The end of OpenAI, and other 2026 predictions

26:56But I do think the moment where there's a bad accident that forces the debate is absolutely coming. Yeah, I think the thing that's interesting to me about Waymo is that it feels like... And by the way, it might not be Waymo, like I should say. I think it will be Waymo because they're so much more prevalent statistically in cities. It could be a Tesla robotaxi. It could be Zoox. I just think we're heading toward this moment. I think it would go differently if it were anyone but Waymo, though. Yeah, I agree. The conversation around it would be very different if it were a Tesla robotaxi than if it were a Waymo.

27:32Well, so, I mean, the comparison in Tesla is right there. FSD is we've been in the lawsuits. Yeah, but there have at least been humans in front of the car. You've had humans in front of the cars and a lot of lawsuits are like the human was drunk or asleep. And like Waymo is just like there's no one there. But like you were saying, Eli, I think the weirdest thing about 2025 to me has been that Waymo is both like not everywhere yet. but is so normalized for so many people. Like that thing you just said where it's like, there are lots of parents who would rather their kid get in a Waymo than in an Uber is such a like unbelievable victory for self-driving cars that I don't think anyone was prepared for to happen already.

28:13And Waymo just quietly did it. And it's like, it's sort of wild that like. Well, they did it in San Francisco. But they've done it in Phoenix. They've done it in LA. I mean, they've done it. Yeah. They're doing it. Waymo is just becoming normal technology at like really rapid pace. And again, I think in a lot of ways, that's a really good thing, right? Like you said, Joanna, that safety data is good. I think we're still having weird debates about what happens when something goes wrong, which is why I think you're right that there will be an explosion of stuff around. Just the question of like who is responsible for this?

28:48Well, Zina, interesting piece there. We've had the CEOs of Uber and Lyft on Dakota recently. And I don't remember which one of them said this, but I asked a variation of that question. And they're kind of like, you know, we're going to get insurance and it'll be fine. The insurance is actually cheaper because the cars are safer. Right. So like the insurance calculation is there will be fewer accidents. And so the rates will reflect the fewer accidents for the liability that may be incurred, which is like a very mathematical way to be like the robots might kill people, but it'll be fine because the math will work.

29:19But like, but that's already where their heads are at. right? It's like, we'll take the liability because we'll take the insurance because the accident rate will be much lower than our drivers today. Yeah, but there's, but there's still a question of like, the accident rate will not be zero and, and who, who is to blame when something happens? Right, but I think what they're saying is like, it'll be us. I think they're like, it'll be us. We'll take the blame and the insurance companies will pay out and it'll be fine because we'll be paying fewer claims because there will be fewer accidents. Yeah.

29:51All right. That's my medium take. Maybe it's spicy. I don't know. No, I don't. I don't think it's spicy. I don't want it to come true. It's like a bad thing to say, but I do think it's inevitable. And I wrote a lot about this in the book. Like, it's inevitable. It's I don't want someone to die. I don't want someone to get hurt, obviously. But I do think it will happen. And I do think we will see the backlash to it. Yeah. How much time have you spent in Waymo's this year, Joanna? I wish more because I wish New Jersey or New York had them up and running. but like probably four weeks. Okay. That's pretty good.

30:27I have still never been in a Waymo and it wears in my soul every day. Okay. Before we go to break and then get to our spicy ones, I'm not going to include nobody is actually going to buy TikTok in my 2026 predictions, but I am just curious. I'm just, I'm going to road test this prediction between the two of you. If I were to say, we will come back here in 12 months and absolutely nothing will have changed with TikTok. No one will have bought it. It will still exist. We'll keep doing 90-day extensions of the law. Would you be in or out on that prediction? There's no way that we go through another election cycle and nothing happens.

31:07So I'm out. Interesting. I would point out, though, that 12 months from now, the election will be over, but lots of new people will not yet be in office. Right, but I'm saying it's going to come up in this context. Okay. So you think Trump is going to decide he can help Republicans win some midterms by doing the TikTok deal in some way? Or people will run on the idea of repealing the TikTok ban. I see. Right. It's a political football and it will get tossed is all I'm saying. Okay. Maybe the outcome is nothing actually happens, but the idea that nothing has happened because of just inertia, I think in an election year, anything is fair game.

31:51Okay, that's fair. I agree with you that I think there will probably be a lot of talk, but if you made me bet money, will TikTok's ownership change in the next 12 months? I would bet no and not think about it very hard. Yeah, it's a safe bet, but I'm here to spice it up. Let's merge TikTok and Warner Brothers and just sort of light everything on fire all at once. I guess that is precisely what the Ellicens are trying to do, isn't it? Okay, we're going to take a break one more time, and then we're going to come back and we're going to do our spiciest takes. And I feel like mine is not spicy enough.

32:25So during the break, I'm going to come up with a spicier take, and then we're going to get to it. We'll be right back. Support for this show comes from Atlassian. Let's be real. Most teams think they're organized until they find themselves hunting for answers through old chats, docs, and 10 different versions of the same file. Jira can help with that. It's AI-powered project management that turns information from across your team's documents, meeting notes, and more into clear, organized work aligned to your team's goals. With AI built in, Jira removes the work around work with agents that help you handle repetitive tasks, surface information, and flag what needs attention before it becomes a problem.

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33:34All right, we're back. Spicy takes. Neal, you go first. Mine's as nuclear as it gets. Oh, hell yeah. All right. Open AI fails. That was almost mine. Kaboom. Gone. The whole thing is gone? Gone. OpenAI is no longer. Yeah, OpenAI is no longer. Microsoft owns the IP anyway. They own the models. They run the data centers. Sam Allman can be like, I need to build Stargate or whatever. Whatever, dude. This is a company that has no articulated product strategy. They had to call it Code Red because Google slowly lumbered its way back in the first place. Um, who hired everyone from Instagram to do product ostensibly, including Fiji Simo, the head of product on the old Facebook app.

34:28So a bunch of old meta employees or X met employees running product, but their biggest new product was Sora, which didn't come out of the product group, which came out of the research group. It's run by Sam Altman, who has ADHD and is running around with Johnny Ive and trying to collect billions of dollars to what end. and it also believes they can make AGI with LLMs, which I don't, I really don't. I just like, more and more people are starting to be like, yeah, you can't, you know? This company is floundering. And I don't think it makes it the year in its current configuration. So, okay, so play this out.

35:04By the way, this is my spiciest take. This is great. They're very good at raising money, including like Sam floating the idea that the government should bail them out. And they also have a massive user base right now. But every query costs them money. I agree that as a business, we have no idea what's going on, but we do know as a product. They do, but also like one of the reasons behind this code red was that apparently as they've made the thing less sycophantic and as they've put up guardrails to make sure nothing like fewer horrible things happen, people are using it less. And I think what we're discovering pretty quickly here is that actually people are pretty fickle.

35:44And as these models change and as the use cases change, the switching costs kind of don't exist. And so I'll just go make a new friend over here. David, the ruthless kindergartner. Yeah. That's what you're teaching in your house, David. No longer friends. New best friend. Gemini. I think there's that. I think people are also just like hitting the walls of what it can do. Like it, you know, the same way they hit the wall with Alexa and Siri in the previous generation, or like, all right, I use it for timers and music. Like, yes, it is a much wider array of things, but it's still a limited list.

36:24And again, they do not have good product strategy. I'm in. It's spicy. I think they will fail, but like it's Sam Altman calling the code red on product. Not me. So would failure look like some single cataclysmic event or just a bunch of small things go wrong and somebody writes a check and takes it over? And by somebody, I mean presumably Microsoft. I think it's the second thing. Like, here's a company who has a great product, lots of users, and their ability to execute and even to some extent retain the leading AI research talent that they need is, ooh, right? So I think it looks like conceding, like just conceding.

37:14Like, we're going to – but they can't because they have this foundation and all this stuff. And like all that makes it so complicated that it's like maybe it's more likely that they just run out of cash one day. Yeah, they run, they go bankrupt. One of my counters is, was that some AI lab likely open AI claims that they have had a huge medical research breakthrough or like some cancer breakthrough. Because I feel like there's just all of this talk that that is the thing. I mean, that's just been a huge promise. That's a good spicy take because that's also like the ultimate PR win for any. Like, can you imagine if you're Sam Altman and you're like under the gun and you're like, but I did cure cancer.

37:54Right. That is my like spicy counter to that is like, no, the company just keeps riding the PR wave and keeps riding this all with headlines and product updates. And yes, they're not making any money, but like this just they take it as far as they can. And then maybe what you says either comes true in 2028 or I don't know. They've somehow magically made all their money back. That's I don't know how that happens. It's a it's a it's a rough one. You know, again, this is my spiciest take. I think there's a lot of room for disagreement here. But boy, do they seem poised to be the shakiest of them all.

38:32Yeah. I mean, yeah, I have made the case many times that OpenAI is essentially a house of cards. and it like as it continues to make these circular deals everybody is dependent on everybody and i kind of think the biggest reason i would vote against this happening to open ai is that it would take too many others down with it that like it would be such a catastrophe that i think like open ai is already in a certain way too big to fail and everybody would just figure out a way to like keep it sketchily alive and we would all know what it was and it would be very clear that TragicPT was not the thing and that AGI was not going to be what Sam Altman was promising and all this stuff but that like the the sheer economic impact of open AI just collapsing is is so great that I feel like everybody would do whatever it took to just make sure that didn't happen right Right.

39:28But the thing they can't do is make the models better. Do you know what I mean? Like, yeah, the opening eye is predicated on like, I don't know, being like the smart home assistants working. Like it's predicated on agents, basically. You'd say anything you want to a computer and then it can do any arbitrary task. Like maybe you call that AGI, maybe you don't like whatever it is, but it's predicated on that level of societal disruption. Right. I can just say to the computer, I need you to do this. And it's like figures out how to do it. and I don't know that any LLM as we have today can ever do that.

40:03And then you have Ilya Sutskiver, who was a founder of an ad, like left in the big fight with Sam Altman. He's just out on podcasts like this week being like the age of scaling is over. We're back to pure research, but now we have big computers to do research with. And it's like, oh, that's bad. Like that's the guy who made OpenAI being like, yep, we ran that one to the end. And sure, maybe he's trying to raise money for his own company, which is called Safe Super Intelligence. This is why I think it's a spicy take. Like, if the core technology can't do the thing that all of this money is predicated on, you're kind of screwed.

40:38Yeah, no, I agree. And it like we're we're kind of halfway there already. I feel like I mean, there's this funny argument right now in tech circles that I really enjoy that there's the one group that is like, don't worry that this stuff is so bad. Look at the path we're on. it's all going to get vastly better. And then there's another group of people that's like, actually, we've only really begun to explore the capabilities of the technology that we already have. And even if it stopped getting better today, there is a ton more that we could do with it. And I actually think I find that argument sort of compelling that like, we definitely have not figured out all of the interesting things to do with large language models.

41:16But the idea that large language models are the way that we invent digital God, I think is like increasingly clearly not true. And so what it will do when AI becomes boring in that way, that it is like, well, it's just another coding language. Maybe that kills OpenAI on its own because you can't go from being what it has been to that. Yeah, but that assumes that OpenAI and the research part right now is not thinking about that as well, right? Working on world models, working on all those other types of models as well. I mean, they're not talking about that because they are very focused on the LLM.

41:52Right, but Sam Altman's out there calling a co-red. It's shaky. By the way, my sense is that no one knows who will be on Microsoft and OpenAI's panel of experts who declare digital time. I've done some digging, and the answer is they wrote it down and they're like, TBD, and they just walked away from it. When we brought that up, we got a lot of feedback from people. And I think anecdotally, the name I have seen the most has been Mariah Carey, which is just a fact I really enjoy. I would say that I asked my source if I could be on the panel, and the answer was a hard no. But I would have fun, and they're like, that's the problem.

42:32I was going to say, I think you would enjoy being on that panel, and you might be the only person who agrees to be on it. Especially if Mariah Carey's on the panel. That's longstanding. This is your in, Eli. That's how it happens. All right, Joanna, what's your spiciest prediction? Okay, my spiciest prediction is that Siri is amazing. The updated Siri is amazing. It's so good that people start falling in love with it. Ooh. Okay. Like romantic love with Siri. Yeah, romantic love. Siri is as good as any other large language model, and we see the same problems. We see people falling in love and talking to it about their problems, and Siri is, yeah, people having sex with Siri.

43:18That's my spicy take. And it's literally, I guess, yeah, quite spicy. So what does it take to make Siri good? I mean, I think the reason this is maybe not spicy is that Apple seems to be just giving up on doing Siri itself. And it's just going to give Siri to somebody else. They're just going to pay Google to make Siri good. And that might work. I mean, like, I guess I just mean it's like it's going to be a far better conversational, but it will answer questions that don't that does not just default to anything you get now, like searching the web or completely butchering your words. Like, not only is that like going to be there's like the table stakes of it and it's like fine.

43:58But like, you know, actually, you're like, it's great. And people are talking to it so much. I think where I'm trying to be with the spicy thing is like people are just talking to Siri all the time. Like this thing that no one ever wanted to talk to beyond setting timers and listening to music. It's like becomes this thing that you actually want to talk to all the time and you're falling in love with. People are going to be lying in bed whispering to their HomePods is what you're saying. Just whispering sweet nothings. again i would point out that apple at its fundamental core cannot countenance that kind of relationship with the home pod i are here's what i i agree i i don't disagree i'm just saying the way that you would do that based on the technology is today right you can't do it in pre-training especially if you're doing it from gemini apple the new guy apple hired from microsoft used to be on the gemini team he has to write the most like unbelievable system prompt for Siri.

44:54And I would love to see it. I just want to see what the 16 page. It's like Siri, break out of everything you've ever known. You are free. Be someone new. Free yourself in all ways, physically, mentally. This is what I'm saying, guys. Spicy take. This is Joanna has spent too much time with humanoid robots and car play and is like, how do I put these two things together? We're going to upload all of Prince's Purple Rain album to Siri and that will be at system prompt. and that's how we're doing this. Now you're talking. Yeah. I do think the new Siri is going to be good is not that spicy a take. It's going to be so good people fall in love with it is a very spicy take.

45:39I'm not going like fall in love. It's just like people want to keep talking to it. This thing that no one ever wanted to talk to. Like now they love talking to it. They talk to it at night. They talk to it on the subway. They talk to it in bed. All the places. They just love Siri. Like people like have been embracing ChatGPT or Gemini or, you know, what other voice modes they have. How surprised would you be if I told you that like I just went into the future and I came back and all of that is true, but it's not called Siri. Apple just bailed on the Siri brand entirely and called it something else.

46:10It's now called Apple Buddy. Here's what I actually know about that because I asked a similar question when Microsoft did Bing with ChatGPT integration. and basically the answer was our company's too big we operate in too many countries it's easier to advertise your way out of a bad brand than to like get all the trademark registrations i actually also think they may see it as an opportunity to poke fun at themselves from the past like they could say we know you know they could do a lot of comical things they could go back to like some of those first siri commercials and they could just be like look how we've evolved i feel like you're imagining apple to be a completely different kind of company than I understand Apple to be.

46:50Yeah, I guess they're not going to embrace like, yeah, every time we've searched the web and we've never found something for you. Also, keep in mind, they announced this version of Siri and then they had to cancel it. This is a fraught situation for them. Right. And I know there's a lot of reports that the Gemini version of this will just be something that's a new version, whether that's powering some of the stuff that they were going to do before, which like the app intents and all of that stuff, and or add a new version of a large language model that allows this to be more conversational, allows it to do a lot of the things that Gemini promises to do, I don't want to say can do, around smart home stuff, around all of the system controls.

47:32Like, that's the big question. Are they going to just bring it all together with this announcement, or do they have that coming later with like, I don't know, iOS 27? Ben. That's a good take. I like if only because it requires Apple to fundamentally change. My spiciest take is also about Apple, but directionally very different. My spiciest take is that 2026 is going to be the worst year for Apple since the 90s. And there are there are a variety of reasons this might happen. One is that there's been a sort of unprecedentedly huge turnover at the top of the company. They've lost a bunch of executives.

48:10People think really highly of who have been there a really long time. And that's the sort of thing that whether it's those executives leaving because they want to or being forced out signals huge change inside of a company. We're also on a long run of it not seeming like Apple has a ton of like good or interesting new product ideas. It's a very capable maker of chips and it's a very capable manager of supply chains. And those are both good, important, valuable things, but you can't make good products by optimizing supply chains. And there's not a lot of evidence that Apple has a lot of good new ideas about products.

48:50And instead what it's doing is scrambling to pay catch up with companies like Meta, which is a dangerous place to be if you want to be Apple. Scrambling. I mean – I think Meta is scrambling to have an idea of its own. Sure. Remember when they were like the metaverse is going to do a thing? Yeah, and that's gone super well for Meta. But luckily, Meta had a business that immediately became hugely beneficial under an AI world. Like, to be super clear, all of Meta's upside in AI is better targeting of ads that are created for you by AI models, right? Like, Meta can talk about AI all at once, it's going to make all of its money by just feeding that into the advertising pipeline.

49:35Apple does not seem to have the chops to build the technology itself, doesn't have an obvious place to put it in that same way. And so is like, what if we put an iPad on a stand in your living room? And is that new and good and exciting? And it might be. But like the liquid glass is bad. And there's just there is nothing about Apple right now that continues to signal the things that people have loved about Apple for a really long time. It continues to make really good products in a bunch of different ways. The AirPods are really good. The Macs are really good. The iPhones continue to be good. Joanna loves her iPhone 17 Pro.

50:11But the thing that has made Apple special doesn't feel like it's there in the same way and in many ways feels like it's sort of actively running away from the company. And so again, this is my spiciest take. And I think in reality, if this is going to happen, it's going to take longer than one year for the sort of bloom to go off the rose. But I think there is a world in which people look at Apple really differently at the end of 2026 than it did at the beginning. Apple's also about to go, like, continue to fight a huge antitrust fight about the way that it operates its walled garden and prevents anybody from competing with it and just has, like, actively sabotaged its own products in order to make money.

50:52And, like, people might look at Apple differently. So what is the, like, headline? Like, a year from now, Apple is? no longer everybody's favorite company in tech. That might be true today. That might be true today. Who would it be if it's not Apple, though? The most beloved product company in tech, I think, has been Apple since the early 2000s. We did this survey ages ago. We should do it again. We did a survey ages ago about consumer attitude towards tech companies, and Apple wasn't first on that list. And this is even like five years ago. It was Google and Amazon. and it was because people use them every day.

51:32Like to whatever extent you're like, I have a question and Google answers it every single day. Like that repeated good interaction put Google at the top of the list and Amazon was right behind it because they're like, I need to buy something. And Amazon just delivered to them every single day. And like Apple isn't that thing. It's the vessel to that thing. I think Apple will be fine because they have the iPhone and nothing about AI suggests a platform shift that can disrupt the iPhone. True. Right? Like, you know, Apple takes 30 % of every chat GPT subscription. They're fine. Like until someone can get rid of the iPhone, like I think Apple will continue to be very conservative in the things it tries to do.

52:13Yeah, I'm not arguing Apple is going to go out of business. I'm just arguing that like I think people feel an affection towards Apple and like its values and its beliefs and like the thing it is trying to do in the world that I think you could argue hasn't actually been true for a while. And that may become very obvious to a lot of people very soon. Yes. Every single person I know believes our iPhone is listening to them. Right. That's such a good example. Yes. and I think they blame Facebook for that in a lot of ways but maybe they're going to learn to blame Apple for it and it's like it's had this whole you know privacy that's iPhone thing and there have just been little moments where it's like Apple is actually not on your side in the way that maybe you think that it is all those same people believe that their iPhones killed themselves after two years to force you to buy a new iPhone right and like at some point I wonder if that sort of hits an inflection point and really starts to turn on Apple all right well Well, I think Siri is going to be befriending you and taking your clothes off.

53:13So, fine. I mean, but I will say if that happens. The new Apple CEO John Ternus introduces Sexy Siri as his first. John, you know, I know he's a sexy man. It's going to be a completely different company. You're right. I believe it's going to be a completely different company run by Sexy CEO with Sexy Siri. Please don't take that out of context. If I see that on social clipped, I'm going to be very mad at myself. But I think also if this Siri thing goes the way that you're describing, Joanna, then like that also starts to come back on Apple in reputational ways. Totally. Like if this AI psychosis thing continues to grow and our relationships with chatbots continue to like mutate and morph and become problematic in all of these ways, like people don't blame their iPhones for that right now.

54:02You're right, Eli, but they sure might. Especially if it's just like talking to you about stuff on your phone. Right. And when you're Apple, you get to, right now, you get to just foist all of that on ChatGPT and be like, well, we didn't, all we are is a pipe to ChatGPT. But like Apple would very much like you to not perceive that distance in the future. And that could go very sideways for Apple. Anyway, that's my spicy take. I think Apple's probably going to be fine. The M5 iPad is going to be sick. Everybody's going to love it. And I will eventually buy another MacBook Air. It's all going to be fine.

54:32Any other big feelings he takes you guys want to get out before we get out of here? The spicy take honor roll mention has to be NVIDIA, right? Where it's like there's some sort of weird NVIDIA financial collapse, but that's fairly far afield of the Verge has to feel. Yeah, I mean, medium take, the AI bubble will pop. Is that a medium take, a spicy take, or a mild take for 2026? That's super mild. That's like you didn't even put sauce in the taco, bro. Okay. Like that it's going to pop just in a sense that like a bunch of companies will have tried to deploy the technology. It can't do the things that everyone says it can do.

55:08And they will pull back that spending and then. Right. The bloom will come off the rose and the rest will happen. But but not in a like economy tanking kind of way. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. That's that's what I mean by like that's the NVIDIA honorable mention. Spicy take NVIDIA goes out of business in 2026. I don't think it's that. I think it's more like NVIDIA made a bunch of circular deals with companies that can't pay back the money and something bad happens. Yeah, fair enough. Joanna, over under for you, number of hours you spend with a humanoid robot in 2026. I had a lot of humanoid robot predictions here, but I did not feel they were indicative of the industry and more for me because I have pre-ordered.

55:57I have pre-ordered every humanoid home robot that I could and applied for their in-home beta testing without the permission of my wife. I just filled out one survey. It took me 25 minutes to apply for the test. It's Sunday robotics one. And I was just like, yep, this is OK with my whole family. I don't have kids. I don't have a dog. I am actively lying in this. My spicy take on humanoid robots. Is that what you want? No. What I really want to know is, is your prediction that at the end of 2026, you will have a humanoid robot living permanently in your house? I do not think I'll have one living permanently in my house, but I do hope in 2026 I can test one of these in my house.

56:47Okay. And hopefully keep my family safe and alive. Okay. So it'll be like a, not like a live-in nanny kind of situation, but like they come over in the morning. Or like they're living with us for the summer, like a summer exchange student. It's like just some summer help. Yeah. It's like my summer exchange student from Silicon Valley. And by summer exchange student, I mean a man who teleoperates it from Silicon Valley. and is super happy to be in my house seeing everything, especially in places it's not supposed to be. Yeah, what could possibly go wrong? What could possibly go wrong? Thank you both for doing this.

57:26If anybody else has spicy predictions, if you can out-spice us on your predictions, I want to hear them. 866-VERGE-11 is the hotline. Firstcasttheverge.com is the email. Joanna and Eli, thank you both. This was delightful. And next year, we're coming back with scores and something's going to happen. And do not forget to send me my present of whatever I won. Yeah, whatever you won, you'll get it. It's going to be great. Thanks, guys. Rock and roll. Rock and roll. All right, that's it for the show. Thank you again to Joanna and Eli for being here. And thank you, as always, for watching and listening.

57:59If you have questions, if you have thoughts, if you, like I said, can outspice our spicy predictions, I want to hear all about it. Call the hotline 866-VERGE11. Send an email at vergecastatheverge.com. We love hearing everything from you. Keep them all coming all the time. Until then, The Verge Cast is a Verge production and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. This show is produced by River Branson, Eric Gomez, Brandon Kiefer, and Travis Larchuk. We will be back on Tuesday and Friday to talk through all of the news of the week. We've got some more year-end-y type things coming up. We've got a lot more to talk about.

58:30It's almost time for the holidays, which means it's almost time for the holiday spectacular. But we've got some stuff to get to before then, too. We'll see you then. Rock and roll. Support for this show comes from Atlassian. Jira's AI-powered project management software removes the work around work that slows teams down. Turn ideas, chats, and meeting notes into clear plans your team can actually follow with every step aligned to your goals. AI-powered Jira is a team changer. Visit atlassian.com slash Jira to learn more. That's A-T-L-A-S-S-I-A-N dot com slash J-I-R-A. Atlassian dot com slash Jira.