20VC Roundtable: NEW FORMAT: Why the Seed Investing Model is Broken, How to Make Money at Seed Moving Forward; Who Wins and Who Loses, Why Venture Value Add Platforms are BS and Failed and Why There Will be an IPO per Week in H2 2024

11 Aug 2023 · 54 min

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Podcast Summary: The Twenty Minute VC (20VC) - Episode: 20VC Roundtable

Episode Overview In this episode, Harry Stebbings leads a roundtable discussion with three prominent venture capitalists: Sam Lessin (Co-Founder at Slow Ventures), Frank Rotman (Founding Partner at QED Investors), and Jason Lemkin (Founder of SaaStr). The conversation focuses on the current state of seed investing, the potential shifts in venture capital models, and predictions for the future, including a projected surge in IPOs in the latter half of 2024.

Key Participants

  • Sam Lessin: Co-Founder and Partner at Slow Ventures; portfolio includes companies like Airtable and Robinhood.
  • Frank Rotman: Founding Partner at QED Investors; focuses on fintech with a portfolio including Klarna and Credit Karma.
  • Jason Lemkin: Founder of SaaStr; known for investing in SaaS companies.

Key Discussions

  1. The Broken Seed Model
  2. Overview: The traditional seed investing model, viewed as a "factory line" for startups, is considered broken.
  3. Arguments:
  4. Sam Lessin argues that seed investing was predicated on creating predictable outcomes, which is no longer feasible.
  5. The era of easily manufacturing successful companies is over, leading to a return to bespoke investments focused on pattern recognition.
  6. Jason Lemkin posits that while the model may be changing, SaaS and enterprise could still have unique dynamics that allow for systematic success.
  1. Round Construction: YC and Party Rounds
  2. Debate:
  3. Lessin suggests that the trend of party rounds may be coming to an end due to inefficiencies, while Lemkin believes that party rounds will continue to proliferate.
  4. The value proposition of Y Combinator (YC) is debated; Lessin sees it as less relevant due to factory-like output, whereas Lemkin acknowledges its role in identifying talent and ambition.
  1. VC Value Add at Seed: Is it Effective?
  2. Key Points:
  3. Lemkin argues that talent assistance teams in VC firms have largely failed to provide meaningful value to founders.
  4. Lessin believes that VCs do not add much value, raising the question of whether the best founders actually need external help.
  1. Future Predictions
  2. Market Outlook:
  3. Lemkin suggests that many fund managers may need to write off their 2021 investments.
  4. The discussion highlights a trend where founders should aim for profitability at earlier stages, rather than relying on massive capital inflow.
  5. Lessin cautions against companies with long runways but no product-market fit, urging investors to be wary of inevitable failures.
  1. IPO Predictions for H2 2024
  2. Jason Lemkin's Bet:
  3. Lemkin predicts that there will be an IPO every week in the latter half of 2024, as public markets recover.
  4. The discussion contrasts the potential for an influx of IPOs against the reality of more cautious investment strategies in venture capital.

Key Takeaways

  • Shift in Investment Strategy: There is a growing realization among investors that the previous strategies of easy capital and predictable outcomes are no longer sustainable.
  • Focus on Profitability: The need to build capital-efficient, profitable businesses is emphasized as a crucial trend for the future.
  • Complexity of Market Dynamics: The conversation illustrates the complexities of venture capital, including the challenges of overvaluation and the changing expectations of founders and investors alike.

Conclusion The discussion provides valuable insights into the evolving landscape of venture capital, particularly seed investing. The insights shared by Lessin, Rotman, and Lemkin highlight a critical juncture in the industry, as investors reassess strategies for identifying and supporting promising startups in a more uncertain economic environment.

For more in-depth exploration, listeners are encouraged to check out The Twenty Minute VC's resources and upcoming episodes.

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Transcript

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0:00The scene deals that have mattered have always been the ones that were hardest to package. They were not on the factory line. I think the most depressing thing in the world is not being wrong. It's being right and not making money. The great thing is everyone gets to write off their 2021 fund, right? The LPs aren't even holding it against. If you see this anymore, welcome back. This is 20VC with me Harry Stepping. So following the massive success of our show with Jason Lamkin on Wednesday, if you haven't listened to that, it's incredible. The best explainer on the state of the market state. But I thought we'd mix it up, I thought we'd do a round table, I thought we'd bring three incredible minds conversationalists together.

0:34For what is a great great discussion? So today we have Sam Lesson at Slow Ventures, Jason Lemkin at Saster and Frank Rockman at QED discussing the state of seed today and where it goes from here. This is an incredible discussion. It's a new format. I want to hear your thoughts on the format. Let me know on Twitter at Harry Stebbings. For a little contest on the guest today, Sam Lesson is the co -founder and partner of Slow ventures he's back in the lights of the air table, Robin Hood, Sflank, Salona and Pill Pike. Franck Rotman is a founding partner of QED where he's invested in the lights of Klaner, Kavak, Credit Commer and more and Jason Lankin is the founder of Saster where he's back in the lights of Algolia, Pike Drive, Sales Loft, Talk Desk and more.

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3:59You are now arrived at your destination. Team, I am so excited for this, I've been really looking forward to this one, I'm so used to having a one on one, now I get 3 brilliant brains joining my terrible British arts and I'm just going to dive straight in, we're doing state of the seed market state. Sam, I'm quoting you, seed investors need to come to terms with the fact that this is not an 18 month time out, it's likely much longer, even the death of systematic, thematic seed funds. Can you help me understand Sam, what did you mean by this? I've seen a lot of errors of seed investing in my life in career so far.

4:35My father an incredibly active seed investor in the late 90s in the East Coast. He used to say, I'm the largest seed investor in the East Coast, which is kind of like being the smartest utilities executive. I used to sit in a little ton of meetings around the kid in the late 90s and kind of watch the rise in the 2001 crash. Did a bunch of angel investing myself to the next decade? You know, ended up starting a seed fund with some friends in the last decade. So I've seen a few errors of this. And I think what was unique about the last era of seed funds, which really was the first time I got big and institutional, was this era where really the role of a seed fund was to kind of be the first step in a factory production line of startups that you popped out the back end, one to ten billion dollar valuation companies, pretty predictably.

5:18It was a factory system. You found a company, you packaged it up, you knew what the series A firms were looking for, you knew the series A firms, you say, Okay, we're gonna hit these two metrics. We're gonna pass you the next line of production. Next line of production does their things pass into the bees, pass into the seas, eventually pass into Goldman Sachs, pop them out, $10 billion company, everyone makes money. That's over because I think that was predicated. It wasn't just zero interest rate policy. There's a bunch of things that was predicated on, but it was predicated on this idea that because of technology and things like AWS and platforms that you could very predictably manufacture good companies, right?

5:52Not great companies. You're trying to manufacture a Facebook everyone once in a while you get lucky, right? But you could manufacture predictably the DTC companies, the companies on the scene, you knew what people wanted to pass it through the line. That's over, right? Because it turned out it didn't work. Like everyone got excited, these companies, all these companies got crushed once they want public, right? They're not good companies. The market doesn't want, you know, and we were in plenty of them, right? Along with everyone else. So my view when I say seed is dead, is that I think the factory model of seed which supported massive scaling of it is dead.

6:20And we're kind of back to where we have been historically, which is seed is a bespoke industry. Some people can do it well. It's about being better at pattern recognition. There are certain things you can get right about it. And it will be a power law game where you'll still have a few huge victories and a lot of losses. But, you know, the idea you can sit there and just manufacture pretty good outcomes from seed I think is over and not coming back. Jason Frank, who wants to take the bathroom here. Well, let me, I'll take it a bit more. But let me ask Frank a question to do it. I know that you've posted so many interesting tweet storms and how things are challenging and what's going on in Venture now.

6:53And all of us actually are ex -founders that have been doing this a little while. Is this really worse than like 2018, 2019, 2017? I only do Sassin Cloud. I completely hear Sam's point, but there are elements that are harder, like these crazy valuations, the $700 million caps on precedes, that's new. But the core investments, the core deals, I just feel like we just got to hit a reset button and go back to the vibe before late 2019. And I think the model kind of works, even if it's bespoke. So the way I would answer that is I think about the manufacturing process of companies in the same way that Sam articulated it.

7:26You're basically trying to de -risk companies and stages. So you put money into a company and at the seed stage, it's the closest thing to trying to get a writing sample out into the world. The whole goal is to see what they can accomplish with a little bit of money. And I think what's broken is what's happened from that point forward. 2017 to 2021 era was the era of alphabet soup, right? So you had an A round, a B round, a C round, a D round, an E round, an F round, like extensions. So you weren't de -risking businesses systemically. You know, when capital was incredibly cheap and it was abundant, it almost, it encouraged, you know, founders to actually invest in multiple S curves at the same time.

8:03It encouraged them to have more ambition to try to immediately jump to a great company instead of going through the stages of building a good company first. So I think if we hit the reset button, it's about saying, look, there are four stages of de -risking in the business, There's the seed, there's the A, the B, and then C is really private equity in connecting the dots to a profitable company figuring out what an exit looks like. And if we get back to a much more efficient, you know, way of de -risking businesses, which means that you will have a failure rate. You will have 20 to 30 % failure between seed and A.

8:34You will have 20 to 30 % failure between A and B. That is the root awakening for a lot of seed investors, a series A and angel investors who haven't seen this environment before. that they think it just thing go up, you know, valuation go up, company get funded. And I think those days are over where you have to get far enough, fast enough, otherwise the money isn't going to be there. I think these are all good points, but this idea that it's all sequenced, right, and that these are products. When I started investing in venture in 2013, you know, SaaS was much smaller, right? But I knew these VCs that had offered B -term sheets, the buyer and Deaters from Bessamer and Josh Stein from Threshold and the Excel team actually thought my job was to package my investments up.

9:12I would invest in a funky outsider company like Pipedrive from the Stoney or Algoly from France or Talk to us from Portugal, no one heard of them. I felt like I had a couple jobs. Help them bring in a VP of sales and then package this thing up as a product like actually more so than today when the world was smaller. And I spent 30 % of my time and I'm not a schmoozer schmoozer with these guys, schmoozer with Byron and Josh and I would socialize like a flate of things. Here's what I got going. I got you like a search. I got this. You like contact center. I don't think that's a bad thing even if the denominator is like exploded is it?

9:45I mean, I just think what that's called investment banking and I do think in the end of the day like I don't I mean like what we do that as a firm to all the time, right? I just I gotta say that like when I look at our seat portfolio over a long period of time now my own personal investing longer The scene deals that have mattered have always been the ones that were hardest to package They were not on the factory line the places we've made serious money have always been the places where we had a thesis at that scene, it was super weird and it was super cheap because it wasn't a thing that was going to be on the factory line in any firm could package and kind of pass to the series A people.

10:18And then we were right. You know, it's your point about mortality rates. I mean, we looked at our portfolios recently and it's comical how low the mortality rates are. That's obviously shifting in real time, right? And we'll go up. It's not clear to me in a world where, you know, you look at the failure rate, the overpricing, things coming out of the back again for all the middleing companies. I'm not talking about the everyone's no well break out. I'm talking about like the middleing. you can manufacture it, SaaS, or whatever. If that goes away, then I think the entire staging system really breaks down.

10:45I do think we're back to a game. We're venture capital to what it always is, which is find something really interesting that's not everyone likes. That's kind of off theme, and you're right. About some very different thesis, and then you make a thousand times your money. Not, okay, we know what the playbook is, and everyone does pretty well. I think that's what, and I think the problem with that is that if you don't have a manufacturing line, then the LP stories get way tougher, especially the scale we're talking about, right? You're not gonna have a bajillion seed fund in an efficient market for seed.

11:12The story of, well, you should bet on us because we were really good at identifying weird shit and everyone's gonna wow them a ton of money and we're gonna also light a bunch of money on fire is a way less palpable LP story than what we've been running in the last decade. Yeah, I think Sam, one of your partners will who I spend a lot of time with, he said, one of the flaws of the past few years is that everyone was trying to earn the right to do the obvious. Trying to earn the right to win these deals that everybody thought were good deals, and by the time you ended up pricing them, for you ended up getting a pretty bad deal, right?

11:41It really wasn't a deal. So, like, the concept of breaking out of this world where there are a bunch of obvious interesting companies that can be built if you just execute against it, but you end up overpaying in order to do that, that's a really poor risk return tradeoff. And I think a flaw in the ecosystem is that pricing has slowly started to correct, but it still hasn't corrected at the seed stage. Yeah, in the end of the day, like, I think seed funds and seed investors, is like the model has to be selling very expensive money. That when you're right, you're really, really right. And this idea that there was an efficiency to it, the market got big enough and whatever, and it was competing for the Quarantcoid, I couldn't, I totally agree.

12:17Like that's the breakdown of the factory. That's the standardization that goes away. Guys, can I ask you, you said they're about pricing and it started to crack a little bit. I'm not seeing that. I'm seeing multi -stage just come in harder and harder, though, not wanting to deploy serious A and B checks. I'm seeing more and more rich tech execs wanting to angel invest and continuing to see more and more people raise funds or start to try and raise funds. Pricing hasn't corrected for me. Am I in a world of my own or are you seeing something different? It is starting to ripple its way back from the public markets to the later stage rounds and from there to the mid -stage rounds and starting to ripple earlier.

12:53I think what you're seeing are more capital -efficient businesses and business plans being built. You know, so they're asking for slightly less capital. They can't invest in multiple S curves at the same time. And I do think that the correction is occurring. It's just happening slowly because a lot of insider rounds are happening in order to extend companies to earn their way into their valuations while we go through this scene. You know, what I worry about if there isn't a correct in correction at the earliest stages is that, you know, the de -risking of businesses and the building of businesses is a multi -stage game.

13:22And just because it's healthy for the first move doesn't mean that it sets you up to make the other moves well. And if pricing doesn't correct at the earliest stage, you're going to have a lot of no bits at the Series A because they wouldn't have gone far enough fast enough for a Series A investor to come in and say they've earned their way into a significant increase in valuation. And what a lot of founders don't realize is that venture capitalists, a lot of them, would prefer to give a no bid than to deliver the bad news that we like your company. But guess what? It probably needs to be a flat -rounder, a down -rounder to the last round because you haven't earned your way in.

13:55So you're reducing the aperture of downstream capital if you've overfunded yourself at the wrong valuation early on. For sure, but do you think founders care or listen? I don't think any founders are listening to these terrific insights on Twitter. I don't think that they are ratcheting back their valuation expectations. Very few are worried that when they do their seed at 30 post, that that will impact an A and less life, you know, they execute to perfection. I can't even convince a founder that's true in 2023. I don't think it's going to happen on the founders. I agree. The seed world, the tantalizing prospect of a thousand extra turn, If you really believe it's there, we'll get a lot of people and it's like sense on the dollar like who they help care I even do this.

14:34There are places like you know in history There are a few kittens in my partners are like we like the deal is to expense it And like a fuck at I'll put in a few personal dollars because like who cares? It's so little money and I do think it's cool and like whatever You know, I do think it's like that is the problem with it is that like it is a market But it's not fully a market in terms of how people treat it in a lot of ways But I will say this like will basically no bid lots of stuff where we don't see the huge asymmetry at this point whereas before when the factory model was this, we'd be like, I will admit, I said there are two types of deals we did.

15:02We did deals with work. We have fundamental conviction from zero. Hopefully no one else does, which means the price is super low because like, and we love that. It's in some ways you're hunting in the right ponds if the price is low. That's the key indication because it means no one else is bidding. Like, that's where we've made all of our money. Or, I'll be honest, even when we got sucked into, eh, there's a factory model. We know how Sikori is gonna buy this. We know the markup looks like we might as well plug into it. We have access and I think that's at least for us that ladder stage just kind of goes away and I think a lot of good firms will do that.

15:30I think they'll change with the high -speed opportunities people go after. Those things will still exist to a point but you know over time slowly these things will correct. The fundamental flaw in the discipline is that those thousand -exually turn companies only exist in areas where Tam probably is unlimited or Tam probably is like extraordinarily large. All of this generic advice going to founders, people are looking at them like they have an unlimited at TAM for every single company because I think this standard delusion concept is like a bunch of crap. Like, standard delusion is basically saying that your evaluation is just a division exercise, you know, saying that this much money, therefore my company is worth this much.

16:09And not every company is pursuing unlimited TAM or in large markets could drive a thousand X. I totally agree with you guys, the other way to look at it is like, do you need the series A firms and B firms? There are a lot of thousand X with smaller TAMs, right? If you're just like, I actually am just starting a business. I need $3 million to get started. I need it. No one else is going to give it to me. Let's get it going, but we're running it as a real business. You know, my wife started a business that does tens of millions in top line with $0 about its head investment. I just had a friend over this weekend who blows my mind, actually.

16:37You know, when I started my first company, we had excess space in Dumbo and like the mid -2000s. By far the most successful company come out of that is called Muckerack. Unbelieveable success. And to the team in the corner that actually took $0 .00 of VC until very, very late in the game when they did a private equity price round. That is not needed to be unlimited tam. That will make generate billions. The key here is, and I think it's something that needs to be relearned in the venture industry, companies need to learn to make money at low levels of scale. Yes. Either you're in an unlimited tam market where you can justify putting capital into the business and continuing to pour capital into the business.

17:12I think some SaaS companies, the tam's are just gigantic. When you look at the markets that they're actually server, but there are a lot of other where the only way to get a venture return is to being incredibly tradition and make money at low levels of scale. BUT Isn't it this the greatest moment for that, even the platform. I mean, and that was the exciting fun for me. This was bigger here.

17:46this way with revenue, with growth, with quality throughout, and to capital raising just becomes an option, not a requirement. But do you mean as part of that, the exits will be like getting your arms around old school exits of just two or three hundred million? Do you suggest VCs will have to get comfortable with that? I think that train is left the bar. I think there's there are plenty of companies that I've seen in my investing career. They absolutely should have in more than a great position to quickly exit for a few hundred million and a gap to being public companies was so large. It was never going to be surmounted and the reality is is like finance properly at seed that can be a great return if you get really good at it I do think though then the world of like stripe in the world of AWS and the world of a lot of the things There's a lot of businesses in the world which are let's call it a one billion dollar businesses You know you can start for a few million dollars and work on for a decade and be in a really interesting place You know those can't be public companies right and like trying to think about everything as an infinite damn thing as a disaster you know, most of the world's businesses are small businesses.

18:44You know, even if you add up Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, that's a small percentage of the tam of the world. Like, and I think actually, you know, the reality is focusing on the good genes of businesses and spaces that have been left out for tam reasons is exactly where to go to see the best. The operative question is, how much can you learn for how much money how quickly? Right, if I could learn everything about a business for a dollar and then know whether it was going to be a $100 million outcome or a billion in our outcome or a failure, like that dollar is incredibly well spent. And the problem is, a lot of the businesses during this last super cycle, especially towards the end, you actually didn't get a lot of knowledge about de -risking and a lot of money had been invested in the business.

19:21You know, if I look at the history of our 20X pluses and we have a few hundred X pluses, like these were businesses that for very limited amounts of money were able to de -risk the business so that you knew that you were on a path to something very big. And once you knew you were on a path to something very big, your capital strategy actually changes about how much capital you're willing to come into the business in order to generate enterprise value for everyone and ultimately a return for investors. The sloppiness was inserting a lot of capital into companies before you had cracked the code.

19:51That almost took ruins returns. Maybe, but I think the reality, this is the way I would say we talked about generic, we've had a long time, which is seed investing is about de -risking the one two key bets, which thing unlock a series. I mean, we've got to be water to CCs that you're proving a and then once you've done that, oh my God, you're in a much better place for your next round and more capital comes in. I actually would argue that like that is what I would say is not gonna happen anymore. It is like the idea that you're just de -resking and there's an efficient market downstream of you is the thing that I am no longer willing to consistently bet on.

20:21I'm much more interested in saying, for two, three million bucks, start making money. Start something that is profitable, right? And then get me to a place where like every subsequent capital rate is a thing I can do if the money's priced well, if I know what to do with it, etc. But I don't have to do. With rare exception, don't use your seed dollars as an experiment to de -risk anymore. The experiments slash de -risk should be actually having a business that works. Can I throw out a meta question here, maybe you could comment too, but to the group? Let me talk to you what I think the ultimate seed investment was.

20:51Maybe not even SaaS, but SaaS adjacent is the trade desk. The trade desk today is worth $40 billion. $41 billion. It was led by two true seed funds, right? IA Ventures, right? Well, I don't know. Tell me 40, 50 million dollar fund and founder collective a 20 billion dollar fund I owned a little bit more, but let's call them both in around and a half They about 20 % I know they did distribute early, but let's assume they they held to 40 billion They each own 20 % that's 8 billion each out of funds that are smaller than 80 million, right? So this is classic. I'm gonna get in at single digit millions I'm gonna own 20 % through two rounds with two great founders and And my bigger concern is that I think those are dead -ish in seed, right?

21:32Owning 1 % is still good, 1 % of 40 billion is good. But that's the classic seed that I think we're griping about. Like can we do trade desks today, right? Because that's your career, I mean, Rogers was hired. And he had a few others in that fund. I mean, I don't know what that fund was, but it was double digit X the long taffyco, right? Just a thought. Does that exist? That magical seed deal, right? Like, in the last several years, absolutely, but it didn't exist in the factory model, right? Like, I made a thousand X on our Solon A seed. I have a company called Team Shares, which we put in our first check at four posts that is now touching a billion.

22:07It is a real company with hundreds of millions in revenue. I bought 20 % of that company for $500 ,000. And these deals exist, but like, the reason is those existed is because people didn't like them then, not because they did like them, right? But if those exist regularly, then seed is the best. Even though it's unpredictable and it's hard to get information, it's epic. Right? That's where you get your thousand X, so those trade deals. Yeah, you think you're doing the only to light a lot of money on fire along the way, which I think is, you know, the other part of it. To your point about sizing, the other thing is fun size.

22:36If you have a $50, even $100 million fund, you can make seed math work. But these mega seed funds, like in all of a sudden, oh my god, your $2 billion return is only a $3 X. The math won't work, right? Well, Sam, trying to dispose something to you, you said about fun size that. Say if you have a $50 million fun size, you've got $40 million investible, you want to do seed stay with the average seed being 3 -4. You can't lead seed rounds with that and have enough diversification. You've got $22 million checks there and 20 at seed assumes that you're a pretty fricking good picker and that's totally done with no reserves.

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23:09Yes, it's good, it's not nearly enough. I would argue that a hundred is not even enough. I don't know, but on the flip side I think like you just got to be good at picking like no one said it's easy. You only get so many boards in the gun. The reality, Harry, on this is like, I think the most depressing thing in the world is not being wrong It's being right and not making money, you know being right to the tune of like having these epic outcomes And you're like, oh fuck that was a one x returner of the fun fuck, right? Like that's the thing that like is kind of the worst case scenario, right? Because those are rare and and part of it Can I ask do you think we're looking at loss rates in the right way?

23:41Like we mentioned there about kind of the challenges of picking in the right levels of diversification How do you think about loss rates and whether this generation is completely skewed in terms of the mentality around loss rates and graduation rates? Look, I was looking at some data from CrunchBase just to figure out like what percentage of the entire venture world ends up becoming public companies? And it ends up that it's a single digit number and in fact for some Vintages that number is 2 % for some it's 3 some it's 4 but it's not 8 % or 10 % of companies end up becoming public companies. So what you're really looking about is call it a 1 in 50, you know, has the potential to actually execute against a plan Be in a space that's big enough to create the type of outcome that the industry actually cares about But in the venture world in general like you need an IPOable event or a a mega sale of the variety of a honey or a credit Karma to kind of make things work.

24:31It's just small. So you have to I don't know, but it doesn't have to be the casepring. So I started thinking this then directly true I think we got very everyone got addicted to this idea of you can manufacture five billion dollar companies Not maybe 50 but five but I mean, I'm very interested personally I think the future is in these companies a lot of companies You can put $30 million into and get to a place where like you're pretty sure it's profitable It's gonna be worth a hundred two hundred and you have an option on something much bigger, right? Like that's kind of the thing that I think is most interesting these days, right is like options But why is that a better use of time than finding the trade owning 20?

25:05I just I think it's why do you care about that seeming downside mitigation? Totally respect the smaller businesses being Harry and I have both built media businesses. I mean, I've got one that doing almost 30 million on the side. Harry's got a one doing million. I get that life. No, all boots strapped. But why do you want optionality as a VC? No, I guess the question in my mind is like, does building a 100, 200, 300 million dollar company really give up the option value of building the 10 or 20 or 50 billion dollar company? I think there's a lot of examples at this point, right in our in history of people that build the kind of obvious winner, right?

25:37And do a really good job with it and then graduate at like square space. You name it like Anthony's company. Like we can go down the line and like I see people got into this mentality. And it was partially because money was free and partially because of like Uber and Lyft and everything's in Airbnb and blah, blah, blah. I was like the way to play home run Derby is to start with the home run Derby mentality. And I actually think it's not like baseball. It's not like by getting on first. you don't get a chance to hit home run right or a grand slam. I actually get a lot of cases getting on first is the best way to set yourself up for a 10 -year sprint at a home run.

26:08I don't think great companies are just manufactured. Great companies are built on top of good companies. Like you have to get to good first. Yeah. And then you can eventually get to great. And when you get to good, you can stand on whatever that mountaineal is and look around and see what optionality you have. But do you think founders care anymore, Frank? Let me give you an example here in Ieware chatting, we each had the other day about companies that have infinite runway and are overfunded, okay, and are never going to get anywhere. I only have one in my portfolio. The first time in 10 years now looks, I don't invest as often as you guys that I've been 25 investments over 10 years, but I've done, you know, I've invested nine figures at Capitol and I asked one founder and 10 years for my money back, not all of it, just some, and you know what his response was that I feel like this is very au courant.

26:47What do you care? His response back wasn't why or I needed or I wanted to keep going. It's like, what do you, there's no respect for capital. And I'm not saying most founders are that blunt, but I see it again and again. But I don't think founders care about whether the 10X rule, the same thing you I wrote a 10 years ago, the 10X rule, right? You got to sell for at least 10X what you raised. I said it hilariously in shock, and there's a lot of, you know, normally even some known public companies that are tech exits are not even close to that, right? Like it's kind of comical, what a waste of capital, right?

27:18This pharmacation though has changed the mentality of founders forever. Whether we're going back to farms or not, I don't think founders think the same way they used to. I don't think there's respect for capital. I think these things change over time, right? You might be right that there's a moment in Silicon Valley, whatever a founder is like that. But again, I just look at my friends who have started businesses that they wholly own or put a tiny amount of capital into it and have scaled ridiculously. They're happier, they're way richer, right? And they have a ton of option value into the future versus the people who own 10 % of hot things, right?

27:47And they're kind of like holding on to big corporate structures. So I think that there's a big opportunity and I think what we'll see is yes, sure people will still hear the lore of certain types of venture You want to raise it high prices and they won't care and they'll do their art project I actually am very optimistic that there's gonna be a whole generation of people are like, oh shit It is a much better life to own 80 % of a business that has 50 million top line Then on 10 % of a business that does 500 right with a bunch of VCs in it, right? And I think you're gonna start seeing people being much smarter about how they want to manage their time and their entrepreneurial efforts towards outcomes that are fucking much better for them and can't be better for venture capitalists.

28:23So yeah, of course, like, the kids can understand for who like have this like, I want to be Elon Musk thing, like, I'm not gonna find those people. Every little time I all miss one, because like, I love the founders, fun guys, they're really good at finding exactly the right crazy, right? I'm not gonna find those people in general, but like, I think it's like a two general that say it's a founder thing. I actually think there's just tons of entrepreneurial talent that's gonna reevaluate whether they want to be even the success scenario running a $1 billion penny stock public company if they win right with too much capital in it.

28:52I think the answer to them is like that's actually a pretty shitty job. The fallacy in that point, and I agree with this, I've done it. Like I this idea of this, everyone that's chilled themselves for now come and only owned a little bit and seen the economics to say, oh my god, I want to own my own $30 million business, I own 100 % of the fallacy in that argument I've seen in SaaS is most found, maybe I can't say most because there's not enough data. I think they fall behind competitively. I think that venture is not magical. I think venture has been abused the last few years. It has been abused to fund over hiring and massive teams that are not required.

29:24But you go through a phase transition as you scale, maybe it's not even till after 5 or 10 million, where if you don't have capital, you can't all be at Lassian or Qualtrics and they fall behind competitively. And I think that's the fallacy of the lifestyle -esque business, right? Where media businesses are different, the information can be wildly more compelling today than and before, but I don't know about a $20 million chip of payroll company that raised nothing when Ripley and Gusto and everyone is out there maybe in Deal, maybe, but we could trick founders into a path that's right. Here's my client and this goes from a bar, which is like, I mean, this is not meant to be aggressive, but maybe a little bit provocative, which is like, is sassy good place to be investing anymore?

29:59It might not be. I just didn't know anything else. In my initial investment memos, I wrote these were all terrible investments. I first decked corned talk desk, I wrote in the investment, well, this will never be worth more than 150 million, and that was unlikely. because 5 .9, which was the comp, was only worth 150 million at the time. You know, maybe only B2C and FinTech make sense because that's your only way to have a $500 billion company, right? Or there's like a ton of other, there's a big world out there and there's a bajillion other industries that are great if you take the kind of approach of systematic building and profitability and option value, right?

30:30I just think SaaS is a particularly weird race. You know, I'm not spending a lot of time on SaaS these days. I think partially for the dynamics you're talking about, right? which is like, I like Parker, and like I'm super psyched for him, that he's like pulled off, or he's pulled off, but like that's not a game that I feel particularly excited about playing repeatedly. I would think about it a little bit differently. You know, when you get proof, it means that you're on track to build this magical business, that the spreadsheet they gave you describes three or four years out. You feel momentum in these businesses, and when there is momentum, which by the way, is real, like when things are going right, they continue to go right, and usually that compounds over time.

31:03So if you're generating proof, that's a good time to examine and whether capital actually would be an accelerant. Now the problem is when you generate anti -proof, right, the go -to -market motion is harder than you projected. Things are getting worse than you thought. You know, the trends are in the opposite direction. Sometimes the wrong answer is to put more capital into that business. And the problem with the past couple of years, especially at peak madness, people just looked at the top line and everything was a multiple of ARR. And they said, if you're bigger, therefore you're more valuable, therefore I can put more money into the company.

31:32But if it was harder to get that doubling than you thought, or it costs you more to get that doubling than you thought? You're actually generating anti -proof of the business. But when money was free, if revenue was 2x, enterprise value was 2x, therefore I can put more money in the company and feel good about it. So I think we have to get back to actually examining these businesses for what they are, getting rid of the proximity bias of the founders, you know, figuring out how you can be a bit more agnostic as an investor and really look at the business and see if a deserves capital or not. And I think those are going to be like the best investments when you're getting proof without anti -proof, you're putting money into the companies that are growing and things are actually working and the model is coming true.

32:12Darwin will do its job by limiting capital availability that I think people are going to start staring at these marginal businesses and we'll see what happens to them. We've looked at different models here. We've seen multi -stage funds as we've discussed. We've discussed pure play seed funds. Sam, you've said something that was different towards Jason said the other day. So I'm intrigued to hear these opposing thoughts. You've written the clubby seed investing and the YC play but will certainly not work anymore. And then Jason we chanted the other day about actually wide party rounds and proliferation of very rich tech execs from the liquid years we've had over the last years is more than ever.

32:48Are these two ideas arguing with each other? Are they the same? I'm trying to understand do we have more party rounds less party rounds more itch execs last rich ex, which one is it? The Y -ce thing in particular was if we're telling about venture capital to factory, that was like ground zero for the construction of the factory. It literally was like, oh, venture capital and like how you raise money and form these companies is like the so -pick playbook, it's hard to figure out. It's literally here as playbook, and then here is demo day we bring in a bunch of every investor they did, they did it up, they justify our seven percent were done, it's packaged, it moves on the factory line.

33:24It is the purest part of the factory you can imagine and as an investor, we've stayed away from it for a long time Parts because there's no signal in it because everything comes off the factory line and look them exactly the same package properly All looks fine, but it's packages, etc etc So the factory part is the bed part party rounds rich tech execs sure there are lots of rich tech execs And like again seed investing is fun and you get 50 % in a money back when it fails right so the nice part about mortality rate being buyers get your money back faster at $0 .50 on the dollar, right? You know, as a tax write -off.

33:52So like, sure, that'll happen. People can team up on that. But I think that's more about the capital side than in my mind than it is the factory part. Jason French, you agree in terms of YC's days being challenged as ground zero for factory line formation? You know, I have my own issues with accelerators about the type of advice that they're able to actually give companies and not just YC, but there are a bunch of different factories out there that might not understand the nuances of businesses like we are FinTech investors and it's a highly regulated industry and you have to do things a certain way.

34:24And we find that some of the things coming off the factory, the hygiene about how they were built and what they learned during their period in the factory, wasn't necessarily the things or the order that they should be learning. Now they weren't set up in necessarily the right way. A lot of the growth trajectory was an unscalable things in order to get the up into the right 45 degree chart so that you can package it for a demo day. You know, so there are a lot of artificial things done in order to package it. To say I was point, it will come off the factory all looking the same. And a lot of that advice, you actually have to undo, you know, if you end up funding the company.

34:54So you end up overpaying and then having to undo a bunch of the damage. So I just worry about are the companies actually getting the proper advice for the industry they're in, you know, from a generic factory doing hundreds of businesses a year? Jason, how do you feel? So one thing is I like to only invest in outsiders and first time CEOs on a two by two outsider first time CEO and over time the obvious lesson I've learned is you want to find really great CEOs right and you know sometimes you'll get an email from Frank or Sam and say hey this is the best kid I've worked with in 72 years like you know okay if you trust them or Harry says the smartest kid if it's outsiders and first time CEOs you can only guess I enjoy the fact that YC is an IQ and drive filter it is not perfect there are folks in each batch of 200 that are not as smart as the rest or that are gaining the system.

35:40But above average, I know high drive and high IQ. I love it. And so I will enjoy that meeting. I will take that meeting. I will take a cold inbound that is worse than a traditional from a YC company and I don't actually mind the 20 million post. It's okay for my fun size, which isn't even huge. What is hard today is that the rounds are too split up. And I've done two YC companies. One, I led the seed. I'll hopefully it will IPO next year and another one I love that we do together, Harry Revenue Cat. But I don't think I can get those ownership today with the fun style. That's for me. I can't have to give up on YC, not because I won't pay or don't love the signal.

36:15If there's 84 people in the round, I didn't know putting me putting 100 grand in a 20 post. It just doesn't get me the 100x fun. Sam was talking to you. It doesn't even get me close to 1x. So I just don't have the time to invest. And I just don't have the time at this point in life, right? But I love the signal, actually. Inventure, there are a lot of ways to make money, but you have to choose one of them and do it well. Accelerators is very hard. Right, they're crowded. And we don't like crowded cap tables in general. We like when we have, you know, friendlies who have diversity of rolodex or diversity of ability to hire or diversity of introduction they can make to different companies.

36:48You've got to be very careful about who you're assembling around the cap table and a lot of these party rounds. Like, 40 and 50 people taking up a lot of room. To series A investors give a shit if the seed company that's graduating has a party round before or an institutional seat. Do they care? No, why would they care? Yeah, this is the trade -off the paradox, right? Seed investors might not like 48 people out in the round, but if the seed guys will still do the deal, maybe the founders are happy with John Collision and Olivier from DataDog and, uh, you know, all the other folks on their cap table that they will respond to an email.

37:22In my ecosystem, it's pretty amazing what one that you know, a ten or a hundred billion dollar company CEO will actually respond thoughtfully More than many VCs frankly who's just say good job good job kid good job pal That's my favorite email good job. What's wrong good job? Good job. Let's not say let me know I can help Let's just simplify it to good job. I know she's gonna thumbs up the best use of an emoticon ever is the investor update thumbs up If you have 30 hundred K checks from amazing amazing individuals and it actually means something to them It can be just a strategic. Like in the end of the day, there are plenty of people who do this seat.

37:55They don't need help. They're gonna do this seat on their own. Sure, I'm gonna call here. There is helpful. And those people don't. It doesn't matter. Just money. Like we're just selling the money. We have this thing, which is very different. I think we didn't sound like Jason Frank, I go approach. Which is like, when people sometimes ask slow ventures, they're like, what do you guys do to support founders? And my answer is always nothing. Now, that's not actually true. But like, when people ask, my answer is nothing. Because if you're coming to me for help, My view is you're almost by definition.

38:22You're saying I need help us ever I want help I think you're a weak founder and like I want founders who are like I got this I got the plan you're money to me Right, and then sure actually we will be helpful. No, our things we do But like I think there's signal on how people think about that and it's very different like if you are really like I got this say the fuck out of my business you want 30 famous people at a high price go nuts Like it doesn't matter to the series a firms find the weird shit No one else can fun with the money's expensive because the founders the tonic conviction and wants to go for it and you can see it and you're gonna be wrong a bunch, but everyone's gonna allow you really right.

38:52So I'm with you, totally. A chase and disagreements with me. In terms of we can't really help the best founders, I know almost no founders that are born amazing recruiters. I don't know too many first time founders that know I'd recruit a perfect VP of sales or a perfect VP of marketing, let alone a true VP of engineering even for a CTO. And I think that is an area you can add massive value. It's seen in fact, I think that all venture firms of failed with their talent arms. I think all venture firms that are seed into A, actually, they're just investing firms, but if they really want to do what they pretend they should do, at least half the headcount should be recruiting.

39:28Not fake recruiting, not some of that doesn't want to work hard at a tech company and is phoning it in at a big venture firm. That's the value or not that VCs aren't delivering like none. None of these talent arms really work, right? They don't. That's amazing. That's what I've seen make the end of the story. I think that's right. I think it's right. It's right. classic thing is like when people come to me they're like I need help recruiting. I'm like go over to someone else. I don't think they say that. I think they say what they a founder will typically say is I need a great VP of sales like they all come to the same conclusion somewhere approaching a million in revenue right no go out and find their own person but if you can actually help them find that person there was actually the number one person that rippling today that was there early that match or whatever it is it's a game changer seed firms all think they want to be on speed dial That's nice, but I am the guy who agreed to it and it sales is particularly interesting when I would actually argue in my life as an entrepreneur I've like never successfully hired sales.

40:22I think sales is incredibly hard to hire at startups I specifically because the whole nature of sales is like the people who want to go early are like Anti -correlated with the good people right because that is not how sales works Right like in general like the whole point sales is coin operated You want to go to a place with a playbook super clear? You just go fucking make bang the people are like oh, I want an entrepreneurial adventure and go early Those people are almost always the worst sales people, right? So I think if you are a specialist at that and you can crush early status sales, that's a superpower You don't even need to have a venture fund.

40:50You can just take equity. Don't put money in just take equity for finding Vanishingly small number of people that sit the I'm actually good at sales not doing it not just strategizing about it And I want to go early. I mean that alone is like a winning strategy is certainly not one we have I do want to just be cognizant of time and I want to finish on a bet me and Jason had a bet and we had a bet on IPO timing and I think he's batshit crazy, but also I hope he's right. So Jason bet me that he thought there would be an IPO week I think it was from the back half of next year. So 2020 for age two, we're going to have an IPO week.

41:31The flood gates are going to open on IPO's second half of next year. Do you agree? Can I understand the con? It's just these is on that because everyone will be completely out of money as they're going to dump it because they just have to get out? No, no, no. I think times are materially better than 12 months ago. Ignore the measurement point of 2021. Public markets are up 30 % every public company is more efficient. Even me, I have five investments I've made north of 200 million in revenue growing 30 % are faster than are now efficient. They're ready to IPO when the markets say it's okay and they're not an IPA, they certainly were laughing six months ago, but if multiples stay here or go up, they're all going to go out in late 2024, right?

42:09It's 2023 is too soon. So they're not actually up. It's the biggest play in the market that are up, right? I think that's like the big question is there's a stand. I might be wrong. Listen, I'm not, I bet Terry five to one, I may lose this bet. I just feel like what we're missing in all the ups, the drama, the craziness of the last four years, I mean, insane what we went through, right? is how many good companies got to 200 million or more that are now, bless their soul, that are now efficient. And I may have the timing all wrong, I'm too optimistic, but I think there's 26 of them, which is one a week.

42:39I think there's 26 good companies at 200 that can IPO in 26 weeks in the back of a 20. But I may be - I'll take the under with Harry on this and here's what he's gonna say. I don't mean I'm only going one to one on you, Sam. I want five to one on Harry. If Frank and Sam take it, I'm just one to one, because I'm already 50 grand into this. So I'm not going 100. I'll go one to one of you. but here's the basic theory. I think that's the thing that everyone's missing. And this is again, again, I could be very wrong. This is, no one gives a shit about a company that does 200 million top line and grows with 30 % margins.

43:06No one cares. It's like easier to just invest in Facebook, right? I'm being provocative here, me out, which is like, I think this is like actually the big shift in the world, which is like take the AI theme. It's like, you want a bet on AI, bet on Facebook, bet on Amazon, bet on Microsoft. It's so obvious like where to put public market dollars, betting on like a $200 million top line company that's fine, but has a bunch of risks, similar to market, and they're kind of small. Like, I don't actually think that's the future, and it is part of the reason why I think I see home run Derby or be small and nimble and be a good business and patient and have options.

43:40Is I think that's the whole factory line thing, is like the good businesses aren't worth as much as people thought they were. The great businesses are worth more. And so I just think that you're not gonna see it because like, no one cares if you make $200 million a year. I would say that Jason's narrative is right. I think the timing is probably wrong. So I think there are a lot of companies that are kind of baking and it's just a matter of time. But I don't think it's gonna be one a week in the back half of next year. I think it will open up in the half of next year and maybe the year after. Oh, you're gonna take the bet too, right?

44:10You're gonna go in with Harry. That's three to one. You're taking this bet too, Frank. It's 10 grand. Sure. It's a fun to expect. I've got a lot of exposure here, Erie. I got 80 grand of exposure here. I'm a little optimistic. Frank said I'm directly correct. I'm just my time means to optimistic and that's quite plausible to me. That sounds quite plausible, but I'm a little optimistic. I think only the plausibility that the entire idea of a $200 million revenue growing public company is bunk in the future is you know like that thesis. You might be right. Here's the thing. If you look at the HubSpots, you can do a 10X or in the public market.

44:39It's like there's two ways to look at the IPO. Either I can either price it cheap and let me flip it, right, which I think is going to be important the next year, right? Is it we don't do these bill girly, perfect pricings for a while? And then hey, is this as good as HubSpot when an IPO do I have a shot at 10x, going to your point, actually, Sam, I think that's a great bet if it has a chance to be worse case. I lose a little bit of money. It can ride off some long -term capital gains. Best case, there isn't a ceiling to some of these folks. Like the hub spots, the data dogs I'll take, so I'm optimistic.

45:06I also think 08109 were like, I know VCs think differently. I think 08109 as a founder was like 50 trillion times worse than today. The world was ending into 08109. And when we came out of this in 2011 and 2012, I know it's not the same, but we bounced back so much faster than we thought. And when I look at what Elastia is saying, like they're bouncing off the bottom and Mongo's bouncing off the bottom and other folks are seeing things improve. I know this is VC is something I'm good at, but we don't always know the slope of the curve in the early days. So I do think there's a chance, we're never going back to 2021, but I think there's a chance 2024 is better than it feels in our gut today.

45:38Like I think we maybe, the slope may be better. It just think like the future seems to me to be like constellation software style, like roll ups, PE, you own a bunch of things and get bulk up, slash, it's the Megadon, so whatever you wanna call them, cause like been saying that for decades. But it kinda is playing out. And like I think that's the thing, is like you look at my busy, you would be like, there used to be this idea that like companies could only get so big. And so like the reason you didn't buy more Apple stock I'd trillian, cause like, or 800 billion. Cause no one'd see a trillion dollar company.

46:05Now like, there seems to be no upper bound and the biggest guys are crushing it. And so to me, as long as the biggest guys keep crushing it and we tail on everyone's like, I can just buy more Apple stock. Maybe that's how the best example this week. but like it's a survey of safe bet. You know, the beauty is adventure. We can always just raise another fund. You know, the great thing is everyone gets to write off their 2021 fund, right? The LPs aren't even holding it against VCs anymore. So VCs have this special gift. You know, everyone's allowed one bad fund, aren't they? It's wrong. They're, they're, they're cutting fun sizes left and right.

46:34And they're combining funds to bulk them up. I actually think you're seeing very real repercussions, right? As people realign here. There have been many articles published recently about people dramatically cutting slash underfunding funds, combining funds to bulk them up because they can't raise the vertical vehicles, etc. There is absolutely an L people back and it's very real in material. Now, will Anderson raise any fund, of course? The scale is definitely dropping. Just one metric. I looked at this before in 2019, the average SaaS company they want public absorbed just shy of 400 million in capital, 390 million in capital before they want public.

47:06Now, there haven't been any IPOs for a while and there's a few downhunts going on, but I have to assume when the engine revives, we will absorb 400 million again per IPO, and that should reflate all these megafunds, like no matter what else is happening today, with venture being negative for LP's last year, and valuations being down, there's some raw math of how I think these bigger funds are designed to absorb that 400 million, right? How can I put 200 million of the 400 million going into data dog? That's their goal, right? Yeah, LP's are waking up. I mean, we just completed a fundraise and talked to probably 150 LP's a lot of them are the same LPs that end up funding a lot of the funds.

47:45They definitely are waking up. Like if you are a mid -tier firm with good but not great results, like they are consolidating, they are making very strategic choices about which funds they're putting money into and which ones they're not going to renew. They have, you know, very tough conversations about which emerging managers that they did fund that they're no longer going to fund when they come back to market. So I think this plays out over a number of years, it doesn't happen instantaneously which is why you might not be seeing it or feeling it. Also a lot of the funds are coming back to market because they know that they would be raising off of the track record which is depressed because everyone is taking markdowns right now.

48:21So they're avoiding going back to market. If they did go back to market, a lot of them wouldn't be received very well. So there is a period of time right now where the LPs are awake and they are rationalizing where they're putting their money. And the question is like if Jason is right with the IPOs, then money will flow back into the LP ecosystem once the IPO window opens up and that might reverse course. But I think for a number of years, like if you are a middling fund, you're going to have problems raising capital. Right, we're going to do a quick fire round, chaps, otherwise I'm going to keep you all day.

48:50So I'm going to say a short statement to each of you, I'm going to direct it and then we're going to rock and roll. We'll do one each. Frank was the most important trend in the venture world that not many people are paying attention to. Companies are trying to figure out how to make money at low levels of scale. The capital efficiency is coming back into kind of the decision making, you know, within the venture world. Do you think not many people are paying attention to that? I think that at the earliest stage, they still think narrative is carrying the day, and I think narrative is going to stop at the seed.

49:19I want it used to flow through to the Series A and even into the Series B. So I think the trend is you can raise on narrative at seed and then its results starting at Series A. What do you believe that most around you disbelieve? That's a great question, but I am very excited to fund a bunch of companies at Five and under in weird things that are coming to you because no one else will give them money That are going to be highly profitable on the way up and create option value down a line, right? So it's kind of a riff on what Frank is saying a different way, but like an earlier thing Which is like that's my jam like I don't want to ever be relying on a series a firm again Jason final one Or would you most like to change about the world adventure moving forwards?

49:59You have the magic wand, you can change anything. I wish my magic wand worked. Going back to Frank's point, I would like to have more concentration rounds. I would like to be able to magically buy at least 10 % of any seed company I meet that I want to invest in. That would be a gift. That's my biggest stumbling block to investing. Is like, I have to wait on too many deals where I can't get double digit ownership, and I just don't believe I can make any money without it. Guys, listen, I've loved doing this. Thank you so much for university the besting against Jason with me on this. I'll super appreciate the support.

50:29It was like I'm gonna lose 70 grand, but it's okay. Big guys, honestly, this has been fantastic. So thank you so much. Well, okay, because you have 26 IPOs coming in the bar, right? Chai, which I own 10 % of each. I mean, I just absolutely loved in that show. It's so nice to have that discussion format. Let me know what you think of the new format of the show. We're gonna be doing one every two weeks. So let me know on Twitter at Harry's Debbings and other love to hear your thoughts. But before we leave you today, you know all those mind -numbing tedious tasks that seemingly take up half your day, will code is here with their new AI powered work assistant that helps you and your team not just finish tasks, but make progress.

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52:35Check them out now at navan .com forward slash 20V scene and last but by no means least we need to talk cash. As of 29th June you can get 5 .5 % yield on your cash with 26 -week Treasury bills. But buying Treasury bills is not bad easy and you have to navigate a website that looks like it was made before I was born, enter public .com. Their Treasury accounts make it simple to earn a high yield on your cash and it takes 20 seconds. Here's how it works. Sign up at public .com, easily purchased 26 -week Treasury bills that automatically roll over at maturity for a compounding yield, plus there are no minimum hold periods.

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From the publisher

Sam Lessin is a Co-Founder and Partner @ Slow Ventures with a portfolio including the likes of Airtable, Robinhood, Slack, Solana, PillPack and many more unicorn companies. Prior to Slow, Sam was a VP Product at Facebook having sold his company to Meta.

Frank Rotman is a founding partner of QED Investors, one of the leading fintech-focused venture firms investing today with a portfolio including the likes of Klarna, Kavak, Quinto Andar, Credit Karma and more. As for Frank, prior to QED, Frank was one of the earliest analysts hired into Capital One and spent almost 13 years there helping build many of the company’s business units and operational areas. 

Jason Lemkin is the Founder @ SaaStr one of the best-performing early-stage venture funds focused on SaaS. In the past, Jason has led investments in Algolia, Pipedrive, Salesloft, TalkDesk, and RevenueCat to name a few. Prior to SaaStr, Jason was an entrepreneur, selling EchoSign to Adobe for $100M where it is now a $250M ARR product.

In Today's Discussion on Why Seed is Broken We Discuss:

1. The Seed Model Was Broken and What Comes Now:

  • Why does Sam Lessin believe the model for seed of a "factory line" was broken?
  • What does he believe will replace it?
  • Why does Jason Lemkin argue that this might not be the case for SaaS and enterprise?

2. Round Construction: YC, Multi-Stage Funds and Party Rounds:

  • Why does Sam Lessin believe we have seen the end of party rounds? Why does Jason Lemkin disagree and we will see more than ever?
  • Why does Sam Lessin believe the factory model of YC churning out companies is over? Where does Jason Lemkin believe the value lies in the YC model?
  • Will the multi-stage funds remain in seed? How has their entrance and deployment changed the seed market?

3. VC Value Add at Seed: Is it BS?

  • Why does Jason believe all talent arms in venture firms have failed?
  • Why does Sam believe that no VCs provide value?
  • Do the best founders really need help? Why do Jason and Sam disagree?

4. What Happens Now:

  • Why does Jason believe that every manager can write off their fund from 2021?
  • Who will be the winners in seed in the next 10 years?
  • Why does Sam believe if you want to bet on AI, just bet on Meta or Microsoft?
  • What will happen to the many companies with no PMF but 10 years of runway?

More from The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch

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20VC Roundtable: NEW FORMAT: Why the Seed Investing Model is Broken, How to Make Money at Seed Moving Forward; Who Wins and Who Loses, Why Venture Value Add Platforms are BS and Failed and Why There Will be an IPO per Week in H2 2024The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch · 54 min
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