Agentic AI and the new delegation of consumer choice

0:09Hello and welcome back to the WALK podcast. I'm Anna Hamill. As artificial intelligence continues to reshape the customer journey, commerce is one of the key areas of focus. Landmark new research by PhD in partnership with WALK looks at how the advent of AI agents is reshaping the customer journey and assesses the implications for marketing as decision making increasingly evolves from human consumers to machine intermediaries. While global consumers will still make most purchase decisions on their own, in the next few years, AI agents will increasingly shape what gets seen, shortlisted and bought.

0:46More than$944 billion of global consumer spend will be facilitated by Agentic AI this year, equivalent to 1.3 % of all private consumption worldwide. But the growth trajectory is the real story here. This research projects that total Agentic-facilitated consumer spending will trickle to$3.35 trillion by 2030. To succeed in this new world, marketing is facing a dual challenge. Brands must build the skills, data and operating models needed to influence AI recommendation engines, while also remembering that it is people, not agents, who will ultimately buy. Joining us today to discuss some of the key findings and what it means for brands are Rohan Tambaraja, Worldwide Chief Strategy Officer at PhD, and Walk's Chief Content Officer, David Tiltman.

1:35But before we talk to them, a quick message from our sponsor.

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2:16Rohan, David, welcome to The Walk Podcast. Great to be here. There's been a lot of conversations in the industry over the last 12 months in particular about how brands must now influence not just human consumers, but also the AI agents making or shaping those decisions. At Walk, we've called this the two audience problem. It's something we've covered a few times on the podcast this year. And of course, it was also a big topic in Cannes a few months ago. David, what does this new research add to what we already know about the space and how it's changing? Yeah. So just to sort of go back a few months when we started talking to the team at PhD about this, we know this is one of the biggest topics in the industry at the moment and not just AI, AI is a huge topic, but how the new generation of AI-based tools, LLMs and increasingly agents based around them are altering the consumer's path to purchase and the way consumers discover information.

3:21So yes, you're quite right. We've seen a lot of this in the last few months. We had a podcast on what is called System 3 Thinking a few months ago. We had Jellyfish in Cannes talking about this two audience problem and how to resolve it. We can touch on some of those as we get through this. What I think this research does, which is really interesting, is start to look at this as a category by category issue, because the big issue we have in marketing is assuming that every category works in the same way every brand works in the same way and that marketing must therefore work in the same way so what this starts to do is put a category lens on this transition to ai based or ai influenced shopping and consumption opportunities um looking at that at a as i say at a category level and trying to put some kind of number against what that might be worth, what the value of that is, as a way to help marketers sort of understand where their category might sit and some of the considerations they might need to make when they're planning over the next one to three years.

4:32And the research goes up to 2030. So it's that sort of medium term time frame and how people can best respond to the emerging environment. Rohan, why does this research matter right now to you and your clients? Well, look, there's been a fairly open-ended discussion about AI and agentic AI, more specifically, which kind of veers on one side from the utopian to the dystopian on the other side. And at one end, we're talking about new opportunities to create value for brands and businesses. We're talking about rebalancing teams, removing low value, high repetition tasks and refocusing that resource towards upstream or strategic and creative business additive disciplines.

5:20But on the other side, we're talking about the destruction of the labor market potentially within the industry model, disruption to legacy business models, and also the homogenization of output and the optimization towards mediocrity, which was talked a lot about at Cannes. So the aim of this research was really to take a more singular view into this opportunity and focus much more specifically on the consumer facing opportunity. And by that, look at the size of revenue opportunity and therefore the business case in purchases that will be mediated or automated by Identic AI through to 2030. And as part of this, we built a model which looked at criteria like the decision complexity behind a transaction, the value of a transaction, the frequency of that transaction, and combine this with more structural factors like data availability in the market, the regulatory environment in that market.

6:19And as noted earlier, we did so across categories where you see a significant variance because of the nature and difference of that buyer behavior in the category and also across markets where the variance is much more structural. It's really interesting stuff. So let's dig into those categories quickly. So we know that agentic AI is already making a mark on global consumer spending, but it's particularly happening within high frequency digitally measurable categories, such as travel and transport, food, media. Rohan, what are the characteristics of categories most impacted by the move toward agentic commerce and what are the different ways AI is impacting them?

6:59I'm going to take a step back, if that's right, Anna, and look at what this is a reaction to. And that's what I would call the abundance problem. If we look at the state of the marketing ecosystem right now, it's clearly an environment which is awash with too much content, too much choice, too much complexity, right? So if you look at some of the data points, if we look at media time averaged over a 10-year period, it's gone up quite marginally. It's gone up by about five percentage points. If we look at where people are spending that time, that's gone up a lot more significantly. So fragmentation, people are spending their time in a lot more places and spaces that they have done historically.

7:42But where it gets interesting is when you look at what is filling that time and space, and the answer to that is a lot of content. So the volume and velocity of content over that same period has grown by about 1 ,357%. That is what we're pumping into the pipes of these platforms right now. And of course, we are dealing with the finite attention and the finite mental capacity of consumers' minds. The impact to marketers has been declining effectiveness. So we've seen the correlation between marketing investment and and marketing return, the excess shareable correlation in a steady decline over the last 10 years or so.

8:23We've seen revenue ROIs go up, but that's because people are spending less on individual activities. You dig a bit deeper and actually when you look at profit ROIs, which is then factoring the cost of making the activities, those have dropped off significantly. So there's a real pressure on the model and its ability to deliver return at the moment. That's from the marketer's side, if you were to look at it from the consumer's perspective, for them, abundance is having to manage more and more and more. And that's just untellable. And the behavioral response from consumers is delegation. Right now, it's delegation to large language models.

9:01So if I'm prompting, find the best one, that is delegating discovery. If I'm prompting, plan this for me, That is delegating orchestration. If I'm prompting, book this for me, that's delegating action. And that is a behavior that is growing quite significantly, delegation. So if you look at the composition of prompts, about 1.4 billion prompts going into large language models per day are delegation prompts. And this has changed the composition of web traffic quite interestingly. Cloudflare reported an 8 ,000 % year-on-year increase in traffic from agents to websites. And the reason for that is if I was to delegate the planning of a trip, I might look at booking.com, I might look at British Airways, I might look at Airbnb.

9:54An agent that you delegate it to is going to go and look at 200 websites. So this is where you've got this huge spike in agent-based traffic coming out of these websites. So to your point or question, Anna, the key characteristic of categories is not necessarily whether the purchase is cheap or expensive. It's whether the decision is a delegable decision and whether delegating brings some benefit to the consumer in doing so. And certainly what we see when we look at some of the categories that we analyzed in the report, yes, it is absolutely categories like travel, like financial services, like food and groceries, right?

10:34And you can broadly put these into two buckets, categories that are low involvement and low enjoyment. So I don't really want to spend a great deal of time thinking about what toilet roll I want to buy. It's a functional decision. I'm perfectly happy for an agent to automate that. And then the other sort of space that categories of living is in high involvement, but low enjoyment, right? If I'm renewing my mortgage, which I am at the moment, it's a real pain. Having an agent mediate, filter, curate choice, not necessarily transact it. I wouldn't trust an agent to just go and commit me to five years at a certain rate.

11:12But it's certainly facilitating and removing some of the complexity in a very high involvement, but low enjoyment category. You might then look at something like luxury, which is the complete counter, which is a pure high enjoyment, high involvement category. And, you know, the joy of shopping does not go away. If I'm going to buy a Chanel handbag for my partner, actually, I want to go into a store. It's part of the experience. Right. And, you know, those categories tend to be quite immune to disruption of that nature.

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12:31Let's dig into the framework from the report, the four modes framework. So each one of those represents a mode of marketing which requires strategy, capability, design, and of course, creativity. Can you give our listeners a quick overview of the four modes framework? And then we can jump into the detail of how brands can self-assess their position within it. This is a model that we've built to help marketers and agencies build a map and the system of how the new shape of opportunity is emerging. I will caveat this hugely and go back to that, the famous quote that all models are wrong, but some are useful.

13:10And I think, I hope that this is useful to some degree because it aims to distill the shape of opportunity into some fundamental modes of marketing. Some modes are focused on building meaning difference and salience with people. Others are focused on influencing machine logic. So there's four modes. Some of them will be very familiar with, right? So the first mode is brand to consumer. This is the largely traditional world of advertising. It's about probably 95 % of what we do. Run ads, communicate them to consumers through media at scale. The second mode is consumer to consumer. And this is where influence comes through creators, communities, reviews, word of mouth, culture.

13:57Obviously, a growing category is the creator industry matures, but quite fundamental for building human preference. But below that, you've got these two net new modes, which are really focused on influencing the agent. The first is agent to consumer. The second is agent to agent. Agent to consumer is where the brand would build an agent which would act as a gateway to their products and services and effectively act as a agentic front door to the brand and everything that sits within it. So agent to agent is where we get into the automation opportunity where an agent acting on behalf of the consumer communicates, negotiates or transacts with an agent that is acting on behalf of the brand.

14:47And that's where that automation happens. It's an agent to agent based negotiation where the aim is for the agent that is working for the consumer to get the best out of negotiating with an agent that's working for the brand or the service. So four modes, they're not discrete. They're designed to work in a system. There is an interplay that needs to be designed between these, but we found them quite useful in distilling down the fundamental needs for what marketing teams need to develop to excel in each of these, but also work out the connectivity between them so they work as a system rather than in isolation.

15:26Really interesting. David, what resonates within these frameworks from what you're talking to brands about? in terms of how they're dealing with their challenges in this space? What I think's interesting about this particular framework is it's not, although it's got AI embedded in it, it's got other things in there as well. So that idea that consumer to consumer is an emerging mode as well as agent to consumer and agent to agent. So what I like about it is it's quite a holistic look at what is going on in categories at the moment. And I think particularly if we look at the sort of categories that are most likely to end up in that agent to agent quadrant things like financial services travel and transport telecoms and utilities what you can see is a kind of through line from what's happened in in the past 10 years in those categories the rise of things like price comparison websites or travel intermediaries or those sorts of things these are already categories where the level of digital disruption is quite high and consumers are looking for support for what are quite big decisions from online sources.

16:38So there's a really interesting sort of continuation. Yes, this is accelerating certain trends, but it's doing so within sort of slightly established parameters. And I think that's a useful framework to look at what's happening there, where you get things like automotive or alcoholic drinks. That's in a different quadrant. That's still in the brand to consumer quadrant because maybe those are completely different types of purchase. So I think understanding the type of purchase in your category and what's already happened to those sorts of purchases and how AI transforms that. Yes, it sounds sort of obvious, but this gives us a framework to start to think about it.

17:20And as Rohan says, all frameworks are wrong, but some are useful. And this one is, I think, genuinely useful. So how should brands determine which mode their category or product currently occupies? And the second part of that question would be what indicators signal a shift from one mode to another over time? Rohan, do you want to kick us off? Yeah, sure. I mean, what the research identifies is there is a center of gravity for categories across those four modes. You know, as David outlines, travel, telecoms, financial services have a huge potential to be disrupted by AI and Energetic because of the nature of category buyer behavior, right?

18:02That's fundamental. However, we do believe that all brands will need to play in all categories to varying degrees. And yes, you might have more automation or agent-assisted behavior in financial services. However, that doesn't mean the value of a meaningful and different and salient brand means something to people goes away. Far from it. There's a real danger with this agent-based space that marketers over-bias towards optimizing towards machine-based audiences and towards machine visibility. Much like, to your point earlier, David, certain brands really doubled down on trying to win in price comparison sites.

18:47It really is the extension of that to some degree. And in that instance, you had brands like DirectLine, who famously moved off price comparison and sites and doubled down on brands and kind of won the choice in consumers' minds before they even got down to that level. So we talk about the bottom two modes of agent to consumer and agent to agent as very necessary to play in for most categories. But if you solely play in those areas, there's a real danger because the machine is effectively surfacing and scoring products based on functional attributes alone, right? They don't perceive emotional difference in any way.

19:29So there's a risk that if you overplay in these two modes, your brand starts to move towards commodity status and chosen based on very functional attributes. So we see it as really, really important to, yes, play in those spaces, but elevate above what we call the line of indifference and be meaningful to machines, appeal to machine logic, but also build something that really resonates with humans. And that kind of interplay in designing for meaning and machine logic needs to play out across those four modes. So they're all important. And I kind of look at them as a graphic equalizer, where each mode sort of has a different setting based on the nature of the category that's at play.

20:15That's a really good metaphor. What are some of the most common challenges brands face when adapting their marketing strategies to address both human and agentic audiences across all of those modes we just talked about. Rohan, do you want to start? And then I'll come to you, David. Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, if you were to put something at the center of those four modes, it's the brand and its strategy, its positioning, its proposition. And I think we're at a really interesting time right now where, you know, we've gone from this historical way of building brand strategy where we would build a brand framework which would usually live on PowerPoint and it would have characteristics within it like tone of voice, behavior, personality.

21:01And those were static attributes largely used to inform a creative brief or a marketing strategy. In this new world those actually become living characteristics and it changes the nature of what a brand is. Some people are talking about this as living brands, right? And, you know, for marketing teams, you've almost got to design your brand. I'm sort of honing in a phase of kind of one brand at two resolutions, right? You've got to have a brand at the resolution of consumer resonance and a brand at the resolution of machine relevance. But it's got to come from the same point. So I think it's really, really important for marketers to start to think about how when they build their brand strategy, there's almost a layer of meta context that sits underneath the brand strategy, which is codifying some of the distinctive attributes of that brand that differentiates the functional benefits, the emotional benefits, as it's kind of metadata that sit beneath the brand proposition.

22:09because that's the stuff that's machine readable ultimately. So you've got to start at the level of brand strategy and start to design brands that have this kind of dual purpose. As I say, one brand adds two resolutions because that is how you play out to this kind of duality of human meaning and machine logic together. David, even as Argentic takes up more of the marketing conversation, what are those key elements of effective advertising that brands still need to think about on top of what Rohan is talking about here? Yeah, so I just want to build on what Rohan says. I think it's really, really fascinating, this idea of the living brand.

22:49And in some ways, this pushes us towards a much broader concept of what building a brand is. When we've used the term brand building in marketing and advertising over the last 10 years, we've become very focused on the communications aspect of that. What are we saying in our advertising? And brand building to some degree has become synonymous with advertising, whereas obviously what drives changes in brand equity is a much broader thing than just advertising. If anything, the developments in AI and frameworks like the one we're talking about, where a market can look at different resolutions or modes of operation, forces us to actually recognize that brand building is a multidisciplinary act and it's something that takes place across the business so to come back to your question which is about well you know what are the key elements of effective advertising well firstly just as Rohan stated it's like it doesn't change the need to be distinctive but is that distinctiveness able to be captured in a machine readable way um it doesn't change the the need to be consistent we know consistency is important but again what does that consistency mean it's not just consistency in terms of looking the same way or telling the same story every time it's consistency between what we're saying through our advertising and what people are saying about us elsewhere so all of a sudden earned media and reputation and all the things that maybe traditionally have sat in a different part of the business become really important.

24:33So it's a much more holistic view of building a brand than we've seen. But I think that's a positive development. I think that forces us to ask more grown-up questions. Yeah, this technology is on a massive growth trajectory and it does feel like every three months there's a new pivot brands need to make to stay ahead of the curve. How can brands gain that competitive edge when this whole area is moving so quickly? And what's the risk, I guess, of waiting, David? So there's a glib answer to that question, which is, oh, you're going to be behind the market, etc, etc. But actually, everybody is learning here.

25:10Everybody is discovering. I think there's a dangerous, Rohan says, of overcorrecting. So we saw this with random performance. Everybody massively corrected into performance and then worked out a little bit late that actually they needed to keep investing in brand building. So it's not about, look, we used to do this thing. Now we're going to do something completely different. It's ensuring that, and again, using the framework that we've talked about so you understand the nuance of your category. it's about understanding where your consumers are and keeping up with the way consumers are finding information about your category and making investment decisions and maybe looking at you know if there's a sort of bell curve of adoption what is happening within the sort of far right of that bell curve what are the emerging behaviors that you think may become more mainstream over the next five to ten years or I think again rooting it in category consumption is absolutely key because that will inform you as to where uh where you need to go next really good insights Rohan what's your take how can brands gain that competitive edge and alleviate the risk of moving too slowly yeah I mean how you test and learn and do so in a in a controlled experimentative manner is quite fundamental here.

26:31And actually, if you look at some of the examples emerging right now, there are some really powerful tests in the agent-to-consumer and agent-to-agent space that are pioneering what the shape of this type of brand interaction will look like. Citibank have an offering called Sky at the moment, and that is an avatar, so a human-like avatar that sits over the entirety of their banking service offering. And you can have a natural language conversation with this virtual entity, and it is pulling out really detailed financial information from its knowledge bank. It is connecting into your account in a safe, gated, protective way.

27:26And it's simplifying the parameters of access to some quite complex financial information. And, you know, that you've always got to go back to the use case, right? You know, is that a better model of interaction than what we had previously, which was a website that was full of quite complex content? The answer is probably yes. the answer is this is a much more humanized way of bringing your brand to life through an avatar that can service the right information around your needs and give you financial advice as a consequence of their understanding to you. So I think that level of experimentation is really, really important.

28:12The other side, just to kind of riff off David's point, because I've been feeling also having kind of lived through this for you know a decade and a half the kind of performance trap that you fall into when you start to see the the short-term benefits of working within these agent-to-agent or agent-to-consumer spaces the power of a a great brand does not go away and there is now all of a sudden another big discussion in the industry about strategic moats and a lot of the very classical strategic moats have disappeared. There is no technology moat now because the frontier models keep on evolving and adapting so quickly and marketers and agencies are struggling to keep up.

29:01Actually, one of the biggest moats that companies have right now and potentially one of the last legally defensible strategic levers that you have is brand. And, you know, whilst we don't have the kind of longitudinal effectiveness data on this, brand building might be more important in this new world than it is today. Right. So we're not standing here and saying, right, you need to shift all of your communication and marketing investment down towards the bottom and agent to agent and agent to consumer based communications. No, absolutely not. You need to build a brand that means something to people.

29:38much in the same way that we saw going back to your analogy of price comparison, which is we thought at that point, when you present a consumer with perfect information, they will make a rational choice. The human mind does not work like that. What would happen is they would see the different rates and they scroll down and they pick something that might be a little bit more expensive, but associated with a brand that they know and trust. Right. And that kind of human override is fundamental in this, right? But it's about getting the right balance. And I do not doubt that in the future, we will get to a Burnett and Field style rule of thumb, like 60-40, which of course is not 60-40.

30:21It will vary significantly by category, but we will get to something of that nature, which tells us how to apportion our marketing spends based on the total effectiveness that we have the opportunity to gain from marketing. Just bouncing off what you said about the models becoming more sophisticated over time, how do you foresee that four modes framework having to evolve as that happens? And of course, there are regulatory environments that are changing as well on this. Yeah, regulation is the big thing and regulation, privacy and security. With a lot of the models now, and I'd call out some of Anthropix's newer models like Fable 5 and Opus 5, where you have the ability to run them over browsers.

31:07and once they're sitting over a browser, they have access to absolutely anything that happens within a browser. That is a huge, huge danger potentially in consumer security and safety. So I think that there needs to be regulatory leaps to get us there. As always with big tech, the technology and the innovation is moving way faster than the regulation. But what we're starting to see now is some, finally, cooperation between the different big AI and big tech platforms amongst the banks to create standardized protocols and systems on how these things can be used and the parameters by which they can be used within.

31:52So Visa have made big steps into agentic transactions. Likewise, MasterCard, Demis Hasebis came out three or four days ago. with a call to create a global body to constrain the role of AI into certain use cases and not allow it beyond that. So the model will absolutely evolve within regulatory constraints as they catch up. But I think not to kind of over answer your question, Anna, I think the big interesting development we will see is a bit like the app ecosystem. We will have really well-designed agents that are part of an agent store or an agent ecosystem, which consumers start using and they place trust in that can go away and start to make and automate these decisions on their behalf.

32:44For example, if I was to have an agent called GrocerGraph and the job of that agent was to do my weekly shop. And what it did was go out and talk to the Waitrose buy-side agent, the Sainsbury's buy-side agent, the Tesco buy-side agent, and it would just negotiate what I want, what I need based on fastest fulfillment, price, stock availability, and that becomes an automated transaction. We're a bit away from that because of the regulation, but I think that is the shape of where we are going to, where we will have these personal agents working with us to negotiate the best possible deal from the suppliers, the brands, the retailers on the other side of that equation.

33:26The grocery bot sounds amazing. I'm all in on that one if it happens. So I want to get into how our listeners can apply some of the findings and recommendations of this research. So let's get into some practical applications. To be successful, what are the biggest things brands need to be prioritizing? David, do you want to go first? yeah so i for this i'm going to pick up some of the commentary that came out of can lions and and it's stuff that we've written about on walk and there's some good news here which is that although we're talking a lot about change and the way categories are going to change there are certain fundamentals that if you can get those fixed up front you're kind of serving both audiences uh now i'm going to base some of this on on a a session we had in can uh with insead and jellyfish but it's it's stuff that other people have written about as well so the two audience problem is that the machines the bots they don't respond in the same way to the kind of creativity that we love as humans so the way we communicate has to you have to think about it in two different ways you know what am i doing for a human audience to build that brand to uh and that's you know storytelling the emotional engagement all the sort of things that we we kind of know and love but then what am i how am i interpreting that for the machines the the you know how are i giving them the right context the right structure uh how making everything machine readable now the bit that sits in them if you imagine that as a kind of venn diagram the bit that sits in the middle are things like distinctive brand assets.

35:06Assuming the distinctive brand assets can be developed in a way that are machine readable, that the machines can recognize as well as the humans. So that's an existing concept just extended. And then the second one is things like category entry points. So this is obviously an idea promoted by the Ehrenberg Bass Institute, developed by the Ehrenberg Bass Institute and then heavily adopted elsewhere. But it is understanding the moments when your brand, your product, your service is most needed by a consumer and what those sort of consumption occasions might be and how you make a brand, your brand sort of come to mind at those moments.

35:52Now, if you can understand what those moments are for humans, can you understand what those moments are for machines as well? So, again, it's an extension of best practice. It's not a sort of completely new set of expectations. And I think that's the positive thing from what we've seen in the past year or so as people have started to explore this space, is that some of the best practice guidance we've already got can be extended into this new world. Rohan, what's your take? What's the biggest thing brands need to be prioritizing right now? I mean, I fully agree with everything David said. The two audience problem is an interesting one.

36:32I was with the CMO of the Global Bank last week, and he made a really interesting point, which was, I think this is a bit like B2B. And about 10 years ago, we all started to acknowledge that B2B was actually B2C, because you're speaking to a person at the other end, they just happen to represent a business. And actually, therefore, some of the fundamental laws of marketing science still apply. And I think the meaning to human, the readable to machines, as these AIs come to better understand and represent what a person want, I think that two audience problem is going to get closer and closer and closer and closer together.

37:11And it might end up that we are actually speaking to one audience and a machine can translate for us. The points around consistency and continuity are some of the most fundamental. What models do not respond to is you're changing your brand idea, you're changing your campaign because you're giving them inconsistent context to pick up on and you will be scored low in the model as a consequence. And then I guess the final point, and I think this is directly connected to the category entry points, is you've got to map the consumer journey. You've got to look at the journey through the category. and across that journey you will find there are moments where brand to consumer communication is really really really important.

37:52You'll find moments in that consumer journey they might be CEPs where the role of AI as either augmenting that part of the journey or automating that part of the journey is going to make it better for consumers. So we've always got to look at it through the lens of what is the net benefit to consumers here are we making their lives easier are we making this category easier to shop and more enjoyable to shop so you know it feels like a platitude that we we seem to consistently keep coming back to but start with the consumer and work out from there that's kind of really it yes we have all of this new machinery but it really comes back to what people want because the machines are ultimately set up to help get them what they want, albeit in a more efficient means than we perhaps had previously.

38:43That's really good advice and a great place to leave it. David, Rohan, thank you for joining me on The Walk Podcast. Thank you, Alan. Thank you so much. Thanks for having me. That's all we have time for on The Walk Podcast today. Thank you to Rohan and David for joining us. The source material for this discussion is the new report from PhD and Walk, titled From Abundance to Agents, How the Delegation of Choice is Transforming Marketing. This report and all of its data is available for all Walk subscribers to read in full right now, so be sure to check it out. If you've enjoyed this episode of The Walk Podcast, tap follow wherever you get your podcasts.

39:18Thanks for listening.