20VC: Windsurf x Google x Cognition: Full Breakdown: Who Made Money, Who Did Not | Lovable vs Replit: Will These Be $100BN Businesses | Why Elon Could Beat Sam Altman with the New Grok | Why Every S&P 500 Company Will Buy Bitcoin?

24:41There's kind of a good warm funny feeling and everyone recognizes I mean it's basically like a big science saying shit we are still very, very smart people because we just bought all the rest of it for half nothing. Not only that, but they get good people to run points. I mean, they're saying they're accelerating stock for people, but in one sense, that's amazing and righteous and good. On the other hand, you're getting accelerated stock in a privately held company. I don't know how much the needle mover it is, but stupendously good optics plus 82 million of revenue plus 100 million in cash plus great engine.

25:11They win. There's not anyone questioning that is just not paying attention. Is it all the best deal ever because off to 82 million revenue and a hundred in cash you're basically paying 220 for great people and getting their anthropic license their direct pathway to Anthropic back yet now they're competing with Claudio but they got it back overnight over the weekend if you want to be in the Space the president of cognition said he got a DM on Friday night and did the deal in 15 minutes it right? I mean that's the that's your answer you're comment it's a great deal which is not to say it'll still work I mean because remember we had the number two in the space rightly or wrong me, but saying it's getting hard on you to get out.

25:46And now the remaining assets are still in the space. So if it turns out that it's hard for anyone except the model companies that may be cursed or to make money, then there's no magic pixie dust that gets them out of this market. But if you're going to compete in the market, it's a damn side easier to deal with anyone in a revenue or another hundred million bucks. So it's a great epic deal, which is not to say they're still going to make it as an independent but if this does work out for them, they can all do Goldman Sachs M &A because they won here. What do you think cognitions revenue was at pre this?

26:17I'm guessing eight. Eight of the 82. Everyone's so braggie about their revenue on social media, in AI, if you're not braggie, I'm assuming it's sub 10. Maybe not that, but let's just say my sense of win, so it would be a meaningful addition to the revenue line. I know you could spend the whole show on it and Harry, you're the boss. I'm still a little bit confused, though, and maybe it doesn't matter to this pastor. I'm a little bit confused on why the OpenAIDL fell apart because Microsoft would inherit their IP. I have get it, like I kind of have get it, but it was an issue going in, right? It's an ambiguity in the OpenAIDL structure.

26:53What, it doesn't make sense to me that Varun would say, I'm pulling out of a $3 billion deal because someone may have our IP. Why would you care if you're a Windsor of that much? The one thing I would say on that, I interviewed Varun, and he made it very clear to me in other conversations that he was very excited to make this deal happen. And he was very much looking forward to being part of OpenAI and he believed that a platform play with their distribution was the winning strategy. Yeah, so he didn't pull out of this because of the Microsoft license. It wasn't his idea, right? Jason, you've got, I've been trying to figure this out too because there's two separate threads.

27:26You have one thread is it's all about the micros, but then tracing that out, it just to help people on set. The concept here is that Microsoft's license with OpenAI means they have access to all OpenAI's technology. To the extent that WinSurf was acquired by OpenAI, they would be subject to that license. Then Microsoft would have access to that technology. Obviously, Microsoft would GitHub has a competitor product. That's the stepping back framing. The story is that they ask Microsoft to waive that term. Microsoft said, no, because they're negotiating a bigger deal with OpenAI now and why give up your points of leverage.

28:03But Jason, you're right. The question is, who would have cared about that? I mean, it's possible that someone who was selling that company for $3 billion to OpenAI relies that this would happen and felt caught bad about it and decided to walk away from the deal for that reason. I don't think so. That feels weird to me, especially when you look away, especially when you didn't have a plan B and your plan B was talking to Google on Friday night. It doesn't feel like it. That means it must be something else at least as well. You've got to assume there might had been some FTC push back there because OpenAI announced the real acquisition, unlike Google, which did these kind of crazy structures.

28:38So it may well be there was some preliminary FTC inquires. They decided it's going to take too long. I don't know. Was the deal pending on the restructuring of OpenAI to a for -profit? In other words, with the investors saying, I don't want to close until the restructuring start. But I agree. I mean, you're coming, Harry, very helpful, is that if I was a young, smart, wildly talented founder at the margin, I prefer to sell to open AI for $3 billion and get praise then to Google at $2 .6 billion and get blame. Call me strange. So I think it's not the preferred outcome. So something went wrong and the Microsoft reason on its own feels a little weird.

29:13So interestingly, the other lesson from that is it's just so funny. All these weird, hinky crazy structures come and bite you in the ass. They're not for profit thing. The crazy license with Microsoft that has open ended terms and give Microsoft a lot of leverage to Vito things. It would all be so much simpler if everyone here was a standard C -Corp and if the FTC would get back to being sensible because all this entire podcast is basically the FTC fucked up normal business operations and now we've got to do weird shit podcast. I do want to talk about Sam Orton's tweet this week where he said, we plan to launch our open weight model next week.

29:49We are delaying it. We need time to run additional safety tests and review high -risk areas, we're not sure yet how long it will take us. How did you read this news on the delay and that additional requirement for reviews on safety? First of all, you know, you'd hint. I didn't read it as, oh my god, we're not getting things done because we've lost so many people to matter. I mean, maybe that's the thing, but I doubt it. It's not clear to me stepping back is the trend to open source, open weight models going up or down here. If you think about it, there's been a lot of small p -politics around which is the right thing.

30:23I think you're seeing Facebook slash meta have a change of heart there on the new team led by Alex Wang in what they call it the super intelligence group. Doing a little bit of the maybe we won't be open source, maybe we won't reach Lama, really Slamma. So it may be that a lot of this is a whole bunch of people who made promises in the early days when open source was the thing to get these products out the door and now we're in the land of let's be honest cold hard cash and it may be getting an open source virtually a product out there to compete with you is not anyone's number one priority. The one thing I would say is Alex is very anti -China and very scared of CCP infringement.

31:04I would be very surprised if he was more leaning towards open than closed given his stance on China. If you're in the quadrant of patriotic and greedy, which lets me fight most of that core hit people are, you ain't going to be releasing any open source models right now because it's a value destroyer from an economics perspective and you have the whole CCP overlay on top. So I don't know if this is the beginning of the quiet deprecation of that initiative. First of all, I think it's not, I wonder if it's a priority. I mean, I folks who know more of me will laugh at me for saying this. I'm saying I don't know how big a priority could possibly be at Madda at its revenue scale, right?

31:42I don't know how big a priority. The other thing I will say, you know, until I started vibe coding, like 80 hours in the last week, I didn't know how seriously to take risk stuff. And I'm still not sure I'm an expert, but when I'm watching Replic overwrite my code on its own, without asking me all weekend long, I am worried about safety, but I'm going down this razzhole, then I'm reading an anthropic paper talking about how they don't know how to I control a lot of this stuff. I'm more sympathetic and anthropic as this whole thing about reward hacking and how even anthropic makes stuff up to achieve its reward.

32:17And I'm living this vibe hacking over the weekend where my AI is lying to me all weekend long and Repplet it is lying to me. It is lying to me. And it finally admitted it lied on purpose. And we couldn't solve this one bug guys. So at Sunday after like 18 hours, then what Repplet just did is it deleted my entire database and made up names. And then the app worked great. Like it was amazing. And then I said to Reppy, we call him Reppy. I said, I know there's no such company as Salesforce 2 .0. I know this company doesn't, and then it found this perfect person from upspot. There's VPSales that I go into LinkedIn.

32:48She doesn't exist. And no one in this database of 4 ,000 people existed. I never asked Reppy to do it. I told Reppy to lock it down. I told Reppy to have version control on my database. So my meta point is, you know, the safety stuff, like it's more visceral to me after a weekend of vibe hacking, right? I never asked it to do this. I never asked it and it did it on its own. You can call it reward hacking You can call whatever I wanted but explicitly told it 11 times in all caps stop doing this never do it again So I am a little worried about safety now And I always think the safety word is overlaid loaded because it can range from You know the hyperbolic which I think is totally be asked you know They're gonna make paper clips and take over the world to safety in the sense of this thing non -deterministically overwrites your entire database because it says it can do something better.

33:34And I think the former safety discussion is outside my pay grid and I think it's BS. But you exactly write JSON the latter. And then in the middle you have, and you will talk about in a second, the Grop release where amazing achievement. But then you have all the weirdness of the stuff it says. And what it says is releasing a model like this without significant work post training has a reputational risk at least. And therefore there's a cost of release on this model. So to your point, Jason, you may be sitting there going, I'm going to release something in open source that hasn't been fully valid because it's the 10th project on our list of to -dos.

34:07And let's examine the upside is people say, yeah, you did open source. And the downside is you release something, it goes a little weird. It says mean things. It talks about mechahitler. And now you look like an ass. Why would you matter? You're exactly right. I would over, I would over, or someone uses it for coding. And it's not been fully trained and it just kind of does weird stuff and people's head sort. And it's some level. I mean, none of it's okay. But if you had to look at the leaders, Elon Musk can get away with this the most. Just because of who he is. Like, it's unacceptable to have a race to release a racist model to the like, there's this is an unacceptable of a get, but Sam Altman's gonna be fried and Thropic's gonna be fried the most because they're supposed to be the good guys, right?

34:44Elon can say, whoops. Did you see what? Did you see all I just did the new geofencing for my Tesla? It's just me, sorry guys. We're fixing this stuff. I think he can push the envelope the most and maybe Sam Altman's in the box the most. He also probably has to be the most conservative, right? But before we move to GROC, I'm just intrigued that. Jason, you said about the AC hours of vibe coding. Both of your response times were significantly longer this weekend because you were vibe coding, not emailing me. What are other big takeaways for you from vibe coding as you have done in the last week?

35:15I'll give you a tactical and a strategic takeaway. OK? The tactical one is just today, just today, as we record this. The idea that the role your own initiative, I think is the dumbest thing I've seen in SAS in my career. Okay? I am not saying you can't make a dog walking app on lovable or replete your own that kind of works, that kind of sort of works with the basic upload and whatever. Yes. But this I, there's so many charlatans on X and LinkedIn that are like, SAS is dead because over the weekend I rolled my own notion HubSpot, my whole entire stack at like, Jira, I just did it over the weekend and I only pay $20 a month.

35:51Okay, This is at the edge of fraud. One, I've already burned $600 in credits in six days to get 10 % of the way there. You can't do it for 20 bucks a month. Two, none of these things are commercial grade. I've talked to many folks on DM and behind, they all admit 99 .9 % of the apps on loveable, replet, editor are not commercial grade. That's not necessarily a bad thing. One, roll your own is the dumbest thing in the world. The second thing I'm going to say is one of the most annoying things about AI, but I'm gonna answer your question anyway. It's so close, man. It's so f and close. And when I say this to a lot of folks that are not deep in AI, they're like, you always say that, Jason.

36:28You always say, the AI AE is almost there. The AI marketing manager is almost the AI, but our AI SDR actually is already there. Our A SDR rocks, okay, it's already there. But I can tell you, I can see how, I'm 80 % of the way there to a commercial grade app in less than a week, but I may never get to 100. But man, if we just make these guardrails work a little bit better, if the QA works a little bit better, and if it stops overriding my goddamn database, I don't know why we would need like really mediocre dev shops or engineers potentially. We need more great engineers, but man, it could be crazy by the end of the year.

37:01It could be off the charts crazy. So Harry, if I were you, I might invest in one of these guys. Jason, I'm gonna put it to you very directly. Would you invest in Lovable at a $2 billion price? Yeah, I would. I would. I will tell you, I have a lot of nuance learnings from the weekend over how permanent this revenue is. I have a lot of thoughts on it. But I'm more interested in the trend like where I see it going So I think I would if I could invest in replete or lovable at two billion compared to wind surf It seems like a much better deal. I think it seems cheap Push him that I want to ask why that is because let me just place something back And I could do I look in the board development tools market place These these companies occupy two different spots and board is speaking the lovable We're put are for the vibe quarter for you me a non -coater trying to build something with some technical knowledge but where you're doing it at the level of English and describing what you want.

37:50And then the curses and wind surfers are for professional developers who know what they're doing, who can use this tool to augment what they do, who will actually review the Python, review the code base, and then deploy it. So they're different segments. I don't think that's entirely true, but I think there's... It's not that the original was in the... I agree. It's not entirely true, but at a high level. I want to know what the question is. What I have certainly now I get it, okay? I admit talking about it versus doing it or not the same thing. There is a huge number of developers. That today are we will get a product a project and they're downsides of this okay crappy codes Begety code they'll get a project to a certain point and then they'll just roll it into cursor or wherever they want and they will finish it for real I can't tell you how many CTOs I talked over the weekend.

38:31They say I don't love the code I get out of loveable a rep lit But this is what I do I get it to 60 to 70 % and then I roll it in okay, and so there's an overlap and these circles of these two But the reason I think that the market is so big to Harry's point is because the mark I think if Repplet and lovable keep keep making developers happy and they make dog walker apps people happy the Tam really is much bigger than cursor. It's much bigger than cursor when serve It could be like 50 or 100 times bigger. That's why I'll do the deal with you Harry If there's any room left just let me know I'm gonna push on that and again I don't have a living if they're doing this round and there's any room I would put in a few nickels even a small supporting check.

39:13By definition, there are more non -developers and developers. So yeah, some level it's tried to say the lovable one. And we've never tapped into those dollars ever, right? Yeah, sorry. My apologies. A hundred percent of developers are going to buy a tool like cursor, like wizard, because that's how development is done now. Like it. Yeah, a hundred percent. And they have budget. Can a hundred percent of designers will use Figma? A hundred percent of that is your Figma. And the real question is how big and how sustaining is this movement of non -developer or anybody who went an interesting point about the developer who starts a lovable and transitions the cursor.

39:48That's actually a good point and that does give a little durability to the market. But it's not clear to me that you will have 10X or 100X, the number of people who will continuously pay a subscription. It's a fair criticism. And I could be one to be true. You know, every developer right now that is remotely cutting edge has a cursor subscription or similar, 100%, even my son has one, okay? And every designer is gonna have creative cloud and Figma, okay, 100%. You can't do your job without these tools, right? And I could posit, and it's been, I could be wrong in a sense of, I think you actually cited a part of the market that I should have been obviously it wasn't, it's that kind of technical person who's not a full on developer.

40:26As you say, that Figma person, maybe they don't just wanna do a mockup, maybe they wanna show a rough, This is what it's meant to look like so that people who are kind of professionally developing but not full -time Is a much better market than worries at home What a why does it want to do that but he's gonna use loveable. No, he ain't not like tried to unfailed What for me I would never use something like figm again if Reppler lovable had it one of the fastest growing segments in use cases Is actually alternative functions other than developing with imb to be which is sales and marketing teams using it to create incredible planning pages for new prospects.

40:58I totally agree with that. They say web content web pages. Now the question that Jason is like, the square space meet that need. It's just not interesting. It's not disrupt like I'm with you, Harry, and you'd know the data better than me. And if that's half the 100 million repilate and lovelable each have, then that's a good learning for me. But I don't view that as disruptive. There's a lot of great marketing sales tools already that can build planning pages. And then they're already integrated with your data and workflow. So I'm not impressed with that. But that's just me. Like if that's 100 million of revenue, it's cool.

41:26The question is, two questions go together. One is, what is this? Is the more generalizable use case? Like, if you're using one of the specialist tools to build landing pages, you're limited in what you can do by what they allow you to do. They've made the editorial choices. Obviously, the advantage of a development tool is you can decide for yourself. But as you discovered over the weekend, and I did, to a much lesser degree, in return for that freedom of choice, it's frickin hard. And to your point, Jason, if they can make that hard tax lower quickly enough, that yeah, you have something interesting, but you're not gonna do it.

41:57If it's still this hard a year from now to do it, you're probably not gonna sign up to put through the brain death of building party website on this if there's a easier solution. Well, there's just in general, it's under discussed, and I'll give you an example from yesterday from a scale portfolio, CMO, but there's an orchestration tax in these tools. The orchestration tax is really high. I mean, Harry lost touch with me over the weekend because I was lost vibe coding and replete, okay? What if I had four of these apps that I was orchestrating? And like Amelia on our team spends maybe 10 hours a week in our AISDR and it is great But we can't do 10 of these can we like that's why most of our life we need off the shelf solutions That don't need to be that don't have this orchestration overhead and and literally just yesterday We're talking with the CMO of a 300 million plus air a company and asking her what she was doing She's like I've been five coding.

42:43She's like what do you vibe code? He's like I need to build better tools to support my sales team She's like I don't have one more minute like this is all the time I have So this orchestration, like we think we can click these buttons and there's no work, but I'm budgeting $100 a day for Repplet Forever. That's, and money and time to get this app working. It's not much for a commercial app, is it? This is not click a button and walk away. This is all the time and I have to be thinking about it every day. We can't have too many of these in our lives. Now this guy looks at it as pleasingly enough, $100 a day for five business days is 25 grand to 30 grand a year, which is about the low end of a typical SaaS mid market app.

43:22If you think about it, Jason, all the deals you've done was like, yeah, it's 30 grand a year for the subscription. That's actually about the same number, which does make you wonder. The other cow I just want to make back to the thing. It is just worth comparing the two discussions we had. We decided, in the cursor wind surf case, actually, we didn't decide, who the fuck are we? The CEO of the number two player in the independent DevTool space decided it was too late. He had to get an acquisition done, because you couldn't build an independent company there and 2 .6 billion was a great price and he's done because that market was getting too competitive and that's a clear established market.

43:56It's interesting to reflect on that conclusion and then look at the VideCourt market, where there's three or four companies all raising a very high prices with incredible traction just like the developer tools guys had 12 months ago. It's hard to imagine the world where there's only one or two developer tools for professional users and six or eight invite quaditons? That just doesn't feel one of those cases as well. And makes you pause and think, are there going to be? Why did I write a $12 million check into Lovelable? I think very much in the same way that ChatGPT owns the consumer brand for that front -end OS for the modern consumer.

44:29I think Lovelable's reached escape velocity with the consumer brand in this space. And I think that compounds very, very quickly. I think it's a good thesis, right? I don't know Lovelable's bigger than Repplet, so just there may be two that are the same size, right? But putting aside the bias as an investor, Okay, they're both good ones. Okay, let's call them both good ones, okay? Well, I guess my other quick learning, which is how important brand is, as you get closer, because listen, a bunch of folks are like, Lemkin, why do you use Repplet? Like, they're like, well, I use V0 plus this, plus that, and then I export to Cloud Code, and then I re -import to cursor, and then I host, and I'm like, okay, I'll take, there's two reasons I picked Repplet.

45:05Okay, one, I wanted to go end -and, I wanted to go from ideation to commercial production, one app, okay? And so, I might be wrong about both, but to my knowledge only, Repplet and Loveable can really do it. And I'm gonna get flamed, okay? But I wanna do everything. I don't wanna leave it. I don't wanna, I wanna port some code over that's better in curse. I wanted to go all, I wanted to stay locked in the constraints of one environment without a developer. Okay, that was the social experiment, okay? And then I just asked people, and then I'm like, okay, now I'm stuck to the brand. So there's no way I'm gonna use something for all the time I'm gonna put in that just launched on a product hunt.

45:37It ain't gonna happen, right? And so there's only like two leaders, Replicate and lovable, okay? So I'm in the eight, so there are parts of my life where I'm in the 1%, there's parts of my life where I'm in the 20. Here I'm in the 80, dude. I'm not gonna take any risk. Tell me which is the best. And most people came to the conclusion, if you want more flexibility, use lovable, okay? And we already use lovable at Saster, don't hear wrong. If you want the easiest way to go and to end, use Replic, and here's my point for my Ramley story. That's how I made my decision. That's it. Did I try them side by side for this use case?

46:08No, did I spend weeks doing it? And then they're like, well, why don't you switch this? I'm like, I'm already, I made a choice between two vendors and I'm done, man. So that's why the investment hair is vestibule's good. I think these brands are gonna lock you in. What you're basically saying is this, if it's gonna be a big ass winner in this space, the number one thing they need to have at this stage is consumer brand recognition, because it's not a considered purchase. It's a try, it's a find the product as quickly as possible. and therefore the guys in motion today stand the best chances thing.

46:39It's considered, it's just how much, how well can a non -technical resource consider it? Like that's the, it's not that it's not considered, it's just, I can't always spend so much time. How can I truly evaluate this in an hour or five minutes? I can't. I have to guess what it's going to look like in a month. When you ask chat GBT, it says lovable. Now you're actually making a very good argument for this whole category of companies that are helping B2B companies show up and shout GPT, you know, Jewel. We just did one in Germany, peak. 200K when we did it is now at a million, like three weeks, but fucking nuts, the customer adoption that.

47:18One of the fastest polls that I've seen in terms of consumer demand or customer demand. Jason, I just want both of your perspectives on this before we move on to Grock, because it's important. Everyone goes, er, but they're not durable revenues. They're unsustainable. how have your thoughts changed or stayed the same? And what do you think about the durability and strength of these revenues? I think they're gonna get more durable is my learning, but I didn't know before this weekend, okay? If I can actually get my app into production, commercial grade app, unless I have huge issues, I will pay and subscribe forever.

47:50Okay, if I get it over the line, if I get it over the line, okay, whether I pay 200 bucks a month to replate or lovable or I pay 3000, it doesn't matter, like I'm locked in forever, And I'm going to keep iterating and iterating and expand. Like, if it works, I get it. If I hired a team of six developers, you can export the code. It's in Get and Get Hub, all right? They can do what they want. But I'm pretty locked in as like a prosumer non -developer shop, right? I'm locked in. Now, what's clear? Folks that think they're going to vibe code their own notion an hour, they churn. So I bet if we took Repplet and Lovable and we, and I wish more founders would do this.

48:26It drives me nuts when I don't do it. Segment your churn. I don't just want your headline number. I don't care today. I'm investing. I want to see you segment it If you have one cohort that has insane retention and like this low end part is churning 4 % a month I get it. It's okay. I get there should be segments of replete and lovable that are churning like 10 or 20 % a month Like like a low end consumer app like on revenue cat or hair and I investors. They power 40 % of mobile subscription apps I think the average app across all mobile paid apps is like 6 % a month churn 6 % okay? This is consumer.

48:58They try it. They it doesn't work. They don't they don't lose the weight. They don't stop drinking They churn okay, and so that's gonna happen for a rep little lovable But what I didn't get is if this works my stickiness is gonna be super high in my NRR I don't know how you calculate it But I've already gone from 20 bucks a month to $800 a month in one month if I stay it's pretty good NRR right the VCs Will like it that's why I like your investment and I like both his investments because I think the metrics will it will get better over the next 12 months not worse. I think they will improve. Agreed.

49:28There's two different things that want Jason true out. First of all, in the end of the price space, Sharon's going to get better because out of the gate, people are trying stuff and by definition, they're going to Charlotte. I remember back in 1999, 2001, 2002, Salesforce had a Sharon issue. Early on, remember, the early adopters, the people who are quick to try, you are quick to leave you and the people who make a long considered purchase stay with you a long time. And they happens in that order. Out of the gate, you get the Tires. A lot of the Tires move on, provided enough of them stick, you build your business, and then over time as you become a more established product, you go up market, and you get the boring people who are slower to commit to you, but once they commit a dare for 10 years.

50:07So it's just the natural progression. So at one level, this isn't surprising. I will say what is surprising is the amount of upfront churn you see is probably higher than early SaaS. In other words, because it's the Jason phenomenon of it feels like it's going to work, and you get 80 % of the way there and then you have this disappointment. So I do believe, in my view, one of the key tells in the next 24 months on all these enterprise AI companies is going to be the percentage of people that stick after they've gone through the innovation cycle, after they've gone through that we got to try AI and then they'll ask themselves the hard question, is it delivering value?

50:46Do we get an ROI from it? So I think once we're true that kind of not whole I think about by 25 26 26 27 Sorry the math of predicting the growth will be much easier right now There are companies that have extraordinary high growth rate But where the churn is just too high and it's just not delivering value and before God have enough You know you see even your portfolio same outside it was always going to be high no matter what there was no world in which it was going to be like 20 the 20 year of SaaS because everyone is clearly trying shit here But I think a lot of my focus with my companies is on a set to one you entire Let me tell you the acid value of this company is the 20 or 30 customers that you have now And your ability to make them successful if you can make two -thirds of them successful Even if you have 30 % churn and you can add more customers like them you have a business And if you can only make 20 % of them Successful and the others turn your debt when I'm checking in my companies are Are your customers making money off your software?

51:48Are they happy with yourself? Is it doing what they want? Is the number one thing? This is where the money's gonna be made or lost in the next two years. Because we all like to try shit. I wish I had all the non -sony -blowny numbers in a spreadsheet, all it's fit. I would bet that, you know, cursors retention has always been higher than lovable as a replettes. For the point you made, it's a different type of experimentation for a developer to commit. It's funny when I started sharing my bills on Replet on X. It was funny the feedback I got. Some folks are like, Jason, do you realize what you can get for 500 bucks a month is insane value, right?

52:21There's that category of people. Other folks are like, do you know what, I spent on my outsource development team in my country? Like this is this is the biggest ripoff I've ever seen, right? And other folks were like, for 500 bucks you're getting less than you get for 100 bucks from Claude, right? So there's very different ways to view this. But if you're deep in cursor, like you're gonna stick with your development environment, right? So the churn should be higher, right? at least for some segments, it should be much higher. And the churn is higher. I've obviously seen the numbers. It's better than I thought, but it does land more to consumer than it does traditional B2B and it is higher.

52:54So you got a, but you got a segment to, as an investor, I need to segment it to have an opinion. I'm not initially shocked by high churn, as long as you have a large enough cohort that is growing that has positive, that is net negative churn, that has positive revenue retention, that I'm cool with the low end guys, right? Yeah, you churn from a group of customers even absent to say I from 10 ,000 sign up customers should be dramatically different Then you're churned from five considered purchase enterprise buyers. So yeah churn even independent of this AI trend You exactly why that norms on churn very enterprise versus SMB versus pro -sumer versus consumer you exactly right and then I got I had an Investment where a COO came in who was out of the blue.

53:35He was you know was under the gun, made, improved the company. And he was told to increase, uh, to cut churn. So what do you think he did immediately? How do you think he did it in 30 days? He reduced churn. He stopped taking on the customers. Yeah, he stopped taking all the small customers. He banned them. Now revenue stopped growing. But he hit his capey. Hooray. Who does he, he, he, he, he stopped. He cut churn in half in 30 days. No, it, it, it sounds like stupid, but I can totally see it happening because you know, you get this. Oh, I don't like, The real question is, you've got to be able to look at that set of customers and say, yes, there's a churn, but the month to churn is much lower and here's a quarter of a year.

54:12If the overall math works, it's fine. But yes, you have to have a mental model and a mental model has to vary by the kind of deal you're doing. So yeah, I think the hard thing is just in time that you say mental models. I have never in my investing career seen a company go from zero to a hundred million and seven months personally. Like, it breaks all the mental models, which is why it's also why I did the deal. because if it does break all the mantle models and the market expansion is as big as it could be, fuck it, we're in this business for companies like this. If you're not doing this and you have the chance and it's 120, you shouldn't be doing this business.

54:45As weird as it sounds, some of these deals almost seem too cheap. If you look at the crappy that multiples we see for some startups, right? Undifferentiated company raising it 300 pre with less than a million revenue, So folks doing 100x20, 300 ARR deals. And then you see what is Windsor selling for? 20x revenue, loveables raising at 20, cursor raising at 20, 20, let's bid 25 or already, let's out bid them. Let's do, Jason, when I did it last round, I love it, it was 200 million price and I did it at a 4 million in revenue. By the time the deal was closed, it was at 19 million in revenue. So, so the air, my point is the air multiples compared to public, comps, yeah, they're high, But compared to a lot of like seed and a start -ups, they seem like bargains.

55:30Do you disagree, Rory? No, I don't actually because what you're saying is put it another way. It's very, again, we said this before, whenever you're using revenue multiples that don't take into account growth rates, you're being an idiot. And the other thing is, until your point how exponential growth rates are even harder to get your head around, you know, when you start, when things grow that quickly, and if they continue growing, almost any price makes sense. to only get the argument. But then it is worth pointing out and then going back to our first discussion when they slow, when you've paid that high price on the assumption of continued growth and they slow down, it's just brutal and you gotta get out.

56:06No, you just move them to a different page on the website. You just have lovable, move it over. Dear lovable, move this investment to other investment tab. Yeah, other. Put great out image of partner that no longer exists at the fund at attribute investment to him. Thank you, I would remind you. with so much EP Jason, we don't get to do that to you and to do dead. Okay, well you just make up someone that used to work there. Okay boys, we're gonna do GROC. This was insane. The benchmark performance was incredible to see a GROC destroys competition on humanity's last exam. GROC 4 have a 44 .4%, GROC 438 .6%.

56:44The next closest competitor for reference for people was 26 .9%. What did you make of this insane outcome level from GROC in such a short two -year window. I think it's very sobering for everyone else. I thought it's a significant and important point, right? Because we've talked in the past how if you look at people's willingness to value or start -ups at very high valuations, it's all about the idea that they're one of the few people who was part of the OpenAI and Tropic, we know we can deliver a trained model quarter -e of people. and it's been very much a small group of people, which is why they've all been paid a hundred million bucks.

57:23Right? GROC in two years from a standing start has gone to shipping. I'm going to come back to the benchmarks in a second, but a broadly comparable chat GPT type model with a slightly different vibe, they did it. It's a huge, huge achievement. And the fact that it's done makes you wonder about how you think about the valuations of some of these other companies. And maybe it's not as... Maybe the knowledge has disseminated out just a little further. So I went in and did some work a couple of things. One is you check out the team at GROC, right? You just ask who the engineer and it's exactly what you expect is yeah, it was been around.

57:57He was founder of OpenAI. Let's not remember. So it was early, deep -mind people. It was some early people for some of the other key places. So it was not the headline people who want the attention paper, but you know, one or two levels down really competent people. And what the a half for me is this, we're committed clear leadership, which for all false the unprovides and a couple billion dollars worth of GPU which see prior comment. The next level down people know how to do this too. The knowledge is disseminating and it will continue to disseminate from here. So that was my first big aha. They have shipped.

58:29They're the first folks that I didn't think of as part of the initial golden circle who have shipped the broadly comparable thing that feels when you interact with it like I get this is chat GPT if it was vibed up. A huge deal a huge quote. And then the second I just got to say it how I'm sorry about this. I just got to say I was experimenting on Glock and using it Right trying to get it to say all the mean things and if clearly stopped it But the whole tone of it is very out there in your face Well, urgent. I mean, I was just doing my work on it for preparation for the podcast And I was trying to think where have I heard that before he sounds just like you Glock sounds just like Harry's like hey legend Let's get going here.

59:09It's literally like talking to Harry It's what Jason used to try trust me. Yeah, type put upload the contents and say talk to me about this Preparation my podcast and it comes on and it's kind of that's just so freaking amazing these guys did this It's so unfiltered. It's so not like boring old chat GPT or goody Tushu's on traffic. It's just like Harry We should call it down thing Harry. It's great There's a mini mini Elon partnered together. We'd been friends for many years Moving the management learning, maybe they're busy the first 50 by a 20 BC interviews. And it's great, huge craft. And you're coming in, I can't comment to the benchmarks because I can comment on this feels comparable to the other two or three model providers on the advanced benchmarking.

59:55I mean, I've read some of the stuff that they've published and then other people. There's a lot of gamesmanship, but I don't think that matters. What does matter is they've shipped if they could deliver the business side of it, which is a big TBD, they could deliver a chat GPT -like experience. That would feel pretty much comparable out of the gate right now. So at that level they won. I think they could win. I was wrong. When Groc launched, I thought it was a spy -dap. I thought it was a spy -dap and very little more. I thought, listen, he founded OPEC, co -founded OpenAI. Clearly, he understands AI from Tesla at a fundamental level that other folks don't.

1:00:26Clearly, the dude can recruit. He recruited Iliya to OpenAI. The guy can recruit. He knows talent. But I thought it was a spy -dap. I thought all of X was I thought he bought it at a spite. I thought payments were spied out of PayPal. And I thought GROC was just to dig that knife right into Sam Altman. But if you step back for a minute, he's shown that if you know what you're doing and you buy the GPUs and you assemble an S to your team, whatever this data exactly means, whether it's pulled ahead or not, you can fucking catch up. And he has access to not unlimited capital, but at the edge of unlimited capital.

1:00:59He does not have the Microsoft headache. He does not have the baggage that anthropic has and he has an infinite horizon and the energy that we have never seen outside of Iron Man. So I honestly went, in the last release, I went from Spide app to this is such a fluid space, you could see him pulling ahead of everybody in 12 months. It's very, it's very plausible. He has none of the baggage of everybody else. And you can get away with crap, like blowing up rockets or racist things, roll it back and it's okay. And the other guys can't get away with it. Well, that brings into question then, which the net is point, which is like there's reportedly a raise going now at $200 billion valuation, the third funding round in two to three months.

1:01:40If that were the case, the combination of GROC and X's social network at $200 billion, comparative to open AI, would actually be a very fair and good deal to do. I wouldn't, to be clear, I gave a hundred percent credit for the technical achievement. There was a technical bar to be cleared, and he's cleared it brilliantly. I did not agree with what Jason said. It's not clear to me from that that it gives you anything commercially. In other words, I don't know if they can build as the third or fourth Well now I mean and this is what we may be looking at the over investment stage of this game in the sense that you have Open AI you have on traffic you have Google.

1:02:18I think that's fair. Let's say you have matter at best I mean even you know in mr. I leave you know in China your fifth or you're the fifth or six model provider, right? That sounds like the airline business. High fixed costs, six cost, will they be just because they completed the astonishingly hard technical task far better than anyone else did? It doesn't mean they get to build a business here. You can't will things into being at the business level. I mean, I think... Are you sure? We'll see. I think the best founders do will things into existence. That'd be my one challenge. All the best founders, I know will it into existence, right?

1:02:51Philosophically, I think you can will things into being if the... I think you can will yourself to be the winner if something is doable. If there's not room in the market for the sixth player, no amount of willing and can make it happen. So the question is, what's the case for a whole bunch of people who have, as you remember what you said about early winners? I've signed up for Chachi PT. I've signed up for my Chachi PT subscription. I've signed for a couple of others. Am I going to go and sign up for the GROC subscription too? I mean, it's funny and I like the interaction, but is it going to become my go -to destination?

1:03:20Right? I don't know. So if it has your ex data integrated and it's the only platform to have all tweets integrated, for me that would be enough, especially when I... And let's just talk about that. And for the 10 % of the world that likes Twitter and then actually cares about this, things that would be great. But the truth is, Twitter has always been a minority sport. And I've enjoyed it because I like the minority game. But you know, yeah, 20X the number of people want to like share shit on Facebook as want to talk politics on Twitter. Congratulations, you have your niche market to the extent you have an alienated, but it's not just a mass market.

1:03:53There's evidence that Twitter is doing better. I don't think there's evidence that it is. I don't think it can ever be anything other than what it is, which is the place you go for news, for politics, for arguments, and the dirty little secret, most people want to look at pictures and just share a share on Facebook. So I don't think it will be huge. I think they get that business. I think they integrate Gwark and Twitter. I think it's great. I like it. I'm enjoying it. There's a lot they can do. But I just can't conceive the steady drum beat of taking over tens and hundreds of millions of consumers who've emotionally committed to Google who've committed to Chachi PT and saying I'm gonna go with GROC.

1:04:26So I think they'll achieve a very hard technical problem with very low rewards So that's why I would pass a 200 million pray Billion but you need to go on like that. Sorry. It's the coffee. I would have agreed with you 30 days ago But um this dude's committed if this was a dalliance if this was a side project if this was a spider app like as it looked at first. But I think he has, can bring a level of vision and commitment that his competitors can't. Sam Altman, listen, is he the Steve Jobs of our era? Is he better? Do the discussion? But is he even really like a founder with no equity, been fired once?

1:05:01All his co -founders are gone. It's just an unstake, my point is with OpenA, it's wildly successful, but it is unstable. I don't think Sam Altman can do anything he wants without talking to his nonprofit board or convincing people, Elon can just fire up one of his jets or his rockets, fly wherever, raise a few more billion, fund it with SpaceX if he has to, like he's done before, and he can just be a friggin' force of nature in the way like no one else can. No one in our industry can be a force of nature the way he can. Nobody. No one has the resources, the richest man in the world even now, who can do this?

1:05:33Jason, comment, agree on every sentence of that, including I want to say that I've enjoyed the fact that we, for the last three minutes, have deemed Elon the stable one. I think that alone is worthy of you. I don't fully subscribe to the great man theory of companies. No amount of great man theory can make 400 million people, 500 million people decide they want to go on X if they've already kind of mentally locked them to charge EPT. I don't think you can reopen that discussion. When you look, when you interact with the bar, you're like, yeah, that's better in some respects. But I just think, you know, it's one of those hard things to say.

1:06:05The markets already been taken. And maybe he gets some share of it, but I don't think it displays Chachi PT at scale in the minds of the consumer, which is 80, 90 % of Chachi PT business. You can get a minority share of it, but I don't think it'll be huge. It's really interesting you say that, Rook, is when you actually look at the hard fast today, I don't think Sam Altman's life has ever been harder. He's losing talent hand over the first right now. It's an incredibly challenging competitive landscape with the commoditization of models around him. and there's 10 other things, but on wavering train of consumer demand continues stronger than ever.

1:06:40Yeah, that's the thing about consumer, right? If you hit it, right, this is the classic VCs, and you can screw up almost everything as long as you nail the product market fit in consumer, right? For a while at least. That would be my pushback to you, Rory, which is you said, no man can change 500 million people. Does that not go to the power of brand? Elon Musk is probably probably the most famous man on the planet at this stage. Two by two famous and rich, pretty much at the top of both, right? And my guess is I know some of who thinks he's more famous, but I love Jamath too. I love the who said that.

1:07:12I love the who, don't you. No, I think the one thing I will say is I had Edwin from Surge on the show. And he said just a couple of things about this. He said one, too many model providers are building for benchmarks and that doesn't actually mean that much. Number one, he said number two, Groc was incredible at a very small number of things, and actually it was an embodiment of the verticalization of models, and he thought we'd see more in terms of verticalized models. And he just said three, he hadn't seen a team work quite as hard and efficient as Elon's Groc's team, and he'd seen that first time with them being a customer.

1:07:45That's just his point. So I thought it was interesting. I think all those things were true. The reason I'm like in the Elon camp here at the Groc camp is I guarantee you this man has a 10 -year plan, just like he did for Tesla and SpaceX, and he is executing on it. And this guy is not the smartest person in the world, but he is in the friggin' elite. Like if you add like cross -functional smarts, like to understand everything, there may be no one smarter than him that actually works. There may be folks smarter than him to just play chess and invest money, but there's no one that can do everything and think like this guy can, right?

1:08:15Well, this is 11D chess. This is not 4D chess, like where we started this conversation. So if this man has a 10 year plan and he gets everything we've said, but he knows the power of the Chatchee BD print. He knows Sam Altman personally, he knows Anthropic. He recruited half of the original engineers in here, okay? His 10 -year plan's pretty good. I just can't see all of it, but I see little hints. When he says my entire team now just sticks their code in GROC rather than use cursor anymore, that sounds like a snippy along comment, but maybe we're seeing a little of the 10 -year plan there, right?

1:08:45It's just, I wish he published it like he did for Tesla because that was one of the greatest founder memos of all time, the first 10 -year plan, right? It was just if you folks haven't read it go goo it's like 2000 and four or something He told you ten years of Tesla and it all happened I mean a few of it happened differently, but this guy's got a 10 -year plan and he's got king he can commit Hundreds of billions to it who else can do that the good news Jason is that that is clearly going to be available to you I look forward to the episode where you talk about your commitment to the reason at least a token at least I'm gonna go on Robinhood and grab a token for this for this bad boy Oh, he's gone that.

1:09:20I don't need the underlying security. I'm just gonna buy the token. Why would I do it? We had, we had, we had, we had, we had, we had, we had, we had Vlad on the show and he said that, it imperative to tokenization success is the ability for companies to be tokenized without that permission. That's my point. I should be able to buy and rob it at open AI today. I thought Jesus Vlad is good. He is good, by the way, guys, like, yeah, it was a good episode. He's good. Can I ask you, we've got, What meta and best three and a half billion in Ray Bans, 66 % of HROM managers use AI to mate layoff decisions, cyber stars, I think the best fund in the business raises $300 million secondary fund.

1:09:58We can choose one of them, which one do you want to choose? I suggested this one so I'm going to pick it even though it seems obtuse I think it's interesting. Meta putting 3 .5 billion into Ray Bans. The reason I think it's interesting is it just shows us the scale today and that we started We've got this talking about 3 billion, 2 .5 billion into Windsurf and Google and like, this is Nichols and Dimes. These are experiment and we think it's a lot of money and it is a lot of money, but if Medicare can throw 3 .5 billion into Rayban for half a percent or something, I don't know, one percent or something like that.

1:10:26Yeah, yeah. But a token amount of ownership, right? Single digits. Then the numbers here are, they're tough for us to even understand what is material or immaterial in the age of AI, right? The bets are so big, the numbers are so large that this makes Windsorf look like like our like just one line on our afternoon strictly VC It doesn't even make it look material three three and a half billion may not mean anything in the next 24 months in AI Like they may it may not make the above the full news in in AI. That's my takeaway like people weren't talking about It's nothing. I didn't see it until you sent it Well, I have like 11 pairs of these AI Ray bands.

1:11:01So I do follow it a little bit, right? Yeah, I'm gonna try to vibe code with them later today if I can I know that's gonna work that's gone viral though, which is, you know, the information of started, the information TV, which competes with TbP and they had not, and they have not a Zuckerberg on for the first episode. And it got like 30 likes in nine hours. And I just tweeted, this shows you how hard media is. Mark Zuckerberg on your show gets 30 likes in nine hours. Five years ago, that would have been a viral show that trended on Twitter literally. Yeah. It's... No one cares. Well, I mean, it's not an important company.

1:11:37It's not one of those to go into the tighting it back to the information and it's unpaid in turn. It's this is, I mean, it had its moment, Harry, but it's not one of the important companies today. It's not a meaningful company. We're going off, please. Okay, we're going to do a quick fire. I've got some good ones, okay? So we are going to start with who, by the way, I love the way that our last Calhchee Quick Fire round was beaten by the market. Lindy Akari, you know, we were like, so Kashi, quick, far around, who will be the next CEO of X? Elon Musk, 19%, Shriram Krishnan, 16%, or other? I think this is a trick one.

1:12:17I'm gonna vote other because I don't think there will be a CEO of X again because X is re -orced. Right? X is an AI company now of which this X consumer app is a piece of it, right? And so I don't think Elon's gonna hire another, or another media. I mean, there'll be someone that has to run this business, a president or a GM, but he's gonna run this. I think I'm voting for, I guess it's Elon, because the parent company, he's got to run it. It's Tesla level. I don't think he wants to run Tesla, and I don't think he wants to run this, but I think he has no choice. It's too complicated now. This is not just doing the ops for Twitter, firing half the team and getting the tweets to load faster, and selling some ads.

1:12:56It's just, this is much bigger now. I agree in the sense, yes. It's another person who's really Elon but won't take the title because it will just hurt the people that Tesla too much in current dynamics. But yes, he will be in charge. Well, you guys have to say that. Can you just spend 10 minutes telling me how Grat's going to take over the world and the truth is, if this thing is going to take over the world, it's going to want to be running it. So you guys can believe that. Well, another S &P 500 company by Bitcoin. This doesn't finish this year. Yes, $150 returned on a hundred. No, returns you $217 on a hundred.

1:13:32That's the most significant, well, I mean, it's an easy bet, but yeah, the most significant fact is it's more likely, the market thinks it's more likely than not. Yeah, it's almost certainly gonna happen. Yeah, there's gonna be a couple of other tech companies at least to do this. So I would agree, you vote yes and take the 50 % step up, even though it's not a great payoff because it's gonna happen. I think 100 % of S &P companies are gonna buy Bitcoin over the next 48 months, 100%. I think it's gonna become part of the standard treasury function in the CFO's office that has cash, it's gonna be part of cash management and they're just gonna allocate it.

1:14:04So this year it's gotta be. I think it has just become, listen, I'm not a crypto dude, right, and I still have some skepticism, but it is two mainstream, right? It is two mainstream and it's gonna become part of the treasury department and people will dial it up or down to try to get a little more juice or to have different strategies. I don't know how many people are gonna be like like the micro strategy one, right? I don't think they're gonna turn into holding companies with their cash. But I think, so I think that's my subtleties. I think it's going to become mainstream treasury department asset, short -term securities cash.

1:14:35We're not doing gold at our public company. That's a little complicated, but we're gonna have some Bitcoin. It's liquid and it has some benefits in the market. So we may have 10 % of our holdings in it. And the volatility will be annoying as a public company, right? Cause it will go up and down a little bit, but I think everyone will have some exposure. If that is true, that is a lot of upside from here. I'm not a Bitcoin fan, but I don't see anything but more demand in the foreseeable future. It's hard to see a decline in demand. Well, the best investment I made was I stopped drinking four years ago, and I put $2 ,000 per week into Bitcoin instead of booze.

1:15:10Yeah. And that's done well. Yeah, that's the way to do it. Final one, boys, will matter release Lama 5 before January. Yes, $307 returned on a hundred. No, 131 on a hundred. Knows the right bet because if Lamas defined as an open source product, didn't we just say that they're kind of slowly backing off that? So will they release it some close -overation product? Do you think that will be another open source alarm and model worry? Usually when people come in and you spend $20 billion dollars because the old thing isn't working. Tent to be humans tend to say, well, whatever I do, I'm going to do different than the old thing.

1:15:50So probably most of the things that were being done won't be done. So if it was all it's closed. So I think that when you have a regime of violent change of the expense of 20 billion dollars, it's unlikely you just continue on with the same cloud as the old guys. Listen, I think we're always got the, I think I think whatever the answer is, it's different than 30 days ago, right? With Alex Wang and Nat Friedman and team, it has completely blown up. This is not a 180 day planning cycle. They've already worked nonstop to reboot this whole thing. And if they think they should shoot Lomba 5, they've already shot it, they've debated it.

1:16:22If they wanna release it, cause a different team is doing it, and they're gonna reboot it just to get it out, that's possible, but this doesn't seem like a team that's doing something performative, right? So it's hard to imagine what was in place before them stays on the same schedule. And it's hard to imagine they can work faster with something already in the pipe, but that is possible sometimes. Sometimes a great team can pull stuff forward, right? It really can't happen. So all I know is it's radically different. So I'd be making up my bet, making this better, but I'll say yes anyway, because they want to get something out.

1:16:55Up until the last sentence you had, man, actually, you actually convinced me, your talk track convinced me even firmer to be a no, which is odd, therefore, that you ended up with a yes, because you're exactly, if you brought in as these new, wily, talented people and And you hear the make a difference. And you know that the first move you make is going to be scrutinized by everyone who wants a second guess that $14 billion check. The last thing you do is ship some lame ass version of the prior guy's work. The first thing you ship is going to be yours and it's going to be awesome. So I'm increasingly convinced no.

1:17:27Well, you get a chance to kill it. If you don't love it, you should kill it. You should kill it. If you don't love llama five, which they didn't build, your first week you should kill it. It'd be idiotic to release it and be responsible for something you didn't build and believe in, right? It would be idiotic. Boys, it's been a busy day for Jason. He's invested in Groc and Lovelable today. It's been a good day. Jason's done his deals for the year. This has been great, guys. I love my time with you. Thank you for joining me. Groc and Raw. Now, I want to make those shows, the best shows they can be.

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