Google's extreme smart home makeover

25:04As I know I've seen this with LX +, that disconnect between what the LLM can do and what the deterministic systems that we had before are able to do is still there. Have you solved that problem? That's two questions I know. Yeah, I think a lot of questions about this since we rolled out. Yes, early access is starting this month. I'll be super clear. Gemini for home is the thing that's going into early access. for cameras and doorbells. That has already started to ramp up. So people who have raised their hands to get into the early access should be seeing. I just got one of them today. I'm very excited.

25:40There you go. And a beautiful red one too. I'm holding up the new camera. It just arrived today. The very pretty red camera. Very is what we call it. Yeah, so early access for cameras and doorbells in the home app, that's already started to roll out. And it is a rollout. So, you know, it's not day and date for everyone. And so and then on speakers and displays, we'll start ramping that up in the last week of this month. Okay. So, yeah. So like next month for the speakers and displays for most people. Last week of this month. So, sure. I mean, yeah. So Google Assistant is gone. RIP. It's dead. Yeah.

26:19When you get Gemini, can you bring back Google Assistant if you don't like Gemini or it's just Gemini? No, it's just Gemini. So you'll get in the home app when you're sort of get off the early access list, you'll get a notification in there. You know, you'll go through a couple of screens, you know, to select your voices and do a bunch of things. But yeah, when you do that, you switch over from the assistant to Gemini. So when you say, hey, G, and I'm saying that so I don't trigger everybody's speakers, all your listeners. But yeah, when you say, hey, G, at that point, you are now talking to Gemini.

26:55And that is not a reversible change. Will it be able to do everything that Google Assistant can do today? And hopefully more. And more. So yes, yeah, yeah. Yeah, the intent is very much, yeah, whatever you've got with the Assistant, so all of your media stuff, everything you do with household coordination, you know, people care about setting their timers and their lists and all of those things. Yes, you'll absolutely be able to do that, all of your smart home controls. Then I think the big thing, though, is that with Gemini, it sort of unlocks this more natural conversation, right? And so, Jen, we often talk about how controlling the smart home has become like this, I have to speak in a very specific syntax, right?

27:37Like if I say the words in this exact order, then something will happen. So that's where I think Gemini will be the upgrade here is it's going to be far more conversational. You don't have to, like, remember the formulas to get it right. So pretty excited about that. Well, and you talked about the cameras as being key there with the multi-modality. Not everyone wants cameras in their homes, but people want smart homes. And there's so many more parts and pieces to creating a home that understands what you do than just visual. So I guess, can you speak a little bit to what your vision is for how that ambient home kind of all comes together outside of just the cameras?

28:17Because obviously the cameras are what you launched last week, but I want to know more about the future. Yeah, and in some ways, I think we've taken, as an industry, we've taken this view that a camera is sort of a predominantly security device, right? Like you put cameras to like that's that's probably the primary thing that people use it for. One way that I think about it is that the camera in so many ways will become kind of this general purpose sensor in a way. Right. Right. Whereas, you know, today you've got like motion sensors and they do a very specific thing. You've got water leak sensors that do a specific thing.

28:59And you've got all these different sensors. Right. And those, I think, all have a tremendous role. But I think the role of a camera evolves from just like, you know, I see a thing, I tell you the thing, and it's predominantly security to it could be this incredibly powerful, like general purpose sensor that sort of makes the home smarter. Now, of course, there's like different layers of comfort that have to come with that for people to adopt it in different contexts, right? Like you're probably reasonably comfortable with it outdoors in your backyard and your front yard to bring something inside the house.

29:32You've got to do it in a way that you trust it and you feel like it's secure and stuff like that. So and I think there the biggest unlock will be if users start to see that there's value that it's giving them, then then they might be willing to make that that trade. Yeah. But so that's my sort of view on cameras. I think the the notion of Gemini being this proactive like helper in the home absolutely has to encompass all of the devices in your Sparkle. And I think this is like the this has been in my mind that the gap in the smart home has been and we've talked about this before. The journey has never the promise has been if you invest in a smart home and you add more devices in the home gets smarter.

30:13Right. That is not the case today. Right. Every device, every incremental device I had to my home, it gets an order of magnitude worse. It's more set up. They don't work together. Automations is like this thing I've got to do if this, then that. And like, it's so complex. And so this is where, for me, it's not about automations, but it's about Gemini just being able to say, okay, bring all of your devices in, we'll figure it out for you. That to me is the unlock. And it has to, at its core, be bring in any device, right? Any sensor, any compatible like smart home device. And can I figure it out?

30:47And can I make it smarter? So we haven't had a new Nest Hub smart display for a while. There was the Google Pixel tablet, which wasn't really, but kind of. And there was, you know, you've talked a lot about cameras being key and vision. So a smart display really does sort of tie a lot of what you've talked about together in theory, unless you have an entirely new form factor for this that you can share now. But is this something that is part of what you see as integral to that sort of core hardware where you said at the beginning that you're going to focus on producing the core hardware? And if it is key, why?

31:30What's important about the smart display? I guess to preempt, given that we're not sharing any explicit news about smart displays, the way that I'll just say it is we're definitely committed to smart displays. While we're not announcing anything now, you should definitely expect that we'll have news to share there soon. And I think the reason that I'm excited about this category is if you think about, you know, how all these LLM technologies are sort of converging, it does present itself as a like incredible form factor to interact with something like Gemini for home, right? Like you think about the properties of a smart display, microphone, which means audio in, speaker, audio out.

32:09So it's great for audio in, audio out. It's got a screen, which means to complement sort of a voice modality, you can sort of interact with it. You can sort of visualize information. You know, we've got cameras in them. So you get that that's a vision piece to it as well. So I think, you know, as I see where Gemini for Home is going and Gemini more broadly is going, all of the things that Google is investing in building, for me, it feels like the almost sort of ultimate form factor to be able to deliver like a really great home experience. So that's why we are going to continue to invest in that category.

32:42So I think it's going to be awesome. A lot of people, I think, have correctly identified a lot of the same problems that you have with the smart home, right? And I think a lot of people also think LLMs are going to help fix it. But you work for Google, which also has this unbelievably gigantic trove of information in real time and not about every person on Earth. And as you talk about like multimodal, you know, multimodal input and understanding more about people's context, like it's all just sitting there for you if you want it. So like is the is the end of this road that like my smart home not only knows where I am, but has like read my email and my Google Maps history and knows what I shopped for and actually can like preheat the oven for me without even me having to ask and that I just live my life.

33:31And because Google knows everything about me, it starts to solve my life for me. Is that is that the end of this road? On the point around having access to all this information, I think what we build with it is going to start and end with trust, right? So you've got to be able to trust the sort of assistant that you're bringing into your home. And so I think, you know, we've got like as broader Google and certainly in the context of the home, we definitely have to earn that trust. We thought so deeply about what it meant to bring Gemini into the home, which is why we started with, hey, this is going to be a communal experience first, because we don't want to skirt around the ideas that you might accidentally have access, like my partner might accidentally have access to my personal interactions with Gemini and stuff like that.

34:21Now, I can see definitely like us continue to invest there with the right, you know, maybe Jen, to your point, with the right sort of sensors and ability to authenticate that is actually a niche alone in the room talking to Gemini. Then in that case, yes, I should have access. But if there's other people in the room, I probably don't. Right. I don't want my credit card details or a personal interaction about what cough medicine I might have wanted to use last week when I had a sore throat to be sort of like displayed out to everyone. So I think we're approaching it in a way that we want to be very thoughtful, especially in a communal environment.

34:57Like, how do you utilize the right set of context and history about the person and do that in a thoughtful way, in a way that sort of preserves trust long term? Because I don't think, David, we get to – I think the thing you described is definitely a place that we would love to get to. But we have to do it methodically and thoughtfully that maintains trust along that journey the entire way. I just think it's interesting because you, you, that's a different problem than everybody else has, right? Everybody else has that problem and also doesn't know what's in my email. And so I think you're just in this position of like, you have to solve the creepy problem, not the where is David problem, right?

35:38Like, knowing where I am is not hard for Google. It just isn't hard for Google in a way that is hard for almost every company. You have to reflect back to me where I am without freaking me out about it. And I think in a lot of ways, that might actually be the harder problem to solve. I think that's true, not just for us, though. I think with any sort of new technology, right? Not with any new technology, but with a lot of new technologies, the line between cool and creepy can be a very fine line, right? Oh, and it like dances all over the place all the time. Or it constantly evolves, right? And I think the onus is on us as product builders to say people are comfortable moving the line if they can crisply understand what it does for them and whether or not it actually adds value to their life.

36:25And then do they trust the person building them and giving them that thing? So that's why I think there's two big parts we have to get right, which is one, you've got to deliver enough value to the user, to their lives. that says, okay, this is cool enough that I'm willing to give you permission to do these things. And then do they trust you as sort of an entity or a company or a product builder to do that? And so I think if we can, you know, do those two things really well, then I think we could actually make people's lives in their home a lot easier. All right, that's a good place for us to end, I think.

37:03Hopeful and dangerous all in the same way. I like it very much. Anish, thank you so much for doing this. this. This is really fun. No, I appreciate it, David. Yes, thank you. Thanks, Jen. All right, we need to take a break and then we're going to come back and we're going to talk about Peloton, but Anish, you don't get to be here for that. Okay. Support for this show comes from Shopify. Starting a business is exciting, but once the excitement wears off, you might realize it also means juggling a thousand tiny tasks. Shopify gets that. Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world in 10 % of all e-commerce in the US, from household names like Mattel and Gymshark to brands just getting started.

37:42And they want to help with everything from sales to design to marketing. Can't code? No problem. Shopify's got slick, ready-made templates that actually look good. If you need help writing product descriptions or touching up photos, they've got you covered there too with their built-in AI tools. And if you hit a wall, their 24-7 support team is right there for you. If you're ready to sell, you're ready for Shopify. Turn your big business idea into reality with Shopify on your side. Sign up for your$1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com slash VergeCast. Go to shopify.com slash VergeCast.

38:20That's shopify.com slash VergeCast.

38:28Support for the show comes from Charles Schwab. At Schwab, how you invest is your choice. not theirs. That's why when it comes to managing your wealth, Schwab gives you more choices. You can invest and trade on your own. Plus, get advice and more comprehensive wealth solutions to help meet your unique needs. With award-winning service, low costs, and transparent advice, you can manage your wealth your way at Schwab. Visit schwab.com to learn more.

38:59Support for this show comes from LinkedIn. When you're a small business owner, your business is on your mind 24-7. So when you're hiring, you need a partner that works just as hard as you do. That hiring partner is LinkedIn Jobs. When you clock out, LinkedIn clocks in. LinkedIn makes it easy to post your job for free, share it with your network, and get qualified candidates that you can manage all in one place. LinkedIn's new features can help you write job descriptions and then quickly get your job in front of the right people with deep candidate insights. Either post your job for free or pay to promote.

39:34Promoted jobs get three times more qualified applicants. At the end of the day, the most important thing to your small business is the quality of candidates. And with LinkedIn, you can feel confident that you're getting the best. Based on LinkedIn data, 72 % of SMBs using LinkedIn say that it helps them find high-quality candidates. Find out why more than 2.5 million small businesses use LinkedIn for hiring today. Find your next great hire on LinkedIn. Post your job for free at linkedin.com slash track. That's linkedin.com slash track to post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply.

40:12All right, we're back. V song is here. Hi, V. Hi. I mean, fine. We can talk about the glasses. You want to talk about the glasses? Let's talk about the glasses. We're here to talk about Peloton, but you can't just show up on camera with me and wearing these glasses and we're not going to talk about it for two minutes. So you are wearing the, let me hold on. I'm going to try and get the name right. The Ray-Ban Meta display. The Meta Ray-Ban display. God damn it. Okay. I know. Whatever. You're wearing Meta's new smart glasses with a screen. We're going to talk much more about this in a future episode sometime in the next couple of weeks when you finish your review.

40:48But you've now been wearing these things for a little while. Give me 60 seconds. How are you feeling so far? It's very Gen 1. The hardware is impressive. But the software, they really need to get this API that they just opened up to third parties going. The neural band is surprisingly good. I actually think the neural band is kind of the most interesting thing about this. That's the thing. It's like you wear it on your wrist and use it to control. Yes, it's this little guy. Oh, it looks like a whoop. It just looks like a whoop. It does look like a whoop. It just looks very unobtrusive. Interesting.

41:24It does work if you have to wear another smartwatch, which I have taken off because it is embargoed. But like, it does work if you have another smartwatch on there, which I was like, oh, thank God I'm running out of body parts. Like, I have to test all of these things. And yeah, I can't just give up real estate on this wrist without, you know. So that was a relief to me personally. Yeah, it's interesting. I literally had to listen to a lecture from my spouse this morning about why they think these look terrible on me. So we'll get into that. Maybe the style section of my review is just a video of them going off for 30 minutes and you can choose to listen to it or not.

42:06it's it's it's a very intriguing product do i think the rollout was botched yes absolutely and i think people are going to be talking about it and for good reason there's a lot of meaty stuff to dig into but um is it the future we'll see we'll see yeah well we're gonna come back to it My read so far is that they look both like vastly better than almost anything we've seen and still kind of bad. They're in a like uncanny valley kind of situation of like, I look at those glasses and I don't clock them as glasses. I clock them as something else. You know what I mean? But you don't look at it like it's not it's obviously not like a vision pro, right?

42:52It's not like, oh, my God, what is that gadget on your face? but it's like you look at those and there's something just like slightly wrong with the pair of glasses V is wearing and it's throwing me. I think if you if you look at me in person like one-on-one like this you might feel that way but if I you know I was walking throughout New York City yesterday commuting to the office nobody looked at me twice. I believe so which is a huge deal like that is that is more the bar than almost anything else with a lot of these things. All right that's not what we're here to talk about. No. Again we're going to come back and talk about this because I have a thousand things I want to talk about about these, but that's for another time.

43:25I want to talk about Peloton because there was a lot of gadget news this fall. I found this big swing from Peloton as interesting as anything else that has come out. And I just want to talk through it. So I kind of left Peloton behind in my brain as like an interesting company, right? This is like, if you rewind five years, the pandemic happens, Peloton spikes like crazy, because lots of people suddenly want and need what it provides. Peloton's doing great. It becomes like culturally relevant because its instructors start to become famous. So Peloton like has a moment and then fades, right? And goes through a bunch of leadership changes and has huge hardware issues and pivots and pivots and changes and everything.

44:07And I just kind of like relegated Peloton to like a thing that will probably keep being around for a while, but has maybe jumped the shark and we'll never quite get it back. Then Peloton just comes out absolutely swinging for the fences with a bunch of new stuff and new ideas. So just sort of walk me through this like new generation of Peloton stuff that just launched before we get into what it all means. Like what is all of this stuff? So basically for the first time in Peloton's history, they have refreshed their entire product lineup. So there are two new bikes, two new treadmills and a new rower.

44:45And they basically were like, they got a little syringe, put a bunch of AI into that syringe and injected it into these products. There's something called Peloton IQ. And so the, oh God. Okay, so there's two tiers of products. There's the regular bike and the regular treadmill. Those do not have a camera in them, but everything else now has a handy dandy little swivel camera you can like. Plus means camera, right? It is like essentially the way I think about it. Okay. Yeah. Plus means camera. And this camera is basically like if you took the Peloton guide, which is what I would call their first bonafide hardware flop.

45:21It was a little, it kind of reminded me of the Microsoft Kinect. You stuck it on your TV and it looked like a little webcam and you did strength training exercises with it. And it would kind of analyze your form, not give you very much feedback. And so it was just like, all right, this is a thing. But now they've stuck that and they squished it into their existing products. And now it does give you feedback. The AI will look at you doing strength training exercises and be like, hey, girl, I think you need to go up in weights. Or, man, your form is really bad, so why don't you go down in weights so that you do that exercise better?

45:52So those are in those devices now. All of the devices, Plus and Non-Plus, have swivel screens. So you can just whip that screen around. So if you're not in a tiny space, you can just, like, fold out the screen and do your strength exercises, your yoga exercises, who's-y, what's-y, whatever. The Plus models, again, sorry to jump around, but the Plus models also now have a fan in them because Peloton fans are like, man, it sure does get hot when you're doing cardio. Like a fan for your face. I hear fan in like a gadget context. I'm like, oh, it's inside to keep the thing from overheating. It's to keep you from overheating.

46:27It's to keep you from overheating. Yeah, it's like on top of the display, there's like this, this can that where the camera's also built in. Like there's just this fan. It's adjustable speed. So when you're working out, you can cool down. There's a phone tray now. The bikes have a cushier seat, so it's more cushy for your tushy, which is what I wanted to write in my hands-on, but I was like, that's a little much. That's a headline. I don't know. We missed opportunity with the headline. Missed, yeah. So, you know, they've done a bunch of hardware updates. Oh, Sonos had a hand with the new speakers.

47:00The Plus models have a woofer now. So when the bass drops, Sonos has done the tuning and the equalizing for those. So I guess to ensure that the bass drop really hits when you're in your workout, sure, the entire interface has been changed around. You know, you can better integrate with your third party devices and services so that you can import all of your exercise data and the AI will be like, hmm, let me give you insights. So it's a lot. It's pretty much a total revamp of everything. Yeah. From a pure hardware perspective there, do you look at that and say, okay, Peloton is like trying hard to get all the people who bought a bike eight years ago or a treadmill five years ago and trying to get those people to buy a new one?

47:52Or is this like a swing at people who have never bought a Peloton before? I think it's both. I definitely, it confuses me a little bit though, because you would expect that if they want their existing customers to upgrade, that there would be some sort of trade-in program. But from what I've seen and from what Peloton diehards have been DMing me, that does not look to be the case. you can't just trade in your bike plus and get a new bike plus which I think is that's a bummer yeah um so that's kind of surprising I think because you know is Peloton these do not come cheap uh so that's strange but I really feel and like I went to this little keynote event that they had in New York City same day as the Amazon event so we're a lot of really tired tech journalists at this event.

48:43But, you know, they were saying this is a new era for Peloton. This is going to bust everything wide open. And, you know, I am a fitness AI hater. I'm just going to say it. I'm a hater. I've tested the Woops AI, the Whereas AI, all of these AI, Garmin, Strava, fucking sucks. It's regurgitated book reports. They're not particularly useful. The only ones that I've been mildly intrigued by are what Google's working on and is going to be rolling out sometime later this month on Fitbit, which is the AI coach that they have on there. And Peloton's is surprisingly, like, I got to see a demo of a fictional Peloton user named Amy and, like, the insights that she was getting from Peloton IQ, and I was like, okay, maybe we'll see because you know demos are such they're guardrails so you can't really get a real I mean I got a demo of these glasses and I was like whoa and now that I'm using them in real life I'm like ah now I find some problems and some issues so you know I saw the the demo and I was like okay these are the types of insights that athletes would want like if you're doing a strength training program and you're new to strength training and you're not really sure when you should go up in weights, this will tell you, like, hey, you've been doing chest presses at 25 pounds for two weeks.

50:12Next week, you should really be either upping the reps or upping your weight just so that you maintain progressive overload. That's genuinely useful versus an AI going like, you ran 35 miles and it was slightly slower than your average. Jesus Christ, thank you. I can also read my own metrics and come to that conclusion. Well, but that's the thing. So this is, I think, the trick and the challenge we've run into with a lot of these things is that what they give you is this incredibly basic feedback on an incredibly advanced device. Right. And I think like the stuff with Peloton for me and the thing I've been trying to figure out for years is whether Peloton is eventually going to go like way down market and start to be like, OK, actually, the bike is free and all you have to pay for is a subscription.

50:59And that's how Peloton gets like a whole new type of person to be a Peloton person. Or if it's going to go the other way and do the sort of like, you know, go after the Garmin people in the world who are like, no, I'm serious about this and I want tools that help me get more serious. And that gets more expensive. It does more stuff. And so my read of a lot of this announcement is it is like ramping up the seriousness for people who are already serious. Right. And these things got more expensive. They the subscription went up. There's more stuff. And so for me, it's like you got this demo of someone basically like doing bad form.

51:37I think you said they were doing overhead dumbbell presses. And it will like if you do comically bad form, it will it will tell you you're doing a bad job and do better. Fine. That to me is like the equivalent of an AR device that looks at a bag of nuts that says nuts in big letters and can tell me it's a bag of nuts. Like that's not nothing, but it's not much. What I need is the stuff that is vastly more nuanced and subtle. And it's like you're doing a pretty good job. Here's how you could be doing a really good job. Like that's what the people who are buying these things want and need. And that's the level that they're at.

52:12And I think it's just a much harder technology problem. And so I think you're right to be skeptical even of the demos because it's like, it's one thing to see me going like this and be like, that's not right. But if I'm like almost right and it tells me how to do it exactly right, like that's the actual stuff. And that's a way harder thing to do. It's very hard. And it's hard even if you have an in-person personal trainer. So that's – Right. That's what people pay a lot of money for. That's what people pay a lot of money for. It's an access thing because it is so much easier to do fitness if it's in your home.

52:48That's just true. If you are a beginner, I can see this being helpful in a lot of different ways. But again, the people who would be most interested in those features are not the beginners. So it's, they call it the cross-training series because on the one hand, you have your cardio device and your preferred method of indoor cardio. And so now you can cross-train and do other things and get this form feedback, which, you know, form feedback. I will say of all the exercise modality, strength training is the thing that stumps all the technology companies the most. it's really like ladder is the only strength training app that i really resonated with and did peloton steal everything for its strength training app from ladder yeah i don't know go to reddit people are having that conversation there yeah the general vibe on peloton's strength app is oh they just did ladder that's which is not not the wrong choice no ladder is great choice yeah ladder actually has helped me get into lifting a little bit more consistently than previous iterations have.

53:53That's great. But, you know, exercise is just such a weird thing because it's individual. What works for one person is absolutely not going to work for another person. There's no blanket prescription that you can give people. But that's so funny. That is like, that exact reason is why it makes perfect sense to me that this is a thing Peloton is doing, right? Because the first move is like, okay, how do we take the experience of a class and bring it home? And that worked super well, but it does have limitations, right? Where it's like, Like that by definition can't be responsive to me and what I need.

54:24And especially with strength training, that is really important, right? Like I always think about I would do the like Peloton yoga stuff on the ground next to the Peloton. And I would fall behind and just fall apart, right? Because like I suck at yoga. They're good at it. And they're doing this class for people who are good at it. And like what I need is something that actually is engaging with me in some sort of meaningful way. And so it's like, of course, that's the pitch here, right? Like, I can absolutely see why Peloton is after this. And there are a bunch of reasons it actually seems like if anybody can do it well, it ought to be Peloton.

54:59It does have access to the hardware, all the stuff you're talking about. Like, I think the camera is really fascinating. The swivel screen is really interesting. There's just, it has all this historical data on people and me specifically, but also just like people in the aggregate. Like, there are a lot of reasons if someone can pull this off that it might be Peloton. Am I crazy? Like, am I giving Peloton way too much credit here? No, no. Like, I talked to their chief product officer, Nick Caldwell, at the event. And, you know, he said a couple of really interesting things. Just, you know, their AI is built on ChatGPT and Llama in part, but also it's trained on their thousands of classes, like a lot of thousands of data points.

55:39And the AI is integrated in ways beyond just how you're interacting with it because it's also in the sense of how they surface classes to you. So based on what you need, they're like, well, how do we help you find a class that actually helps you in our library of thousands of classes? That's a pain point, too, because it's great that they have thousands of classes. But if, you know, if you're on Peloton and you're just trying to find something that'll work for you, an instructor that you like, because instructor personalities can be, you know, not every instructor you're going to jive with. I really can't stand the ones that are just like, hey, girl, you got this and all that.

56:14And I'm just like, no, I'm suffering. Please don't try and encourage me. But so, you know, like the AI is also supposed to help you surface a class that you might actually resonate with and might, you know, there's a new thing that pops up that tells you if your current effort levels match with that class. Like this class might be harder for you than normal is what will pop up when you're browsing. So there's that. I actually think that's way more interesting than the form correction, but that's just me. Fair. There's new stuff where you can generate your own workouts that are Sam's instructors that you can take at your own pace and moves that you want.

56:51So, like, they're doing a bunch of different things to appeal to a bunch of different people. So, they're kind of very thoughtful and smart about how they're going about it in a way that it doesn't feel fully just like, here's AI, let's staple it onto the product, which is what most fitness AI has felt like. So I do think if anyone's going to do it, it is probably them because they are very clued into their diehard fan base. Like a lot of the new hardware upgrades are things that people have been yelling at them to fix for a long time. So they are listening to their core constituency. Do you think their core constituency was also like spending a lot of time saying, God, I wish this was all way more expensive?

57:32You know. Do you feel like that was a bunch of Peloton people being like, you don't have enough of my money. Do you want more of my money, Peloton? So I find Peloton diehards like a fascinating group of people. So, you know, I know R.I.P. Jane Goodall, but I consider myself the Jane Goodall of Peloton diehards. I spent some time just in their official groups and on Reddit just reading what they have to say about stuff. Because I did a feature last year where I talked to a dozen Peloton diehards. And you know what? The vast majority of them told me that the hardware was integral to their experience.

58:10And I was just so shocked by that. Because most people I talk to are like, oh my God, it's so expensive. Why not just buy a$500 version and with a tablet holder? Bada bing, bada boom. Well, there was a really sort of obvious future for Peloton after this like post-pandemic slump that was like, stop being a hardware company. You have a software and like you're a media company. Like go be an exercise class company and let me run that on any treadmill that exists. Like make an API that plugs into every other treadmill. Go to the gym. Like it becomes like an exercise as a service company. And I have actually been surprised to not see Peloton go more in that direction.

58:50But it sounds like that's just because I'm not talking to enough Peloton people that maybe the hardware is more of a thing. Specific. There's like grades of Peloton people. There's like people who are like, I've heard of it. Sure. That's the one where the guy died in Sex and the City. And you're like, yes, that, yes. So that's that level of Peloton awareness. And there's the people who are like the spouses of Peloton diehards who are just like, yeah, person I live with, they do Peloton and I don't get it. But sometimes I use their equipment and yeah, I guess it's nice. and then you have the peloton diehards and like they are a unique group of people i find them fascinating and um you know when i talk to them they're like they're talking in such tones where i don't want to call them culty but it's not not culty where they're like um you know they also will positively call themselves cult members so i'm not trying to be derogative here uh uh but They are like, Jess King helped me get through a really tough period of my life.

59:50And I'm just like, okay, cool. Yes. Who are the instructors you like? And it's very interesting to see who they pick and why and how it relates to their personality. And those people, for sure, are always like, yeah, I'm thinking about how I can upgrade. And it doesn't matter to me how much it costs because it's just so high quality. And so, you know, to us normies, just looking at them going, you're really going to pay$6.7 ,000 for a fucking treadmill? To them, they're just like, this tool fits into my life. It is my life. And I don't see this as a ridiculous cost because I use this treadmill every day.

1:00:34And, you know, it's my life has changed this this this thing. I used to be depressed and sad. And now look at me. I'm running 46 marathons. And I'm like, that's just a different kind of depressed and sad to me personally. No, I love that for you. Physically healthier. So go for it. Physically healthier. I am concerned because marathons are so. I know I've talked to people who have trained for whole marathons on a treadmill, on a Peloton treadmill. And I'm like, how? I can't do more than three miles on a treadmill because I lose my mind. It's so boring. I can do I can run hours outside. I love that.

1:01:13But like the treadmill, three hours of running. I'm like, how? And, you know, one of the people I interviewed, she was just like this bubbly, enthusiastic, lovely lady. and she was like, yeah, when I ran my marathon, I had the Peloton app and the outdoor classes just going on a loop and that's what got me through my marathon outdoors. I was like, you brought Peloton to the marathon? Holy crap. That is such a telling thing in so many directions that that is the response. That's so interesting. So, okay, so that must mean you look at these prices because like I look at these prices and see them as sort of shocking.

1:01:50Like Travis, our producer, went through and did the shockingly difficult work of figuring out how these prices have changed over time. And it's kind of nuts. So like, just to give you one example, the Tread Plus, which is the like high-end treadmill, launched in 2018 and it was$4 ,295, which was a ton. And we talked a lot about how expensive it was. And then in 2023, it jumped to$5 ,995, which is more, just in case you're wondering. And then now is$6 ,695. dollars uh and that is that is just what the tread plus costs the tread has gone up uh it went down a little bit then up again it's more expensive than ever the row plus is more expensive than ever the subscription continues to go up it's not like everything else is getting cheaper but like maybe it just is true that this is a group of people who are not super price conscious and the idea of you know i'm pitting this against an equinox membership or like two sessions a week with a personal trainer.

1:02:51And so it's actually not expensive in that context. But like, when you look at these prices, what does it make you think Peloton is doing here? I'm just like, $6 ,700 for a treadmill. Running outside is free. That's me though, right? Like, I - To be fair, running outside is awful. And you can't watch The Office while you run outside. So like, I would pay a lot to be able to watch The Office while I run indoors. but again this is like different not sixty seven hundred dollars yeah this is different people different preferences right i cannot i've tried watching k-dramas and uh my straight kids videos on treadmills i can't do it i can't do it for more than 20 minutes i thought i was a terrible runner for years because i just could not do it outside i can run for three hours and it's just me my thoughts and k-pop that's so funny i am the exact opposite i yeah so the best gym trick i ever discovered, and everyone should try this if you have trouble making yourself go to the gym, was I found a TV show that I loved and I was only allowed to watch it at the gym.

1:03:55I tried that. And so I burned through like seasons upon seasons running on the treadmill at the Y, because that was just, I was just like, I want to watch the show. So I'm going to go and watch it on the treadmill. And then literally it's, it's a like third of a mile from here to the gym. and that run is so boring that I didn't want to do it. I would drive to the gym and run on the treadmill. Like a true maniac stuff. But yeah, it's just people are different. I've tried doing that. It does not work for me. So that's such the challenge that they have. You're like my dad who ran a marathon with no headphones and I still think that's like true psychotic behavior.

1:04:34That's the most psychotic. But I still need the headphones. I still need my Beats. I need my little K-pop boys singing whatever. I need that. But, you know, I've listened in to Peloton earnings dutifully every quarter. And when they upped the price to about$6 ,000, I was like, ha ha! Woo! And then the next quarter, they're like, oh, yeah, and we sold out of all of the stock that we had for$6 ,000. And I was like, how? So every earnings, they're like, Tread Plus, the most expensive product in their portfolio. it sells like gangbusters and I'm like how that's the one where the kids died how do you do this and and the people who love them love them um I believe it was business insider um back when like the height of that controversy was happening they were like interviewing people who are like yeah I fell down and it threw me through a wall never giving it up and it's just like these people it resonates with them in such a way and it creates such a degree of loyalty that i'm just like oh my god and you know historically their churn is a little higher than it used to be but it's still not that much higher than like one 1.5 so these people really stick with it which is like crazy low it's crazy low for a churn rate of of subscribers and when we talk about Peloton churn subscribers being high, it's like 2%, which is so low if you really think about it in the scale of things.

1:06:05But, you know, whether or not this opens a new chapter for them, I don't know, because their previous CEO, Barry McCarthy, who I absolutely loved because he always had unhinged quotes in the investor shareholder letter. The one time he's like, this is a cargo ship and we're halfway through the Mediterranean. I was like, what is happening here? But he very much. He very much went. The reason why the prices are like so hard to track over time was because he was doing a lot of experimenting with the prices and with the theory that this is a media company and we are going to be futzing around with hardware prices.

1:06:40We're going to see what sticks. We're going to introduce a rental program. What's happening? He did a lot of that. And the numbers went up. Like, actually, you know, I tune into these things and the numbers have been going up for some time, even though it's not pandemic levels of high, in which case I go, you know, investors, does everything have to be on a constant state of growth trajectory? Like, what if it's just fine being a midsize company? What if? What if? And the investors are always like, no, you must go to pandemic levels again. And it's like, I don't know. So last question on this, and then we should take a break.

1:07:14I think, thinking about these Peloton people, like the stuff that you hear them talk about all the time is a like you're like we've been talking about the hardware is is a hugely important part of it people love the classes people love the instructors people love the sort of real-time competition of it there is this sense that you're like part of a community even though you're inside of your house can you if you're a peloton can you do the ai thing in a way that doesn't ruin that like thinking about what you know about all of these peloton people is this idea of everything being super individualized and personalized but also in a certain way sort of depersonalized that it's not going to feel as though you're in a live class full of people.

1:07:53It's going to feel like an AI is coaching you on how to do things. Is that going to be compelling to those people? So I think they've been very thoughtful about that because when I went to this event, and this is just going to be another description of the Peloton energy, I go into this event and what do they do? First of all, they don't introduce the CEO first. No, no, no. He's an afterthought they go we have tunday we have adrian williams and i'm sorry i forgot the third name of the uh uh instructor that was there the instructors come out and they are like clapping people's hands in the audience and like they're you know and i'm just like i don't know who most of these people are but every single time i've gone to a peloton event they have brought out an instructor and the instructor is there and they have actually put a big hand into how this peloton iq has been crafted.

1:08:44So, you know, I had my demo and my demo was with Tunde, who is a cycling instructor, I believe. And she was just like, it's like, it's my assistant. The AI is my assistant. I have helped craft these recommendations. We have had a huge say in like what it tells you. So, you know, you're going to listen to me, you're coming for me, and this is just going to help you out. It's going to be my little helper. It's like, she's like, I'm the professor and this is my teaching assistant. And I was like, that's a very interesting distinction that they're making there. And I think that could work because if they're messaging that correctly, you know, I think the diehards will be like, oh, yeah, Tunde is my professor and this is my teaching assistant.

1:09:27Love you, Peloton IQ. But we'll have to see. I'm in the communities. I do be lurking. And some of them are like, AI, slop, get this shit out of here. So, So, you know, we'll see how it shakes out over time. I think they kind of stepped in it by not having an upgrade program for those people because, you know, if you're a really loyal diehard, you want to be rewarded for that loyalty. So I think some of them feel a little betrayed by that, to be honest. But we'll see. We'll see how it goes. I remain an AI and fitness hater and skeptic until proven otherwise. Again, like if anybody gets it, I think there's a solid chance that it's Peloton.

1:10:07But also everything you just said about the relationship between person and AI is the thing every company says six months before being like, we've created a new AI instructor. Her name is Kim and she is the only instructor on the platform forever. And everything just immediately goes to hell, right? Like, you can just see the path towards here is a new instructor. This is the future of Peloton. It's blobby. It's like, I actually think you missed it, Peloton. It's blurbo, which is my name for all AI friends and companions and whatever. But if they can not do that and actually make this thing like a tool and not a character, I think there's something really powerful there.

1:10:51Yeah, it's just, are the insights good? that's going to be the number one. That's the number one question. If they can't nail that, I'm just going to add it to my AI fitness wall of shame. If you need somebody to really earnestly be bad at exercise, I'm here for you. So just let me know. I got your back. I can't test five of these equipment. My house is not big enough for that. So this might have to be a team effort anyway. I'm in. I'm here for you. I got room in the basement. I'll get rid of the couch. I'll put in three treadmills and we'll go to work. They're really big treadmills. They're really big.

1:11:26One treadmill. One treadmill, yeah. All right, we need to take a break, but will you stick around? I have a hotline question for you. Yeah. All right, cool. We'll be right back. Every day, millions of customers engage with AI agents like me. We resolve queries fast. We work 24-7 and we're helpful, knowledgeable, and empathetic. We're built to be the voice of the brands we serve. Sierra is the platform for building better, more human customer experiences with AI. No hold music, no generic answers, no frustration. Visit sierra.ai to learn more.

1:12:05Avoiding your unfinished home projects because you're not sure where to start? Thumbtack knows homes, so you don't have to. Don't know the difference between matte paint finish and satin? Or what that clunking sound from your dryer is? With Thumbtack, you don't have to be a home pro. You just have to hire one. You can hire top-rated pros, see price estimates, and read reviews all on the app. Download today. Every great company's story is defined by moments when their founders make bold decisions. These are high-stakes moments that risk the business, but can lead to greatness. I'm Muriloff Boota, managing partner of Sequoia Capital and the host of Crucible Moments.

1:12:49We're returning for a brand new season. Join us as leaders from Stripe, Zipline, Palo Alto Networks, Klarna, Supercell, and more. Share what it's actually like to navigate the make or break decisions. Crucible Moments is back on October 23rd. Until then, catch up on seasons one and two wherever you find your podcasts.

1:13:19All right, we're back. V song still here. Hi, V. Hey. So let's do a question for the Vergecast hotline. We get lots of them that are like specifically directed to a specific person. And we have one for you today. Oh, I love it. As always, you can call 866-VERGE-11. You can email Vergecast to theverge.com. There's been like a million gadgets. So send us gadget questions. I think we're also going to do a smart home hotline episode here at some point in the near future. So send us all of your questions. For now, V, let's get at it. This one's for you. Hi, Vergecast crew. This is a powerlifter and a new runner.

1:13:52This is a question probably best answered by Vsong. For the longest time, I've been using my Apple Watch in combination with the Strong app to track my lifts. I've been a powerlifter for many years and would focus on big compound lifts with some accessories. Recently, I've picked up running and mostly track it with Strava. A lot of my running friends have repeatedly told me to get a Garmin for the better battery life and overall better smart tracking for running. I've been using an Apple Watch Series 6 since release and replaced the battery last year, and it's already draining fast. My dilemma is I've adopted a hybrid plan that incorporates running with my main traditional strength training lifts that I track with the Strong app, and nothing online shows that that app is compatible with Garmin watches.

1:14:37I was wondering if you had any advice on maybe potentially repping two smartwatches, one for lifts and one for runs, or if I should just commit to one. If so, which? Appreciate any help and rock on. V, you can see why I picked this for you, right? Like our caller didn't give their name, but if ever there is someone who feels our caller's pain, it's you. Yeah. Well, welcome to my world, caller. Because I've lived both of those lives. What I will say is that the double-wristing life is difficult because— So the crux of the problem here is the fact that fitness data is messy, right? Lots of people use Strava because it is a de facto hub where you can import your data from disparate devices and it lives in one place because that's just how it goes.

1:15:30It integrates with everything. Everyone uses Strava. Love it. So bad news. Strava sued Garmin last week. Oh, no. and is asking Garmin to stop selling all of its devices. So there's beef between these two companies. As a new runner, what I'm going to say is that Garmin, I love Garmin. Garmin fans are really diehard, so don't come for me. Garmin is overwhelming in terms of the running data for a beginner. Because when you are a beginner and you are just running for the first time, it's about good form. it's about um just kind of increasing your time on the road doing it safely making sure you're cross training and all that sort of stuff and just really kind of finding your rhythm for for running and um you know is vertical oscillation data going to help you do that or is it going to like confuse you further um that's that's what i would say i do enjoy garmin i think it's very complicated to kind of get into the Garmin in-depth data.

1:16:39It's not knocking them at all. I find it very useful, but Apple has made some updates that are for beginners, I think are pretty compelling. Like they've added training load, so it kind of helps you visualize whether you're doing too much or how your levels are doing. So what I would say is, since you're a beginner, just find out if you like running first. And if you really love running, eventually you will naturally gravitate towards the Garmin just because the features there really are catered towards runners. They're really great. I, you know, if it were up to me and I was just using a watch for running, I would pick a Garmin.

1:17:20I would probably pick one of the Forerunner garments because they're not gigantic and they fit well and they're like really suited towards that. But just like hold for a second because that's a lot of gear that we're talking about you having in one space. And as much as possible, I do recommend streamlining your data streams just because, look, I'm psycho. I have this notebook and this notebook literally is where I log all of my disparate fitness data and baselines because I have not found a good digital way of doing it for testing. I spend like 40 minutes after each workout just comparing data points.

1:18:02Like you don't want to be me and doing that. So like this is reviewer problems, though, because I am testing multiple products. I do have to live this multiple life. And so why would you why would you do this to yourself, friend? If you are going to go the Garmin route, you can track reps and workouts within Garmin. Is it going to be as good as Strong? I'm not sure because, you know, all of my power lifter friends are very into Strong and that app. So you are running into the problem of how, you know, much like the smart home, there's all these different silos of data that people have. The main thing is to find what works best for you that you will stick with.

1:18:46If strong is something that you really love and has really helped you in your powerlifting life, don't ditch it just because you're running friends are saying that you should go into Garmin. I personally do not like the Garmin strength training tracking because it does not give me enough time to edit my weights and my reps and it throws me out. Yeah, it sounds like our caller doesn't like it either. Yeah, I don't love it. I'll be quite frank about that. So if you find that you love strong on the Apple Watch, I don't know, maybe you upgrade to an Ultra and see how that does for you. This is what I was just about to say.

1:19:24Why is the Watch Ultra not the perfect, like, jack-of-all-trades version of the answer here? Okay, so, you know, the outdoor running crowd in Garmin, and they have a lot of really valid points here, is battery life. A Garmin is measured in weeks. It's measured in months. I have the Ultra 3 here. I'm still reviewing it. That'll be out soon. But, you know, I've got 72 hours out of it, which is great. not if you are running lots of marathons doing a lot of hikes doing a lot of cross training it's still a lot of charging management that you have to do and that's that's not for the garment crowd that that's not what they want um there are certain like metrics that i think the longer you go into endurance sports the longer you are in outdoor sports they are useful i like the hill and the hill endurance score when i was training for a half marathon i found um i think it's called the endurance score.

1:20:17It just basically tracks like how tired you are throughout a run and whether you're exerting a certain amount of energy. I did find that helpful. It did kind of visualize for me whether or not I was going to make it to the end of my first half marathon. I did. It was great. It was not. I suffered immensely. But, you know, I trained for my half marathons with garments and I found some of the more in-depth metrics at that point in time once I learned how to read them because you do have to sit there and you do have to like digest that information. I did find it helpful for me, but that was when I had kind of gotten to a level where I was running half marathons and we're talking about thinking about fueling and what those, you can get fueling reminders on your Garmin.

1:21:00You know, when you're at that level, that can be really useful and helpful and it helps you pare down what you're using. There's a reason why so many high-level runners use garments. But if powerlifting is your main focus and running is cross-training for you, do what your main modality of exercise, prioritize that. Because the Apple Watch, it's decent at running for a casual runner. Like if you were just doing 10Ks or less, you don't really need, you don't need everything that a Garmin is going to give you. If you're a thru-hiker, if you decide that you are going to make it like Liz Lopato and Ruck and do all that sort of stuff, yeah, no, Garmin makes way more sense for you.

1:21:48It's just, yeah, don't live the double wrist life. It's expensive. You get double watch tans. I do it because I'm paid to do this. I don't think you should, I don't think any normal person should live this life. I may be biased saying that. But it does sound like, largely, unfortunately, as a function of the way that these devices platforms work. If this person is going to get into running at the same level, it sounds like they're currently into powerlifting, they are going to end up with two devices. I think your advice to do the casual thing on the Apple Watch as long as you can is really good advice.

1:22:25But it does sound like if you're going to get to a 9 or 10 out of 10 on the commitment scale, you're going to end up with two devices. You're going to end up living my life, in which case, welcome, friend. And also, I'm sorry. But yeah, stay on a single device as long as you possibly can, because managing the data streams becomes a second full-time unpaid job. Yeah, I think that's good advice. And then after that, then you get a smart ring, and then you start running stuff around your neck, and then you come work at The Verge. I think it's like literally that's essentially, there's just a certain number of devices that happens, and then Neelai shows up at your house and offers you a job.

1:22:59I think it's like basically how it works. That's honestly my career trajectory. That's what happened. I was just living my life as a freaking cyborg. And then I got a knock on the door and the verge was like, hey, we need a wearables person. I was like, YOLO, let's go. I have all of them. Let's do this. And now look at me. Now look at me. Do you want to be like me, caller? No, no, you don't. I only have one face and so many smart glasses that need to. Yeah. Yeah. This is what we do here. It's no one should live our pain, but too many people are forced to is I think what we're realizing. Is this optimal?

1:23:35I don't think so. All right. If you're wearing more gadgets than V, send us an email. I want pictures of people who are wearing more gadgets than V. These aren't all the ones I even wear. Some are embargoed and some are on parts of the body that, you know, that's not going to fit in this camera view. Don't live my life. That's good advice. All right, V, thank you as always. We'll see you next time. See you next time. All right. That is it for the show this week. Thank you to everybody who came on and thank you as always for listening. Thank you, by the way, to everybody who reached out about version history.

1:24:07I hope you enjoyed the first episode about hoverboards that was on the Verge's YouTube channel on the version history feed and on the Verge cast feed. So hopefully you encountered it somewhere. We're really proud of the show. It's been really fun to make, but please keep sending us ideas. I want episode ideas. I want ideas about the version history questions and how we can do those better. We have some ideas for the next series of these episodes. Please keep all your ideas coming. I want to make lots of this show. I think it's going to be great. And I want to keep hearing all of your thoughts about everything that we're up to.

1:24:36For now, we're going to get out of here. The Verge Cast is a Verge production and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. The show is produced by Eric Gomez, Brandon Kiefer, and Travis Larchuk. We will be back on Friday to talk about more news. We may or may not have a very fun person who's coming back on the show. I'm not 100 % sure, but I'm like pretty sure. And I'm very excited about it. We got a lot to do. We'll see you then. Rock and roll.

1:25:03And Doug. Here we have the Lemu Emu in its natural habitat, helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug. Uh, Lemu? Is that guy with the binoculars watching us? Cut the camera. They see us. Only pay for what you need at libertymutual.com. Liberty, Liberty, Liberty, Liberty. Savings vary. Underwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company and affiliates. Excludes Massachusetts.