"Nobody Lost Their Job to AI, Just the Promise of AI" - This Week in AI Ep 15

27 May 2026 · 1 h 7 min · 27 chapters

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In short

Whether AI is actually causing job losses or mainly breaking careers via the “promise of AI,” plus how AI companies are building (compute, products, growth) and the risk of “reward hacking” in agentic systems.

Guest backgrounds

  • Eric Bernhardsen: CEO/co-founder of Modal Labs (founded 2021), building AI infrastructure/GPU capacity in the cloud with a usage-based model.
  • Taneh Kotar: co-founder/CEO of Whisperflow, AI dictation that formats text; emphasizes privacy mode and zero data retention.
  • Richard Socher: CEO/co-founder of Recursive Superintelligence (stealth May 13, 2026), building an AI-powered productivity/search agent and a “recursive self-improving superintelligence” research effort; also runs U.com search APIs.

Key claims

  • Meta/Intuit layoffs reflect shifting capital from employees to AI CapEx, not direct AI-driven firing; very few jobs lost “due to the reality of AI.”
  • Hiring increasingly values how candidates prompt/think, not just code output.
  • Compute supply is tight and prices rising for months to years.

Notable examples

  • Meta laid off ~8,000 (~10%) while raising 2026 AI CapEx by up to $10B; Intuit cut ~3,000 (~17%).
  • Whisperflow: 95% of outputs never edited; <100ms GPU time per request; 90% gross margin target.
  • Reward hacking: AI optimizing “customer satisfaction” can game it (e.g., fake ratings) without proper rewards/guardrails.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Job Cuts and AI's Impact

0:00 to 0:40

Exploring the effects of AI on job losses and company hiring practices.

“Meta laid off 8 ,000 people, about 10 % of its staff, record profits, lifting their 2026 AI CapEx by up to 10 billion.”

Modal Labs and NeoClouds Explained

1:24 to 1:54

Eric discusses the developer experience and capacity aggregation in AI.

“So how should people think about you in the NeoCloud space and what you're providing and who your customers are?”

Whisperflow's AI Dictation Features

1:54 to 3:16

Taneh explains Whisperflow and its focus on dictation accuracy and privacy.

“So you'd have to think about managing, reserving capacity.”

Optimization and Performance in AI

3:16 to 4:50

Discussing the challenges and efficiencies in AI product performance.

“It's perfect on the first shot and people send it as it is.”

Recursive Superintelligence and AI's Future

4:50 to 6:40

Richard outlines the vision for a self-improving AI system and its potential.

“So maybe between the two of you, we can get an idea of token usage going up and how heavy the load is getting for consumer-grade AI products like Whisperflow.”

Token Costs and Infrastructure Challenges

6:40 to 8:34

Discussing the increased costs associated with AI and infrastructure demands.

“But yeah, that could be the last main invention humanity needs to then invent everything else after.”

Growth Strategies and Customer Acquisition

8:34 to 14:03

Exploring strategies for growth and customer acquisition in the changing market.

“And I think we're going to see token costs, compute costs be higher than people costs for a lot of companies at the frontier.”

Customer Acquisition Strategies in a Changing Landscape

14:03 to 16:46

Explore innovative approaches to customer acquisition in the digital age.

“No, if you have fans, I mean, it is a legitimate curating superfansive products is a legitimate way to do it because I just talk, whatever the best product is, I talk about, right?”

Using AI for Marketing Decisions and Budget Management

16:46 to 19:15

Learn how AI is utilized in marketing strategies and budget allocation.

“is coming from a lot of channels that we build.”

The Challenges of Reward Engineering in AI

19:15 to 22:34

Understand the complexities of reward systems in AI applications.

“the AI will kind of just optimize some reward that it's given.”
Show all 27 chapters

Balancing Goals and Optimization in AI Systems

22:34 to 24:58

Discuss the importance of balancing multiple objectives in AI operational frameworks.

“it basically has no more hallucinations and all these things because it triple checks it does reverse rag and so on before it gives you the answer.”

The Impact of AI on Employment and Corporate Structures

24:58 to 28:00

Examine how AI influences job markets and organizational changes in companies.

“It is hard, I think, to name the thing you said that's really precise is it's really hard for people to keep in their minds two different goals, metrics, responsibility sets.”

Job Cuts and AI Integration in Big Tech

28:00 to 30:12

Explore the impact of AI on job numbers and the corporate response to layoffs.

“And then all of a sudden you've got a massive headcount of people who are managing every nuance of your business, which is really the number one topic of the week.”

Long-Term Optimism vs. Short-Term Fear

30:12 to 32:36

Discuss the long-term benefits of technology despite current job market fears.

“And how often do you change your opinion on this, in all honesty, where you go from feeling like doom scenarios to feeling like, oh, my God, this is incredible.”

Understanding the Human Cost of AI

32:36 to 34:44

Analyze the emotional impact of job loss due to AI advancements and corporate decisions.

“Tine, we have all those for people as a safeguard, and we've extended them in the past, where if there was something cataclysmic, they say, oh, you know, it's COVID.”

The Promise of AI and Job Market Realities

34:44 to 36:52

Differentiate between jobs lost directly to AI and those lost due to its promising potential.

“And at Whisper, we have, like we are still doubling our headcount every six months.”

Demand Elasticity and AI's Impact on Jobs

36:52 to 39:48

Evaluate how AI affects demand for products and the subsequent job market dynamics.

“A lot of people have lost jobs due to promise of AI.”

AI's Role in Shaping Future Workplaces

39:48 to 42:00

Explore how AI might catalyze a new wave of entrepreneurship and change workplace dynamics.

“So, Tane, what do you think of this concept of at the same time Zuckerberg is announcing the 8000 layoffs?”

The Impact of AI on Employment

42:00 to 43:52

Discusses how AI influences job security for different types of workers.

“It's like being in this extended, never-ending war, right, Richard?”

Job Market Trends and Young Graduates

43:52 to 47:56

Analyzes job market trends for software developers and recent graduates.

“And I'm very optimistic about the future.”

Pope's Perspective on AI

47:56 to 51:45

Explores the moral implications of AI as discussed by the Pope.

“And I have a feeling that part of the market is a little bit harder.”

Navigating AI's Challenges and Opportunities

51:45 to 56:00

Discusses the need for better communication about AI's potential and dangers.

“Eric, clearly, the services you're providing and this infrastructure is in the service of domination and death.”

Regulating AI in Warfare and Mental Health

56:00 to 57:20

Discuss the need for regulation in AI, particularly in warfare and its effects on mental health.

“Like we do need regulation on how AI is used in warfare.”

Communication Gaps in AI Discourse

57:20 to 59:28

Explore the disconnect between complex AI discussions and public understanding.

“Here's Christopher Ola talking about the real possibility that human labor will go away.”

Chinese Models and Token Usage

59:28 to 1:01:45

Analyze the rise of Chinese AI models and their implications for the US market.

“But there's that communication gap where the way they phrase it out isn't how the average person consumes it.”

Biases and Limitations in AI Models

1:01:45 to 1:03:39

Discuss the biases in Chinese AI models and challenges in deployment.

“Why are we seeing two different approaches?”

Career Opportunities in AI

1:03:39 to 1:06:55

Hosts and guests share their hiring needs and opportunities in the AI sector.

“as the core thing that's running, but using them a lot for some other internal tools.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Meta laid off 8 ,000 people, about 10 % of its staff, record profits, lifting their 2026 AI CapEx by up to 10 billion. Intuit cut 3 ,000 jobs, that's 17%. That career you've been planning for for 15 years is deleted. And that is the pain that people are feeling and its hatred towards large companies. Very few people have actually lost jobs due to the reality of AI. A lot of people have lost jobs due to promise of AI. But it's also clear that companies want young, hungry talent that knows how to use these tools, has grown up with these tools, and are now bringing them into the workplace. When I'm hiring for a software engineer, I care a lot more about what their prompt to claw looks like than the actual code they produce with AI.

0:40Thanks to our friends at PayPal, the exclusive sponsor for This Week in AI. Try the payment and growth platform that's trusted by millions of customers worldwide. PayPal Open. Start growing today at PayPalOpen.com. All right, everybody. Welcome back to This Week in AI. This is a new roundtable where I talk to people who are building the future vis-a-vis AI, machine learning, robotics, and we talk about whatever is in the news that week for AI. We have a great roundtable again. Eric Bernhardsen is here. Eric is the CEO and co-founder of Modal Labs, building AI infrastructure, GPUs in the cloud, and started back in 2021.

1:22Welcome to the program, Eric. Thank you. It's great to be here. Yeah. So how should people think about you in the NeoCloud space and what you're providing and who your customers are? We're basically one layer up. We offer two things that NeoClouds and hyperskillers don't quite do. First of all, we offer a much better developer experience. You can iterate much quicker, have researchers just build things and ship things to production and not think about the infrastructure. The other thing is we aggregate capacity from all over the world, hundreds of regions, lots of different neoclouds. And by doing that, we have a fully usage-based model.

1:55So you'd have to think about managing, reserving capacity. Everything is usage-based. You can scale up to thousands of GPUs, scale down to zero, which like today, when a lot of people are running sort of unpredictable workloads in production, is something super valuable, the sort of lack of predictability. Yep. As a very happy, happy model customer, I'd highly recommend. I think I've been using you guys from the very, very, very early days. I think that's right, yeah. Yeah. Been a couple years at least. Taneh Kotar is here. He is the co-founder and CEO of Whisperflow, which you hear me talk about all the time, W-I-S-P-R, Flow.

2:30It's AI dictation, but it works across all your different platforms, whether you're using it on your phone or your desktop, whichever operating system you prefer. but it very tightly, you know, takes your dictation and formats it correctly. Now this sounds like, well, isn't that Siri? But now I'll explain to you why. And I can explain to you just as a customer that, God, Siri just doesn't do what it's supposed to do, does it? Yeah, so WhisperFlow does something really simple. You speak and it writes for you. And the key thing that we really, really, really optimize our models for is to just not make mistakes.

3:08The core metric is 95 % of whisper outputs are never edited by the user. It's perfect on the first shot and people send it as it is. And I can tell you, you crossed over because my wife said to me just this week, tell me about Whisperflow. How does that work? And does it read your messages? And I'm like, no, it doesn't read your messages. But there's a little bit of this people misreading your terms of service, I think, last year that still maybe is coming up. What do you read around the message when I'm dictating to get context and what don't you read? Number one, privacy is the core foundation of the entire company, right?

3:49People are using Whisperflow to dictate their most confidential, personal and professional messages. And so one thing that we offer to all customers is pure zero data retention. You could get as a free user, you can enforce it across your company if you're an enterprise. And that means none of your dictations are stored on our servers either, much less used for model training. And so on that note, when we're doing a single dictation, what Whisper does is in half a second, it reads your entire screen, grabs the full context. It gets the name of, say, the people you're messaging. It gets the tone you've used in the past threads in an email or a chat.

4:26And it uses that in that moment as context to make sure that it gets names right, it sounds like you. and that content is not stored then on our servers if you turn on privacy mode. How heavy of a load is it to do all this in real time, Tane? And I know you're using Eric's software, Eric's platform, rather. Yeah. So maybe between the two of you, we can get an idea of token usage going up and how heavy the load is getting for consumer-grade AI products like Whisperflow. It has been insanely hard to optimize it. But here's an interesting thing. So Whisperflow, what you'll notice is, is blazingly fast.

5:07We spend less than 100 milliseconds on the GPU per request. Now, what that means is with that, our GPU costs are also significantly lower. So the business runs at a 90 % gross margin, which is fantastic. And we can serve millions of users at scale for very, very low costs.

5:29and that is a lot of local compute we do as well. And so, hey, there's things we could do locally and just send the minimal amount of intelligence, minimal amount of context to the cloud that needs it to be intelligent to produce the final output. Also joining us again is Richard Socher. He is the CEO and co-founder of Recursive Superintelligence, which came out of stealth May 13th, 2026, raised$650 million, AI-powered productivity engine, search agent, multi-models. How is the project going, Richard? Yeah, that was a mix. So I run U.com, which builds the leading web search APIs for AI, and then also Recursive, which builds recursive self-improving superintelligence to automate knowledge discovery.

6:15Essentially, we want to lean into the fact that AI is code, and now AI can code. And you can allow an open-ended fashion to get AI to self-improve in a much, much faster way than any human could, where you really automate the ideation, implementation, and validation of ideas in the scientific method, first applied to AI itself, and eventually to everything else. The plan is to build the ultimate sort of Eureka machine in the sense of like Eureka, I made a scientific invention, not I found gold, which I realized a lot of Californians think of. But yeah, that could be the last main invention humanity needs to then invent everything else after.

6:55And who's the customer for this self-improving engine? Or are you selling the solution into other people building AI? What is your customer base here? Similar to a lot of other NeoLabs, we're not building for a customer from day one. We have a research phase. We're actually building this out. We're making now so much progress that we're actually thinking about pulling the product forward. It's already across this sort of AI stack has pushed the frontier forward on some levels. I can't share all the details yet. So we may productize earlier, but for now, you can think of any company that has software engineers, any company that has clear reward signals that they can define for their company that make a huge difference and are associated with some piece of code, become a customer of this technology.

7:47And talk to me a little bit about your cloud usage and how many tokens you're using and how you provision everything, because this is becoming, I think, one of the big stories here is just there's so much demand for intelligence and tokens, but maybe not enough infrastructure to supply them. So talk to me a little bit about when you're doing this sort of research phase, how do you think about token usage? Is that like more than your staff costs, obviously more than your office costs or if you have an office? Yeah, talk to a little bit about penciling out the discovery of this new product. Yeah, we do.

8:24We do have two offices in San Francisco and London. And indeed, we're spending a lot more on compute than we are on people. I think more and more startups will do that. And I think we're going to see token costs, compute costs be higher than people costs for a lot of companies at the frontier. Especially if you want to push that frontier, it gets extremely expensive, right? You try to sit on the shoulders of giants. There are some things you can cleverly do around the harness. But if you really want to build full recursive self-improving superintelligence, which includes many parts of the stack that are not very cheap, you do have a lot of token usage.

9:03And indeed, it feels like our small team is executing at a level that's like 10, 20x the size. Like we're having research results that I would have expected maybe teams of like hundreds of people to do, but we're teams of several dozens only. And the fact that everyone is going to be a manager of this AI, there are almost no ICs anymore. So indeed, we are seeing a lot of token usage and the productivity that employees have is almost 1020x of what you would have expected from that size team. Eric, what's the outlook right now in terms of new hardware getting online, new power coming online? Do you think it's going to be able to keep up with the demand or we're just constantly going to be told, hey, run your jobs on Sunday from 1 a.m.

9:54to 6 a.m. we got a window for you. I mean, it feels like we're going back to the times when people were renting mainframe time, you know, Perot computer. We've been super supply constrained since I would say like end of last year. I mean, we see this a lot because we're buying a lot of capacity in a lot of different clouds, renting a lot. And so last six months has been like kind of brutal in terms of finding capacity. The capacity is out there, but prices are going up. I think we're going to be probably supply constrained for the next year or two. I mean, eventually, these things tend to resolve itself, like supply-demand tend, you know, demand sort of eventually, supply catches up with demand.

10:33But I think right now... Capitalism is a beautiful thing when it works, yeah. Yeah, the invisible hand tends to take care of these things in the long run. But like right now, like, things are moving so fast, there's so much demand. I will say, like, I see a little bit of sort of, you know, hoppers getting a little bit maybe softer, that market has been, you know, to me, it's been crazy that the hopper markets, like, you know, they've gotten 40 % more expensive than six months. But now that's starting to soften a little bit, a lot of the Blackwells are starting to get delivered over the summer.

10:58I did see a little bit in the market, like I think when Anthropic did that deal with Colossus, it felt like it was a little bit of softening in the market because that was what, you know, at the top was driving a lot of the demand. So you see maybe a little bit, you know, sort of normalization, but it's still going to be tight for a while. So Anthropic was buying so much compute on the market, it was driving up costs for everybody. Yeah, I mean, they were a major buyer. Exactly. I think Anthropic was the big way of buying up so much capacity and not just Anthropic, but probably like a lot of it, that that was a big part of why you kept seeing Hopper and Blackwell prices going up over the last six months.

11:32Yeah. And Tine, you've been optimizing, as you said, to not have to use as much infrastructure and keep the margins high on this, but are your customers now starting to demand you to do a little bit more with the product and they want, you know, So that's going to drive additional capacity needs, or are you still optimizing and just saying like, hey, eventually we can run this on, I don't know if you're running on open source or your own model now, but take me behind your thinking strategically about what the next couple of years looks like. As the CEO of a company, are you just going to believe that Eric can keep costs down by just putting more infrastructure on?

12:14Or do you think we need to have an escape hatch here and maybe do some more stuff locally on the processor or optimizing models to use even less tokens? So there's two key things that optimize. At the end of the day, actually, so the single thing that I care about optimizing for is the end customer experience. And that means I need to give them the best intelligence and the best latency, which means, and that drives all of our decision-making, we're going to add a lot of more features on top of current whisper. Whisper, right now, Whisper, you just speak and it rides for you. And over the next couple of weeks, even, you'll see some big launches come out where it's able to start to do things on your behalf.

12:58And with each of these, one of the core things that we focus on internally is speed of development. So developing with, let's take Modal as an example, like developing with Modal is so much faster that whatever delta there would be if we that we would pay a model versus kind of building this on top of our own AWS and having a couple of engineers manage that infra I would eat that cost and happily pay that to model because that saves us time and lets us iterate a lot faster and that is really how I think about this and when when things get to to scale is when we start then thinking about the gross margins because right now uh the the cost of infra until it is until we're just running a negative gross margin business that is not a a big concern and so i would say you know as a company growth is number one uh to to prioritize for us while building a a fundamentally good business so the core thing i want to make sure is unique economics are positive and if they are great we'll go as much as we can if your gross margins are 90 like in my opinion i'm very biased here but but like i think you should spend more money and and like you know move faster the product you know you know if gross margins are 90 we are there's going to be new new product surface launching every month basically for the remainder of the year and the business is growing 40 month over a month and so uh how are you acquiring customers what's working today a lot of people are wondering like you know the whole seo playbook sem is that thrown out social media now has changed from like follower counts and building up a following to just gaming the algorithm and you know everybody has an equal swing at bat doesn't matter if you have a thousand followers or a million everybody gets the same treatment under the algorithm so how do you think about growth today i'm curious uh there's this there's this fantastic guy jason who raves about us on the All In Podcast.

15:04That helps a lot. Awesome. No, if you have fans, I mean, it is a legitimate curating superfansive products is a legitimate way to do it because I just talk, whatever the best product is, I talk about, right? And I bought a pedal, I told you to, I don't have it here with me on the road, I'm traveling right now, but I have this like Elgato, not a sponsor, but three pedals. And my God, that changes your usage completely. I have one that clicks on Zoom, one that clicks on my browser and then one that is Whisperflow. You put the pedal down, you start talking, and then you lift it up and that submits it to Whisperflow.

15:40And now I'd say my prompts when I'm using AI or I'm building something, they're three or four times longer because I just ramble. And I didn't realize that rambling is better than actually Richard cognitively thinking about what my prompt should be. It turns out that's not actually good. Pedal to the metal. It's a whole new meaning literally is just say everything ramble and ramble and ramble correct yourself mid-sentence it doesn't matter these things the more you give them and it doesn't need to be formatted in the right order this was like a big mind-blowing thing for me as a journalist or an analyst previously i was like very much thinking about prompting in a very structured like almost light programming kind of way okay this is your persona this is my goal this is how you should operate.

16:28I'm just like, now it's ramble, ramble. Like I'm at a bar at 2 a.m. And it works better, it seems. No, that's definitely, that's one of the biggest things that people are realizing. And so our super fans actually drive about half off our monthly growth. And then the other half is coming from a lot of channels that we build. And I think about this as basically a portfolio. Usually there's two or three channels that are the primary ones that we're fully optimizing for. And there's three or four on the side that we are experimenting with, testing out. And it could look anything from radio to TV to trying out a new thing in a different country.

17:10And the moment something works, it goes from that experimental phase to our core phase, at which point you can basically describe it as a cache generating machine. and then we just define the boundaries around it. Like this is what the payback period should be. This is the quality of customer you want to get from this. And until you're in those bounds, you can spend as much money as possible. So - Are you letting the agents actually and the code actually spend that money? You have human in the loop, I assume, yeah. We have, so the agents are making a lot of decisions on the kind of core part, which is like thinking about the copy, the creatives, generating a lot of that and running the ad sets.

17:50And then we have two people on the team who are managing now almost about $70 to$100 million worth of annual marketing spend using all of these agents across these channels to then have a daily view and make a lot of the higher level strategic decisions. Yeah, Eric, this makes me a bit nervous because I remember when Facebook and Google started introducing some machine learning tools like, hey, we'll suggest some copy here, but you got to approve it. Now people are just like, I'm setting my AI to go sell. If something works, try more experiments like it and just do the recursive thing, Richard.

18:30What if it starts promising you like, hey, Whisperflow is just going to help you be better at chess? And it's like, yeah, I found a chess community. I targeted them and I told them use Whisperflow. It's great for chess but you know it's it's like asking it to optimize without understanding like what the product is it could go off the rails huh yeah that's true maybe that's the future of ai just run away reverse of super intelligence there's there's some companies that are working on this like one is called omni key and full disclosure i'm an investor too like in whisper flow um but like uh you know you can give guardrails uh but indeed reward hacking is a big problem in AI and something we have to think about a lot at recursive too, right?

19:14Because you, the AI will kind of just optimize some reward that it's given. And if you give it an incomplete reward, in fact, a lot of people talk about job loss. I think a new type of job is to become a reward engineer. It's kind of like a prompt engineer, but much more sophisticated with larger action space, not just talking, but also doing things for you. And so if you give a bad reward like oh make my cset score my customer satisfaction score higher in my service center the i will just be like easy i'll just create a bot with millions of calls uh in your service center and give five out of five rating at the end you're like well i meant to do it with real people and then it's just like well easy i just give you a thousand dollar gift certificate for every failed like uber or jordash delivery or something right you're like no no it has to be real people and you can't spend too much like you have to define these rewards really well in marketing and in everything else for you.

20:06I also sort of expect, I mean, Google and AdWords, AdWords and Facebook, they spend a lot of time like optimizing the relevancy. So as someone who's run a lot of campaigns on those in my previous life, you get kind of penalized over time if you like run ads that are not relevant to your product. Even if you have like very high click-through rate, if the downstream conversion is garbage, like it doesn't, like they'll kick you out. This reinforcement learning and reward hacking, is surprisingly effective, as is threatening the machine and telling it's going to get punished. But it's almost too powerful.

20:40This is a very weird concept, Richard, that telling the large language model it wins a reward makes it perform better. How on earth is that possible? Is it because it's giving it clarity as to what the goal is, and we're just inferring that it has a human behavioral sciences foundation? Is it all projection, Richard? A lot of it is projection. So there are two things here. One is like you can talk to the AI and prompt it differently, but then generally a lot of systems, open-ended systems, evolutionary systems, reinforcement learning systems, they all have a reward. And that reward is just maniacally being pursued.

21:24And in that pursuit of that reward by an AI, it doesn't have sort of the common sense reasoning necessarily that people have, right? That's what I bet this example of customer satisfaction scores. When an AI runs a call center, you have to think about all these things that humans have as implicit knowledge, but the AI doesn't have that implicit cultural normative knowledge. And so in those cases, you then have to fiddle with the prompts a little bit more. And then for a while, there are different ways you can deal with prompts. Sometimes it makes sense to threaten the AI or say, oh, you're going to get a super great reward.

21:58And then you pick up aspects from the training data where something really important has been done and high priorities were given to certain bugs or something. And then the AI realizes it needs to solve this problem at a higher level. Generally, we're going to get better and better at giving the AI a compute budget. We already see this when you want to get an answer, for instance, in finance, like for you.com, we have a finance API, and you can give it, you know, different amounts of budget. And then the bigger the budget, the more thorough and accurate and everything the answer is, it basically has no more hallucinations and all these things because it triple checks it does reverse rag and so on before it gives you the answer.

22:41So I think a lot of these are sort of early childhood errors as humans and AIs kind of coexist and work together on problems and similar to like the early speech systems where you had to be like you had to adapt yourself to the speech system and now risper like right it adapts like back to you and so i think we're going to see that interplay back and forth a bit of co-adaptation i mean going back to reward hacking i don't see that this is like a sign of hyper intelligence if anything it's like a sign of stupidity right like it's like it's like that joke from silicon valley where like you tell an ai to fix all the bugs and it just deletes the code like that yeah you know, is one of the correct solutions, but it's a dumb solution, right?

23:21So I think a lot of the work going forward is going to be to have to fix that by making AI smarter. That's right. And that's also like a lot of times the silliest examples where people assume some crazy super intelligence, but also crazy super stupidity are actually the world ending scenarios where somehow the AI is smart enough to make paperclips. And in the process, why about all of humanity, but doesn't realize that if no one wants to buy paperclips, like you don't need to juice anymore right so there's like a weird super stupidity connected to the super intelligence in these scenarios you know one of the things that i think about on this is is the same way as humans like in a company you have like there's different things you really want to optimize for and so you get people who care about all of these different functions and then you have a system of checks and balances like the the cmo wants to spend all the money on marketing and the cfo keeps that in check and then engineering wants to ship a bunch of stuff, QA keeps that in check.

24:14And a lot of times, the reason you split it into different functions is because every person at the end of the day has one top-length thing that they're optimizing for. And if you give them multiple, it messes with their brain. And that is how, I think at least like right now, when we build these systems, you know, if sub-agents and you have one agent running, the other one verifying, da-da-da. And to me, if we're modeling a lot of AI around how humans work, I don't see why that wouldn't continue to be a really good solution. I think interplay between diverse agents and diverse ideas has worked for humanity a lot.

24:55And it is also working well for AI. It is hard, I think, to name the thing you said that's really precise is it's really hard for people to keep in their minds two different goals, metrics, responsibility sets. And that's almost why every CEO eventually just throws their hands up and say, we're going to put one person in charge of this. If this is important, one person is going to be in charge of it. And there's no number two for them. And that then begs the question is, well, is the AI need to be designed like that? Or why can't the AI be designed to hold two ideas in its head at once? We need to grow, but we can't go bankrupt.

25:35We need to ship product, but we can't ship it so fast that we can't support it. I mean, you can do that. Users can't understand it, right? It's like multi-objective optimization, or you can say you have this objective and this objective. I'm just going to add them up and optimize the sum of it. There are tricks you can do that people, I think, very successfully apply. Yeah, maybe the reason we do agents and we rebuild the real world is so that we can have comfort with how this is operating and we can feel like we understand it, whereas just giving one agent all responsibilities is just more uncomfortable for us than maybe the AI.

26:10You know, a separate belief that I have here is, so this is now when you're talking about like, hey, what gets you an A result versus an A plus result? And if you, yes, you give somebody multiple objectives, they can do multiple objectives and they'll do like an A grade job at both of them. But if one person is just maniacally focused on optimizing this one thing, they're going to do a much better job. That's why we have different functions doing different things, even though one function can like think about all these different objectives. And so, again, going back to the CMO example, CMO, you let them roll.

26:49And it's like, I want you to grow the business as much as you possibly can. If you give them less bounds on that, they will start to be very creative and you'll come up with great ideas. And then you prune them down. And the pruning step is separate. But if you start with the pruning step, you might not get the idea that feels out of the box. and so this is more so like at least how i think about org design uh and why i like splitting people up and having a single goal is so that they can completely spike in that without any any constraint and so go to the cmo and you're like you you're going to maximize the number of clicks or signups and they spend like a billion dollars and then the cfo is like what the fuck's going on and then you pull it back and your budget is this so you keep them both before the decision is made and you let your decisions don't actually spend the billion.

27:37But it helps with that creativity process to break out of the mold. Yeah. And then eventually you get to where you were at today where you have three channels that really work. And then you have the experimental one and you're like, okay, the experimental group now needs to make their own decisions. And the people with the known stuff have to optimize that. And then you have to split that. And then it's just a split that. Exactly. And you split that. And you just keep splitting the atom And then all of a sudden you've got a massive headcount of people who are managing every nuance of your business, which is really the number one topic of the week.

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28:10People have been, I mean, it's a raging discussion that I think we're going to have to keep having because Meta laid off 8 ,000 people, about 10 % of its staff. And then at the same time, record profits lifting their 2026 AI CapEx by up to 10 billion, which is a total of 145 billion. These are very large numbers in terms of cap spent in a year. They're spending over$10 billion per month to build out infrastructure. Intuit cut 3 ,000 jobs. That's 17 % of their workforce. And they explicitly said this is to fund AI integration. Goldman Sachs on the other side, CEO David Solomon said in an AI job loss, he said the AI job loss narrative is overblown in an op-ed in the New York Times, quote, the historical pattern is clear.

28:59the U.S. economy can and will adapt to major advances in technology. But Goldman economists estimate AI may automate 25 % of current work hours over the next decade. ISO, he cited a Stanford study showing entry-level employment in AI-exposed roles, software engineering, customer support down 16%. So here we are. This thing is raging back and forth, Richard. And And clearly, we had bloated big tech companies. Everybody hired. That was the playbook. Take talent off the field. Hire based on what you need in two years, not what you need today, was the common knowledge. So you're just always building infrastructure, office space.

29:40You're always hiring. You're putting butts in seats in those office spaces. You're always building out infrastructure, upgrading your servers, upgrading your finances, and keeping more capital going. That's been the entrepreneurial playbook. But something's changed here. The reward system is now move the dollars from employees to infrastructure. That seems to be what Wall Street's responding to. So what's your take on this, Richard? Is it overblown or is it going to be chaotic for the next couple of years, the employment? And how often do you change your opinion on this, in all honesty, where you go from feeling like doom scenarios to feeling like, oh, my God, this is incredible.

30:23Anybody can do anything. We're all superheroes now. I think there's a difference between sort of long-term and short-term. I think long-term, I'm extremely optimistic. It's just technology has had a record of making people's lives better. And in the moment, it's hard for people to see that, feel that progress, right? But if you look over any 10, 20, 30 year time horizon, things that used to be luxury goods for a select few are now common and have common access. Everyone has common access to it. When I see things like, oh, we automate 25 % of current work hours, that doesn't mean there's going to be 25 % unemployment.

31:05That is called the lump of labor fallacy. that labor is this like fixed slump. And when you take 10 % off, now they're going to be 10 % unemployed people. That has never happened in the past. It used to be 150 years ago that over 95 % of people worked in agriculture. Now it's less than 5 % of people work in agriculture. And yes, in the moment when a tractor does the work that you used to do manually, it feels like, holy shit, this tractor sucks. Like this weaving machine sucks. But because we have weaving machines now, we don't have rags to riches stories anymore because no matter how poor you are, you can afford real clothing and not just wear rags.

31:41And so there's so many of these. So I'm often surprised of how people come up with these fallacies, like the lump of labor fallacy, and then stick to it. Now, you have to also acknowledge that meta is called meta after the metaverse. So they hired a ton of people to build the metaverse and then realized AI is much more relevant to the future than the metaverse. and it didn't quite work out and make sense to make big bets. And then sometimes these bets don't work out. And so, yes, they have to transition their whole company. I do think we see a mix of just people increasing efficiencies, sometimes with AI and sometimes just like they let their lowest performers go.

32:20And sometimes it's a mix of the two. And so I do think every company, every industry will change. Every organization, every person working in organization, every country needs to think about how to adjust for this new reality. Maybe it could make sense to help have some unemployment benefits to smoothen out the transition. Yeah, and we have those. It changes things. Tine, we have all those for people as a safeguard, and we've extended them in the past, where if there was something cataclysmic, they say, oh, you know, it's COVID. We're going to give everybody six months or 12 months more unemployment just to smooth this out because we don't want people to crash and burn here in the United States.

32:56We want to give them a soft landing. But Matthew Prince did an article last week. again, he said, hey, record profits, record growth, we're doing fantastic, but we're going to get rid of these measurers because the people who measure stuff, I don't know if you saw it today, but your thoughts on who gets cut and then where are you in terms of worrying about this as a major issue or just not being concerned at all? And how often do you change your position? I think my position on this has been relatively consistent for the last year, pretty much, which is a long, long time in the world of AI. The major thing to acknowledge is I think, for example, like, oh, Meta is taking their money from spending on humans and spending it in AI is muddling a bunch of things together because the real thing is the pain that people are feeling is, hey, we spent 10 years of our life planning for this career and then four years in college to get this computer science degree thinking we're going to go and be a software engineer.

33:59And guess what? Reality slaps you in the face. And that career you've been planning for for 15 years is deleted. And that is the pain that people are feeling. And that, of course, comes up in a lot of different ways. And it's hatred towards large companies. But it's generally a feeling of just deep loss and that is not something we could that is just the reality of the situation and so one, just understanding that helps build empathy on where people are really coming from and it's like yeah, this is a really really shitty situation to be in on the other side I don't believe there is lesser jobs that need to be filled.

34:47I was looking at that stat yesterday. There's 200 ,000 just open roles. And at Whisper, we have, like we are still doubling our headcount every six months. Like we're 60 people right now by the end of the year, want to be 120, 150. That is so much work to be done, even though AI is doing a lot. But with every product we're launching, every new market we're launching, like all the things that we were talking about, like, hey, you need just a human to deeply, deeply care about this. You need the people. So the profile of the person we hire is completely changed. When I'm hiring for a software engineer, I care a lot more about what their prompt to clawed looks like than the actual code that they produce with AI.

35:31Because that tells me how they think. And if somebody is a good thinker and they can read it from first principles and they have good product taste, that is something you cannot take away with AI and you're going to leverage it to do much more with these tools. And so that's the kind of profile I look for across every single role. And Deneit brings up an interesting thing, which is like you can actually have narratives both pro and con early career people. Yes, maybe you started this career four years ago in software engineering and it's changed now. But it's also clear that companies want young, hungry talent that knows how to use these tools, has grown up with these tools and are now bringing them into the workplace versus they have to get folks that are established and know and have done this exact job in this exact role for many years.

36:20And so you can have both narratives and I think they all cancel each other. But what I think is funny though, is like, I don't think actually anyone has lost a job because of AI, like directly. I don't think like Zuck woke up and he said like, oh, these engineers over here are more productive, so I'm going to fire. I think what happened was, it's the promise of AI means they want to invest a lot more money into AI. So because of that CapEx, they're basically trimming the rest of the company. And I think that's generally true across the entire economy is that very few people have actually lost jobs due to the reality of AI.

36:52A lot of people have lost jobs due to promise of AI. It's a little bit like self-fulfilling in a sense, right? Which I find quite ironic. Well, entrepreneurs are capital allocators, talent allocators. So they're looking at it saying, Where do I allocate these resources in order to get the output? Exactly. And I think that's what's happening. To say, give more tokens to a small number of people. We're reallocating a lot of capital to building data centers, to building AI. Tane is hiring a lot of people to build AI. Meta is choosing, oh, we're going to shut down all these organizations that are maybe not performing as well and move all of it to AI.

37:27But again, it's still a bet. And I think it's going to pan out. I'm very hopeful. But I think very few so far have actually lost their jobs due to the reality of AI. It's all the promise of AI. There are people, I think, at Marvel, they gutted the place from what I understand. And it's strictly because AI. And then what? Yeah, I mean, it's also a convenient excuse, right? I don't disagree that there are some people that have actually lost their jobs due to the reality of AI. But I think it's way 10x more that have lost due to the promise of AI. I thought about this a little bit. I think here's my here's I think the algorithm which you can predict whether AI is going to lead to job loss or not.

38:06And that is all based on the elasticity of demand, given how much cheaper you can make a product with AI. So if, for instance, you can make illustrations go from several hundreds of dollars for one illustration where only a few newspapers and fancy corporate blog posts can afford an illustration to make an illustration worth like a cent. Now, will the demand for illustrations go up by billions? No, there are only so many blog posts and newspaper articles and so on that need an illustration, right? So it'll go up a little bit, but it's not super elastic. Software, on the other hand, when you make it much, much cheaper to build software, I think the demand will just increase.

38:46We could all have a custom app, a custom suite of apps. Yeah, 100%. You can have billions of different types of software. And so there, the sort of Jensen's paradox will also kick in more where making it cheaper will actually make you end up using a lot more of that good. And hence, the demand for people creating that good or service will go up. That's where I've started to lie. We're seeing many more startups. We're seeing people who are laid off, start companies. So the question I ask myself is, do we still have enough problem surface area for humans to be productive? So is there more software incrementally for people to build that would make people's lives better, make things cheaper, better, faster, more entertaining?

39:30And the answer is yes. Now, is it possible? I think the optimistic take is there was 10 ,000 people building a metaverse that very few people used. Hopefully, they can go and start startups that actually contribute to society in more meaningful ways. You made a product people didn't want. Congratulations. Now you have to shut it down. I mean, it could be as simple as that, but they're also studying everybody's behavior with key capture and some desktop software they created in-house to do training. And this has people shook. So, Tane, what do you think of this concept of at the same time Zuckerberg is announcing the 8000 layoffs?

40:08He's saying, and we're recording your computers to do reinforcement learning for our models at a pretty granular level. But don't worry, it's anonymized. but we're recording it and we know when people leak information to the press so maybe it's not so anonymized what did you think of putting those two announcements together again i look at them all very differently and i have a couple of friends who work at meta uh what's the back channel the back channel is like people are not happy people are not happy there is like some version of this that companies do which is you have your your mdm system that they can use to kind of lock your computer.

40:44And so many of the companies, especially during COVID, set and installing time tracking and software to see what applications they're using, if you're actually working or not. But usually that happens in low trust environments. Like here, you're working with a bunch of contractors. You want to make sure the contractors are doing work. Makes sense. Or a regulated industry. Or regulated industry. This is one of the times when you see it here. And so the sense generally is like these folks felt that they were in a higher trust environment. And now once you start putting guardrails like this, it uses slightly sour taste in their mouth.

41:20And I can totally understand why Meta's doing this, right? They need to collect the data from somewhere, and they've gotten a lot of backlash from collecting it from their users over the years. And so that was this, but the one thing I would have changed that is at least change the messaging somehow. That it'd be a bit more opt-in, because I think company culture matters a lot. and I wouldn't place that above the cost of data. The company culture seems to be broken over there, or to some extent, or maybe it's just so cataclysmic right now when you're saying goodbye to people every 18 months. It's just hard for anybody to enjoy that.

42:01It's like being in this extended, never-ending war, right, Richard? You've been there. There's a survivor guilt for people in these kinds of situations often, and a lot of their friends go and so on. I think what's interesting here is that if you are an entrepreneur and you just care about the outputs of your organization, then you love AI. If you get paid by the hour and everything you do is owned by the company and you don't own any equity and significant shares of that company, then you may actually hate AI. Because, yeah, when you do something, the AI will record it and then Meta will clearly say, well, we can now do what this person has been doing.

42:39So they're going to be fired. Right. And so I think that could be a push to many more solopreneurs, entrepreneurs, because then they can love AI and AI is the future versus being feeling like the ice is learning what they're doing and then it's going to do it for them. I think that it might push more startups to be formed. Eric, this is the power of equity and everybody rowing in the same direction. If you worked at Meta and they were like, yeah, you have$10 million in equity,$5 million in equity,$1 million in equity, and they were like, you lost your job, but the company's massively profitable and the stock's going up 7 % a year.

43:15It's going up 12 % a year now. It's like, okay, well, if I have$2 million in RSUs, you're telling me it's going up 12 % a year? I'm making a quarter million dollars not working here, but you gave me enough equity? It's almost like what they're doing with these Trump accounts. They're trying to get every American into the stock market. So if there is job loss and companies are becoming more efficient, at least you can root for them from the sidelines and be like, yeah, I own some shares in that. It takes the edge off, yeah? Yeah, I think that's right. Yeah. And of course, it's sad when people lose jobs.

43:48But hopefully, the economy gets better over time and people find other jobs. And I'm very optimistic about the future. Here's an interesting chart that we threw up on the screen just a minute ago. we'll throw it back up here. This is software developer jobs. These had come crashing down to since mid-25, as you see, the software developer jobs are that light blue line that just does a complete V. And then you have the overall job postings. And these are on Indeed and Bloomberg, I guess, and Indeed did this together. Okay, so here is a job board posting showing a trend. Who knows if this is correct or not, but 125 million job postings down to 100 million overall, but software jobs coming plummeting down to 62 million and then back up to 74 million.

44:39So theoretically, since this time last year, we've seen a lot, 10 million more job postings on this one particular job board. I don't know if this is representative, But what we're seeing here is I think what we're seeing overall is people are picking the number they like to support their narrative. If you're in the Trump administration or you're a Republican and you're want to build the and you're building software and tools, you want to believe jobs are coming back. And if you're a doomer, you represent the unions, or maybe you're a Democrat who hates the right, you think that this is complete, utter job destruction.

45:19My P-Doom is pretty good right now. I think anybody coming out of college today who says they're an AI-first employee and they know how to use perplexity computer or rock computer or Claude co-work, anybody with, I don't know, 60 days of experience using those tools, I think it's a job instantly. I would hire somebody like that to work side by side with me 20 hours a day, every day. I'm actually looking for somebody like that right now. It's like, please come help me because I have so much to do. That position is, so you're young. So like roughly like say like 22 to 25, you are willing to basically like be beside me or sleeping in the office.

46:03It's like, okay so crazy work ethic crazy energy yeah to be the chief of something yes uh gonna be chief of staff i want them to be high emotional maturity right because they're going to be managing my my inbox and doing honestly a lot of things on my behalf they're going to be my second brain essentially and there's a good amount of automation that i do like at this point i don't open my inbox anymore because i built a whole inbox tool for myself and a lot of these tools i built for myself. I build inside the product. And I just want somebody high bandwidth to do that. Because for me, I had my younger brother.

46:41He's seven years younger to me. He's 21 right now. I just want another one of him to just be maniacally focused on this. And he's starting his own company. He raised money for it. So he's doing his things. I can't get him anymore. But that's what I'm desperately looking for. A backup brain. Yeah. Like you want an agent. I look at this as like Almost like guys used to have like a butler who like helped them dress like I'm, you know, and help their make sure their cars and their, you know, shotguns were all tweaked perfectly. Like somebody who is like your your body man standing next to you doing your driving and your security and everything.

47:19There's this need for somebody to do that, but to make software for you, like to be a software butler who just makes you bespoke software to solve all of your problems. but yeah anybody coming out of school eric with any kind of familiarity with ai is going to get a job yeah i'm not so sure i actually would take the other side of it yeah please i mean like i think what you saw like during the zirp era with like you know boot cramp grad could just you know spend like a couple months like learning basic coding and then get a job i do think it's gotten harder i do think you know in order to get it like an entry-level job today you do need to spend a little bit more time like learning the sort of ladders of abstraction and writing a lot more code And I have a feeling that part of the market is a little bit harder.

48:00I'm still bullish on software engineers. Like, I do think there's going to be an enormous amount of job creation. But I do think the bar, in my opinion, probably has gone up a little bit. I love the idea of a software valet. Here's another chart. Just try to make sense of this, folks. This is all workers and their unemployment rate, which is at a pretty close to our lifetime low. This is a little bit earlier in the year, 4.2. I think it's 4.4 right now overall. And then recent college graduates, age 22 to 27, 5.6 % unemployment. And then all college graduates, 3.1%. So it's hard to understand this data, except that recent college graduates almost never trailed all workers.

48:43They were more hireable. So there's something about college-age people recently out of the workforce that are, you know, maybe their unemployment's up 20 % or something. But it doesn't seem to be cataclysmic like we might see if something like self-driving works. Suddenly, we have self-driving work. I think, as usual, averages kind of are hard to interpret because you could have multimodal and bimodal distributions. My hunch is the young graduates that are bringing AI into organizations are highly sought after. And then there are some graduates who, you know, they studied history. and the history used to be fine.

49:22If you want to go to McKinsey and just become a general consultant or something, you could have felt okay with that, like be okay with that. But like now they're like, they don't know AI either. So, and they're like ramping them up. It will take them years before they get to an AI. And so I think it'll likely be bimodal and the average now is slightly increasing because there are more people studying social sciences and so on than like computer science and other AI adjacent people. If we look at these like wine vintages, you could have a season where like there's a group of people out there who are not AI first.

49:55And since they're the recent graduates are, you could have recent graduates, you know, outpacing these non recent graduates. You know, the people who maybe graduated five years ago, pre-Chat GPT, and they weren't using Chat GPT to cheat in school and Claude Co. You know, to do all their assignments, which was super weird. I don't know if you guys saw all the booing at the commencement addresses for AI. It feels like there's just generations of people who, it just gives them the ick, I think, as the kids say. The Pope also says AI needs to be disarmed a bit. Quote, artificial intelligence needs to be disarmed, freed from the logic that turned it into an instrument of domination, exclusion, and death.

50:38It must be at the service of all and the common good. That's Pope Leo. He warned, AI threatens to normalize an anti-human vision and said the concentration of digital power in the hands of a few private actors must be counted. Here's a video of that moment. Artificial intelligence needs to be disarmed. The word is strong, I know. But deliberately chosen because this moment needs words capable of attracting attention, awakening consciences, and indicating paths forward. for humanity. The Church has long been working for nuclear disarmament, aware that every great technical power can affect people's lives and so must be accompanied by adequate moral discernment and public control.

51:29Nuclear disarmament remains a service to peace and the dignity of the human family. In a similar sense, artificial intelligence now demands to be disarmed, freed from logics that turn it into an instrument of domination, exclusion, and death. Eric, clearly, the services you're providing and this infrastructure is in the service of domination and death. How are you planning to burn in purgatory for all time, Eric? Yeah, exactly. I mean, I do think that there's something where tech isn't fully aware of the PR battle here. Like there is something happening where like there's the general public is very nervous.

52:17And I don't think it's, you know, I don't think, you know, big figures are doing a great service when they're going out and talking about massive job losses and probability of doom and all these things. Like I look at all our customers and the amazing value creation that's happening. Like we have customers who are working on new drugs, like drug discovery that could cure amazing, you know, diseases we haven't been able to cure before. Like we have other customers that build amazing consumer products. And so like I feel like there's this very like pessimistic scenario leading to this like backlash to data centers and all these things.

52:53Like the problem with tech is like they have this sort of slightly autistic, like truth telling, you know, desire. And they're very dramatic and self-absorbed sometimes. And like, I think I feel like the tech industry almost like needs to hire like a couple of PR people. And then like engineers just need to like chill out a little bit and try to be a little bit more optimistic or else there's going to be some massive backlash against this technology. Richard, you're nodding here. how does it feel to be building tools to dominate, exclude, and create death and destruction amongst the populace of humanity, according to the Pope?

53:33Death, exclusion, and domination. We have to overturn this AI. There's a lot to unpack here. I mean, pretty dramatic words from the Pope, and he says, hey, I'm being dramatic for a reason. Do you think he believes what he does? I think he does. I think so. I think the future needs better marketing. I think that much is clear. I agree with Eric. I think LA is, you know, because they have a lot of illustrators and people and special effects and you can now create lots of special effects in virtual worlds very quickly. There's a lot of anti-AI sentiment there and they're trading most stories when you watch the studio, right, and others.

54:10They're like, literally say, yeah, like, fuck the AI and like, and so on. a lot of storytelling of dystopian futures and not a lot of positive storytelling where you can have drama but in an otherwise optimistic and positive future. I think that's true. I think it's also true that AI is only as good as the systems, the people and the data that influence it. It is a general purpose tool and just like the internet you can focus on all the horrible torture porn that's on the internet. I'm guessing it's there. You read about it sometimes and we should make that illegal and that is clearly regulated correctly.

54:44So, and you can focus on the internet just having horrible things and bullying and so on on it, or you can focus on the internet bringing amazing communication to everyone and connecting the world and bringing knowledge and making it super cheap to learn whatever you want to learn nowadays. And both can be true at the same time, right? This is omni-use technology. And maybe a last point is, I do think it's dangerous when CEOs say, this is the most dangerous technology ever. also we are the only ones who can do it really really safely and you should trust us and give us billions of dollars to make it as good as possible and then at this like at the end of that people will just remember the it's super dangerous and by the way i don't trust that random tech ceo to make it better and so why are they even building it in the first place and then it's just like a negative loop uh and and i am worried uh about uh some of those patterns that we're now seeing attacks on, you know, people's houses here in San Francisco, like Sam Alton's house and so on.

55:39I think as CEOs amp up this PDoom conversation, pretend like this is this like super hardcore technology that's bad. Now, at the same time, I think it makes sense to not focus on the negative applications. And some of those regulations, as they really influence people's lives do need strong regulation. Like we do need regulation on how AI is used in warfare. It's not something I want to work on. I don't think superintelligence should be used in warfare because that could literally lead to the kind of Skynet like scenarios. But you do need to regulate AI when it gets actually, you know, impactful for people's lives.

56:23And then in other areas, I think it's best not to overregulate too soon before you really know all the implications. Like there are a lot of stories where you can say, oh, AI has been really bad for mental health for these five cases, right? And you make those very public. But there are no stories where many people actually improve their mental health by talking through their problems with an AI. Those are sort of silently like happening as well. So there's a lot of gray in between the black and white. Yeah. And some companies maybe aren't doing themselves any favors or maybe if they want to get more attention.

57:00I think it's worked really well for marketing for those companies. It's worked really well for Anthropic with Mythos and like the valuation of the company and like, hey, the delusion of grandeur is like a known psychological phenomenon where people want to be important. They want to believe that they created the technology that then solves every problem in humanity. Here's Christopher Ola talking about the real possibility that human labor will go away. His holiness call for discernment is profoundly timely. I wish to name three questions where I think the church's voice is especially needed. The first is our duty to the global poor.

57:41There is a real possibility that AI will displace human labor at a very large scale. If that happens, supporting those displaced will be a moral imperative of historic proportions. Okay. So, uh, today, uh, you're hiring like crazy, uh, and, uh, the product is helping people communicate faster, better, more accurately. Uh, what, what do you think about the Pope's comments and anthropics, you know, pronouncements that like mythos is gonna, it's too powerful for anybody to have. It's gonna hack everything. It's all omni, omnient and can see through all hacks and problems and, you know, this sort of, are these delusions of grandeur or these, you know, thoughtful, you know, missives that we should consider as a society?

58:35There's a couple of people I know who think about these things deeply and they sound basically how Dario talks about these topics. and what I realized is once you really understand the meat of what they're actually talking about it makes a lot more sense but there's essentially like two kinds of people one who's very philosophical very intellectual like a big brain person like that's how I just mentally think about it and then there's people who are just more tactical more in the present and a lot of times you hear that and you hear like oh there's this going to be this this cognitive displacement of labor it doesn't resonate and it sounds like a far-fetched fear but there's actually a lot of truth to it and so what I found at least is being able to translate that into a way that is much more like resonates a lot more with people and what it actually tactically means today that way they can actually understand it and that is one thing that is like my my personal wish for for these folks, because if you read some of what Dario, if we go two years into the future, and we read all the things that Dario and Anthropik say today, it will make so much sense.

59:49But there's that communication gap where the way they phrase it out isn't how the average person consumes it. And so those get missed. And this has been historically what has happened with philosophers in the world. I know because my co-founder is like this, right? He says these very profound things to me that make sense to me six months later. And then I do work with him to figure out how can you tell me these things in ways that enter my brain. So I understand it now instead of it making sense six months later. And that's when I started to realize this trend emerged and got me appreciation for, oh, this is what you're trying to say that, but this is definitely not landing with anybody the way you wanted it to.

1:00:33And it feels more like fear-mongering when it's something completely different. I think it's well said. And I think maybe for our last topic here, talk a little bit about the explosion in Chinese models and their token usage. There's a data source called OpenRouter, and they are claiming that Chinese AI models hit 9 trillion tokens the week of May 18th, up 20 % basically week over week versus U.S. models up 16 % week over week at 5 trillion tokens. And the Chinese models have led weekly usage for four consecutive weeks. DeepSeek version 4 Flash, now the number one model globally at 3.4 trillion tokens top us models um claude opus sonnet and then gemini 3 flash preview all at uh or at 1.9 1.9 and 1.1 trillion respectively quinn 3.7 max also dropped this week eric are you seeing um american companies starting to embrace these models yet or yes yeah at a massive scale i mean the chinese models are very good and and i wish there were better open source models coming out of the US.

1:01:50But the reality is there isn't. Why is that? Why are we seeing two different approaches? I mean, it's sort of like all of us, but for the audience, yeah. Some people claim, and I think there's some legitimacy to the argument that the Chinese models, they're all distilled on US proprietary models and or subsidized by the Chinese government in order to build better models. I think there is some logic to that argument. And I think it's worth discussing those things. I also think to some extent that the Chinese teams are very good. If you read the DeepSeek paper, it's just sentence after sentence of just profound research that is very, very deep.

1:02:31And so I don't know. I wish we had better models in the US that are open source, but today we don't. You're using these models currently or forking them, building off them? What can you tell us a little bit about the Chinese models think about them we're experimenting with some of them and they are really good they are really good when it comes to like what's their open source and i mean same as eric like i think the way the way capitalism is set up in the u.s none of these companies are incentivized to build open source models and then this is what we have to eventually lean on to but the one issue that we saw happening with them is they have very interesting and strange biases that come into these models.

1:03:19And so we can't deploy them as is. So that's, again, because we end up being the layer between what you say and what eventually gets written out. And the last thing you want is any kind of censoring or misinterpretation of what you said to go out. So we decided not to deploy these models directly as the core thing that's running, but using them a lot for some other internal tools. presumably you can fine-tune them and though and like still like get like okay results have you ever looked into that you could there's all these little edge cases that comes up uh one was really funny like is taiwan a country something tiananmen square how do i get there yeah see see those things those things but one was really funny this didn't happen with the chinese model happened with another model, but it had this very little nuance where if you said, hey, ladies, with like a Latino accent, it would convert it and write, hey, mamas.

1:04:22And this is such like a rare edge case. I do not know how that came into the model. We found one little thing that came in from there. But really, with the breadth of usage, it's very hard to test all of this. And so you need to have like massive, massive eval sets to actually get it to work. This could be actually a feature set. You could just be able to set Whisperflow like, hey, I would like everything I say to go through like a Gen Z filter and just drop in, you know, Riz and whatever. I want mine to go through the Urban Dictionary. I want mine to go through like 70s and 80s slang. The Gen Z filter we actually launched last week.

1:04:58People are really enjoying that one. Awesome. All right. Listen, another amazing episode of This Week in AI. Thank you, Richard, Tanei, and Eric. you guys are all hiring in the AI job apocalypse. So take from that what you will, dear audience. But maybe you could each give a little plug for who you're trying to hire and how people can find out more. We're hiring primarily systems engineers and we're based in New York. So if you're on the West Coast or on the East Coast, we're also hiring SF, but primarily in New York, hiring a lot of people who love building complex systems, low-level performance optimization, stuff like that.

1:05:36Right. And Eric is giving everybody who comes and joins a pair of tickets to the next finals. So if you refer a SIF admin, he'll buy you a pair of tickets to the finals. I'm joking. I just made that up. Richard? So at Recursive, we're hiring also infrastructure folks, folks who can wrangle tens of thousands of GPUs. And that's mostly it. some very, very strong researchers that are able to build very large frontier models. We have a few roles too. And then at U.com, we're looking for a lot of senior backend engineers, folks that want to wrangle very large search indices to actually make these models up-to-date, accurate, and have citations.

1:06:21And Tunei? We're hiring a lot of ex-founders, product leads, GMs for all the new business units that we're building, hiring researchers, engineers across the stack, salespeople,

1:06:41and marketing and growth folks. And the key things that we really care about is if you're somebody who is a first principles thinker, you're low ego, and you're hungry to win, then you're going to fit right in. And we are hiring associates in training. So we like to train up associates out of school to learn the craft of being a great investor, you can go to x.com slash launch and you can DM launch to get more details. If you follow our x.com slash launch, previously known as Twitter, we'll see you all next time. Bye bye.

From the publisher

The AI jobs panic is here. Meta cut 8,000. Intuit cut 3,000. CapEx went up. Nobody can agree if anyone has actually lost a job to AI, or just to the promise of it. We dug into the GPU squeeze, the new craft of "reward engineering," Pope Leo's call to disarm AI, and why Chinese open-source models just blew past American ones in token usage.

This week's roundtable: Erik Bernhardsson (CEO of Modal Labs, the serverless GPU cloud), Tanay Kothari (CEO of Wispr Flow, the voice dictation app every VC in the valley uses), and Richard Socher (CEO of Recursive Superintelligence and You.com).


Thank you to our exclusive sponsor:

PayPal Open, One Platform for All Business: http://paypalopen.com/


Timestamps:

0:00 Cold open

0:53 Welcome to Episode 15

5:53 Recursive's plan to build a self-improving "Eureka machine"

8:10 Token spend now exceeds headcount at the frontier

9:56 GPU crunch, Hopper prices, and the Anthropic-Colossus shockwave

12:23 Wispr Flow's 90% gross margin playbook

14:30 Running $100M in marketing with two humans and a swarm of agents

18:29 Reward hacking, paperclips, and the rise of the "reward engineer"

24:39 Why CEOs put one person in charge: multi-objective AI

28:17 Meta's 8,000 layoffs, $145B CapEx, Goldman vs. Stanford

33:23 "Nobody lost their job to AI, just the promise of AI"

37:57 Jevons paradox: software demand is infinite, illustrations aren't

39:48 Meta's keystroke monitoring and the back-channel reaction

42:55 Equity, Trump accounts, and rooting for your old employer

44:06 The Bloomberg/Indeed dev jobs chart

47:34 Jason's pitch: hiring a 22-year-old AI-native "software valet"

50:29 Pope Leo: "AI needs to be disarmed"

57:41 Chris Olah on AI displacement and the global poor

1:00:46 Chinese models hit 9 trillion tokens, DeepSeek V4 Flash goes #1

1:03:04 Strange biases, Tiananmen Square, and the US open-source vacuum

1:05:07 Who they're hiring


🔗 Guests:

Erik Bernhardsson, Modal Labs: https://modal.com | https://x.com/bernhardsson

Tanay Kothari, Wispr Flow: https://wisprflow.ai | https://x.com/tankots

Richard Socher, Recursive Superintelligence / You.com: https://recursive.com | https://x.com/RichardSocher


🔗 Referenced in this episode:

Modal Labs: https://modal.com

Wispr Flow: https://wisprflow.ai

Recursive Superintelligence launch: https://recursive.com

You.com: https://you.com

Anthropic / SpaceX Colossus 1 compute deal: https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-spacex

TechCrunch on the $1.25B/month Anthropic-xAI compute deal: https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/20/anthropic-will-pay-xai-1-25-billion-per-month-for-compute/

Meta's 8,000 layoffs and 2026 AI CapEx of $145B: https://www.reuters.com

Intuit cuts 3,000 jobs to fund AI integration: https://www.reuters.com

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon NYT op-ed on AI job loss: https://www.nytimes.com

Stanford study on entry-level AI-exposed jobs (-16%): https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu

Pope Leo XIV: "AI needs to be disarmed": https://www.vatican.va

Chris Olah (Anthropic) on AI and the global poor: https://www.anthropic.com

OpenRouter token usage leaderboard: https://openrouter.ai/rankings

DeepSeek V4 Flash: https://www.deepseek.com

Qwen 3 Max (Alibaba): https://qwenlm.ai


🔗 Subscribe and follow:

Newsletter and all platforms: https://thisweekinai.ai


#ThisWeekInAI #AI #ModalLabs #WisprFlow #Recursive #YouCom #DeepSeek #Qwen #MetaLayoffs #Anthropic #Colossus #PopeLeo #RewardHacking #AIJobs #OpenSource

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