Why Trump might be about to get angry about elections

0:02Sky News, the full story first.

0:13The US midterm elections might be the beginning of the end for Donald Trump. And this is why.

0:31Hi, everyone. Neil here. And since we launched This Is Why, we've been asking you to get in touch with your ideas for future episodes. Well, ask and ye shall receive. Hi, Neil. It's Jackie from Glasgow here. I'd really like to know why the American mid-10 elections are so important. To be honest, I don't really understand how people are elected to the Senate or the House of Representatives and how each of these work together or don't work together with the presidency. So if you could explain that, that would be fabulous. I've really been loving the podcast so far, so keep up the good work. Thanks very much for that, Jackie.

1:11Well, who better to explore the intricacies of the American election system with than our US correspondent James Matthews, also co-host of the Trump 100 podcast. They are the elections for Congress, you know, Capitol Hill, that big domed building, That essentially is America's parliament. It is the co-equal branch of government, although I suppose with Donald Trump, that's all relative. It is split into two chambers, House of Representatives and the Senate. So the midterms, midway through this presidential term, Americans are going to vote for the foot soldiers who populate that building and who legislate.

1:53So just explain the differences then, the kind of the fundamental differences, because there are some big ones between the UK and the US system of government. I mean, for starters, they've got a president. Yeah, different from a UK general election. In the midterms, the president and vice president, they are not part of this. But in the UK, you have the government that gets voted in at the start of its term, prime minister and all. And it pretty much stays that way for the duration bar by-elections and a few tweaks here and there. With the midterms, the president, you know, Vance and Trump, they're not going to be part.

2:26of this is very much for the lawmakers. 435 in the House of Representatives, 100 in the Senate. That's who we are talking about. Everybody in the House and a third of the senators, numbering 33. So explain that one to me. Why on earth does the House of Representatives get entirely cleaned out where we're only having a fraction of the Senate seats up for election? Is this just one of those curiosities of US politics that no one can quite remember why. Yeah, curiosities born in the days of the founders, actually, their thinking was that if you give a senator a longer term, a six-year term, then that gives them time, experience, and breathing space away from the pressure cooker of having to be re-elected every couple of years, which is the case in the House of Representatives.

3:18So essentially, it's kind a layered legislation, a check and a balance in the Senate on the House. But essentially, given we're not talking about the presidential election, the big election in terms of US politics, why should anyone who's not in the United States give two hoots about what's going on in Congress? Because it is a check, the balance on the power of the presidency. Without it, the danger is that you have a president who can do as he pleases. And of course, arguably, that's exactly what we have right now. What the president does, clearly we all have a stake in. Look at the Iran war, for example.

3:56On Congress, there are many Democrats who are saying that's illegal. That's Donald Trump driving a coach on horses through the American Constitution. We should have a say in that because that's an act of war. So if there were more Democrats in Congress, they would have more power to rein in the Trump administration in terms of the Iran war and in terms, actually, of everything else it does. Midterms usually tend to be bad for the president's political party. I mean, why might that be? Is it just a referendum on what's going on? It is the midterm verdict of the people on a president's performance, a reflection on their view of promises delivered or not.

4:37And, of course, there's the whole business of voter turnout, out, a big thing when it comes to midterms. Of course, the party that's underrepresented in any particular Congress, their base tends to have greater traction. Historically, pretty much every presidential term, the president gets battered in the midterms, right in the middle of his term. So what is on the line then for Donald Trump? How much authority, how much power might he lose as a result of these midterm elections? A lot of power. Remember, he's a president. who not only won the presidency in 2024, he won the House and the Senate.

5:16It matters in terms of the legislation that he wants pushed through on immigration, securing the border, deregulation tax cuts, implementing these deportation efforts. And it also actually matters to him because he might be impeached. Don't take my word for it. That's what he told a gathering of Republicans a couple of months ago. He's worried about that. He said to them, listen, you better win the midterms or they, meaning the Democrats, will find a reason to impeach me, which means essentially to charge him with misconduct. Bear in mind that Donald Trump, he's been twice impeached and twice found not guilty.

5:56So those of us, like myself, who tend to think of US politics in four year presidential cycles, we are wide of the mark. If one or both houses of Congress could be flipped, this would turn the political dynamic in the United States on its head. Yes, it would dictate the direction of the Trump administration and of Donald Trump himself, although we would wait to see what he thought about that. Clearly, he's an individual who acts with an autonomy we haven't seen before, a view on presidential power that we haven't seen before. So, you know, we'll see after November how Donald Trump reacts. But certainly, he appears to be on course to have his wings clipped.

6:34The bookies have got the Democrats way out in front. And if you look at some of the key states, Michigan, California, Iowa, that's where the fine balance is. That's where we will be looking come November for key results. Texas as well, Democrats have their eye on that. A Democrat hasn't won a statewide election in Texas for 32 years, but that is looking like a tight finish. Also, Florida, Neil. Interestingly, in the past few days, we saw a state race, a race for the statehouse. It was won by a Democrat against a Trump-backed Republican candidate. So right in Donald Trump's backyard, and the view of Democrats is, if they can win it there, they can win it anywhere.

7:18You know, Democrats, over the course of the recent months, have been outperforming expectations. If Democrats do take the House, they can go on the attack. They will have the power to issue subpoenas, investigate his administration. administration. And of course, if they win the Senate, less likely, but still a possibility. That would give them the power to block cabinet appointments, Supreme Court judges, and so on. What is this election being fought on? Is it entirely about Donald Trump? Or are there other big ticket political issues that people are going to be talking about? Donald Trump certainly is an issue.

7:53The Democrats will make sure of that. They see him as the figure who can deliver votes for them. I mean, part of their problem going forward will be stand for? What case do they present to the public? But the Democrats reckon that Trump, he's their big ticket item. And that's reflected in his approval ratings, which are not good at all. They consistently show him as unpopular. A Fox News poll last week had his approval rating actually at its lowest point of his second term. Two thirds of voters say that they disapprove of his performance. But, you know, that's Donald Trump in terms of the issues, the economy, clearly that was what got him back in the White House.

8:34Affordability, prices in the shops, prices at the pumps. And of course, that is an issue right now with the Iran war. I mean, you look at the average price of petrol in this country, and it's gone up, you know, something like a dollar in recent weeks, Neil. So that is going to be big. It was Trump's big promise, I'll make life cheaper, I'll bring down the cost of living. And that's what they bought. That's what brought in the coalition, the white working classes, non-whites, the Latin Americans, those kind of communities that were not naturally Republican at all. They turned to Trump because of his economic promises.

9:11If he doesn't deliver on that, then that's problematic for the Republicans. Notwithstanding the assessment of a former president whose name currently escapes me, that it's the economy stupid when it comes to US elections. I just wondered, given events in and around the Gulf, which have resulted in the cost of living crisis in plenty of parts of the world, whether on this occasion it's the war stupid might be a better way of looking at it. I think you might be right, Neil. Yeah, the polls would indicate that, again, that MAGA base, it's standing by him on Iran. But generally, the public are switched off.

9:45And there are many Republicans switched off. high-profile members of the movement, you know, Marjorie Taylor Greene and so on, reminding the public on a constant basis that Donald Trump, one of his pledges was not to get involved in foreign wars. And yet here we are, Iran, Venezuela. I mean, who knows where Iran's going to finish? The knock-on effect on the economy, gas prices, petrol prices, which, you know, might last for several months, well into the summer and towards the November election. So there are those Republicans who see Donald Trump as having turned his back on them in terms of his promises.

10:26And of course, bubbling away in the background, you have the Epstein files issue. That is a constant throughout Donald Trump's term. Given the dumpster fire that is the US economy and the cost of living crisis that's affecting kind of the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum there. What does Donald Trump turn to and point at when he is telling his base, look, I've done a good job. You want to keep me in here. And to do that, I need the support in Congress. I think what he does is to style himself as the America first president. And you see that narrative bursting out at the odd rally. You see it and hear it from those in the Trump administration around Trump himself.

11:05Their challenge has been to focus him on where he scores with Republicans. At the start of the year, we were told, Chief of Staff Susie Weil said, look, we're going to drill down on the issues that went for us. We're going to drill down on the economy, which is working for us. The difficulty they have had, the people who manage Trump, is keeping him in a straight line. He has been distracted by, I don't know, the temptation, vanity projects. his opponents would say, of the likes of Venezuela, Iran, foreign conflicts, that, you know, peace through strength that presents him as the muscular president, restoring pride into America.

11:47There's clearly an element of the irresistible for Donald Trump about those kind of engagements, and it is distracting him from what works for him politically. I think, you know, Politics aside, when you look at the mechanics of the election, that is something. And in fact, that's going to be a key issue, Neil, come the midterms and in 2028. Donald Trump is a man who wants to tinker with the way elections are run in this country. He has called for them to be federalized, for the government to take greater control on how elections are run. Remember, this is a man who, without foundation, said the 2020 election was rigged.

12:28So we have a situation where there is fear that there will be ICE agents at the polling stations. We have an actual set of circumstances where gerrymandering is very much an issue. Trump told Republicans to redraw their electoral maps a few months ago to change the demographic in particular states, increase the number of House seats for Republicans. What happened there was that there was a Democrat response in California. they did similarly and created extra democracy. So essentially that was a dead heat. It's all going through the courts as we speak, Neil. But, you know, it's a thing. The government is seeking to tamper with the way elections are run.

13:11Something to watch. All of which suggests that if the night doesn't go the way that Donald Trump likes, we should expect legal challenges. We should expect boisterous rhetoric claiming that the election has been rigged. It feels like we could be back to where we were on January the 6th, that day that the Capitol was stormed, if things don't go the way the president hopes. Yeah, I think you're right, Neil. And listen, that's the way politics are now. They are polarised. The reporting of politics is dismissed as fake news, depending on which particular side you are on. And, you know, this narrative about a stolen election, that persists through Republican politics, through Donald Trump's whole narrative, repeated on a regular basis.

13:59And it has to be a threat to democracy, the way the president talks about elections and the way he seeks to manage them. There is something called the Save America Act, which he's trying to pass through Congress right now. That's another issue that's exercising his opponents. Essentially, this would mean that Americans have to present official ID when they register to vote, you know, a passport or a birth certificate. In this country, that would be a problem for millions of Americans. Half the adult population doesn't have a passport. Tens of millions of women have different surnames from the one that's on their birth certificate.

14:36And that would impact negatively this legislation on non-white communities, on the kind of communities that typically don't vote Republican. So you can see how those controversies could gather steam the closer we get to the polling booth. There is a degree of crisis actually surrounding American elections, the way they are operated. and I think the way they're going to be operated in the future. When you have a public that are consistently being told by the man at the top, their elections are rigged, that they can have no trust in the election system as it stands. That's a crisis in terms of elections and it has to be a danger for democracy going forward.

15:19James, thanks very much indeed. My thanks to James, to you for listening, and of course to Jackie for suggesting the US midterms in the first place. If, like Jackie, you have any burning ideas for future episodes, you can email me directly, why, at sky.uk. And who knows, very soon you too could be appearing on the podcast. We're back again soon. Till then, take care.