This Week in SaaS: Should Wiz Have Accepted Google's $23BN Acquisition Offer, Crowdstrike: WTF Happens From Here: The Bull and the Bear Case & $1BN into Legal Tech in a Day with Clio and Harvey with Jason Lemkin

22:45Was the situation managed well? Well look, no, of course it wasn't. We did not. It's even not, in my opinion, like I was literally looking on their on Krautsike website, they have a page called the Falcon content update. This morning didn't even have an update from today. It was still yesterday. Now I check it does have an update. There still isn't a great root cause analysis on their website that says what really happened. Listen, we get you did this content update, we get that it failed. But why? Like, why do we not have a root cause analysis up on their website today? And it is great that he went on, he was clearly exhausted, right?

23:18Couldn't even talk, needed the water. But you've got to come up with a real root cause analysis, not a technical one, right? We did a content patch in the morning and it brought down the world. Know what happened at a human level. And so many cloud leaders don't do much better than this. Okay, they don't. They may do worse. But for CrowdStrike at its $100 billion valuation and even worse being, here's the thing about CrowdStrike that is so obvious now, it's a sole source solution. So, Sylvander, single point of failure. If you're a single point of failure, I think you owe more root cause analysis and transparency than we've gotten.

23:53So I give them a C plus. We're gonna have a fun case study to watch. I don't think anyone's gonna churn. I thought, listen, if it shows one thing, it shows that it's incredibly important to global security and infrastructure, and the numbers are still fucking amazing. Amazing. I'm wondering. I'm growing 33%, it almost 4 billion in revenue. And you said it won't churn. So I use that. Yeah, but it's not as good as it sounds, okay? Because the amount of energy in time it takes to deploy crowd strike is so huge that it would take three to five years to turn out for real. Okay, you have to test Sentinel -1 or whatever you're gonna do.

24:27In a small group, you have to do it on staging. You have to make sure it doesn't bring you up to one off. Like that is a three to five year initiative to move a core infrastructure, okay? If it happens at all, so even if there is churn, it's gonna be so far out we're not gonna see it. But, and talk is cheap. People talk about churn, but then we're on to the next thing, right? The airlines were terrible. Like this is a destructive brand moment, but not everyone was impacted the same way or the same extent. If it didn't really bring down my business, it's IT's problem to deal with, right? So we don't know.

24:54But here's the Prong CrowdStrike relies on selling 30 products, talking about multi -brack. They have 30 products. When CrowdStrike brought my company down, Harry, how's the sales team gonna, how the upsell's gonna go this week? Hi, Harry, it's Jason from CrowdStrike. I've got a couple more security modules to sell you, and you're gonna get the call, and you're just gonna get your head cut off for an hour, right? So I think almost upsells are gonna have to go on hold for like, you know, three quarters, right? It's not just going multi -product hairy, what it is. This is what DataDog perfected.

25:26It's having folks love your products so much that they want to buy more products from you. It's not just, multi -products not enough. Multi -product when they don't like you, you know, it can work, but it's brute forcing. It's, I mean, I would say 2018, 2019, no one loved a product more than DataDog, and now it's an eight or 10 product company, right? So how CrowdStrike has benefited, I believe, from some of that. So it's gonna be a rough NRR year. The GERR is going to stay high, the logo retention, but the upstale is going to be just brutal. Okay, so I just wanted to kind of separate as you can.

25:55Yeah. If we move forward then and we think about a bull case and a bare case for CrowdStrike, if we start on the bull case, that's start up to Mystic, what is the bull case for CrowdStrike from here? Well, two things. First of all, even with CrowdStrike, arguably the most attractive SaaS and Cloud company through last week in terms of multiples, everything full package, Everything cash flow. So your hell to the highest standard. Having said that everyone gets one pass And I do think what CrowdStrike kept saying is very important even though no one was listening at the time Which was this was not a security incident?

26:27Everything was this is not a security incident. We screwed up. We did this upload this release that was bad This content release whatever it was, but it would our security was not breached. You have 200 SaaS apps running your company So many threat vectors in security. There's so much threat if CrowdStrike has been knocked down a peg on your list But you still believe it is the best solution, including effort and work to rip them apart and do something. You get one pass, you don't get three, and it wasn't a security incident. So the cost to send an angry tweet is so low. It's so low to be outraged on Twitter, right?

27:00We're all onto new things. There's, you know, we can see it in politics. We stop carrying a week, you know? And so how much the Delta is gonna care? I mean, Delta's gonna be upset for quite some time, right? I was at my gym yesterday, Harry. It's still down for CrowdStrike. I put it on Twitter. It's still down. My gym is down for crowd striking. It's so hilarious. Half the monitors are the blue screen of death across this huge gym. But you've got to give folks a pass and the fact that it wasn't a security breach is important. It is important. And so do I think more folks are going to buy more modules this week?

27:30No. Do I think the sales team's going to have a tough go of it for a little while? Yes. Do I think the existing base will give them a puckered pass? Yes, because everyone's got one. OK, so it wasn't a security breach. There's different people in patched in different magnitudes a lot is impacted as deltors, for example. And then people get a pass for a mistake or two. And this is one of the first that they've made severely. That's why I think the communications is so bad because it was a nominal apology, but they weren't asking for a pass. They weren't explaining that this is why it happened and why Harry will never happen again.

28:04That's what we need to hear. To really get a pass, you need to hear that. I think if they have no issues for a year, nothing. nothing. They will get delta aside, they will get a pass. You've got to let your vendors screw up once every five years. Again, if this was a material security breach, I think it's existential for this company, right? And that's why they also subtly said, be alert, threats are going to be higher. Folks are going to be trying to take advantage of the situation. Like they were carefully placing their words to talk about what really matters, which comes to the other side of this equation, which is the back case.

28:34Should this be the end crowd strike, they have fines, there's going to be legals, there's going to be subsequent security attacks. It could snowball. Yeah, there is. The irony is, you know, some folks are saying this is exactly what happened with McAfee when George Kurtz was CEO there that they had such a meltdown they had to sell the company they were unable to recover. I guess it could happen. That's top of mind, right, is making sure that the company sustains. There's so many great people working on this issue that I think maybe the bigger issue is they just become too conservative after this.

29:07They may become too conservative. We do need crowds, right? It's done a pretty incredible service since 2011. That's 13 years in. It went and 13 years it built a $4 billion business growing 33%. It's it is a service and we'll give them one pass. I don't think it will bring them down. Final element on crowds. Yeah. Crowds try to smoke it camp today is 66 billion. Yeah, it was 100 last week. Forget about the drama. This this may be the most the only rational thing I've seen in the stock market. If growth is going to be cut 40 % because of upsell because of lengthening sales cycles. Maybe that sounds about right.

29:38We're going to have this chat at Christmas time. Yeah. Where it's crowned straight then. I'll tell you why it may rebound. They have extremely conservative projections for next year. They said they're only going to grow in the teens from 33 % this year. Super conservative is what they already told Wall Street. So they have a big buffer. All the analysts downgraded them. I'm sure you saw it, right? They all downgraded them and said growth's going to be lower. But they had such a big buffer because as they projected sex to sell their growth, that they may well be able to still make their number even with all these issues.

30:09It's a little thing. So like, I would be careful to bet against them because they just put such a buffer in hitting the numbers. So you've got to give it a number, and I'll give it a number two. I've just had it 66 today. I'm gonna guess it bridges 50 % of the gap. So was it a hundred? Today it's at 66, so I'm gonna guess it makes back 17 % half of that. I'll go 83. I'm gonna get it for 75. I don't think it'll take such a rebound. I think the Eagles and fines are gonna be real and I think it's gonna be an interesting enough story It's touched enough to consume lives. Yeah, actually it's had serious negative brown down It's true the legal and fines you take a reserve and the truth is it doesn't really matter because it's not a forward impact It doesn't really tell you where crowds likes gonna be in five years so the markets usually strike it off even though It's a lot of drama.

30:54Can you imagine when this shit happens? You're like you know having dinner with your family and you're like you what we're down? You know, Harry was the number one thing. Reason I wanted to sell my startup was for these issues. Every outage, it took so much out of me. It just killed me. Every single one just killed me trying to align the team around it, being always being on the front line on Page of Duty, the first one up all night long when there were issues, whenever we would like making sure no matter what, we were up by 5 a .m. Pacific right before any issues came up. But we were big in the UK, so we had other issues.

31:28So we would see back in the day, we would see waves of issues because we had so many customers in the UK because of BT and G Europe. Would they would be our canary in the coal mine? When we had an issue, we would go down in Europe before we could see it in the US. And I was up at 3 a .m. It's not that I needed the sleep. It's just never being able to sleep. I was never able to sleep as a founder because of these issues. I don't know if I'm happier today, but that was the number one thing I was so glad to have behind me. I still have these flashbacks when I saw George on the Fruggan Twitter, like couldn't breathe in his hair and he had to drink the water.

31:59I'm like, that was me in 2010, the worst feeling. And you just watch time tick and you're like, okay, if we can go back up in five minutes, and then it's 10 minutes, then your entire support is just lit up and then you go into half an hour. And then people don't believe you're ever coming back, a half an hour in, right? It's just the worst feeling in SAS, is that feeling? Now listen, final segment before we wrap up. But we saw two today, a billion dollars going into legal tax. Clio raises 900 million hits 3 billion valuation. First off, it's quite a lot of dilution I thought for around at that scale.

32:34Most of it is secondary. It's 300, 3 billion post, so let's call that 2 .5 billion, whatever, I mean, a lot of it's secondary. And they're at 200 million revenue and accelerating, 200 million ARR. So it's a 10X ARR deal, 2 billion ish pre. Hi for today's world, but not out of line. Let's assume they're growing more than 30 % today, right? This whole payments fintech thing is their big accelerant, right? This is company founded in 2007 with a great CEO. Everyone in legal tech loves this guy Jack noon He never quits since 2007 But if they were doing a hundred million two year they're doing it said they went from a hundred million to two million two years Okay, which is why they raised the money.

33:09That's pretty good growth in today's world But if they're they're founded in 2007 got to a hundred million two years ago That was 15 years to a hundred million that's not a rocket ship is it? I think the fun one about this one this one will be like bill .com that took forever to get to 100 million. And then when the stars aligned, just like Bill didn't really align until they got into payments and payment management, the same thing happened with Theo. Now that they're managing legal payments, they were able to double in two years and when it took them 15 years to get to 100 million, it was not a rocket ship.

33:39So I think the number is the growth and the number is justify it. And I do believe the majority, I don't think it's that much. I bet it's 100 million of delusion, 200 million, the majority, I know a lot of the early guys sold their positions, maybe in their entirety. Sorry, the second reason why to early investors early operators someone told me this an LP told me this comment the other day I didn't realize it was Cleo but then it was that one of their LPs it sold all their stake in the round one of their GPs So it's a question on liquidity that you had earlier? No, I'm not really yeah, but there's not enough of these there were one of these a week in 2021 Harry Here's the problem with venture.

34:10This is a plus CEO. I love them The company was founded in 2007 So let's imagine you the VCs came in later, but imagine messing 2007 and now it's 2024 How many years do you have to wait for liquidity? 17 years for liquidity. How long does the nominal fund life 10 years it doesn't match up? Yeah, you get two one -year extensions. As a founder in a way, there's nothing more heartening than these ones that accelerate late in life, right? The Clio's, the Bills, even drama side, the UI paths, right? These late blossomers give us all hope that if you're 110 committed to the space, right? Like Clio was really early into in web practice management for lawyers.

34:44Like, let me tell you, trying to sell the legal back in 2007 was impossible. they didn't trust the internet for a signature, for a document, I'm out of here. Eric, I'm not to forget it. I'm out of here. To the fact that he could commit as the founder for this long and finally hit it, it is just heartening because we want to believe this as founders that we don't all have to be whizzed to have a great outcome, right? It's a great, it's a better story in some ways than whizz in some ways, right? Because we can't, most of us can't be whizz, but Clio is to us as like, listen, if we're great founders and we never quit for 20 years, maybe we can be Clio.

35:14I agree. I'm going back to a couple of different points that I'd be like, who would have thought actually that you could get this big company in purely legal tech and practice management in legals? Yeah. Well, maybe you can't without managing the payments. Fintech's going through some tough times right now because of low margins and fraud and other issues. But when you combine payments and software just right like a Shopify, man, it's powerful. But you got to do it. There's too many cynical, there are too many cynical folks bolting payments onto software with 0 % margin and claiming it was SaaS revenue.

35:42That was at the edge of fraud, but doing the high margin version like Cleo and Bill and it's epic if it works, right? I mean 70 % of Spotify's revenue is from payments and merchant services and not from SaaS. 70%. I sent you the Germany deal that we did, Aloe, because I wanted your thoughts on it, which incorporate the POS provider for ethnic rationales under a certain size. That's exactly the thesis there. So totally agree. But when we look at that in context, Jason, we then have Harvey AI for lawyers, which raised 100 million at a 1 .5 billion valuation. They say they triple AIR off from December, implying that they are 30 million AIR today two years from founding.

36:23Yes. What are the thoughts on that? Sustainability of revenue, how that just compares, compared to maybe Cleo in the same space. What are your thoughts when you hear that? You know, the rate at which some folks can grow in AI today, it really is breathtaking. It breaks the models. But then, when I talk with folks in legal tech that I know, the objection, and I don't think it's totally the harbours, it's with a lot of folks in the groups in the category which is that, look, we're all going to do the same stuff. We're all going to review NDAs and we all can do basic document review and we all can even do eDiscovery and stuff that is big categories.

37:03we're all going to have parity on this. Like, it's hard to really break out. And I think 2025 will be the year of SaaS AI parity. Everything's going to be parity in 2025. Not total parity, but close to parity, right? What do you mean by that, Jason? Every legal tech product will have the same AI features. It's already happening in context, and where I've done a lot of investing. If you look at the, if you look at Zendesk, Gorgeous Intercom, Front, customer, look at their website, their homepage is all the same thing, and they basically, now they're all very different, okay? like Gorgeous Ram on the board, it owns e -commerce context center, okay?

37:34But they'll basically do the same thing. They automate 30 % of your context center issues with AI. Again, they do it different ways. How could you have a, what? How could you have a context center product with 0 % AI today? You'll lose every deal. But in the other hand, you can't say 30 % is game -changing because they all can do 30%. Now, is Zendest as good as Gorgeous? Maybe Roman will tell you not. You know, is Intercom the best? You know, Owen's gonna tell you shouting from the rooftops that there's as their fin is the best. From a check the box perspective, they're all hitting that 30 % to 40 % level.

38:04And so I remember when legal started to blow up, and I asked Andy from Logical, that was my first legal tech investment that sold for 300 million last year. I'm like, wow, my mind was just blown with all this NDA review and document review. He's like, man, like everyone, it's all gonna be the same. Give it six months, yeah, it's great. But I know 20 legal tech CEOs who all just bolting this in. Now, I'm not saying someone won't break out and it might not be Harvey, right? But this, I do think when we get excited and venture, there's one issue which is this experimentation budget, right, will this stuff stick, which people talk about, right, especially in the CEO's office.

38:37The other question I really think is AI parity. And that's why I think in B2B, AI is going to really calm down in a year, right? Like you invested in this German company, right? I invested an owner, right, which is adjacent, right? Owner builds these like incredibly powerful websites through using AI for restaurants now, okay? And they're not the only one, but when it came out, But it was, it's jaw dropping, how good it is. But in 2025, everyone's gonna have this feature, and the owner's gonna have to have 20 more features, because everyone's gonna copy. It's like, we're back to copying. We fell away from copying for a while in SAS, right?

39:11And now we're all back to everybody quickly copying each other in AI. And I think in a way, when I say that AI parody, I actually think the more vertical you are in SAS, and the more niche you are, actually the more differentiated it'll be, right? Because when you're still competing with spreadsheets and paper, Automating workflows great, but then automating humans out is next level. It's just in the most competitive spaces, you know, Outrage, Gong, Sales, Off, all these, you're not going to be able to tell the difference between any of their AI products next year. At a detailed level, you can, but superficially, you're not going to be able to tell the difference.

39:41And Andy's point from logical is legal, legal gets it. There's no question this is the first thing that's been disruptive in legal tech in a long time, right? But here's the point about AI. Everyone gets it. You didn't figure this out on your own. You're not the only legal tech company who said in 2024, wow, what if we had an AI to this, right? And I'm not saying Harvey didn't get 30 million of revenue. The rest didn't. But is that sustainable and I hate the defensible word in VC? But it does matter. Is that defensible when the entire industry is doing that in 2025? We'll see. We'll just see. That's a great far around my friend.

40:14What is no one saying that you're willing to say? Like you said earlier, we're all pretending. What other thing is no one saying that we're all feeling? This one isn't like a Epic, but I just think we're sitting on a ton of one X funds in venture just so many one X funds They'll never get out of one X a whole generation and listen I barely saw I when I was when I first joined venture I could see the tail end of the 2000 funds I mean I wasn't there in venture But I could see what they looked like 14 15 years out and just doing one X in a 2000 vintage fund was like top -design I think I'm not saying we're going through that But there are so many funds that will end up a whole generation of one X funds I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of funds from the last few years are one X funds.

40:55Tell me, what is the most underappreciated public company, Jason? I'm still going to say Clavio for a variety of reasons, and I'll tell you why. Clavio for folks that don't know is basically the HubSpot free commerce. Okay? They are coming up on a billion in revenue. In fact, they are bigger in marketing revenue than HubSpot. They're actually bigger. But they're very specialized on Shopify. 77 % of the revenue comes from Shopify. This is a company that was almost bootstrapped, right? As you talked with Andrew. But here's what's interesting. Here's just like I did everyone love day to dog back in the day, right?

41:23People love whizz, look at it. I know a bit about the B2B commerce space until there was a little bit hiccup recently when they increased prices at Clavio, but until then this was a grab you on the street and tell you how much you love the company coming up on a billion in ARR, growing, approaching 40 to 50 % growth. It's a magical story that's not understood well enough. I don't think anyone outside to be commerce had even heard of this company before it filed to go public, right? Everyone in Ecommerce, it's the giant. That 150 million ARR CEO is talking about that I talked with yesterday like oh half the conversation was about I wish I was clavier or clavier This needs it 150 million, but the fact that that isn't a 20x ARR company like CrowdStrike was it worries a lot of us the multiple there There's there's nothing but love for clavier nothing but great I mean you could you know you could say all the revenue is to celebrate in a little bit But it's you know it's to sell rating for a lot.

42:11This is still a top 5 % public company It's only worth 6 .9 billion these the kind of stories that whiz obscure. In my mind, should be 12 to 13 billion dollar company minimum. Penaltimate one for you, my friend. Yes. The most overappreciated public company today. The most overappreciated public company today. I mean, I don't want to pick on anybody, but I think the one we're trying to understand is how was Snowflake vulnerable when it appeared in vulnerable? Snowflake was, you know, the whiz of its day, right? All the way through. Like, it would just, we'd never, not only had we never seen metrics like this, It was sucking up data, sucking up budget, like we'd never seen before.

42:48Then it became mortal. Now the most legendary CEO of SaaS Quit. Quit. I mean, it's pretty bad that Frank Slootman quit. We're in a quitter culture. Everyone's quitting now, Harry. It's not just the kids. Everyone's quitting. And I, listen, I mean, the man deserves his rest, okay? But it's now a mortal company. It is now a mortal company. It is growing, but it's just as good as CrowdStrike now. Same ARR, same growth basically, right? It's almost the same ARR, almost the same growth. Well, that is a buy because it's priced at $40. It's a buy, but it's mortal. It seemed like Snowflake was going to be the next great platform, but is Databricks?

43:30I know it's not completely fungible product, but it's growing even faster at $2 .5 billion, right? It's just mortal. Databricks, I think, proves Snowflake was mortal. And no one ever talked about Clavio until a couple of months ago, we all talked about Snowflake. Snowflake, Snowflake, right? It was just, it could, it could do, and it still has done no wrong. It is now merely one of the best. I agree with you. I interviewed Arra from service Titan recently. Incredible. Yes. Incredible. That is a fucking far business. Farib, one of the, I told you that would be the first IPO of the year I was wrong, but it might be the best, right?

44:03Yeah. Final five. Final one. What private company are you not in that you would most like to be in. So you tweeted earlier about Ravolute and Tygon. I would most like to be in Ravolute of all private companies right now. I would take Wiz and Service Titan. And if I were my LP's, I'd be very critical. I'm like, these are two CEOs that were Sassar Super fans from day zero. They know Sassar well, wire and chew an investor. I would beat myself up as an LP too. These are great CEOs. These are salt of the earth folks that will go forever. These are both great humans. The thing, one thing I learned from Mamoon Hamid is if you can, maybe don't invest in jerks because it just burns you out.

44:39Why aren't you invested in those two if they are both super fans? Yeah, no, they didn't ask me to. Why would have invested? Do you not think you should chase? I think that it would be a good idea.

44:54I think it would be a good idea. I think I'll do okay. I think if I'd been more of an outbound guy than an inbound guy, I think I'd get a good idea. If you've been in 10 times more money investing. Oh my God, I don't remember that, you know, that we, I mentioned it, tag wolf, incredible business and I invest $6 million. And the founders, like, I just wanted Jason. I just wanted Jason lost around the round before. These are my 10 messages to him. I'm like, yeah, yeah, I got to do more. Well, it's all, you know what the meta thing is? It's all, it's, it's a good criticism. And I have shared that with some like, I think it'll be the reason.

45:31In my failing, listen, some of it's my DNA, right? I spend 99 % of my time trying to help and hope that a few things come in that bounce the right way. It's probably a mistake. But the other thing is, you know, I like, and this is why I've written about this constantly for more than a decade. I wish I was a better recruiter, Harry. It's my number one regret in life. In tech, it's not being a better recruiter. Of investing, Colin? Of. Yes. Whatever version of it is. It's not like I'm a bat out of the world's worst recruiter, But you have you should spend all of you you should spend 20 % of your time I know you have like three partners Harry or whatever you should spend 20 % of you I'm finding the one that that will get you these deals that you weren't in relentless and as executive You should just be relentless about building your manager team were relentless like stop wasting your time on this other thing Find the guy that will make sure that you don't have the outage across Stop trying to fix the issues yourself founders and go find the person to fix it and I should have built I should have built a better set of folks under me investing so that I didn't have to be full stack You're right.

46:29I mean not to spend all the time with it But it's the right question and so you know again I was talking with another CEO the other day north of a hundred million and we were criticizing the friend of our company I in a friendly way we were just we were both know this company well that that's a stage behind them But doing well and we're tired of them like the biggest this is such a great founder But they're just so slow to hire their management team is like this guy to hundred is like well You can't find anybody good these days. I'm like and a hundred you can't find anybody good You know, growing almost 50%.

46:53I'm like, that's ultimately it's your only job after you have product market fit is finding the best people for the team, right? And so I think as an investor, I have failed to expand my surface area and it does haunt me a bit. I wish I had an answer to being a better recruiter than I am. Thank you so much for doing this. I always love doing these shows. Listen, we had some bumps with crowd strike between whizz and Cleo and even the Harvey stuff. These are still good times in Sass and Cloud. They're still good times. Do let me know what you think of this week in SAS. I want to make it the best format for you.

47:26So if you have improvements or if you have any additions that you'd like us to make, then let us know on Twitter at Harry's Debbings. We always love to hear your thoughts and you can check it out on YouTube by watching the full video there by searching for 20 VEC. But before we leave you today, all of you listening use tons of software every day. Sometimes it fills us with rage. You can't figure something out. The chatbot in the bottom right is useless, you keep getting bombarded with these useless pop -ups, and for those of you who build products, no one wants their product to feel like this.

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50:23As always, I so appreciate all your support and stay tuned for an incredible episode of 20 growth this coming Friday with the head of product and the former head of growth at TransferWise.