Why Germany's far right is on the verge of its biggest win since WW2

0:02Sky News. The full story first.

0:11The far right is closer to power in Germany than at any point since the war. And this is why.

0:27Hi everyone, Neil here, and look, you hardly need me to explain why a far-right breakthrough in the country that Hitler called home sets alarm bells ringing. For more than 80 years, Germany's political system has been built around a very simple promise. Never again. And yet in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, the Alternative for Deutschland party, one classified locally as right-wing extremist, is now on the verge of an extraordinary election victory. They have members of the party who have a history of being part of the neo-Nazi movement, for example. They have supporters who I saw with Nazi symbolism.

1:05So far, so scary. But here's what makes this story particularly interesting. The man who could take the AfD into government does not come across as some snarling throwback to Germany's past. Ulrich Sigmund is young, polished, relentlessly cheerful, and to many of his supporters, refreshingly normal. Oli, are you the most dangerous man in Germany? I'm not. Ask the people. We write history here. Work up the Germany. Work up the Saxony Allies. Our Europe correspondent is Alistair Bunker. Ali, you're in Berlin at the moment, but you've just got back from Saxony and Hult. Just tell me about the place, but also, of course, what we're looking forward to on September the 6th.

1:45So Saxony Anhalt is a state in East Germany, about an hour to a drive outside of Berlin. It's kind of a mixture of very pretty countryside, some medieval towns and quite a lot of industry. And like a lot of East Germany, it is a bit poorer in places compared to, say, the capital of Berlin or parts of the West. And on the 6th of September, there will be state elections. They're a big deal just to explain the person who wins and becomes a state leader is like a US state governor. So they've got far more power over what goes on within their state. Power over the police, power over the educational system, for example.

2:24So that is why an AFD victory, if it happens, would be really significant. Exactly where is the polling at the moment? Because we've talked about the AFD a number of times on this podcast at a national level. At a state level, and particularly in this state, how are they doing? About 42-43%, according to current polls. So almost twice as far ahead as anybody else. The question mark is not will they be the largest party, but will they get an outright majority? German politics tends to be coalitions. If some of the smaller parties, and in this case like the Green Party, don't meet a 5 % threshold, their votes will get redistributed.

3:06So my point being is that AFD might not need to achieve 50 % or above in order to get a majority. And that is why a lot of analysts and commentators here in Germany think, and so do AFD, that they could be on course to get a majority. If they do, they will become the first far-right party since the Second World War in Germany to get a majority in a state election. Just walk us through the more recent history of the AFD, the alternative for Deutschland, the alternative for Germany. I suppose a clue to the direction that they wish to take the country is in the title. I'll take it back to the beginning because actually it's not that long ago.

3:462013 is when they first ran for the Bundestag. Back then, it was much more of an anti-EU party put together by sort of disaffected politicians from the CDU, which is one of the main parties here. And being against the EU and wanting to change the relationship with the EU and the euro, etc., that was their driving factor. But since then, there's been a sort of successive change of leaders, and they've become far harder in their policies, and particularly adopting very strict policies towards migrants, particularly Muslims who are in Germany. That was all accelerated by Angela Merkel's policy of allowing about a million Syrian refugees into the country.

4:28So they have sought to capitalise on that. They're now the largest opposition party. And so over a pretty short period, you know, between 2013 and now, they've gone from being a fringe insurgent protest party, and they would say they still are a protest party, but one that is now part of the mainstream. 42 % of the vote, I mean, that's an approval rating that politicians in this country can only really dream of. But when you are there, when you are in Saxony-Anhalt, just how obvious is the support for AFD? Well, I'd say it's obvious in two ways. Firstly, Germany's got quite a culture of having a lot of political posters and billboards by the sides of the roads on lampposts, etc.

5:12during election times. And the AFD ones are very prominent indeed. And then I've spent time at a number of AFD rallies, very well attended. What you might expect from Trump-type rallies in the United States, for example. Thousands of people coming out to small market towns on a weekend. Quite a family atmosphere in some respects. A lot of people there with their children. And Saxony-Anhalt as a state, if any state is going to vote AFD, it kind of would be Saxony-Anhalt. That is kind of their core hinterland. Well, why? What is so specific to this part of Germany that makes it such a fertile breeding ground for AFD policy?

5:51Well, partly parts of the East are poorer than other parts of West Germany and Berlin, for example. And so that plays into their politics because they feel that they are left out, ignored. There is also, because of the history in East Germany, under Soviet rule really until 1989 when the wall came down, Amongst quite a lot of people, there is still a nostalgia. Some people actually kind of hark back to the past. They think they were better days. They think they had, ironically, more freedom in those days. And that is what drives a lot of their politics. We have seen a shift to the right in a lot of politics across Europe and elsewhere in recent years.

6:32On what basis can we designate this party as being very firmly of the far right? The AFD have been designated by German domestic intelligence as being an extremist far-right party Now the AFD will dismiss that and say well look you know the intelligence agencies are kind of ultimately Overseen by the current government of the day and so that you can't pay any attention to that But they are officially designated as a far-right party There is a real difference between what you see on the ground when you speak to their politicians And you speak to some of their people because the politicians are pretty slick They know what to say and importantly, what not to say most of the time.

7:11So they put forward and they portray policies that might be controversial with a small c, but they will say are quite reasonable. It's what lies behind that is far more sinister. Or if you actually read more deeply into their policies, it does become far more alarming. And then they've got a history as well, some of their leaders, of saying blatantly racist or controversial comments in the past. One of their former leaders said that the era of Nazi Germany was just a mere speck of bird shit in a thousand years of successful German life. so dismissing the Nazis and what they did is irrelevant if you like.

7:58That's just one example those kind of sentiments over the years have been expressed a lot. They have members of the party who have a history of being part of the neo-Nazi movement for example. They have supporters who I saw with Nazi symbolism, things that reference the late 1930s and the 1940s. So, you know, that is where AFD, I think, stands as a party that's not just far right, but an extremist organisation. Sure, but to what extent is discussion of the Second World War, of Hitler, active in German politics. I ask the question because clearly, if you're polling 42%, the idea that in the public mind that you're somehow associated with Nazism or neo-Nazism, it doesn't seem to be doing them any disservice right now.

8:52You know, if we echo a lot of what we see in far-right parties or nationalist parties, you know, we see with Trump in America, his supporters forgive him a lot. They forgive him far more than they would other politicians. And I think that some AFD supporters would be like, I don't want anything to do with Nazism. I don't like it. But they forgive AFD or members of the AFD who have in the past said things related to Nazi Germany because, you know, they are disaffected. They do feel forgotten by mainstream politics. When you come to their policies for right now, firstly, clearly anti-migration, anti-Islam, saying that from day one, they would look to deport any migrant who's not supposed to be here.

9:42And they'll say, oh, it's just the people who are not supposed to be here. Anybody else, if they want to contribute to society here, they're welcome to stay. But as I said, you look a little bit deeper into their policies and you realise that, you know, within it, you can see how the criteria for people to stay could become so hard, so tough, that actually really what they want to do is they want to do what's called re-migration, which is what one of their co-leaders said, throw out everybody who is not naturally born German. Still, to be polling at 42 % certainly suggests that at least on the face of it, they have moderated their tone, they've moderated their language, and they've managed to communicate the message in a way in which those previous leaders simply didn't.

10:24So this brings us to Ulrich Siegmund, the man who would be Minister President of the region. Young, 35 years old, former perfume salesman, good-looking guy, big smile, charming, the face of AFD in Saxony-Anhalt, and is doing very well and looks set to become possibly the new state leader in Saxony-Anhalt. It's an AFD rally, and Ulrich Siegmund is supposed to be here. I haven't seen him yet, but judging by this queue, I think he's somewhere down this way. How long did you queue for? One and a half, two hours. Two hours. Yeah. Worth it? Yeah, absolutely. Why do you like him? Uli. Yeah. Unbelievable.

11:11Unbelievable too, for you? Yes. He clearly charms the people who waited for hours to meet him, cues stretching back a very, very long way. And he has a charm that has captivated a lot of Saxony Anhalt. But he's also been described by The Spiegel magazine as the most dangerous man in Germany. You know, he is putting forward these policies which include banning the LGBTQ rainbow flag in schools, which people will say goes far deeper than just banning a flag in schools. It's actually a dislike of homosexuality full scale, saying that the children of migrants or refugees and disabled children should be schooled separately from mainstream education.

11:54So again, advocating segregation in that respect. And whilst you try and challenge these people on these policies, firstly, like a lot of nationalists I've interviewed around Europe, even if they speak impeccable English, and he does speak very good English, they want to speak in their own language. So it's very difficult to then challenge them, but knows how to say things. They've got very rehearsed answers and they know how to put it forward. Oh, you know, don't worry about this policy. It's not a big deal. Look, you know, we're totally reasonable. But, you know, the people, as I say, who look far deeper and have been following them for years and years say, you know, that is just very, very much surface level.

12:32If they get into power, whether it's in the state or potentially, who knows, one day nationally, what they have in mind, what they want to do, their intentions, would just totally change Germany and take it back 100 years. There's a Riggs-Hiemann. And look what he's signing. Copies of the Spiegel front cover. The front cover that described him as the most dangerous man in Germany. And a lot of people in this queue have that magazine. Obviously, you wanted to speak to him directly. You chased after him. When you were there with him, how did he impress you? What effect did he leave with you? Oli, Oli, quick word for Sky News.

13:11Not today, I'm so sorry. We hope to win an election. He didn't have time for me the first time that we ran into him. He said, look, I've got all these people wanting to meet me. They're the priority, which again is music to the ears of people who want to come and see him. But, you know, in the end, we did get a bit of time with him, five, ten minutes maybe, just before he went on stage to give an address. I was reading your manifesto, your policies. You said that on day one, you'll start deporting illegal. migrants, asylum seekers, would you have some sort of like German version of ICE? So of course you would intend to have a task force.

13:45But our goal is actually to turn off the incentives so that people voluntarily leave Germany and Saxony Anhalt, who have come here to at least take advantage of the system. When he did go on stage, he referenced the fact that we were there, the sort of, look, Look, journalists from the UK have come to see us. Look, we're going international now. So they're very, very good. As we've seen, you know, in far-right parties, whether in Europe or elsewhere in the world, they're very, very slick in their messaging. And I asked Ulrich Siegman this, would you continue to support Ukraine if you got into power?

14:20And he said, no. What's the justification? The on-the-record justification is we need the money for ourselves to give to all of these people at this rally, you know, who want better lives. But what lies beneath it? A closeness with Moscow, a closeness with the Kremlin. Meetings have happened between the party and the Kremlin. An AFD victory in Saxony-Anhalt will be music to the Kremlin's ears.

14:52To what extent will it shape German politics? As you've already said, this is an election in a part of eastern Germany with some very specific demographic and historical traits that lend itself to being a fertile ground for AFD vote gathering. The rest of the country, does it necessarily translate there? You do get AFD support the breadth of Germany. I've met people who'd come from Bavaria, I've met people who'd come from the far west of Germany to support AFD. But it's not the same outside East Germany, it's not the same level really outside of a couple of states in East Germany. It's certainly not the same in Berlin, which is a much more liberal capital city as many capital cities would be.

15:31OK, so how would it shape German politics? Firstly, AFD currently have a large number of politicians in the Bundestag. So it wouldn't be a sort of a total revolutionary breakthrough in that respect. But there's a thing in Germany called the firewall. And it's a political mechanism that dates back many, many decades, where there's a sort of an agreement between all of the parties that they would do everything possible to shut out the far right because of Germany's past. And an AFD victory, an outright victory in Sachsen-Anhalt could shatter that firewall. The other two things that an AFD victory would do, it would just be yet another stepping stone in their increasing popularity.

16:13And they have visions of winning, if not the next federal elections, then possibly the one after that. But for Friedrich Mertz, the German Chancellor, who's on pretty shaky ground at the moment, a massive loss like this might have some of his party turning around and going, as we saw with Keir Star and Andy Byrne not that long ago, saying, you're not the guy to keep leading us. I'm not sure who would put their head above the parapet to tell Friedrich Mertz that. But an AfD victory would, again, weaken his position even further. But if we do, as you say, look ahead to not the next set of federal elections, but the ones after that and potential significant AFD gains.

16:51I mean, other European capitals, what will they be thinking right now? I would look ahead just a year or two. You have a right-wing party in George Maloney's party in power in Italy. You have the national rally in France, who are, according to the polls, favourites to take over the presidency next when the elections are next year. So you could have Marine Le Pen as the new French president. You have reform. They might have stumbled slightly of late, but still very much one of the main challenges in any future British election, general election, whenever that might come. It is not impossible to start imagining that the three, four main powers and economies in Europe, France, Britain, Germany and Italy, could either have far right leaders or leaders on the very right wing, or at least have significant far right political presence in those countries in just the next couple of years.

17:52Ali, thanks very much. and that's your lot for today do remember to get in touch with your thoughts I'm sure you've got plenty on the rise of the far right in Germany of all places the email address why at sky.uk we're back tomorrow