The migrant return scheme: One-in, none-out?

0:00How does a banana trigger a CIA-backed coup? Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order? What do LED lights say about the future of humanity? I'm Ed Conway, and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open, and reveal the world-shaping forces hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow. Coming up on The Daily, the first deportations to France were due to start this week. Have we finally found a solution to small boats? Or is this Labour's Rwanda moment?

0:41How does a banana trigger a CIA-backed coup? Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order? What do LED lights say about the future of humanity? I'm Ed Conway, and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open and reveal the world-shaping forces hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow. Hi everyone, Neil Patterson here with the Sky News Daily. Do hope you're well. Today we're talking one in, one out. No, not the revolving door policy at our embassy in Washington.

1:23Instead, it's the deal done with France to try and send back at least some of those who arrive here in small boats to claim asylum. Deterrence, that's the name of the game. Make people believe the trip just isn't worth the risk. Politically, the issue couldn't be hotter, as demonstrated by Government Minister Alex Davies-Jones on Sky's Breakfast Programme.

1:44Danny Shaw:Foreign criminals are being deported in the rate of thousands and we are going further, but it is important again that we get this right. But they were meant to start yesterday and legal challenges prevented it. Is that just going to stymie your efforts? These flights will take off as soon as they can. Will there be people on them? That's the point. Yeah, we're ensuring that we will be returning illegal migrants back to France under this returns agreement and we will be doing that as soon as it's physically possible. And will you let us know when you do and how many there are? I think what's important here is to be candid and be honest.

2:15That will be candid, telling us, telling the public via us how many people are on those flights.

2:19Danny Shaw:And we will as soon as we can. There's pressure to get moving as soon as possible. 150 ,000 people marched through London demanding action all the time. Reformer hoovering up votes from left, right and centre. Pun intended. But fundamentally, there's only one question needing an answer. Will it work? A little later, we're going to be speaking to our correspondent in Paris. First, though, Danny Shaw, Home Affairs commentator and formerly an advisor to the last Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper. Danny, good to see you again. Look, for those who don't fully understand what's going on, can you just explain the one-in-one-out policy?

2:55Well, the one-in-one-out policy was a deal negotiated by Yvette Cooper when she was Home Secretary with the French government. And it was signed at the beginning of August and came into effect then. And essentially what it is, is an agreement between the French and UK governments that will allow Britain to send back people who've arrived on illegal means by small boats, send them back to France, and in return, France will send the equivalent number of people who want to claim asylum in the UK to Britain. So that's why it's called One In, One Out. The idea behind it is that it will act as some kind of deterrent for people to make that crossing because they will know that there will be a risk that they will be returned to France.

3:49But to make it kind of palatable for the French, the UK has agreed that it will take an equivalent number of people if they apply properly and there's a process for doing that and as long as they're security checked. Are you in any way surprised that we are once again in a situation where the government wants to do something about this, but seemingly can't? Not at all surprised that there are legal challenges. You know, the first thing that happened after the treaty was signed was that dozens of people who'd come on small boats were detained by the government pending their removal back to France.

4:22They'd been held in immigration removal centres. They said then that the returns would take place within weeks, they hoped, by the end of September, the end of this month. But they haven't wanted to sort of be very public about the process. we've had to sort of winkle information out of the Home Office and other officials and other sources because I think the Home Office were always aware that firstly the numbers are going to be very small initially and secondly there will be legal challenges and obstacles and bumps on the road and the last thing they want is for there to be a huge fanfare about these flights and then for them not to happen.

5:00So it's no surprise to me that a flight hasn't taken off because each individual will have the right to contest their removal and engage immigration lawyers to do so. So I think it was inevitable that there will be legal challenges. Is there a way around those legal challenges? It's important to understand the process. So if someone comes across on a small boat and they are identified by the Home Office for removal back to France. If they claim asylum, their asylum claim will be considered inadmissible by the British authorities. That's the first step. And for a claim to be considered inadmissible, it means that they've travelled through a safe country, such as France, to reach Britain, or they have connections to a safe country like France.

5:50So they will challenge probably the inadmissibility finding. That will be the first thing that they will try to do. They may claim also that there are human rights grounds, there are reasons either if they're moved back to France that there'll be some kind of ill treatment that they'll suffer there. I think that's very difficult to make a successful claim based on that. France is a safe country. But they could also claim that while they've been in detention in Britain for a number of weeks, their mental health has deteriorated and there are medical reasons why they can't be sent back. So there's a number of different routes that they could try to block those claims.

6:29But I think it's important to say, Neil, that this is different from the Rwanda scheme. Rwanda was not considered to be a safe country for migrants by the UK Supreme Court. France is a safe country. It is safe for migrants to go back there. So that is not a claim that's going to succeed, certainly on that particular issue. But surely there is at least a parallel between the two schemes in that for there to be any deterrent effect, there have to be returns in significant numbers. What they want to do is probably set an example that they can do this, even with just a couple of migrants. And then once they've done it once, then it will be easier to ramp it up, you know, to kind of prove the concept, if you like.

7:11Look, the numbers are going to be small initially. There were reports when the treaty was first signed that it was going to be 50 per week being sent back to France. 50 per week, when there's an average of about 800 arriving by small boats every week, is a fraction. It's one in 16. That is not going to be a deterrent at those numbers, I do not think, because most people would take the risk of being returned to France. But if the numbers ramp up considerably more than that, then I think it could prove to be a deterrent. But we're a long way from that. Do you have confidence that there is a way for the government to get to the sorts of numbers that you are talking about, given those legal challenges, given the number of immigration lawyers that have been working in this field, and apparently working incredibly effectively in this field?

7:58I'm not convinced that they're going to get to the numbers for it to be a significant deterrent. You know, if they get to 50 per week and do that regularly that's something that certainly helps to some extent it might put off a few people from making that journey but I don't think that's going to be a sufficient deterrent I can't see them ramping it up to 300 400 people per week just because of the amount of processing the the logistics involved in that and also we in the UK would have to take an equivalent number as well for it to be made palatable for the French. And I think that could be problematic.

8:36So I've got really serious doubts that we're going to get the numbers where it will be deterrent. We'll be back with Danny in just a moment. Sky's Lisa Holland, though, headed to Paris on one of those flights that had been due to carry deportees. Lisa, we're speaking Tuesday lunchtime. The deportations were supposed to start this week. Have we seen anyone arrive yet? Well, important, Neil, to remind people that the government has said that the return of asylum seekers was imminent, but it didn't say specifically which day it planned to send people under its so-called one-in-one-out policy back to France.

9:15However, lots of organisations that our team's been speaking to on both sides of the channel, organisations that are offering support both legal advice and other kinds of support various charities to these migrants have been filling the space if you like with the information that they have because some of them are in direct contact with the migrants who the government is trying to send back to France and so it was these organisations which were saying as far as they understood it they thought that there potentially could be someone on the very first flight of the day from Heathrow to Paris yesterday morning.

9:52That didn't happen. And then also on a flight which left at about quarter past three yesterday afternoon, Monday afternoon, which myself and my cameraman were on, that didn't happen either. So we had a kind of scenario whereby the government's saying, look, this policy will be enacted this week. Someone will be sent back. The returns are imminent. The charities are saying, look, we think that they're going to be on those flights. So you can imagine we're sitting there, checking in, thinking what's going to happen, and in the event nothing happened. And even if this scheme does get up and running, the numbers being sent from the United Kingdom to France are still going to be dwarfed by the numbers getting into boats and travelling from France to the UK?

10:34Yeah, I mean, the number of people crossing the channel by a small boat is already up 40 % on the same period this time last year. More than 30 ,000 migrants have crossed the channel in small boats. Of course, the government hopes that or put people off because who wants to be the one that is sent back? It's a bit of a roulette. But having said all that, the government believes it will work, that it will act as a deterrent. I mean, that remains to be seen. I mean, clearly the issue of small boats is a massive political issue in the United Kingdom. I mean, how much is the migrant problem discussed where you are now in France?

11:10They're not seeing people arriving into their country. they're only seeing people leaving the shores of northern France. And at the same time, there's so much else going on on the domestic political agenda that just kind of isn't the airtime for it, if you like. But at the same time, the interior ministry here is saying very little about this whole thing. But I just don't think it's catching fire in any way, shape or form compared to the way it is in the UK. Lisa, can you just explain? Obviously, you were on a flight yesterday where nothing happened. How does this work in practice? When we first booked onto this flight to go yesterday, initially my gut reaction was, this is going to be potentially quite a spectacle, isn't it?

11:52Also, the understanding is that people are going to be sent back, if it happens, on civilian airliners. Now, we know that the flights that have been earmarked are Air France flights from Heathrow to Paris. You know, what is this going to look like if it happens? Are we going to be seeing uniformed people, perhaps not border force, maybe private security? If someone's in distress, are they going to be handcuffed? Where are they going to sit on the plane? Is there going to be a commotion on the plane? I mean, given the potential scenario that someone is quite likely to be very distressed and being brought back against their will on a civilian aircraft.

12:29Meanwhile, the aircrew are going up and down, offering their cream cheese and cucumber complimentary sandwiches and hot and cold drinks with someone possibly in the back row in extreme distress. So it's quite a bizarre situation, isn't it? Bizarre indeed. Back to Danny Shaw. Danny, we were just speaking to our correspondent in Paris, so let's focus on the French end of things. Is France actually doing what it's supposed to as part of a deal that involves, let's not forget, giving them loads of money? I think that's a really good question. I mean, hundreds of millions of pounds have been given by the UK government to the French over the years to try and ramp up security, and yet you see images of the French police apparently just sort of standing by and watching people getting into boats.

13:12There is, we are told, an agreement in place that the French will actually intercept boats when they're in shallow waters and get them back but we've yet to see that in action. Siobhan, a moment, the new Home Secretary. What do you make of her? Is she as tough as she has been built and how does she compare to her predecessor, someone, of course, you know well because she was your boss, Yvette Cooper? Well, Yvette Cooper's got huge qualities, but she's quite cautious, I think, in her decision making and in her approach to things. And there are many positive to say about that because it means she bases decisions on evidence.

13:48She doesn't rush into decisions. I think Shabana Mahmood is more instinctive. I think we can see a bit more of a sort of punchy response to problems at the Home Office. I think the difference is that the Ministry of Justice, she had essentially really one major problem to contend with, which was the prison capacity crisis at the Home Office. The problems come from multiple different angles and sources. They come flying at you. You've got national security you've got to deal with. You've got crime. You've got policing reform. You've got commitments to tackle violence against women and girls and knife crime, neighbourhood policing, tackling antisocial behaviour and shop theft.

14:29And that's not even getting to borders and immigration, including legal migration. So she will be really challenged there. But I think you will see a sort of speedier response from Shabana Mahmood. Does that not suggest that the Home Office is too big, that the Home Office has too much responsibility and that perhaps, you know, as some have suggested, a separate department to deal with this and this alone might not be a bad idea. I think certainly immigration, legal migration, there's an argument to say that that is as much an issue related to the economy and to work as it is to enforcement and law and order.

15:07The problem if you separate out, let's say, illegal migration and the borders is that there are links to law enforcement and policing which kind of logically fit in the Home Office as well. So I'm suspicious about any kind of structural overhaul that consumes people's time and attention, will probably take a bit of investment initially to make it work and could prove to be a bit of a distraction, really. At the end of the day, really, this is about people doing their jobs and having the right focus and the right policies. Danny, I wonder if we might conclude by considering what potentially could be quite a depressing thought that there is no real solution to the small boats crisis.

15:50that for as long as the United Kingdom remains a more attractive place to live than the country of origin or the places that they pass on the way to our shores, people are always going to want to come here. People are always going to want to come here, obviously, and claim asylum. It's that particular route that is the problem because it's so visible, because it shows that our borders are broken and porous and people just coming off boats at Dover and so on. It just gives a terrible impression. That's why it's been such a toxic issue. I think it's going to be a real struggle to tackle the problem.

16:23I wouldn't want to say, Neil, that it's impossible and that we're just going to have to accept it. We may have to accept a level, a number of people that come across on small boats. But I do think that you can make some inroads into it if you can ramp up the deterrent scheme. Look, the best deterrent is if people know that when they come here on a small boat, within 48 hours, they're on a ferry back to France. It would stop immediately. So if this deal can be used as the launch pad for something more significant in six months or a year's time, this deal is only in force until June 2026, by the way.

17:02So, you know, it's only for another nine months. if it proves, if the concept is proven to work and it can be significantly increased so that you can get almost immediate returns, that's the thing that could break the model, I believe. Thanks, Danny. To see the latest on the deportation scheme, just head to the website, skynews.com. The Daily's back tomorrow.

17:28How does a banana trigger a CIA-backed coup? Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order? What do LED lights say about the future of humanity? I'm Ed Conway, and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open, and reveal the world-shaping forces hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow.