Why winning Makerfield might not be so easy for Andy Burnham

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0:42Winning the Makerfield by-election might not be as easy as Andy Burnham would hope. And this is why.

0:53Hi everyone, Neil here. And yeah, what a week we've just had. We've seen the PM under pressure to resign, the health secretary actually doing so and the latest development well the mayor of greater manchester andy burnham has got a friendly labour mp to stand down so that the mayor can try to become prime minister for the next few weeks politics is going to revolve around the constituency of makerfield people there don't consider themselves to be wigan primarily or manchester primarily it's a former coal mining area so in some respects the local culture smaller towns with very intense local identities that were built around pit heads or around individual industries.

1:32Once upon a time, this was the sort of seat Labour wouldn't have to try too hard to win very comfortably. But recent elections suggest reform have a real chance, even if Andy Burnham has huge popularity in this bit of the North. Look, I have a huge amount of bondness for Andy Burnham. But what I would also say is that, like, just be really, really careful of looking like entitled. So what do we know about Makerfield and what will the end result tell us about where politics is headed? Rob Ford is Professor of Political Science at the University of Manchester. Rob, thanks so much for joining us today.

2:07Look, let's start with Makerfield itself. Just describe it to me. Well, it's a really interesting seat, Neil. It's right on the edge of Greater Manchester. If you look at Greater Manchester on a map, it kind of has like a little arm that extends out westward. The westernmost bit of that little arm is Wigan Borough and McEarfield is the southern half of that. So it's in Greater Manchester, but really not like Manchester. It's in Wigan Borough, but it's really not like Wigan itself. The people there don't consider themselves to be Wigan primarily or Manchester primarily. It's a former coal mining area.

2:42so in some respects the local culture smaller towns with very intense local identities that were built around pit heads or around individual industries now that that industry is all gone but the sort of fragmented nature of the place is is rooted in that history it is not at all like for example gorton and denton where we had a by-election recently it is not a city centre seat it's a it's a city fringe seat it's kind of in that zone you know where greater manchester shades out into Merseyside, not really one, not really the other. Very powerful, prideful local industrial heritage, but hasn't necessarily incidentally shared in the prosperity that Manchester City Centre has seen under Burnham and under his predecessors before devolution.

3:27So this is a really, really interesting seat. It's a real test. It's a real test because the local elections we saw here last week, very strong for reform, possibly in part because of that fact that this is not necessarily a place that has experienced that renewal and resurgence that we do associate with what Andy Burnham has taken to calling Manchesterism. We will, of course, come on to more recent political development, but without meaning to use the shorthand, is this the sort of seat that previously you would have described as, in inverted commas, traditional Labour territory? Oh yeah, absolutely.

4:01If you go back in history in this seat, it's one of those places where, to use the old proverb, they would have been weighing the Labour vote rather than counting it. Some of the results there, 60, 70, 80 % Labour, partly reflecting, of course, the mining heritage earlier on. But even until quite recently in local council elections here, it's just very, very, very heavily Labour. This is not one of those red wall seats that went to Johnson in 2019. It stayed with Labour all the way through. It stayed with Labour in 2024. So it is a very traditional Labour seat. And you would normally think, well, this is an ideal kind of parachute seat, safe seat.

4:39But, you know, politics is changing very fast. It doesn't necessarily look as safe right now. In terms of the kind of the big political events that may well have shaped this community, I mean, what sort of impact did Brexit have? I mean, was this one of those Brexit supporting areas? This is a very heavily Leave area. Definitely one of those places that is, you know, traditionally Labour, traditionally Leave. But I think somewhere like Makerfield really underlines that that sort of regional stereotype of the red wall that we all had from about 2016 through to about 2021, you know, it masks a lot of variation.

5:14So, you know, you have other seats, including in the Northwest, that went more heavily over to the Conservatives. This wasn't one such seat, even though it is a very heavily Leave voting area, very white, very working class, very born in Britain, all of those kinds of things. probably quite old, few graduates. You're not getting many of your sort of university-educated social liberals around here or anything like that. At least until the last couple of years. Again, this would be what you would call a safe seat. But, you know, you look around the election kind of map at the moment and there aren't that many which Labour could genuinely say right now are safe.

5:52Well, absolutely, Neil. I mean, we've had two Westminster by-elections up here in the North West in the past couple of years. Roncorn and Helsby, which was 50 % Labour, one of Labour's safest seats, they lost it. Gorton and Denton, which was more than 50 % Labour, one of Labour's safest seats, they lost it. Makerfield is, on paper, a less safe seat than either of those in terms of the vote share that Labour received last time. So it is a risk. This is by no means in the bag. So if you're Andy Burnham, though, you've got to gamble. And his whole pitch is, I am the guy who can win back the kinds of voters we're losing to reform.

6:28And in that respect, this is an ideal seat because this is the kind of place where Labour have been losing a lot of support, particularly very recently, particularly under Keir Starmer, to reform. The Wigan results last week, I mean, it feels like a lot longer ago than last week, incidentally. things that are awfully fast. But last week in Wigan was a really terrible week for Labour. They got absolutely wiped out in the borough, including in all the wards that make up Makerfield constituency. All of them. Every single one. And reform were getting between 40 % and 50 % of the vote in all of those wards.

7:05But, and this is a really important but, I feel, go back two years earlier and look at the results in Wigan when the council elections were up then on the same day as Andy Burnham was on the ballot for the mayor of Greater Manchester. And Labour won all of these awards by similarly sort of stonking margins. So it is a tale of two elections. Which maker field is going to show up in a couple of months' time? Is it the maker field that showed such enthusiasm for Labour and Burnham in the mayoral elections of 2024 and the local elections held at the same time? Or is it going to be the maker field that showed up last week that is basically completely fed up and hacked off and anti the Labour government.

7:47It is going to be a real test of whether or not Andy Burnham does, his appeal around here really does completely transcend the rather bruised brand of the Labour Party. But I wonder whether or not there may be a glimmer of hope for Andy Burnham in the sense that to what extent were those results motivated by anti-Labour sentiment or were they motivated by anti-Starmer sentiment? Well, that is the question. On balance, my hunch is it's more anti-Starma than anti-Labor. When you look at the scale and speed of the reform breakthrough, it's not like this is an area that's been voting reform for a long time.

8:27It's not like it's an area that's sort of dead set against Labor for a longer period of time. So it does feel like the kind of place where perhaps what we were seeing last week, to some extent at least, was a sort of howl of protest at the disappointment that people have in the Starmer government. They thought they were electing a government that was going to deliver change for them. They don't really feel that change is happening. So they're not really very happy. And reform provides the really obvious outlet for expressing that kind of discontent. That is certainly what Andy Burnham will be hoping, of course.

8:59and ultimately it's very hard to know until we see what happens next. But we know it's not an entrenched reform vote because it's only really manifested last week. Those people have changed their minds before. Given everything you've just said there, Rob, kind of the Conservative collapse to reform that we have seen in other parts of the country, that's not going to be a big factor in and around this part of the world. That's actually a very interesting point, Neil. You've enabled me to really nerd out now. I was literally just looking through the ward-by-ward results before I came on this call because they know how to have fun on a Friday.

9:31What we're seeing is partly voters who are just sat out, coming off the fence and coming out to vote for reform, potentially protest vote for reform, but also all of the Conservative vote is gone. You know, they go from like 20 % plaster in some words to like 5 % overnight. So reform have probably hoovered up a chunk of right vote at the same time as they're picking up a chunk of anti-Starm and Labour vote potentially. So there is more than one thing going on here whereas there is practically everywhere in our fragmented politics. And you're absolutely right to pick up the Conservative vote. They look pretty much dead ducks around that part of Manchester now.

10:07OK, so enter stage left, or should that be enter stage soft left, Andy Burnham. I mean, how is he viewed in a constituency like Makerfield, given especially what you said to me originally, that this is not a place that is quite Wigan, that is quite Greater Manchester. and Andy Burnham is a man who has very firmly planted his feet in Manchester. Yeah, he is Mr Manchester, of course. That's the way he's pitched himself very much. The King of the North standing up for Manchester against the Westminster establishment. He's got a very populist narrative that he's built around himself, which has really endeared him to the people around here.

10:44First point with my sort of polling analysis hat on, if you look at approval ratings for Andy Burnham, everyone knows that they're pretty good for him nationally. net positive, which is pretty unusual for a politician in these times. But they're really, really good up here in the Northwest. One statistic that I believe Mr. Burnham likes to tout is that I think he won every single award but one in the 2024 mayor of the election across all 10 boroughs of Greater Manchester. Part of his political project has been being the mayor for everyone, broad appeal. So that's definitely going to stand him in good stead in a place like this.

11:22The other thing that may help him is his personal backstory. He is from this part of the world, not literally Makerfield, but not so far away. He represented Lee constituency for a number of years, which is just nearby. He grew up not so far from here as well. So he knows this kind of place. He knows these kinds of people. He can go around here and say, I'm one of you and I will be one of you in Westminster. I'll be one of you potentially in Downing Street. I'll be your voice around the tables of power. And that's a much more credible message coming from someone who's literally grown up here than it would be from someone who's come in from outside.

12:01It's a credible message only if you entirely believe the political journey that Andy Burnham has been on since he was, you know, an MP in Westminster. I mean, I remember covering him back when he used to work around these parts. And, you know, he was a dyed-in-the-wool blairite. That's true. I do think that part of his political history, it will be hard to use it against him I suspect in a current campaign because his time as mayor just looms so large I was reading through some focus group stuff that I think more in common is done in communities in the maker field seat and people will spontaneously bring up him standing up for Manchester him standing up for GM him doing his bit for the city now the kind of CV of policy achievements that people can spontaneously reel off isn't necessarily huge but the bus prices bus prices well buses and bus prices and that's big in many parts of manchester but let's remember not necessarily in makerfield which is a commuter place it's very high car car ownership not on the tram network most people if they're going into manchester they're getting in by car so if anything the decision that he made that's most important for him with voters around here is is not bringing in the clean air zone because this is the kind of place where car commuters would have been very hacked off about about that um so the policy side of it is a mixed bag people can point to one or two things one or two highly symbolic things andy burn has actually been very good at finding highly symbolic policies that stick in people's memory but the biggest story which has been the burnham project is people see him as one of us as sticking up for us as personifying and representing one place very effectively within a political system that many people around this part of the world feel often neglects them.

13:52And that will be very much the message that he seeks to bring to Makerfield. And I think it will be very hard to try and combat that with, oh, but, you know, in 2007, you were wandering around as a spad in Westminster. He'll just say, well, you know, we all make mistakes in our youth. I do wonder whether there might be two sides to that coin. On the one hand, obviously, you have the authenticity that really interestingly, these kind of devolved positions have given a select group of politicians. On the other side, though, Jess Phillips, his Labour colleague, herself possessed of a regional accent, warning that he needs to not look too entitled as he enters into this race.

14:28If he acts as if it's a shoo-in, it certainly won't be. You're right. And I think Burnham is well aware of that. I think he knows his patch in terms of GM And he knows Makerfield is not by any means a done deal. I think he knows he has to be humble and he has to work for every single vote in there. I think it's absolutely right that entitlement would be political kryptonite. Let's not also forget that the MP who's vacating this seat, Josh Simons, it was a classic parachute narrative. he was brought in to the seat at the very last minute after the previous MP retired imposed by the NEC he really has no connections to the area whatsoever I'm sure there were quite a lot of voters who are still fairly hacked off and resentful about that so this is a sensitive issue in general but particularly in a seat that has recent experience of a kind of political entitlement narrative so I think you're absolutely right he will need to get his head down and work very hard for every single vote.

15:33I don't know if Jess Phillips is also referring to what comes after, but I think you're also right that within Labour, once he gets to Westminster, he can't just sweep in and assume that the Crown is his. He's then going to have to work very hard for every MP's vote, potentially every member's vote. There's a long way to go in all of this. What might we ultimately learn from the Makerfield election result? I mean, look, if Labour are to stand any chance of remaining in power after the next general election. They need to win the liberal cities. They need to get back some of the reform vote. They need to appeal to the old working class communities.

16:06I mean, what is the insight that we will get from a yes or no to Andy Burnham in this particular seat? I think we will get a very strong signal about whether or not renewal in government is possible for this Labour government in the sort of white working class leave voting seats of which Makerfield is a classic example. If Andy Burnham, possibly the strongest candidate available both locally and nationally, can't win in a seat like Makerfield, which is probably more Labour loyal than many of these kinds of seats, then Labour's crisis in this part of the world really is very deep indeed. It would be very hard to see a path to renewal or redemption in this part of the world if someone like Burnham can't win somewhere like Makerfield.

16:54The other side of the coin is because it's probably a relatively easy reach, it doesn't necessarily tell us that renewal is possible everywhere, but it at least means that the necessary condition for renewal, that at least somebody, somebody popular locally, popular nationally can get a hearing from these voters and they can have their minds changed about this Labour government. It's a start, but it won't be the finish of the process. But if Burnham loses in this seat, not only is that probably the end of his political career for the time being, but it potentially signals the long-term demise of Labour in places like that.

17:27Because if Burnham can't do it here, I'm not sure what Labour figure can do it in this part of the world. See, Rob, it was at this point in our chat that I was going to ask you very directly if you thought Labour still spoke the language of places like Makerfield. But the more I think about that question. I'm not so sure what it means. Is that to do with the policies? Does Labour have the policy portfolio that is attractive to places like this? Or is there a problem that in Keir Starmer, perhaps not with Andy Burnham, you have a technocrat that is incapable of articulating those policies? I really think that one of the underestimated skills in politics, and one which we've seen through its absence being so painful for Labour under Starmer is storytelling.

18:16You have to tell voters a story about who you are and who they are and how you represent them and how you are taking them somewhere they want to go. You have to offer them a story about the past, the present, the future, where the country's going to go, where the community's going to go. And I tell you, as someone who's lived in Greater Manchester for a long time now, Andy Burnham has got a lot better at that kind of storytelling skill. He was a technocrat policy first kind of guy 20 years ago. Now he understands that the centre of all politics is telling a story. Who are we? Where are we going?

18:52I don't think Keir Starmer has ever really had that talent. Even when he was in opposition, I think people accepted that this was an element that they didn't have a lot to work with. And I think it will almost be an interesting case study in you know what you can get through narrative and story and um and uh identity-based uh biographical based uh politics as opposed to just policy agenda politics if we go from a starmer leadership to a burnham leadership because i think the style of politics would be very different under burnham and i understand that this one is is difficult to call you know it is it is going to be difficult but certainly not impossible for Andy Burnham to take the seat to get back into Westminster.

19:35If push came to shove, I think that his, I always have to go on the numbers, Neil. That's what I'm here for, right? And the numbers say Burnham should be favourite. His record in mayoral election results in this borough and this area, incredibly. So you'd have to say on balance, he must go into this favourite. It's not like he's trying to take a deep blue seat and swing it back to Labour, having gone for 10 years. This is a place that was still Labour and pretty strongly so even in 2024. So I would have to say it's advantage Burnham going into this. But the flip side of that is, do I think a reform win here is inconceivable?

20:12Absolutely not. Clearly from last week locals, we can see it. And if reform were to win here, then that really would be, in my view, one of the strongest piece of evidence yet that they really could be a party that can push Labour out of office and potentially push towards majority status themselves. This is not, by any stretch of the imagination, an easy win for them as an insurgent party, even given last week's local election results. To take out a figure of the stature of Burnham on his home turf would be a remarkable outcome. So yeah, advantage Burnham, but for reform, so much to play for as well.

20:49Rob, been a pleasure chatting to you. Thanks for your time. My pleasure. Thanks very much for being with us. Now, you will have heard Labour MP Jess Phillips giving her thoughts on Andy Burnham there. She was speaking to our sister podcast, Electoral Dysfunction. Beth Rigby and the team have plenty of analysis on the week in politics, so go find that if you want more. We're back Monday. Do have a great weekend.

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