they were on their way up. I should have done. I know absolutely I should have done, but actually I think there's a big difference between consumer and enterprise that consumer sell I mean what I found was like it's much more transient of whether it was or not and surprise you've got a lot more predictability Consumer is a femoral sometimes worse sometimes doesn't sometimes goes out of style So I think of consumers fast fashion in many cases unless you build a mode I think there are rare consumer companies who who build a mode you know after all the AI conversations somewhere from target consumers numbers, it's very hard to tell the difference visibly between open AI and anthropic and many of a number of models.

39:46So you kind of ask yourself, what's the mode? So let's say the modes to data and over time some people will note that it's significantly better. It's like Elon Musk is talking about XAI is going to be the place of truth. I hope he's right. I'm not sure how I'll know. That's kind of a question. How do you build the modes on those businesses? It's not clear to me right now. Google built the mode because they were by far the fastest and then they had this kind of reinforcing the ad business that added on to it. but who gets to build a motor in these businesses? Not obvious to me. We spoke about the three different exit sources, being M &A, IPO, P, when you're making investments, do you think about kind of value creation and pathway to exit?

40:20Nope, nothing at all. So we don't outcomes an area of plan of, okay, if HoneyBook does X, Y and Z, then we have this outcome. We don't think that. Nope, for a variety of reasons, number one, because companies pivot. Number two, because you convince yourself of all sorts of stupid things, by kind of dreaming about the exit. And number three, it never works out like that, so why bother? Do you think we're gonna see a generation of funds die, Michael? Of course. Bruce don't leave you from Missouri to say that venture capital has the highest barrier to exit of any business out there, no one wants to leave.

40:49You know, the management fee's kind of keep coming. I think that's true, so it takes longer than people think, but yes, of course. And which segment is that from? You know, good generation people go up during his ERP. You know, in our reality, he's biting. That's not a bad thing, by the way. So, like startups going out of business, you recycle the talent into something better. Who is that segment? Is that kind of old ailing funds that haven't innovated in the Valley style? Or is it the micro funds where it was like, you know, operators who had five million dollar funds on the side and were doing it part time because it was kind of cool?

41:17I think the first style of funds that goes out of businesses is funds where there is three four or five partners and only one of them is good and that person gets tired of holding everybody on their shoulders and they leave and set their own thing up and everyone knows. I think that's one. There's just some people who don't deliver capital back to LPs and they'll be gone and something big and something small and it's fine. I've been shocked by how much focus LP's still place on TVPI. I speak to a lot of LPs and I thought given the last few years, they would reduce the importance of TVPI and just focus on TVPI.

41:45No, that's still like, oh wow, I'm like, really? You still give a shit about? No, they should actually. I had this tweet back and forth with Ebrahim Ajami of Mubala, the DPI is what matters. That's true. If you didn't take money off the table during, you know, the Zerp era, there's something wrong. Let's just be clear about that. But TVP actually matters because I had this conversation with our LPs at our annual meeting, which is if the thing is compounding at a higher rate and keeps going, that's not a bad thing. I can kind of think through, if I kind of wait another two or three years, that this will be worth a significantly larger amount of money.

42:18The question is one level beneath TVPI, which is how real is it and how sustainable is it? People in the venture business, and this goes back to the previous conversation about competitive markets versus non -competitive markets, underestimate modes on businesses, the value of modes and competitive advantage on business. There is insufficient time spent on how do I deepen competitive advantage in this business. To take a financial rendering of this, multiple is my expectation for future cash flows. So the question of future cash flows is not just how much cash it is per year, but how many years this goes on for.

42:50How many years this goes on for is a function of competitive advantage. So you need to think through how deep my competitive advantage is in a given category. There's a lot of talk about Google right now, does AI undermine their ad model? Yes, but that competitive advantage is actually really deep, I think, for the time being. How long that lasts though is really the question. And that depends on consumer behavior, which is fickle, right? How much of it moves to a different modality than the search? And so the question that I think needs to be asked in TVPI land is these underlying portfolio companies how deep is their competitive advantage?

43:26How sustainable is the growth? I think when you kind of dig that level deeper you'll find that a small number of companies matter TVPI and that matters. He said how sustainable is the growth there? We're seeing this kind of transition from a lot of companies, from hyperscalers or hypergrowth to actually just quite slow growths and maybe sustainable growth but just low growth companies that need to just grind it out. What happens in that world? You know, we talked about like 100 % growth like it was easy for a decade So but it's not 30 40 % growth is great business So let's just say that first of all second very few I'm sorry if you have it 10 to 15 to 20 % growth is tricky That's a tricky middle place if you're a venture capitalist because it's not clear how you get out of it These would have been great businesses if they didn't take venture capital if they took venture capital and you know Stack -due large preference on the cap table.

44:13It's challenging what happens to them? Some of them will grind it out for a very long time until some sort of exit market opens up as long as they're and control their own destiny and their profitable. That's not a terrible way to think about this. Others will be traded in large secondary trades in portfolios. And some of them, if they're good enough, will buy back stock. I just had a company actually that bought back stock from early investors. I didn't sell it because I thought the price was too low, but I have a company that generates more than enough cash. We bought back stock. So I reduced dilution in this company, which already wasn't much, this is profitable business for a while.

44:45We'll see what happens to the asset over time. You know, we will make by the way a significant multiple on our capital whenever it comes out. It's not grown It's probably the Kager's probably 30 35 % and it's how to slow it go through but it generates a lot of casualties See what happens. But one of my bigger exits in my career I we distributed hundreds of millions of dollars of dividends. It's a strange. It doesn't happen But it's never happened to me again But find the one if you would analyze your self status and investa. Why do you most need to improve? That's a great question two areas It has been said about me multiple times that I am very, very direct and therefore an acquired taste.

45:21That should be the name of the poll cost on the quiet taste. It takes time for entrepreneurs to understand that I'm just I'm asking the hard questions and being very direct because this is important and urgent And then you need to get going about this and there's no sense of beating around the bush And so probably I should find a better way to deliver messages. Do you can? And what I mean by that is I know because it's really easy to tell what I find is the best found is take it or not they appreciate the directness and move on. One of the things I've found about myself as I've gotten older I'm getting cranky about board meetings.

45:52There's a lot of pontificating at board meetings. I've come to the conclusion that with good preparation most board meetings can be finished in 45 minutes. There's real governance that needs to go on there. There's core strategic issues that you need to pound on but most can be finished in 45 minutes. Some need two hours, none need three to four hours. It's sharing of opinions for balls that are done in 45 minutes. What is the prep that is done? Is it a Google dot with three cool questions that people think about ahead of time? It's generally a letter and not a presentation. It's rich in data, but it upfront identifies, these are my core one, two, or three strategic issues that I gotta get bored in put on.

46:30You prep for it, you do calls beforehand, and then the conversation is super concentrated because you're attacking the question, I find that people die in a kind of don't expand. All these burdens, they show endless amounts and numbers and people, you don't want to dig into the margins. And they show a product plan. Everyone wants to be the product manager on the board. It's like, just no. I've been cranky about this. And I probably should moderate my behavior. So there's another area for improvement. Do you find the Zoom board meetings are effective as in person? Not at all. I don't think I don't like Zoom at all.

46:56I hate Zoom. This is better. Way better. You know, I didn't invest over Zoom during the pandemic. I just, I met people out of a farm. I met people. And I do everything in person that I can. It's harder now because you have board members who've invested from all over the world. It's just hard to get everyone in one place, but I think in person board meetings matter a ton and by the way I'll spend two hours in person because I like people love the people and I think it's harder for people to pontificate in person By the way, the other area I got to get better at by a long shot You can get really absorbed into these companies and sometimes I need to kind of pull myself out at a high level Because I think you know you could just be too intense around these companies and my job is actually to sit at 10 ,000 feet Why is that bad?

47:39Because I think he can rattle entrepreneurs, particularly first -timers. Second -timers don't get rattled. My Tom Barding get riled by anything. Wrong word and get mad riled by anything. Keepers first, second -timed founders. No, no. I love the whole first -time thing. I have this company that's building the modernization layer for LOMs now in a very unique way using blockchain. This is a company that started during the pandemic. We were about four kilometers from each other and when they were shut down, I had a pass to get around Israel because I chair the largest volunteer organization in Israel.

48:04And I would pick them up and bring them to my house and we'd sit face to face and slowly we built this company Haven't been launched yet, but they have a couple hundred customers already. He's an incredible entrepreneur You know, but he was the first timer and I think it took us time to find out find our rhythm And we spent a couple hours just pounding on this idea Month after month after month during the pandemic I think you probably got and started earlier if I hadn't been so aggressive Final one for a quick five. Do you prefer found as you've got experience in a market or who a net new naive?

48:31Oh, Net New Knife. Net New Knife. The fact that shy and Daniel of lemonade didn't know anything about insurance, I helped the ton. When we first invested in lemonade, I called a bunch of Fintech investors to say, who's the insurance guy? I said, nobody, that's the beauty. So now who wants to invest? Does the credit turn up? These guys have broken every rule, every rule of how you build an insurance company for the better because they knew nothing about it. By the way, everyone told us, don't go to New York first. You'll never get a license there. That's the hardest DFS and we said, go to New York.

48:57Actually, I didn't say, Daniel said, let's go to New York. It was against every insurance experts advice. I generally have a healthy skepticism for expertise Isn't I want to move into a quick fire? So I say a short statement. What if you changed your mind almost in the last 12 months Michael? Younger people I was concerned about younger people being too absorbed in TikTok and Instagram and watching what happened in Israel over the last 12 months And how the younger people went out to fight for what mattered fight for the brothers and sisters and fight for women who are raped Younger people, particularly in Israel, but maybe elsewhere, are going to surprise us, and this is going to be an incredible generation who's going to be forced to stand up and fight because, you know, Israel is one place, but there's Ukraine, and there's more of this going on around the world right now.

49:36And we saw what happened in Germany last week. I think younger people are going to surprise us. What's the biggest misconception of the Israeli -Sledal P .K. system? That's a good question. I'll tell you this, by the way, we've raised an incredible amount of foreign money into our companies since October 7th. An insane amount of money. It's wide open for business right now, investors are on the ground every day. That's right now, but the biggest misconception is people think Israelis know how to scale things and for the most part when you go up in a small country It's harder to think of scale and so when you're a foreign investor you need to help Israelis think in big scale Which compass it you must respect and why them I said before I respect all competitors And I think they're two X better than I am I have to work harder than anyone if I said this to be sure if I'm not the hardest working venture capitalist out there Shame on me, and I'm gonna be it killed These guys are all 2x better than I am.

50:22I was on email with Mimuna, I'm from Clarence Morning. That guy is so good. I think how do I become Mimoon? I just think they're all better than I am. And you know, we're naturally suited for this business. So I got to work harder. What's the biggest piece of BS you have my stuff to board members giving product advice? What's the biggest sin of the Zero interest rate environment? Probably not having sold enough for my portfolio. But generally, you know, when things get too easy, if something is not hard, doesn't matter. This is supposed to be hard and life is supposed to be challenging. And when we succeed in challenging things, whether it's relationships or hardships or defending freedom or building a startup company, that's hard to build like Andrew Ill or, you know, or which is the synthetic chemistry company, we feel satisfied afterwards.

51:03This is meant to be challenging. Life is not supposed to be necessarily easy and you got to keep working at it and keep working at it. The Protestant work ethic is a real deal. It matters and you You gotta keep this hard work matters. The other thing, I think, by the way, I'd never invested in nickel and China. I think China was a Zerp phenomenon also, China investing. Why? People look for yield in other places and ignored the risk, what I call stroke of pen risk. I'm what the only guy who calls it that, where the government just take away your assets. And so, but because people are chasing yield, they just kind of, you know, send it over.

51:36That's like a might drop at the end. Tell me, my friend, why do you wanna be in Tanias? Where is the laugh in Tanias time? You now do the content platform as well. Yeah, and then your partner does the data platform. Yeah. What do you want for 11 days? But I don't know. I hope that keep me around like I'm old for this business at 53. I don't ignore the data, which says there's a get older in this business. You don't do as well. And so I hope that keep me around. Okay. You've got sourcing, selecting, servicing, three components of venture to say, where do you think you're best and worse? So Keith Reboy on the show said he's worst at sourcing and as time relevance and that sourcing is his biggest challenge.

52:11How do you think about it? I've stopped sourcing. I get all my deals right now through referrals of 30 years of being in this business. And so I actually don't do proactive sourcing anymore. I don't know if I was good at it or bad at it, but I don't do it anymore. I need to do two or three deals a year. There's enough that come my way that I think are super interesting. I don't think I provide enough kind of management help to companies because I don't want to manage my way out of a paper bag. I think what I do better in average is networking. I have large global network and I think that is valuable.

52:38I think if you have good hootspah and are not bashful and you know enough people you can reach anyone more old And I think that's valuable. I think at the seal of a fortune ten company in the last 48 hours it took two hops Final one. What question do you not get asked that you think you should get asked more? I get asked the first level question of how do you balance your time? And I tell I think there's no such thing as work -life balance you've heard me say a hundred times I get asked not one thing the second level question is How do other people think about the way you balance your time? That's the better question to ask if I'm self -reflective There are many people who I love in respect who probably think I don't give them enough time And that I don't have enough time for the things I should be having time for whether it's my day job as a venture capitalist community work family Etc.

53:24I think as I say he moved after 120 which is when you go to the pearly gates I'll probably have to give judgment for not having given people who wanted that time the time Michael, I always love our chats. I'm so glad we could do this in person. So thank you so much for joining me. Harry, it's so good to see you. Keep doing what you're doing. You're providing just an incredible service and thank you for taking me as an LP and your fund. God, I so enjoyed doing that show with Michael. He really has been an incredible supporter, friend, mentor. I'm so grateful to him for being an LP in the fund. I love doing that show.

53:55If you want to watch the full episode so you can of course on YouTube by searching for 20VC, that's 20VC. But before we leave you today, I want to talk about Koolie, the global law firm built around startups and venture capital. Since forming the first venture fund in Silicon Valley, Koolie has formed more venture capital funds than any other law firm in the world, with 60 plus years working with VCs. They help VCs form and manage funds, make investments, and handle the myriad issues that arise through a fund's lifetime. We use them at 20 VC and have loved working with their teams in the US, London and Asia over the last few years.

54:31So to learn more about the number one most active law firm representing VC backed companies going public, head over to Coolee .com and also Cooleego .com, Coolees award -winning free legal resource for entrepreneurs and speaking of providing incredible value to your customers. Travel and expense are never associated with cost savings but now you can reduce costs up to 30 % and actually reward your employees. How? Well, the van rewards your employees with personal travel credit every time they save their company money when booking business travel under company policy. Does that sound too good to be true?

55:07Well, the van is so confident you'll move to their game -changing all -in -one travel corporate card and it's spent super app that they'll give you $250 in personal travel credit just for taking a quick demo. Check them out now at navan .com, Ford slash 20 VC. And finally, let's talk about Squarespace. Squarespace is the all -in -one website platform for entrepreneurs to stand out and succeed online. Whether you're just starting out or managing a growing brand, Squarespace makes it easy to create a beautiful website, engage with your audience, and sell anything from products to content, all -in -one place, all on your terms.

55:43What's blown me away is the Squarespace Blueprint AI and SEO tools. It's like crafting your site with a guided system, them, ensuring it not only reflects your unique style, but also ranks well on search engines, plus their flexible payment options cater to every customer's needs, making transactions smooth and hassle free, and the Squarespace AI? It's a content wizard helping you whip up text that truly resonates with your brand voice. So if you're ready to get started, head to Squarespace .com for a free trial, and when you're ready to launch, go to Squarespace .com, and use the code 20vc to save 10 % of your first purchase of a website or domain.

56:20As always, I so appreciate all your support and stay tuned for an incredible episode this coming Friday with the former head of growth at Ravallute for 20 Growth.

From the publisher

Michael Eisenberg is a Co-Founder and General Partner @ Aleph, one of Israel's leading venture firms with a portfolio including the likes of Wix, Lemonade, Empathy, Honeybook and more. Before leading Aleph, Michael was a General Partner @ Benchmark.

In Today's Show with Michael Eisenberg We Discuss:

1. The State of AI Investing:

  • Why does Michael believe that "foundation models are the fastest depreciating asset in history"?
  • Are we in an AI bubble today? As an investor, what is the right way to approach this market?
  • Who will be the biggest losers in this AI investing phase?
  • Where will the biggest value accrual be? What lessons does Michael have from the dot com for this?

2. Where Is the Liquidity Coming From?

  • Why does Michael believe that it is BS that private equity will come in and buy a load of software companies and be the primary exit destination?
  • Why does Michael believe that IPO windows are always open? Should founders go out now? What is good enough revenue numbers to go out into the public markets?
  • Why does Michael believe that Lina Kahn is a threat to capitalism? How does Michael predict the next 12-24 months for the M&A market?

3. AI as a Weapon: Who Wins: China or the US:

  • Does Michael agree with the notion that China is 2 years behind the US in AI development?
  • Does Michael agree that AI could be a more dangerous weapon in wars than nuclear weapons?
  • Why does Michael suggest that for all founders in Europe, they should leave?
  • US, China, Israel, Europe, how do they rank for innovating around data regulation for AI?

4. Venture 101: Reserves, Selling Positions and Fund Dying:

  • Why does Michael only want to do reserves into his middle-performing companies?
  • What framework does Michael use to determine whether he should sell a position?
  • Which funds will be the first to die in this next wave of venture?
  • Why does Michael not do sourcing anymore? Where is he weakest in venture?
  • Why does Michael believe that no board meeting needs to be over 45 mins?

 

 

More from The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch

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20VC: Foundation Models are the Fastest Depreciating Asset in History, Lina Kahn is a Threat to American Capitalism, PE is Not Coming to Save the M&A Market & How China Could Overtake the US in the AI Race with Michael EisenbergThe Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch · 56 min
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