Why Estonia is on the front line of Russia's rising ambitions

0:02Sky News, the full story first.

0:11It's the tiny European nation on the front line with Russia. Our ambassador to Estonia thinks we can learn from its example. And this is why.

0:25I'm Sam Coates from Sky News. And I'm Anne McElvoy from Politico. Downing Street drama, leadership battles and policy U-turns. We're on it before it breaks. We take you straight into the rooms where the real political conversations are happening. Smart Insight, clear analysis in your feeds by 7.45am. So you start your morning fully brief for the day ahead in British politics. Hit follow and listen to Politics at Sam & Anne's wherever you get your podcasts.

1:02Hi everyone, Neil here. Do hope you're well, though maybe just a few of you might have spent a bit of the bank holiday weekend a little concerned at all the talk of war. Look, no judgement from me on that. It would be difficult not to be concerned, frankly. But you might also want to spare a thought for those who live in a country that actually borders Russia. Estonia is a good example, sitting right at the eastern edge of Europe. I can literally see the path Russia would take if it did decide to invade. The UK's most senior diplomat in Estonia has just written a book, Estonian Lessons. And I suppose it serves as a rather decent reminder that whilst we might be a distance away from the frontier, that certainly shouldn't give us any sense of security.

1:45There have also been attacks in the UK. You know, we've seen Russian-directed attacks against the UK. And, yeah, Estonians would point out that the threat is to all of NATO. Ross Allen is the UK's ambassador to Estonia. Full disclosure, he was also the year below me at university. Before we get into the job and, of course, the book Estonian Lessons, let's start with some basics. Yeah, very good. So with those basics, like where Estonia is, I always think if you start with Germany and keep going east and north, you've got Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and then above Latvia, Estonia, and then Finland above.

2:19So basically between Finland and Latvia, you can either say Eastern Europe, Northern Europe, the Baltics. that sort of region. Quite a small population, so it's about 1.35 million. Well, that's few. Yeah, so not a lot of people, but it is bigger than any of Switzerland, Denmark, or the Netherlands. But Netherlands has obviously got way more people. So it's very sparsely populated. So there's quite few people in Tallinn, one or two other towns, and then you can drive for hours and not see anybody. So very sparsely populated. It sounds like a beautiful place. It is brilliant. People come out, I think, for two things.

2:47Tallinn has got this most amazing UNESCO-listed old town, like medieval old town, which is incredible. People come either for the Christmas market, which is great, or in the summer. It's got loads of islands, long sandy beaches, sort of shallow seas that get nice and warm. I have to say it is a really nice tourist destination. So what prompted the book in the first place? Estonian Lessons. During my posting, during my five years there, I kept coming across things that Estonian was really good at. And that's not just my opinion. There are lots of league tables internationally that you want your country to be high up.

3:19So it's like press freedom or how you look after the environment. or how many great companies you're founding each year. And all these league tables would get updated every year. And Estonia was always really high up, or with some of them even top. And the other countries that are up there are the ones that people might expect, Norway, Switzerland, Singapore, etc. And then I was thinking, how is Estonia at the top of all these league tables, like education results in Europe, that sort of thing? And also, how have they done that, even though up until 1991, it was part of the Soviet Union, it was occupied by the Soviet Union.

3:52And so it's only since 1991 they got their freedom back, yet they've got all these great achievements. And then I thought, what can the rest of us learn from this quite small country that's doing loads of brilliant things? Just to go back to the book, though, one of the points that you make is that if you want to try and understand modern Estonia, you have to understand those more than one period of occupation by the Soviet Union. So I'll try and keep it potted. Long periods under Swedish and sort of Danish rule. Estonians now say that if you're going to be occupied by anybody, like the Swedes are not the worst.

4:22In opposition to the Russians. Yeah, Russians or indeed a lot later like Nazi Germany. But Sweden actually left a legacy of, for example, like a really good university and quite sort of positive impression. And then skipping forward, they got their independence from the Russian Tsars in a war of independence from 1918 to 20. So at the end of basically World War One is finished. And in Estonia, the actual Estonian people thought now is our opportunity. You know, Soviet Russia's going through all sorts of turmoil. Germany has just lost World War I, and they sort of seized their moment, and with British help.

4:53So the Royal Navy intervened to help the Estonians get their freedom, and Latvia and Lithuania. And in 1918, they declared independence, and then they managed to be independent from 1918 to 1940. And then World War II was terrible for Estonia. You had Soviet occupation again, then Nazi occupation, and then the Soviets came back in towards the end of World War II, and then a long period under Soviet occupation. What did that do to the country, you know, politically, culturally? It's an interesting one. I have colleagues now in our embassy who remember that period. They're old enough. They were children, but they remember that period.

5:25I mean, it was a complete loss of freedom and obviously had an economic system that largely didn't work. Particularly the early years were awful. The late 40s and 50s, there were mass deportations and so on under Stalin. Things improved a bit once Stalin had died. The other interesting thing I think is like in the 80s, the one word everyone uses is stagnation. Like nothing was happening. They'd had the same sort of local leaders for a long time. And there was a real sense of wanting to get their freedom back again. So this all goes to the never alone again aspect of Estonia's foreign policy. Just explain that.

5:56So their view, and I think accurately, is that in the 1930s, they had quite strong armed forces and they were spending a lot on defense, but they were still a very small country. and when the security situation in Europe got worse and you had the rise of Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia, they didn't really have allies. They had their own armed forces, but they didn't have allies they could depend on. So the never alone again idea is that Estonia should always have allies. So as soon as they got free again in 91, they sort of set themselves on a course to join the European Union and most importantly join NATO.

6:26And they had a referendum on joining the EU, but they didn't even have a referendum on joining NATO. Just because of that proximity to Russia. Yeah. So all along the eastern border, they border Russia. There's a sort of northern bit that's land, then a really big lake, and then more of a land border in the south. And even now, that's a big focus, like monitoring that border and worrying about the risk that, you know, Russia could attack again. So when Russia invaded Ukraine back in February 2022, how did it feel in Estonia itself? It was especially strange because it happened on Estonian Independence Day.

6:56So I was gathered with all the other ambassadors and lots of other Estonians to celebrate Estonian independence very early in the morning. They do a sort of dawn flag raising. And at this particular one, everyone was just like people in the UK, I guess, like scrolling their phones, like what the hell is happening? And the bigger picture was that they were worried and had a sense that this is what Russia does. Like Russia threatens its neighbors, doesn't respect international law. The Estonians agreed with us in the run-up to that invasion that this was likely. There was a sort of debate at the time internationally, you know, is Putin sort of crazy enough to invade Ukraine?

7:28And the Estonians didn't need any persuading. Like they understand Russia. They've been there next to Russia for a long time. To the extent that many, many Estonians at that point rushed to join up the Defence League. Yeah. So the Defence League is a sort of volunteer militia. It's a bit like being a reservist in the UK. Yeah, I think in the immediate aftermath of that invasion, an extra five and a half thousand people signed up, I think, in the month following. And that's going out and doing military training regularly at the weekends and in the evenings and being prepared to defend the country if necessary.

7:58So there is a word that you use in your book, and I'm going to totally mispronounce it here, kaitse tahe. Very good. Yeah, well done. Yeah, kaitse tahe means will to defend. And I think that's actually an adaptation of a Ukrainian word. And when President Zelensky came to visit Estonia, they gave him a jumper, like a sort of military green pullover with kaitse tahe on it. And these instantly sold out. They became very popular. And they regularly poll the population in Estonia and to say what percentage of the population are prepared to fight to defend their country if necessary. And it's like 80 % plus.

8:30So would you describe this as a country that is on a permanent war footing? What Estonians always say to me is we're not worried, we're preparing. There's a difference between worrying and preparing. They're just clear out about the threat. Yeah, they're clear out about the threat and they're practical people. So they're like, what do we need to do to prepare? How can we be more resilient? And how can we deter Russia? How can we boost deterrence? So do Estonians kind of see Ukraine's war as partly theirs then? And ours, countries like the UK. So the idea that they sometimes reject is the idea that it's Ukraine's war and there's a particular threat to the Baltics, but somehow the rest of Europe doesn't need to worry.

9:06And I think if I was an Estonian sat here, I would say the threat is also to Germany and France and the UK and other countries. I mean, they would look at things like hybrid attacks. So this is things like sabotage or jamming GPS signals cutting infrastructure. So there are lots of cables around the Baltic seas or connecting different countries, and some of those have been damaged. But there have also been attacks in the UK. You know, we've seen Russian-directed attacks against the UK. And yeah, Estonians would point out that the threat is to all of NATO. I mean, NATO has a significant presence in and around the Baltics right now, and for obvious reasons.

9:42So what does NATO membership currently mean to Estonia? It's absolutely crucial. I mean, they, I think, see NATO as the absolute bedrock of their security. And there's a particular connection to us. The UK is the framework nation for the NATO presence in Estonia. So as well as all of Estonia's own armed forces, there's a battle group which is British-led with also French participation. It's British-led, that's out in Estonia. So anyone in the UK who's got friends or family in the British army probably knows someone who's done a tour or a couple of tours in Estonia. They come out for six months at a time.

10:14And we also, for the last couple of years, we've had a brigade in the UK allocated to Estonia. And the idea there is that if we thought the threat was increasing, we would send that brigade out. Lots of their equipment is pre-positioned in Estonia. And in a sort of conflict situation, we would probably make up about a third of the professional armed forces in Estonia. And I think that's the right thing to do. You know, we're all part of NATO. We agree to defend each other. And they're the country on the front line, on the eastern flank. So it's right that we're there helping them. What changed after?

10:44the invasion in 2022 in terms of NATO's plans for defending Estonia. In very broad terms, there was a plan before that invasion, which very broadly involved sort of falling back. You would concede some territory to advancing Russian forces, and then lots of forces from the UK, France, the US would come in, reinforce, and then retake that territory. What changed after what we saw in Ukraine was the idea that if you allowed that to happen, that would be already disastrous for Estonia. They'd have lost a lot of their territory and a lot of their population. And what we've seen in Ukraine, places like Butcher and other areas, is what Russian occupation actually means and how dreadful that is.

11:21So the new plan is defend every inch. So have troops and equipment much nearer the border, and also be prepared to take the fight to Russia. If you want to deter Russia, you have to say that if you attack Estonia or anywhere else in NATO, we won't just fight you on our own territory, we will take the fight to you. That is much more of a deterrent. Just how significant then is Estonia's ability to defend itself to our ability to defend ourselves. I think I'd pitch it as like a team sport, a team effort. We're on the same team. I sometimes have kids who are 10, 8, and 6. And they'll say to me, because we live in Estonia, they say to me, Daddy, what's going on with Russia and Ukraine?

11:58Or what does NATO mean? And I say it to them, you're much stronger if you're a part of a club and you have friends or allies who are prepared to defend each other. So I think by having our soldiers in Estonia, we are helping keep the UK safe as well. We need everywhere in NATO to be equally strong and equally able to defend itself. But there is an aspect to the Estonian kind of defence poly, a kind of a whole society defence model, which we don't deploy here. I mean, at one point you write about drone training for pupils. Yeah, yeah. There's a guy I know quite well who, in the last couple of years, his new project is basically drone training for sort of teenagers.

12:35And it's quite fun. I mean, most teenagers, if you say to them, do you want to spend a day learning how to fly drones, they say yes. And in school, they have lessons in national defence. So in a particular year group, everyone will be taught about national defence. They also have lessons, interestingly, in media literacy. They get taught what they can trust in the media, when to sort of check with a second source, that sort of thing. Like, you know, what you can and can't believe online, which I think is really good. I think that's fantastic. I mean, it's something that's desperately lacking in this country.

13:01I mean, could the UK learn from that whole society defence model or even ape it? Yeah. You know, we think of ourselves as an island nation and we don't physically border Russia. We don't have a land border. So the challenges are a bit different, but I think there are aspects we're already trying to do. So the government that I represent has plans to increase the number of cadets, to increase the number of reservists, and we've increased defense spending, and we're on a plan to increase defense spending further. So I think we are doing some of the things that we need to do. My own personal thing was becoming a reservist.

13:30If I hadn't spent the last few years living in Estonia, meeting lots of reservists, I probably wouldn't have ended up becoming one myself. But I did it partly, I think, to encourage other people, particularly my age. Even if you're in your 40s or early 50s, you can join the reserves in the UK. More children doing cadets would be good, more adults joining our reserves, I think would be good. I hope people will look into that. Of all the lessons in the book then, what is the most important one for us in the UK to learn, particularly given the bulk of what we've been talking about, that Russian aggression on the eastern frontier?

13:58While writing the book, I try to think what is the thing that connects all these other things that Estonia is good at? And I think because of having had in a lot of their history, their freedom taken away or been denied their freedom. The Estonians have this attitude of like, while they are free now, make the most of that freedom. So use that freedom for things like, you know, develop a really good education system, but also build up your armed forces to keep your freedom. And I think possibly because we, you know, the UK, we've got this very different long history, 1066 maybe, may have been the last time we were sort of successfully invaded.

14:30Maybe we think differently, but I think we could maybe learn a little bit from that one, like the value you place on freedom and then what you do with it and maybe the sense of urgency again you know link link to the russia threat i think that sense of urgency and making the most of the freedom that we have or else it's been fantastic to catch up with you after what the best part of three decades best of luck with the remaining weeks of your posting and wherever you go next thanks for joining us thank you so much been a pleasure thank you that's a lot for today do remember we're always in the market for suggestions for future episodes email us why at sky.uk we're back Back tomorrow.

15:32Hit follow and listen to politics at Sam and Anne's wherever you get your podcasts.