Benchmark's Sarah Tavel on the state of VC, AI's impact on startups & more! | E1813

20 Sep 2023 · 1 h 25 min

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Podcast Summary: This Week in Startups - E1813 Title: Benchmark's Sarah Tavel on the state of VC, AI's impact on startups & more! Host: Jason Calacanis Guest: Sarah Tavel, Partner at Benchmark Date: [Insert Date of Episode]

Episode Overview In this episode of *This Week in Startups*, Jason Calacanis interviews Sarah Tavel, a partner at Benchmark, where they discuss the current state of venture capital (VC), the transformative impact of AI on startups, and insights from Sarah’s blog on Substack.

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Key Topics Discussed

  1. The State of Venture Capital (1:57)
  2. Challenges for Founders:
  3. Founders faced numerous hurdles over recent years, including the COVID-19 pandemic, economic downturns, and the fallout from the Silicon Valley Bank's collapse.
  4. There’s a growing resilience requirement for today's founders.
  1. Benchmark's Culture and Investment Strategy (13:33)
  2. Company Culture:
  3. Sarah describes Benchmark’s emphasis on curiosity and collective learning through team dinners with diverse guests.
  4. Investment Perspective:
  5. The firm looks for innovative founders who can address unique market needs.
  1. Trends in VC (21:35)
  2. Remote Work vs. In-Person Collaboration:
  3. Sarah argues that while remote work offers access to global talent, in-person collaboration fosters a stronger company culture, particularly in early-stage startups.
  1. Mistakes and Tradeoffs in Venture Capital (25:45)
  2. Common Missteps:
  3. Founders often overlook governance and structure, which can lead to future challenges.
  1. Sarah's Substack and Writing Insights (31:51)
  2. Purpose of Writing:
  3. Writing helps clarify thoughts and connect with curious, ambitious founders.
  1. Entrepreneurship in 2023 (36:54)
  2. Importance of Vision:
  3. Successful entrepreneurs must have a long-term vision and ability to navigate challenges.
  1. AI's Impact on Startups (44:31)
  2. AI as a Catalyst:
  3. AI is democratizing technology access and changing how startups operate.
  4. Founders should focus on creating value through AI rather than just improving productivity.
  1. Business Models and Funding (58:36)
  2. Funding Strategies:
  3. Startups must innovate in business models to leverage AI effectively.
  1. Strategic Partnerships and Mergers & Acquisitions (1:04:42)
  2. Caution with Strategic Partners:
  3. Working with strategic partners can complicate governance and decision-making processes, potentially creating conflicts of interest.
  1. Macro Economic Considerations (1:14:54)
  2. Investor Perspective:
  3. Current economic conditions influence investment strategies, focusing on solid gross margins and sustainable business practices.

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Key Takeaways

  • Resilience in Founding: Modern founders must be adaptable and resilient, facing unprecedented challenges.
  • Cultural Cohesion: In-person interactions often yield better results in early-stage startups compared to remote work.
  • AI as a Game Changer: The rise of AI shifts the competitive landscape for startups, encouraging new types of business models.
  • Strategic Caution: Partnerships with larger firms can provide resources but may introduce complexities that hinder startup growth.

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Conclusion Sarah Tavel offers valuable insights into the evolving landscape of venture capital and the revolutionary changes brought about by AI. Founders are encouraged to think deeply about their company culture, long-term vision, and innovative strategies to harness the full potential of emerging technologies.

For more insights, you can follow Sarah Tavel on [Twitter](https://twitter.com/sarahtavel) and check out her [Substack](https://www.sarahtavel.com).

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Sponsors

  • Miro: Collaborative online whiteboard for teams.
  • Vanta: Simplifying compliance and security for startups.
  • Mercury: Banking solutions tailored for startups.

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*Note: For a deeper dive into the conversation, listen to the full episode on your favorite podcast platform.*

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Transcript

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0:00You know, what I think about for the last few years is, yeah, you have elements of the first bubble, just that implosion, but there just has been so much else going on. And of course, there's the zero rate environment, what effect that's had. But you have just so many other things that you've had to contend with as a founder over the last few years. That, you know, of course, it was grow, grow, grow, cash, cash, cash, but in person, not in person, having to handle so many of the kind of progressive movements that were coming along. How do you respond as a CEO in those moments? You have the Silicon Valley Bank thing that's happening.

0:47I never would have thought. I mean, it's a long list and certainly, you know, it's a resilient to be a founder. Now you have to, you've had a lot of resilience. This Week in Startups is brought to you by Miro helps take ideas from in your head to out there in the world with its ability to democratize collaboration and input. Sign up for free at miro.com slash startups. Vanta, compliance and security shouldn't be a deal breaker for startups to win new business. Vanta makes it easy for companies to get a SOC to report fast. Twist listeners can get$1 ,000 off for a limited time at vanta.com slash twist.

1:34and Mercury, 90 % of startups fail. Just 10 out of every 100 make it. Mercury exists to close that gap, helping companies succeed with banking and credit cards engineered for the startup journey. Join over 100 ,000 companies banking with Mercury at mercury.com. All right, everybody, we've been crushing it with guests during This Week in Startups All-Star Summer. So many amazing guests. that it's spilling into September. That's right. Your summer's not over. Look at this lineup of Murderer's Row. Rich from Zillow, Nikesh from Palo Alto Networks, Dave from MongoDB, Scott from Atlassian, Ryan from Qualtrics, Dharmesh from HubSpot, all the greats.

2:21And, you know, one of the great guests we've had on doesn't like to do podcasts. She likes to work. But she's quietly built up a little sub-stack audience. And, you know, like my my bestie bill girley she doesn't write often but when she does it's very much worth your attention uh so go ahead before we do anything here search for sarah tavel t-a-v-e-l sub stack and put your email in especially if you're a founder because you're going to want to read what she has to say because she's let's just put it out there she's brilliant uh she was the first product manager of pinterest uh and i i guess you left graylock to join pinterest and then you went on to join benchmark because let's be honest the economics at benchmark are equal and other venture firms uh they make you work for decades to to get to the top of the hill so welcome back second time show guest sarah tap always a pleasure thanks for having me little intro there and then my sub stack's new so i'm like scraping my way so i appreciate you uh doing a shout out there trust me i know how to get guests back on the program i get to a thousand founders signing up that's a good start it's a good start i'll send you a thank you note the thank you note is just promising to come on every year or two uh and i guess the last time you were on we were in the studio so it was before covid way back when it was a world ago um and so and you had just joined i think um you were on february 2020 oh my god you were on that what oh my god it was like the week or two before wow uh covet hit so it was when people just stopped shaking hands just for uh oh this is where we had the controversy where mark andreason put on his door no handshakes please no handshakes please and then everybody in the mainstream media said he's hysterical lunatic and then they told everybody to stay in for two years the world is insane.

4:20That was such a different time. It's wild to think. I think a lot about founders who have gone through those last few years. Is there a time in the modern internet era where we've had a more thrashy, crazy time to be a founder? The only two you could ever put up against that would be the dot-com bust yeah and uh the great financial crisis which as great as it was was kind of like that happened on wall street and in housing so it was kind of like a bomb that went off that didn't hit us all that directly we just got the aftershocks right so those are the only two yeah the the first you know what i think about for the last few years is yeah you have elements of the kind of first bubble, just that implosion.

5:13But there just has been so much else going on. Of course, there's the zero rate environment, what effect that's had. But you have just so many other things that you've had to contend with as a founder over the last few years that, you know, of course, it was grow, grow, grow, cash, cash, cash, but in person, not in person, having to handle so many of the kind of progressive movements that were coming along. How do you respond as a CEO in those moments? You have the Silicon Valley Bank thing that's happening i never would have thought i mean it's it's a long list and certainly you know it's a resilient to be a founder now you have to you've had a lot of resilience and if you look at all four of the ones you rattled off the top of your head and man that's a great summary you know sometimes you just as a founder or a capital allocator like we do now um you just assume it's going to be hard but each one of those is like a grenade being thrown into the lobby of building like okay now we've got uh silicon valley banks going under we don't know if our cash is going to be there on monday yeah everybody run around all 72 hours you know doing caps all caps lock tweets number two okay it's covid your business is either airbnb and it's turned off or your door dash and it's went 10x and you can't deliver all the food then uh you got a bunch of insane people inside your company that are putting a gun to the founder's head and telling them whatever the social movement of the day is we'd like you to alienate half of our customers yes for the next six months and then your employees yeah your employees it's madness and then oh yeah by the way um we don't want to come back to work uh and i'm probably working two jobs right i just saw that the other day somebody was on twitter and they found out their employee who they hired away from another company that they didn't actually hire them away from that company they're still working i've heard those stories and there's a subreddit called over employed it is now a playbook there are playbooks on how to have multiple jobs let's start with that okay and great companies be built with everybody being spread to the four corners uh or is this is something missing here, especially in the stage you and I tend to invest.

7:47Benchmark is the classic of the classic series. And investors, you're looking for a little inflection point in consumer, you're looking for domain expertise and enterprise. And that's when you like to slide in there and get your, you know, 10-15 % slice of the pie and join the board, most importantly. Can this be done at that stage or my stage when you're trying to find product market fit in the seed stage, can it be done remote? Or are we missing something by promoting this remote culture? Man, if I could go back in time, and the companies that we, you know, we invested in, I would say the founders would tell you this, if they could go back in time, and be co located instead of distributed, they would, they would do that.

8:33Obviously, there's exceptions to all rules, right? And this is certainly no rule. But I would say unless you're a really experienced manager already as a founder, most cases, the companies that we're looking at are founders, and this is, they're, they're young, they've never, they, in most cases, have never managed people before starting a company. And to do it distributed, to me is like trying to sprint with a parachute tied to your back. You know, it's just, there's so, and I get you, you get into this mindset of, I want to, I want to access the global maximum of talent. And that talent has gone everywhere.

9:16And I get that it's a real trade off. But man, in that beginning stages, especially before you've really figured out product market fit and are starting to have that momentum build, the cost of communication, collaboration, culture, you know, the intensity, I don't know about you, like, I remember, some of my favorite memories from Pinterest were the late nights or coming into the office on the weekend and like seeing your buddies there. And that just creates this intensity and identity with the company and i think more collaboration more throughput better decision making better ideas and so i i've been noticing in 2023 how many more companies i see these early founder stories where the founders live together yeah it's such an even more than way more it's having than i've ever seen yeah it's in the area i live uh the wider peninsula area san mateo-ish there are a bunch of founder homes now and founders are renting giant mansions which are cheaper on a per bedroom basis and they're just working seven days a week which by the way that's kind of what put silicon valley on the map what it takes yeah and it's it's such an interesting snapback from what we saw in 2021 as an example where it was always like two zoom screens you know two squares somebody's here somebody's there and man the the the bones that you set when you're living together or your team is co-located and that's such an important part of the culture i feel like that is like you have to it's just rare and and and special and one of the unique things that you have as a small subscale startup and to not take advantage of that in the beginning seems like uh you know that parachute yeah it's it's a wasted opportunity but you did say there's a trade-off so when you start thinking about hey we need this very specific talent and here in the united states we have record low unemployment of our lifetimes it's so it you know i have employees in canada as but one example i started a canadian company during the boom time um to hire people in canada because i found people in the u.s were turning over every 18 months you know just much faster and that canadians turned over at half the rate it's a slight discount uh but not ridiculous um but there was just much more talent available and you know what venture capital jobs are available in canada none you know like so if you're hiring analysts yeah it worked out pretty well but now i find myself longing for more in person.

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12:44It's like an old school in person whiteboarding session, but distributed and asynchronous. So you can work on your time schedule. Miro let you brainstorm ideas and collaborate on projects from anywhere in the world, whether you're in the Adirondacks, or you're in Cabo, or you're skiing in Lake Tahoe. When you think about Miro think zero to one but faster and Miro is so much more than a simple digital whiteboard your team can collaborate on planning research design and feedback cycles now remember faster inputs equals faster outcomes and velocity is how startup wins we look for product velocity in all of our startups so to access our new Miroverse template and thousands of others sign up today for a free Miro account at Miro M-I-R-O dot com slash startups again M-I-R-O dot com slash startups miro.com slash startups is the firm you guys had a great office in the city at one point i don't know where benchmark is these days um yes are you and you were famous for the i think it was monday or tuesday night dinners you would do these dinners as a team it's monday night dinners at this like weird table it's the triangular table for five tell us about those dinners and uh are they back?

13:54We've been doing, you know, we, I don't remember when we started coming back in person after shelter in place, but we were pretty eager to come back. You know, we just felt, you just felt the difference of Monday, you know, team of six people and what happens when you're all on Zoom versus the, you know, the, the, it's kind of like being only being able to see two colors versus seeing all the colors that happen when you're when you're in person so we were pretty quick to come back as a partnership on monday on mondays and then the thing that was slower was bringing the dinners back um and the dinners you know one of the things that uh i think is a real cultural tenant of benchmark is that we're just deeply curious people uh and we i think also just really like being together and having, you know, some, you know, good wine, good, good food together.

14:55And so one of the things that we do both to nurture that curiosity that we all have, and then just to have fun together and have a good time is having these guests come on Mondays. It's one of the things that Bill actually brought to Benchmark, I think inspired by benjamin franklin and how benjamin franklin also nurtured his own curiosity of bringing in people who are experts in whatever you know a domain that he was curious about at the time and and so for us it's like a it's a pretty broad spectrum of people i won't name drop but uh it's you know it's one of the things i i most look forward to and we try to do it almost every monday yeah i won't name drop names i know that have been there either but you know an author a politician a retired politician a former entrepreneur a scientist it could be anybody doing something very interesting in the world and i think the great investments you know i'm curious how you think about outliers they tend not to fit in a box they tend to be multidisciplinary the founders tend to be difficult cantankerous uh you know i'm talking about the successful ones um you know driven uh mission driven driven because of whatever happened whatever trauma they went through in their childhood chip on their shoulder yes whatever chip they happen to have um but there is something about when you learn about other disciplines and you see innovation happen in other verticals that that really can help you in your vertical maybe talk a little bit about that kind of multidisciplinary cross-disciplinary mindset it's um it's it's i don't have you read range by david epstein yeah i mean it's incredible yeah it's you know and it's such by the way it's it's such a great example of one of those books that you know i forget who read it first whether it was peter bill or eric or whoever it was but someone read it and comes to our group and says oh my god you have to read this it's so interesting and we're all You know, it's just curious and it's, you know, it's part of the fun thinking outside the box that happens is being able to go down whatever rabbit hole or pull whatever thread you might have from whatever you're learning or been curious about recently.

17:20And I love that book. I highly recommend it to people because the thesis he explores, it was actually catalyzed by a debate he was doing with Malcolm Gladwell on the 10 ,000 hours specialization, Tiger Woods studying, playing golf from when he was four years old and becoming the great that he is today versus, I think it was Nadal? No, it was the Swedish. Andre Agassi was it? No, not Andre Agassi. It was somebody who had played multiple sports and came to it later. Yeah, well, he has, I'm terrible for forgetting his name. He's one of the greats. I just, I'm not a sports person, but he, his, he ended up playing tennis.

18:09Actually, his parents were tennis coaches, but what they told him to do was first to study, to play all these sports. you know they didn't let him specialize early and so he did he did a range of sports and then eventually yeah federer thank you it was federer you know how i know that how i i hate to tell people my secrets i literally just typed into chat gpt4 which we're going to talk about yeah i for the second half of this who are the athletes in the book range and it literally put it in a table roger federer tiger woods vince van gogh jack nicholas Perfect. Perfect. Great. It'll be a great segue.

18:49But so he did a range and then he specialized. And when David Epstein studied these two opposing models, what he found was that there was actually far more success going after the breadth and then specializing than just specializing. But then, you know, you kind of start to expand that, you know, thinking about teams and teams, you know, that are all specialists aren't as good at solving problems as like a team of people from different disciplines or perspectives. And similarly, it's a type of thing that like, I remember meeting a CFO candidate, and I loved that he hadn't been a SAS CFO or VP of finance his entire career.

19:33He had done some e-commerce. He had done a consumption model company, a SaaS model. And when you have that breadth of experience, what ends up happening is that your creative problem solving is better. You're not a hammer looking for a nail. You see things in a way that other people don't see things. And it's just the ingredients that you need. We think about it a lot for our partnership construction, too, of just making sure we're always having people from different areas, perspectives coming in. Victor, our most recent addition, being a great example of that. Why is he a great example of it?

20:16Well, he was the CEO and founder of an incredible company in the gaming space called Wildlife. And he, we actually, we were investors in it. So he was a benchmark funded CEO from Brazil natively and built this just incredible business. And we both, you know, we recognize, you know, Eric Vishria is another partner at Benchmark who had been a founder CEO. You know, I obviously spent a few years doing real work at Pinterest, but we felt like we wanted somebody else in the mix who had, you know, had that experience, and then also had this, you know, a different perspective, both as someone, you know, he's natively from Brazil, having that more kind of global point of view, but then very importantly, also building a type of company that none of us really had deep exposure to.

21:19And, and then he has these, you know, incredible relationships that he's built over the years with so many incredible founders the brex founders as an example whom he's on the on the board of brex and so anyway just a trifecta right there different way you got a continent you got a category in gaming uh and you got a skill set being a founder and let's double click on that last one seems like the industry is um and i listen i'm a beneficiary of this i was a founder um and a journalist so i kind of got two of the things that people look for in vcs these days um it used to be analysts like girly uh lifelong career venture capitalist fred wilson that was how vc worked you got a bunch of mbas you got a bunch of analysts and that seemed to be really good but then the industry pivoted and said hey journalists seem to ask really good questions they're very curious people let's give a couple slots to them and then now hey are you um a ceo founder there may be a little bit of a divergence like did you work at a successful company and because maybe vc got a little too big that doesn't seem like just because you happen to be at uber or happen to be at pinterest or whatever like what did you actually do there you know like if you're chamath and you grew it from 40 million to 400 million at facebook okay you got the bona fides but it did seem like we just started taking random people from logos well i'll give a little twist on that which is that you know when you are an operator, the parallel of an investment decision is the company that you join.

22:53And so it's one thing to be at a company and I just, oh, I got lucky. I was just there and then it happened around me. And I think there's a lot of instances where that does happen or the company is already an inevitability when someone joins. But then I think about my partner, Matt Kohler, whom was first five employees at LinkedIn, and then made a very intentional decision to leave LinkedIn and join Facebook. For me, with Pinterest, obviously invested at the Series A, and then I was just so excited about the company. It was four people when we invested. And just so excited about what was possible there that I couldn't imagine a world where I didn't throw my hat into the ring and beg for a job basically and so there's an intentionality i think that you see for some people uh in the early like deciding to commit to a company as an operator that in a way is an investment is is a sign of an investment decision it is you are placing five years of your life i mean four if we just are totally cutthroat about it and think about like a stock vesting you're trading four years of your life and you may have 30 productive years uh depending on when you start taking your career seriously and when you decide to retire so hey listen you're talking about 15 of your career you're making a bet yes cheryl sandberg made a bet on google and then she made a bet on facebook and you know she had that famous quote um it doesn't matter what seat yeah yeah like if there's a rocket ship take a seat if you're a sass or services company that stores customer data in the cloud, then you need to be SOC 2 compliant.

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25:22We all know that. Listen, it's a hard year. Last year was hard. You can't lose those major customers because you don't have your compliance dialed in. Just work with Vanta. Get your compliance automated and tight and tight is right lock down those big deals. Here's the best part Vant is going to give you$1 ,000 off that's 10 hundies get$1 ,000 off at Vanta.com slash twist that's Vanta.com slash twist for$1 ,000 off your sock too. And I love your framing of that's first time I've ever considered that framing of it is an investment decision and and hey, four years of your life. Yeah, if it doesn't go much stronger, you know, a lot of operators that talk to me about getting into investing and then their seed investing and our angel investing rather and there's it's a reflection of something like your network and sourcing but ultimately the strongest reflection of the type of investing we do which is one or two deeply committed investments every year there's that the closest parallel to that is the company you choose to join and when and that's one or two per partner per year correct yeah so and there's five partners in benchmark or six there's six now in victor so you're talking about one or two means 1.5 so you're talking about the firm does nine ten investments per year one every month or you know one every six weeks or so so it really is done incredibly thoughtfully um and you're joining the board most people excuse me in the industry uh think the deal flow is destiny obviously i think that's a big part of it but you are saying here selection is equally important or more important than deal flow i don't think in those terms because it's it's um there's two things at play or rather i would think of it this way which is like i'm a big believer every strength has a corresponding weakness and vice versa and so everything has trade-offs it's kind of like, you know, the employees who complain about a company feeling like a show internally, it's because it's decentralized, and there's all this redundancy and all these things.

27:35But the strength of that, you can see the weakness, but the strength of that is that the company is moving really quickly and scaling really quickly with revenue and everything else. And so there's trade-offs. For benchmark, the strength, I believe, in our model is that we are, you know, we're a team of equal partners. And all we want is to find the, you know, the founders that will be those generational founders, and then partner with them in that shoulder-to-shoulder work that, you know, means that we're not delegating any part of the what we consider to be the core work of a board member to an internal team of consultants to a platform team.

28:23So we have, you know, deep commitment, truth seeking as a partnership, and all alignment that once we invest in a company, we all are empowered and want that company equally to be successful. So you have the full benchmark partnership behind you. The corresponding weakness of that is that we don't have a team of dozens of junior people who are reaching out to founders, you know. And so my fear always is that a founder doesn't hear from us, you know, and they consider they just assume that the fact that no person from Benchmark has reached out to them means we're not interested in them. when really it's there's there's a constraint that we naturally have with our model that just means that we don't have that you know that that army of people who are doing that work reaching out you know nurturing all the seed relationships and it's a it's a paranoia I have and you know I'm all you know that's why we're always you know I'm writing or doing podcasts or reaching out to friends or developing notes, hoping, cold DMing people as much as we can, but at the end of the day, we have this constraint and we have to hope that the product that we do have, which is that deep commitment where we're not delegating any part of that job, means that when that really ambitious founder who wants the best partner that they can have makes sure to find an introduction to us or you know a a and some way of getting to us and by the way i'm sarah benchmark.com like so i think sometimes people think that oh you know it's well go ahead well no i was gonna say you know a lot of vcs get high on their own supply yes this is when i know that a vc is about to crash and they should retire is when they start writing about how you should contact me here are the rules for contacting me and he's like uh hey dummy we're in a service business stop complaining about your email your dms uh that's the job you have to live because you don't have an army of people screening your inbound like i do or you don't have an army of people like uh listen indrescent horowitz you know it's the platform company you might you might not have mentioned their name but i will you know they got 50 recruiters 30 recruiters sitting there doing in the recruiting job where you know hey benchmarks feeling is if and i've talked to bill gurley about this if bill gurley's email me you know any cfos for a company like this who do you think might be great i mean i've gotten 50 emails over the years what do you think of this person i see you're connected to them on linkedin that's bill gurley yes girl he's rich you don't need to do that but then you know when he brings that cfo or that person chief product officer you know whatever vp avenge to that founder hey yeah i check with jake al i check with this person and that's a super that's a superpower right there yes so different different strokes for different folks but you in your uh because i was just down the sarah tavel rabbit hole i read like all your sub stacks from this year really really worth uh checking out you know hey reach out dm's open email me if any you said in a very nice way if this sounds if this resonates with you or something like that you had a little hook that i thought was very charming uh and thoughtful talk to me about writing uh as clarity of thought and a way to find the mutants out there i i look at my podcast and uh you know that happens to be my zone and i'm a writer too but you know i look at my podcast as a way for me to be professor x you know put on cerebro and go look for mutants right uh if they're listening to the pod it's self-selected hey they want to hear us talk for an hour about the gritty details of this most people want a 15 minute interview i'm like yeah enjoy 75 minutes or don't i don't care uh but that's a way of me clarifying my thought and showing my intellectual curiosity your writing shows yours talk about getting on the horse here and trying to be disciplined about writing on a regular basis in your process yeah i mean i i'm i know i've been blogging since 2006 six.

32:41I had a, I remember blog spot. And for me, you know, especially back then, I was a year out of college starting in venture. And I probably felt at the time, if I look back on my very first blog posts, I was struggling being the only woman at my firm. It was just a brand new experience I'd never, I thought would be fine, but actually was rather intimidating in the beginning. I was, you know, 20, 21, 22. And so blogging in the beginning was a way for me to just find another outlet that was more comfortable for me. And what ended up happening is I learned two things, which is one, exactly as you said, that when you are forced to write, you, you know, you always have these ideas and they're little wisps, you know, and you have to really grab onto it and pull it all the way.

33:34and it takes work, you know, writing as you know, my, you know, I think about my hierarchy of marketplaces that I wrote that's actually on my medium where I've been writing before. It took me hundreds, like way more than 100 hours to work on that piece. And it's one of those things that I, in the beginning, I thought I knew, I remember, I put it first draft together and showed it to Bill, and he came back generously with all these notes. And you realize you don't really know something until you write it. And so, through writing it and synthesizing, I find that it puts me in more of a learning mindset, and I learn more.

34:12And then the second thing that you have is the community or the, you know, the people who for whom those pieces then resonate. And, you know, you talked about your selection bias for mutants. I hope my selection bias is always looking for learning animals, you know, people who are just, they're working on something and they're curious and they're learning and they're thinking about how to build something that's going to dominate, you know, the competition. I want those people to read something I wrote and like they want to build an enduring business, an enduring company where you're not just focused on, you know, getting to the series A and then the B and then C, but you're focused on how do I build something great for my customer work backwards from there i want those founders to read what i write and have it resonate for them and that really is three things it's curious but they also have to have some competition in them absolutely yeah and that is and then uh they have to be decade thinkers so it's really those are the three things when you gave that answer that i immediately parsed um let's take the second one i've got a competition in me i don't like to see other people succeed that's there will be blood you got a little competition in you you're a competitive person you were the head of your rugby team that's i think your avatar is you with like more paint under your eyes with dirt all over you if you're an ambitious startup you can't have an old sluggish banking service slowing you down no mercury is banking for ambitious companies and they will help your startup become the best version of itself and so many of our companies in our fund in our community are using mercury.com and they love it.

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36:41Disclaimer, Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group and Evolve Bank and Trust. Members, FDIC. talk about competition and the i think it was ruloff who said this to me like you know there's certain people who have like a little overdrive they can put it into fifth gear six gear they can hit the afterburners and get that little extra 20 percent uh which i interpret it as that competitive spirit that that next gear um why is that so rare and how do you identify you know i find why is it so rare you've got to have a chip on your shoulder there's got to be something you know i know for me i i my hypothesis for me is that i'm the oldest of five there were four of us in four and a half years and in a way i had to compete for attention from my parents You know, and so for me, achieving was my way of getting attention.

37:45And all you know, and so that was that was what it was for me, everybody has their own thing that, that, that creates that competitive spirit. And I think there's probably a feedback loop that also happens, which is that you are successful, and it fuels it, right. And so whatever it is, like you want someone, this stuff, it's really freaking hard, right? Like building a company that endures, that is, you know, able to be eventually one of those kind of rare, iconic, independent companies. It's a relentless pursuit of excellence. And you have to be so vulnerable and admit how little you know, because you're constantly in the biggest job you've ever had.

38:38You're constantly growing, being challenged, feeling all the things that you don't know or all the mistakes you're making. It's just part of being a founder, being a CEO in particular. And you have to have a drive that's going to get you through that. mission is one of the most important drives, right? Like, just feeling so committed to the reason why you started the company in the first place and what your customer needs from you. But there's, there's another thing that I think creates that overdrive. And it's that desire to win that pushes you, you know, winning is hard, right? Like you, I was a competitive swimmer.

39:20and like man the hours that i put into the pool and like the race itself it there's there's so much discipline that comes there but it's really hard to answer your second question how do you see it i don't think people just become competitive out of nowhere i think people that are competitive have a track record of being competitive you know and so i'd seeing that it's it's um i remember when I used to interview for the analyst position at Bessemer, to be an analyst at, you know, one of these junior people, cold calling companies, you have to be persistent. And I would always ask the candidate, like, tell me a story of when you were persistent, and they would always have a story.

40:08And then I would say, tell me another one. Tell me another one. I think you have a second one. Yeah, a third one. and the same thing i could do three hours totally competitive moments in our life yes and i was i just somebody just did a retrospective of me of the silicon alley days and they're like oh we heard these four stories of your magazine or whatever and i said yeah i was deranged in my competitiveness i felt that anybody who had a win that meant i had a loss when i and it was even in categories where i had yet to build a product so there was some newsletter called at new york that was a weekly and i had the biggest magazine one of the top five magazines in new york so i'm gonna report it was booming 12 million in revenue but these guys had a weekly and they would beat me to news stories and i would stare at the ceiling if they scooped me on a story it would my teeth would grind and i went to my team and i said silicon alley daily i wanted up and running today and they're like this is in 1996 or seven and they're like what is that i'm like a daily email newsletter about technology companies and they're like hey boss we need time to do this i don't give a i want it out we're starting this week first email is going out today give me a story like that's competing with the magazine i don't care we have to destroy this company and this company was like two great journalists i was psychotic in my book and then you know my co-founders are all in now you know we're like okay we have to create this conference it's got to be the greatest one ever held it's got to be better than ted it's got to be better than everything that exists in the marketplace and you know the the three compatriots i have on that are also lunatic competitors and so it's it's either you have it or you don't and it makes people uncomfortable i know but you know that's that's the weird thing about entrepreneurship i think in 2023 versus you know i guess we're i think you're a gen xer maybe you're you're i'm on the cusp but i'm a millennial you're on the cusp right you feel more gen x than millennial to me you're i'm gonna i'm gonna take you for the gen x side and the draft take it but you know it's uncomfortable for people to talk about competition for some reason today yeah with the you know uh what if you got guys got participation trophies and all this kind of stuff like throw it in the fucking garbage it's worthless your participation trophy means nothing why is this so difficult for people you think to understand that like there's winners and losers in the world I wish I understood that.

42:38I wish I knew. It's part of this culture that if I were to reflect, just, you know, there's a reaction against capitalism. And there's, you know, this, this desire that you should be able to have your cake and eat it to, you know, success and, and, and life and, you know, and it's terrible, even, you know, these are the types of areas where we could talk about where people get canceled on Twitter, you know, like, all the time. And I remember the Stripe founders, Patrick, almost sheepishly saying like, just, you know, I had we had to work really freaking hard to make Stripe a success. I don't know another way of doing it.

43:25And I'll say, though, I meet a lot of founders now, young guys and gals that are really freaking driven and obsessed. And so I think there is, you know, a snapback. I hope there is because I don't see how people build companies that matter without that drive. I mean, the world needs somebody to create innovation, great companies to move the human species forward, you know, and competition is part of that. And it's actually a beautiful, great thing. you know there there's been great moments in cinema where people were competitive each other you know scorsese and francis for coppola and all of oliver stone all that generation they wanted to one up each other spielberg george lucas they all wanted to make the next great film we saw it in poetry authors we saw it in rock and roll like people wanted to one up each other but it's a in a healthy way it you know it doesn't always have to be deranged and sociopathic and the world must move forward.

44:31AI is this incredible innovation that I don't think any of us saw, and I'm interested in your position on this. We all knew it was hard. Oh, I predicted it all, Jason. I predicted, yeah. I mean, we all predicted it's going to play a bigger and bigger role, but did any of us predict it would do that in nine months? Because here we are, we're taping this in September of 2023, and I think ChatGPT 3.5 came out in October or November. When did it come out? Last year. Yes. It has turned the entire table over in our industry. It would be as if broadband came in 1999 and everybody had it the same year.

45:09So maybe talk a little bit about how fun this is and how much it's changing everything and every pitch and every startup. Oh, gosh. How could I synthesize that? I mean, most innovation, most new experiences, new product experiences happen. usually are preceded by some technology catalyst, right? And you talked about broadband, that's a technology catalyst. Adding the camera or the GPS to the phone that you hold is technology catalyst. And so, wow. And what's also, I think, part of what is so transformative or just why it's so disruptive right now is that it used to be, I always think of it as like a color palette, like you're a paint as a founder, an entrepreneur, you're a painter and you, you know, what happens sometimes GPS gets added to the phone or a camera gets added to the phone.

46:10And all of a sudden you have this new color with which you can, you can paint a new picture, right? What, you know, of Instagram, Uber, like those are all kind of taking advantage of new colors that you have on your palette. What happened with, with large language models is that instead of it just being a color is it's, you know, metaphorically and, and, and literally giving you the picture. And, and the, the, and it just means that, that kind of the ability of so many companies then to take advantage of this technology at the same time very quickly it's it's it's remarkable and it's the type of thing where we think about natural language right if you can have this interface to this incredible powerful model that is one that every single person can easily use and understand i mean you it's just the pure democratization of that type of technology when usually it was you know through the the the kind of interface that a developer would create for you so it is it's touching everything um yeah and it's i have a punch-up for your framing for your next subsnack the palette didn't change the canvas did explain more well if you if you think about it like what you're putting all of these experiences and these features onto the whole thing has changed now where there's a there's a whole new platform that can solve the problem and you wrote a really good blog post about like augmenting people or just solving the damn problem for them yeah and i really liked your framing of this piece this is i think your best piece of the year um amongst you know good one i give this one the uh because you went to a website for business process outsourcing and this is a very interesting device you used if you go to a bpo website these are people in india manila you know knowledge workers who cost a tenth of what the knowledge worker would cost here in the u.s a fifth whatever it is yeah with globalization and they can take something that a lawyer does that's on the low end of the spectrum and just get it done and you can outsource to them just like you might be able to amazon term in a way this new canvas that we have can just do the entire thing you don't just make the lawyer at wilson cincini 10 percent or 20 percent better at doing some litigation task at doing some ip task or trademark task you can just do the task right so maybe explain your thesis here and what you're seeing um out there on the playing field sure and there's more we can you know let's bookmark just talking a little bit more about that because there's something about you know how much of the work is the large language model doing and how do you build enduring value if you're one of these companies.

49:04The thesis, you know, when you have a technology as powerful as a large language model with so much of what we talked about before, it's really a paradigm shift. And what tends to happen when you have a paradigm shift is that the first wave of companies of applications of that paradigm are in the mental model of the prior paradigm. And usually, you know, we talk about skeuomorphism as a way of describing some of what you see at a design level. And the thing I was reflecting on is that the first wave of companies leveraging large language models, or generative AI generally, were extending the mental model that we've had for the last 25 years in application software development, which is about increasing the productivity of an employee, the team collaboration, the company, the management's ability to better manage the team.

50:06But all those things are about increasing productivity. And all those companies, they were all about increasing productivity and then charging on a per seat basis that was essentially benchmarked to the price of that employee, the cost of the employee and and your ability to move you know their productivity higher and it's why an hr startup has a harder time than a developer oriented one because the hr employee is a lower cost employee generally than the the engineer and so you have we see this manifested in per seed pricing that this model has taken off per seed pricing is like hey if you're a salesperson two thousand dollars a year for salesforce if you're a developer four thousand dollars a year for this tool.

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50:54And it abstracts in some way, as you're pointing out to their salary. Correct. That's exactly right. And that actually also then has dictated where these application software companies have been built, what verticals they can go after, because you have to have a go to market that is getting software and employees hands, having those employees, you know, start to use that that software actively, whatever integrations you have to have in order to do that. and there's a certain cost to that and a certain value to the seed. And so it's meant that some verticals just haven't been penetrated by software companies, which is very hard to find right now.

51:38Right now, it's been feeling, and this is Parker Conrad's point on compound startups, is that there's been so many point solutions in SaaS now because everybody's been looking for these like little pieces of white space after the big opportunities have been taken. And so then the first generation of these startups leveraging LLMs have been in that same mental model of let's sell software to companies that increase the productivity of their employees. And, you know, the co-pilot for X idea is a reflection of that. And I don't mean to poo-poo it. It's certainly extremely valuable. The risk that I feel is that, you know, there's always this feeling of, there's an expression, the startup has to unlock distribution before the incumbent unlocks innovation.

52:33And one of the challenges with playing in this kind of extending this mental model of productivity is that you're playing the incumbents game on the incumbents turf. You know, like, who is going to be better positioned to offer this type of software to employees? It's the company that already has software they're using every day. and because of you know the analogy we described before of like the the canvas the large language model is doing so much of the work to create the step function change in productivity for the employee that it's been incredibly simple for incumbents to add this type of productivity improvement and you know go ahead no i just noticed it today because i use a wonderful piece of software called speechify uh and uh gwyneth paltrow's voice is in it she's an investor she told us something on summit and um i can take a new york times article that hasn't been you know and i can just listen to it in obama's voice or gwyneth paltrow's voice whatever it is and that's better for me if i'm walking around or my eyes are hurt from too much screen time uh and i noticed today in the app it said summarize this article with ai now i would normally do that by opening up chat gpt4 or bard and putting in the url now it's there so and then uh notion uh in coda which i love both of those products and we use them at all my companies that has it and then i just saw at dreamforce last week that slack is going to have and they've been the slowest of everybody i mean my god that company's product velocity is horrific right now um they really got to benioff's got to you know uh really get somebody down into the the trenches there and get slack uh grinding again but they added something that will summarize all your what you missed you know while you were away here's what happened on slack you know the little catch up when you watch the next episode of your favorite streaming show like i need that if i'm off for two days or something or i'm off for 10 hours i love that little uh recap but just that that colpally to your point it's de minimis to add it to any product so it's it is and so startups must do more what must they do yeah yeah they have to do more and there's um what i think about and you know i wrote in my blog posts even up is just probably the best example i've seen of this so far is don't play you know in a way you always are looking for if you're a subscale startup you're looking for the jujitsu move and what's the jujitsu move it there's an element of the monetization model of these incumbents being on a per seat basis is is an achilles heel it's a vulnerability you can take advantage of um but you also kind of think about it as like there's There are some verticals, some areas where actually, if you leverage a large language model, you can pick off work products, you can pick off something that you usually need a human to do.

55:50But it's transactional enough. It's kind of more of a repeat, oh yeah, thank you, a rinse and repeat thing that you do that leverages some of what large language models are so good at. If you can find those work products and then translate that into a product that you sell, a work product that you sell to a customer, then you're going to be better off. And so let's take even up as an example here on the screen, even up perfect law.com if you want to go check it out and play along at home. So these guys are, you know, incredible. And I talked about them in my post because I feel like they are well on their way to escaping competition.

56:37So what happens when you're a personal, God forbid any of you ever have to hire a personal injury lawyer. My mom had to, she got bit by a dog. And what happens is that you hire a personal injury lawyer, they get a contingency of a third of whatever your settlement is from the insurer. And my mom gave her personal injury lawyer all her medical records. You talk about pain and suffering, lost wages, whatever it is. And then what the lawyer does is they summarize all the medical records into something called a demand letter. And the demand letter is a summary of the case, you know, loss, like everything, and then has a demand on what they think the settlement should be.

57:27Now, this is a work product that personal injury lawyers who are super busy spread across so many things are usually trying to fit time into their schedule to get done. And what he even realized is that they could use different techniques, including LLMs, to automate the creation of these letters. And they sell that to a personal injury lawyer on a, you know, on a, think of it as, as if you were selling it on a per demand letter basis. And it's a completely different paradigm of selling the go to market, you know, I'm just selling a product. You send me the medical records, we'll give you the finished product.

58:14The pricing then is based basically as, you know, you think about it not as a productivity improvement, 15 % productivity improvement. You think of it as like a 95 % productivity improvement. Yes. And what would the cost of the headcount have been if they were having to do it themselves? You know, it's a pretty simple thing to do. company like this as well and so you you can't sell it on a per piece per seat basis correct because this can do an infinite number of them uh and so selling it on a per report basis makes more sense and if your cost to do it internally was 10 hours of a person's time at 40 bucks an hour that's 400 hey we'll do it for 50 we'll do it for 100 whatever it is that's right and if you have 10 this month great if you have a busy month next month you have 30 great but you're not paying for seats that makes no sense we're just going to charge you five or ten percent of whatever your cost is i'm making that up but you see this in other arduous painful jobs and there are white collar jobs that are repetitive arduous and nobody wants sdr comes to mind sales development rep you're in sdr you got to get leads you got to warm them up perfect job for ai lead iq is the company we have that's doing this kind of thing and i think everybody's got to just start thinking about these businesses and maybe a new business model and proceed business may, you know, work for some co-pilots and stuff like that.

59:37But that could be a big change, huh? And it's, you know, it's so interesting to me to think about what EvenUp could have done. They could have sold software and instead selling the work product. You know, when you think about personal injury lawyers, it's not exactly like there's a software company that's going after that, you know? So they have changed the equation on a market that wouldn't have otherwise been profitable to go after. But when you change the product that you sell, and instead of selling software, you sell work, you actually open up markets that wouldn't have otherwise been viable for a software company.

1:00:20And that creates blue ocean opportunities for stars to go after. It just clicked for me. There's not enough seats to sell. but there are enough reports to run so we're changing um our perspective on what's possible you're not just because again you go into personal injury attorney paralegals or assistants or whoever's doing this work how many of those are there how much do they get paid what is 10 percent of making them more efficient right it's a blue ocean uh opportunity startups see you know were able to launch for a fraction a fraction of the cost uh of startups just a decade earlier when the cloud came out um and startups that weren't even possible uh like youtube uh maybe instagram you know these type of um dropbox comes to mind as well they required massive storage was expensive bandwidth was expensive uh and even processing power and cameras were expensive if you wanted to do a filter on a photo my god photoshop and a powerful macbook pro is what was necessary and then maybe you got to get the creative suite from adobe and then instagram abstracts it into a phone smartphone wow incredible so i guess my question to you is you see startups needing less money to achieve greater goals and then what does that do for your business uh as a series a investor oh i would like to correct the record i'm not seeing startups need less money not i mean if If you were to compare in 2021, but if you were to look at a regression over the last 10 years, it feels like even there's a lot of companies right now that are playing with large language models that think that they have to eventually train their own model to fine tune.

1:02:12That's not cheap. And so, yeah, go ahead. Well, as I said, yeah, it takes a lot of big iron at this moment in time, but we did see cloud computing lower the cost of having to buy a million dollars in servers, right? I guess I'll, I think it's a good point because those AI companies are an exception, but the average startup, might they need less developers if developers are going to be more, you know, effective at what they do? Or is it just going to be steady state? They'll just redeploy that money into marketing or something. what i see is that the average round is larger now than it was in 2018 and you know there's more companies more competition more venture capitalists with bigger and bigger funds yeah that seems to be a big driver it's a big driver and then of course like a lot of these ai companies like we are still so early or so early and one of the things that you know i see is that a lot of the tooling that you rely on when you're as an application developer to be able to build and scale something still hasn't been built.

1:03:23And so a lot of these companies are having to recreate the wheel on a lot of different things in order to try to leverage large language models in a production system. An example of this, the model, the underlying model that you use is changing. You know, you don't control if you're using open AI, you know, there's there's something that can shift beneath your feet all the time, or there's the own work that you're doing to fine tune that can have so many downstream effects that are harder to anticipate. And so you build kind of test queries, as an example, that you use to then understand is the experience that my users are getting from the large language model consistent with what we've had in the past.

1:04:16And so these are things that you kind of have to build from the ground up, the human evaluation, how are you going to get a human in the loop on a lot of these things. and it's all all pieces that companies have to build from the ground up right now in order to deliver on an application experience and that takes engineers um and so there's just a lot of investment that still has to happen in these companies how does uh benchmark or how have you stayed competitive in a world in which there's many more venture capitalists many more people trying to get to the series a stage uh you know when bill was at the firm you know whatever 10 years ago like 20 years ago even it seemed like a much different playing field now you're you're you're not just competing with sequoia and kleiner and whatever you know little clubby sandhill road uh you know hop that founders could do you got funding from sovereign wealth ones who want to invest direct you got people all over the globe competing you've got all these new funds competing and let's face it people are running up the valuations because they don't have reputation so what they do is they will offer more money than benchmark they can't beat you on reputation or track record they can beat you on price so how do you maintain discipline when you know people are running up the price versus you in competitive deals how do you think about it you're close with bill you know how he says you always play the game on the field.

1:05:45I'd say, though, that part of my answer to that, and part of the conversation we always have with founders, and you know, in the very beginning of this conversation, you talked about how one of the selection biases I hope I have, is a founder who's thinking, you know, a decade out working backwards from there. And there are founders for whom getting the cheapest capital at that financing and like, great, if there's no board seat, even better. There's some founders for whom that's the right fit. We don't need to play for that founder. What we want is the founder who is going to be thinking about that decision on a decade-long journey that they're going to go on and that they want to build the best because they're that competitive person who knows that they don't have all the answers, that wants to be surrounded by the best people they possibly can be at every step in the way.

1:06:48What's the partner look like that they can work with through that journey? and and so it's not looking at it just as an optimization for that round it's an optimization over the course of the journey that you're going to be going on and that calculus for the founder for whom we want to serve and and attract uh tends to be a clearer decision yeah i i have my own filter for this as well it's like if you're going to argue over meaningless points in standard documents and we have a discussion about like i've gotten back the standard documents with you probably had this happen you know 20 changes in them and you're like well why are we not using the standard documents and you know all these changes to these documents are going to screw up the next round it's not actually in your best interest i mean forget about like you're taking away some of our rights whatever as investors we can debate whether those are important or not but the next set of investors is going to want the same thing so now you're gonna have this battle again and then what does it say about a founder who doesn't want to build proper governance in company and doesn't care about who's on the cap table that's a level of um you know um myopic thinking and optimization that is likely going to send them off a cliff because a lot of times the people who would take that deal are stupid or they're as cutthroat and then now you got two people with myopic thinking and cutthroat thinking on the same cap table the person who's like i know i'm overpaying i know i don't have rights but screw it i need to get into this deal and then this founders got this cut their thing like what is that what is that company going to look like in three or four years i mean you didn't say it as it can be challenging but and look like you know at the end of the day like the reality is is that in the opportunities that we you know are spent time with the founders that we're getting to know I don't think I've ever seen one of these like sovereign wealth or, you know, big multi-stage firms.

1:08:54Yeah, it's never come up. And there's probably some filter that happens before we even see it of, you know, the founders that want, you know, a partner and with whom we end up really wanting to serve and the vision that they have. they're already thinking about the game a little differently. Yeah, the strategics. I'm curious how often you see those come in. But man, when I see them come in, I'm just like, red flag, red flag. Like this person, these strategics, man, they cause so much problem if they get in too early. Too early can be tricky. Explain why to people who, you know, a founder who for the first time has some, you know, big handset manufacturer or you know social network want to own shares in their company at the series b you know and they want to do the round instead of a you know classic financial interested party explain why that is it's a few things um number one it's like you know at the end of the day do you want to do you want a partner at the board who is going to be you know thinking about the only the company and it's you know what's best for the company working backwards from there or you're going to want someone on your board who has this other incentive structure usually um because of whatever organization they're part of that ends up affecting kind of the the counsel that you get from that from the partner the second you know Well, it's kind of related, which is I remember when I was at Pinterest, we, you know, one of my first jobs at Pinterest actually was to close our Series C financing, which was with Rakuten.

1:10:52And Rakuten's an incredible Japanese conglomerate. And then like my next job was, you know, localizing Pinterest. We were only in English. and and so what were the first first languages that we were going to support japan is a very unique world right there's a little bit of a galapagos effect there in terms of kind of consumer social and so there was this you know influence you know small kind of on the scale of which countries to launch first this you know light thumb pushing on japan you know You know, and there's no question we pulled forward Japan, in my recollection, we pulled forward Japan ahead of when we would have otherwise done it, because we had Rakuten saying, you know, let's do Japan.

1:11:47We're excited to support you. We'll help you in all these ways. And it's a very subtle thing. But, you know, these, you know, building a company is already difficult enough. And when you add any distortion in your decision making to serve a third party that you might not have to otherwise have served, it creates some challenges. And then the last thing is always just the complexity that it creates when you're thinking about M &A. You know, and we could, you know, open. Well, I mean, in that case with Pinterest, if you were going to sell the company, it went and IPO, obviously, but if you were going to sell it, Roccatan would be like, okay, we'd like to buy it.

1:12:30And okay, well, what's the price for them? And they're on the board. And then who are the other buyers? Just the nature that there are other buyers would tip off Roccatan and make them be able to compete better in the bidding process. Right. So now you've distorted the bidding process. Right. And it's what acquirers worry about is, oh, there's a strategic, they probably have a right of first notification. And so if I spend all this work, do all this work internally to get people excited about this acquisition, and then I make an offer and they tell their strategic investor and then they counter, was I just a stocking horse?

1:13:09And so there's a little bit of that effect that you have to neutralize. And to translate the first point you made for the audience, the compensation you and I get as being fund managers, GPs, general partners in a fund. Well, you guys get 25, 30 % because your benchmark, I get 25%. And then most get 2 and 20, and it's management fees and 20 % carry. What that means is your stock price goes up in Pinterest or whatever startup it is, Uber. we only do as well as your stock price does and oh by the way you have stock price too oh you have you have shares as well okay all of our shares go up we all win equally now you get somebody who's on it they're the vp of biz dev corporate development at some big company they're just trying to make the board and the ceo happy that's how they get a raise and a bonus they don't get 20 or 25 or 30 percent of the increase in our share price value they get some strategic value from this and then they're taking their product roadmap your product roadmap and then they're putting them up on a board and saying when does this company hit our strategic interest and now you're i'll add that as a fourth which is when do these things start overlapping or competing against each other and rocket hands like you know what we learned so much on this board that on our e-commerce site we added a share button but don't worry just a share button right and then oh you know what but you can share multiple things so we just made a profile page with a couple of things you've shared before but it's not competitive and then oh yeah now we make collections but they're not called boards but they're yes they're collections yes you know you're right to highlight this amazon was in particular notorious for these types of moves in the beginning yeah and then lena khan came along and wrote her thesis on why amazon is horrible uh what's happening with mna in the era of lena khan and the eu basically saying whatever you want we're going to say no just because we hate we hate tax so by all means you know we don't give a uh we don't care uh we put an expletive there but we don't care expletive of your choice uh what the law says we're just interpreting tax m and a equals bad and we don't even care that it's great for a consumer that these companies would be part of the same group but some maybe some relief with Microsoft winning their case and offering more to consumers than was asked, right?

1:15:32They're like, yeah, you can be on Xbox or whatever, we don't care. So maybe talk about your thoughts on that. What's the back channel in our industry on M &A? You know, I think a lot of people are watching what happens with Figma and wondering what's going to go on there. You know, I think the bigger challenge is that you have most public companies that would be acquirers still in a bit of a defensive crouch. You know, like, there is still this transition that a lot of companies are going through where there's a little bit more defensiveness in their posture as opposed to thinking offensively of what are the moves that we can make to really, you know, expand our opportunity.

1:16:14And it's a natural, you know, aftershock or kind of effect of just this change in the interest rate environment and all the subtle things that that tends to affect. And every decision to make an investment is just much more expensive than it used to be. And so I feel like that's the bigger thing. You're starting to see some more offensive moves, more kind of people thinking more about the future as opposed to reacting to some of the decisions they felt like they maybe made in the past that got them into overhiring, being the big one. But we're still thawing from that. Yeah. We had Whoop on the show this summer.

1:17:05Met with Amazon. Wanted to invest. passed on investing after meeting with them and then wound up launching competing products that's episode 1786 1786 for super fans who want to double click on it do you think about macro as an investor or do you just think great founders product market fit company building you know we obviously are affected by the macro like you know all of our companies that we're invested in can't ignore it, but ultimately, you're investing in a great founder who sees something other people don't see. If there was, you know, I, there, maybe the one thing that you do feel is certainly, I think it may have been Bill who said this, that you can almost feel how much you're into a bull market by the gross margin of the startups that people are investing in.

1:18:05And certainly with the zero rate environment, the bull market, you've tolerated lower and lower gross margin businesses. That's not the case today. You're, you know, I can't tell you how many companies I meet now, where on their slide, they talk about burn ratio, you know, how much did they have to burn in order to get to the ARR, let's call it, that they're at now. And I love that people are thinking that way. Like it's healthy, we kind of, it's so healthy, you know, ultimately, this is, you know, what, what startup businesses should be venture businesses are opportunities where you can take small amount of capital and have a huge multiple of like, value that you drive from that.

1:18:54And we got we lost that a little bit over the last few years and so now people are really coming back to it my big trio cpg becoming a venture business like really i'm not so sure about this one yeah i mean there could be differentiated products that have technology in them i think eight sleep falls into that category very you know high risk margin business but then like 15 minute delivery like okay nobody needs to 15 minute delivery like even if i forgot my shaving cream like i actually don't eat 15 minute like yes uber eats delivers doordash delivers grocery stuff like one hour just fine 45 minutes just fine 15 minutes like what am i just very few things that somebody needs in 15 minutes uh yeah and then yeah of course like buzzfeed is worth like 50 million dollars right now and it you know like who is investing in a media company listen i'm a media guy i love media i build many businesses it's no media businesses are for people who are passionate about it who want to build a 10 20 30 40 million dollar a year business if you love it great or if you're a rich person you're bezos and you want to own or you're benioff you want to own time magazine or washington post or i guess um lorraine powell now owns the atlantic you know like if you love it and it's like you know owning a hotel or resort you know kind of thing and great it's a bespoke you know business for you but that is not where we should be spending our time there's no gross margin in those businesses all right sarah it's been an hour plus sarah tavo read her substack to sarah tavo oh and you know i asked you about your portfolio you never want to talk about your companies well let's go well why don't you want to talk about your investments you're trying to keep them stealth or you just don't want to be taking credit for them what you're thinking here?

1:20:40I, I think 99 times out of 100, announcing a financing serves the ego of the investor over the purpose of the company. And, you know, especially, you know, I'm a student of dominating competition, right? Like, how do you build one of those businesses that, you know, isn't just number one in a pack, but like number one by a mile. I have this Usain Bolt image that I love on my Twitter. And there are very few things you get out of doing an announcement at the very early stages of a company, besides educating people who are thinking about what they want to start yes yes and and you know i i could imagine someone saying and and by the way the other big thing for it is that it catalyzes incumbents to compete with you you know like i you know i i hate hype i think hype hurts companies so much and i can't help but think about kind of the clubhouse early days where yes this small company small team incredible founders trying to build something and the hype cycle that got created around clubhouse was so great that it catalyzed twitter that twitter is not a company that builds things quickly and wow holy cow was that activating to Twitter, that hype felt existential to Twitter.

1:22:20And it got them to act and added, you know, spaces to Twitter, Spotify, all these people, and here we are. And so it's just particularly in consumer social hype is the worst thing. But generally, and especially in this world we live in now, where it's so much incumbents are not fools, They are moving really quickly. They are innovating. And I would rather keep something a secret as long as we possibly can and then surprise people than pound my chest about the company. I like Super Great, though. Can I mention Super Great? I love those guys. I love those guys. What is it? Why did you make that investment?

1:22:59For me, the first thing was the founders, which is Tyler and Dan. just incredible founders whom had a great partnership were you know really committed to what they were doing and had a unique point of view um to what they want to do uh with super great and the second thing was i think there was a you know a little bit of unfinished business for me but from pinterest which was like pinterest was this ugc site but you couldn't control what people brought into Pinterest. It was, you know, and so you would click through on a pin, and it could be to, you know, a dead link or whatever it was. And so it made it difficult for Pinterest to get into commerce.

1:23:43Because you didn't, you never trained the users. Never knew what you're gonna get. Yeah, you never really trained the users to trust clicking through, I think. And super great was 100 % products and a UGC site around that. And makeup and beauty, it's awesome. Around beauty. And what was cool about beauty is that super long tail of products, you know, the Shopify world has made it so that there's like so much more fragmentation, new brands coming around all the time, high gross margin products, easy to ship, and felt like there was an opportunity to build something. Awesome. an hour and a half but sarah taval uh will you come back next year can i get you can i get you to bring you for next year all right that's all i ask this is my new thing with my all stars i just say hey one year from now because you'll make that commitment and i'll my team will hold you to it now the audience is in on it so they can't wait for september 2024 to get an update from sarah you're amazing to see you and we'll see you next time bye-bye awesome thanks jason

1:24:52Thank you.

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Today's show:

Benchmark's Sarah Tavel joins Jason to discuss the state of VC (1:57), her time at Benchmark (13:33), her recent Substack blogs (31:51), AI's impact on startups (44:31), and much more!

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Time stamps:

(0:00) Benchmark's Sarah Tavel joins Jason

(1:57) The state of VC and the biggest things founders have had to contend with

(12:08) Miro - Sign up for a free account at https://miro.com/startups

(13:33) Benchmark's culture

(21:35) Evolving trends in VC

(24:37) Vanta - Get $1000 off your SOC 2 at https://vanta.com/twist

(25:45) Tradeoffs and common VC mistakes

(31:51) Sarah's Substack blogs and the inspiration behind her writing

(35:42) Mercury - Join 100K+ startups banking with Mercury at http://mercury.com

(36:54) Entrepreneurship in 2023 and the importance of a founder's long-term vision

(44:31) Technology catalysts and how AI is impacting startups

(58:36) Business models, the amount of developers needed, and navigating funding rounds

(1:04:42) The complexities of strategic partnerships and corporate VC

(1:14:54) M&A in the era of Lina Kahn and looking at the macro picture as an investor

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Follow Sarah: https://twitter.com/sarahtavel

Check out Sarah's Substack: https://www.sarahtavel.com

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