Why the Hungarian election matters for Putin, Europe and Ukraine

0:02Sky News, the full story first.

0:13The election of Hungary's new Prime Minister has pleased the European Union, wound up Vladimir Putin and made Donald Trump look a wee bit foolish. This is why.

0:30Hi everyone, Neil here. And look, Hungarian general elections aren't usually global news. But this one was a wee bit different. This feels spectacular for us, that we belong to Europe. We proved it, finally. Peter Magyar is Hungary's new Prime Minister. He's just won a huge majority, promising far closer ties to the European Union. Now, that isn't something his predecessor, Viktor Orban, was very keen on. in the 16 years he ran the country, he rather preferred the company of Vladimir Putin, even blocking EU funds for Ukraine. Orban's reign, well, I suppose you could describe it as right-wing, as populist, at times even authoritarian, all of which made him a big favourite of Donald Trump and his vice president.

1:18Mr President, you are on with about 5 ,000 Hungarian patriots and I think they love you even more than they love Viktor Orban. Well, I can't believe that. Now, if you're new to This Is Why, this is the sort of thing we are doing every day. One story, in-depth, letting you know why this particular topic should matter to you. And when it comes to the election of Peter Magyar, it has ramifications far beyond the Hungarian border. Our correspondent Ivar Bennett has travelled from Moscow to Budapest to be there for the results. He joins us the morning after the night before. Ivar, what was it actually like when the result became clear?

1:56Yeah, it was pretty amazing, actually. We were down on the banks of the Danube, the other side of the river, where the opposition had organised this kind of street party, watch party. They had a big screen where the results were coming in. And every time the results pointed to a win for TISA in that area, a massive cheer went up. And gradually, the moment dawned on people that this was happening. And when the news came through that Altman had conceded, I think initially it was just disbelief. No one thought it would come that early. It happened around 9.30 local, I think, two and a half hours after the polls closed.

2:30So really, really quite soon, much sooner than everyone expected. And I don't think anyone expected the scale of this victory for the opposition. So it was disbelief. But then gradually that kind of melted away to relief and then unbridled joy. There were people hugging, kissing each other. There was champagne corks being popped. And then the music started. people were dancing and just this carnival atmosphere took hold. It was really quite incredible to witness. What is the significance of this election? Why are we talking about a result? Is it just the fact, you know, Victor Orban was the longest-serving European leader?

3:06Well, that's part of the significance, certainly. He's been in power 16 years, the European Union's longest-serving leader, as you say, and its kind of most disruptive, most controversial ones, because there's a generation of people here who've only known Viktor Orban's rule. And so many people we spoke to here felt like if he stays in power, if his Fidesz party stays in power, we're just going to leave. So many people told me that in the run up to Sunday's vote. So for them, it's like they've regained their freedom, regained their future. They really, really feel like this is a historic moment for them.

3:38And that came across last night. You could hear the music blaring and pumping around four o 'clock in the morning. here this morning the streets have been listed with kind of empty beer bottles it's really been a lot of people have enjoyed themselves because it's truly historic but truly historic also for the rest of Europe because of what Viktor Orban represents he's run Hungary with what he describes as an illiberal democracy it's made him a poster boy for right-wing populism not just across Europe but also across the world and so this election was really seen as a kind of referendum on that whole concept of right-wing populism, strongman, conservative rule.

4:17And that's why the result is now seen as a kind of big rejection of that. And that's why there's so many kind of consequences potentially for Europe and beyond. Well, we've talked about the loser. Let's talk about the victor, Peter Madjar. Who is he? Yeah, really interesting story. Initially, he was a lawyer, then a diplomat and worked within the Orban Fidesz machine. He was a loyalist. He He was an insider, part of the kind of Fidesz elite. He used to be married to Orban's justice minister who resigned in early 2024. So really part of the whole Fidesz structure and machine. Then he kind of turned his back on Orban about two years ago, kind of came from nowhere in terms of the public consciousness.

4:59And in that time has built this really impressive grassroots movement and united the opposition. He is still a conservative. He's still right of centre. He opposes things like the EU's quotas on migration. He's going to keep that big controversial border fence that Orban constructed over the last decade. That's kind of where the similarities end. His policies compared with Orban on everything else is like light and day, because he is promising to restore the democratic checks and balances that Orban dispensed with, restore the independence of the media and the judiciary here, unlock the frozen EU funds that were frozen because of what Orbán was doing in the country and is promising basically whole scale changes, turning Hungary back away from Russia, back towards Europe.

5:46He's also promising to end Hungary's dependence on Russian energy. So people believe that they're kind of breathing the fresh air of freedom now. He's not, though, the first opposition politician to have said things along these lines. So how did he actually manage to do it? What was the turning point for the Hungarian people in this election, do you think? I think the economy was a major, major factor at play here in delivering this result, because for the last three years, growth has been stagnating, cost of living has been rising, living standards have been falling, wages in Hungary, the third lowest in the EU, and all the kind of corruption and cronyism that Orban has been accused of ruling by over the last decade and a half.

6:30That was kind of seen as maybe not acceptable, but almost allowable by a lot of people here, particularly in Orban's rural heartlands over the past, in previous elections, because the economy was working for them. But now that it's not, they're starting to see the cost of Orban's rule. So there's public services are failing here. healthcare is deteriorating a lot of medical professionals have left there's long waits for medical procedures transport education all of the standards are falling and people therefore have kind of had enough and that's what so many people said to us at polling stations yesterday at the various rallies we went to in the run-up to this election and then the other factor is Peter Maggart really represented that change as I say he came from nowhere two years ago okay he was seen as insider but he wasn't seen as that didn't count against him quite the opposite because of his kind of his his political flip against Orban they felt like look if he's turning against him then then this really it means something he came to the public consciousness by giving an interview with this YouTube channel a couple of years ago that went viral here very popular YouTube channel that kind of propelled him into the public consciousness he built momentum and united the opposition because of his campaign strategy.

7:47It was a grassroots campaign, touring the villages and towns in Hungary's countryside, which is Orbán's heartlands, really capturing the mood. And he crisscrossed the country several times. He did nationwide tours. We caught him a couple of days ago. He was doing six campaign stops a day in the ramps this election to get around all 106 constituencies. Really, really impressive. And that really helped galvanize this kind of mood for change. So clearly there is an awful lot on Peter Madjar's kind of to-do list when it comes to domestic politics. But I think from our perspective, the ramifications of this election could be seismic, felt all the way around the world.

8:25I mean, for starters, you've got to wonder what the mood's like in Moscow right now. Yeah, this is a real blow for Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin because Viktor Orban was Moscow's man inside the EU and inside NATO. He was accused of acting in Moscow's interests, not Brussels, in the sense that he was consistently blocking or opposing aid to Ukraine, most recently that 90 billion euro loan package that he previously agreed to in December. Then in March, he said, actually, no, I'm not going to pass that. I'm going to veto that. And then also consistently kind of derailing, slowing down sanctions on Moscow.

9:02In the run-up to this election, there were numerous scandals about just how deep the links were between Budapest and Moscow. There was a leaked phone recording between Orban's foreign Minister Peter Seato and Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, in which he was alleged with sharing confidential EU information with Moscow. And that led to accusations of treason. So this was a real strategic relationship for Vladimir Putin, acting in Moscow's interest. So it's a real setback. Certainly, they're putting a brave face on it. We just had a comment from the Kremlin, actually. They said, Hungary has made its choice.

9:35We respect this choice. We expect to continue our very pragmatic contacts with the new leadership. I think we'll have to see how pragmatic that is, because in the run-ups this election, Madjar was accusing Orbán of being an agent of Moscow. He's going to turn back to the EU. I'm not sure how much contact he's going to have with Moscow. A lot of the people that you were speaking to in and around the time of the election result kept mentioning Europe and indeed the European Union as a driving force and why they voted for Peter Magyar. I mean, as you mentioned, he is a conservative himself. Does his victory necessarily mean a complete pressing the reset button between Hungary and the European Union?

10:13Yes, absolutely. That was one of his big kind of campaign pillars, this pivot back to the EU. And he's made it clear that that is the direction of travel in the speech he made to his supporters last night. His first kind of trip abroad is going to be to Poland, he said, then Vienna, then Brussels. And the reason is he wants to unlock those funds frozen by the EU over the democratic backslide under Orbán's government. So it's a very much a pro-EU relationship that is going to be restored. There are lots of blue European Union flags being flown outside Parliament last night. Europe, I think, therefore is celebrating.

10:51We've had lots of congratulatory messages from EU leaders. I think they will be breathing a sigh of relief, also celebrating because this thorn in their side has been finally removed. But also when it comes to dealing with Russia, they can present a much more united front in terms of trying to punish Russia over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but also then also help Ukraine in tackling Russia because it means this 90 billion euro aid package, as I say to Ukraine, has been unlocked. They don't need to find a way around Hungary's veto. That veto won't be there anymore. I'm sure Vladimir Zelensky will be welcoming the money and indeed what that money will be able to purchase.

11:29But I wonder if almost as useful to the Ukrainian cause is the fact that we are seeing a more, in inverted commas, united Europe as a result of the Hungarian election results. Yeah, for sure. I mean, there's the economic factor too. That£90 billion is crucial. They said the funding was going to run out at the end of April. They desperately need it. The EU was saying in the run-up to this that they're confident they can find another way around it. It still wasn't clear how they were going to do that, but now they don't have to worry about that. There's also the kind of political diplomatic factor, this more united front.

11:59That is important because Viktor Orban, unlike most of the rest of the EU, Orban continued to meet with Vladimir Putin, kind of giving a diplomatic two fingers up to Brussels. Despite the Kremlin's invasion, he continued to buy Russian oil and gas, despite the rest of the EU trying to wean itself off it. And it really kind of stymied the bloc's efforts to isolate the Kremlin and punish it for its invasion. that now will be removed because Magyar, Orban's successor, is saying that he's going to end that energy dependence on Russia. It's going to take a bit of time, clearly, but the direction of travel is a 180 degree flip away from Moscow, back towards Brussels.

12:39What then, Ivor, about the stars and stripes bedecked elephant in the room? I mean, Donald Trump is not going to be happy about this. He sent the vice president there, in essence, to campaign on Orbán's behalf, didn't he? He did. J.D. Vance flew in here. He was here for two days. He went to a rally where he railed against what he claimed was election interference by the EU while stood beside Viktor Orbán saying, we've got to get this guy elected. Not a great look for Donald Trump, backing a losing candidate, clearly. And I think for him, a real ideological setback. Viktor Orbán is kind of seen as an icon of right-wing populism, of national conservatism, the promotion and defence of Christian values.

13:19That's what J.D. Vance was going on about here. He said they had moral cooperation. He said Hungary and the US represent the defence of Western civilisation. Now that he's been toppled here, that is a real blow for the Trump administration. It's going to colour his relations with the EU as well, because like Putin he had, it was his guy inside the EU, and that's made that relationship very different now for the Trump administration. And I think he will be pretty unhappy, to say the least. And what of Viktor Orban himself? Strikes me that he's not exactly the type of man to exit stage left entirely silently.

13:55That was part of the surprise last night as well, actually. A, the concession and B, coming so soon. In the build-up to this, that was why I was asking people, do you really think he's going to actually go quietly here? Because he's built a whole system that favours his party. He's accused of gerrymandering, which is the redrawing of the electoral map. over the years he's made his party extremely hard to beat and entrenched his support in two of his re-elections he's won super majorities despite getting less than half the vote it's really skewed system here and so people thought you know after this long he's really not gonna just concede defeat everyone was bracing themselves for quite messy legal challenges but there we go he got that concession really early and i think that was partly because of the scale of defeat he had no choice but to accept it.

14:38And he said last night in his speech to his supporters that we're going to serve the country in the opposition. But I wonder if he's going to stick around. I don't know, because he was Prime Minister of Hungary quite a while ago, 1998 to 2002, then was in opposition eight years. So he's been here before. He did come back. This time it feels very different, though. And some ominous words from Peter Maggia last night to his supporters. He said, those who defrauded Hungary will be brought to justice, held to account. Is that just Orbán's allies, individual figures within the leadership structure, or is it Orbán himself?

15:13But the mood here is not one of fear anymore. It's one of joy, unbridled joy. And I think the mood has been summed up by this video that is going viral on social media here, showing the man who's widely tipped to be Hungary's next health minister. on stage last night at the kind of victory party. He's busting some really incredible moves. He's doing the air guitar. He's doing the body popping. And that just really sums up the mood. He's in his suit, but he's just letting rip. It's such an emotional moment and a real incredible moment to witness, actually. I'll keep my fingers crossed that no similar video exists of you and the team, Ivan.

15:52Thanks very much indeed. That's your lot for today. do remember if you're new to this is why make sure and give the podcast a follow that way every weekday evening you're guaranteed to get all you need to know about a story making headlines and if you've any ideas for future topics I should be taking a look at or if you've got any comments on anything we've been discussing email me why at sky.uk I promise I do read them all we're back again tomorrow