Why Russia is threatening the UK... again

0:01Sky News, the full story first.

0:10British drones are striking deep inside Russia. Moscow says Britain will face the consequences, and this is why.

0:35But on my podcast, Stuff Matters, I will uncover the deeper stories behind each of them. You will see how together they tell a fascinating new story about the world we live in. The first full series of Stuff Matters is out now. Just search for it on your podcast app and follow.

0:57Hi everyone, Neil here. And as regular listeners will know only too well, Russia threatening Britain isn't exactly new. But this time Moscow is pointing to something pretty concrete. Reports that British-made drones have been flying deep into Russia and hitting targets. The Kremlin says the more Britain gets involved, the higher the price it will pay. But the Prime Minister isn't for blinking. We are providing support so that Ukraine can defend itself. We are not fair-weather friends. We will be there in Ukraine's hour of need and that won't change. In other words, Britain is sticking with Ukraine, whatever Moscow says.

1:35But what Ukraine is doing with these long-range strikes is interesting in and of itself. It's not just attacking military bases. It's hitting oil refineries, fuel supplies, transport networks, even the warehouses Russians use for their online shopping. The aim is to make the war more expensive for Putin and much harder for everybody else to ignore. So is it working. However, Bennett is our Moscow correspondent.

2:03Hi, for good to see you again. Look, threats from Russia are, by this point, nothing new. So let's be absolutely clear. What is it that the UK have done that's put Russian noses out of joint? And what have they said in response? Yeah, so this all came out in a report over the weekend, actually, in the Sunday Times, which reported that the UK, for the first time, had allowed Ukraine to use British drones for strikes deep inside Russia. So not just on Russian positions in occupied Ukraine, which we knew was already happening, but it strikes inside Russian territory, which for Moscow is, well, they draw a distinction there.

2:39It's politically different, politically much more serious for them. And so they've accused the UK now of being a direct participant. They've accused the UK of escalating the conflict and they've threatened these consequences, unspoken consequences. consequences. I've got a little excerpt of this statement from the Russian embassy in London. The deeper the UK's involvement in the conflict and the greater its support for Kiev's terrorist machinery, the higher the price it will pay. So really kind of strong stuff from them. So when Moscow talks about Britain paying a price, how seriously should we be taking that?

3:16That's the first question we should be asking, because as you say, it's not the first time the Kremlin has said this kind of thing. You might remember when the UK allowed Ukraine to use British made storm shadow missiles for strikes deep inside Russian territory. Very similar situation. There was lots of kind of frothing at the mouth from the Kremlin, lots of threats and warnings both before that decision. After it ultimately came to nothing. And I think judging by the UK's response this time, they're probably thinking it's the same again, because the MOD, a spokesperson there said that Britain stands shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine.

3:50So not backing down, I think they kind of view this more as a message from Moscow for its internal audience, for Russians back home, because they know the Kremlin kind of uses this language to sound tough to its domestic audience, to reinforce its framing and narrative around the war, casting the West as the warmongers, and also to get Russians to rally around the flag right now at a time when the war, its effects are being really felt at home and support for it appears to be waning. Not discounting any of that either. But am I wrong when I look at the response that we've had from the Ministry of Defence, from the Prime Minister Andy Burnham, and I see that as a hardening of the British line?

4:30Yeah, exactly. I think they're basically saying, come on then, come and have a go if you think you're hard enough. We think you're just all mouth, no trousers kind of thing. Okay, okay. So, Cyber, try and put those British drones into context for us. I mean, What sort of campaign is Ukraine now waging against Russia? The drones in question supposedly come from two British companies, and they're being used in these long-range strikes that are going well inside Russia, you know, not just 1 ,000 kilometres. It's more like 1 ,500, over 1 ,000 miles, in fact, deep inside Russia in some cases. So really, really quite far.

5:04And it's happening more and more frequently. First of all, over the summer, Ukraine was really targeting the oil refineries. that led to all these huge plumes of thick black smoke on the horizon, both outside St. Petersburg, also outside Moscow. Really quite dramatic footage. Now they're more targeting these warehouses belonging to Russia's biggest online retailer called Wild Breeze. It's kind of Russia's answer to Amazon. And we've talked a lot about this over the past month or so. That's when the campaign started over the summer. And in both cases, they're kind of really trying to target at Russia's economy.

5:41So oil refineries, obviously oil is the lifeblood of the Russian economy. It's a way to make it harder for the Kremlin to finance the war. As for Wild Breeze, partly it's a way to make Russians, ordinary Russians, feel the effect of the war. Everyone's a consumer, lots of small businesses use the platform to sell their items. And then there's all those businesses and franchises that run the pickup points too. But also it's at the heart of the Russian consumer economy too. So it's a way to damage the economy, damage the logistics network as well. And it appears to be really having quite a lot of success, Kyiv, with this campaign, because in the past month or so, they've targeted well over 20, successfully 20, wild breeze sites across Russia.

6:26What does it say about the state of the war that we have seen this evolution in the targeting from, at one point, almost purely military targets to those economic targets that you've mentioned, and also those that are clearly being designed to try and strike some sort of psychological effect into the Russian populace. Yeah, I think you're right. We have kind of entered this new phase now where Ukraine is trying these different strategies to try and have more of an effect, both economic, but also on the state of mind and the morale of everyday Russians. Because we saw that despite Ukraine fighting back for three, four years, President Zelensky was struggling to kind of make his message land with the likes of President Trump in the US.

7:11But ever since, he's got all these successful headlines and images on the front pages of these massive plumes of black smoke in the background of the Russian Economic Forum, the Russian Davos a few months ago, also just outside Moscow, Muscovites walking by with a huge plume of black smoke. These are really, really powerful images. And they grab the attention of Trump. And we've seen in the past few months, as Ukraine has changed its strategy, the relationship between Zelensky and Trump shift. They met in Washington at the end of July. Lots of warm words on both sides. And it feels like Trump is viewing Zelensky more as a winner, as Ukraine more with the upper hand.

7:50And we know Trump likes to back winners. And this was what drove Ukraine's strategy, shift in strategy. Yes, it wants more and more Russians to feel the effects of war. Yes, it wants to make it harder for the Kremlin to finance its invasion. But ultimately, I think this was more a PR strategy designed to embarrass Putin back home at a sensitive time with elections coming up, but also to try and affect change diplomatically on the international stage. But is there any evidence that this new strategy is having the sort of significant economic impact that clearly Vladimir Zelensky would like. I mean, you and I have previously talked on the podcast about fuel shortages.

8:29There have been tangible effects in Russia, for sure. So with the oil refineries, end of June, I think it was widespread fuel shortages across Russia. Crimea in particular was hit by this. There were restrictions on what motorists could buy in many parts of the country, particularly in Moscow, long lines as well. Reports of people queuing for hours, if not days, to fill up their tanks. These are very, again, powerful images and ways of making Russians feel the effects of war. Again, with targeting Wildberries, as I say, it's at the heart of the consumer economy. So you've got lots of kind of other businesses attached to it and relying on this platform.

9:06by destroying all these warehouses of stock and disrupting this huge logistics network, the ripples are felt further down the consumer economy. All the people who run the pickup points, all the small businesses that sell their wares on this platform, and then all those just everyday consumers. It's basically like the UK. Everyone's a consumer of Amazon. In Russia, everyone's a consumer of Wildberries. And there is some figures, actually, I can point to. So said to be£35 billion to the Russian economy. So it is really, really quite considerable. There's the effect on morale, the PR effect as well.

9:45Ukraine seems to have shifted the narrative. Everyone's talking about the tide is turning. I'm not sure it actually is on the battlefield. No one's really making any considerable gains. But now it's become much more about a PR war. And also there is an economic cost to it.

10:09Hello, Ed Conway here. Here is what might sound like a slightly random question. What do AirPods, bananas and a pair of shoddily made running trainers from the 1970s have in common? On the surface, not very much. But on my podcast, Stuff Matters, I will uncover the deeper stories behind each of them. You will see how together they tell a fascinating new story about the world we live in. The first full series of Stuff Matters is out now. Just search for it on your podcast app and follow.

10:48On the economic cost, I'm about to lose count of the number of times on this podcast that I have opined, well, it looks like Russia's economy is on the brink of collapse, and it has proved remarkably resilient over the course of this war. So are we talking about genuine strategic pressure or is this just a, I don't know, a sort of an expensive disruption that Russia can actually get its way through? Yeah, I think it's the latter. That's a good way of putting it. Expensive disruption. I mean, Russia is an advanced economy. Clearly, we know that. It's not just about to fall down at any moment. It's got all these other parts of the economy that it can take money from.

11:24If it wants to, all this fat it can still trim from other parts like welfare, like healthcare, like infrastructure projects. All of that is already seeing funding being diminished and being taken off and hived off and going to the military and the defence sector. The defence sector is now basically cannibalising the rest of the economy. And that can continue for some time. It's on a war footing, but it's not an entire war economy. They're trying to basically still wage war without anyone realising it so that the rest of the country still functions. And that will just get harder and harder to carry on.

11:59So I think Russia can carry on prosecuting its war for some time. But I think the problem now back home for Vladimir Putin is more the narrative, the PR exercise. It doesn't look like he's winning. and that message of how everyone is standing together, that victory will be inevitably ours, that is getting much harder to land. You're not in Russia at the moment, but when you were last, was it detectable that the public perception of the Ukraine war was moving as a result of the Ukrainian strategy, that far from it being miles over there in that direction, they were really starting to feel that the war was on their doorsteps in a way in which they hadn't before?

12:41I think the answer is yes. And I say that because of a couple of interactions I had, actually, when I was there last. And this was after some drone attacks in Moscow, one not far from where I lived, actually. And in the lift going downstairs of the building, someone else got in, one of our neighbours and said, just totally unprompted, these drone attacks are getting quite scary, aren't they? And that is the first time in four and a half years of war that someone said that. That's quite rare for people to speak openly about the negative effects of war. And that wasn't the only interaction like that.

13:16I had someone else said to me, this time it was a friend, a Russian friend, said that they were woken up by a drone going past their window, living on the outskirts of the city. Again, speaking of fear and anxiety. And that was a few months ago. The anxiety is definitely kind of seeping into society. And no wonder, because these kind of attacks are so visible now, they can't be ignored. These huge plumes of smoke on the doorsteps of major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg. Also, people getting killed now more and more. The papers can't ignore it. And don't forget also the other kind of attacks as well.

13:54There was a bombing at a high end restaurant in the middle of Moscow, which Russia blamed on Ukraine. All of this is really impossible to ignore. Russia kind of spins it as best they can, saying it's terrorist attacks, trying to get people to, again, rally around the flag. Some people do. But more and more you're getting in those interactions you have. And our team there still has with people is that people more express kind of fear and concern. people aren't talking so much now about wanting outright victory. They just want the war to be over. But is there evidence that this is turning into real political pressure on Vladimir Putin?

14:31Because, you know, frankly, given Russia's obsession with strongman presidents, it doesn't necessarily follow that a little bit of caution and a little bit of unease means that people are pointing a finger of blame at Vladimir Putin. It's still very illegal to express any kind of dissent in Russia against the war. So it's hard to gauge kind of public opinion. But I think there is a couple of things I'll say to this. One is that we've got this, Russia is holding parliamentary elections in about a month's time, for the first time since launching its so-called special military invasion. The outcome, we all know, is a foregone conclusion.

15:07Vladimir Putin's, the United Russia Party, the ruling party that Putin backs, is clearly going to win. All the other parties, bar one, support the Kremlin. But that one, called the Yablica, has just been banned from taking part in the election. Supposedly, it is because it was found guilty of accepting or receiving undeclared funding from abroad and from the West, and supposedly means it can't take part in the election. And I think that really tells you how nervous Vladimir Putin is right now about public sentiment. Yes, the party wasn't expected to win many seats in this election, but it would have given people a chance to show and register opposition to the war.

15:53And so any kind of uptick in their support in certain districts would have been embarrassing for Vladimir Putin, who, as I say, likes to present this kind of united front, everyone behind him and against Ukraine and the West. And the second thing is that we can see from the only kind of polling that support for war does seem to be slipping somewhat. So there's this independent poster called the Levada Center, which does these kind of monthly polls. They are on the foreign agents register run by Russia, so seen as a kind of negative influence on society. But according to their poll in July, support for the actions of Russia's armed forces fell to 66%.

16:33So still above 50, supposedly, Obviously, not that many people are going to be saying, yes, we're against the war if they're asked. They're still going to be very wary. But that's quite interesting because it's the lowest level since February 2022 when the war started. So clearly, support has started to wane. Ivor, let's kind of conclude where we started off. These strikes, obviously now assisted by British weaponry. Do you think the strikes are bringing an end to the war any closer? or are we perhaps creating a greater risk of a dangerous confrontation between Russia and Ukraine's Western allies?

17:09Given how long the war has gone on, four and a half years now, it's very hard to say whether anything is going to bring it militarily closer to an end. For most of those four and a half years, I'd say most defence analysts would say outright victory for either side is pretty much impossible. People thought it might happen right at the start for Russia, but now it seems very, very unlikely for either side. On the battlefield, gains are minuscule. It's more about this kind of taking the war deeper into either country and affecting the morale of those populations because that then feeds into recruitment, how hard it is for either side to continue populating their armed forces.

17:50It's the manpower issue and then also the money issue, how hard it is to continue financing the war, which Ukraine is trying to target quite successfully now, it appears, with these strikes on all refineries and also Wildberries. I think the bigger question is diplomatically. That's what's going to hopefully bring an end to the conflict. I think that's what everyone realises. That's going to bring the quickest end to the conflict. But again, that feels like quite some way off because peace talks, they're a distant memory. It's been months since they were held. They've been stalled since the US launched its war in Iran, and no sign of them picking up.

18:26I think as for whether this brings us closer to direct confrontation between Russia and the West, I think that now is the key question. Because the more these kind of attacks go on, will it actually make Vladimir Putin soften his stance? I think that's highly unlikely. having gone this far into the conflict, he's not suddenly going to turn around and say, OK, fine, I got it wrong. That would be far too damaging for his legacy and probably his life, to be honest. So I think more likely is potentially an escalation. He will have to escalate his way out of this crisis to regain the narrative and show Russians that he is still the powerful leader he promised to be and the protector he promised to be.

19:10So potentially that could be another mobilization on the Russian side. It could be potentially an expansion of the conflict horizontally spilling over into other areas or potentially an increase in hybrid warfare, sabotage, that kind of thing, the cutting of undersea cables, trying to bring in other actors or push the West away from supporting the West. Things like that. Potentially one scenario is vertical escalation, the use of different weaponry on the battlefield, potentially the use of a tactical nuclear weapon. I think that's still quite some way off. But the general kind of wisdom is that the more these strikes go on, Putin won't soften his stance, it will actually harden it and look to double down.

19:54Ivor, always great to chat to you. Thanks again. And that is your lot for today. But do get in touch with your thoughts. Plenty of you, of course, getting in touch any time we talk about Putin, Russia or Ukraine, including Martin Callaghan. In response to the last time we focused on Putin, he said this. Isn't it time for stronger action by the rest of the world against Putin, no matter the risk to ourselves? Why are we all watching and doing nothing? Martin, I think that's a point Vladimir Zelensky has been making on repeat. So send us your thoughts and questions coming from today's episode. Why at sky.uk is the email.

20:28We're back tomorrow.

20:48The End

21:06Together, they tell a fascinating new story about the world we live in. The first full series of Stuff Matters is out now. Just search for it on your podcast app and follow.