Why the May elections matter

0:02Sky News, the full story first.

0:11The upcoming local and national elections could herald a new era in British politics. And this is why.

0:23I'm Sam Coates from Sky News. And I'm Anne McElvoy from Politico. Downing Street drama, leadership battles and policy U-turns. We're on it before it breaks. We take you straight into the rooms where the real political conversations are happening. Smart Insight, clear analysis in your feeds by 7.45am. So you start your morning fully brief for the day ahead in British politics. Hit follow and listen to Politics at Sam & Anne's wherever you get your podcasts.

0:55Hi everyone, Neil here and as it is a massive week in British politics I've decamped to our Westminster studio to pick one of the massive brains that works around here because believe me, what we are about to see could prove seismic In fact, it's probably worth my while just running you through what is up for grabs on Thursday We start with the Welsh Assembly, the Scottish Parliament all London council boroughs. We have mayors in local authorities across London, plus councils in Birmingham, Newcastle, Sunderland, Bradford, Norfolk and the Isle of Wight. I mean, look, on paper, these are separate contests.

1:32Taken together, we could be about to see the biggest shift in British politics in a generation. There are tensions that are going to boil over in a much more dramatic way in these elections than they have done in the past. And I think that's because the challenges facing the country feel greater than I've ever known in my lifetime. Cathy Newman is our new Box Fresh presenter, host, of course, of The Cathy Newman Show, weeknights, 7pm on Sky News.

2:00Cathy, welcome to This Is Why. And look, you know, what a time to have your own political programme in the evening. I mean, it must be fun, but also quite daunting right now. Well, yeah, what a time to be alive, really. I mean, we're living through extraordinary times. What's the Chinese proverb? We live in interesting times. That's certainly true. And yeah, there could be no more sort of exciting time to launch your own show. Certainly. I mean, I've got week one under my belt and that's always the most nerve wracking, particularly, you know, nailing the interview with the prime minister on the first day.

2:30We went sort of around the houses a little bit for that. Yeah, we went up to Blackpool and then came back to London to do the interview in London. So that was interesting. But every day there's some new, you know, huge story to get into. So what could be better, really? And of course, you know, given the fact that we are seeing elections, England, Scotland, Wales, we thought who better to have on the podcast to explain what's going on. So let's start with the most fundamental question. Why should anyone care what happens on Thursday? Well, obviously, you know, we all care what happens to our bins being emptied and, you know, what happens to your local services.

3:02So that's the kind of fundamental question about elections, local elections. But of course, these are national elections too, in Scotland and Wales, for example. So I think the broader question is that this could signal the end of the two party duopoly that has really been going since the 1920s. So if you look, there's an amazing stat that the House of Commons put out that says that since 1945 up until 1970, two parties got nine in 10 votes at every election. And that's extraordinary. That Labour-Conservative duopoly is shattered, entirely gone in these elections tomorrow. So that is huge. It's a complete upending of the political system.

3:40And we've all got an interest in that because, you know, the people who are in the parties who are in the ascendance now, the Greens and reform, they have a completely different agenda, a completely different way of doing things. They're populist and that matters to us all, what happens to the country with those kind of parties in place. Let's get started as we kind of move around the UK. And we're going to start in Wales because potentially something, you know, pretty historic could be happening there. Hannah Woodward is our news editor. She's prepared us this quick primer. Hi Cathy, hi Neil.

4:11Here's your quick guide to what really matters in the Senate elections. First, Labour. They've dominated Welsh politics for over a century and run the Welsh government for 27 years, but that could be about to change. There's even a chance the First Minister, Eleonard Morgan, could lose out on a seat, which would be a huge moment. With six seats in each constituency, it can come down to just a few hundred votes for those final seats, and that could be decisive for the Welsh Labour leader. Another key battleground is across the South Wales Valleys, Labour's traditional heartland. But Plaid Cremory and Reform UK are neck and neck in the polls and are pushing hard.

4:51We saw a glimpse of that in Caerphilly. The question now is whether that can be repeated more widely. Nationally, it looks a tight race, but forming a government is the real challenge. You need 49 seats for majority and no party is close. Most won't work with reform, with the Tories potentially facing wipeout, which could limit reform's path to power. Plaid does have more options, with the Greens or even Labour. Potentially the Lib Dems too, but they aren't projected to make huge ground and could suffer wipeout. And all of this is happening under a new voting system, making things unpredictable.

5:29But one thing is for certain, Labour's reign looks set to end, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK fighting to end it. Well, Kath, let's just pick up on what Hannah was just referring to at the end there. The changes in the voting, look, it's always difficult to call how these elections are going to go, isn't it? Incredibly difficult, in fact. But when you change the system of voting, it makes it even more difficult for people like you to work out what's going on. Yeah, I mean, Hannah encapsulated it brilliantly there, the chaos of it, the unpredictability, but also the seismic impact of what looks like happening in Wales, which is that Labour's dominance of more than a century is over.

6:04We think we can say that with certainty. And, you know, it's extraordinary, isn't it, that, you know, Labour is now, the best they can hope for is third place, propping up potentially applied administration. You couldn't have predicted that. So do you see then people switching from whether it's Labour to applied or Labour to reform? Do you see that as a positive vote for reform or applied or, you know, implied negative criticism of the Labour administration? I think to an extent, it's a howl of pain. And it actually relates to what's going on around the world, because these are unprecedented times of economic pain, economic crisis.

6:40Look at what's happening in Iran. You know, people are feeling this in their pockets. And at that moment in time, I say unprecedented, but I suppose you have to look back to pre-war to see the same kind of undercurrents going on. But people are wanting answers. They think, well, why not? It can't get any worse than it is now. Let's try something new. Let's try something different. And I think that's what's going on here. I wonder if we're seeing something similar taking place in Scotland. Our Scotland correspondent, Conor Gillis, got in touch to tell us his thoughts. Hey, Neil and Cathy, it's Conor Gillis here.

7:09OK, here's everything that you need to know to look out for in this week's Scottish elections. Polls are suggesting the SNP could enter its third decade in power, controlling things like the NHS, the education system and income tax, all of which are devolved. Some analysts here have them winning an overall majority of the seats, which leader John Swinney reckons would be a mandate for securing another vote on Scottish independence, like in 2014. It would be a remarkable turnaround for a party that in recent years has been mired in scandal and a police fraud investigation. Labour once hoped of winning this time around, but that looks like wishful thinking, according to the polls.

7:51They could even slip in to fourth place. The leader, Anas Sarwar, has already created distance with Keir Starmer by previously calling on him to quit. The unionist vote here is split even more this time around with reform. It could come from nothing to become the second largest party. They've been chipping away at the Tories, who are very likely to lose their spot as the main opposition. And the Lib Dems are targeting rural areas once again. And then there's the Greens, who are also a pro-independence party. They're enjoying this election. They've previously been kingmakers in government here.

8:29And it could be hoping for a repeat if the SNP don't win that overall majority. But not a single vote has been counted or cast yet, apart from those postal votes. And either way, the outcome could reshape the very future of the UK. Thanks very much for that, Connor. Do you agree? I mean, the parallels with what is going on in Wales are pretty striking. I mean, Anasawa, Scottish Labour's leader, he was talking a very good game for a long, long time. But for them to go into fourth place. Yeah, and I think, you know, Anasawa is an impressive politician, you know, and it did look as if he was going to be first minister.

9:05The SNP's rule of what, two decades was going to be over. And I think there, even more than in Wales, it's about people there punishing the national party in England to, you know, inflict a bloody nose on Labour. I don't sense that there's a great love for the SNP, but John Swinney's talking up the mandate for independence. I don't think anyone's expecting him to rush to the ballot box. Keir Starmer's been explicit about it. It's not happening. Yeah, it's not happening. And I think that that will remain the position. But I think it's interesting that in Wales and in Scotland and Northern Ireland, you've got nationalist parties after these elections.

9:39They will be ruling the roost and that will have a dramatic implication on politics across the UK. What though of reforms success in Scotland? Look, I'm from that part of the world. And if you'd asked me a handful of years ago, whether it was possible for reform to potentially be the second largest party in the Scottish Parliament, I'd have laughed in your face. I mean, things have changed. Well, I think that's partly about Conservative weakness. And, you know, we haven't talked about Kemmy Badenow's position, but I think that's partly about that. But also going back to what we were talking about, this howl of pain, you know, people are struggling economically.

10:11And I think at that point, you think, well, you know, the SNP is the establishment now in Scotland, isn't it? So try something new, try something different. They're the insurgents. We shouldn't underplay, though, the success of John Swinney in steadying the ship. For a long time, it did look like one of the inevitabilities of Scottish politics was we were going to get another first minister. There was going to be some sort of change in administration. If they hold on, I mean, he'll be a hero to the SNP. Well, and I also think there's a sort of terrible mirror irony there, isn't there, for Keir Starmer, that, you know, he came to power saying that he was going to end the kind of psychodrama and the crisis in British politics.

10:48And actually, there's been more psychodrama in English politics, whereas, you know, the SNP John Swinney has succeeded in being the kind of stable, slightly dull, shall we say? I hope I'm not offending him. But, you know, he has succeeded in doing that where Keir Starmer has failed.

11:06I'm Sam Coates from Sky News. And I'm Anne McElvoy from Politico. Downing Street drama, leadership battles and policy U-turns. We're on it before it breaks. We take you straight into the rooms where the real political conversations are happening. Smart Insight, clear analysis in your feeds by 7.45am. So you start your morning fully brief for the day ahead in British politics. Hit follow and listen to Politics at Sam & Anne's wherever you get your podcasts.

11:41let's come to england and and specifically london as well what are we to look out for on thursday well i think there's there's three stories really in the english elections one is the ascent of reform in the red wall seats seemingly unstoppable yeah an absolute juggernaut there's the greens in london particularly who are threatening labor there and that you know It's very worrying for Keir Starmer because that was seen as sort of an impregnable Labour fortress. And then I think there's the Lib Dems snapping at the Tories' heels, hoping to make gains in rural southern England. So there's three sort of currents there that we'll be looking out for.

12:17Let's start with reform. To what do you attribute this ridiculous amount of success that Nigel Farage has been having lately? Well, you know, he is, as Boris Johnson was, he is a politician who does authenticity. You know, whether you like that or not, he says what he thinks. And a lot of people like that. And you see him getting mobbed down on the doorstep in, you know, coastal towns, for example. He's even getting mobbed in Scotland these days. Yeah. You know, there's a sense that people are fed up with the kind of the identikit politicians who promise so much and deliver so little. I think the interesting tension there is that where reform are wielding power locally, for example, in Kent, they're struggling to make the sums add up.

13:00So again, their promises to do a different kind of politics, to deliver change, I would say are being tested. What about Zach Polanski's Green Party then at the moment? I mean, it is, again, it's a fascinating time in politics, not least because you have a populist party on the right and you've got a populist party on the left. I mean, the Greens are going to go great guns, aren't they? Yeah. I mean, again, there is that kind of authenticity, although some of Zach Polanski's past claims are being seriously scrutinized now in a way that weren't before. And you've seen that with Nigel Farage and the question over the donations and gifts, as he puts it, he's received from a cryptocurrency tycoon.

13:34But with Zach Polanski as well, I think a lot of that, there was a strong support for Jeremy Corbyn's Labour. A lot of those voters right on the left of the Labour Party have now found a new home in the Greens. And obviously that's come with some controversy recently in recent days over anti-Semitism, for example. But I think that you're seeing that Labour left-wing vote sort of fragmenting now. Let's talk about what this could all mean for the state of politics. And from what Conor and Hannah and yourself have been saying, Labour could be wiped out in Scotland. They could be pushed out of control in Wales.

14:08They could lose boroughs across London. They could lose Birmingham. him. How long has Keir Starmer got if all that goes wrong? Well, a lot of his detractors, they're already circling, they're already putting together their leadership bids. I think the key problem for them, for Keir Starmer's opponents, is that there's a crisis on, there's an economic crisis, there's a war on multiple fronts, Iran and Ukraine. At times like that, it risks looking very self-indulgent to have a leadership election. And that's what Keir Starmer's allies are banking on. I think if it is a complete wipeout, Keir Starmer will be under serious pressure.

14:44There's talk now, does he set a timetable for his departure? I mean, we've seen how that movie ends in the past. I think people would put good money on him not being the Labour leader to lead the party into the next general election. But it is not quite as straightforward for someone within the parliamentary Labour Party to replace Keir Starmer as Prime Minister as it was during the conservative days the rules for within the parties are different aren't they yeah and you know that they do make it very difficult to topple Labour leaders but also I think um they're not so good at ditching their leaders Labour you know when it comes to leadership you know Jeremy Corbyn people tried to topple him and didn't succeed the Tories are much better at fratricide than Labour and I think that that you see time and time again the sort of challenges to Keir Starmer talking the talk but are they prepared to walk the walk I wouldn't put money on it taking everything that we've been talking about together.

15:36Something I've been dwelling on for some time now is that this set of elections, Scotland, Wales, England, of course, there are local issues, but it does feel rather more like a referendum on the leadership of each particular party than we've had in quite some time. Twas ever thus, really. I mean, I remember back in the days of Tony Blair, you know, we're both old farts, so we do remember that. We are. That he was getting his general election landslides and then at local elections, people would use it as an excuse to take issue with this, that and the other that he was unpopular over. So I think that's always been the case.

16:07But I think there's extremes in British politics at the moment. There are big divisions out there in the country. There are tensions that are going to boil over in a much more dramatic way in these elections than they have done in the past. And I think that's because the challenges facing the country feel greater than I've ever known in my lifetime. I was born in the 70s. So Feels a bit like that now. But yeah, I was too young to really understand the voting system then. But if the knives are going to be out for Keir Starmer after what we expect to be a pretty disastrous set of results, I mean, no one's predicting the Conservatives are going to go great guns.

16:44So why are we not talking about the imminent demise of Kimmy Badenock? There are a few rumblings about Kimmy Badenock. And actually, Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, you know, I was interviewing him yesterday on the show and I noticed that polling for him is only 51 % of his supporters, his voters, who think he's doing a good job. so that all the leaders, there's grumbling. But I think the difference with Kemi Badenok is that as soon as she came in as leader, people were hugely disgruntled in her party. She faced a very tough start. And since then, she's turned it around a bit. You know, she's been very combative in Prime Minister's questions.

17:18She sat down with me on the show and she was funny and feisty and people like that, people warm to that. So I think she's outperformed expectations, whereas Keir Starmer has underperformed. But of course, the expectation is that this set of elections will be the most positive for Nigel Farage and reform and for Zach Polanski and the Greens. Just how significant is it that we now finally have formalized in a set of elections that which people have been predicting for quite some time? Two-party politics, it's done. It's over. It's huge and it's very unpredictable. So literally anything could happen between now and the next general election and at the general election.

18:00And, you know, that's energising in some ways. And it's also for some people, it's quite frightening because the rhetoric that's being thrown around and the divisiveness of that rhetoric is something that we haven't seen in this country for quite some time. And I think, yeah, I think that's what's weighing on people's minds. Can I just be completely cynical for a second and say that if we are expecting this set of elections to have an incredibly low turnout, the only thing that we can learn from these May elections is that the public isn't particularly interested in politics or politicians right now.

18:31I'm going to be less cynical for a minute and just say some of the apathy I can understand because politicians over the years have made huge promises and they haven't delivered. And I think the concern now is the problems in the country and in the world are so huge that no political leader seems to be quite getting a grip of those problems. There isn't anyone who seems to be really inspiring the public in a way that leaders in the past did. And I feel like that is a genuine issue for politics at the moment. And I also think it's partly that people don't want to go into politics because it's such a hostile world.

19:05And so you see people who get big political donations. We've been talking about Nigel Farage and his gift from the cryptocurrency tycoon. That is concerning if it's going to be rich individuals and people with money who are calling the shots in politics in years to come. If this is truly the end of two party politics and we're in talking of a multipartite state, Doesn't that mean that we are entering a much more unstable era in British politics? And actually, looking at the scale of the problems the country is facing right now, I'd have thought a bit of stability was what we needed. Maybe when it comes to general election, if you're in the middle of a war, if you've got the threat of Russia launching a new war in Europe, you know, threatening the UK, as many say, perhaps that's what people will want in the next general election is stability.

19:53But the issue with that is Keir Starmer promised stability and he hasn't delivered it. And so I think that was a genuine, you know, many of his supporters as well as his detractors say that that was a genuine squandered opportunity. What are you going to be looking out for? Indicators that will confirm to you anything that we've been discussing over the past 20 minutes? I think I'll be looking at how the Greens do in London. Obviously, I'll be looking in Scotland at whether it really is curtains for Labour there. Anasawa got his defence in early, didn't he? Just a wee bit. I mean, Wales, you're looking at the end of an era, aren't you?

20:24and I'll be looking at reform across the board. Scotland, as you've pointed out, Wales too, but also Northern England, the Red Wall and those southern seats, the coastal towns and so on that are under threat, Essex, Sussex, that kind of thing. So yeah, every corner of the country and that's the delight of local elections, isn't it? It certainly is. For me though, the delight is these days. I get to sit in my sofa with a box of popcorn for 24, 48 hours and see what actually unfolds. Where can we see and hear you over the election period? I will be doing an extended version of my show. So it's going to be double the normal length.

20:59So it's a bog off deal, really, two to the price of one. So on air at seven, off air at nine, and we'll have all the remaining results coming in. But most importantly, I think we'll have seen most of the results by then. So we'll be able to bring you top flight analysis of everything that's happened. And it will be seismic. I will be tuning in on Friday. With your popcorn. With my popcorn on my sofa, hoping to understand things a little bit better. Cathy, always good to see you. Thanks very much. Great. Thanks a lot. Now, it's going to take quite some time, in fact, for all the results to come through.

21:29But don't you worry, we've got you covered. Starting, of course, with Cathy on her show, 7pm Friday night on Sky News. Plus, keep your eyes peeled for extra episodes of our political podcast, Politics at Sam & Anz, and of course, Electro-Dysfunction. You're going to see additional episodes of those appearing over the weekend. We are back again tomorrow.

21:54I'm Sam Coates from Sky News. And I'm Anne McElvoy from Politico. Downing Street drama, leadership battles and policy U-turns. We're on it before it breaks. We take you straight into the rooms where the real political conversations are happening. Smart Insight, clear analysis in your feeds by 7.45am. So you start your morning fully brief for the day ahead in British politics. Hit follow and listen to Politics at Sam and Anne's wherever you get your podcasts.