Who will win the 2024 streaming wars?

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22:24Welcome back. Last year was a huge and messy one for the streaming industry. There were strikes. There were huge mergers. There was a lot of CEO bickering. There were layoffs. Everybody was selling everything to everybody. And it just all got very complicated. And it just seems like this whole industry is trying to figure out what it is. And I think 2024 is going to be a lot more of the same. So to preview all of it with me, I brought in Alex Kranz, who knows all this stuff and also holds the title of, I think, the world's last Paramount Plus subscriber. Hi, Alex. Hello. Okay, so here's what we're going to do.

22:58Okay. We're going to talk about streaming. We talk about streaming a lot. I feel like we need more ways to be loudly wrong about the streaming industry. So that's what we're going to do here. Basically, I've set this up. I went through and came up with, I think it's either eight or nine of the streaming services people care about. and you can quibble whether there should be ones. I don't care. This is the list I came up with. Here we are, which is sort of fun. It's like I went through and just wrote down all the ones I could think of and then went and looked at a list and all the other ones were ones that I was like, I don't really care about that.

23:27So it worked out well. And we're just going to go through and basically try to figure out if this is going to be a good year or a bad year for that streaming service. So we're just going to go up and down. No nuance, no scores out of 10. It's just good year, bad year. That's all we're doing. Does that sound good? I love it. Okay. So we should probably start with Netflix just because Netflix is Netflix. Yeah. And my guess is this is going to be one of the least complicated ones for the two of us to figure out here. What's your sense on what's coming for Netflix in 2024? As far as new stuff goes, I think the big one is Three Body Problem.

24:00There's a lot of weirdness there. I'm both excited about it and terrified of it. This is like the second and a half adaptation of this story. It's already been adapted once for TV. And it was made into a film by the same people making the Netflix show. It feels like a bad sign that I didn't know that. The movie never came out. Oh, okay. They shot it in 2015 and were like, never mind. Oh, boy. But we need to make something. So that's why the whole Netflix deal happened. And they split characters up. If you're a big loyalist and love the books, there's a lot of confusion going on. But I feel like you've got that.

24:32But then you've got returning stuff like Bridgerton, which I personally am very excited about Bridgerton. And I don't know how much of our audience at The Verge cast is, but I'm pumped for it. And it's got the chick from Dairy Girls. That's her big moment. It's going to be great. There's newer stuff like the new Michelle Yeoh show that's on TV. A lot of the reality shows are returning. We're going to have this final season of Queer Eye. Oh, yeah. It's going to just have all of the weird Bobby drama lingering behind it. The drama is probably more interesting than the show itself. Agreed. So I feel like Netflix has got some returning shows that are going to be really big this year.

25:09Stranger Things, I don't think, is one of them. I think that's 2025. I think they're shooting it this year. And so we're going to wait for Stranger Things. But they've got some other returning shows. And this is going to be the year we find out if Netflix is learning anything about how to program their channel and not just throw everything at the wall and see what sticks. But it also seems like, I don't know, I just I keep thinking about these like award shows where the guys from Suits come up to present awards and everybody's like, oh, my God, Suits is my favorite show. And it's like Suits is like an old show.

25:39Yeah, this is not a new thing. But it had this new life on Netflix. To me, it feels like Netflix is like the most slam dunk winner of 2024, unless it does something monumentally stupid. It's like the password thing seems to be working. They can just license shows from everybody now because they're the only ones with money. it just seems like it's gonna work i'm hesitant to call it the winner because i think this is going to be the year where we start to see a lot of its strategy like solidify and we start to see if audiences actually like that strategy because they did a lot of they made a lot of moves last year and this year they kind of like they they have a very different programming slate than they've had from years past and this is the year where we see if that programming slate works because it's a lot of reality tv which is doing well for max and has done really well for Netflix.

26:26And then it's a lot of like these prestige shows like Three Body Problem. And I could very easily see Three Body Problem like cratering, doing really, really badly. Yeah, that's an interesting point. I think I was going through so Variety did this list of like the shows people are most excited about this year. And Netflix had more of them than any other service, which is not really surprising. But you're right. I hadn't really thought about it until you said it. But Netflix is doing like ultra cheap reality stuff and then like ultra expensive, prestigy, culture shaping kinds of shows and then nothing in the middle anymore which used to be where Netflix lived was in the middle right where they're just like here's 100 shows do you like any of them and they're not doing that at all anymore they're not doing it they're relying on suits they're relying on they think they can buy those shows now yeah they can buy those shows and I'll be curious to see if that actually works I would say they're not the winner as much as like the most consistent probably like like I think they're gonna do well they're not gonna bomb where we're all being like oh man Netflix really screwed the pooch this year but they're not gonna to be, but we're not going to be like, man, Netflix had episode for episode, hour for hour, the best streaming service out there.

27:29I don't think that's true. Okay. But we're still thumbs up on Netflix for 2024. Thumbs up. Thumbs up. All right. I like it. Next one, Disney Plus. This one I think might be the most complicated. I'm going to be a horrible person and say thumbs down. Oh, maybe not complicated. I'm also thumbs down on Disney Plus. I think this might be a terrible year for Disney Plus. Yeah. Like Echo just came out. They released all five episodes at once. It was a great show. I really enjoyed it. Like, best time I've had at Marvel in a while because I didn't have to care about the rest of the Marvel universe to enjoy it.

27:59And then they've got Agatha, which is like a spinoff of... WandaVision, right? Yeah, right? It was a spinoff of WandaVision. That's coming way at the end of the year. And then they've got a Star Wars show. I think they've only got one Star Wars show this year, which is The Acolyte, which is set before all the Star Wars stuff we know. It's basically like we're just going to tell a cool story about Jedi. And that could be really, really cool. but there is a lot of fatigue with disney and it is holding fast and they've held a bunch of shows there's a bunch of shows like iron heart that are just getting punted to 2025 because they realized they were making bad tv daredevil's another one it was supposed to i think come out this year got punted to 2025 so disney is not in a great place but there's big asterisks because hulu which we're also going to talk about yep is coming into like going to be a great year for Hulu.

28:48And at some point it's probably gonna merge with Disney and all of that content will be in one place. So it's like Disney plus bad year asterisks until Hulu gets merged into it. Okay, that's fair. So let's just jump to Hulu because I agree on Disney plus I think going through the list of stuff people are excited about Disney plus was kind of alarmingly low and and you're right. It's all Marvel and it's all Star Wars. And then it's like random cool documentaries that Disney plus has more of than people think, but is still not how you get a thumbs up on this podcast they're doing under the national geographic brand they're doing like an adaptation of the story of martin luther king and and malcolm x and cool cast in that that could be really really cool the national geographic shows are neat but they're also not winning awards not starting conversations yeah you don't win the streaming award the streaming wars with that i'm sorry to say but to your point the the asterisk is a big one because the next one on my list is Hulu, which is kind of a funny thing.

29:44Hulu is now like the most reliable dumping ground for stuff on linear television. And it seems like that's just where a lot of that stuff lives now. We're going to get to Peacock in a minute. But other than the stuff that's on Peacock, Hulu is just gobbling up these shows on broadcast television and on FX and on some of these other channels that people really like. Hulu is eventually going to be Disney Plus. Do we think that's this year? Like, does Hulu just get wiped off the board because it's not even going to be a thing at the end of 2024? I see it happening unless there's like weird contract stuff because it's like the exclusive streamer for, I believe, ABC and FX because they're both owned by Disney.

30:22So I could see contractual stuff, meaning it happens another year, but I think it's probably going to happen this year. And the stuff is really good. Like, we've got a new season of Feud, which is just going to be a whole bunch of women in their 50-somethings being absolutely horrible to this guy playing Truman Capote. And I personally, like, I've wanted nothing more than Calista Flockhart and Demi Moore, like, being mean to someone on TV together while wearing, like, 70s couture. That sounds great to me personally. But you've got old stuff like Grey's Anatomy, which is coming into season 20. 20?

30:54I think it's going into season 20 or season 19. That's wild. Which is insane. I gave up after season two, but I'm told people still watch Grey's Anatomy. You got to watch like season six had a really good episode. Just you just got to watch that one episode from that one season. You're fine. You're fine. You'll be all caught up. All right, cool. I'm into it. It's still an old standby. It's still you're seeing a lot of young people watch it. Like I'm seeing it increasingly on my TikTok and like teens watching it and getting into it because they grew up kind of with it in the background and now they want to pay attention.

31:23And they're like, oh, damn, mom, watch this. And like I was five. Was I allowed to watch this? Shouldn't have been. Yeah, definitely not. No. And then you've got like 9-1-1, which is another of those kind of shows where like, I can just put that on and do my laundry and have a good time. And that's personally the kind of stuff I want. I feel like there's a bunch of stuff coming to Hulu this year that's going to be really, really good. Yeah, I think that's right. Hulu doesn't seem to have the one kind of giant thing everybody is hoping for. Like maybe season two of Feud is that that kind of penetrates into this is the show everybody is talking about.

31:54But that's never really been Hulu's thing, right? Hulu's thing is it's the place you go to watch the shows you kind of like guiltily and don't really tell anybody about. Like that's Hulu's thing and it's a very good thing. And it's benefiting from the fact that it's got all of the FX content, and FX is still making TV in a way that a lot of those basic cable channels stopped doing. FX is still doing it, which is why you're getting Feud, which is why you're getting Shogun, which is a remake of a Richard Chamberlain miniseries from the 80s that they're doing. And I keep seeing it everywhere, and I like the cast in it, so I'm like, all right, I'll watch this, even though the original was boring as hell.

32:34But like FX is really thoughtful about programming. And I think we're going to see that in Hulu and they're going to benefit from that in a way that Netflix just doesn't have that those chops. Yeah, I mean, funny enough, I think Hulu is probably a thumbs up for this year. And I think the extent to which it is a thumbs up, I think you're right, will probably determine whether Disney Plus is a thumbs up or not. Like, Hulu feels very important to Disney this year, because Disney otherwise isn't kind of a weird place where it's so reliant on just a couple of things like we've been talking about. But Hulu is the one where they're just like, we just have this sort of giant slate of cool stuff that a lot of people like.

33:10and Disney is like, dear God, we need that because if we keep making Marvel stuff, people will leave. Yes. I mean, I'll watch Marvel too, but I want to mix it up. Yeah, 100%. All right, so we're thumbs up for Hulu, but it is, I would say, possible that we will not get to give Hulu a score at the end of the year because it will just be part of Disney+. Yeah, asterisks. Yeah, exactly. All right, next up, Max, which to me, Max is the most split between there's a content story and there's a corporate story and they are complete opposites of each other, which has made me very torn on how to rule on this company this year.

33:44What do you think? The content story is good, right? Like the content story is good. You've got all of this stuff. I personally don't watch a lot of reality TV, but everybody knows David loves it. I do. Just HGTV forever. I'm fine with it. There's a new Kids Baking Championship on Max right now. It's very exciting. Yeah. My sister-in-law loves the Naked Dating show. Oh yeah. We had to watch so much of it at Christmas. Cool family-friendly show, it seems like. Yeah. It's great. That's great. I love watching that with the mom. But really, they've got good stuff. Max, the content-wise, they've got something that's hitting every one of those markets, right?

34:15It's hitting the people who just want to go. You know, you can watch Friends and do your laundry. You can watch reality TV shows. And you've got your big prestige stuff. And it's got a lot of prestige stuff coming this year. A new season of House of Dragons. I think The Last of Us isn't until 2025. I think that's another one. They're just casting it now. So I think that's getting punted. but there's a bunch of stuff that's going to be coming by benefit of having HBO. Yeah, there's like a Dune show coming this year. That's right. There's a True Detective already started. Have you watched the first of the new True Detectives?

34:46True Detective is one of my favorite shows of the year so far. I've watched all of it. I think I'm only allowed to say it's really good. I really like it. I think people are going to really like it. It's a fun time. I have not watched it yet but I promise I will catch up by the time we do this again so we can talk about it. Yeah, you've just got the rest of the year. Exactly. It'll be fun. But yeah, I think they've got really, really good taunted there. I think they're still struggling with their user interface. And I think, honestly, for me, that's going to be the big story of the year is if people get their user interfaces in a place that's usable consistently, they are one of the worst at it right now.

35:16They're slowly improving, but we'll see. They're doing a lot more sports this year, I know. And we're curious to see how that goes for them. You know the sports side better than I do. Well, they've been kind of delaying this in a weird way. Bleacher Report is part of max it's its own you know tab in the app which makes you think it's a big deal it's right there on the road with hbo and it was supposed to be kind of an add-on with a lot of stuff and they've kind of delayed that and delayed it and it's not super clear what that's going to look like yet or whether it's going to really work but obviously warner brothers discovery has rights to lots of nba games and lots of other sports so it'll i would assume it'll start to happen because that is the plan but and this is the corporate story warner brothers discovery the company that owns Max seems to be less and less invested in the idea of Max as the future of the company.

36:05David Zaslav has been talking about this all the time. They're big on theaters. They're back to selling content to other streamers. I'm not confident that this company cares a lot about Max anymore. The other side of the content story is we're seeing a lot of stuff that's going to come that was made for HBO, not for Max. There's only a couple of shows that are exclusively Max that are still around. Harley Quinn, Hack, and I think the secret sex lives of college girls. That show is, if not ending, is going to be in a bad place. It's big star Renee Rapp is leaving. Hacks, this is its third season and I think it's pretty probably done.

36:42Harley Quinn is probably going to be the only one of those like Max originals that survives a very long time. It's doing well. Everybody likes it. Critically eclairamed. And it's going to just keep going. You can always gritty reboot Batman. That's what we've always learned. Any gritty reboot of a Batman show is going to do just fine. You're going to be all right. Just redo it and you're good to go. But as far as like it's other big stuff, all the other programming is really dependent on its linear channels and pulling it from there. So like The Regime and House of the Dragons, those are all HBO first shows.

37:13So I'm curious to see what happens with Max. I don't think it goes away entirely. I think it sticks around. But I think like that moment we had where Max was the best streaming service, I think that's done. Yeah, it's going to be so interesting to see if we get to the end of this year. Warner Brothers Discovery still has a ton of debt, is still kind of hemorrhaging money trying to make all of this work. And it's going to get to a point where either David Zaslav and the rest of the executives there are going to have to just like hold their nose and say, we believe Max is the future. We are all in, even if it gets us fired and runs us out of business.

37:45Or they're going to say, you know, never mind. Let's have this be a nice thing on the side, but not worry too much about it. And we're going to go back to mostly being a place that makes things and sells it to other people. And if you do that, you're not going to beat Netflix. It's just I just don't see it happening. Like, I'm a very light thumbs down on Max for that reason, because I just don't believe it's they have not burned the boats on streaming. You know what I mean? Well, they put all their films, all their films are on Netflix now, right? Like, that's who they sold all their films to.

38:12And that's a fine and good thing. And more companies should do that. But that's not how you make Max win. Yeah, Max, I think I'm a little thumbs up just because it does have so much content and it is it's going to stick around. But I see like I can see 2025 being thumbs down on it. OK, but 2024, I'm still like shaky thumbs up. All right. That's good. This is we disagree. This is good. Yeah. And next up, this is I just switched the order around because this actually matters a lot, both to its own story and to the Max story is Paramount Plus, which there are rumors flying that Paramount Plus may someday not be a thing and be a part of Max.

38:50There's rumors that Warner Brothers Discovery or someone else is very interested in buying Paramount Global or National Amusements. The corporate intrigue is confusing and strange, but none of it seems to end in Paramount Plus being a going concern for much longer. See, I am probably the most bullish on Paramount Plus. I 100 % believe that. You might be the only person left. I said in the intro, You may be the only person left on Paramount Plus at the end of this. I think that of all of the big streaming companies, it is the most thoughtful. It's been doing it as long as anybody, right? Like it originally started as CBS All Access.

39:23It was doing it before Max and a lot of these other companies thought about doing this strategy. And it's been a slow and steady like winner. And they already knew the advertising business. They were serving ads before anybody else and doing well with it. They're doing sports before anybody else and doing well with it. they were live streaming before like max still struggles with live streaming and paramount plus has been doing it for a while tech stack wise they're in a really good position content wise they have like solid content that's that makes them money right you've got the star trek stuff that nobody talks about but you've got people do seem to watch i will say i have heard i have heard enough people say i love the star trek shows why does nobody talk about it that it has kind of entered the actually people do talk about it category it's kind of a little bit of a thing You've got all the Taylor Sheridan stuff that's also happening.

40:10Sure. You've got, this is probably just for me and the three other people that have been subscribing to Paramount Plus since it was CBS All Access. But Elspeth, which is going to be the second spinoff of The Good Wife. Oh. So we've got that coming. A new season of Evil, which is from the same team. I will say Evil is great. I make a lot of fun of Paramount Plus. Evil is great. Legit, such a good show. It's so weird in the best possible way. And then I assume there's another NCIS just because every year there's another NCIS. Yeah. And people watch that. I don't watch it. So many people watch it, though.

40:44So I'm kind of bullish on it because they didn't stop yet. So why would they suddenly stop now? Just to be acquired? This is a company that's owned by primarily a single person. It's got one big stockholder, and it's been owned by this family for a fairly decent amount of time. and yeah she might want to say okay i'm going to check out but i can't see her just wanting to go and be part of like the max amalgamation right like that's fair and a lot of that stuff we heard where warner brothers discovery was thinking about buying it and kicking the tires that has since disappeared we've heard quiet there could still happen i'm not going to say it's not going to happen i'll just be really really surprised but i think it's just kind of like these are the it's still the whole same crew that had the number one network on television for like a bajillion years Yeah, they know how to do that once.

41:33And I think they're starting to figure streaming out better. And I don't think they're ever going to be Netflix, but I think they're going to still persist. I could see them being very comfortable with being in fourth place if they can get there. yeah no i i i totally buy that logic i'm still thumbs down on paramount plus i think it's fair as a bundle of content i think paramount plus is going to make for a giant thumbs up on peacock or hb or max or wherever it ends up i just don't think this company is going to stay interested in having its own streaming service like i just don't know what fourth place gets you at this point anymore no it that's that's the thing is they're comfortable with it because it gets them monthly it just gets them additional revenue well sure it makes sherry redstone rich which is something that's that's fair yeah like like they're still making money off of it they weren't as kind of a victim of zero interest rates as a lot of other people a lot of people put a lot of money into that and they certainly did too there was the the grease prequel which me and one other person watched and we had a great time but that was a dumb move to ever make that show why did you do that?

42:37And they have fewer of those misses. Like they generally are much more bullish on the shows they do have in those shows. And they're much more thoughtful about how they spend money on stuff. They're not throwing money around. That is true. Paramount Plus, there's a good case to be made. And you're making me rethink my thumbs down that Paramount Plus is like the cockroach of the streaming industry. It's like it's never going to win, but it's also never going to die. Yes. They're not doing the big swings that make you Netflix, but they're also not doing the dumb things that kill your streaming service.

43:07So I think that's fair. I still think they're more likely to get bought this year than not. So I'm sticking with my thumbs down. But you make a convincing case, and I sort of hope I'm wrong for your sake. See, I would have, until last week, I would have said, it's not going to be them, it's going to be Peacock. And then Peacock, if you want to move on to Peacock. Let's do it. Peacock just absolutely crushed it with sports, right? Like they have one of the biggest streaming moments ever in the history of the world. And so it's like, oh, damn. And it worked. They had like, what was it? 23 million people watched the playoff game on Peacock.

43:40Still less than who watched MASH season finale. But still, the fact that that many people watched it and it worked and people were happy is like, that's a big win for streaming in general, I think. And can Peacock parlay that into long term success? Is anybody's guess? Agreed. I would generally say no, because otherwise, when you think about their scripted programming, it's not very good. When you think about their scripted programming, that's not sports, it's not very good. First of all, that is Twisted Metal Erasure, and I will not stand for it. Sorry. Twisted Metal is the best terrible show I watched in 2023.

44:19More people watch that than Paramount Plus. but they've got sports going for them and maybe maybe that that has been enough for many channels including espn for pretty years so i don't want to knock it for that but i i was kind of blown away by that and i'm still processing the fact that peacock had a win because i i was ready it was it was it was at a 90 on my go 90 i was like the fact that it isn't getting snapped up by max right now shocked me and i still think it could happen yeah it i mean there there is an interesting thing of you have you have max you have paramount plus and you have peacock and i would be absolutely shocked if all three of those are three separate companies at the end of 2024 uh who buys who like it's there there have been lots of rumors that comcast which owns nbc universal and i guess disclosure is a nbc universal is a an investor in vox media we make a netflix show it's pretty good Alex loves Paramount Plus.

45:16There's all of our disclosures. I subscribed to Paramount Plus. There's been some rumors that Comcast is interested in buying Paramount Plus, which I think is directly to solve what you're talking about, which is that Peacock has rights to really cool things and just doesn't seem to be able to make a show that breaks through to save its life. Like Poker Face was the closest it got. But when was the last time you talked about Poker Face? You know what I mean? It won an Emmy. It did. And it's a great show. People should watch it. But Peacock has not broken through yet. It has lots of like singles and doubles, but it has not had sort of the giant win that you need.

45:48Paramount Plus had Emmys like five years ago. Yeah, right. Like I'm sure CBS All Access was out here winning awards. Like that's not how you get here. The good fight, baby. The good fight. But yeah. And then so there's been rumors that, you know, Warner Brothers Discovery, which owns Max, might be in acquisition mode. Paramount Plus might be selling to everybody. So I think there's some mix of stuff there that just seems like it's going to get sorted out over the next 12 months. But I'm going to I'm going to thumbs up on Peacock just because personally, it's very important to me as the place where I watch The Office and Parks and Recreation and Brooklyn Nine-Nine.

46:20But also because Comcast just seems to have gone all in on this, like in the way that I don't see Warner's Warner Brothers Discovery saying we need streaming to work. Comcast is saying we need streaming to work and it might kill it in the long run, but I don't think it kills it this year. I think Comcast is more likely to be a buyer than a seller this year, as far as I can tell. Yeah, that's right. Comcast is facing an existential crisis because everybody's stopping. And it's the same thing with Paramount. A lot of these people who are highly dependent on broadcast TV and basic cable are facing an existential crisis of what do we do next?

46:54We need a good streaming service. And so they're going to be very, very motivated in a way that Macs and Netflix and some of these other like the tech focus, the more tech oriented streaming services don't have to be. Totally. All right. So, Peacock, thumbs up or thumbs down? uh thumbs up but it's like i'm shocked to do that okay it's all it's all the sports it's all it's a begrudging thumbs up for peacock yeah i like it um all right two more to go apple tv plus oh thumbs up but that's just because i've been watching a bunch of the shows that are coming palm royale incredible i don't know what all i'm allowed to say about that it's great awesome yeah if you like food you'll probably have a great time with it uh manhunt which is about the hunt for John Wilkes Booth after the assassination of Lincoln is certainly a show.

47:41And it's coming and some people are going to watch it, some people are not. It's still got stuff like For All Mankind just wrapped its fourth season. A fifth season is coming. Foundation is still doing really strongly for them. They continue to be the best place to watch science fiction. Another season of Severance should be coming in 2024. It's shooting as we speak. So I'm really bullish on it. It exists entirely at like the permission of Tim Cook. I think it is one of those things where if Tim Cook leaves and we get another CEO in and he doesn't care or she doesn't care as strongly about science fiction and weird like heady shows, it could be in dire straits.

48:20But for now, it's doing really strongly. It's got some of the best programming out there. I agree. I actually think other than Netflix, Apple TV Plus would be my bet to be kind of the big winner of the streaming wars of 2024. Apple has all the money in the universe. Its hit rate is, I would say, the best of anyone in the streaming game right now. It's gotten really good. Yeah. So it's gotten to the point where like I will watch the first episode of almost anything that comes out on Apple TV Plus just because the odds of it being good seem to be higher than almost any other service. So I think you're right that I would it wouldn't be shocking if all of a sudden they just canceled the whole thing because it's sort of immaterial to Apple.

48:57but at the same time Apple is relying on Apple TV plus to sell vision pros and give you stuff to do in your vision pro it's a way to sell iPhones it's a way to get people into the service business like I I just don't I don't see that being a problem so I'm I'm with you I'm a hard thumbs up I believe the almost exact opposite about the last one on our list which is Amazon Prime Video this is I would say my hardest thumbs down of the year really because Amazon is in a place of trying to be more thoughtful about where it invests. It has invested an enormous amount of money in a lot of things that don't work on Prime Video.

49:32And I think this service is going to look more and more like Amazon sports streaming and less and less like Netflix over time. I think this is not going to be a good year for Prime Video. Yeah. Amazon Prime has triggered up not had a lot of hits. You have The Voice, you have Reacher, which I just started watching yesterday. It's fine. you've got jack ryan you've got a lot of like manly shows football dudes like that's the dynamic here right and then you got wheel of time which i'm told i really need to watch season two it's a delight but i'm being told that i haven't felt the urge to watch it same with lord of the rings the rings of power like lord of the rings is an absolute boondoggle the most expensive tv show ever made and how many people watched it and how many people it certainly isn't driving subscriptions like and you know what's wild is the second biggest boondoggle i can think of is probably citadel the other yes massively high budget flop on prime video yeah they have spent money stupidly they are probably the after netflix the most guilty of of embracing zero percent interest rates to make garbage yes they've got a leadership crisis as far as the streaming service goes they can print money though that's that's the one thing they can do because they just they've they're forcing ads on every single subscriber which means they're going to be able to print money anytime you you decide to say check out that read your show because everybody keeps talking about the large man, you're going to be stuck watching.

50:51You're going to make them money. So it is definitely one of those things where I think it is going to rapidly become something that Amazon forgets they own. And the sports will do well. And those couple of shows that rise to the top will do well. And that's all we're going to see. They're really good at buying movies that are already out in the marketplace. They've gotten really smart about that. Saltburn is an example of that. So I suspect we're going to see more of that and then just going and buying other people's stuff and putting it on rather than trying to program it themselves, which is probably for the best because they haven't been very good at programming it.

51:24Yeah. Amazon going back to being essentially a subscription, like movie rental thing. Fine. Right. Like when I rent movies, I rent it mostly through Amazon because it's easy and the application works pretty well. And like, that's all fine and good. But as a cultural powerhouse streaming service, I just don't see it. And I think if I'm an Amazon executive looking for ways to pull back, like, oh, all of that money we spent on these shows that no one likes and watches, maybe that's a good place. And they've started doing that, right? They canceled a ton of stuff last year. They renewed stuff and then went back and they canceled it.

51:59I believe they pulled some stuff from their service as well. They themselves know that nobody's really watching it and they need to just kind of like— that's why they added the ads. It's a win-win for them. The few people who are watching, they can make some extra money off of them. Yeah. And if you want to pay three more dollars a month to watch their bad shows to Nazi ads, Amazon wins again. Yeah. All right. So just to recap, before we wrap up here, we're both thumbs up on Netflix. You can change your mind now. This is your last chance. I'm still tentatively thumbs up on Netflix. Yes. Disney Plus, we're two thumbs down with a Hulu sized asterisk.

52:35Hulu, we are two thumbs up with a Disney Plus sized asterisk. Max, you're thumbs up. I'm thumbs down. Paramount Plus, you're thumbs up. I'm thumbs down. you're very optimistic about streaming this year. I like this for you. It's going to be a fun year for streaming, business-wise. Well, what's interesting is I think the thing that might make me most wrong is that because of the strike last year, there's just going to be a glut of good stuff this year and next year. So I think all of my potential doomsday predictions, I might just be a year or two too early on, which is the thing I'm most nervous about.

53:07But I'm holding fast to my beliefs here. Peacock, we're both thumbs up. I would say me slightly more aggressively than you. Mine is just a Michael Scott sized thumbs up at all times. Apple TV plus we're both thumbs up and prime video. It sounds like we're both thumbs down. Yeah. Okay. That's right. All right. I like it. All right. Rapid fire. And then we're going to get out of here. Give me two other predictions. You have anything at all about the streaming world this year that I can hold you against at the end of the year. I think Hulu is going to be merged into Disney plus this year. I don't know what the name of that.

53:39that service is going to be presumably Disney Plus. Maybe it'll be Star. Who can say? But I think that's going to happen this year. And the other one is we're going to not be talking about ads as much this year. Oh, interesting. Okay. I think ads is a huge part of this deal. And I think you and I will probably be talking about it much, a lot. But I think the general public is not going to be thinking about ads on their streaming services this year. It's rolled out. It's happening. Everybody's got it. They're all going to be making a lot of money off of it. And they're all going to start behaving more like broadcast TV in order to make those advertising dollars sing.

54:13But I think you and I, like the general public is not going to notice much of that this year. We'll notice it in a couple of years. I think that's probably right. And that's actually kind of related to my first prediction, which is that the fast, the ad supported channels like Tubi and Freevi and Pluto and that stuff that's out there now. I think that's going to have another huge year. That's been growing a lot. We've talked about it a bunch. But I think now that ads are going to be everywhere, you're going to see advertisers say, oh, well, we're advertising all over streaming. Let's put even more into some of these fast channels that are growing really fast.

54:43And also viewers are going to say, oh, well, I'm looking at ads everywhere. What difference does it make? I'm going to go find these other services that are free and don't make me log in. And all of a sudden that ease of user experience, if there's ads anyway, it's a big win. So I think that stuff is going to continue to grow. It's a mess right now. Like there's tons of channels. There's actually a lot of good stuff out there, but trying to find it is bad. And so what I think might happen is one of these big services might, as a way to get into the ad business even more, adopt a lot of these fast channels and actually make a good interface out of it.

55:17So I'm hopeful that that's what happens this year. And I think it's going to be big. I think it's going to be Paramount+. I'm just saying that they own Pluto. They've already got a bunch of kind of fast channels already on their service. I can see them being really smart about that in a way everybody else isn't. That's a good take. And the guy who founded Pluto is now running Paramount Plus as well. Oh, yeah. He's running both now. So like I said, I'm still very bullish on that one. Otherwise, I think it would be Max, and Max would be dumb not to. Well, I'm excited for all of that to become a Peacock feature in 2024.

55:48It's going to be sick. And then my other prediction is that someone, I don't know who, but someone is going to actually build a universal streaming guide that is useful and good. and will probably cost money, but will be absolutely worth every penny. I don't know. Maybe it'll be the Apple TV app. Maybe it'll be one of the like, just watches are real goods of the world. But like, this is such a big problem. And as all these companies go to ads, they want you to find their stuff better. So like Netflix now has an actual incentive for me to be finding Netflix shows more easily. And so I think somebody is going to figure out how to put all this stuff together in a way that I can actually find the stuff I want to watch more easily.

56:27That might be a pipe dream, But boy, am I hoping that's right. Yeah, I love this for you. I think if it happens, it's not happening this year. I think it's going to take Netflix a little time to realize they need everybody else. So like 25, 26, I can see them finally being like, oh, yeah, we should play nice with everybody else. But until then, Netflix is going to be like, nah, screw you guys. We got Stranger Things. It's coming back. Don't worry about it. I get 11 months to believe in this before it becomes very obvious how wrong I was. Let me have this. Everybody root for David. I'm rooting for you.

56:56I want this, so I'm rooting for you. I appreciate that. I appreciate that. All right, we got to take a break and then we're going to come back and we're going to do a hotline question. Actually, Alex, will you stick around for a minute? This hotline question is kind of exactly for you. I love it. Let's do it. All right, we'll be right back.

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59:33all right we're back let's do a question from the verge cast hotline as a reminder new year new hotline you can always email verge cast at the verge.com and ask us your questions or call 866 verge 11 to reach us we try and answer at least one question on the show every week we got a ton of good ones over the holidays actually so i think we're gonna have to do like an all hotline episode here in the very near future but for this week we have a question that Alex, this could not be more you centric. So let's hear it. Hey, Virg team, this is Wes from Texas. I'm calling to see if Krantz found any cool e-ink tech at CES.

1:00:08Would love to get the rundown. Thanks. Ooh, I did see some e-ink tech while I was at CES. Tell us more. So some of it, it was a lot of concept stuff. There was obviously the e-ink toilet that we all saw from Kohler, which I think was a surprise to everyone including e-ink including potentially Kohler like you get the sense some one person made that and they were just like is this something and they're like c.e.s let's do it just bolted it on right when they got there like this is fine nobody will notice yeah so I got I got to go to the e-ink booth they they don't actually have like a show floor presence anymore they're mainly just taking meetings but I went into their meeting room and got to see all of their stuff and they have like all of the new all of their different displays there it's a lot of signage stuff they're still very very focused on the signage in a way the rest of us aren't but there was some phones from i believe it's like the fifth largest smartphone maker in the world have you heard of infinix no with an x fifth lord jesus not in america but in other places they had the back of their one of their phones has the prism e-ink technology on it which is what we saw from bmw a couple of years back and what we also saw lenovo had a cool laptop with the same tech on the front of it this year.

1:01:22Like once every four years, somebody tries the what if we put an e-ink screen on a smartphone thing, and I'm here for it every single time. And in both cases, instead of being like, what if you could read a book on the back of your phone? Both companies are like, what if you could just make the back of your laptop or the back of your phone look really cool? Oh, interesting. It's like a wallpaper thing more than anything. Yeah, 100 percent, because it does like three to four colors, but it does them really, really well, including white. It makes like a really vibrant white, which you usually don't get from e-ink.

1:01:47and then you get like you choose a couple other colors you have to pre-program it it's not going to just let you read a book and scroll or anything like that it's really signage technology and it looked cool and you'd be able to charge your phone with wireless charging and just have the back look however you want it instead of being like oh i need a green phone you'd be like oh i can have a stupid person on the back of my phone i don't know homer simpson i was like what's a cartoon character i want on the back of my phone homer so that that was really cool i was really excited about that. The Lenovo was obviously really, really cool.

1:02:20Other than that, there was a lot of the smart home people are tossing e-ink in as like kind of little displays for sensors and things like that. We saw a couple of those from smaller brands. That's not a new thing. Eve's been doing that for a while, but it's nice to see other people adopt it. And as much as I begged V to suddenly have seen a really cool e-ink watch, she didn't to my knowledge. So I blame V entirely for that? Not the smartwatch makers. It's all Victoria's fault. Please tell her to fix that. But yeah, the phone was really cool. And the way that these companies were just like, wait, e-ink doesn't need to be about reading.

1:02:57It doesn't have to be a display. It can just be really cool wallpaper and give you customization on a device where you traditionally haven't had it. And I want that. That's kind of less ambitious than what we've heard from e-ink over the years, but is also probably more practical. They're like, this isn't going to be the year e-ink becomes a television. Like it's not. This isn't going to be that year either. But they're like, this is a thing it's actually useful for. And this is something you can do now. And that actually, that tracks for me. Yeah. And, you know, I spoke with the e-ink folks and they're still very focused on signage.

1:03:27That's where they make the most of their money. That's what's doing really, really well for them. That's what they're bullish on. And they're like, we get really excited when people experiment and put it in other things, toilets and tablets and phones. But this is our focus. And so watching these companies be like, oh, maybe we should also lean into that signage part of it. It's nice. Hopefully next year we get something with really cool refresh rate. That's what I really want. Finally, give us full color and fast refresh rate and I will buy all e-ink everything. That's the life I want to live.

1:03:57I will note Onyx Books, who makes a lot of the e-ink tablets that I really like. I love that company. They weren't at CES. So they'll probably announce, I would expect in the next couple of weeks, probably ahead of Mobile World Congress is where we'll see their announcements. And so we'll probably get some really cool stuff then. I like it. So thumbs up, thumbs down, E-Ink 2024. How do we feel? I mean, I'm always thumbs up. I wish I could be thumbs down. Like, that's just bias. Like, it's totally biased on my part. We saw a lot of cool technology announced last year that's getting a little more mature and companies have had a year to figure out what to do with it.

1:04:33So we're going to see some of that in the marketplace, particularly around Color E-Ink and Color E-Ink readers. I saw a really cool one that was using Color E-Ink and that e-ink booth i can't remember the name of it right now i think it was the big me one onyx books also had one and it looked really really cool but i want to see it not in a booth i want to like spend more than a minute with it to say how cool it is but the color e-ink is getting a lot less goofy yeah like the amount of time i have spent waiting for just this one little thing that's like just give me a color kindle we're so close to like amazon or i'm really hoping amazon amazon on notice.

1:05:08Like we've got Panos now. Panos, get out there. You better have taken like 40 ,000 meetings with E Ink at CES. I want to see some color Kindles. Let's do it. Man, if Panos fixes the Kindle after making the whole Surface line a thing, he'll be a legend forever. A legend. Panos, I know you're listening. Do it for us. Do it for the Verge cast. Please. All right, Alex, we got to get out of here. Thank you as always. You're welcome. As always, there is tons more on everything we talked about, TikTok, streaming, the works at theverge.com. And we'll put lots of links in the show notes. So look out for that.

1:05:40This show is produced by Andrew Marino, Will Poore, and Liam James. The Vergecast is a Verge production and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. If you have thoughts, feedback, feelings, favorite TikTok sounds, or just eating gadgets you want us to know about, you can always email vergecast at theverge.com. Alex, Neelai, and I will be back on Friday to talk about AI, elections, the Apple Watch, the Vision Pro, and a whole bunch more. We'll see you then. Rock and roll.

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