Why Europe is finally standing up to Donald Trump

0:02Michael Clarke:Sky News, the full story first.

0:12Michael Clarke:Europe is finally standing up to Donald Trump. And this is why.

0:25Michael Clarke:Europe's not exactly playing ball right now And Donald Trump doesn't like it And now Spain actually said that we can't use their bases So we're going to cut off all trade with Spain We don't want anything to do with Spain So no holiday in Benidorm this year, Mr President Well that broadside was launched Because Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez said no to attacks being launched from US bases in his country. Then came an equally robust response from Spain. La posición del gobierno de España se resume en cuatro palabras, no a la guerra. The position of the Spanish government can be summed up in four words, says Sánchez.

1:01Michael Clarke:No to the war. The world, Europe and Spain have been here before. Now that's a reference to the Iraq war of 2003, something weighing heavily on Sir Keir Starmer's mind, particularly the long-running argument over its legality. What I was not prepared to do on Saturday was for the UK to join a war unless I was satisfied there was a lawful basis and a viable thought through plan. So is this the point that Europe develops a backbone?

1:28Niall:I've never known transatlantic relations in this sort of state in my lifetime.

1:32Michael Clarke:Professor Michael Clarke is Sky's defence and security analyst. Michael, good to see you. Look, some incredibly strong words from Sanchez. We shouldn't be surprised though, should we? No.

1:44Niall:I mean, Pedro Sanchez has taken a different view about European security to most of his partners, and certainly now towards what President Trump has done in launching this war. But remember, Sanchez was the politician who would not let Spain join in the coalition of the willing. There was this attempt by Britain and France to get forces together that might go to Ukraine in the event of some sort of ceasefire. He wasn't willing to sign up to the extra NATO expenditure at the Hague summit last year. He's distanced himself from many things, simply saying that this is not in Spain's national interest because Spain is in the Iberian Peninsula.

2:16Niall:It doesn't feel as if it's so immediately connected to the other things that bother Europe. And remember, he's a left-wing politician. He's got his own constituency to worry about. And he's not going to go out on a limb domestically to back an American policy, which he knows is pretty unpopular with the Spanish public.

2:32Michael Clarke:We've heard some of the exchanges in the White House, and Donald Trump, of course, very strong on what he thinks about Spain. But we also had Germany's leader sitting alongside him. What did you make of that? Because there are some who suggest that the Germans might have been a bit more supportive of the Spanish in that encounter.

2:49Niall:Well, they might have been. But actually, it's one of the worst things any leader can do in these days is to have to sit through one of Donald Trump's so-called press conferences in the Oval Office because they sit there and Trump riffs on whatever he wants to do. And he makes scant reference to the country that that leader is representing. And they have to sit there, a sort of rictus grin on their face while the American president says ridiculous things. Everyone handles it differently. So, you know, Keir Starmer, when he went to that first meeting, he handled it differently. He handed over the letter from the king inviting Donald Trump on a state visit.

3:19Niall:And, you know, Keir Starmer tried to hand that letter over beforehand. And Trump said, no, no, no, don't give it to me now. You must give it to me at the press conference. He understands TV, doesn't he? Absolutely. And so Keir Starmer was forced into that cringeworthy position. I have a letter here from his majesty for you. And Trump opens it. He was as if he was surprised and pleased. I mean, the whole thing is stage managed. So it's very difficult for foreign leaders. And they all have to deal with it in their own way. Some push back a little bit. Some smile. But I think Europeans, whatever they say when they're in the Oval Office, are now much more resolved between themselves.

3:52Niall:And I've seen this at Davos, I've seen it at Munich this year. The European attitude to the United States has gone through quite a sea change in the last few months. Strong words on Keir Starmer, of course, saying he's no Churchill. He knew what he was doing. Yeah. He wasn't just angry, he probably is a bit angry, but he knew that he was winding up the British and he knew he was heaping pressure on Britain because he thinks it'll pay off in some other way. So in terms of trade deals, in terms of other things, big tech and digital sovereignty within Europe.

4:22Michael Clarke:So is this why he has, for example, given interviews recently to both The Telegraph and The Sun? It's piling more pressure than the UK.

4:28Niall:He's using this idea that the Chagos deal, which, I mean, Trump doesn't understand the Chagos deal. He's had four different positions in just over a year. First he agreed with it, then he disagreed with it, then he agreed with it, and now he disagrees with it. The State Department and the Pentagon agree with the Foreign Office and the MOD. They all think it's a good idea because, I mean, the State Department of the Pentagon, below the top level, you're dealing with professionals who know what they're talking about. Among the professionals who know what they're talking about, it's a good idea what Britain is proposing the Chagos deal.

4:55Niall:And we're doing the whole Chagos-Diego Garcia deal for the sake of the United States. So it's very galling to have Trump flip-flop on the basis of people whispering in his ear on something he really doesn't understand.

5:05Michael Clarke:There are no pockets of resistance to Donald Trump in European capitals. There is a hardening of the line when it comes to going along with Donald Trump. Is that due to myriad reasons or is it solely because of the illegality, in inverted commas, of what he's doing with Iran?

5:23Niall:No, I mean, that's just the latest. And, I mean, that'll play out in a different way. We're only on day five of the war and we'll see where that goes in the next couple of weeks. The single biggest thing was Greenland. Trump comes to Davos with these strange statements that we're going to take Greenland and if we have to use force, we'll use force. and the Europeans were so outraged by that in all sorts of ways that they said, we have to push back. And the Europeans said, okay, if you want a trade war over it, we'll have a trade war. If you want to actually invade Greenland, we'll send troops there.

5:51Niall:Are you going to shoot them? Are you going to fight our troops if we send troops? They challenged him and he backed off immediately. And he sort of, I think, thought, oh, well, the issue's gone away for a while. I'll raise it again differently later on. I don't think he understands the damage that raising the Greenland issue in the way that he did has done to transatlantic relations. What it showed the Europeans is that we can't live with this administration and believe anything it says at the top level. And so we've got to sort of get through the Trump period. I mean, after the Trump period, there'll probably be another MAGA leader, but it won't be Trump.

6:22Niall:So we've got to live through this sort of Trump idiocy is what they thought. And we've got to be tough. There's no prizes for just being nice to this man. If you're nice to him, you also have to show strength. You have to show that you're prepared to take him on if necessary.

6:36Michael Clarke:Genuinely, does this represent a significant hardening of European attitudes towards Donald Trump?

6:41Niall:What's happening in Europe now, and it's not united across Europe, because, I mean, Hungary, Auburn in Hungary, FISO in Slovakia are very pro-Putin, and both of them are pro-Trump. I mean, both of them like Putin and Trump, and so they play against the European mainstream. The big powers in Europe are Britain, Germany, France, and Italy. Those are the big four. Now, Italy is an interesting case. Georgia Maloney, she likes Trump, Trump likes her, but she knows ultimately that Italy's future must lie in Europe. But the other three, so Britain, France, Germany, are much more united now. And whereas even five years ago, it was always said, if you push the British to make a choice, they'll always choose America.

7:18Niall:And that was true. Now you push the British to make a choice, they will choose Germany and France as their partners. They have to, because the America that we now see is completely unreliable and is no friend of ours in reality at the top level. So I think that there really is a sea change. I've never known transatlantic relations in this sort of state in my lifetime. And we're seeing the evolution of a really different relationship. It won't crack completely, but it will run on very different lines from now on.

7:47Michael Clarke:All of which I get, but I still return to the point. We are now an active part in this war with Iran. RAF Akrotiri on Cyprus has been struck. We are putting planes in the air and we are stopping missiles coming down. We are about to send the Type 45 destroyer round to Cyprus. I mean, I get that we are distinct from the US policy in this regard, but we're still part of it.

8:10Niall:Well, what the government will say, and I think, you know, logically enough, they'll say, no, we're not part of this war. We are defending our bases and our interests. So if the Iranians attack us, then we'll defend them. If Hezbollah throw rockets at Akrotiri, we'll defend our our bases. But we're not going to send aircraft to bomb Iran in retaliation. We're not going to do that. We will defend our assets. And when it comes to it, we have very, very few assets to defend. Of course, we've got 300 ,000 British citizens across the region. That's an issue. But that's not a defense issue. So what the government will say is, look, all we're going to do, what we're going to do is to defend our bases against foreign attack.

8:46Niall:And that doesn't mean that we're part of the war. It just means that we're looking after our interests while a war goes on around our bases.

8:52Michael Clarke:Was this, though, the best moment to thumb our nose at Washington and at Donald Trump? We haven't started spending the money that we need to accelerate our military capacity. So was this the right point at which to draw a line in the sand with Donald Trump?

9:05Niall:No, I know what you mean. If the Americans are going to war, you're either in or you're out. And the legality of it takes second place to the politics of it. And the politics of it is go in with it and, you know, just live with the consequences. It's a genuine problem for the government. Personally, I think it was better to stand away from the initiation of an attack, which is almost impossible to justify in terms of international law. And I think history, even history close in, I think in a month's time, the world will start saying pretty loudly that this attack was illegitimate in most respects.

9:39Niall:I think it's probably better to stand away from that. On the other hand, in my view, it would have maybe been better for the government to continue to stand away from it, to say, look, this is the view we take, and we're going to continue to take it. What they've done is they've taken a loyally sort of route by saying, well, what was not acceptable on Saturday is acceptable on Sunday because the situation has changed. And that is legally consistent, but politically it looks inconsistent.

10:02Michael Clarke:It's difficult to sell to the public. I do wonder though, given the United States is clearly an unreliable ally for Europe at the moment, but it is a massive part of NATO, what does that mean for the prospect of some kind of European Defence Pact, do you think?

10:17Niall:Well, the Europeans are stepping up, not quickly enough, but the European Union has allocated 800 billion euros over between five and 10 years to rearm, of 150 billion of which is the first tranche. Britain's on the outside of that at the moment, but we'll probably come on to the inside of it when we negotiate it fully. And Britain says it's going to step up, but we're not spending the money fast enough at the moment. So the Europeans are putting together a much more cohesive defense package. The Europeans are not short of numbers of troops on paper or ships or aircraft or artillery systems, but we're short of all the enablers, and that's what we've relied for the Americans on.

10:54Niall:The enablers are logistics, so transport, aircraft that can carry heavy equipment, air-to-air refueling, intelligence in particular, space-based intelligence. We've relied entirely, entirely on the American space network for our information, and they've always shared it, which is great. And that can't be relied upon in the future. This is going around in sort of interesting circles because as the Europeans step up and say to the United States, look, we're doing our own thing. We are doing this. American companies are saying, hang on, you're cutting us out. Lockheed Martin and Boeing say, you're cutting us out in favor of European companies.

11:28Niall:They say, well, actually, you're not reliable because you're part of a system that might pull the plug on all of us. And so there is a sense in which we're saying to the American, look, you can't have it both ways. Either he wants to stand on our own feet or you want to sell us all your equipment. You can't have both. That argument is getting going now and it might become quite powerful actually at some point in the future. But, you know, are the Europeans moving ahead? Yes, they are. Are they moving ahead fast enough? No, they're not. Are we able, without the United States, to enter into a major war with Russia?

11:56Niall:No, at the moment.

11:57Michael Clarke:So what do we spend our money on? I mean, if there is this 800 billion kind of European fund and there is going to be, of course, closer to the end of the parliament than many would like, more money to be spent on British defence. What do we spend it on?

12:10Niall:The thing on the shopping list is, first of all, command and control. So we need digitised command and control at a higher level than we've got without having to rely on the Americans for it. Secondly, what's called deep fires, which is ballistic missiles, medium-range and long-range ballistic missiles, of the sort you see in Ukraine, which can hit behind the lines. Air defence, as we've seen at Cyprus, the European air defence is hopeless. It's patchy, to say, at best. And then the transformative technologies. We say drones, but we mean robotics. The robot tanks, robot dogs, I mean, robot individuals, as it were.

12:43Niall:And they're very useful. They carry all sorts of stuff. Robot stretchers. I mean, they use them in Ukraine. You know, a little robot turns up with a stretcher on wheels, and the injured man pulls himself onto the stretcher, and it goes back. That's remarkable. I suppose I should add to that five space-based assets. We've got to be able to launch our own stuff into space and use it in a proper way rather than just keep leaning on the Americans.

13:05Michael Clarke:We've heard from Keir Starmer, you know, this far and no further when it comes to the war with Iran. What would a prolonged US-Israeli conflict with the Islamic Republic, what would that mean for France, Germany, the United Kingdom?

13:21Niall:Really good point, Neil, because as soon as this started on Saturday, I thought to myself, this is going to split the transatlantic allies even further. There's no good that's going to come out of this because the European allies, unless things change very radically, and I don't see how, the European allies are not going to go in with this. We're not going to come in behind the United States and help. If this gets to be a longish war lasting a few months and the Americans say, where are our allies? They're not going to come from Europe. So I think this war and the things around it will increase the polarization between European attitudes and the United States attitudes and will increase the polarization in the United States as well.

14:02Niall:So the MAGA Republicans will get even more angry with the Democrats and the Democrats will be more sympathetic to what the Europeans are saying. So it's not only a national-to-national argument, it'll be an internal argument as well. And it will probably filter into our politics as well. You can already see it in British politics now. You know, this war is dividing our own politics. At one time, the attitude that Britain took towards any international issue was everybody lined up behind it as a matter of national unity. Well, that's our foreign policy. We'll stick with it. Gone are those days.

14:30Niall:Absolutely.