Why Burnham could get the Milibands back together

0:01David Miliband walked away from politics after losing to his brother Ed. Now, both may be on course for big jobs in a Burnham cabinet. This is why.

0:35hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow. British politics is littered with stories of backstabbing and betrayal. But every so often, the story isn't just political, it's personal. In 2010, after Labour's election defeat, Ed Miliband became leader of the Labour Party. The problem was, the favourite had been his elder her brother, David, former Foreign Secretary, New Labour's great hope. Then, Ed stood against him and won. I therefore declare Ed Miliband the winner and the leader of the Labour Party.

1:21Within days, David announced he was stepping away from frontline politics. I've decided that I can best serve the Labour Party and support Ed's leadership from the back benches in the House of Commons rather than the Shadow Cabinet. I think that gives him the space to lead the party as he sees fit. Ed never became Prime Minister. That might have been the end of the Miliband story. But politics has a habit of dragging old ghosts back on stage. Ed is now being talked up as a potential Chancellor in Andy Burnham's Cabinet. But guess who could be flying back to be boss at the Foreign Office? Yep, it's David.

1:56Two brothers, two great offices of state, one very old Labour wound. Our chief political correspondent is John Craig. John, look, what is the actual level of seriousness around the idea that David Miliband might be coming back to Westminster? I mean, is this just a classic bit of Westminster kite flying? It is definitely under consideration. I know this because Ed Miliband, who is working very closely with Andy Burnham, sounded out his brother David, but he did not do it personally. He did it through an intermediary. So it is definitely under consideration. But the bad blood between the two brothers, which goes back 16 years to the Labour leadership contest, is still not completely healed.

2:42The fact that Ed didn't have the guts or the courtesy or whatever to phone his brother directly to sound him out, but got someone else to ask David if he was interested, shows how tense the relationship still is. Now, the answer to the question is, yes, he's interested. Will he get the job? We don't know yet. But the fact is, he's been sounded out if he's interested in making a comeback to the top flight, the front line of British politics. And he's certainly interested. It could happen. I mean, just take us back to the Miliband family story. They're very much of the progressive intellectual left, weren't they?

3:21Yes, Ralph Miliband, their father, was a left-wing academic. I think he had a spell at Leeds University, but he was mostly at the London School of Economics. Now, their mother was a Jewish refugee, as I think the father was as well, Marian Kozak, who died very recently. They were real powerful intellectuals, the pair of them. Ralph Miliband, in particular, was held in very high regard by a lot of senior left-wing politicians and indeed trade unionists. They obviously lived in a very political household, must have talked about politics all the time. And of course, Red Ed is seen as more left-wing than his brother David.

4:04David was very much a Blairite when he was in Parliament. And Red Ed, of course, was always a Gordon Brown fan. And that's part of the reason and why there's that tension and potential bad blood between them. Well, tell me more about that then, because clearly both of them seemed destined for a career in politics and a career in Labour politics. Give us the potted CV. Let's start with Ed. Well, Ed started, I spent a lot of time actually as an advisor to Gordon Brown before he became a Member of Parliament. Ed became MP for Doncaster North in 2005. Ed, of course, was always Gordon's man, along with people like Ed Balls and, of course, Charlie Whelan, who was the notorious, if you like, spin doctor for Gordon Brown.

4:49There was a little group of them, a clique, if you like, of Brownites, very combative group indeed. And, of course, you could argue that David was the more cerebral of the two and not so practiced in the dark arts. They were from different wings of the party, different allegiances. David's to Tony Blair and Ed's to Gordon Brown. How high did they both rise within Labour right? Oh, very high. I mean, David particularly was Foreign Secretary. And of course, Ed did become leader. Now, David, of course, was the favourite to win in 2010. But of course, it was Ed that did. So set the scene for us. 2010 election has come and gone.

5:29Hung Parliament, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems get into bed with each other. The Labour Party is looking for a new leader. It's all a bit rudderless. Set the scene. Right. Well, there were five candidates in that election. The five were David Miliband, Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, Andy Burnham and Diane Abbott. Now, throughout the whole election until the very last moment, David was ahead. He had more nominations. He was ahead after the first two or three rounds. First of all, it was Diane Abbott that was knocked out. Then it was Andy Burnham was knocked out. Then Ed Balls. And then it was the two brothers up against each other.

6:10And Ed won by the tiniest of margins. They announced on the Saturday at the Labour Party conference in Manchester. I remember being told in the Red Lion on the Friday night, the Red Lion, the famous pub opposite Parliament, by a senior ally of Gordon Brown that Ed had won. And I tweeted that. And a lot of people said, how can you know? And I said, well, a senior person close to Gordon Brown told me. And of course, I was right. I mean, I also thought before, even a week or so before that, that Ed was going to win. I'm boasting now. But Ed was going to win because David was not far enough ahead amongst the MPs to defeat Ed because Ed had more trade union support.

6:52David, in my view, was utterly far too complacent. There was a story I heard shortly after the election result. On the train going up to Manchester, one of David Miliband's teams said to him, have you prepared for the possibility that you might not win? And David apparently rather arrogantly said, no, we're going to win. Well, he didn't, of course. And I remember it well when the result came. David's wife, Louise Shackleton, a violinist, I think with the London Symphony Orchestra. I saw her in tears behind the curtain at the back of the stage. It was a dramatic moment. And of course, the wounds, well, took a long time to heal, if indeed they have.

7:33But the expectation was that David Miliband was going to walk this. I mean, when you heard that Ed Miliband was going to be standing against his brother, I mean, how far from the floor was your jaw? Well, I remember having a disagreement with our friend and colleague Adam Bolton about this, because Adam thought it was disgraceful and disloyal that Ed should stand against his brother, who once had been the front runner. He said to me at one point, this is Adam, well, you wouldn't understand, you're an only child. Well, true, I plead guilty to being an only child. But of course, you'll remember only last week at Prime Minister's Questions, when Kemi Badenoch was taunting Sakhir Starmer and other cabinet ministers, including Ed Miliband.

8:19She came out with this line, it's not the first time he has betrayed someone close to him. And everybody winced, of course, because that was a reference to his standing against his brother. I know a thing or two about, you know, not getting on with your brother at various points in your life. You know, there was an incident with a dart gun and the less said about a putter coming towards my head, the better. But this was at the very top of British politics. And ultimately, it led to one of the brothers, the defeated brother, leaving politics. I think some thought for good. Yes, well, it looked like it at the time.

8:51Although there have been suggestions that at some point he might come back. What was interesting, when I was at the Makefield count a week or so ago, where the most telling thing I thought in Andy Burnham's acceptance speech from the platform was when he said, I always knew that at some point I would seek to return to Westminster. And I wonder if David Miliband has also thought the same thing. He perhaps thinks that he's got some unfinished business. I mean, he has become quite a major international figure since he left Parliament. What has he been up to in the wilderness? When he left Parliament, when he stood down in South Shields, he became president of something called the International Rescue Committee.

9:30Now, it's a part charity, part lobbying organisation. It's highly paid. It comes with, I think, a swanky apartment and offices in New York and so on. So he's become a big international globetrotter. He obviously gets involved in wars, what's happening in the Middle East, obviously helping refugees and so on. So he's now got even more experience in foreign affairs than he had as foreign secretary. Now, probably he would argue, or his friends would argue, it makes him ideally qualified to make a comeback as foreign secretary. So tell us a little bit about Ed Miliband's tenure as Labour leader. I mean, frankly, it's a period that he may wish to forget himself.

10:14Not very successful. I mean, if you think back to those two elections, 2010 and then 2015, the Conservatives did not have an overall majority in 2010. And so Mr. Cameron went into coalition with Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats. And yet in 2015, when Ed Miliband had been the Labour leader, the Conservatives won an overall majority. Ed Miliband's leadership, not great, you have to say. And there are those Labour MPs who still remember it and say, oh, do we really want him in a top job when he wasn't great as Labour leader? What was wrong with him? Basically, he wasn't as good as David Cameron.

10:52David Cameron was a supreme communicator and a pretty adept Prime Minister and Ed Miliband's failings, his geekiness, his awkwardness. He didn't do very well in television interviews. There was one with Jeremy Paxman where Mr. Paxman said to him, are you up for it or something like that? Hell yes. And I remember one that was one when he literally stumbled on a step in the studio. And then there were all sorts of gaffes like, for example, a silly stunt, a great big lump of rock they called an Edstone. I mean, Remember that? Nobody knew what on earth that was about. It was bonkers. I mean, I think it had various Labour pledges on it, but it was a silly gimmick that didn't really work.

11:35And then there were other silly blunders, like when he was caught on TV eating a bacon sandwich during campaigning. And there was food everywhere. It's disgusting.

11:56How does a banana trigger a CIA-backed coup? Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order? What do LED lights say about the future of humanity? I'm Ed Conway, and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open, and reveal the world-shaping forces hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow.

12:34Given the disaster that at times was, the Ed Miliband project when it came to Labour in opposition, I mean, how has he managed to rehabilitate himself to the place where, you know, he is now being openly talked about as the next chancellor of the Exchequer? Well, the plus points, of course, he's an experienced cabinet minister. He served in Gordon Brown's cabinet. He's described as a pretty nifty and effective Whitehall operator. He's experienced. He's used to dealing with civil servants. He's used to getting things done. And if you compare him with other members of the Starmer cabinet, of course, he's much more experienced and so on.

13:15His supporters would argue that he's well qualified for the job of chancellor. He worked for Gordon Brown in the Treasury. And he obviously has ideas about what he would do as chancellor of the Exchequer. Problem is, of course, a lot of his critics would say they're too left wing. Taxes would go up. He'd be yet again a net zero zealot. He'd infuriate Middle England, if you like, with some of his measures. It would look like Mr Burnham was taking a real lurch to the left if Ed Miliband became Chancellor. John, I mean, I'm certainly not criticising the point that you've just made about him coming with an awful lot of baggage, an awful lot of political baggage, particularly when it comes to net zero.

13:54But ideologically, isn't he actually pretty close to Andy? Yes, certainly. And he's been working very closely with him over the last few weeks. This is why, of course, Kemi Badenok was able to go on the attack and accuse Ed Miliband of betraying Keir Starmer. It does rather look like that. And of course, we now know, we knew a few weeks ago, that Ed Miliband, who was one of those who told Starmer to his face, to stand down. So you could argue that he's been plotting against Starmer, and of course, on behalf of Andy Burnham. But clearly, you know what politicians are like. I always remember, I tell a little story from 1994 when John Smith died.

14:33I remember being at John Smith's funeral and I said to a Labour frontbencher, whose team are you going to be on then? And he said, oh, the winning team, of course. And of course, politicians, they're shockers. Have you seen the beauty parade the last few weeks of all these ministers cosying up to Andy Burnham? Give me a job, give me a job. Ministers who turned down all interview requests, suddenly queuing up to be interviewed on Sky News and elsewhere. put themselves in the shop window. Well, presumably that is one thing that David Miliband will not have to do, that he will not have to show a bit of ankle if indeed he has been considered for the post of foreign secretary, because he does have years and years, decades now, of international affairs experience.

15:12But I do wonder whether or not picking him as foreign secretary would basically be Andy Burnham admitting that he doesn't know a thing, he doesn't have a clue when it comes to foreign affairs. Well, he doesn't really. I mean, that's why a lot of people, me included, thought his speech in Manchester on Monday was light on anything apart from boasting about his buses in Manchester and his Manchesterism and the gimmick of a number 10 of the North and so on. There was nothing in there in that speech on Monday about Ukraine or the war in the Middle East or anything like that. Now, is he going to delegate foreign policy to a foreign secretary, potentially David Miliband, it looks as though he may well be.

15:55But I'm not sure that's going to work. The fact is, I mean, Keir Starmer didn't start in July 2024 planning to devote as much time as he has done to foreign affairs, but he's had to. And it's such a volatile time at the moment. Big international decisions to be taken. And is Andy Burnham going to delegate them all? Well, perhaps he is, but I'm not sure it's going to work. But hold the bus for a second, John. I mean, David Miliband is not an elected representative. Doesn't he need a seat to take over at the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office? Well, I mean, do they force a by-election? I mean, by-election's a risky business.

16:32Mr Burnham had a very good victory, got 55 % of the vote in Makerfield. But trying to bring in Foreign Secretary into, well, obviously they'd go for a safe Labour seat. Mmm, tricky. And I think that's why perhaps a seat in the Lords is perhaps more likely. I mean, we have seen it before. Well, Lord Cameron was Foreign Secretary. And Alec Douglas Hume as well under Ted Heath. It's not ideal. And MPs don't like it. When David Cameron was Foreign Secretary in the Lords, MPs complained all the time that he wasn't able to face questions from MPs in the House of Commons. But it may well be that David Miliband takes on some other role rather than Foreign Secretary.

17:12It depends whether he really wants to be Foreign Secretary. I suspect he probably does, because politicians have big egos and they think they can solve the world's problems. I mean, look at Tony Blair, that ended badly. So it's all very tricky. I mean, it all adds to this great soap opera of British politics, of which the two Miliband brothers are going to be centre stage in the weeks ahead, potentially. I mean, that was where I was going to go next. I mean, let's forget about how David might come back to frontline politics, be it the Lords or be it the Commons. But can Andy Burnham actually get away with having both brothers, two Milibands in the same cabinet and potentially occupying two of the biggest jobs in that cabinet?

17:51Well, they've both been in the cabinet at the same time before under Gordon Brown. Yes, it could happen. It could happen. There's no reason why not. I mean, the Tories will probably, no doubt, I can just imagine Kemi Badenoch rubbing her hands with glee at the sort of barb she can throw at Prime Minister's questions. It's a potential ammunition for political opponents to talk about, I don't know, jobs for the boys and obviously all sorts of other taunts that Kemi Bader not can throw at Mr Burnham. I suppose my issue is actually more fundamental. You have Andy Burnham as prime minister. You have Ed Miliband in number 11 as chancellor.

18:29And you've got David Miliband across the road in the foreign office. You know, three white men of similar ages, all of whom could be argued were career politicians. Is that the kind of look that the supposedly progressive Labour Party wants to give to the country? Well, they have done up to now, haven't they? This is the party that's never elected a woman leader. The Tories have had three. OK, one of them was Liz Truss didn't last very long. But a lot of Labour women MPs, quite rightly, are appalled by the fact that Labour, as you say, the so-called progressive party, has still not had a woman leader.

19:01There's not been that many women candidates either. Yvette Cooper stood once before. That was in 2015. and Diane Abbott from the left stood in 2010. John, I just wonder though, Andy Burnham will be aware of all of these issues as much as anyone else. I just wonder if we have to keep the irony klaxon on standby for a set of circumstances in which Andy Burnham as Prime Minister thinks, I am desperate to have David back as Foreign Secretary and in bringing him back, he stymies the ambitions of Ed Miliband and he doesn't end up getting number 11 Downing Street. That is possible. That is possible because the question is, which does he want more?

19:41Does he want Ed as Chancellor more or David as Foreign Secretary? Now, you could argue that Yvette Cooper is doing a perfectly good job as Foreign Secretary. She certainly wants to continue in the role. And that is possible that she might do. She might be a candidate for Chancellor as well. Rachel Reeves, I think she's toast. I can't see how she can continue as Chancellor of the Exchequer. You can't promise change and then leave the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who's presided over all sorts of bad decisions. And it's possible that David may come back in a different role, perhaps some sort of advisory role, some sort of special envoy role or something like that, or even National Security Chief, the job that Jonathan Powell's been doing.

20:20It's not a done deal that David is going to become Foreign Secretary, but he has certainly been sounded out for that role or another role. Ed is fiercely ambitious, desperately wants to be Chancellor of the Exchequer. He realises he's never going to be Prime Minister now, but Chancellor of the Exchequer is not a bad consolation prize. And of course, it's the second most powerful job in government, Chancellor of the Exchequer. And we've seen a powerful Chancellor can have an enormous impact. Look at Gordon Brown's impact. Look at George Osborne's impact. Isn't this all just really, really and unnecessarily risky for Andy Burnham?

20:59I mean, look what happened the last time these two fell out. The wheels could very easily come off. And I'm just wondering, you know, we look at what's happened in the Labour Party before. I understand that Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were not brothers, but they were for a long time political soulmates. And that ended in an absolute binfire as well. The TBGBs, yes. Well, I mean, there is always rivalry between Prime Minister and Chancellor. Margaret Thatcher used to say, never forget who is the first Lord of the Treasury. And of course, she fell out with Nigel Lawson in the end. I mean, how Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves haven't fallen out after some of her bad decisions, I don't know.

21:40Andy Burnham, if, for example, Ed Miliband starts making bad decisions, that's bad for the Prime Minister. He'll be blamed for appointing him. And of course, if things go wrong internationally, if David Miliband was Foreign Secretary, well, the Prime Minister would be blamed for that. I mean, this is all part of the problem, the fact that he's inexperienced. And so Andy Burnham really has just been parachuted in so quickly, and he's going to take over within weeks of winning his by-election. And that's why getting these appointments right is so important, because they are crucial jobs. The economy's in trouble.

22:17He's just been handed a poison chalice of a big black hole in defence spending. How's he going to get out of that? His to-do list is absolutely enormous. And that's why getting these appointments right is so crucial. Well, John, I am sure it will be barrels of, in inverted commas, fun for you to see how it all plays out. Thanks very much. And that's your lot for today. Indeed, for this week on This Is Why. If you like what you've heard, do scroll back in your feed to see what else we've been covering and get in touch with your suggestions for future episodes. Why? At sky.uk. Have a great weekend.

22:51We'll be back on Monday.

23:00How does a banana trigger a CIA-backed coup? Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order? What do LED lights say about the future of humanity? I'm Ed Conway and in each episode of my new podcast Stuff Matters I take an object crack it open and reveal the world-shaping forces hidden inside This is economics told through the things we think we understand Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow