Why Trump and Netanyahu are split on Iran

0:01Sky News. The full story first.

0:10Donald Trump has been unable to stop Benjamin Netanyahu launching strikes on Iran. And this is why.

0:25How does a banana trigger a CIA-backed coup? Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order? What do LED lights say about the future of humanity? I'm Ed Conway, and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open, and reveal the world-shaping forces hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow.

0:58Have you ever asked somebody not to do something and they've completely ignored you? Annoying, isn't it? Well then, spare a thought for Donald Trump after he asked Benjamin Netanyahu not to carry out retaliatory strikes on Iran this weekend. The self-styled dealmaker-in-chief may pride himself on the art of persuasion, but Israel went ahead and struck military targets across Iran. Anyway, it is the latest sign the relationship between the two leaders is beginning to feel the strain. Now, Axios reported that you had a phone call with Bibi Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, in which you were angry with him.

1:36You said, are you effing crazy? What are you effing doing? Is that true? Did you speak to him in those terms? I did. I wouldn't say angry. I was a little bit perturbed at his constantly fighting with Lebanon. Donald Trump insists he's the one, as he puts it, who calls the shots in relation to Netanyahu. But a war the US president wanted to end quickly now risks spiralling into a wider conflict. So who's really in charge, Trump or Netanyahu? I'm Jonathan Samuels and with me today is our Middle East correspondent Adam Parsons, who's in Jerusalem. Adam, these Iranian strikes, did they come as a surprise to you?

2:15Not hugely, partly because nothing in this region comes as an enormous surprise and partly because we had seen the steps being taken up the path which was that Israel had attacked the southern suburbs of Beirut and we knew that Iran saw that as a red line now we also know that of course Israel maintained that it carried out that attack in response to a Hezbollah attack into northern Israel. But in a sense, once the Beirut strikes had happened, you thought, well, that is going to be seen as an escalation. But of course, whenever these missiles start flying over, it's always a bit of a surprise, frankly, because it suddenly feels like reality is intruding into not just the world of news, but into your own life.

3:04And you mentioned those Hezbollah rocket attacks into northern Israel. They didn't cause any damage. They were both taken out of the sky by Israel. And yet Israel decided then to go full on into southern Beirut. Yeah. And this question of the proportionality of the response is one that's often thrown at Israel. The idea that that initial provocation is hugely dwarfed by what Israel does next. And in this case, a couple of rockets fired by Hezbollah into northern Israel. And what Israel does then is strikes in a suburb of Beirut, which leave people dead and injured, whereas the initial rockets coming to northern Israel have been pretty much vaporized.

3:47And you have seen what Israel always says about this conflict at the moment is that it cannot tolerate Hezbollah attacks into the communities who live in northern Israel. I've been up there and you absolutely see damage. You see houses that have been abandoned. You see communities that are living in fear. But on the other side of the border, what you're seeing are towns and villages that have been completely destroyed. There are villages in southern Lebanon that have been absolutely razed. There are three and a half thousand people who've been killed by the Israeli military action, about a million people who've been displaced.

4:23So the resultant impact on Lebanon, particularly southern Lebanon, has been enormous. And this single sort of suburb of Beirut is seen as particularly important because this is regarded as a Hezbollah stronghold. And because in a deal done in Washington, D.C., involving America and Israel and Lebanon, it had been highlighted that Israel could not attack Beirut. It was also said Hezbollah couldn't attack northern Israel. Hezbollah wasn't part of that deal. But this was a line that was crossed. And that was the reason that Iran gave for launching its attacks. When it comes to those attacks, they were fairly muted.

5:06Does that mean they were more symbolic rather than aimed at causing maximum damage? Yeah, I think it does. I think on both sides, what you got were attacks that were not nothing, but equally were not everything. They were substantial, so more than two dozen ballistic missiles fired by Iran towards Israel. Now, a ballistic missile is a potentially catastrophic bit of weaponry, but they were all intercepted and everyone knows that Israel has an extremely strong air defense system. And Israel replied by firing missiles of its own, which appeared to have been targeted at military infrastructure and a petrochemical plant.

5:52And then there were further exchanges. The Israeli Air Force attacked the air defense systems in Iran. The Iranians fired more missiles back that, again, were intercepted. And then we went into a period of sort of uneasy peace. Then we had Donald Trump saying, right, everyone should stop firing missiles. And then Lebanon putting out a message saying it was going to stop its military action. And no point, to be honest, did this feel like full-throated actions of nations at a full war capacity. I think these are almost literally warning shots that both sides know they have a lot more weaponry in their arsenals.

6:34But it's almost like a sort of simmering pot that just boiled over but has so far been contained. And we'll talk more about President Trump and the politics of all of this in a moment. But I'm just interested on your opinion when it comes to what Israel's military objective in southern Lebanon actually is. It's to try to destroy Hezbollah. Israeli officials have said in public and have said to me in private, they have absolutely no interest at all in taking land in Lebanon, that they do not want anything to do with occupying. They want to have Lebanon as a peaceful neighbour. The stated aim of Israel is to try to degrade Hezbollah.

7:16And I think they see this as an opportunity that has arisen that maybe they haven't had for a long, long time. The pretext of going in and really pursuing Hezbollah with the backdrop of a war between the United States and Israel and Iran. I think that Israel is now saying in public and in private that it cannot abide the status quo, can't abide Hezbollah continuing to attack its north. So it thinks this is the chance to absolutely degrade, even get rid of that organization. And it's a chance that I think they are desperately trying to take. The question is, how far can they push that before there is some sort of deal in which Iran will try to put in safeguards to protect Hezbollah?

8:05Or there is always a possibility that Iran just decides that Hezbollah is a busted flush and to let it go. But that, I think, is why Israel is going so hard this time, is that it sees an opportunity, that it hasn't had an excuse, that it hasn't had for a long time to pursue Hezbollah way into Lebanon. Yes, that's a really good point. And there is an argument, isn't there, that Benjamin Netanyahu personally would like this to carry on for as long as possible, because he knows that the end will eventually come when there is a deal between the US and Iran, but politically it works for this to carry on for him.

8:41And also he has his legal woes as well, doesn't he? He's got a court case that he's been rolling on for literally years. Donald Trump, you remember, said that he should get a pardon. That's been considered by the Israeli president, but he's got an election coming. I think that's weighing on him more. Now, clearly, in Netanyahu's mind, he's a man who's linked so closely with national security, with kind of strong, sort of almost like the Kismo leadership of the country, that he needs to be seen as this strong leader who is not going to buckle in the face of pressure. He is an extraordinarily successful politician, but he's got a fight on his hands here.

9:21The election has to happen by October the 7th. It could happen earlier than that. And at the moment, it is very, very close. If you go to the bookmakers between Naftali Bennett and Benjamin Netanyahu as to who will be the next prime minister, you won't get much difference between the two of them. It's actually Bennett who is slightly ahead at the moment. So that is why I think Netanyahu feels that he has to show this full-throated, determined Israel-first sort of leadership right now. And does that mean that he is more than willing to ignore President Trump? Because we had that sweary phone call, didn't we, that was widely reported a few days ago.

10:02We've had the president saying this has to stop overnight. And yet it does appear, doesn't it, that Benjamin Netanyahu is more than happy to ignore the president's wishes when it suits him. You talk to any Israeli official, they'll tell you Donald Trump is the greatest friend that Israel could ever hope to have, that the United States are our closest ally. Now, clearly, there's been a fraying over recent weeks. It was abundantly clear that Donald Trump did not want Israel to attack Beirut, that he still feels that there's a deal in the brewing with Iran. that annoyed him. He had that conversation where he said that Netanyahu was effing crazy, and he said that he was effectively the reason why the world hated Israel.

10:48And yet they made up again afterwards. I mean, these are two men who are not that different, you know. They're quite similar ages. They both see themselves as alpha males. They're both very populist kind of politicians of that, you know, I say what I like and I like what I say, bombast. And they both have a loyal base and they both have people who frankly absolutely loathe them. So I guess it's that thing that when you get two of the same electrical charges, well, sometimes they kind of repel against each other. But equally, these two men have formed a pretty close bond in many other occasion.

11:28So I think it would be foolhardy to start writing off the Trump-Netanyahu bromance just yet. Yeah, of course. And it's a very different relationship to certainly the one he had with President Obama, isn't it? I mean, it does seem that Netanyahu is prepared to do things unilaterally in a way that perhaps has surprised some. Yeah, but remember, however much he is close to Trump. The one thing that any Israeli politician has to fight against is the idea that you are allowing this country to become a vassal state to America. Now, that is a particularly difficult challenge when the president is Donald Trump.

12:08A few days ago, he effectively said, well, Benjamin Netanyahu, he does what I tell him to do. And he's repeated that sort of phrase again. I think when we got to the point of Iran has attacked Israel, will Israel respond? It was obvious that Trump didn't want Israel to respond. To me last night, it was also obvious that Netanyahu had to, partly because that's in his character and partly because contacts I was speaking to last night who represent political opponents were effectively daring him not to respond. They were saying, who are you going to put forth, Trump or the Israeli people? In his position, there was no way that he could have not issued some kind of military response.

12:53And I think logically, Donald Trump knew that was inevitable. I think coded what he meant was, don't go absolutely banjo at this. Limited response is what I think Trump would have expected. And that's really what he got.

13:18How does a banana trigger a CIA-backed coup? Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order? What do LED lights say about the future of humanity? I'm Ed Conway, and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open, and reveal the world-shaping forces hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow.

13:52Let's begin to wrap things up by looking at the situation now and how long these conflicts may go on for. There was an agreement wasn't there between Lebanon and Israel, which Hezbollah was left out of, which, quite frankly, was never going to be acceptable to Hezbollah. Where are we in terms of what's happening there? Well, the agreement that was drawn up, to put it into a nutshell, was that Hezbollah wouldn't attack Israel, Israel wouldn't attack Beirut. Both of those things have now happened. That agreement is still there. But after these missile trade-offs, Iran has now said, okay, that's it for the military action, but appears to be saying that it has the right to resume military action if Israel attacks southern Lebanon.

14:44And southern Lebanon is very different from Beirut. So that's a hugely tall order to expect that having seized so much territory in southern Lebanon, having done so much damage, that Israel is simply going to sit there and not engage. It's possible, but Israeli contacts that I've spoken to since that announcement are very dubious. We've had so many ceasefires and so few of them have seen firing actually cease. I don't really know what a ceasefire means anymore in this region, but whatever it is, we have a sort of one now. I'd be very surprised if there wasn't more breaches of it. The question is, when those breaches happen, and they will, how far do they escalate?

15:30And then when it comes to Iran and the US, we are in a situation where Donald Trump said that he was hopeful there could be a deal over the weekend. The weekend has now come and gone and we're in this new situation. Where does it go next? Where we are, I think, at the moment is that the Strait of Hormuz is still paralyzed. And that has caused, as we all know, a spike in oil prices. And that has troubled Donald Trump throughout this entire conflict. I think the Iranian economy is undoubtedly suffering. So behind their strong rhetoric, they would absolutely want a deal. Hezbollah, I have no doubt, wants a deal.

16:12I think Donald Trump wants a deal because he wants to be able to walk away from what has become an ever more messy conflict. And I think he either wants to be able to delay this, to kick the can down the road and to push negotiations about nuclear enrichment to a sort of more distant day to buy himself breathing space, or simply to come up with something that he can present to his base as some form of vindication for this vast amount of expenditure and time and political capital. And don't forget some American lives as well. He's got to have something. I think the State Department knew this, but I think the White House had discovered that the Iranians deserve of their formidable reputation as negotiators.

16:59And I think, let's be honest, once again, America has found itself in a conflict that it thought would be quick and sharp and has turned out to be protracted and very, very difficult. So I think US wants a deal, Iran wants a deal, Hezbollah wants a deal, Lebanon wants a deal. The question is, what does Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel want? And that is a little more complicated. Yes, and so it continues. Adam, thank you very much indeed. Pleasure. And that's all for today. Don't forget to email us with episode suggestions at why at sky.uk. This is Why. It's back again tomorrow.

17:53LED lights say about the future of humanity. I'm Ed Conway, and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open, and reveal the world-shaping forces hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow.