Why the UK has fallen behind on drone warfare

0:01Sky News, the full story first.

0:10The UK is at risk of being left behind when it comes to drone warfare. And this is why.

0:21How does a banana trigger a CIA-backed coup? Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order? What do LED lights say about the future of humanity? I'm Ed Conway and in each episode of my new podcast Stuff Matters I take an object, crack it open and reveal the world-shaping forces hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow.

0:55You only have to look at the fighting in Ukraine to see how modern war is changing. A conflict that started in the trenches has now caught up with the 21st century because it's not guns or missiles that's causing the most enemy deaths. The biggest killer of Russian soldiers on the front line is drones. Menacingly small devices that can be controlled remotely, buzzing and whirring over potential targets before dropping explosives with lethal precision. And perhaps most importantly, they're very cheap to make. So you would expect the UK's cash-strapped Ministry of Defence to be investing heavily in this form of budget-friendly modern warfare.

1:38But as Sky's Defence and Security editor Deborah Haynes has been finding out in Swindon, a potential global hub for drone production, we're at risk of falling behind. The UK will have to make a significant change in its investment in drones. And they don't have a great track record when it comes to procurement, so there is real risk there. But what is absolutely certain is they cannot keep on delaying. I'm Mari Arora and Deborah joins me now. Deborah, thanks so much for being with us. So just start us off, how important have drones become in warfare, especially when it comes to Ukraine and how much it's changed the war in Ukraine?

2:20It's completely transformed the battlefield in Ukraine. By necessity, the Ukrainians who were outmatched militarily by their much bigger neighbor, Russia, have had to adapt and evolve their own capabilities to be able to withstand the invasion. So in the early days of the full-scale invasion, you'll remember the Russians used their heavy armor to come across the border. They were also striking with missiles against Ukrainian targets. And the Ukrainians, they used the best they could. They had those British shoulder-launched anti-tank missiles. They had their own armor. And you'll remember that obviously there was a lot of talk about getting artillery in by the UK and other NATO allies.

3:03But in that mix, I was there seeing how the Ukrainians were adapting to using drones, like using their own people and their own skills. They've got a big technology base and technology knowledge in Ukraine. And so I remember meeting this one person who he was a computer game designer. And this was really early on. He was switching his computer gaming skills to helping to develop chips and technology for drones. And over time, you've just seen this rapid evolution in Crane's ability and Russia's ability to use drones, first of all, from the air, so striking targets with increasing accuracy and at increased range.

3:45Also at sea with these sea drones that are underwater or on the surface. I mean, Ukraine has basically defeated all but the Russian Black Sea fleet in the Black Sea to stop them from being able to operate freely around that area and forcing Russia to pull its ships back and its submarines because they are and continue to be targeted by Ukrainian sea lions. And then as well, more recently, you're seeing ground drones, not just delivering supplies to frontline positions or retrieving casualties, but also engaged in active combat. And just one final statistic that I think really helps to drive home the point.

4:25We were told that now it's something like 96 % of Russian casualties are caused by drones. So that really gives you a sense of that shift in the importance of autonomous weapon systems. Okay. Now, when it comes to the UK's drone ability, how much do drones play a part in the UK armed forces? Are we trained in them? Do we know how to defend ourselves from them? It is actually extraordinary that drones haven't been embraced far more rapidly. It's not a secret. The UK military and other advanced militaries have used drones for a long time. You'll remember the RIPA drones that were used in Afghanistan, in Iraq, but they were much larger, much more expensive weapon systems that would come back.

5:17So they would be almost like a jet without a crew. And so what you see in Ukraine is this rapid adoption of cheap drone technology and adapting those cheap single-use drones to carry explosives and be able to be used to kill targets. And that has changed the battlefield. When it comes to the British military, it has a poor track record of adapting to evolution during peacetime. And of course, no one thinks that currently we are in a time of peace. People talk about it being that place between peace and war, not all out war. And so still, unfortunately, while for the UK, in its support for Ukraine, there has been a lot of risk taking and a lot of ability to be innovative in terms of the investment and their spending that's happening to buy kit for Ukraine, that same innovative spirit is not yet translating into how the UK military buys its kit and also how it fights wars.

6:16So let's talk about the money for a second. We are still waiting on the government's defence investment plan. That's been delayed since autumn of last year. I've seen that you've been reporting perhaps it might be coming this week. We still don't know that for sure. So I suppose the question is, if drones are so cheap, and we need to get a move on with our defence capabilities, then surely it's a no brainer for us to be investing in drones. Yeah, and actually, it's a really interesting one. Because again, another lesson from Ukraine is as fast as you make drones, as fast as the enemy makes systems to counter the drones.

6:56So it really means there's little point in building a whole fleet of drones, because they could well be completely redundant by the time you actually use them. So the key is to have the production capacity to mass produce drones, or maybe mass produce drones that then you can change certain software in them so that they have the most update systems for when they are going to be used. Right now, we have none of that. So I know that the plan is to announce this new drone testing centre in Swindon. And the announcement, I think, was all supposed to be part of this defence investment plan, a big fanfare, belated fanfare.

7:37But as far as I understand, there still hasn't been an agreement between the MOD and the Treasury on the money. I think the Treasury has come back with additional money. It's not deemed to be enough. And so there's still wrangling going on. I think fundamentally, it really points to dysfunction behind the scenes when it comes to the political decision making that needs to be forced down on what is an absolutely fundamental issue, the defence of this country. You mentioned Swindon there. Talk me through what happened when you went to Swindon. You visited a facility, you got to see how it all works.

8:17What did you learn? There's been an expectation that Swindon is going to be this new drone hub for a while now. And in that mix, you've got lots of startup companies that are smelling new business and new opportunities and opening up shop there. I think it's eight drone companies, I was told by the local MP, Will Stone, that are now in or around Swindon. And he's hoping that by the end of the year, that number will have expanded to 20. and actually I went out and visited another company called Niros which is an American drone manufacturer and they've got a UK branch as well and they're setting up shop just outside Swindon and I got to see their one-way attack drone a local sort of man on a quad bike was helping them with demonstrating how the drones work and I obviously couldn't resist asking if I could have it to ride on the back which was very good fun but also it actually was quite like riding around on the back of this quad bike going quite fast but these drones go so much faster i think they said it goes up to 130 kilometers an hour but it's like that sound of the drone coming up behind you and obviously it was just a demonstration and it obviously didn't have any weapons on it but you just got that sense of what it must be like on the battlefield when they have a drone come locking in on them there's very little you can do if you are out in the open so it was pretty chilling actually to see that and get a sense of it.

9:36And obviously I've spent a lot of time in Ukraine and I've spoken to a lot of soldiers that have to deal with that kind of warfare and it's pretty terrifying. Yeah, it does sound terrifying. I mean, when you were there in Swindon looking at these drones, just talk about these businesses for a second. We, the UK, are not their clients. Is that right? So all these drones are being made in and around Swindon, but we're not buying them. Is that what's happening? They want business from the Ministry of Defence. The UK will have to make a significant change in its investment in drones. And it has said it's going to be spending£4 billion on autonomous systems.

10:15And that's not just the flying ones. The first sea lord talks a lot about what he's dubbed a hybrid navy, which will be that combination of crewed ships and then uncrewed sea drones. The same with the Air Force. they want crude planes then swarms of uncrewed airframes. Inevitably, there are going to be the sort of the snake oil salesmen that say that their drone is the greatest thing since sliced bread and actually it's a pile of junk. There really is that pressure for the Ministry of Defence under this new procurement model that they've got. How are they going to be able to identify the credible stuff from the junk?

10:54They don't have a great track record when it comes to procurement, so there is real risk there. But what is absolutely certain is they cannot keep on delaying. And this delay in the defence investment plan has been yet another excuse, yet another obstacle that means we are so far behind. So some of these facilities, they seem to be based in Swindon, around Swindon. Am I right in thinking that some of the ones that you've been looking at potentially could be the largest facility in Europe. And if that's the case, could that make Swindon or the Swindon area a threat for our enemies if they were wanting to debilitate or damage the UK's drone ability?

11:35Yeah, I did actually ask that question to the local MP because the plan is for the testing centre to be the largest drone testing centre in Europe. That's what Will Stone said. But he made the point quite rightly that there are plenty of other military facilities around the Wiltshire area. So they are going to be developing lots of drones. Hopefully they'll be developing lots of anti-drone air systems that can make sure that Swindon, when it comes to looking at our air defence systems, which apparently the UK will be doing, although it hasn't really earmarked enough money for that yet at all, they will have to be selective in the sites that they want to protect.

12:10So you would think if Swindon becomes a drone hub, that would be right at the top of priorities to be protected.

12:22How does a banana trigger a CIA-backed coup? Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order? What do LED lights say about the future of humanity? I'm Ed Conway, and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open, and reveal the world-shaping forces hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow.

13:00Now, earlier this year, General Sir Richard Barons, he's a former commander of Joint Forces Command, he said the British army is so depleted it could only seize a small market town on a good day. From your perspective, is that an exaggeration? How underprepared are we to protect ourselves? We've obviously done a lot of reporting about how underprepared we are, including with the War Game podcast that really brings to life just how limited our capacity is to be able to fight a full-scale war for any sustained period. The problem is, of course, there are big plans and ambitions for the kind of war that we want to be able to fight.

13:47But until there is sustained investment in not just weapons like drones, but even just like ammunition for bullets, for rifles, for example, and for artillery, a lot of our artillery pieces the British army gave to Ukraine, the treasury didn't give sufficient money to be able to buy replacement pieces in sufficient time. And so there are so many gaps in the UK's defences that need to be filled. It has to really be the top priority of government. Governments pay lip service to that, the defence of the nation being the number one priority. If they really believe that, then we wouldn't be in this situation with a defence investment plan that's so many months out of date that there are concerns when it finally is released, hopefully this week, it's not going to have answers to the problems.

14:39Because the problems, since the answers were in the defence review last year, have actually evolved and changed. And so much has changed that we're just not keeping up even with the sort of the reviews. And that's a huge, huge problem. What does it say to you about what the government wants the UK's defence systems to be? Is there a choice to be made between whether we want to be a small to medium power, able to protect ourselves, but not necessarily do much else without huge powers behind us like the US, NATO, or does the UK government want the UK to still be a large military power punching far above its weight?

15:21The problem you've got is that the military that we have is the product of that post-Cold War peace dividend, which means that the size of the armed forces is massively shrunken. The way that the Ministry of Defence functions, yes, there are brilliant parts of the MOD that are absolutely war fighting ready, but there are also big chunks of it that have too much of a peacetime, risk averse, health and safety attitude. And that is where a lot of the frustration lies. Since last year, we've had a national security strategy saying that we as a nation need to actively prepare for the possibility of a direct threat to the home front in a wartime scenario.

16:02And yet, despite that very clear language, there has been absolutely no signal from government to the whole of the country about what it really means and how the priorities need to change. Finally, Deborah, if we don't move quickly enough to correct this, some of the issues that you've pointed out today. How vulnerable does that leave the UK as a nation? Hugely vulnerable. I mean, you don't want to overstate it. We're a nuclear power. So we have nuclear weapons that can be fired at any moment, which is the ultimate deterrent. But the fact that we don't have credible defences right now means that our ability to deter threats, as the Public Accounts Committee, in their report that they published over the weekend, rightly said, it It means that we have less of an ability to deter.

16:50That's what the danger is if we don't fix this fast. Debra, thank you so much. Thanks for joining us. And don't forget to email your episode suggestions to why at sky.uk. This is Why. It's back again tomorrow.

17:10How does a banana trigger a CIA-backed coup? Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order? What do LED lights say about the future of humanity? I'm Ed Conway, and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open, and reveal the world-shaping forces hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow.