20VC: Inside KKR's Monster $8BN European Fund | The $500M Turkey Gamble That Went Wrong | Do Andreessen & General Catalyst Scare KKR? | Will AI Kill the PE Model? | Can The PE Model Survive without IPOs and Where is the Liquidity with Philip Freise

30 Jun 2025 · 1 h 2 min

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In short

Podcast Episode Notes: The Twenty Minute VC (20VC) Episode with Philip Freise

Episode Overview

  • Title: 20VC: Inside KKR's Monster $8BN European Fund
  • Guest: Philip Freise, Co-Head of European Private Equity at KKR
  • Date: [Insert Date]
  • Duration: Approximately 60 minutes

Key Themes

  • Insights into KKR's investment strategies and the current landscape of private equity (PE).
  • The impact of AI on the PE model and the financial market.
  • Analysis of liquidity in venture capital and private equity markets.

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Discussion Points

  1. Investment Experiences and Lessons
  2. Loss in Turkey: Philip discusses a significant loss of $500M in Turkey due to unstable governance and rule of law issues.
  3. Lesson: Avoid emerging markets with high political and currency risks.
  • COVID-19 Investments: KKR made bold investment decisions during the pandemic, deploying nearly 40% of their fund.
  • Rationale: Despite fears around COVID-19, they chose to invest in areas they could control, like haircare and cosmetics, anticipating consumer behavior shifts.
  1. Portfolio Management
  2. Critical Importance of Discipline: KKR emphasizes a disciplined approach to portfolio management, focusing on both long-term holding and timely exits.
  3. Power Laws in PE: Philip argues that power laws don't apply as strictly in private equity as they do in venture capital, citing the need for consistent performance across a portfolio.
  • Capital Intensity: Discussion on how capital-intensive businesses, particularly in emerging sectors like AI and healthcare, require careful management to ensure sustainable growth.
  1. Market Trends and Innovations
  2. AI's Impact: Examination of whether AI will 'kill' the traditional PE model.
  3. Perspective: While AI presents disruptive potential, traditional principles of capital allocation remain critical.
  • Liquidity Challenges: Philip discusses a looming liquidity crisis in venture capital and the importance of structuring investments to allow for easy exits.
  • Current Trends: With only 15% of KKR's exits being IPOs, strategic sales have become a primary exit strategy.
  1. Future Predictions
  2. Growth of KKR's European Fund: Philip predicts the fund could grow to $20B in the next decade, driven by increased investment opportunities.
  • Market Dynamics: Concerns around the rising dominance of AI, geopolitical tensions, and changing demographics, hinting at upcoming disruptions and investment opportunities in sectors like space and defense.
  1. Broader Economic Considerations
  2. US Dollar as Reserve Currency: Philip asserts that while the US dollar remains the dominant reserve currency, its share may decline over the next decade due to competition from the euro and digital currencies.
  • Demographic Shifts: The aging population poses challenges for pension systems, emphasizing the need for sustainable investment strategies to support future retirees.

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Key Takeaways

  • Investors Matter: Choosing the right VC is crucial for startups; investors with long-term visions can foster sustainable growth.
  • Adaptation to Change: Companies must be willing to pivot in response to market disruptions caused by technological advancements and geopolitical events.
  • Long-term Vision: Successful investing requires patience and a focus on long-term outcomes rather than short-term gains.

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Conclusion Philip Freise's insights highlight the intricacies of managing a significant private equity fund amidst evolving market dynamics. The conversation reflects both the challenges and opportunities present in today's economic landscape, emphasizing the importance of strategic foresight and disciplined investment practices. For further details, listeners are encouraged to check out the full episode on [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/20VC).

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Note: For further reading and resources, visit [20VC.com](http://www.20vc.com).

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Transcript

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0:00I'm a free marketer, I think tariffs are not the answer. We need to work on the underlying issues in our Western democracies to try to raise money through tariffs, not the right approach. In Turkey, we lost around 500 million. What we didn't see was rule of law was a bit of a flexible concept there. And quite frankly, we have so much going on in Western Europe. We just don't take the risk. We stay close to what we can control. Do you believe the US dollar will be the result of currency the world in 10 years? You are listening to 20VC with me Harry Stabbings and we have a Titan of the private acty and growth world joining me in the show today.

0:34We have Philip Frees co -head of European private acty at the monster that is KKR. At KKR Philip manages the largest private fund in Europe with $8 billion in the fund just for Europe. At KKR Philip's lead investments in FGS Global, Superstruct, Axel Springer, BMG rights management, Get your guide who we just had on the show and many more. Now this was an incredible show that spanned everything from aging demographics to the rise of China in European auto industries to the future of the private equity industry. I cannot thank Philip enough for joining me and I'd love to hear your thoughts. You can let me know by emailing me Harry at 20VC .com.

1:16But before we dive into the show's day, I love seeing the team come together to make this show happen. What I don't love is trying to keep track of all the information the data and the projects that we're working on across dozens of platform's products and tools. That's why we use Coda, the all -in -one collaborative workspace that's helped 50 ,000 teams all over the world get on the same page, offering the flexibility of docs with the structure of spreadsheets, Coda facilitates deeper teamwork and quicker creativity, and their turnkey AI solution, the intelligence of Coda Brain is a game changer.

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4:38Listen, I want to make this one happen for while I've heard many good things from Henry and from Johannes it get you guys. So thank you for joining me. Harry, it's great to be here. Thank you for having me. Now when I was chatting to Johannes, he was like, you got to start with the venture part days. I was about probably four or five years old, not to age. That's a really unfest art. But it was before the Sammas and so I had to start here. What are your biggest takeaways from the Venture Park days? And that really early Web 1 .0 Yeah, just for your listeners to put this in context, you're absolutely right Harry.

5:07This was 1999 so this was rock and roll days the Wild West of venture investing in Europe really and I had been a young kid at McKinsey in New York and And at a counter, Thomas Middlehoff was that very visionary CEO at that time at Bertelsmann who loved Idealap. You remember, which is still growing strong today, and really wanted somebody to back to bring that to Europe. There hadn't been anything like this in Europe and there wasn't anything. And so we went there in 1999, 2000. We raised a pretty big round. Goldman was our lead investor. There was a lot of people involved. And if you ask me today, what's the lesson?

5:46I think in bull markets, you just got to keep perspective and humility and not take yourself for a genius. So many of us back then, once we had raised whatever it was, a hundred million thought that was the end of it. I learned very quickly a few months later when the dot com bubble crashed and the new market in Germany crashed. That the most important thing really was the investors I had on my board. because there were two camps. One did this, to have a quick turnaround, to have a quick IPO, and the other ones wanted to do it literally for eternity. The big cop, it's Telefonica Bertelsman, they just wanted this to be their window into venture and innovation.

6:28And I spent as a young founder, I think I was 26 at that time, all my time intermediating between these two camps. So my lesson learned is this, and I'm applying it manically in everything I do, and I know Johannes does. As a founder, the investors you choose are so important. So of course, it makes a huge difference. You know, if you're the founder of Helsing and you choose Daniel Eck, because Daniel Eck understands what's long term business building means, you know, you don't want those kind of fast buck financial orientated early stage VCs that, you know, when the shit hits the fan that drop you very quickly.

7:04And I learned that lesson very quickly. I think another really, you'll learn one that I don't stick to the schedule and two that I literally just use this as a way to get better as an investor myself. But one thing that also I find really challenging is you have a failure or a mistake. Yeah. And you let a past failure impact a future decision. So you invest in healthcare, lose money and you go all healthcare is shit. How do you think about retaining purity of mind despite success or failure impacting your mindset? rigorous analysis and you want to reflect your rigorous analysis with as many great minds as you can.

7:38There's nothing as helpful as a good failure. Without that good failure you cannot become a world -class founder. My investor. My biggest failure was I lost in Pakistan. In the good times I thought I knew more than most people did about emerging markets. Last I did not and I got taught a hard lesson, learned many things. What would you say is you're almost painful lesson and what did you learned. I'm right with you. We lost a whole bunch more in Turkey. I think we lost around 500 million back to a company called UNRORO, which we thought was this incredible kind of logistics shipping player in Turkey.

8:14Remember the days where everybody thought that's the next frontier, great demographic, incredible innovation, great middle class, incredible, amazing middle class. You know, what we didn't see was rule of law was a bit of a flexible concept there, so what we thought was a protected player, suddenly there was some other entrant that came in even though that wasn't really possible and we lost our shirt. So I'm with you in Pakistan. I have a similar experience. Does that mean that you don't go into emerging markets in the future? Like I just take a pretty blunt view that I'm like, hey, it's hard enough to build a business.

8:47I had in political risk, currency risk. I don't need to take that risk. At KKR we made exactly the same decision. we tried also Africa, Ethiopia, where we were the largest growers of tulips and roses that didn't work out for similar reasons. And quite frankly, we have so much going on in Western Europe, we stay close to what we can control. You said that about taking the risk. Another risk that you can take is market timing risk. I'm probably expected to take market timing risk more than you, given being much earlier. Are you willing to take market timing risk and suspend this belief, what do you need to see now is the time for this?

9:23Many people thought that KKR in Europe were crazy when we leaned in and invested, I think a third, if not 40 % of our current fund, doing COVID. So in 2020, we made some bold decisions because we don't know what that virus would yield. But I've learned the long time that you have to focus on what you can control. So I give you an example. We invested in Vellar, the other haircare brand with L 'Oreal. And there were seriously people who questioned, well, once this pandemic is over, people still go and get their hair colored. Having three daughters and three sisters, I absolutely was convinced there's not going to be a problem.

10:01And so we invested. And there's many more examples like this. So yes, those types of uncomfortable decisions we took and I'll tell you why. After the great financial crisis, we were pretty much like the rabbit in the headlight. We didn't invest anything. The only investment in 2009 we made was BMG when I took the decision to invest with Bertelsman into music at a time quite frankly when music was in freefall. That was a great investment in the end. It was a courageous, but probably I could only do it at KKR because we didn't make any other investments. There was no large investments. But then the crocodile tears came later.

10:37We thought that yes, there was a great financial crisis, but those types of disruption are exactly when you should go in. and we didn't. And during COVID there was no discussion with our founders and our leaders around should be in West now. There was the opposite discussion. There was a very reflected top -down encouragement. Don't be afraid. Talk to us about what you can control. Let's deploy. What do you think was the boldest back you made in that period? 40 % is a lot. What do you think was the boldest? What we do is we partner a lot with companies, right? We don't just buy outright. So the decision at that time, Coty, was the holding company that owned Vella and we had seen, again, I give my oldest daughter the credit for this.

11:18One of the genders had her a cosmetic brand, just sold to Coty, which was an unbelievable Instagram success. And Coty got a little bit in trouble, they were overlavered. We took a 10 % stake in the company and then bought out the majority of Vella at the same time. So it was kind of a combined transaction. That leap of faith to do that in the midst of the pandemic because they had in their mix also a travel retail business for instance which you know for cosmetics etc you could ask okay when are these airports going to open again that was a bold decision because in conjunction these two investments were very sizable in the front.

11:53You said there were 40 % of the funding covered. I was always taught and I really am a student of investing I've loved it since I was 13 which is why I had no friends in school but temporal diversification is everything and actually really disciplined in terms of deployment cycles is crucial. How do you feel about sticking true to temporal diversification and a three -year fixed cycle in venture in order to view versus actually just moving faster and putting 40 % out? It's an excellent question. What I taught you is just a variety on the theme of linear pacing because we typically have five to seven -year cycles.

12:26On average, it's probably more like four or five, but we very much believe in you've got to have the discipline of linear deployment because it avoids that issue. So even though COVID hit in 20, you know, if you have a four -year cycle, you have to deploy 25 percent, right? Most people didn't deploy anything. We took the decision to go 10 -15 percent above. But then we got lucky because in 21, we didn't invest almost anything. And as you know, my market went very exuberant when COVID gave way to that incredible wave of liquidity. The answer to your question is, it's incredibly important that discipline to deploy linearly over three years in your world and five, four, five years and hours.

13:05This is such a fun show for me to do because I have to say my venture in itself is a little bit uniform, especially after you've done as many great interviews as I guess that I've done. And yours is a different world. It's a world that I don't know as well. So it's like a real learning curve for me. So when we look at I had your other shows and you said you spent a lot of time on portfolio construction. And I was like great, that's a super place to start to understand where we're at. How large is the fun then as a starting point? For KKR is an eight billion dollar fund. It's the largest dental -owned investment fund in Europe as you know I'm a massive voice for Europe.

13:39It's been not always easy. It's tough sometimes to you know Make the case that we should invest in Europe But it helps us to have that vehicle because it actually very much helps you in that discipline to say as a global investment from Europe is on the map. We got to deploy Relative to a global fund which can just make the decision to deploy in another geographies In terms of your question on portfolio construction, it is so important because traditionally people didn't really think about themes. They didn't think about growth, where there's cash flow, didn't think about the underlying industries, the geographies.

14:14So we really focus on that. And also, many people in my industry, I know you're going to reflect on that in our conversation. sometimes lack is the discipline to say, hey, you know, in a fund of 8 billion, typically you have around 15 investments, okay? So of these 15 investments, when you start selling some of them, when you start insisting that they should be better and when do you just keep them for the long term because they're your winners. Often if you make that a work of love for the individual investors in the fund, you start losing perspective. You have to top down as the leader of the fund make those calls to say, hey, you know, my space company in Bremen, which is always should be we just the development that's going to be a big winner, give them everything is going on.

14:59And then there's five others which are great, but honestly they do not compound in value consistently by more than 20 % or so. And at some point if somebody calls you and says, hey, we would like to buy that company, you just have to force yourself to sell it. Do you believe that in the pee in your business? Very much aligns the power of nature that my business does, or is it much more in the consistent 3 -5X? Get your money back always and 3 -5X everything. I do believe that we overlap in quite a few things. What is different is our business model is not to have two massive winners and then have most of the other speed failures you have to be pretty consistent.

15:38Nonetheless, you need to have some real winners because you always will have one or two which are not great. So it's a common misunderstanding that my industry is sleepy boring and just aiming for those doubles over five years. If we do that, we don't do our job really. If we think about 15 companies in the portfolio, as you mentioned, that $8 billion fund, what's the average check then? 400 to 600 million. 400 to 600 million. How does this structure work in terms of ownership? Are we taking majority? Are we buying in the last 10, 15 years? Three quarters of all investments we have made are partnerships.

16:13So I didn't just buy something outright, But I went into for instance in grammar, which be we are 30 % shared or Viled in Germany, which was the synthetic flavor business 35 % reserves Do you have a similar most French firm say especially at East Asia? We have a one -to -one initial reserves Do you have reserves post always do but it's more like 10 15 % of the fund? So you would of 8 billion you would retain that say a billion or so as a reserve because we do not need as much capital for follow -on rounds because in terms of the maturity of these companies, these are the Spotify's, right? These are very big companies that do not necessarily need any more rounds.

16:54It's more for the... follow -ons is typically for acquisitions, so if they want to buy something. What about capital intensity? How much does that factor in your decision making about getting involved? You said that they probably won't need to raise more. I'd never have met a company that needs... doesn't need to raise more. How do you think about the future cash burn of a business when investing. Yeah, it's extremely important. If you think about everything we discussed about the crisis you have to sustain, the discipline of capital allocation for the founders and the CEOs of these businesses.

17:25Does the model work in an AI world? And what I mean by that is when you look at, especially on the model side, these companies are just cash and innovation machines. Regardless when you look at anything like Harvey in legal, which is raised in a huge amount money very quickly. They just require so much cash and so much more. Does the model still apply? It's fantastically, intellectually inspiring and interesting because we are the largest owner of fertility clinics in Europe. We are expanding very quickly and very broadly in different geographies, in different areas. I know Elon likes talking about this, right?

17:58The demographic trends are not great. People do not have children anymore. We're extending live spends. But to answer your question, Those are businesses that will not be replaced by the AI models. These are real businesses that still very much need the cash to open more clinics. So I know I sound like a younger version of Warren Buffett now, which is crazy, but he's right. Things are looking different often every five years. But if you separate the noise from the reality, the underlying principles of capital allocation has to be very thought through and rational, it hasn't changed. You will have some AI models where you need lots of capital and it makes a lot of sense to invest in there and you have some other switch -done So do you think the principles are the same?

18:42I you know, I've been again a student of venture for 15 years Yeah, and I was always taught the zero to 10 million there or was like gold standard in 18 months We have three companies that've gone from zero to a hundred million there or in a year Yeah, that's the AI magic. It's incredible and so do the principles actually apply if the revenue and company scaling is like never ever seen before in history. So I'm making the bold prediction that you have just seen three of the incredible winners in the space, but they will be not the norm for whatever comes afterwards. When you see those winners, you better invest and double down or triple down.

19:18But it doesn't mean that software, you know, SaaS models, investment, that is the bread and butter of many in our industry still will not be good investments anymore. You just have different cycles there. Do you ever sit around the table at KKR I think God it'd be an easier job if we just start money into open AI andthropic, andrial and housing. And we didn't have to be so operationally involved. We could settle in secondary markets in two to three years for three X. And we could ride the wave very efficiently. No, I have incredible respect for the benchmarks and the Harrys, the Daniel X who found those types of opportunities.

19:55But you know, you asked me my lessons learned from Benchapuck. I tried Harry. That's what I've set out to do and I learned the hard way that some brilliant minds can do that and some others that are not So much in that space my experience is the truly outstanding investors in venture are ones with deep Vertical experience and real knowledge. I'm a generalist. I've seen so many things in patterns I'm better in the later stage industry you look with great admiration at the Excel benchmarks and indexes and kind of Perkins of the world, but that's not our business. When we look at 2021, we saw a lot of your D1s, your co -2s, a lot of crossover firms move earlier and earlier.

20:36And we see insights this stage, just a couple of false batches. To what extent do you feel pressure to move earlier and earlier to ensure more and more access? Growth is a separate team. I cannot understate the importance of this. It's not like the same bunch of people does different things. I don't think that the DNA of KKR and of other later stage drums, it extends to what inside does or what growth funds do. It will never extend to venture, because it's a different skill set. It's a very different skill set. I think Thrive is the one who's able to cross growth and early stage incredibly well, but I totally agree with you.

21:13So that they're about a different team. Yes. In terms of decision making, the quality of your decision is the quality of your product in our business. How do you think about decision making today in KKR? And what's been your big lessons on how to do it right? There's not one brain which decides. We truly are partnership. If you have two or three brains around the table thinking through a tough decision, you always get a better decision than if you just have one. Does that not lead to consensus thinking? You have to be willing to challenge each other and to be open about concerns you have coming back to your AI point.

21:46A lot of this is pattern recognition. Isn't that fascinating? The best investor today in the world? Bullstop is Warren Buffett, who is what? 93 years old. How do you replicate that brain? So I do want to chat about the big L in our business, which is obviously the liquidity. It's been an interesting few years. I think there's like structural eloquity, which is a real problem and a concern that I have. And it seems to be kind of getting worse in some respects. How do you think about access and liquidity, particularly for the largest of the positions? So Harry, I'm going to make an old far type of comment.

22:16I've seen at least three, if not four cycles, where liquidity goes from unbelievable exuberance. Like we've seen in 2021 through the drought that we see now. Only for people to say at the peak, liquidity is limitless. And the party is never ending, so I don't actually need to sell anything. I just write all my winners to give way to the hangover and the realization that that was a mirage. There's normal liquidity and then at the bottom people predict there will never be liquidity again and it's structural and the world is coming to an end. I literally can walk you through the same sentiment in the great financial crisis after the dot -com bust into certain elements probably also doing the euro crisis.

23:01But we have three trillion in locked LP money. And it's probably not. I hear you and you're absolutely right. The party that was celebrated in 21 -22 in terms of the velocity of fundraising and investing was absolutely artificial, inflated, and not sustainable. And they hang over, had to be tough. They hang over. I don't think it's structural. It just has to clear the excesses. I remember very well in 2001 how the venture industry had to digest the exuberance. You had many funds which had to half, right? People gave money back on a grand scale. We haven't seen that yet. And the harbing, if you will, of the universe of public companies is also structural.

23:40And I'm going to make the point which has led to so many of our partners choosing to be rather with us than to be public. I mean, the space company OHB was a public company. GFK, the market research firm was a public company. Both of them owned by a family foundation and the family who both said the public markets are not helping us because they just can cope with all that volatility and all that change. So we rather have KKR take a private and be with them for the long term and they help us deal with all of that change. That's a structural factor. That's different from 2001. And so that structural factors that founders are aware that actually that'd be better off in private markets and they want to privatize that.

24:19That's a structural factor. If you think about my industry, I give you one set for KKR over the last 15 years, only 15 % of our exits were actually IPOs. 85 % of our exits were either strategic exit sales. some large company came along. So the structural crisis of the IPO market right now are not resulting in the structural crisis for our firm and for our industry. It's slightly different for venture. In terms of you said about kind of fun -sized is halving and the impact you saw from 2001, I think that AI is kind of the oxy -contin that actually venture needed. It's like we would just come into the day.

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24:55Absolutely. And then it's like, but wait a minute, it's the best time ever. And if you're an LP, there's enough material there to be like actually they could be right and so I have to keep going. Do you agree with that? I agree. And that is why we don't see fun sizes having because exactly of what you said. A lot of these opportunities are so capital intensive because you suddenly have some interesting places to deploy. Now it doesn't mean that the fundamental underpinning of what we all do doesn't matter whether it's venture or private equity. We are the answer to the demographic crisis that Elon Musk is putting his finger on.

25:28We have an aging society everywhere. People are retiring ever later, but they have to retire. They have ever fewer babies. So if we don't have a capital stock compounding and accumulating for the benefits of retirees, people cannot pay for their old age. Therefore, what is happening right now is a pretty narrow investor base, university endowments, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds that underpinned our industry and yours are being complemented by ever growing elements that were completely excluding alternative so far, which is the 401k pensions, the individual investors.

26:07You think about it, we have I think it's a 190 to trillion dollars of savings that are completely excluding alternatives that are in a high net worth and individual investor base. The innovation that was underpinning Norge's bank, right, the Norwegian so - sorry, Relfan, to allow them to participate in all of this long -term investing that we do and investing in these growth companies and creating huge values is now extending itself to individual investors. I think it's 1 % of the 192 trillion investment alternatives. If that only goes to 5%, you suddenly have $10 trillion. You think about the magnitude relative to the entire institutional investing base to answer your question, while that whole universe on the left is in dire need of liquidity, there's others who are dying to provide liquidity.

27:00So there's a market, right? So what's happening is secondary as an asset class is going through the roof. They are going and buying fund stakes, providing liquidity to some LPs who need it. And also there's innovations in the industry, but I hadn't seen in my lifetime before where you have evergreen products because you think about the treadmill system that we have in our industry, which is you have to go every three to five years and present your case again to the LPs, then you have a new fund, then you have another new fund that is being replaced. I mean, I call it very much the Warren Buffett.

27:30I remember still at the time, again, I was a young Turk at KKR and our brilliant mind, Scott Nathel, who's Norma Kusy, or he came up with this idea to go public for KKR by merging with a public LP vehicle actually, which hadn't worked because the public markets were assuming that we would lose 80 % of every one of our investments. So he said to the public, if you value most ability, why don't you become the 30 % order of KKR's general partnerships of our partner economics in exchange for that pool? And that's how we ourselves became owners of a 5 billion pool that had been validated one and that became 10 and that's now 30.

28:10So we are actually the largest investor in our own things. To cut a long story short, what he saw at that time was that Warren Buffett had innovated in an incredible way where he got Geico and other insurance companies who provide the liquidity for all the investments he made, right? Because he owns these insurance companies. So all the people who write, who have insurance policy, they pay up front, the cash comes in and normally it sits in interest bearing accounts or earning nothing. and now he uses the source to buy whatever companies he buys, American Express. That is now the innovation that we see in our industry on top of this retail money.

28:45So basically, we Apollo and others have now taken under our wings insurance companies that provide all this liquidity. So you see the innovation goes beyond what some people talk about, continuation vehicles, etc. It extends to completely new areas of the market. it will KKL's Europe fund be 20 billion dollars in 10 years. I think that the answer is not the fund. If you ask me will KKL Europe's acid undermanagement double and triple over the next 10 years? The answer is yes. Because the universe for what we do is radically expanding. When I did the BMG deal, that was a 1 .5 billion deal for a 50 % stake in that music company.

29:25You fast forward 10 years and we had a 10 billion deal to buy half of AXA Springer, which again, was a 50 -50 deal with the family. You can very easily see how that could scale further. The capital itself will be doubled in triple. The source of it won't be necessarily a fund. It could be those retail funds that I mentioned or it could be some part of the insurance capital. So the funnel becomes much bigger. We are responsible for a much broader scope of capital to invest. And the demand for what we do in Europe is also growing much faster. There's more segments of the market won private equity investment.

30:01To what extent you can share, what percent of your LPs are European? Like, I'm very happy to say that. I think I've probably had 10 % of the European, 90 % of my... So I'm going to disclose one thing to you. The large majority is America. You have some pockets in Europe like Holland and Norway that are very strong. The Middle East is incredibly innovative and takes a large chunk. Do you know what you find ironic though that when we make a huge amount of money from European peeing companies that we just ship it back to a load of people in the US. First of all, I'm grateful for any capital that comes into Europe regardless of the destination because we need more capital in Europe.

30:37Mario Draghi is right, we need to invest $758 billion a year alone to catch up with on innovation AI but also to complete in other industry's defense, high tech, etc. Nonetheless, for the future, you're absolutely 100 % spot on. We got to wake up in Europe as for instance Germany has now decided to Invest 25 % of its GDP and make sure when we make these investments we build equity value You know, it's being done here in the UK with the mansion house complex We need to professionalize together our pension systems and allow more investments in our alternatives to build capital accumulation And that means in 10 20 30 years hopefully we retain a larger percentage of the value creation We we make with our turn to investment Are you fundamentally investing in a different type of company today?

31:26And what I mean by that is in past generations, there might have been a photodia, there might have been a get your guide, similar to me in that respect. And now, we have the most terrible challenges with energy, with defense, with infrastructure. You mentioned obviously your space company. I mean, we are woefully under equipped when it comes to space. Are you investing in a fundamentally different class of company given this need for Kaplan, all of these very hard new industries. Myodraga is right. We are behind in defense, for instance, but look in scarcity and hours of need, innovation kicks in.

32:00And look at what happened because of the hour of need and that innovation that we have in Europe have seen the US has done by saying 10 % of the spend of the Department of Defense needs to go actually in the innovative ecosystem and space the same, right? Space X was just the result of opening it up to the private sphere. that is coming here now. We have had a terrible tragedy in Ukraine for years now, and they're still standing, and it's because of the innovative companies like Helsing that have supported them. So, short answer to your question is, yes, innovation is the answer to these problems.

32:32I wouldn't be so negative. They are coming now, much faster than some people realize. Do you feel we're taking more risks than ever? Given the volatility that now exists in the world on a daily basis, We were talking before about some tweets and events that happen that just kind of change everything with a tweet My point being well it seemed relatively stagnant or plateaued at certain points And now it seems like it is more volatile never do you think we're taking more risks than ever? Well, you started this conversation with AI. You're right. I mean AI is a fundamental Transformation of all the assumptions that we had made around productivity around the innovation cycles you need in certain industry like healthcare defense, etc.

33:14So that alone was already massive. And then at the same time, you have this incredible pivot from the post -war consensus of how everything works. Right? After the second world war, there was an institutional ecosystem built with the IMF and the World Bank and the United Nations, and there was a clear understanding of how everything works. And people had forgotten about the the 1930 period when it was much more bilateral and it was much more nation states and it was much more everyone for itself. People also thirdly had taken for granted the unique role of the US dollar as a reserve currency. Also that is being questioned now.

33:54Redalue fourthly points out that when you have large amounts of debts accumulated, we are just one step away from a major crisis because debt bubbles at some point get resolved both by internal strife war or massive transformations in the monetary system. So we have four disruptions at the same time, technology, geopolitics, monetary sphere, and at the same time, huge demographic crisis we talked about, right? There's a feeling of unparalleled inequality between certain segments of the population and others and certain regions of the world and others. We are investing against an unbelievable backdrop of risk and volatility and uncertainty.

34:36But especially in times like this, I remind myself of what Warren Buffet says. You've got to focus on what you can control. I have a spectacular founder like Muad at Hamatan, a large market that will be transformed by technology. And if I see that there's unparalleled openness to actually institute change for the better, which I think is the case in Europe right now, then I invest. I just have to be able institutionally to be patient and to hold for longer. Is it you're not able to predict what's going to happen in three years? It's impossible. So if something goes wrong, you just have to be able to hold longer.

35:11Do you believe the US dollar would be the reserve currency of the world in 10 years? Yes. I think that it's impossible to replace reserve currencies that quickly. Will the US solar be the reserve currency in 50 years? I couldn't tell you. I do think in 10 years time, the percentage of reserves the US represents will probably have reduced slightly. The problem that the monetary system has is if you want to replace one thing, you need to decide what you replace it with. Right now, the only credible alternative is the Euro, and we in Europe, we need to get our act together. It's a fantastic opportunity for us to take larger share.

35:46You don't think it's Bitcoin? I think Bitcoin is a very interesting innovation and will take larger share, but it's too early now for us to call that, that will be the reserve currency of the world. And you know, Harry, why? Nobody talks about quantum computers anymore. Think about what that means, right? If we have quantum in terms of all the impact of that. And people will just not replace 80 % US dollars with Bitcoin overnight. I think Bitcoin will take a larger share as will the euro, but it's going to be more of a mix. We mentioned the kind of four disruptions. The hard thing with disruptions is they change the world in such unprecedented ways that they make a lot of prior assumptions really invalid.

36:22We mentioned kind of thematic thinking early. Yes, I don't like thematic thinking because I think the world is so unpredictable that COVID can happen and industries have changed overnight in ways that we can't comprehend. So what extent do you think thematic thinking and a prepared mind is actually valid in a world that changes so much so quickly? Can I put a buffer to spin on the idea of thematic thinking? 100%. I think it's very relevant. If you think about buffet, he will tell you Whatever noise there is in the world, I'm going to look at a few essential elements. I'm going to look at the founder.

36:55I'm going to look at the business itself. Is it in a large market? Has it an unassailable position in that market? Is it innovative enough to have product cycle innovation? And is it having a good return on capital? And then I'm putting incentives in for these people to just keep running faster. I love his thinking. That is a very different thing as saying I invest in energy and I invest in certain industry verticals. He has a human spin on thematics. That said, I do think thematic investing is valid. If you will now think in Europe, Draghi is right and there are certain elements where we just have to invest.

37:33And that, for instance, is space and defense. If that is part of your investing theme, then it makes sense because you can't just overnight say, hey, I was a healthcare investor and now I'm a space investor, you need to build going back to our original conversation about what makes a good venture investor need to have a deep thematic. But, I'm sorry, I didn't mean to be difficult, but I've met so many space, not space, defense companies, every defense company is trying to be the best, obviously, healthy in Europe. I've met so many defense companies, I don't know how much I'm going to be fair, but none of the founders that I've met touched toast.

38:05Even if I knew nothing about defense, which I don't, to be very clear, nothing. I love nothing more than having such a massive of consensus with your toss and as a rock star. No debate. And so if I get my own even though I know nothing, I know he is the best. He is the best for sure. That's the good news about markets and innovation cycles. And Recrevis was the best by far in his industry. He set up a whole industry. People are fast to copy. People are fast to innovate. They're fast to follow. Toss and is the best. But in five years time we look back and say of course Toss and couldn't have done it all by himself.

38:37There will be there will be more at the Tamatan. There will be others. So what you said, I always say, if you want to invest in the next housing, don't just invest in housing. I spent my life with investors who are like, oh, I'm trying to find the next open AI, the next Angerial, don't just put your money in the winner. Well, you always want to back your winners. I completely agree with that. And like winners compound. Winners totally compound, but it doesn't mean that you can put your entire fund to one winner, right? This is what we discussed before. How much money would you put into a company, like Concentration of Funds.

39:08So we are absolutely rock solid, you know, disciplined on this. You don't do more than 10 % of one fund, you know, I think in terms of underwriting, the absolute maximum is 15%, but it's in that range. I love Brian Singerman at Founders Fund, who says the enemy of great venture returns is capital concentration limits. And that's why we did 33 % into Airbnb. And I just wish remember thinking, my God, that's conviction. 33 % into one single company. Yeah, that's absolutely in my industry, not the right approach. Krasnoy, we're talking about Europe. Europe has an incredibly fragmented public markets.

39:44Yes. How much of a problem is the complete life of functional public markets for Europe today? It's a beautiful question. We come back to Mario Draghi. The second thing he said after you got to invest $750 billion a year to catch up is we need a capital market union. We need to come together and do away with artificial limits between 27 nation states and the UK when it comes to concepts like securitization or going public laws. Yes, of course, we need a European SEC. Yes, of course, we need a bit more of one pan -European place where people can go public. It's extremely important. You completely agree with you.

40:22I think a unified European liquidity mechanism would be great. To what extent do you also have an EUAI Act? Blunding is incredibly prohibitive. Well, we are experimenting today in blunt speaking, which I'm happy to ask for a minute. We absolutely over -regulated that space. We need to unleash the power of that technology, technological innovation and not stifle it by too much innovation for sure. Germany has a challenge in the auto industry. Do you worry as much as I do about the rise of BYD, Xiaomi and China in bluntly destroying much of the European car market. So I'm going to answer that question indirectly by saying what I'm observing because we own fantastic investments in related industries is the de -Earth of good engineers.

41:07And what we see is when the automotive industry is shrinking because of some of the factors you you mention, those people immediately find jobs in other industries which are growing. whether that is censors, whether that is defense. Of course, we need to have a fair playing field, right, between different economic regions in the world. I always worry when certain industries do not fair, fair conditions to compete. Should we tariff the shit out of Chinese cars, and if they're subsidized by the Chinese government in terms of their creation, and they're able to flood our markets, if we're playing fair, do you not just tariff them?

41:42I just think generally I'm a free marketer. I think tariffs are not the answer. I know that's a controversial statement in today's world. You know, we need to work on the underlying issues in our Western democracies. For instance, we have two high deficits. Those deficits lead to exceedingly high indebtedness, where they are for no crisis prone to try to raise money through tariffs. It's not the right approach. What do you think is the best way to deal with the current situation we have in terms of deficits? If you think about 20, 25, 30 % of all of our budgets going to two sources, one, to just serve service the interest of the existing debt stock.

42:21It's huge. I mean, in many countries, these are higher expenditures than our healthcare or our defense budgets. Then it becomes very clear that the only way to do, to restrain that is on the expenditure aside where on the, for instance, on the pension systems and the benefit systems, we do not benefit from the capital accumulation and the wealth creation. It is mind -boggling, you know, if you and I were Norwegian, we wouldn't worry a bit about this because the Norwegians so in wealth fund, who everything they have done has created such a capital stock that every single person doesn't need to worry about their pension.

42:57I had Nikolai on the show and he said every single Norwegian is a millionaire. He is a genius and he's doing a great job by the way running. I ask him if it invested in my fund and he said, of course, our minimum check is 10 billion dollars. But imagine if we had the German, the British, the French, Norgesbank, right? That would have meant. And that's the conversation I had with Angela Merkel 10 years ago. It was absolutely possible. We slept through it, but it doesn't mean because we missed it, we couldn't do it in the future. We must do it. I think one interesting one for me is, again, I'm a student of economics in history as well.

43:30And so if you look at Japan in 1980s, that deficit was huge. Yes. And the question is like everyone's like, well, we've got to worry about the deficit, we've got to control it. Why can't we just let it go higher? I know it sounds terrible, but they kind of kick the can down the road in the 80s. To what extent can we not just do it now? You and I are going to have a hobby, economist conversation, because it's a fascinating conversation. You know, the shikens will always come home to roost. That's what I've learned in economic theory, because here's what we miss sometimes. A lot of this is very much virtual.

44:01What's the biggest coin of the real, what's the biggest currency of our business and of our economy? Bust. Those numbers don't mean anything, but if people convince themselves that spending 20 -25 % of an ongoing budget in any country, on interest for your debt is too high, and you can't pay for innovation, for healthcare, for defense, etc. At some point, there will be calls for one of two things. either increased taxation, which typically means that a lot of your value creators leave your country, or radical cuts in spending. We have seen both in Japan and the United States of America that is extremely hard for a political system that has elected every four years, who actually have the discipline of reducing these expenditures.

44:47I mean, Japan still has a structural deficit the way they have. So if you can't really raise taxation and if you can't really reduce expenditure, the only other way to do it to get rid of your interest income, if your interest load, is to inflate away your debt, right? So you do financial repression, which means you force your interest rates to be below the rate of inflation, which means in real terms everybody who has assets loses. And that is a very inflammatory way of dealing with it. We know what that meant in the 30s, right? And quite frankly, we're having a philosophical debate now. Our generation, so the people that are not retired yet, will ask the questions.

45:28The statistics, I give you it to you as an example, are that in a few years' time, every fourth person is a person in pension age, so over the age of 65. How can you sustain any balance between toiling every day and feeling that in your own retirement, you actually will have anything to live from? And then at some point, societies get an imbalance, right? I mean, look at our political systems all over the rest of the world and the election results, right? Populism rises. It goes much beyond now. What we do as a job, but there's a direct correlation between all of this. So I come back to what you and I do every day, There's a much of a purpose in it.

46:11It's not about just making returns or it's actually making pension affordable for millions and millions of people. And we need to have a political system where what we do benefits as broad a population as possible. Do you think AI will have the productivity gains that people suggest it might do? Too early to tell, I totally, well, I think it will. However, productivity gains, which will be extremely beneficiary to the world, don't mean that the challenges I just mentioned will be solved, because there will be this disruption phase where many, many people who are, weren't they beworcent, because you'll have more people who are removed from labor force, that she ends up, even people of like working age will not be working.

46:57It only works if Norgesbank, let's assume the Norges bank, which is the Norwegian Southern Rail Fund, would suddenly be the British bank. And everybody of us has a stake in those companies. So if, if, you know, we had a fund that is actually catering to the pensions of everyone, which owns 20 % of open AI, you would be celebrating that development, right? Because we find a new balance between work and leisure. And there will be different jobs, but you people don't have to, you know, trepidate the outcome of this. The problem is right now there's no such mechanism because we don't participate in the value creation.

47:37You don't think we're going to have like massive structural unemployment because of AI in the next 10 years. So, the point I'm making, if we in Norway had structural massive unemployment, we'll be fine. We'll be fine because Norges Bank has led to that structural unemployment because of the largest investor in the AI company and therefore they could redistribute dispose of it. I do think there will be a transition now where white collage jobs will be impacted. And we need to answer the question on societal level. How do we cope with that in terms of the earnings and the results from the investing to make sure they are broadly based for everyone impacted by this?

48:12You said about owning 20 % of open AI. Challenge with the extension of private markets is the wealth creation is shared between a very few number of people compared to public markets where it's obviously available to many more. your Norris Bank and countries of the world. To what extent are you worried that we're seeing the concentration of wealth to few people with the extension of private markets? Is it a brilliant question? And it's the most important question. And that's exactly why our industry, the investing industry needs to open for the many. That's why what I said earlier, the fact that we were only allowing 1 % of all the private individuals to participate in the, you know, in our industry in the alternative investing industry, that is not sustainable.

48:57If this becomes, if your dad and my dad and others have the ability to save for their own retirement and they can select 5%, 10 % of their, you know, capital pot that we have now said everybody can have for their future retirement. And they allocated to us and we invested in OpenAI, it becomes suddenly available to the menu rather than the fuel. So that's the answer. The answer is broad -based participation in the alternative industry. And that is why this is so important. Do you think we will see that broad -post participation? How does that actually look? That looks like retail -bound funds.

49:38So I think what we... I think yes, we will see it. I think if I mean I remember I was a McKinsey sometime ago, but I still have a 4 -1K plan from that I mean I wasn't there that long, but I still have whatever the number is So they're in check it I do and I allocated every year I'm just a long -term investor so there's no point in checking it every quarter But if I checked it every five years and I reallocated to the same allocation by the way I allocate I think 30 % to my industry and the rest is S &P 500 a bit of bonds But if you do that, imagine everybody was able to do that. I sleep well at night and I look again in 10 years and I see the compounding that has resulted.

50:23There's no reason why what America allows or Norway allows shouldn't be available for all of us in Europe. It's just a regulatory question and the question of courage for the political systems to say, I go from a PSU -goal pension system to one that has a private capital -accumulated, you know, Colin. Totally agree with you there. I do also think it's massively increased education standards actually on company level. I've got one brilliant advice which is like if you want your children to give a shit about companies by the one single stock, because in a minute you have any form of ownership, your interest level will go through the roof.

51:01Absolutely. You asked the person one on money. How do you think about your relationship to money? Mine's a weird one. I used to think it was everything. And then I got it and I realized it's relatively nothing. I mean, it's nice to have as a foundational layer. But it wasn't the jar of happiness that I thought it would be. Can I disclose a secret to you? Gotta go and see the new Brad Pitt movie, F1 The Movie, which I think is spectacular. If I had had to say in how we call it, one of our production companies produced it. It wouldn't be called F1, the movie, it would be called, it is not about the money.

51:40And you'll see when you see the movie, why? That's the message that I would give to people when they ask me what my relation to with money is. Was it never about the money? Or was it like me, wait, you think it is, but then it's not? I just stumbled into, so when I made the decision to leave a high -paying job at McKinsey, people thought I'm absolutely crazy because I gave up the safety net for no certainty at all. And you know how this to be a founder. You are one day, you think on paper, an exilienter, and the other day you are broke. it's the most incredible experience that because you learn very quickly from that that it's not the money that matters it's the learning when I went to KKL it was a startup that's big no mistake right it was when I joined whatever 39 people and I had no idea what it means to build to career track art in investing in funds It's important, Yachtstick, my job is to create results for all these pensioners and for what we do.

52:49But it's only an output, okay? It's not the main reason we do that. For me, at least, it's not. I mean, I enjoy every day speaking with people in completely different ways of life. You may know that I'm a crazy music fan. And you love the opera, huh? I'm crazy about trying to innovate the Biroid Festival, which is the Richard Wagner Festival in Germany. I'm also a trustee of the Royal Opera House. I do love the opera, yes. But I love all kinds of music. But it's, you know, I love it because I learned so much from these artists, right? When you see the shining eyes of the opera singer or the ballet dancer, I mean, it was so incredible to experience doing COVID when they couldn't perform.

53:33what it meant to them once the curtain could rise again. So in many ways, whether you are a Formula One driver or you are an artist or you are an investor, if you don't love what you do, then you will, you ain't be good at it. And if you're really good at what you do and you love it, there will be money that follows. Listen, I could speak to you all day. Can we do a quick fire round? So I say a short statement. Okay, so that's roll with which ambassador do you most admire? And why then? one buffet, incredible ability to just separate the noise from what really matters. What's the most painful investing lesson and what did you learn?

54:12Venture Park, I set it up, it failed and I learned to keep going to remain humble and to really, really, really think about your investors. What do you know now that you wish you'd known when you started at KKL? That is a marathon and not a sprint. I think as an investor you just have to go for the long term and sometimes what does that mean? It means when you're in the eye of the storm like COVID or like now Make do not make the mistake to think that is structural God is day through it. You got to look for the long term and When you look back now, it's also obvious, but it's never obvious. You just got to Endurance is what matters in our industry.

54:57You never give up. I say So I agree on endurance what matters. I also, when you're in the eye of the storm, like now I'm seeing so many people sacrifice trust. Yes. Bors short term financial gain. Never do it. So dangerous. Yes. Totally agree to that. Biggest lesson from working with Henry Kravitz. Errigan's kills is what he taught me. I will never forget when I was the new kid on the block in KKR and I entered for the first time in the office. And I didn't know what to do quite frankly. It was just chai. And he and his cousin came over and just said hi, you know, we are Henry and George and This is the from we built and tell us about you.

55:35I was so mortified, but so inspired by it If KK are a band what genre would it be and who's the front man? Listen, I love the opera. I love classic music. I love many things But it's an orchestra quite frankly where the tuba player the violinist the bassist all of them are more class but my job is to be the conductor and try to motivate everybody and bring them together as a team. What's one European startup you wish KK on head investors? Spotify, I was the first institutional investor through the door. I just didn't have the fun to invest. I know, but this is again, every failure you have in life is an opportunity.

56:16You know, I learned from it because of that we did get your guide, which is a fantastic success now. Is that one that you said no to like you did have the chance? Oh my god. I have to hide now under the table We literally at KKR had the chance to invest in Ali Baba a long time ago and that came on my desk and I said no big mistake That wasn't your desk for that. That was someone else's desk It was literally at that time kind of early angel kind of family KKR stuff and I was the I was the maverick in terms of having done venture investing. What do you make of all venture firms coming into your field?

56:55Now you have Andresons your light speeds your general catalyst just eating the financial stack. Do you worry they're coming into your field? I think their industry is big. Everybody has his place. I have done venture myself to know that it's an entirely different you know skill set so I'm not worried about out. Final one, KKL 10 years from now, I knew in it, what do you want to be? We said about kind of AUM, what do you want it to be in 10 years? Very important question. We have 670 billion undermanagement now. This number will go up massively, but what I want to see, I think historically, the kind of individual retail type broad based investor base is roughly 20%, maybe 30%.

57:40I want to see that to go to 50 % and just to have that spread of what we discussed before. Listen, Philip, thank you so much for joining me. As I said, I've been looking forward to this one. So many good things from your hands. So thank you so much. You're very welcome. It's great to be here. That was such a fun show to do. I want to say, you thank you to Philip for giving up the time and joining me in the studio. If you want to watch the full episode, you can find it on YouTube by searching for 20VC. That's 20VC. But before we leave you today, I love seeing the team come together to make this show happen.

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From the publisher

Philipp Freise is Co-Head of European Private Equity at KKR, where he manages the largest private fund in Europe with $8BN in the latest fund. Philip has led KKR's investments in FGS Global, Superstruct, Axel Springer SE, BMG Rights Management, Fotolia, GetYourGuide, GfK SE, Leonine, Mediawan SAS, Scout24 Switzerland and Trainline. Previously, Philip worked at McKinsey & Company in and co-founded Berlin-based VC firm Venturepark, Europe's first pan-European incubator.

Agenda:

00:00 – "We Lost $500M in Turkey. Here’s Why We’ll Never Do It Again."

01:40 – Inside Europe’s Biggest PE Fund: $8B of Pure Firepower

03:55 – The $100M Dot-Com Failure That Changed My Career

06:45 – Why Picking the Wrong VC Will Destroy Your Company

10:20 – KKR’s $500M COVID Gamble: Genius or Insane?

12:35 – Why We Ignored the Market & Deployed 40% of Our Fund

15:55 – KKR’s Ruthless Portfolio Discipline: Love Doesn’t Matter

17:10 – Do Power Laws Apply in PE? Freise Destroys the Myth

18:45 – The Truth About Capital Intensity in the Age of AI

20:10 – Can AI Kill the PE Model? Here’s What Philipp Says

26:00 – The Secret to Great Investment Decisions at KKR

32:40 – Why There’s a $3T Liquidity Time Bomb in Venture

34:25 – The Death of IPOs? How KKR Exits Without Going Public

40:05 – Will KKR Europe Hit $20B? Freise's Bold Prediction

43:45 – Helsing, Space, and Defense: The New Age of DeepTech Bets

45:30 – Tariffs, China, and the Future of the German Car Empire

47:00 – Freise vs. Bitcoin: Will USD Still Rule in 10 Years?

48:15 – 4 Global Shocks Happening Right Now That You Need to Know

51:30 – KKR Missed Spotify AND Alibaba?! The Painful Stories

53:00 – Do Andreessen & General Catalyst Scare KKR? Freise Responds

54:30 – The One Metric That Will Define KKR’s Next Decade

 

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