Tech in 2025: who's in and who's out

24:45Every one of these episodes. He's Aaron Sorkin, not coastal elite. I love it. It's good. But they're done. That deal will go away. That's not going to drive enough steps for them. I really love Max. That's my contribution here. Oh, I should have picked Max. To Die? To Die. Yeah. I think one of Max and Paramount Plus is going to be gone. I don't know which one it is. There's going to be some... Max has to be doing pretty good. Because they're being run so well by Warner Brothers Discovery? Yeah, that's going great. They have decent programming on there. What do you watch on Max? I just watched all of Industry.

25:24Sure, okay. Industry is solid. People like that show. yeah gen z succession they go on one show hacks hacks is good hacks i think we watch paw patrol through max maybe not it sucks that my kid is named max yeah it does joanna just calls max and says describe we also watched jurassic park on there did your kids have a crush on chase the max had a like a baby crush like chase was her favorite dog on paw patrol and I was like, why did you pick the cop? Like, why not? There's a water dog. Alex does like, no, I think he really likes rubble. Yeah, rubble's great. Rubble's great. He fixes stuff. Do we watch it through Max?

26:08Cop dog. See, I would argue this might not be the great case for Max that you think it is. Don't watch that on Max. I'll be honest. We had Peacock for the Olympics. Don't have it anymore. Paramount, don't have it anymore. Oh, this is my other prediction. They will all solve this problem by not letting you churn as hard as you can churn right now. That I believe. That I will put a lot on. That's a really good one. But yet there was just that – like there's – was it – what's the legislation that just happened that makes – you have to make it – Yeah. So how are they going to get around that? That's going away in the Trump administration.

26:41A federal agency doing stuff? Yeah. That's all over now. Yeah. Especially because Lena Kahn did it. All right. We're all saying yes to that one, right? We're all on that one. One of the three. You don't have to pick one. One or more of the three is gone. Yeah. Again, my time travel is you lose some stuff. It's hard to remember everything in the time travel. Netflix is killing it in live TV and is already the biggest thing in life. No. No. Disclosure. You already know. We did that. Disclosure. How long ago did that show? How long do you have any years? Do you have to say that? Forever. Since it's on there?

27:16It's going to be on there forever. Video on demand. Yeah, I didn't even get paid for it. This is like the funniest part of this. It was not even a conflict of interest. I just did the thing. Do I have to have a disclosure that I talked to you when you were doing working on that show? If you want to. If everyone would like to remind everyone else that I made a Netflix show, that's great for me personally. Disclosure, I spoke to Neelai when he was working on his Netflix show. And I also talked to him when he had Comcast. Well, you're clearly in somebody's pocket. I don't know who it is. If I had Comcast, you mean the service in Chicago?

27:45You still have Comcast? No, there's no Comcast out here. What do you have? Xfinity? isn't it do I have to say disclosure I have Fios and it rules wired internet is better than wireless internet disclosure I also have Fios well I have Ting let's go we're conflicted out Ting maybe alright next one we're all saying no on that one yeah we're good okay they have a long way to go yeah Jake Paul needs to fight somebody else they have a big test Christmas this Christmas I reserve the right to revise this after the NFL on Christmas on Netflix but I don't think they're right Netflix certainly has the money to do it, but it's harder work than anybody thinks.

28:24Grand Theft Auto launched. Grand Theft Auto 6, rather. Grand Theft Auto 6 launched, and it is the single most successful game in history, and has basically changed the video game industry all by itself. That's too many ideas. So I say yes to launch. Grand Theft Auto 6 is the prince that was promised. Yeah. That's too many ideas. It launches. It launches. It makes a bunch of money. Agreed. Okay. everyone else has already tried to do the big game as a service thing what was the Sony one that just failed conquered yeah everyone just wanted to do Fortnite and it like didn't work you need to have the big property that can support it Grand Theft Auto is one of those properties changes the game I think everyone's going to be like man I wish we'd invented Grand Theft Auto and they will continue not investing money into these things that fail but you think Grand Theft Auto on its own big hit it's going to work yeah I mean assuming it's not a disaster but I think a lot of people are going to buy it this is the prediction we have to make here I mean the reason I put this in is that we have had a long run of huge expensive games that haven't worked for one reason or another and if that happens to GTA 6 it's going to be a disaster this is the most hyped game in forever and it has been around for forever it has like loomed over the gaming industry for years and if it doesn't hit and it's not as good and big and exciting and cool and groundbreaking, like GTA V is still a wildly successful game.

29:54If GTA VI flops... Chris Grant, who is our publisher and the founder of Polygon is always showing me this chart that's like the highest grossing games in the world and they're all over like seven years old. Yeah. They're all very old because they've all just turned into these places where people hang out. So GTA VI has a long road. It does. Like Cyberpunk 2770 came out and it didn't work and then networks and everyone loves it. But a lot of heads rolled in the meantime. Yeah. All right, I'm in on this one. Sounds like you are too. I have no idea what you're talking about. Joanna's just a big question mark.

30:26Okay, a few more. It's the end of 2025 and folding phones are completely mainstream now. Unless Apple's releasing one and they're not. So no. You don't think they are? One of the other ones I was going to put is... In 2025? I don't think so. I think it's actually very funny that Apple thought it could drive a super cycle with AI. And really it just needs to make the phone fold over. And that would be the thing. Yeah, well, 100 % drive a super cycle. What if I changed it to Apple released a foldable iPhone or iPad? Apple released a foldable something in 2025. The displays aren't good. They release a foldable MacBook, which is just a MacBook.

31:03It's a laptop. But it's a MacBook you can scrunch up into your pocket. It's just like that. But it has a better chip. They're foldable for the year. All right, so you're out on foldable phones going mainstream. I think they will go mainstream once Apple has one. But you don't think it's next year? No. Okay. Nei? No, not next year. Yeah, I'm out too. I think it's coming. Yeah, I think 2026 was one. Foldable phones and flip phones, which I all collapsed into folding phones, are going to happen. Yeah. They're getting better. I see them a lot now. Okay. The Pixel 10 is by far the best and most successful Android phone.

31:45What is success? How is best measured? I'll just land on best. It is by far the best Android phone. How is best measured? You are a product reviewer. Yeah, right? You are the lead product reviewer of the Wall Street Journal. How is it measured? Are you having this existential debate about what's a good phone? What do you think a good phone is? Best? Fine. I think we've all agreed that it's been the best Android phone for a long time. Wait, are we agreed on that? I mean... go on. I will say I do not think Samsung has, other than some hardware improvements, I do not think they've had substantial improvements to their phones.

32:24And I think they lean very heavily on their relationship with Google to do all the work. And yeah, like at this point, like nobody - You don't think the Galaxy Fold is better than the Pixel Fold? Yeah, I guess on Foldables, I would say they've done a better job on the hardware and they're fine. But I guess I'm talking about like flagship phones that continue to be the most popular. Yeah. That is always going to be Samsung. They're going to, sorry, and I say this by sales. Samsung will continue to sell more phones, whether they have the best one or they don't. And that's just been the story of Android for how many years?

33:01All of them. Is that going to change in 2020, 2025? Do you think right now that Pixel is a better phone than whatever Galaxy?

33:11i i prefer i will always prefer the software experience of the pixel i just do yeah i i don't disagree with yeah yeah so i mean like you know i don't know the like can it the galaxy take slightly better photos in my last testing like two years ago i don't know like did that change you guys tell me no i haven't done camera testing of the pixel and the samsung in probably two years At this point, they are all on top of each other. Right. So I come down on, okay, there's a great software experience on the Pixel. And people, they gained one point of market share, I believe, this year. Well, they also, Google can't try very hard.

33:57Well, maybe they'll break them up. This is a real problem for them, right? They can't piss off Samsung. Right. So I guess that's where I was like, success and best. Like, sure, it's the best. But you first said success, which you changed. Wait, read your thing again. If we want to just, I originally said best and most successful. But if we want to split hairs, we can do one and the other. I think those are very different things. Yeah. Well, yeah, they are different things. But I'm telling you both happened in 2025. Oh, then that's a hard no. If it's both, absolutely not. That's what I'm saying.

34:28Okay. Okay. All right. Will it remain the best one? Yeah. How do I write that in my notes about what you guys said? All right. Yeah, I think we're all nos on that one. I mean, but what is the most exciting thing that's going to happen in smartphones in the next year? What are we all going to be excited about when Samsung comes out with the Galaxy S? Ostensibly, it's AI. And is that something we're going to get excited about? No. Bluetooth 6. Bluetooth is AI. I've come full circle. All right, let's do a couple more. Joanna, you have to leave here in a minute. Let's do a couple more. Apple is actually making a television.

35:04It's official. There's been rumored again recently. Yeah. They've been making the television. It's real this time. Apple is going to sell you a television. Not in 2025, but I think that the rumors on this will heat up. Apple is out of markets. This is a real problem. They don't make enough stuff. It's weird that they don't make enough stuff. The longer I wrote this one down originally as kind of a joke, and the longer I think about it, the more I want to say yes. But this year? Yeah, I think it's possible. I mean, it's not, like, hard to do. Yeah, TV is great. Like, at the end of the day, they got to buy an OLED panel from Samsung.

35:39They got to glue an Apple TV to the back of it, and they got to be like,$6 ,000? And they got to make some nice frames to put around it. It's weird because the thing you're saying about cable television dying and all this other stuff, like, runs against Apple doing a TV. Yes. It's a real problem. I think they might have missed the window on doing this. Unless Apple thinks there's a giant ads business in being a TV. or an extension of their services business. Sure. But they were chasing other huge iPhone-sized markets, and the only ones they could identify were healthcare and cars, and they got run out of cars because it's too hard.

36:13I don't know what they're going to do in healthcare over time. But if the home, which seems to be this big place, they're going to focus some of the effort this year, and they do this home tablet sometime this spring, seems like something between an iPad and an Apple TV type of thing. Yeah. In terms of, like, software, right? They got to put another screen in your house. They got to find a way to charge you money. So let's say they put another screen in your house that's home-based. Is it a TV this year or is it this like tablet? No, they're going to do this little thing first. Right. So I don't know if – I think this TV thing is, to your point, like they've got to go to other markets.

36:45This makes sense. They can finally say, hey, we've got it all integrated. It's just one cord into the wall. Like, great. Yeah. But then does that happen this year? I'm saying yes. I don't think it happens this year. No. I'm in on it. I think we're going to hear a lot about it this year. They're going to feel that. Just like Apple making a TV. Like reports. Yeah, we're going to hear a lot of noise about this. Mark Roman is going to be very busy talking about this. Does an Apple TV have HDMI ports? No. Well, then what are all the people with PSY is going to do? They're not. So you're going to make it a TV that just excludes?

37:18No, it'll have HDMI ports. Do you think so? This is complicated. It immediately makes it complicated. See, I think that's what they've wanted to do, is to like one port, like it just plugs in. But again, if you're doing the home stuff you're talking about, you could sell me a bunch of new screens or you could take advantage of the big screen that sits in the middle of everyone's house and is like this. Jen Tui on our team keeps railing on this like the TV is the center of the smart home. It is. It is ridiculous that no one has solved this yet. I love when my garage door opens and I see a little alert on my TV that says garage door open.

37:53And it's two o 'clock in the morning and you didn't do that on purpose. And here we are. All right. Last one. And then, Joanna, you're going to go. What do I want to do last? Waymo's self-driving cars are now everywhere in New York City. No. I just interviewed the CEO. No. But they will be, like, in a lot of other cities. Okay. I pick New York specifically because it is probably the highest bar to clear. New York, they are working on, but it's not yet. New York also has the weather issue. The last time I talked to Kedra, I was like, can you get this thing in Aspen, Colorado? And she's like, no.

38:32Right. She's like, no. We can't solve that problem yet. Weather is too hard. And New York has enough weather where I think it's too hard. That's true. They're testing here, apparently. They are. There's aspects of New York that make it simpler. Totally. It's a big grid. You can just solve that problem. But there's two feet of snow on the ground. It's real dicey. there's not bike lanes. I think New York's really challenging. No, I'm saying there are aspects of New York that make it simpler than LA or whatever, right? See, I think like Brooklyn makes a lot of sense. Just like no laws in Brooklyn.

39:04No laws in Brooklyn. But like you go down Manhattan, it's going to be tough for them. But whether, there's a lot of reasons I think no, but I think we're going to, I think that 2025 is the year that met, I don't want to say most people, a lot of people will go in Waymos for their first time. And you will see tons of it on social media. It's going to have its moment. Yeah, it's going to have its moment. Okay. Because like I was in LA last week and everyone who was in LA was trying it. It was like a total viral thing. So it's coming to Austin, Phoenix. They're already in San Francisco. They're working on getting on highways.

39:41It's already in LA. They expanded. People are going to talk about it when they go to these cities. I like this one. I'm changing this to Waymo is going to have its moment. Waymo has a real problem, though, because their platform is the Jaguar I-Pace. And Jaguar has decided to just be an influencer company now or whatever it is. They need a new car. They have Hyundai. Oh, Hyundai's coming on. Yep. Hyundai's coming this year. All right. I love Waymo. There you go. I'm out on this one. I think. And I think Zoox is doing some stuff this year, too. I think the momentum here is really good. And Tesla has a fake RoboTax.

40:16Oh, yes, right. The fake RoboTax. It's real. You can look at it in a store and it doesn't move. I don't know what you're talking about. Are you in on this one, Eli? Yeah. Anyway, Waymo's due. I'm out on this one only because I've been burned by being in on this one so many times over the last decade. This is the year. All right. We'll see. All right. We got to take one more break. Then we're going to come back. We're going to rapid fire through the rest of these and we're going to get out of here. Sound good? Mm-hmm. All right. On it. Lauren and Zoe. Jeff Bridges, why are you still living above our garage?

40:42I want to be in a T-Mobile commercial like you. Teach me, Sildana. I couldn't possibly. At T-Mobile, get the new iPhone 17 Pro on them. It's designed to be the most powerful iPhone yet and has the ultimate pro camera system. Impressive. Let me try. At T-Mobile, you can save up to 20 % versus the other big guys. You heard them. T-Mobile is the best place to get the new iPhone 17 Pro on us with eligible trade-in in any condition. Check them out to see how much you can save versus the other big guys at T-Mobile.com slash switch. All right, we're back. Okay. I have a couple here that rhyme slightly with some of the stuff we were talking about last week.

41:18The first one I have here is the new Alexa is sick and everybody likes it. I like sick. It's sick. It's not just like nifty. It actually physically gets sick. It has a cold. My Alexa has been throwing up on me. It's so sentient. It's like, ugh. Wait, wait. I'm in if we are like it has an illness. I cannot set a timer. If it's sick, it's so cool it's sick, I'm out. It's so cool it's sick. Has it, appears to have an illness, I'm in. It appears to have an illness. It has such a strong personality that it develops sicknesses and colds and has stomach problems. It's like, oh, you ordered too much whole food.

41:59If you could set the character as just like your ill relative who lives with you, that would be incredible. anytime you ask it for anything it's like anyway i'm totally in on alexa having an illness okay yeah i think we're both we're both picking illness yeah uh i'm writing illness uh i'm in on this one my i i think amazon is that is actually a best case scenario for the launch is they they put these in homes and it's so sentient and it's and it believes it's alive that it's like sorry i can't I can't order the Whole Foods today. Sorry, I can't tell you if the package was delivered. Do you like my sick Alexa voice?

42:41That's pretty good. I'm a little worried that if I react to it too much, it's racist.

42:49It's like a little too neurotic, you know what I mean? Yeah. Yeah, that's fair. All right. I could do Anxious Indian Mom. Yeah, do it. Like, do you think that's going to work? I think you need more of a stronger accent there, but I get you're not wanting to get racist. Okay. Should I go to med school? Yeah. See what I mean? All right. Next up, Blue Sky is every bit as big as Threads. I think it already kind of is. I don't know. Is it? You're having a real what is everything existential crisis over there. No, absolutely not. They're going to keep juicing the Threads numbers with Instagram forever.

43:21Is Blue Sky more relevant on Threads? Yes. Relevant? Yeah. Because of the people that are there. Because of the people that are there. Is that where the conversation is? Okay. I'll allow both of these. So Blue Sky is more relevant than Threads. You're saying, yeah. The Threads will be huge. And Threads is just going to be, it's already hundreds of millions of people, right? Mm-hmm. Yeah. It's probably, given what we've heard from earnings and since, they're probably like knocking on the door of 300 million users. Yeah. And they're going to keep juicing with Instagram and it's a creator platform and that will be a thing.

43:51I think Blue Sky, who knows how big it will get. I'm very high on Interop and Fediverse and all this stuff. but the the ceiling that we know of is Twitter which in its heyday was 325 million people and so I think threads can get bigger than that because they can just keep juicing it with Instagram hmm that seems right to me I think the threads is going to be so big and so integrated into Instagram that it's actually going to be more powerful than it would have been on its own but I think the cool kids will be on Blue Sky and that matters like the what are what are people on cable news is going to read and put on the screen as they talk about it, I would bet on Blue Sky over threads.

44:33If it's those two against each other, I would bet on Blue Sky. Well, this goes back to your cable dying thing from last week, but I think those people continue to stay on X. Interesting. Okay. So the answer is kind of neither one. I think it depends, but I hear what Neal is saying on the relevant. Like, if it continues at this pace and it can bring over people that are breaking news there and it is more of the conversation, but they've got to keep... And this is where Threads has done a slightly better job is getting politicians and celebrities and they've had those people, but they're not actively posting there.

45:08So if they can build the relevancy on Blue Sky and get those people coming over and actually consistently posting, I'm in. Okay. It is... I don't think they're going to say an X though. X is going to have the same algorithmic brain rot as Threads. Yeah. Right. It's just a different kind of gas leak social network. Yeah, it's just like threads. I keep making this distinction. I probably need to explain it better, but I think you have creator platforms now and you have social media platforms. And most things have become creator platforms where they are walled gardens. They're focused on keeping your engaged time on those sites high.

45:42They're algorithmic for you recommendations. They're entirely built around incentivizing creators to run content businesses on the terms of platforms. That's threads. Got you. That's the shape of threads. But you're talking old school social media. You go, you share your thing. You don't care if people leave. You've got links. It's a portal to the web. Right. Well, I mean, that part is interesting. But the part where it's like, I'm going here to follow a bunch of people and see what they're talking about. And those people are not professional content creators. And they're not totally like after the algorithm and juicing the algorithm.

46:13Right. And so Blue Sky just is much more of that. And Twitter used to be that to whatever extent. and I think that that is going to be where that class of people wants to gather because the economics and the incentives of creator platform algorithms just make it that way. They just make it that way. And X is headed that way in like a meaningful explicit way. Because it's also like all they know how to do. Yeah. So and that's what Elon wants. Like Elon's like just don't do lazy links. Just like put your content on the X platform. I was just going to say I keep being really struck by how meaningful a thing it is that Blue Sky is the only one that's like we love when you link to stuff.

46:47It's like there's a whole group of people on the internet who are very important who just link to stuff. And if all of those people go to Blue Sky like that, that's a pretty meaningful thing. But I don't know if that ceiling is bigger than 325 million people. Yeah, maybe not. Like that was as big as Twitter ever got. Comes back to my prediction from last week. We're all going to be just posting everywhere. Yeah, I'm with you. But hopefully there's a system where it's easy. All right, two more and then we're out of here. Apple launched a search engine. Call it, it doesn't have to look exactly like Google, but it is recognizably a web search engine.

47:20Yes. Yeah? Apple's going to start to hedge. And the AI will give them the cover to hedge. Yeah, I was going to say, I think yes, but it's under the guise of AI. And it might link into, you might be able to search ChatGPT or Gemini or, I don't know, Claude, whatever businesses they actually partner with. I think we're going to see those partnerships happen this year. And so that's their answer to search. You think they do it? Apple also knows people are using these apps, these AI apps as search. So they're getting ahead of that. And they will be a little bit behind that in some ways. Apple also has a giant library of content that they don't really expose to anyone in Apple News.

48:02Like if what you want is like a bunch of recipes, they're in Apple News. I think this is a year for Apple News. Like more happens in Apple News or more hooks into Apple News, to your point. Yeah. Because I think Apple News is another place with that home display where they can really take advantage of it. Oh, for sure. And if your thing is like the web is getting poisoned and search is bad and that thing, you're like, well, I'll just point to people to high quality content. To the source. I mean, if you go look at what's trending Apple News, you will. Yeah, I'm aware. I'm aware. It's like a lot of old people yelling at stuff.

48:35Like the number one story at Apple News is always a BuzzFeed article that's like, why are these kids stupid? It's like a Huffington Post thing that's like ripped off three times from something else. you can really get a sense of who a platform's users are by the most popular posts on the platform. Yeah. I'm out on this one just because I think the$20 billion from Google really spends. And I think if you're Apple trying to balance those two things, you're just going to land on the side of we're going to keep taking the money as long as the money is here. Yeah. I mean, it doesn't necessarily mean they change what happens through Safari search.

49:10I just think they're going to, maybe they don't call it search. But it was part of the stuff that came up during the search trial was essentially Apple agreeing not to launch a search engine while they had these deals. So I think that stuff is just, I think, going to take a while to unwind. I think if you gave me like three years instead of one year, I would say yes. But I don't know. Doesn't seem like it's going to happen this fast. But you also may be right that like they're one button away from the chat GPT integration just being live web search. Like it just could happen. It's really slow and bothersome.

49:39Agreed. Okay, last one. the Nintendo Switch came out and I hate to break this to you but it's kind of a bust ooh that's tough it all depends on the pack and game no I'm out there's no way they won't blow it that's too out of character for Nintendo I don't know the Wii U exists they did do the Wii U no still out no? alright I want to believe I'm saying no just because I am at this moment avoiding buying a PS5 because I want the new Switch very badly. And if it sucks, I'm going to have wasted six months of not buying a game console. So I need the new Switch to come out. Sometime before the end of March was what Nintendo promised.

50:29So like we're in the sort of any minute now phase. That changes some things for me. Hmm. They couldn't get it out before holiday. Anyway, I have no... Maybe that's because it sucks. This is the first time I'm hearing of this. So I do not buy it. I don't know what video games are. What are video games? I'm going to learn soon because I have a kid that's finally into video games. You're going to buy him a Switch? Well, I was going to. But maybe it sucks. But now I'm waiting because I don't know. Hmm. I will say I have the current Switch and it is slow. And I would very much like the new one to be faster.

51:03I'm sure they will do that. Okay. You will hope. So I'm waiting then. It's successful because I have bought one. you've already bought one perfect uh no there's no way that it's a bust okay great i hope i hope we're right i believe in all of us all right i this is too many things to go back over i'm going to put all the results in the show notes but thank you both this was delightful uh we agreed more than i wanted to but it's okay we did all right you seem like you've had a great year i've won 2025 was good to you david 2025 listen it's been complicated yeah i've forgotten some of the details, but I'm killing it.

51:38That's all I can tell you. I'm on top of the world. Yeah, you still fit in your clothes from 2024. I have been wearing this sweater for 365 days and no one has noticed until you just now. You own that many versions of that sweater. It's a good year for you. All right. Thank you both. All right. That is it for the Vergecast today. And that's it for our two-part mini series about 2025. Thank you to Nilay and Joanna for doing this deeply silly thing with me. And thank you, as always for listening. I hope this was fun. I really enjoyed doing these two. We just got to have some wild speculation time and that is rare in this business.

52:13We had a good time. There is lots more on all of this at TheVerge.com and there's going to be lots more on all of this for the next year. I think inside of these two episodes, you can sort of see what we're thinking about for the next year. A lot's going to change. A lot's going to happen. We're probably not going to Mars in 2025, but a lot of things are going to happen and we're going to be covering it all. So keep it locked on TheVerge.com. It's a good website. I'm slightly biased, but I kind of like it. And as always, if you have thoughts, questions, feelings, or other things that you definitely, for sure, 100 % think are going to happen in 2025, you can always email us at vergecastatheverge.com or call the hotline 866-VERGE11.

52:51We truly, truly love hearing from you. We're going to do a couple more hotlines at the end of this year, and then we have a big plan for all of the stuff we're going to get to do next year. So keep calling, keep emailing, keep it locked on the Vergecast. This show is produced by Liam James, Will Poore, and Eric Gomez. The Vergecast is a Verge production and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. We'll be back on Tuesday and Friday with your regularly scheduled programming. We are nearing the end of the year and we're going to take a break at the end of the year but we got a couple more fun things for you before we do.

53:20We'll see you then. Rock and roll.

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