20VC: The Insane Story of DeliveryHero: Losing $200M on a Gorillas Investment | Winning the Emerging Markets Delivery War with 35 Acquisitions | Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race with Niklas Östberg

26:51I think you have to divide the organ responsibility and ownership very carefully and making sure that everyone can see their impact very clearly. So the setup we have, for example, we make sure that there's a clear ownership on the country level and making sure that they have that autonomy in that ownership. So for them, they can really make an impact in that country. It's very tangible what they do and outcome. If we set the goal of driving over all business to a size, then each individual cannot make really that impact, then cannot be that visible what they do. So you have to find a way that you can actually divide the goals in a way that is clearly measurable what you do and every part of the organization or every person in that organization and making sure that you drive that accountability and visibility and clarity.

27:39And if you do that, I think it's very easy to manage the organization. It's very clear who is a strong performer who's not. If goals are very tightly aligned to what the people actually do and the organizations set up such that you have that that the build responsibility on a smaller basis, smaller buckets. What you see in many companies over time is that they get too big, they get the goals at too large, it's not divided in, it's very transparent, whatever one does and how they contribute to their goals. And they start getting inwards looking. They don't look at what the actual output that they're driving, they rather look at how much they work, what they deliver, but it can be for not for consumer customers, but for maintaining the organization.

28:22So I think building a culture with output really matters and making sure that you divide the organization such that you have ownership and account built on very low level. We mentioned the Bivos build earlier. I do want to go back to that. As the master of M &A, how many acquisitions have you made in a class? I don't know. It's been a lot, but I think over 35 though. Yes, yes. We have done a lot, but most of them have been very, very small. And what we believed in is that we believe in those local entrepreneurs who knows the market better than Iran and we can leverage the fact that we know how to scale things and we know how to measure things and we know how to get good returns.

28:58So if I give some other examples, Petit Oshia was acquired when the company did 60 ,000 orders per month. Today it does maybe 20 million orders per month or close to at least. So of course it was very small businesses back then. I don't know, you know, Talabad is a company back then I think that it's 70 ,000 orders per month. So it's literally nothing. But we were good at leverage, we were good at which automate, try efficiency, knowing how to invest, taking over, building on scaling that while we felt that we had a big benefit of having those local entrepreneurs that we can plug into. And I think that has been a big success of the But we rarely made big M &A.

29:44That's been one or two big M &A, like Louisville. But most M &A have been rather small and rather being like you're acquiring a team and you require yourself one year of head start. Is it easier to buy a company versus build a company? I think for most companies it's harder to buy a company and be successful there. I think the hard part is not buying a company, the hard part is to make something good out of that company. That's probably something delivery has been very good at. They've been good at fostering this entrepreneurship and getting them on board and that's probably success. We're going to get to how you retain entrepreneurs in a way that no one else manages to do.

30:25I just want to stick on the pre -buy process. Do you always like to invest first or will you buy straight? What's the preference? I think in the past we knew that we had to build scale very fast. Probably wrongly so we looked at just the feedback then. It was this huge company when we started. It had been operating for 10, 15 years. We had another company called Takeaway. That is now one company just the Takeaway. But that was the gorilla back then. And we felt we would not stand a chance unless we scale fast. In order to scale fast we just have to buy and have to build. And we have to do that in aggregate.

30:59it. I think over times the industry changed, logistics came, Uber and others and the market improved that it can start this business way later than we did. But we believe that the only way to build scale fast enough was to buy back down. I think if you look at things right now, we probably prefer to build. The main logic for that is buying something now will be, well, at the time will be extraordinary expensive given that we still consider delivery to be under value, but also even if you buy ourselves another 3, 4, 5 % business and size, if that distracts us with 2, 3, 4 % then effective we didn't achieve anything and we only spend money on it.

31:40So in order for us to buy it really needs to be something where we feel here we have a very strong team, we can plug it into a machine and it will make rest of the delivery here a better So to what extent do you let the attitudes of the street public market investors impact your buying mindset? When you're looking in an asset like Globo for example, I'm not picking on them, I'm just choosing it as a well known asset that we got introduced through. The public market may love it or they may hate it, I'm not sure, but they will have a feeling. To what extent do you let that permeate into your buying mindset?

32:15I think we can see the core horse, we can see the acquisition growth, we can see the customer experience, we can see all the data in the world to know if this is a good acquisition or not. If you take a little less than example, it was very clear from us from the very first day that this would be an unbelievable, profitable company. Why would not benefit you from the first day, respectfully? It is a expansive business to run. It's a tough business. We very love these businesses. Well, it's not obvious to everyone. Why was it obvious to you? It's very simple. We see the cohorts, we see what is the repeat rate of our customers, and then how many customers are required per month, and how do the existing base evolve over time, and how many do we add to that?

32:59That would very clearly give you a certain growth trajectory. There's not an unashamed cohort's identical. What I mean by that is, as you expand cohorts, you will get less and less close to your ideal customer profile. They will be further away from your target market as naturally happens with customers. And so the cohorts may behave differently. How do you see what I mean? Yeah, I do, but the benefit we have here is that we also own a lot of assets in delivery here with more than 20 years of cohort development, where we have enormous amount of pretty good for 70 different markets. And we have seen in every single market, not a single exception where it has deviated over time.

33:42What are the big lessons? I'm so sorry to interrupt you in the class. What are those big lessons from those cohort data behavioral trends? Cohorts are incredibly strong. They don't change if anything to get better. With the only one exception, when you screw up, when you start not looking at the customers, or when you start missing a trend. So I mentioned logistics. So you're done a couple of mistakes, but we're not fast enough with our logistic, implementing our own delivery fleet. And then someone else comes, then of course our cohort will deteriorate, or multivirtical. Maybe we have built out a very good multivirtical offering to give further value to our customers, but we didn't do that fast enough in Colombia, as a good example, and we get disrupted by rapid.

34:27So then the cohort deteriorated big time. Or if we acquired a lot of customer based on vases, discounts, promotions, then of course, we'll also see a deterioration in cohort once we start pulling that out of the system. But if you look at where we operate, where we do things right and where we care for the customers and where the core is just the strength of the course and not coming from from vases and discounts, we have enormous amount of predictability. So we take the example of global, it was very easy for us to see how this business is going to grow over the next 10 years.

35:03And We still have many, many years of that growth trajectory. And we know how much margin we're going to make in an order. That's also very predictable for us because we set the price. So in the end, we know that the margin on the business is going to go to 10 to 13 % over time. So based on that, you can very quickly calculate your growth profit and you know your base cost, the marketing as well as the overhead that you have to have in order to run a certain size organization. So, if you take global, it's incredibly easy to see how profitable that business is going to be over the next 10 years.

35:37And for us, it was, therefore, clearly a good acquisition. For an investor, they don't see that data. The only thing they see is, where's the top line and what is the bottom line and what the growth rate is. And, of course, when we acquired global, that was a bad timing, probably. It was the end of 2021 before the whole market collapsed, where everything is about profitability. and global lost 330 million when we acquired it. So of course adding another negative 330 million getting into 2022 was not very pleasant but in the end that was painful but I think everyone start realizing how much value global is going to be worth and how much is already this worth if we extrapolate what we stand now.

36:21Do you think 2 billion was the right price? Well we paid stock. So in the end, I think effectively since our stock fell with 75 % that we didn't to loot that much. We bought it when our delivery here was more like a third of a billion. So the dilution for delivery here was more like five, six percent maybe. So I think that was an incredible acquisition. Only diluting a few percent less than a 10 percent for a business that is clearly going to outgrow the rest of the business. When you look at cohorts, what What is it that excites you? Is it like, because you could have like AOV size, average order value size being super high, twice a month I spend a lot of money, or it could be I use it every single day, but for very small things.

37:04What is it in the cohort data that you've learned shows true cohort strength? Yeah, so in the end, you want a cater for customers being able to order as often as possible and as convenient as possible. If you said the basket, the minimum basket size, such that you need to have two threads every time you order. Well, that will take away a lot of occasions for you because sometimes you're alone or you cannot afford. So we have to find ways how can we drive economics also for small baskets and make that work. However, if you do something that is not long -term sustainable, then of course the course also not going to be sustainable because the day I then and a movie from being able to do a five -year order and that's not economical obviously today.

37:45And suddenly you can order if you're for 15 euro. then you will start reducing your order behavior and therefore the course is sustainable. So whatever we do and we always have to build on sustainable economics, even if it's in the first instant, we might not have managed a business to get economics. So for example, with the statistic, it took a couple of years before we broke even per order basis and the whole quick commerce. It took us a couple of years to break even per order basis. It was not because we It was just because we hadn't optimized our own efficiencies. Therefore, you can maybe be ahead of time in terms of what you offer to the consumer, but you have to find a clear path how your long term can make sustainable.

38:30Otherwise, you should never offer you to do that order. Speaking of long term sustainable, what do you do? You mention rapping in Colombia there. What do you do when you have competitors who suddenly raise or have a lot of money? And that could impact your cohorts? The thing is that it doesn't impact our course so much and often the impact on the business may profitability is rather that you get nervous and you start spending a lot of money and you start copying what they do. But I think our learning is as long as we keep delivering good experience for our customers, keep pushing the boundaries for how we can make economics on every single order.

39:09If someone is willing to make a loss per order without that trajectory for getting profits, they might get some of the discount counters that the low value customer base might go to that competitor, but it's not sustainable. So eventually they will have to take away those vouchers, those discounts, and those customers will be good to any platform then. So I think the core is to making sure that we have a service where our good customers are loyal. That's what we see. Regardless what someone invests, we see that our customers are our exceptional loyal. You mentioned the word good there. It made me think, you know, we saw this bubble of capital going into the space.

39:47Whenever it was two to four years ago now, when you get to my age, Nicklas, the memory goes, but my question to you is, was that a good bubble ultimately that did produce advancements in logistics, consumer education, consumer awareness, or was it a bad bubble that bumped me, burned a lot of investor money, and didn't really progress the space forward? I don't think it moved industry forward that much. I think it just drove some non -sustainable behavior. Same here, if you look at the cohorts, we clearly saw a bump in the cord up. We thought that we would maybe maintain it at that bump at higher level.

40:24But it turned out to went back to the trend line. So if you have a trend line of this, it went up temporarily, but then it went back to trend line. So it really didn't move much in the industry. It just created a little bit of a bubble where we be spent on necessary money. So I think effectively in the end, Covid was not a good thing for us. Do you see door dash and do you see Uber Eats as your biggest competitors today? When you look at the capital that they have and the reserves that they have, is that the biggest threat? Not really. Coming back to the point around competition, I think it's 80 % about what we deliver and maybe 20 % of what it compared to us.

40:59And every single time when I see here we haven't grown fast enough. It was not the ghost of competition, it was because we didn't deliver a good service. We were not moving fast enough. So I think it's 80 % dust and 20 % competition. I don't think that the balance sheet matters in the end. That is not what limits any comparator spend money. It's going to be the return that is going to limit a comparator spend money. So it's going to be hard for a door dash or Uber or some of sustainably make bad investments because they can. I don't think is about balance sheet with all profitable entities, you can argue who is going to move that profitability up faster or slower.

41:41It's not going to be the balance sheet. It's probably more there. What cost can you have a good return? As we saw, get to scale in ornamentally, very quickly and incredibly successful in Turkey and then roll out across Europe and then bluntly roll back with just the same speed. What did that teach you? What should we look at and learn from that? Yeah, that comes back to the thing when you do something that is not sustainable and you get customers to order because to get 20 bucks for free of course, you're not building a sustainable business as soon as you pull that 20 bucks back You will lose a lot of customers.

42:15So it's a very expensive way of growing the same Doing a lot of discount and vouchers. It can be good to give a discount for someone who's a good customer and getting them to try But most customers who order a discount, it's over proportionally coming to very cost -sensitive customer. Customers are always looking for finding a deal. It's always going to drive a lot of fraud as well. So when you do too much of a voucher strategy, discount strategy, you are going to track the bad customer base. It's going to be expensive and it's going to drive their little value. And I don't think it tears the only one.

42:52Let's speak about our mistakes. If you take our Thailand business, we scale from a couple of thousand orders a day, up to 400 ,000 orders a day, in less than a year. This is faster than I think I've seen anyone scale a business, but it was not sustainable. The business is now back to doing way less, it's doing 25 % of that today. Was that predicated on a heavy discounting strategy? This count, yeah, you drove, it was very cheap so order food in Thailand with us. We didn't care for that customer experience enough, it was just about price. And of course when you tried to move the sustainability, most of those orders would fall off.

43:34And I would say the value of our Thailand business is not very high. It's, it's so you can scale very fast in our business. You can go to 400 ,000 daily orders in this case, but it's not worth anything unless you're being something sustainable. So when we see other comparators do that, we really don't mind that much. We know what it does over time. We saw the same in Turkey. We saw the same in a few other places. Those customers come back to us as soon as this stopped giving the varsals and discounts. Was there a market you launched where it just didn't go up? Like it was actually just pretty dead.

44:07Reception wasn't great. Yeah, it's always hard in the beginning to get that product market fit. But I don't think it's about a market. I think every market in the world will probably work with this. It's just a matter of getting that product market fit right. And secondly, is it worth while having another country, another set of regulation, another set of so a lot of markets might not make sense because it's not enough return, but I think they can all work. How do you think about how long you're willing to lose money in a new market before it turns good? I think you need to see that the fundamental of the business works.

44:46Coming back to that cohorts, are the cores good enough? Can we see enough life can value in this? And can we see that acquisition cost is getting to a place where we can actually scale it? So you need to get that to work maybe in a year or so. And if you get it to work, then of course you're going to spend money over the next couple of years because when you get it to work, you want to scale it. If you don't get it to work, well, then it's not going to cost a lot because why would invest in a business that has a bad lifetime value return. So in the end, sometimes it could be that the best market is the ones that's going to cost a lot of money for a number of years because you want to invest to grow it.

45:21So it's not necessarily that the best market will be fastest to break even. It could be that the worst market that will fast at the break even, but then they'll never get an value. How do you think about that? Never get any value with regards to emerging markets. One of the most important things I've learned is kind of pathways to liquidity and actually emerging markets are much more challenging to get liquidity from. There's just not much local liquidity. How do you think about that with emerging markets? And for us it's not such a big difference. We would rather see, do we have a return when investing this customer, regardless where they sit?

45:56And in some markets you can just scale it in a certain way. You cannot scale it fast. Coming back to the point where I tried to make before, you can then you're gonna not invest a lot of money and you're just gonna gradually scale it and in a small percentage every year and then you can run and break even for 10 years. And another that you're in the early days, I was part of starting those online pizza, it was a completed bootstrap, no investors at all. So we were breaking even almost on the first day of business, but of course, then it takes a very long time and you're not maximizing your business.

46:35If you have a good return on your customers, Well, you want to buy as many customers as you can at the price that we should have a good return and that doesn't really matter Where they sit to sit in a developer market the merger markets for us would be Well, it does because I ultimately do close back to enterprise value of the entity and actually if people discount revenue from emerging Markets then that's going to take a hit on the multiple that you enterprise value of that core entity is going to be worth Yeah, it depends a little bit if you're you're building a business to sell it Then of course you will have to look at the multiple and how markets are valuating and so on If you're building a business because you want to drive Shareholder return over time and driving cash flow and so on Then and you might not care so much what investors think is worth at a point in time You will rather care for what is the value of the business that you're building?

47:27That's the difference between price and value. We try to be focused more on driving value than driving price. Totally understand that. Final one before we move on to Europe and then Equip Fire. What's the single best M &A you've done from an ROI perspective? I think we have all of them because we bought them all very early. I look at a producer shea from Latin, what I mentioned before, that will maybe 50, 60 ,000 dollars a month. That business will be huge. Look at Taliban. It was a little bit more expensive, but we were doing 70 to 80 thousand monthly orders and now that is the 10 billion business.

48:03So that is a hundred times return or so. We have a lot of hundred times return or even a past and times return but most of them were small businesses. So of course it's a high return on a small amount. Then if you take a business like like global might have an absolute term, long term equally large. But on a multiple basis of course it's less given that it was still a larger acquisition. I have to touch on Europe before we do a quick fight. We both sit in Europe, and the world has never been so convicted in their doom around the future of Europe. How do you feel when you look at the negativity and skepticism around Europe today?

48:41There's some far -bashling that are things that we surely could have done better and that I hope that we will do better, but India and I'm an entrepreneur and an optimist. I believe we can do stuff. I believe we can build and amazing companies out of Europe. And I think there is a lot of strength in Europe as well. We are highly educated people, good infrastructure, welfare system, functioning democracy, we are a talent hub, decent balance, it and all of that. There is a lot of strength of Europe. There are also a lot of weaknesses of Europe. I hope we can address this. And if we can, I think Europe will be a amazing place for start -up and companies.

49:16What would you most like to change? Yeah, make it easier, faster to get talent into Europe, reduce some of the bureaucracy or certain regulation that can sometimes be a little bit overwhelming for a lot of companies and I speak about GDPR, sustainability reporting, paid transparency, direct accessibility act and so on. And they all make stands and have good intention, but collectively it's just a big burden on those European companies and I think a little bit unfairly that but they are not the same criteria for other companies competing in Europe. I think this is proportionally adding to European companies.

49:59So if you can do that, then... I mean, listen, I had Oscar on the show and he mentioned obviously the intense regulatory pressure that he's under from the Spanish government and it not being applied to, you know, Bluntni Ubra and foreign competitors. To what extent is Europe regulating itself into oblivion? I do think that sometimes we are hard on European companies and European companies are there is more scrutiny on us. There is a lot of regulation that is circumvented or ignored by Chinese and US companies. I do think that we have to truly level the playing field in many ways. I think a lot of US players also leverage the dominance.

50:40Yeah, we have to make sure that the US and Chinese companies cannot circumvent regulation. But we have to make sure that we are not going after European companies more than US companies US because it's easier to approach us and reach us So there are a few things that I think that we have to also work on to making a level playing field and hope that Tower Los happen. What do you say to Oscar when he faces the pressure that he's under from a national and the government is that, is it like hey dude, I'm here for you, Kumi, is it like oh shit, that's a big fine, what is one say? Generally the principle of delivery here is that we are in the details and we are in the trenches in the details so I will not step there and I'm just not being helpful and not knowing the details, so I'll go into details and the same thing I expect Oscar to be in the details.

51:32Of course, we collectively tried to find the best path forward and how we can solve it and be supportive and make it show we take the right decisions and operate in a good way. But in the end, we can only do so much in the end that I cannot blame Oscar for challenges that he is not responsible for. That has affected him, but where we have collectively taken decisions that we think are right. I've been a force to be able to take shared responsibility on those topics. Can I move into a quick fire round? So I say a short statement, you give me your immediate thoughts. Does that sound OK? I'm fantastic.

52:09Amazing. What do you believe that most around you disbelieve? I think Jen, Jen AI or the largest beneficial of AI is going to be the average company deploying it, but not necessarily the Mag 7, the ones who are building it. I think that is probably contrarium. At least if I look at the stock market, we will see they have done tremendously well, but other companies haven't. I do believe that the biggest benefit here is the leveraging AI versus tools of building. Do you feel pressure as a public company CEO to have an AI story? No, but I feel pressure of making sure that the leverage AI to get more efficient, working real hard on that.

52:50If you have a story or not, that's a little bit cosmetics. I don't care for that cosmetics so much. I care for actually leveraging and truly make our business better for it. You can buy and hold one stock from that 10 years of Undelivery Hero, which docked you at Buy and Hold. I like it to be a little bit of thinking 10 years and hold, because I think it says the right direction of what other companies that cannot be disrupted over 10 years. And I was always a big fan of Amazon and so on. I'm still a big fan of Amazon, but of course the valuation of those companies has gone up a lot, So you cannot count on multiple expansions.

53:27So the growth in those stocks will only be, or the value growth of those stocks will basically only be the growth that it can generate. That's still probably going to be a fair month, so maybe I stick with Amazon. What would you do if you knew you couldn't fail? Increase risk. How would you increase risk? Double down even more on things that are uncertain. What uncertain thing would you both like to We are a brave company that do what we believe in, so I do not think that we're holding back too much. Of course, a match before we're big believers in the whole quick -murs, grocery shopping type of thing, other verticals that we're expanding into as well, health and beauty and that's an so on.

54:05A match before I think that's easily more than 50 % of our business long term. Today is only a small portion, a small fraction. So that's something we are doubling down on, but I don't think we're too afraid of taking risk. We are willing to take risks as long as we have good data behind it. Which other public companies do you most respect in Amaya? Why them? There are many. You have Mark Zuckerberg and for having the bravery that he has had over the years, has been criticized many times, but is stood by his beliefs. Janssen, of course, with Anvidea, has been taking bold decision and been right many times.

54:44When will drones take over deliveries? It already reached a point where you can actually make it work economically. In some places, regulation is also a part of it. It will take time to scale it, but over time, around 25 % of deliveries are so good to be done by drones, but it might be 10 years something to actually build out that network to be there. So we are moving in that direction, but it's going to take a long time. I would say robotics will be faster and probably be able to cover a larger portion of business. What do you mean it'll be able to cover a large portion? It does pick and pack or it does delivery?

55:19What is that? Where do they own that segment? Yeah, so of course the challenge with drones is that it's hard to do in the city center of cities because of noise and regulation and it plays to land on and take off from that it's a little bit harder to do that in city centers and so on. and the robotics you can do in small cities, big cities, city centers, you can do it everywhere. It's a little bit slower than drones. So if you look at the Navarice drone delivery, it's happening like three minutes plus loading off loading. Robots, we cannot do the shortest way. They have to actually take the road, they have to wait for stop sign and so on.

56:03And they cannot drive in the same pace as you have a drone. So they're slower. but they can get you almost anywhere. That would probably be large much faster. Does money make you happy? No, I've never been thinking about it. I think having purpose and being in a team, having shared experience that makes me happy. I've never been thinking about it really. What's the secret to a happy marriage?

56:32conversation, honesty, understanding, forgiveness, try to take your ego out and win every discussion and every argument. This is probably a good start. And also try to see from every perspective, and I think there's a challenge to have overall that we have our point of view and we are not the standing enough that other people might have a different point of view and both being okay. When we look at the next 10 years, final one, what are you most excited for? Like for me with AI, you know, seeing the drug discoveries that will come for like MS suffers, my mother's got MS is immensely exciting. What are you most excited for when you look forward over the next decade?

57:10For me is is even more exciting than things where I can drive things forward and of course all AI space will make us more efficient, will make us better, will will dramatically, so I'm very excited to see that, that adding out. Nicklas isn't, this has been so much fun. I'm sorry for going so off -schedule with some of those questions, but this was fantastic, so thank you so much. Thank you so much, and thanks for a fantastic podcast. I mean, that was a really special show for me to do. Nicklas is such a hero of the European ecosystem and delivery hero has paved the way for so many others. huge thanks to Nicklas for giving up the time and if you want to watch more you can find it on YouTube by searching for 20VC.

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