Google, Microsoft, and Snap earnings, plus the state of VC in the Middle East | E1834

25 Oct 2023 · 58 min

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Episode Summary: Google, Microsoft, and Snap Earnings, Plus the State of VC in the Middle East | E1834

Podcast Title: This Week in Startups Host: Jason Calacanis Episode Date: October 2023 Duration: Approximately 1 hour 19 minutes

Episode Overview In this episode, Jason Calacanis discusses the latest earnings reports for Google, Microsoft, and Snap, providing insights into their financial performances. He also explores the burgeoning venture capital landscape in the Middle East, focusing on the progress and potential of the region's startup ecosystem.

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Key Topics Discussed

  1. The State of Venture Capital in the Middle East (1:34)
  2. Significant Growth: Jason notes a rapid transformation in Saudi Arabia and the UAE's venture capital landscape over the past few years.
  3. Cultural Changes: Emphasis on social changes, including increased freedoms and opportunities for entrepreneurship.
  4. Predictions: Jason predicts that the Middle East will become the second-largest global player in venture capital in the next decade.
  5. Family Offices: Discussion about how family businesses in the region are increasingly investing in venture capital, transitioning from traditional sectors to tech startups.
  1. Earnings Reports Breakdown (18:12)

Google Q3 Earnings

  • Revenue: $76.7 billion, up 11% year-over-year.
  • Net Income: $19.7 billion, up 41% year-over-year.
  • Challenges: Stock fell 8% due to missed cloud revenue expectations despite overall strong performance.

Microsoft Q3 Earnings

  • Revenue: $56.5 billion, up 13% year-over-year.
  • Net Income: $22.3 billion, up 27% year-over-year.
  • Key Highlights: Azure grew 29% year-over-year, showcasing Microsoft's strong position in AI.

Snap Q3 Earnings

  • Revenue: $1.2 billion, up 5% year-over-year.
  • Daily Active Users (DAUs): 406 million, up 12%.
  • Concerns: Continued losses and strategic decisions aimed at turnaround remain in focus.
  1. Analysis of Snap's Position
  2. Market Strategy: Discussion around Snap's user engagement metrics and AI integration.
  3. Financial Health: Noted concerns regarding Snap's persistent losses and management's choice to prioritize growth over immediate profitability.
  1. Graycroft Layoffs and VC Landscape (44:56)
  2. Layoffs: Graycroft laid off five staff members as part of a strategic restructuring to focus on AI investments.
  3. Misinterpretation: Jason critiques media narratives portraying these layoffs as signs of distress, arguing it reflects a strategic refocus instead.
  4. Investment Emphasis: Shift towards AI within the venture capital strategies of firms like Graycroft is emphasized as a positive move.

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Key Takeaways

  • Middle East VC Growth: The region is on the cusp of a significant venture capital evolution, with predictions of becoming the second-largest player globally.
  • Earnings Reports: Despite strong earnings from Google and Microsoft, market reactions highlight the challenges these tech giants face in the competitive landscape, especially in cloud services.
  • Snap's Struggles: Snap continues to grapple with profitability issues, prompting discussions on its strategic direction and user engagement tactics.
  • Restructuring in VC: Layoffs in prominent firms can signal strategic shifts rather than weakness, emphasizing the need for agility in an evolving market.

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Sponsors

  • Embroker: Provides startup insurance programs.
  • CLA: Offers CPA and consulting services tailored for startups.
  • IntouchCX: Provides AI-powered customer experience tools.

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Conclusion This episode of *This Week in Startups* provides valuable insights into the current state of major tech companies and the evolving landscape of venture capital in the Middle East. Jason's analysis sheds light on the potential for growth and innovation in this dynamic region while also highlighting the challenges faced by established tech giants in maintaining profitability and market leadership.

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Transcript

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0:00they painted this as if graycroft is like struggling or it's some kind of train wreck. i can assure you this is like a sign of actual strength what they should be saying is rakov has the chutzpah despite having 25 million dollars a year in fees on their billion dollars they have the chutzpah to let go of a couple people and refocus and add some people and you know make some trades for their team this is like trading you know a starter you know on your team and like two of your bench players rotation players to get slightly better you know a slightly better starter and a couple of better rotation players.

0:36This is far from a sign of weakness. This Week in Startups is brought to you by Embroker's Startup Insurance Program helps startups secure the most important types of insurance at a lower cost and with less hassle. Save up to 20 % off of traditional insurance today at Embroker.com slash twist. While you're there, get an extra 10 % off using offer code twist. CLA. Innovation takes balance. That's CLA's CPAs, consultants, and wealth advisors can help you get from startup to where you want to end up. Get started now at claconnect.com slash tech. And InTouchCX. Is your startup entering a new stage of growth?

1:22InTouchCX offers AI-powered automated solutions designed to help you scale smarter. Visit intouchcx.com slash twist to build your custom strategy.

1:58and I'm sure producer Nick who's going to come here and read the news with me today will have some questions but let's get started while I've been here on my trip to UAE and to Saudi. There's been a lot of news breaking huh Nick? There has yeah. Can I ask you a quick question about your trip first of all? Of course. Before we even get into anything. So did you when you went did you take Emirates? Did you fly Emirates? I did. I did. Now you're aware of Emirates. Yes, I've heard that Emirates first class, the highest level you can get a first class is actually better and more comfortable and more luxurious than chartering your own small jet in the US.

2:36I've heard that. That's a rumor. Yes, that is true. I flew business class. The first class tickets, because there were two conferences going on. There's a Saudi conference, FII. And then there was essentially what's a CES of the region going on in Dubai the week before. So all the tickets have been sold out. And so I looked at a first class ticket. There were so few left. It was$25 ,000 round trip. And so that's a no for me. yeah the uh business class ticket wasn't cheap either it was nine thousand dollars round trip usually i think it's more like six but um there's a direct flight from san francisco to dubai and it takes uh i think 15 hours so but luckily my jet lag was great i've gotten used to this flight uh and you know i'm just learning a ton here in the region it's interesting time to be here obviously with all the tragedy going on and this war um and uh i've been speaking with many people who are palestinian i've been speaking with many people who uh are from both sides and uh it's uh been enlightening but the changes that have occurred over here in the region uh have had me have caused me to really underwrite everything i know about saudi arabia um now i know uae and dubai have been incredibly progressive and changed a ton um but but that's a 20-year story what's happened here in saudi is like a four-year story um and what's happened here is nothing short of amazing the amount of freedoms the the what's happened in terms of the economy and people starting companies and the social change uh they told me if i see it three or four years ago there wouldn't have been music um dancing uh women in meetings um and uh you know just the whole society is uh really changed dramatically uh in a very short period of time so it's very encouraging and the people here are some of the most hospitable warmest people ever they are almost universally listened to all in and all the founders and and vcs listen to this week and startups obviously so i got a uh an incredible welcome here the food's been amazing and i've learned a ton we don't have any business interests here at the moment um but i'm i'll make an announcement here and this is you're going to hear it for the first time i am uh going to build a partnership to bring this week in startups to the region.

5:01I'm so excited about the startups here. And there have been a number of unicorns. You may have heard of Kareem, you know, that Uber bought for a couple billion dollars. And the ecosystem is very strong between Egypt, Jordan, Saudi, UAE, Kuwait. So it's really exciting for me. It reminds me a lot of the ecosystem I saw emerge in Stockholm and Australia over the last, say 15-20 years with Atlassian. We had Scott on recently, you remember. uh and then of course you know uh sweden with uh daniel ak who's been on the program from spotify on soon oh yeah we've been back and forth and uh great guest okay so anyway uh any other questions about the trip or the region or are you away for all in no nothing i'm good it sounds great that's interesting the big thing i've learned nick is um their commitment to venture capital is going to make them number two i'm going to make the prediction right now here on the uh what the hell is going on with your screen i i put up the number two i said i'm gonna make the prediction here i wonder what that was i did something with the ai and it made balloons go by i'm gonna make a prediction right now and i put up the number two in two um i think the region when and when you say the region you know middle east region mina um i think this is going to be the number two player in venture capital within 10 years And that's a big statement.

6:23Now, when you say number two player, do you mean in terms of LP commitments or do you mean in terms of actual firms investing in startups? Yeah, I think it's going to be both. And that's a really astute point. You kind of got right to the heart of this. I've been meeting with a lot of the family offices here. So in Saudi and UAE, what you'll have is family offices. And these families would have built some incredible business 56 years ago. And it's not just in oil and gas. It might be a money exchange. It might be, you know, in being the Pepsi bottler in the region, etc. And so you meet these family offices, and they were in these like grinded out, absurdly operational businesses, then they made money.

7:08And then these families will, they really are family businesses where generation after generation participate in the operating these businesses, then they make a little bit of money, and they maybe will open up Toyota dealerships, as but one example, McDonald's, Starbucks, whatever, they become the local partners of those, then they might do real estate. And then they the private equity people have been coming to the region to raise large amounts of capital to go buy other businesses around the world. So they learned about private equity. And then at some point, you know, if you go down the private equity rabbit hole, you eventually like wonder where these private equity come, but where are the companies coming from that private equity buys?

7:46Oh, sometimes they're public companies, sometimes they're venture capital based companies. Then you watch the venture capital companies, then they eventually will work with a partner like Stepstone, which is a consultancy that will help them get access to venture firms. It's traditionally been hard to get access to venture firms. So they invest in venture firms through a fund of funds. Right. So they'll give money to a fund of funds. That fund of funds would give money to somebody like me or another venture firm. Like Sendana is a fund of funds. Yes. Correct. A dream spring. That invests in other venture firms.

8:18Exactly. And so then they might directly invest in a manager like myself, and then they might do co invest. So they would look at something coming out of launches portfolio or, you know, I don't know, Chamath or Sachs is portfolio and they might say, Oh, we'll co invest in that. So you invested in the A and the B will confess in the C, right? So they get to make like a direct investment get on the captain with not join the board, not pick the company, the GP and a venture firm that they're in would give them that guidance. and then eventually they start their own firms. And so Sonobil, which is a venture capital firm here in the kingdom, or a fund of funds in the kingdom that invest in venture capital and Mubatala have both opened offices in San Francisco.

8:56So then you kind of see the end game coming, which is they're going to be investing directly in startups alongside us. And we'll be in board meetings in the US, in Europe, and people in the region will be represented on those boards. And overall company building, is hope, right? And I think when people build companies together, there's always that McDonald's rule. People who, you know, if you have a McDonald's in your country, they don't go to war, was I think something Thomas Friedman came up with. And there's something to, you know, companies and countries that work together, you know, being able to collaborate on a lot of different things.

9:33And that's what I'm really excited about is, I think, you know, especially at a time like this time, if people are building companies together, it's pretty fantastic. uh and i think that kind of collaboration investing in companies building companies and so that's why i want to do like a 12 episode series of this week in startups in 2024 from the region interview the vcs here interview the top companies and just educate people in the u.s as to what's going on here and share information directly over podcasts right as opposed to through cnn or al jazeera or new york times or times of london like maybe just get people direct to the founders, direct to the venture capitalists and just create that bridge of understanding because it's no different than in the United States, if I'm being totally honest.

10:15Can I ask you one more question about the region? Sure. So what is the founder ecosystem like? Great question. Because I read, and this is specifically just the other day I was reading, there was a thread on Twitter on X about how it is so hard to build and scale a startup with all of the EU regulations right now. And somebody basically took through the process. I think they were referencing like, okay, here's what it's like being a normal German founder. You get your advanced degree, then you get a grant from your school, non-dilutive, and you're like, this is amazing. And then it takes you three years of building the product to get through all of the EU licenses and everything that you have to apply for to even be able to sell a product to people.

10:57And then by the time you're done with that, you're like, okay, we can raise money. But then since you've had so little progress during that time, you raise like a really dilutive round, like a seed round and then all of a sudden you're like six years in you're 34 years old and you're like yeah it's brutal oh my god this is terrible so do you think that there's going to be a pipeline of founders from sort of the europe region that are like wow it's way easier to build a startup in maybe already happening so yeah once again you've um made a great observation and then to fill you in uh in dubai and the uae they have something called a golden visa they will give you a visa for 10 years, like if you're coming here and there's no tax.

11:35So people from Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia, Australia, and Europe are coming here and they're headquartering their companies here. So just think about how amazing that is no tax. Then to add to it, Saudis and Dubai and Abu Dhabi are creating programs where they'll give a founder who moves their company here, or grant might be 100k or it might be a free office space uh and i'm actually in an office space here in riad called the garage and this house is 150 startups this is like what take the take the three or four largest we works you've ever seen and put them together that's the garage it's unbelievable i mean when i say there's 150 startups here it's nuts uh and so they will give you a free office space they'll uh give you a grant perhaps uh and they'll pay for your apartment in some cases so if you're a founder imagine basically having you know whatever a quarter million dollars worth of expense and then everybody gets a golden visa and you don't have to pay tax so for startups it would be like having y combinator and launch accelerator investing your company and giving you an apartment you know like it's quite alluring for startups and so uh It may not, maybe not for US startups coming here, you know, that's a big trip to make.

12:51But for Europeans, for people in India, and for people in Asia, it's a very easy trip. You know, Dubai is two hours away from India, and Saudis, and Saudis two hours from Dubai. So everything is right. There's 4 billion people within, you know, a couple of hours flight of Dubai and Riyadh. So these are very, very close to a large number of people. The customer bases here are pretty variable. UAE is a tiny country. Saudi is$35 million. Egypt is$100 million. Egypt has a lower amount of revenue and income per person, but they do adapt technologies quite quickly. And then Saudi is like unbelievable revenue per customer.

13:34UAE is unbelievable revenue per customer. So the most profitable places in ride sharing and food delivery, UAE and Saudi. These businesses are profitable. I'm at a buy now, pay later company, profitable out of the gate here. So the companies here can get profitable very quickly because the customers are so well healed and they do have big average revenue per user. One last question about Saudi. Sure. Since you've been there, have you heard any on the ground whispers of the line? There is Neom, which is essentially a new city they're building from scratch. They just opened the first hotel there.

14:11They invited me to go. obviously I have to get back to my family and I've been here for quite a quite a trip almost two weeks um so the line is like second decade of Neom Neom is going to be a new city that they're building on the water and this is like beautiful ocean so it's essentially going to be you know Saudis Dubai or just a new city from scratch and then they build special zones within these that are culturally more like the west so as an example in dubai they have a news zone a media zone where media can go and operate freely uh and then in dubai they obviously have alcohol um you know in saudi they don't have alcohol yet but there's rumors uh and there's been a lot of talking read about in the press that maybe in neom because that's going to be a tourist destination and tourism so big maybe that would have alcohol or wine even in um uae they're going to have a wind casino outside of dubai like two hours out side of it so you know that it's becoming in terms of personal freedoms and culture you know this is more change in the last three or four years than in a hundred it's it's pretty extraordinary uh what's happening here and so i'm really excited to see the massive positive change and again you know not to be cynical or anything i have no business interest over here i just had an interest in learning right and um i think the next step for me is to maybe do a 12-episode run here of podcasts and then share with you what's going on here.

15:41And everybody's over here. Jared Kushner's here. I saw him. Every fund manager, tons of startups are here. I ran into everybody while I was in Dubai and Riyadh. And it's pretty amazing the business deals that are going down and how active everybody is. That's great. Well, while you were doing that, I grew a mustache to annoy my wife um oh yeah well and also your boss so well accomplished i don't know who looks more ridiculous me with these bono glasses or you with that mustache you know i was put us together both our wives hate us yeah i was going for brad pitt and inglorious bastards but i think i'm more like for pedro so you know no i got the brad pitt one i think i think you're pulling it off yeah i think so you're definitely not brad pitt on the uh roof and once upon a time in hollywood fixing the antenna but i need much more chiseled jaw much more blonde hair pretty gratuitous scene huh he's like you know what i'm up there on the roof i might as well take my shirt off and have a beer yeah i think tarantino was just kind of letting him fly on that one he's like let's just go be a movie star and he did a good job yeah do it yeah all right listen we work with super early stage companies at my investment firm it's called launch i'm talking pre-series a right we're talking seed stage friends and family and you know what at that stage maybe they don't have insurance yet.

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17:33It's easy peasy, lemon squeezy. And if you're not getting insurance, you know, at some point, you're going to have to get it. So let's make that point today. Right now, this weekend, tonight, just go to Embroker today with the code TWIST, and you'll get 10 % off their startup package. how do you get the startup package in broker.com slash twist that's e-m-b-r-o-k-e-r.com slash twist make sure you use that code twist for 10 off that also more importantly than getting the 10 off that shows them that you're listening to this week in startups so we love and broker uh they've been amazing in terms of supporting our founders for years and of course this very podcast great job and broker.

18:12Anyway, back to some tech stuff. Shout out to T. We had, yeah, we had Google, Microsoft and Snap report earnings yesterday, yesterday being Tuesday. For Microsoft and Google, both had strong overall performances, but Google's actually down 8 % on the day. And basically it was a tale of two different cloud businesses. So let's do Google first. Google beat on overall analyst estimates for both its top line and its bottom line. It had its first double digit year over year revenue increase in over a year. They were up 11 % to$76.7 billion, but they missed on cloud revenue expectations. So the stock is right now down more than 8%.

18:53Market cap is still 1.6 trillion. And if you just want to go through quickly, I'll list them off. Q3 revenue, 76.7 billion, up 11 % year over year, up 3 % quarter over quarter. Net income, 19.7 billion, up 41 % year over year, up 7 % quarter over quarter. And specifically - So that - Yeah, go ahead. Is going to be based on lowering the staff size, the layoffs, cutting costs, right? Yeah, they're down about 10 ,000 employees from the peak. Sure. YouTube ad revenue - So this is the important one too, is the YouTube ad revenue, because YouTube kind of seems to have hit a bump for a little bit there, right?

19:29It wasn't growing as fast as it was. It's been floating right around seven and a half to eight billion for the last like six quarters, it feels like, or so. Yeah. um ad revenue again eight billion dollars up twelve and a half percent year over year up four percent that's good recorder and came in above they turned it around yeah they turned it around right um and then again cloud revenue 8.4 billion up 22 and a half percent year over year but actually came in slightly below expectations i just want to point out yeah that this revenue is up 11 year over year but the number of employees is down like four percent or something 5%.

20:01So they're at 182 ,000 employees from a peak of 190. And so this is part of the overall story of getting fit in Silicon Valley, doing more with less. The number of employees goes down year over year by 4 or 5%. The revenue goes up 11%. So this is efficiency. And this is what the street has wanted from them. So I'm surprised the stock reacted negatively. Is this because Microsoft's cloud is doing better than google's is that and they think it's basically a proxy for how they're doing in ai in their ai services so i think that's really what it's all about but there is one chart that i i saw that i thought was interesting to bring up so the the chart on the top is google's total quarterly revenue by quarter and the chart on the bottom is it's year over year quarterly revenue growth so you can see in the beginning of covid for obviously for one of the i think i I guess the second time ever, Google had a actual negative, it had negative growth in a quarter.

21:01And I think that was Q2 of 2020 when COVID first hit and advertising pause and everything, the whole world felt like it stopped. And then after that, you could see the insane revenue scale up to at one point, Google had over 60 % revenue growth year over year. And obviously, that was because that was the quarter of the year before where revenue crashed down. But if you just look on it on a cumulative basis, their revenue quarter over quarter, It's pretty amazing to think that they're scaling$70 billion of revenue. Even growing that 10 % is amazing. These are big numbers. And I think that's a really good point.

21:35But you do see when a company gets to this scale, it's hard to move the needle. There's no acquisition they can make that's going to change this, right? What company is making$10 billion a quarter that could grow them 20%, right? You would have to get into something like Tesla, Uber, Airbnb. be, they would have to be able to buy one of those companies in order to like really jump this revenue up. So this is, you know, these are turning into value stocks in a way, if you think about it that way, as opposed to high growth stocks. And what they could be doing, though, is they could pull out of Apple's playbook, buying back shares.

22:12So with all this cash, if they want to see that stock go up, buying back shares or issuing dividends, which is essentially the same thing when you think about it, buying back shares just gives you a cash-free dividend for the moment. If you get the dividend, it's going to be double taxed. The company's going to pay tax on it. I think you're going to pay tax on it. I think that's how it goes. So it's really going to be... All this is going to be about, I think, at the end of the day, this is... They're not high-growth businesses. They might have moments of high growth, but you're absolutely correct.

22:43When you start making$70 billion, it's kind of hard to grow that significantly. Yeah. And then transitioning to Microsoft, Jason, you just mentioned buybacks. Microsoft announced that it bought back$9.1 billion worth of shares this quarter, which is technically it's Q1. They have an offset fiscal year. Microsoft beat on top line and bottom line. The stock's up almost 4%, or it was as of noon Eastern time. $2.55 trillion market capped. Q1 revenue,$56.5 billion, up 13 % year over year, up 1 % quarter over quarter. Net income,$22.3 billion, up 27 % year over year, up 11 % quarter over quarter. Azure was the big winner, up 20, still growing, almost 30 % year over year, up 29%.

23:25That's wild. Intelligent cloud revenue as a whole was up 19 % to$24.3 billion. Why do they put the intelligent cloud in front of that? Yeah, they group Azure in with the intelligent crowd. So they don't actually tell you their exact revenue. They just tell you the amount Azure grew on a percentage basis year over year. And Satya, in his comments, mentioned AI almost 30 times in his opening statement. Here's a quote with co-pilots. We are making the age of AI real for people and businesses everywhere. We are rapidly infusing AI across every layer of the tech stack for every role and business process to drive productivity gains for our customers.

23:59So they know. Perfect. Yeah. They know where they're going. They know what's up. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, co-pilot is the obvious proof point here. anybody who knows a developer hears from them that they're 10 30 50 faster it depends on the task and how unique your code base is so if that can happen with developers that can happen with accountants it can happen with lawyers it can happen with designers it can happen with strategy people people who make powerpoints every executive human resources are going to be using some sort of co-pilot to make themselves really fast and you know we you and i we remember we did we tried to do this this week in startups archivist and hire somebody to go through and transcribe everything and organize everything well if you go to this week in startups now uh.com we are using podcast ai they transcribe every episode of the show they know who the guests are they tagged it and now you have a full index search we were going to spend a hundred dollars two hundred dollars per episode to do this uh with two thousand episode that would have been about a five hundred thousand dollar project and i was thinking about investing in it for the legacy of the show and what three years later ai is doing the whole thing and it's just done yeah and so this is a really important point you and i were trying to figure this out i think it was two years ago yeah we had a lot of what do they call that technical debt with the old website because the old website had every single episode it had it numbered it had a small description of it but it was built on this old wordpress infrastructure that was so i mean you know and for the time it was probably in 2009 when you started it it was probably like the best Shout out Matt Mullen.

25:35Yeah. But my God, it was just impossible to move, to figure the site out. So we had to totally scrap it. And now a company we've invested in podcast. I just did the whole thing. And you guys shared a clip last week from, you know, there's about a hundred companies making, you know, make an automated clip from the podcast. And you yourself said, not bad. Like you gave it a B or something. A podcast clip recently from this. And I was talking to the founder about it. And I was like, you know, there's, there's a bit, this is a whole other side discussion, But there is a really, in terms of like podcast, TikTok clip creator tools, there are like two ways that you can go, right?

26:13You can go the route of we want to build a browser-based editor that's like really, really basic. And we're going after the sort of, I'd call it creator class, right? The individual, the indie podcaster, the solo person that wants to make a clip but doesn't want to spend money on an editor. Or you can go after more of like the enterprise class. and what that means is you know no real editor i don't think is ever going to use a browser-based like sort of mishmash together solution but what i was talking to the founder about i'm like if you want to go after like real editors what you need to do this tool is amazing and it's amazing how you could basically do a cutout of the video overlay it on stuff all automatically that used to take a lot of time in after effects now you could just do it like this right which is great but if you really want to capture like the enterprise editor market where the real money is i think you have to make it exportable to premiere and exportable to other editing software right and that's what this founder did and i was like this is there's something here now i think if it's easily exportable so they would make a tiktok video with you know moving animations putting the the um captions on top of it an interesting way but if you export it then you get all the layers and the in the that you can then edit and refine and make it perfect the polish so you could polish so say they get you 70 there that last 30 is really the part that you need a human to do right um at least that's that's what i think maybe someone will figure out the solution soon but no that i think is where the money is right now and that's what this founder is doing so that's why i thought that was really interesting i mean it it takes us two hours or four hours to make a good quality clip what does it take now probably two yeah probably so if an editor you know full-time editor or even if you were to use somebody offshore let's call a 30 bucks an hour i don't know for like a decent editor who could do it uh a freelancer might be 30 or 40 you think so it winds up being 60 80 let's round it up to 100 a clip you know if you take out 70 of cost it's basically taking out 70 of the 100 a clip in cost so you could either make three times as many clips or you can move on to the next thing on your to-do list all right everybody steven estes is a principal at cla clifton larson allen's a professional service provider that specializes in CPA, tax consulting and wealth advisory.

28:33Welcome to the program, Stephen. Thank you for having me. What are the big mistakes people make when they're architecting their accounting, their cash management? What are the company killers that you see most often? Since we're talking about startups and things that break companies, I mean, a lot of the things that I've seen out there could be around equity-based comp. One of the mistakes we'll see, and I've seen some pretty wacky stuff over the years, is founders, CEOs promising to some of the key people that they're going to get equity at a certain rate or like their last 409A, but they've just raised a series A or series B.

29:09And now the value of those shares is up 10X. And now there's a$200 ,000 tax problem. And we need to now go back to the board and try and get a bonus to this person to cover the tax. So I think that that's something that gets overlooked by a lot of startups and a lot of founders. And I think that it's important that all founders have a basic understanding of equity based comp. I mean, they don't need to be a CPA, but they should understand the difference between a non-qual and an ISO and an early exercise or a restricted stock awards would be the right thing. And if an 83B election would help out and what that is and what the implications are.

29:45Get started right now at claconnect.com slash tech. Let them know your boy, jcal sent you claconnect.com slash tech to get started right now okay you know the thing i'm really excited about with snap i saw mark pinkus tweeting about snap he's got a big position i i was thinking about putting a j trade on for snap i'm at the end of this year i'm going to clear out all my losers in my j trade portfolio so that i have all those losses to take against some wins i have in the portfolio um so there's going to be a bunch of cash coming in uh a little tlh coming in and so we're gonna we're gonna just annihilate the losers from this portfolio shout out disney shout outs uh uh warner brothers who else cost me money this year sish fix um they're all that's gonna get cleared out and then we're gonna have to put some money into something i'm looking at snap okay so take me through it yeah i just i might have to talk you off the ledge here a little bit because snap snap stock was up slightly after initially jumping initially jump almost like 20 percent and after i was i saw that beat top line beat bottom line user metrics beat expectations as well their market cap is relative to their revenue pretty low it's a pretty cheap stock it's 15.8 billion dollar market cap um q3 revenue was 1.2 billion basically up five percent year of a year up 11 % quarter over quarter.

31:09Snaps year over year quarterly revenue growth had been declining for two consecutive quarters, but now they just increased it. So they're sort of back to growth. If you go with Snaps trailing 12 months revenue, they're trading at a three and a half times price to sales. Wow. Yeah. Daily active users, 406 million up 12%. That's the thing that got me. That's a lot of people. Yeah. I'm a little dubious about that number. I'll be totally honest with you um snapchat plus which is their um paid subscription it's two bucks how's that doing uh it has five million paying subscribers they announced or they announced they surpassed five million paying subscribers so at least 10 million dollars a month in revenue from that um 200 million users have sent over 20 billion messages using snaps my ai tool uh net loss was 368 million dollars which was basically flat year over year and slightly lower slightly less of a loss why are they losing money i thought they were trying to become a profitable company.

32:03I don't understand what Evan's doing. So this is the big thing with Snap. They've lost money in every single quarter that they've been a public company, except one at the end of 2021, where they were profitable. They were on a net basis. They were profitable like$22 million or something. It was basically a break even. What is Evan's thinking here? If the entire world would give him huge credit, like they did Uber and Airbnb for being a profitable company, why is he still living in 2020 in the Zerp environment he's got to leave Zerp he's the only person who hasn't gone post Zerp yeah so you know I don't know that answer to your question but what I do know is that I think Evan and his CTO the two co-founders due to their super voting shares they control 99 % of the outstanding stock the outstanding voting shares in Snap so they can basically do whatever they want here's the thing shout out to ev and his partner for having a hootspa if you're going to have super voting shares you might as well use them and so obviously they have some thesis here that losing a billion dollars a year or a billion two makes sense i don't know what they're thinking but they i think they're content having a 15 billion dollar company if it was profitable this might be a 20 billion dollar company or 25 but i guess they don't care maybe more but maybe they don't about that maybe they got some grand vision here and they want to keep growing the user base yeah and they've been they've done a ton of work on their like you know ar lenses um developer platform which i think is is that's great but i i really don't know side quest people are using that like it's a side quest yeah and i have some of my own thoughts on snapchat as someone who's used it forever but um just let me outgrow it you get married you have a kid you that's it it's over no more snap i mean i've you're way too busy It probably was Snapchat's first real demographic.

33:57I think it came out when I was a sophomore in high school. So I was really the first group of users that were on Snapchat all the time. It was all my friends and I. And by the time I think we left college, most people were basically off Snapchat. I still have one group chat on there that I will open it for. But for the most part, yeah, everybody's kind of cycled off of it. But - They all went to Instagram? Yeah, basically everybody went. And iMessage. Like iMessage groups just got so good that there's no reason to get canceled or whatever. Yeah, iMessage got up. So their SNAPs cash position, they have$3.6 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities.

34:38They just announced they're going to repurchase$500 million up to$500 million worth of shares using their cash and equivalents. And as of June 2023, they had about$3.75 billion worth of debt. Now, you can assume that that debt was mostly taken on during a very, very low interest rate environment. So, if it's not variable, they might be paying 3 % on it, 2 % on it or something. I don't know. Yeah. And it's corporate debt. And corporate debt always gets like a lower interest rate, right? No, I think it's opposite. I think it's higher. Yeah. Like then a mortgage because you have the house against it.

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35:10But who knows what they struck. There were some weird things going on during that period. So, anyway, let's put it at 5%. If it's 5 % and they think that they're going to grow more than 5 % in revenue or whatever, then it's a good trade to make, I guess. But using debt to buy your stock back seems to be a little risky to me. That's like paying your mortgage with your credit card. So yeah, I'm off the ledge. I'm back inside. Actually, I'm shutting the window on this one. I just shut the window. I didn't lock the window. I shut the window though. I don't need to be on a ledge with these guys, especially not with the money losing.

35:45I'm off. I'm out. I think it's clearly it's it. The stock is cheap. If you compare it to its other counterparts and it has a lot of users, but I think just because something is on sale, it doesn't necessarily mean that you should buy it. And everybody that I see saying that snap is such a good buy are like guys in their forties and fifties. Are those users? Do you know? Is anybody banging the drum about how amazing Snapchat is? Everybody says teens are using it like crazy. Okay. as someone who's used it since it first came out, I actually don't think it's that good of a product. I think that - It's a bit of a mess, right?

36:20It's a hodgepodge of UX. You don't really know what you're supposed to do with it. Like, is it for group chats? It can be. The Snap Map is interesting, but it doesn't feel like that's been fully fleshed out. It seems like they're pouring all their resources into this like AR lenses platform. I'm not sure that - Didn't they start to de-deprecate that and cut some of the spending on that side quest? They did, but they just mentioned on the last earnings call that they were so proud of the work that they were doing in their AR development platform. Evan's a very cerebral product guy who doesn't talk all that much.

36:55And I don't think that this company does a great job communicating with the rest of the world what their vision is. And the product is a product genius, clearly. Yeah. And 400 million people is unbelievable. I mean, this is like 5 % of the planet or whatever use this product. Daily active too. That's not monthly active usage. That's daily active usage. Yeah, no, it's a sick amount of daily active. And those street things, they really understand the gamification of all this. What I wonder is the governance issue here where they don't have a board that controls it. I would think the governance should be such that they would say, let's be profitable.

37:34boom let's buy if we're going to buy back shares let's buy a hundred million from profits and a hundred million from the debt or something you know and make it feel more like what uber's doing there was a report that came out about uber might buy something to the effect of like 20 percent of outstanding shares wow that's crazy i miss that you know like the next five years it was a crazy report um and so they just upped their price target to 59 i think it was goldman or somebody and so they i think they're reporting on november 8th so i'm really excited about that obviously i'm a long-term shareholder and uh you know uh they've just done a great job there's like five or six million uber drivers now i think there's two million people who work at mcdonald's and like a million that work out it's either two million at walmart and a million at mcdonald's or the reverse in other words if you put mcdonald's and walmart together or you know starbucks and walmart together.

38:25I think Uber is like twice as many people making money from their platform. So it's shout out to the team at Uber. Okay, everybody, there are a ton of best practices out there for scaling your startup need more compute. Well, you go find one of the dozens of cloud providers. If you need a more scalable sales system, there are hundreds of CRMs for you to choose from. But one thing that is really hard to scale customer support, of course, yes. Why? Well, because as your customers grow, your support tickets, they grow in lockstep. This can create a huge problem. You have to hire and train customer support staff, which can lead to longer resolution times, which then increases your churn and high churn.

39:06Well, that kills a startup. So here's your solution, everybody. InTouchCX provides end-to-end customer experience tools that are powered by AI. InTouchCX can even manage forecasting and staffing for your customer support agents. This will deliver personalized responses quickly. And that's going to help drive that customer satisfaction. Listen, automation is changing everything and customer experience and customer support is at the forefront of the AI revolution. And you need to be there too. Don't wait. Don't fall behind your competition. You're going to save money. You're going to provide better service to your customers.

39:43And you want to start scaling now and you want to start scaling smarter with InTouchCX. visit intouchcx.com slash twist for your free consultation with an automation expert. Okay, that's intouchcx.com slash twist for a free consultation. I have one more question for you slash observation about Snapchat. Okay, so they define a daily active user as someone who opens the app. You don't have to send a snap, you don't have to open a story, you just have to open the app. Now over the not a notification, not a notification, just clicked on the notification, open the app okay that's it open the app uh yeah not not opening an email actually you have to you have to open the app um i have been but i will say i've been getting a lot of notifications over the past month ish maybe a little bit more from snap's new um my ai tool so they send you they'll like populate notifications on your phone but you can't really tell that it's the my ai when you're scrolling through your phone so you'll just see that you have like you know five notifications on snapchat and you're like that's weird i are one of my friends from my group chats so you open it but then it's just like oh look at our new feature set for my ai but then i count as a user you think they're goosing the notifications to get the users up i don't know i kind of just looking into it i because i noticed this i'm like why do i have all these snapchat notifications nobody's using it i think that would be standard operating procedure you could see i could see people in a war room somewhere saying hey we want to show whatever percent growth and then somebody saying you know how do we get more people to open the app and they say okay let's do birthday reminders you know like you know standard gamification stuff yeah and like oh you were doing this day eight years ago which is fine i think i mean this is just classic ways to get engagement and to get people to re-engage with the product so you know here's your spotify rewind and that oh you want to share your spotify refund other people get it oh here's nick spotify here's jacal spotify rewind you know it just kind of gets you into the whole uh you know or like hey you like this podcast might you like this one kind of situation or this artist you follow on spotify is now on tour so yeah there's a whole group of people who are working at these companies to shape that kind of stuff and there could be an edict from on high hey we want this number for the earnings call you know you can spam people a little extra which you know is i guess it's fair game um i guess i don't know if it's fair game if the feature doesn't make the person turn off notification so the punishment for overplaying your hand here is the old unsubscribe turn off notification which i just did by the way i just turned off notifications because okay so there you go so somebody clipped this and send it to ev and the team over there and let them know like don't overplay your hand because i've been turning off notifications like crazy i think notifications are evil i'm now like team focus mode and team sleep mode and i'm turning off notifications for almost every app i literally even turned it off for messages i'm like you know what i hope with my phone enough turn off notifications and for kids i'm turning off notification all three daughters no more notifications i think on their ipads notifications are evil they create anxiety and stress in humans totally if you're at work and you're using slack just open slack and look at your notifications so you don't need to get pinged about them it's just anxiety producing that goes yeah yeah i turned that off a long time ago of course of course yeah you know it's anxiety producing?

43:08What if it's me DMing you? Some crazy idea for a new project. I have a framework, I think, for investing in consumer internet companies. I think I want to run this by you. If a company has the governance and the capital situation that Snapchat has with a lot of outstanding debt, not a ton of cash in the bank, unprofitable, and the founders control everything, then you need to be, to invest in that company, you have to be absolutely blown away by the product. You have to be like early Instagram. Like, wow. Or the growth. Or the growth. Something has to blow you away in order to ignore the governance issues.

43:52This is a great observation. And I think if you don't, if you want to have the God King, yeah, if you want to have the God King privilege, you better perform. That's it. It's a great rubric. If you want those shares, if you want the super voting shares you better be bringing it like google has historically yeah and yeah listen you know it's just every time you want to fall in love with that stock you look at the governance and you look at the debt and you you look at the fact that they are kind of saying we don't care about profitability and you say like does this feel like amazon and uber and airbnb and honestly it doesn't i would like them to show me four quarters in a row of profits and then i to buy the shares.

44:31Maybe two even. Show me two quarters. 25 million in profits and 100 million in profits. How about the stock then? Yeah. It's$9 a share, right? I could see it being a good trade. I could see you maybe doubling your money if something goes right for Snap. I like to double. But if you're - I could also lose half. Hold companies for 10 years. I just, I don't know. Yeah. All right. Anything else going on? Let's do the Graycroft who laid off a couple of people, the vc firm this is an interesting one because i saw the story basically gray cough i know the the folks over there it's a um a very large vc they had over five billion and then there was a story that they laid off five people and the question was um you know is is this like some big uh you know thing that's you know indicative of a pullback in the industry and people are missing their targets and fundraising um and it's this came in from the information which you know listen they're amongst the smartest of the journalists out there but again they only have 20 as i always say like they have about 10 20 30 percent of the information so they're going to make a lot of um you know they make a lot of jumps to to figure out what this actually means and so yeah tell me tell me what's happened since because i know axios did a report I think the folks from Graycroft responded and then there might've been a follow-up.

45:57So I, I only know the first half of the story here. I think I set it up correct. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Perfectly. And in fact, the Axios story that came out a couple of days after the information story sort of felt like as I was reading it, I was like, it feels like the Graycroft people wrote this for Axios. It was very like, oh, it's just a restructuring. The Axios team knows, you know, they're, they're very, um, um, they're certainly not in the pocket or anything but you know dan um over there at axios knows everybody in the industry and is well respected in the industry so if you were going to correct something you would go to axios that would be you know and axios is a really you know uh smart savvy journalist you know i put both of these in the top 10 percent of actual real journalism totally agree but at the bottom of the axios article there was a footnote that was like graycroft was an early investor in axios but it no longer owns any shares.

46:48Sure. Okay. So yeah, they got the back channel. Fine. Fair enough. So anyway, basically they cut Graycroft as reported by the information, cut five people on its investment team. Two of them were partners and I think three of them were principals. One was a partner who was in charge of their health tech investing team. Another one was in charge of their fintech investment team. And basically the information article said they're really scaling back their health tech and their fintech investments so this is sort of uh you know i don't know if it was hey restructuring yeah you can leave or this or that but the the axios article that came out later was basically like they they were allowed to leave um yeah of course this is how it goes like you're just not invited to come back listen i was pretty public about this we we got rid of our climate practice i tried it for 14 months it didn't work and the person who is running the climate practice is no longer here.

47:41It's not anybody's fault. Sometimes as a fund, you just have to make strategic decisions. Yeah. And it seemed like it was slightly due to some fundraising underperformance as well. So last year, according to the information, Graycroft set out to raise about$1.6 billion between two funds, a growth fund and an early stage fund. It wound up raising about 980 million, about 40 % below its target. And they announced that going forward, they're not actively seeking investments in healthcare and fintech anymore, as I said. And now it's shifting most of its focus into AI. And that was sort of what the Axios article was about, was like, this was really a restructuring.

48:19Now we're pushing the chips on, all in on AI. Of course, it makes sense. I mean, you got to skate to where the puck's going. Healthcare's hard. AI is infecting everything. We just talked about it in so many different ways. It's every story is somehow connected to it. It's like cloud or mobile or high speed internet. It's just affects every aspect of business. So, you know, there's nothing journalists like more than like, oh, somebody didn't hit their target story or somebody laid people off. But the truth is, this is a sign of strength from Graycroft to, you know, you know, I don't want to say cut underperformers.

48:54They could have been underperformers, but you would never say that in venture. But you'd say in venture is, hey, this and they're going on to their next adventure. It didn't work out. there's no website in saying like these people weren't good at their jobs right you just give them a graceful exit uh it's a gentleman's restructure that's it it's a gentleman's restructure nobody was fired nobody's laid off we restructured and you know there just wasn't alignment on that the end everybody moves on um but you know these journalists love to you know give themselves a bunch of high fives i remember when the story came out like every information journalist was retweeting it and giving high fives to the journalist oh they found out five people were being laid off you know it's like kind of pathetic i'll be honest um no no offense to the information i respect some of the folks over there but you know like when they i don't like this thing where they are like oh my god amazing reporting and it's like oh amazing reporting you found out like a couple of people are no longer at the firm it's not amazing reporting let's be honest because you're not getting a pull-ups for that it's like the lowest form of reporting you know like oh somebody dropped a dime somebody told you like look at linkedin like that's really that's not really like gonna get your pullets or sorry just the lesson you know i respect obviously the information great job but you know everybody pump the brakes like 16 retweets the entire team is retweeting this thing like this is why you wanted to talk about this story i thought you wanted to talk about how maybe there's like a pullback going on at vc i'm putting my media hat on i'm putting my media hat on for this one but i will tell you putting on my venture hat on here one thing they got wrong in this story um or they don't understand very well and so they you can clip this and send it to the information folks when you raise these funds the in the sec your lawyer says how much you're raising so for example for fund four where i said you know i've been telling people the public targets 100 million i came out and i was like well we did 44 million in the last fund i think this fund will be like 50 to 100 and so then when you talk to your lawyer though i was like okay 50 to 100 okay we'll put on the paperwork like 150 you want to put 200 150 i'm like well i don't know and like well you know just make it like double because that's just like if something happened crazy you change your strategy you know you just don't have to refile the paperwork and then a lot of the journalists know where to get this paperwork so graycroft may have put that like the upper target right which is kind of like it's not even a stretch goal it's like the absurdity one so i think i set it at 150 for launch fund four just in case like i don't know some strategic incredible investor masayoshi song comes in and oh jcal i love what you're doing you know i want to be partners with you here's a 50 million you know and i already raised 100 i'm like okay well you know now it's a party let's go so there's kind of like that going on here um and so then they're like ha ha you know like the kid on the simpsons yeah oh you didn't hit your target it's like just so you know they literally tell you the vcs will tell you to double that target when you file it so and they've raised it this is unbelievable that they raised a billion dollars between these two funds in this environment yeah it's absurd so they painted this as if graycroft is like struggling or it's some kind of train wreck i can assure you this is like a sign of actual strength what they should be saying is graycroft has the chutzpah despite having 25 million dollars a year in fees on their billion dollars they have the chutzpah to let go of a couple people and refocus and add some people and you know make some trades for their team this is like trading you know a starter you know on your team and like two of your bench players rotation players to get slightly better you know a slightly better starter and a couple of better rotation players this is far from a sign of weakness um so shout out to the graycroft team shout out axia shout out jessica lasin information uh yeah i got you from all sides here on this week at startups i can give you both sides of the table here and everything in between that was good that was a good breakdown yeah all right last thing before we go and and um you tweeted about your three d's the three d's of how you i'm playing three dimensional check here yes of how you had to get in there with a reply i know i don't even want to don't even bring up reply guy chermas don't even believe it at that yeah can you just go through so this is about how you evaluate okay so i am lp investment this is how you evaluate yes i am in 20 venture funds plus four of my own so 24 total uh the way i like to manage my personal wealth is you know live in a nice house buy a nice ski house real estate i can use the equities that get kicked off from you know being an investor in private companies i go public so i have new bank i got square you know um i have uber obviously you know doordash i like to hold those if i love the companies and you see me publicly do a little like two million dollars in trading on j trading that was just for fun um but then i like to put my money into venture funds because i i understand that business really well and you know it's a 10 20 year but it should outperform the indexes um and so venture is really uh as i mentioned in here three d's and you know this happened because i've been meeting with a bunch of potential lps over here when i'm in the region family offices people want to meet with these Sarban Wealth Funds.

54:00And the three Ds that I look at is deal flow. Okay, so proprietary deal flow, how do you meet companies? You know, if you're Sequoia, well, you're legendary, everybody wants you on the cap table. Oh, if you're a Y company, you got a great reputation. If you're launched, I have two pockets, they get 100 million listens combined. And you know, that creates our deal flow. So deal flow is super important. If you're, you know, a Stanford graduate, and you might be on the Stanford network. If you're an AI PhD, you have some knowledge and you're respected, you wrote some seminal paper in AI, you know, maybe people are drawn to you.

54:35So that would be like proprietary deal flow. So that's what I look for. Then the second thing is your decision making process. You've seen the database and our decision making process. I have 13 reasons why we invest in a company. I've got 25 red flags. So that decision making process is really important. And so when you're talking to a fund manager, hey, how do you decide what you invest in walk me through the process you look at a company how do you figure it out um you know some people might be doing like super deep diligence uh you know on like the technology you know whatever and then doubling down you know in order to your fund construction is the fancy term for it it's pretty simple if you got a great hand you want to double down you know there's some hands in blackjack that you split because your odds are in your favor depending on what the set of aces and there's no flush on the board or whatever you want to get as much money into that hand as possible so doubling down is critically important i didn't double down in the early part of my career i was like one and done investor now you see me if i like a company they're having success they went to the accelerator we're going to investigate in their seed round and investigate in their series a those are my three uh competing for deals is another thing so you get out of see there which would be can they compete for deals i don't have to worry about competing for deals you know in the seed stage is usually 10 investors in a company so that was it i thought i would share that and i i add one fund manager a year i added my fund manager for 2023 i'll add another one in q4 of 2024 do you get the same like startup tingle you know when you when you meet a team of founders and you say you get like the whoa kind of no do you get the same thing with a venture not yet with a gp or no no so this is way more about strategy follow-on strategy how do you get your deal flow okay cool and also like you know it's also like does this person really need to win like is this important to them or are they uh have they quite quit you know there's a lot of like gps i know who have basically quite quit they're just collecting the fees they got people working for them doing the deals and they're just it's such an incredible um position to have in the world you make so much money that fuck it i'm just gonna you know uh i'm just not gonna quit the job but i'm gonna keep raising money and still be a gp so i gotta like um you know filter against that right i need people who really want to win who have a competitive edge because it's a very competitive business if you're doing it right uh you know fighting for deals fighting for deal flow trying to make good decisions, trying to fight for more allocations to double down.

57:13You really need to be a fighter. You need to want it. You need to have a really hard work ethic to win. Yeah, I saw that clip of you on the, was it the LP podcast? I did the shout out to the LP podcast. Yeah. You talked about Doug Leone. You're like, I thought that guy's retired. I thought he's retired. He's still there every time I go into the office. What are you doing here? It's like Carmelo Anthony. He's sitting on the side watching a Knicks game. The ball inadvertently hits him and he immediately gets out of his seat and hits the three-point corner three. He's like, f*** it. I'm in the game.

57:39Put me in. You know, some folks just don't can't quit. So shout out to the only fan of the show. All right, let's wrap. All right, everybody. It's been a great show. Thank you, producer Nick. And we'll see you all next time on This Week in Startups. Go check out the new website, thisweekstartup.com. Shout out podcast.

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Jason kicks the show off with a discussion on the state of venture capital in the Middle East (1:34). Then, he breaks down Q3 earnings reports for Google, Microsoft, and Snap (18:12), and much more!

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(0:00) Jason kicks off the show

(1:34) The state of VC in the Middle East

(10:15) The founder ecosystem and adapting to EU regulations

(13:57) Updates on "THE LINE"

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(18:12) Google Q3 earnings

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(29:57) Snap’s Q3 earnings

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(39:57) Snap’s Daily Active Users (DAU)

(43:15) Frameworks for investing in consumer internet companies

(44:56) Greycroft layoffs

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