Cheat Sheet | Budget looms, Ukraine peace talks, Eze hat-trick

0:01Hello, you are listening to Cheat Sheet, the podcast that gets you up to speed with what you need to know in just 10 minutes. I'm Sophy Ridge.

0:08Sophy Ridge:And I'm Wilfred Frost. It's Monday the 24th of November. Here's what you need to know. So we are two days out from Wednesday's big budget. We're going to let you know what to expect. Talks between the US and Ukraine continue to try and narrow the gap between the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. David Cameron reveals he's been successfully treated for cancer. Plus, the North London derby, well, ended in tears for Tottenham fans. There's someone who is very, very happy, and that is Will Frost. We'll be talking about that for most of the 10 minutes. No, don't worry, we won't.

0:46So we are now only two days away from the budget. And, of course, so much speculation about what is going to happen. We know, of course, tax rises are coming. We know there are going to be some painful decisions for most people, it's got to be said. And there's also a warning from British Business to start the week. This is the CBI, the leading business body, I think it's fair to say, in the UK. And they are telling the Chancellor that she needs to change course, that she needs to make some hard choices and effectively not put tax on business. I mean, there'll be some people who say, look, business body says don't tax business.

1:20Surprise, surprise. But it's not a great way to start the week.

1:22Sophy Ridge:Yeah, and as you say, you wouldn't expect a different message from them. But the last budget a year ago clearly had quite a focal point on businesses. National insurance contributions for employers was the main tax-raising lever that the Chancellor pulled. So in that sense, they've kind of got a point where they say, well, if you do have to raise taxes again, you did us last year. It's got to fall elsewhere. And there's more speculation about where elsewhere will be. We'll keep speculating for the next couple of days. But confirmed over the weekend on the other side was where they're going to increase spending.

1:58Sophy Ridge:So lifting the two-child benefit cap that's going to cost a few billion a year and freezing rail prices this year. it. They would have gone up in January by RPI inflation plus 1%. So it would have been a 3 % or 4 % increase. That's not going to happen. That's going to cost a few hundred million pounds. But it does raise that question when you know taxes are going to go up, and you're putting up some spending as well. It just continues to raise that speculation, where's the tax rises going to come from? And can you really afford these extra spending increases at the same time? Yeah, I mean, the other spending increase that caught my eye was was the pension.

2:34The pensioners will receive above inflation rise to the state pension as well. That would be worth about£550 a year. And, you know, as you were saying, you know, it does mean that everyone's looking at what those tax rises are going to be. There's been a bit more speculation about it. It could be income tax, another two-year freeze on income tax thresholds until 2030. I mean, that is basically, you know, it's pretty much a rise in income tax, just not saying it on the tin, right?

3:01Sophy Ridge:And it's something she did in the opposite direction a year ago and got no credit for. So you look at the politics of it all and you think, gosh, you dropped the ball there because you didn't get credit for it last year. You'll probably get punished if you do it this year. The one overarching thing I would say that the markets will be looking at, Andy Burnham won't like me referring to the bond markets, but the markets will be looking at on Wednesday, isn't just are you raising taxes in the least bad way? It's do you show some indication of knowing that we also have to get spending in control in due course, even if you're not going to do it yet.

3:37Sophy Ridge:And that's where those small, but those little spending increases might worry the market. She's got to deliver the narrative perfectly, as well as the line items. Just finally on the budget, and I know we've been talking about it for a while, but it is quite important. The thing that I'm looking for is something that's difficult, is something that's unpopular. And in a way, it doesn't matter where it is. It could be a big tax rise, like putting up income tax, or it could be cutting welfare spending or making a really different spending choice. She's got to make some kind of difficult decision here.

4:10She can't get away with what people say is just a smorgasbord of little tinkering things here and there, hoping not to annoy anyone, hoping not to upset anyone. Sometimes in politics, you've got to be brave.

4:22Sophy Ridge:Now, it's been another massive weekend in peace negotiations, if we use that word, for the Ukraine-Russia war. They've been taking place in Geneva and specifically between the US and Ukraine after, as people will have seen last week, there was a peace plan put forward by the US that seemed really authored by the Russian side that Ukraine wasn't happy about. What I'd say from the noises coming out overnight, I don't think they're optimistic necessarily, but they're perhaps less pessimistic for the Ukraine and European view than late last week seemed. We've got a joint statement from the US and Ukraine that said they've agreed to an updated and refined peace framework and that intensive work is going to continue in the coming days.

5:11Sophy Ridge:America's top diplomat, Marco Rubio, said there'd been a tremendous amount of progress. I think we'll know that that progress is very real if we see President Zelensky come out and say, yes, this is a plan I'm happy with. Until we get to that point, again, I'd frame it as I did. this is perhaps slightly less pessimistic a moment the last 12 hours than the prior couple of days was from the Ukrainian European perspective. So the former Prime Minister David Cameron has revealed that he was diagnosed with prostate cancer last year. The good news is that his treatment worked, he was given the all clear.

5:47But the interesting thing is he told the Times that the reason he got checked was because his wife told him to, well done Samantha, after listening to an interview on the radio and he's now calling for more targeted screening to high-risk men on the NHS.

6:01Sophy Ridge:Yeah, amazingly high-profile revelation obviously joins people like Sir Chris Hoy, the Olympic champion, our friend Sky News former presenter Dermot Murnahan and others who have spoken up at certain moments to encourage more people to get tested where appropriate. He's gone a bit further than that in this interview and suggested there should be more widespread screening programs for men who fall into high-risk categories, which, again, we've started to see a lot of people call for. He makes the case that actually it's going to be cost-effective for the NHS long-term, not just the right thing to do in principle.

6:42Sophy Ridge:And clearly, Chris Hoy maybe, Dermot Moynihan have almost wider followings, but David Cameron has a sort of real perspective on when things fall into that category being worthwhile on the public purse. Yeah, totally. He's only 59 as well, isn't he? He looks like a kind of fit and healthy guy. It does give you pause for thought. Yeah, and he reflects in the interview about that moment. You dread hearing those words he said, the cancer word, and he reflects on how it rolled out of the doctor's mouth but he took a positive perspective and as you said, he took treatment Thankfully, the treatment seems to have worked.

7:23Sophy Ridge:Update on the latest headlines from the Middle East. Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group, says one of its high-ranking leaders has been killed. The high-profile aspect of this is it came from an Israeli strike in Lebanon's capital, Beirut. And that's the first time in many months that Israel has struck Beirut and Lebanon's health ministry says five people were killed, 28 others wounded. And of course, it does break the ceasefire agreement. It's something that, of course, is going to be watched very closely from here, even if the high value target in other circumstances might have made a legitimate attack.

8:07Right, I'm going to introduce this one because I think that we've got a problem with bias with our other presenter and I'm aware that they may be Spurs fans listening to this. So there was a big London derby game yesterday. Tottenham versus Arsenal. And Tottenham lost 4-1 at the Emirates. Which puts Arsenal six points clear at the top of the league. For those people who are just listening to this while and watching on YouTube, Wilf's currently fist-pumping right now.

8:35Sophy Ridge:You're watching them? I was certainly watching. Great results. Actually, I would say the headline of the weekend was that Manchester City and Liverpool lost. and we followed it up. I think Spurs made it quite easy for us. Their goalkeeper came out and acknowledged that afterwards. But yeah, I seized the moment and Ebreu Eze certainly did that. New signing this summer. Absolute legend. We love him. Hattrick. Just fantastic all round. And, you know, what I just say is top of the league, six points clear, but I still predict the leadership of the league will change again before the end of the season.

9:11Sophy Ridge:There's a long way to go. I've got an Eze story. Go for it. I saw him in a cafe and this was just before he signed for Arsenal. So it was that weekend when he was obviously not playing football. And he was there with loads of his family. And it was a really, it's not a posh cafe. It was a really normal, high street, independent, down to earth cafe. And I just thought, that's quite cool. What a guy. I love him even more. It's hard to continue to love him more, but it's possible. It wasn't the only derby this weekend. I'm sorry. Yeah, there was a Yorkshire Derby too. Sheffield Wednesday at Los 3-0 at Sheffield United.

9:48So it's, while Wilf is living, you know, the kind of football dream at the minute, I'm crushing in the kind of depths of despair. Although, you know, on the positive, trying to find some kind of positive, you know, this season's a bit of a write-off for us anyway. If we get a new owner in place for next season, then hopefully rebuild from there.

10:09Sophy Ridge:That does it for Cheat Sheet today. Thanks for listening. And email us, of course, any questions, any story suggestions, the email is cheatsheet at sky.com.

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