In short
This Week in Startups: Episode E2131 Summary
Episode Overview In this episode of *This Week in Startups*, host Jason Calacanis discusses three major developments in the startup and tech world:
- Google's AI Design Tool: Stitch
- Salesforce's $8B Acquisition of Informatica
- Increasing Momentum in Startup M&A Activity
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Detailed Breakdown
- Google’s AI Tool - Stitch
- Launch Announcement: Google unveiled *Stitch*, an AI-powered web design tool that allows users to create websites by simply describing their needs, offering a one-click export to Figma.
- Impact on Freelance Marketplaces: This tool may disrupt existing freelance design services by providing an automated solution for website creation that could replace traditional designer tasks.
- User Experience: Initial user tests suggest varying quality in design outcomes, indicating the need for thoughtful prompts to achieve better results. A user shared a more detailed prompt that yielded superior design outputs.
- Key Insight: The episode emphasizes the potential of AI in democratizing design and lowering costs for startups that typically rely on freelance designers.
- Salesforce’s Acquisition of Informatica
- Deal Overview: Salesforce announced an $8 billion acquisition of Informatica, a company specializing in data management and governance.
- Strategic Purpose: This acquisition aims to expand Salesforce's AI capabilities beyond customer relationship management (CRM) to include more comprehensive data solutions.
- Market Context: The discussion highlights Salesforce's previous reluctance to engage in large acquisitions due to investor pressure but indicates a renewed focus on strategic growth through M&A.
- Implications for Founders: Founders are advised to keep an eye on such strategic moves as they can indicate emerging trends in industry consolidation and technology integration.
- M&A Activity Surge
- Current Trends: The episode discusses a rebound in startup mergers and acquisitions (M&A), with notable billion-dollar deals from companies like OpenAI and DoorDash.
- Market Predictions: Jason predicts a significant increase in M&A activity in Q2, suggesting that the market is beginning to recover from previous downturns.
- Data Insights: The show references historical low periods for M&A, with potential growth opportunities emerging as companies seek to consolidate and innovate amidst economic challenges.
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Additional Discussions
- Cultural Commentary: The hosts engage in a humorous yet critical discussion about the "shaming" of screen time, using the context of a new app that tracks and publicly displays users' screen time in an effort to encourage healthier habits.
- Basketball and Business: A light-hearted conversation about the New York Knicks transitions into a broader discussion on operational strategies in sports management that can be applied to startup investing and team dynamics.
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Key Takeaways
- AI as a Disruptor: Google’s *Stitch* exemplifies how AI tools can significantly reduce costs for startups by automating design processes.
- Strategic Acquisitions: Salesforce's acquisition of Informatica underscores the importance of data in driving AI capabilities, presenting valuable lessons for founders regarding market positioning and strategic growth.
- M&A Momentum: The resurgence of M&A activity reflects a shifting landscape where startups are increasingly looking for consolidation to navigate uncertainties.
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Sponsors
- OpenPhone: Offers a streamlined communication tool for startups.
- CLA: Provides financial management services tailored for growth-stage companies.
- Pilot: Focuses on bookkeeping and CFO services for startups.
Closing Remarks Jason wraps up the episode with insights on upcoming events and a call to action for listeners to stay engaged with the evolving startup ecosystem, highlighting the importance of adaptability and innovation in business.
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For more insights, subscribe to the TWiST500 newsletter and check out the episode links for more resources on Google Stitch, Joby Aviation, etc.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00I also think Jason, it shows that Google really wants to do everything in AI. Like they're trying to flood the zone here and apparently to some success. So points to Sundar and his team. I got to say they were behind in AI and now we keep talking about him. So that's all. And as you can see here, we've shamed Lon, Alex, because of his prompt and it worked. It worked. He's going to do better. His prompt will be better next time. I think prompt shame is the next big thing. I mean, if you get people to use AI, we should be looking at people's prompt and saying, really, that's the best prompt you can do?
0:33this is what doing extra this is what doing extra gets you on twist you see a thing and you think you know what I need to test this out myself I'm not just going to take I'm not just it's okay Alex you did a completely serviceable job that's that by the way in Jason speak is is is serviceable congratulations on doing the bare minimum
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1:36All right, everybody. Welcome back to This Week in Startups. It's your boy, Jake. I'm here with Lon Harris and Alex Wilhelm. One's in Austin, one's in New York, and one is in Singapore. I think you can guess I'm the one in Singapore. Gentlemen, how are we doing? What time is it there for each of you? It's 9 a.m. here in Austin, Texas. Okay, a little early for you. It's 10 a.m. here, but I kind of enjoyed starting work today at 6.30 a.m. because I feel so productive. I have gotten so much done, Jason, in such a short amount of time. If you want to feel productive, every time I get jet lagged, like I am now, there's this incredible feeling.
2:12You fall asleep at like 6 or 7 p.m. when you get here, wake up at 12 or 1 a.m. and then stay up all night. So at 4 a.m. I decided to go for a walk for, you know, two or three miles around town. This happens to me every time. I'm in the Middle East. I'm in Asia. I'm in Japan. I wind up going for these 3, 4, 5 a.m. walks around the town and it's uh singapore is a beautiful place it's the size of new york city um but somehow they've carved out a niche here that they are like hong kong hong kong was earlier in my life like this incredibly central important district and so i have a list of places i haven't been ah and uh when the speaker bureau is asked hey would you like to speak at this incredible extraordinary event would you like to speak at this incredible extraordinary event here's a briefcase you know it's a pretty amazing life i have to say to be wanted and and to be compensated for flying around the world i'll leave it at that it's it's pretty outrageous but uh you know i saw this thing uh on the twitter i guess it was called clear space and i sent it to you guys yes we have it here what's her name alexa alexia um bonanza is my uh former boss jason i remember meeting her when she was but a cub reporter in la she wrote a story about me back in the day um and uh yeah she i guess like all tech crunch vcs went on all tech crunch went on to become a VC and got married.
3:51And she's Greek, so we have that. And here's Alexia's screen time, if you check this out. And I guess the concept of the screen time network is that you share your screen time so you can be shamed. I think the goal is to lower it. Yes, the goal is definitely to lower it. That's why they're calling it Ozempic for screen time. That was Alexia's joke about it. She said, the world does not need another AI SaaS. What it needs is Ozempic for screen time. And as you can see, Jason, from her chart here that I have up on screen, she's making a lot of progress over a one-week period. From 12 hours in one day to just over two, looks like.
4:34Well, I asked Oliver the intern. I bought him a phone. I logged into it as me. And I'm on here. And I had him use it for 14 hours a day. And then I have him slowly going 30 minutes down so that I can publicly virtue signal that my screen time is. Oh, OK. So I have a burner phone to do that for me. Yeah, I got it. I got to be honest. I get I like the idea, but I don't know if shaming is is the thing that's going to work here. Like, I just I don't feel like you change. You're going to change your habits that way. I feel like you're going to do it for a few weeks and then go right back to your old.
5:08OK, your old. I feel like it's a it's a lifestyle change, not just like, oh, I feel bad. I'm going to lower these numbers so that I don't get embarrassed. Let me let me back into why you're very politely wrong. So one, this is from a company called Clear Space. They're a YC backed company. Winter 23 was their batch team of five, according to their profile over there. This, Jason, as far as I can tell, is a viral marketing stunt by the company. Clear Space, their application for iOS and Android is designed to help you limit your screen time. this is kind of um almost like a joke social network in a polite sense to show off what you're doing now laun the reason why i actually kind of disagree with you is what gets measured gets improved and i feel like right now my screen time information inside of ios is so buried deep down in the menus and the relatively lackluster software that apple has on there so i just don't see it but if i get your weekly i get my weekly report like they they'll ping you once a week with your like here's your weekly screen time and like i look at it and i agree it would be good to limit it like i'm not i'm not debating the overall premise here i just feel like like if i was gonna if i was gonna make a change i would have to like change something about my lifestyle that gets me off my phone like i'm gonna start taking a walk every day like that would get me off my phone successfully just being like oh i don't want jason and alex to see how much i've been on my phone I don't know if that's like a real fix that feels like a band.
6:33No, I think you're underestimating the power of shame. Shame is something we need much more of in our society. I'm, I'm here for it. I think we should be shaming people when they leave the office at four 30. I think we should be shaming people when they gain too much weight. I should have been shamed when I was fat. People should have absolutely tortured me. I should have been bullied and I should have lost the weight sooner. You had, you had me in the first half, Jason, and then you lost me in the back half. but just for the sake of transparency i went ahead and signed up for uh the screen time network here is my here's seven hours a day seven hours a day it's i think it starts tracking from when you join so clearly my thing is here but lauren what i really like about this compared to the ios updates is it gives you a bit more information about like when and how you've done it kind of gamifies it a little bit gives you some encouragement so instead of just being public shame i think this also is kind of like your Strava results you can share with your friends about how your runs are going.
7:29No one really cares if you're running 15 minute miles or 10 minute miles. But if you're going 15, 14, 13, that to me is kind of the thing you want to encourage. So I can see this working. I kind of like it. And Jason, here we are talking about ClearSpace. We haven't done that before. So, you know, shout out to them for doing that. That's the big lesson here is you can create a website that's adjacent to what you're doing in a clever way. Simply design it, vibe code it and they know the dynamics of shame uh they know public competition time to beat you know uh your best time yearly average best weekly average you know putting yourself into a pedometer group which i think fitbit and some other people did early on these things actually work um and then people want to share it so uh and when you sign up you're going to give them your email so this is a great idea you should be thinking about this for every startup you do uh com.com was the master of this alex created a website that said do nothing for 60 seconds reset the 60 second timer uh it was pretty famous he also did the million dollar home page where he sold he made a thousand pixels by a thousand pixels i guess would be a million um and uh he sold each pixel for a dollar and it turned out to be an interesting business so you can link them so these little devices are um just really great at driving folks to understand the problem in your space so always think about like a simpler hookier version of your product there's the million dollar home place i'm just showing this for folks who were too young when this came out but like this was a big deal this was like a viral hit people tried to make copycats of this they didn't really work out but alex chewy uh who later went on to build calm is kind of a hit maker jason he's kind of got that might as touch to him yeah it's a viral thing uh and this is a viral thing it's probably when you do these things it's probably not going to work but if it does work hey you may get people talking about it a whole bunch so good job for them it's a thing we talk about a lot in founder you we have uh or and launch as well there's a company that they sell a billboard space and they created they go on reddit because they've got this billboard that they actually own so they can put whatever they want on it so they go on reddit and put different kind of messages on it to go viral on reddit and use that to like grow interest around the company right so like gimmicky fun things that are going to go viral on the internet can be a great way to like promote your company, even if it's not directly related.
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10:53The AI is grabbing new leads. Think about that while you're asleep. See why over 60 ,000 businesses trust OpenPhone. I am one of those 60 ,000. OpenPhone is offering Twist listeners 20 % off your first six months at openphone.com slash twist. That's O-P-E-N-P-H-O-N-E dot com slash twist. Open phone. No missed calls. No missed customers. Yeah. No, I think that's brilliant. I mean, billboards are a big deal in kind of Silicon Valley culture, Jason. I think we all recall the Twilio Ask Your Developer billboards they ran back in the day that really kind of put them as a developer first company. That worked quite well.
11:28So lots of fun to be at. yeah it's uh the way to do it with the billboard would be to come up with some funny use of it to put up there well that's what they were doing on reddit is they actually asked this reddit community like what do you guys think we should put on the billboard and they would take pictures of the billboard with whatever the messages the community to base it uh the better thing would be to hashtag your tweet or your instagram uh billboard and then put something on there like Like if it hits 100 retweets, then it goes on the billboard. And then say that. If I get 100 retweets, this goes on the billboard.
12:06So now you've created a viral loop, right? So, you know, what should we put on the billboard? Doesn't create any virality. But coming up with a contest to do it, or if I get 100 likes or 100 retweets, then it goes on the billboard. That would create more of a loop, a reason to come back, right? So that's the virality piece of it. I saw some folks talking about this Google Stitch thing and it looked incredibly compelling to me. Maybe you could share that with folks here. Yeah. So Google had its IO developer event just a couple of days ago, and they released, Jason, roughly 55 ,000 things. So I think we're all still digesting each element of what Google put out, new models, new image creation models, new video creation models.
12:52One thing they dropped was a product called Stitch. and this is not something that's entirely brand new it is tell an ai what kind of website you would like and then it'll generate something that's along those lines what's cool about stitch is that it has a button that says edit and figma so if you're a figma person they're really setting this up to be a quick loop between ideation uh ai generation and then human editing which i think is kind of a cool thing now uh niyati soul had a pretty bullish tweet about this that we saw, I'll just show that to give her credit for this, she says that it's absolutely mind-blowing and that now the potential is endless.
13:29There's no excuse left to not build stuff. So, I, this morning, went and gave it a try and let me tell you, it wasn't great. I'm not going to lie. It was kind of a letdown. I think your prompt was pretty bad. A newsy web blog newsletter designed for cautionoptimism.news that is punchy, serious, and calm. Eh, you got to do something a little bit more thoughtful than that. Like, just redoing a blog is like a very base thing when she did it she was looking at her prompt or like the result of hers hers came out really gorgeous um but you know the bigger point here is there's another job ux that i think um everybody's going to be able to do now that doesn't mean everybody's gonna be able to do it perfectly but let's put let's pull up her design because it's it's a little more than just redoing um a newsletter page she did something that was more like let's build an app and i think that's where it really shines and as we saw last week when we did the uh yeah here's hers uh for those of you watching on youtube um and can you see her prompt if you click on it if you click on the image yeah i got it uh mobile friendly home for a marketplace of handmade ceramics and pottery with a minimalist oak theme and then she refined it the home screen for the ceramic and pottery marketplace app features a minimalist taupe theme with a search bar, a featured artist banner, curated collections, and a bottom navigation bar for easy access to different sections.
14:57Yeah. So with a little more robust prompt and then a follow-up, you can see like if a designer getting paid 50 bucks an hour on Fiverr or, you know, one of these marketplaces submitted this, I would say that would be what I would expect. And why is that important? Well, I think probably most startups, that's exactly what they do. They design with a$25 to$50 an hour offshore designer that they find on Fiverr or what are some of those other sites where you can get like freelancers, Dribbble, Behance. Upwork. Upwork would be the big one. Yes. Sorry, that was the one I was thinking of. So you go on Upwork and, you know, you find these designers who I would say are good at copying other common designs and being inspired by other designs.
15:48We talked on All In, I think last week, somebody stopped me who worked at Apple on the airplane and was like, you trashed us last week. I was like, where did you, when did I, I was like, get in line. Who did I trash last week? And he's like, Apple. I'm like, I don't trash Apple. I love Apple. What are you talking about? He's like, our design, Johnny Ive, you said he stole everything. I said, well, no, I said he was inspired by Dieter Braun. So it was Sachs who was arguing that he's a talentless hack who didn't really do anything. You were more in the middle. I think I was in the middle. The other two guys were laughing.
16:22Sachs and I are back with our pick and roll. What happens is when Sachs and I get going on something like that, he's like, isn't it? Was he a media creation? I'm like, interesting. Yeah. Let me get it on this. Yeah. Sax's contention was, Johnny, I've never done anything good. A pure media creation. Jason was more like the moderate position. Like, maybe he never did anything good and just ripped off all his ideas, but maybe not. Maybe there's something to it. Okay. Well, I was like, maybe that's what great artists do, is steal. So I gave it a backhanded comment. But the point is, even the mighty Johnny I copied everything Dieter Braun.
16:59Is that his name, Dieter Braun? No, Dieter Rahm. He worked for - Braun is the brand. I'm sorry. that's why i got it's diter ram yeah i believe diter rom is how you pronounce it and he worked for brawn you know like the shaver but they did many other electronic devices when you see them and yeah yeah transistor so once again we just eliminated a line item from the costs of running your startup that's we're here on this week in startup so i'd like to go back to that angle gentlemen you now have two tips in the first 10 minutes here number one if you create something viral you put these two things together like a make me a gorgeous website that tracks your iphone usage that's in a retro style um and that has short urls and boom you you do that you could have vibe coded this over the weekend in like a day or two or in a day this is a probably five thousand to ten thousand dollars worth of spend of your 125k incubator check.
18:02Just like signing your safe note or convertible note and having an attorney review it, that was$5 ,000 or$10 ,000, making a marketing plan, writing some code on the margin. So we're seeing each line item get abstracted. So if you want to come up with a good startup idea, what are the things that people used to spend money on for their startup? Recruiting somebody, acquiring some customers, creating a community, creating your designs, doing PR, sales development,
18:38raising money itself, that whole money raising process. So look at each of those in terms of the number of hours they take or who you might pay as a consultant. And then I bet you'll be able to start up around every single one of them. Yeah. One last point about this. When I was playing with the Jason refining my initially week prompt, I did discover that it won't make desktop websites. So I was stuck in this mobile world. And I said, I said, Hey, can we actually just swap desktop? And it said, no, you have to start a new thread for that. So I did. And then it said, you can't do that. Start a new thread for that.
19:08So right now a little bit limited, but again, I also think Jason, it shows that Google really wants to do everything in AI. Like they're trying to flood the zone here and apparently to some success. So points to Sundar and his team. I got to say, they were behind in AI and now we keep talking about him. So that's all. And as you can see here, we've shamed Lon, Alex, because of his prompt and it worked. It worked, yeah. He's going to do better. His prompt will be better next time. I think prompt shame is the next big thing. I mean, if you get people to use AI, we should be looking at people's prompt and saying, really, that's the best prompt you can do?
19:43This is what doing extra. Talk about the navigation. This is what doing extra gets you on Twitch. You see a thing and you think, you know what? I need to test this out myself. I'm not just going to take. It's okay, Alex. You did a completely serviceable job. That, by the way, in Jason's speak is thin ice. Congratulations on doing the bare minimum.
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21:29Oh no. If I recall correctly. So I wanted to bring to you the polymarket odds for them making it all the way to become the NBA champion. I'm sorry to say, Jason, it's actually 3%. And last week we brought up a market that was a little bit light. Jason, this one has$1.7 billion in volume. So I think it's nice and deep. Do you think the Thunder are 78 % favorite? That's my question. They're up 3-1 as well, or 3-2? I think they're up. i'll uh yeah it might be three one three one so they're both three one and so oh this is nba champion so by the way this is going all the way so this is not only winning this round this is winning the championship correct wow so the knicks have to win seven more games to win the championship uh yeah this is the right odds i think um indiana pacers need to win five and oklahoma city need to win five right the one game to close out the series in the four to win the next i think um the knicks have squandered their best chance at getting a champ a champion winning a championship since the hakim elijah won series uh when we lost uh because john starks couldn't hit the side of a backboard um but you know there were many reasons uh we could have won that series but yeah we could have been in the finals so it's incredibly frustrating but you know uh this is life uh and i'm excited we got to the conference finals but that's my question win the next game i just want to win the next game that's all nearly every sports team does not win their season right so do you feel like happy as a knicks fan if they make a good deep run in the postseason or is that just more like a like a like a teaser that makes it worse when they lose right now it feels pretty bad um and uh because the coach of our team this is a kind of interesting for startups as well he um something worked like he has a short rotation kind of concept so in basketball you have a 15 member team you can only play five those are called the starters uh at the top of the game and then you can rotate players and typically i would say the average team plays eight, nine, or ten players a game.
23:53He has always played a short rotation, six, seven players, right? He never gets the eighth or ninth unless it's garbage time. Meaningless game, he might put some people in. This has led to his players famously getting injuries because he overworks them. And also this year has resulted in them having incredible stamina. But what it does do is you don't get to see all the possible lineups and you don't give some emerging talent the ability to develop. So when we got down two games in a seven-game series, he hadn't tried out a lot of people on the bench. He hadn't tried out different rotations. And so then he starts experimenting with rotations in game three, and we win.
24:30And we had some really nice moments where we had, to not belabor the point, spread out a little bit of the minutes and try giving different people the opportunity. I do this inside of our venture firm. Everybody wants the starters, the high performers constantly get the same opportunity because they have done really well, being the point guard, the center, the wing, et cetera. What I do is every six months or 12 months, I will change who's in charge of founder university, the accelerator, the syndicate, or working here at launch or working directly with me as a shadow. What that does is it lets emerging talent get the chance to prove themselves.
25:10It gives them their 20 minutes in the game, 15 minutes in the game. And yeah, what's the downside? They fall on their face. They cause chaos. They're not very good. You know what? I kind of want to know that quickly so that I can stop investing in that person or I can invest in that person and get them better because the mistakes they're making are fixable, right? It's one or the other. Here's how you do that. You tell everybody at the start, you're going to work on a project we found at university. Jackie worked on that, for example. a guy named Charlie then took it over from Jackie. He added his own spin on it.
25:44It went to another level. That's no dig to Jackie. And then Kelly worked on it, added some things to it that made it even better than it had been under Charlie and Jackie. And now Lucas and Lon and some other folks at the headquarters are running it. It's doing even better. And what happens when you move people around as well, you should have redundancy. You're not reliant on one person. So if one person's not bringing it, you have this other person who's bringing it. This happened to the Warriors. They had older players who were in the twilight of their career. You had younger players, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green.
26:25As they came off the bench and got minutes, you were able to give them room to perform. What that also did was, if some older person wanted a huge contract, you were like, you know what? Are you worth that amount of money? Or is this younger up-and-comer worth giving the opportunity to? And this sounds incredibly cutthroat, and it is, and as business is. So if you are looking for yet another startup lesson, look at the bench and give the bench an opportunity. Hard to agree with that. Also, it makes more fun games to watch because you get to know more players and you get to see kind of more, I don't know, playing methods.
27:04I've been watching a lot of WNBA lately, so I've gotten to see some of this, Jason. All right, Jason, you wanted to talk about the biggest deal of the week, which is Salesforce is buying a company called Informatica, which is the most enterprise-y sounding name of all time. Before you jump in here, I'll just let everyone know it's an$8 billion transaction. And Salesforce, as we all recall, is a company that pledged back in 2023 that it had disbanded, its M &A committee, and was going to pull back from mega deals. And then about 20 minutes later, Mark Benioff was like, well, that's boring. I'm going to go back to doing deals.
27:37Tried to buy the company last year. Didn't work out. And now it is scooping it up, Jason, for about$3 billion less. But no matter what, we'd love to see some M &A, even if it is a couple of public companies. Okay. So one simple sentence. I always like to know what the company does. So what does this company do and what's the thesis? Do we have a handle on that? We do. Okay. I wrote this down so I knew you were going to ask it. Always start with that. I think it's just important for the audience to understand, especially the founders who are watching, why is somebody buying a company? It is interesting, I think in terms of context, that Salesforce during the wrath of Lena Kahn gave up.
28:23Did that really happen? Did Benioff say, we're disbanding our M &A? That was back in 2023 because he was under pressure by outside investors to stop doing so many big deals. They wanted him to focus more on cost cutting. And then he went back to doing deals. So that was because he was feeling pressure from activist investors, not necessarily Lena Khan. But I bet you the outside investors were like, listen, it's not going to get through anyway. So what's the point of all of this to try to even buy things, spend years doing it, then having like Adobe having the Figma deal canceled. So I bet you that was why the activist investors who wanted him to lay people off and get the earnings to spike, and thus get the stock price to spike.
29:07So tell us, what is Informatica? All right, Informatica. Informatica does corporate data organization. It helps companies find out where their data is. It helps them figure out the governance for it. And also to make sure that they're doing good data observability, Jason, which is making sure that your data sources are accurate and not spitting out complete garbage. Now that's pretty boring, I think, in a pre-AI world. It's a lot of buzzwords. Corporate data organization, observation, and governance. I'm trying to even parse what that means, but okay. You got a lot of data in your organization.
29:43We're going to somehow organize it? Yep. Their goal is to go figure out what you have, help you organize it, figure out who's allowed to look at it and interact with it, governance, and then also make sure that your inbound sources are not polluted and full of crap.
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30:37And now, you know, listen, if you need that CFO level guidance, they're going to give you that. So you can stay focused on what matters, building your team, building your product, and delighting your customers. You should not be stressing over spreadsheets with your P &L and in all this nonsense. You want accurate financials, delivered on time every time and you want to be compliant with your taxes. You don't want any last minute surprises. And when it's time to raise your next round and you're scaling up, Pilot's CFO services team is going to help you plan and grow with confidence. Startups that use Pilot tend to raise a bigger Series B and a bigger Series C round than the average startup.
31:12Why? Because when you're buttoned up from the start, everything gets easy. Focus on your product. Let Pilot handle your bookkeeping. This week in startups, listeners get$1 ,200 off their first year, just go to pilot.com slash twist. That's P-I-L-O-T dot com slash T-W-I-S-T. Interesting. As opposed to using the SaaS specific SaaS products, this would do it across many SaaS products. So they would take your Salesforce data, your HubSpot data, whatever, your Slack data, your Google drive, your email, and be able to look across all of it. Okay. I think I get it. Got it. Now, that was an important bit of work in the pre-AI world, but now I think it's much more important because everyone wants to use their internal data in an AI context to automate tasks, learn more about their business, and so forth.
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31:58The context here for Salesforce is that the company's growth has slowed. Salesforce is growing 8%, 9%, 10 % a quarter, even with some relatively large acquisitions, Jason. So my thought here is, as Salesforce pushes more and more into AI and AI agents, they need to expand the TAM and get out of just customer data. And so working with a company like Informatica will give them access to a lot of customers that have non-CRM data, and therefore they can apply their same agenda technology, back to the buzzwords, across a broader set of problems. And so I think it makes some sense. And it's only about a 3 % market cap deal for Salesforce.
32:37So it's not a bet the farm style transaction. Interesting. And we've been tracking a lot of M &A here. Did we make our M &A tracker? Or maybe you could just tell the audience like what were the stuff because we there were off the top of my head i remember there were two purchased by uh doordash then you had two purchased by open ai so that was four deals those four deals i think were all billion dollar low billion dollar deals so we're starting to see a trend of single digit billion deals happen just in the last 30 days you had the cursor competitor uh bought by open ai you had johnny ive by open ai 6.5 and i think the other one was$3 billion.
33:17Am I about right? Yes. The Windsurf deal was$3 billion, but I still think that has not been officially confirmed by the company. Okay. So that's in process. Then you had the Johnny Ive. Then you had DoorDash bought two companies. I forget which ones those were, but I think they were also$1 to$5 billion. Am I correct with those? Yes, they were smaller deals. Yes. It was Deliveroo. Wasn't that one of them? Yeah. Deliveroo, and it was a smaller company. I think Deliveroo was like$3,$3.5 billion, somewhere in there. Yeah. So a direct competitor but in a smaller market than the other one also by the way here in singapore it's a grab world i opened up my uber eats i opened up my uber and it was like yeah uh uber forwarded me to the grab app said we are no longer operating here but you can use our partner grab so i think this is one of those markets where they gave up and then got a percentage ownership in the you know uh domestic player, in this case, Grab.
34:13And yeah, you have to download and sign up for a new app, which I did. And there were two interesting observations I had about Grab. Number one, it sells insurance to customers for 30 cents a ride. And the insurance protects you against the Uber, the Grab, arriving late. And if it arrives late, you get like five bucks or 10 bucks. I'm like, who's buying this? This makes no sense, but there it was. Or if you're late to get to it, then you don't pay the$5 fee, which I got dinged with the$5 fee because they will not pick you up in a grab. It's such a high-functioning society here that all of the livery cars have to go to specific locations located throughout the city to get into the car.
34:58So I had to go to a garage lobby to a hub to get my car, and it was a block and a half away, and it took me a couple of minutes because I went to the wrong place. um so i thought it was super super interesting to have that experience and see some little bit of a different take on how these things should operate um dare i would say the insurance weird right insurance for well i almost felt like it was like a little bit of gambling like i'm gonna bet 30 cents to make five dollars that's exactly what i was gonna say i was like do you think because gambling is so popular there that they've sort of started to integrate the idea of insurance into because that's like it's like blackjack that's exactly what i was thinking well it's sort of like polymarket too like polymarket you're you're getting insurance so if i bet that three percent and the knicks hit or if i were to bet the pacers uh then i could have the joy of knowing the team that beat us eventually won so we lost to the champion so i would get like some yeah i hate those kind of bets.
35:59It just makes me obsessed more. Sad twice. The reason why I would buy the insurance is I still sometimes run into the problem with Uber in which a driver will accept the ride and then kind of like not drive towards you and hope that you cancel. And I understand the dynamics here. Oh, the slow roll, the classic slow roll. Yeah. But if I had insurance - I don't like the slow roll. I always complain about the slow roll. It hasn't happened to me recently. When's the last time you got a slow roll? Two weeks ago, I was trying to leave the poker room and I was trying to Uber home and the driver was like, we're going to play chicken.
36:30And I'm like, yeah, I got time. Let's go. So I just waited him out. Jason, back to your question though about M &A. I want to share a couple of data points that I pulled for everyone this morning. First of all, a reminder that we are still in a historically low period for M &A. This is a chart I'm showing on screen from KPMG that just shows venture-backed exit activity here in the US. And while the first quarter of 2025 with$56.2 billion in known transactions was the highest since 2021, it's still, Jason, not exactly where we want to see it. It's lower than numbers we saw back in 19, some parts of 20, and also 2021.
37:07So it's still a bit depressed. That's three quarters of increase, and it's going to be a blowout second quarter is my prediction. I think we might see that number double. You heard it here first, folks. Well, we have some more data because I was trying to do some work on what's happening in Q2 because Q2 is still ongoing. We're just over the halfway mark. I wanted to bring some more new data to the table. So I went ahead and did a bunch of searches on Crunchbase and there is a meaningful uptick this year, but I was doing my own data work. So I also grabbed some data from EY, our dear friends over at Ernst & Young.
37:41And this is a US activity in terms of deals over the$100 million mark in April. As we're seeing here, the growth in deal value is up 100 % April of this year, Jason, compared to April of last year. So I think very strong start to the second quarter. Okay. So the deal value is up massively. The number of deals is down slightly. Is that what I'm reading into here? Yes. 34 versus 42. So that makes sense. What that would indicate to me is maybe some of those deals that happened previously were aqua hires, low value deals, clearing out some inventory. The company's worth acquiring, but it might not be able to survive as a standalone company with venture investors on the board.
38:26But I will tell you, I've now had to make three decisions in three weeks about approving two different sales and then getting offers secondary during a series B, let's call it. um and so this is three delightful moments for me um i well i should say like one of them was a sale that i was displeased with you know what is a sale that i'm okay with and then one is a secondary sale that i am dare i say if we were in my group chat with other investors i might put an eggplant emoji on the which is what grown men do in my adult chat. It means I'm excited about this. That's the trend. I'm excited. I'm enthusiastic because in Italian culture, everybody knows a side of eggplant is a sign of being excited.
39:26The eggplant parmesan, the king of side dishes. Absolutely. It's just an eggplant parm homage. Let's not read into it any more than that. Use the promo code twist and jcal for your hymns prescription i don't think that is the worst vegetable it tastes like garbage i don't know why people like it oh spicy taste terrible food lon and i am making fun of alex is now turning into a dynamic beating up on friedberg we got it we got to scale back i agree guys guys i'm a two and a half year old i get flamed i'm gonna i'm gonna i'm gonna get an Alex impersonation that has nothing to do with Alex. I actually did a little comedy when I was in the Catskills as a child.
40:13I did it. Is that what I sound like? No, that's my nerd. That's my nerd Friedberg. Oh, when he laughs at himself, but he Yeah. This makes me laugh before we return the show. I like this twist format. We should have Jason be 12 hours ahead more often. I am definitely in la-la land because I was up all in the middle of the night. Now I'm going to be in this weird position where I slept for five hours, got up at 10 p.m. to do this, and then, yeah, moving on to that. I want to keep the... Deal flows back. I think Lena Kahn will be working at a venture firm. A woke venture firm will hire Lena Kahn.
40:55Are there woke venture firms? I don't know which is the woke... Oh, yes, there are. Wow. Oh, big time. How does that work? Big time. Yes. It works when you look at their team. No, you're going to look at their team page, and it's going to look like a Benetton ad. And then when you double click on it, everybody has the same title, partner. And then half of the people who are diverse do not have checkwriting ability. I'm not calling anybody specific out. Oh. Well, that's interesting, because is that woke or is that performative? Because I would say - Performative woke. right like that's not like if you're actually woke you would just have a diverse group of partners because that's what you wanted in your organization it wouldn't be a publicity stunt but what you're saying is it's actually performative it's not really they're not people they just want everybody okay you know what effort i'm gonna go for it i'm gonna you know i'm a little loopy we can always cut this out later no i'm gonna let it go i'm just gonna let it go i'm here's what happened in the industry tech crunch you're uh alumni of and i was formerly partners with in year one we did a conference together for yeah bad stuff happened anyway i went to it when i was a baby yeah yeah yes it was pretty great um i remember those days yeah the uh the crazy thing that happened was tech crunch writers which became like you know after the um leader of tech crunch kind of disappeared when i you know kind of went uh into the crypto world It got kind of taken over, became a little woke, like most of the Valley did during that time period.
42:31Hey. And what they did was they would screenshot people's team pages and be like, look, five white guys, you know, and, you know, two Asian receptionists. They literally would write stories like that and dunk and be like, oh, you know, look at the diversity problem. Then I literally was hanging out with VCs at a dinner. No less than 12 firms at this, like, group dinner. and two or three of them are goofing off laughing at the corner and i said what's so funny they're like oh we just like we hacked tech crunch like literally and i was like yeah how'd you do that they're like oh well we we now everybody in our firm's a partner and i said what does that mean everybody's a partner don't you have like levels aren't there levels to this game they're like are there yeah i was like yeah i get it i get it yeah there are there are like you're like a researcher an analyst associate you're a principal you're managing director you become a junior partner the hierarchy is exactly like how that works they're like right does it have to work that way i'm like i don't know like well i'm like so they showed me their home page and they're like Yeah, we hired two black people, three Asian people, a trans person, like literally went on a hiring spree for the most entry level positions, created a scout program, essentially, where they gave them the ability to.
43:59Oh, and they hacked it, too, to be you have check writing ability to write 50K checks out of the scout fund in a billion dollar fund. Right. And literally TechCrunch is like fawning over the diversity of one fund and crucifying another for this. They literally hacked it and nobody ever double clicked on it. This was always the issue with DEI. The attacks on it have been it's unfair to white people or it's not a meritocracy anymore. But the real problem is it was it was never sincere. It was always a front to get better press coverage. It was never about making the companies actually more diverse.
44:41Very few people in business are in it for moral reasons. People are in business for profit reasons. Now, the partner point that Jason's making is actually interesting because we did notice. I mean, we weren't stupid. But when Andreessen Horowitz just declares that their entire firm is full of partners, it does obfuscate really, really deeply who actually can write checks. Oh, there's a name shout out. Oh, spicy. Alex shouts him out. I didn't say any names You were talking about I said no names I'm at a table with 12 VCs And a group of them are talking about how they hacked TechCrunch by making everyone a partner I mean, that narrows it down, Jason, to just a couple of firms Alright, I want to talk about Circle Jason, we have Been going on about stablecoins Ad nauseum here on Quist And I just want to point out a couple of quick things One, we now kind of know When Circle's going to go public It's going to be, I think it's June 4th, followed by a June 5th debut.
45:38And also we have some pricing information. We now know what Circle may be worth when it does list. They have put a$24 to$26 per share target on their IPO, Jason, which at the midpoint gives them a valuation of about$6.2 billion on a fully diluted basis. Now I tried to figure out, does that number make sense for us? And I actually ran into an interesting accounting problem. So their kind of gross revenue run rate puts them at like a 2.6X multiple price. Gross revenue, which is the interest generated on the holdings of the stablecoins, I'm going to guess. Yes, that is the vast majority of their revenues.
46:22They could have fees as well, right? So if we were looking at a bank, a bank might have fees, like late fees, overdraft fees, et cetera, gold card fees. I have a platinum card I'm paying$800 a year for like an idiot from American Express just so I can get into the Centurion Lounge, which I'll probably use four times a year. So it's going to cost me$200 each time, which now I feel like an idiot, but okay. Maybe it is worth it. So the other one would be the interest on the float, which is also how a bank works. Okay. Got it. Now, just to be clear, their quote, reserve income, which is their interest-based payments from holding treasuries and so forth, is the vast majority of their revenue.
46:5880%, 90%, I'm going to guess. 95%, 96%. I'll show you the income statement in a second. But where it gets a little interesting is distribution and other costs. See, what I think is not as well understood is how tied Coinbase and Circle are. And the terms of their agreement are that if the USDC, the chief stablecoin from Circle, which is pegged to the US dollar, if those exist over on Coinbase's platform, Coinbase essentially gets the money. All of it? Or half of it? Or 80 % of it? As far as I understand it, going back and reading through the S1, I still need to do a little bit more research here.
47:36It's the vast majority of it. So that ends up with a big chunk of the gross reserve income that Circle generates from holding the backing currencies and bonds that back the stable coin going somewhere else. And you know how we think about Google's revenue on a X traffic acquisition cost basis? We might want to think about Circle in an X distribution cost basis because they essentially pass through a lot of that revenue uh all that's to say that gmv is not revenue and you do want to pay attention to uh net revenue versus versus gross so in this case jason if you strip out the amount of money that they're paying to coinbase and so forth and just get down to their kind of like adjusted revenue it's like a 6.7x run rate multiple uh for today which i think is pretty reasonable for what is effectively a bank um yeah that's literally what what stable coins are they're a bank Yes, but not because they can't give you money back.
48:36And we touched on this before. I just want to double click on this because in the Genius Act, there is a prohibition on stablecoin providers under this. It's going to pass bill that's going to regulate all stablecoins in the US. You cannot offer a payment of yield or interest on an issued payment stablecoin. So Circle is safe from being undercut by people who are going to give back 90 % of the revenue I think this is the part that's going to change pretty quickly is there, in order for this to work, you need to get paid interest on your stable coin. So perhaps I'm trying to think of why the government doesn't want to give interest on a stable coin.
49:16I'm thinking it has something to do with control over a currency, and maybe that's the last piece that a sovereign country has to incentivize people to keep dollars in their currency, which is you can get interest on it. If you can get load-bearing interest on your stablecoin, well, then it's no different than a dollar. So maybe this is the way to differentiate, but I think this is going to mean people are going to keep very low amounts of dollars in this. But there'll be an amendment to this, and there'll be a way in which Circle can pay the interest, I bet. Not Circle, I'm sorry. Coinbase, as the partner, can pay yield.
49:59There will be a yield product. I don't know how they'll do it. Maybe it's with loaning out the dollars or something. There'll be some complex way of making money on this. And this is a way for them circle to block other players. So you might want to, you know, give free deals to the top three markets, Kraken and Circle and Coinbase and whoever else, and then maybe everybody else gets charged, you know, less. So another way to think about this is on the Coinbase board of directors, Coinbase makes a lot of money from stable coin yield is Mark Andreessen. Mark Andreessen has been helping to staff the federal government and has influence over policy and so forth.
50:40So I don't think it's a huge shock that the companies that he is representing are getting kind of a good deal here. Welcome to capitalism and democracy, everybody. But I do think it's going to be interesting to see, Jason, exactly what you're saying. What is the innovation that comes next? But I do think that the Genius Act looking the way it does now is going to help Circle get public because there's going to be at least near-term confidence that their business model won't be undercut by a nascent rival who can just essentially say, well, we're going to give all the money back and therefore Circle's revenues go to$10.
51:10So encouraging. I'm really excited about this IPO. We had Jeremy O 'Leary on the show. I'll have that linked down in the show notes. Gosh, it's so good to talk about some real exits and talk about pricing, Jason, instead of just Lena Khan. Here we go. This is why, this is the lesson for the side that lost. If you are anti-capitalism, if you are anti-business and you plant that flag, don't be surprised when a bunch of business leaders who backed your before move to the other team who's saying, we're going to let you do M &A. We're going to let you go public. We're going to get rid of regulations of which there are far too many.
51:48You can debate which ones you want to get rid of. And by the way, you gave a bunch of money to that side, and they left you at the altar. Give us a bunch of money, and we're going to bring you in the tent. Big lessons for certain political parties. Build a big tent. Listen to the business community. The business community are the ones who build stuff in the world. Yeah, there are artists as well, but a lot of that art winds up with a little bit of commerce. If you ignore builders, you will lose elections. It might not happen immediately, But when it does happen, it is going to be cataclysmic. I cannot lie here and say that I am not absolutely thrilled with this administration's approach to M &A, IPOs, and regulation.
52:34I am. I wish the Democrats were like Clinton and said, you know what? Business matters. Jobs matter. We understand M &A is a big part of monetary velocity. And part of how capital gets allocated is the expectation that you can buy a company or take it public. And if we put that on ice for four years, you're going to break the industry. This industry is literally teetering or was teetering. If this had been another four years of this, I think the venture industry could have broken and would have been like half the size it was. That actually was a realistic possibility. So this is a message to Dean Phillips and my other friends in the Democratic Party.
53:18There is a path here. Cherish business leaders and capital allocators. Yeah, but you know, this is why I think that the GOP is going to get hosed in the next set of elections, Jason, because what business leaders want is consistent rules of the road, a lack of trade barriers, stability. And we've had one of the craziest hundred and some days now of this administration. And by the way, on the M &A front, I just, I feel like they're getting credit they don't deserve. Like you saw the US steel deal that's now a huge mess and the government's going to take a golden share. Like it's literally acting like China.
53:51How much are we getting, by the way? How much are we getting? That right there, the sort of gangster capitalism in which Trump is literally God King of the world and hitting Tim Cook for not going on vacation with him to the Middle East. And this is the most vindictive and petty administration. So I think you're correct in the bets that were made going into the election. I'm not sure that everyone who made that bet is going to be content enough to make the same wager twice in a row. Late breaking, Joby Aviation shares up 20%. I was going to do a J trade at four, five, six bucks because I was in the Middle East and everybody was talking about Joby coming to UAE and that you'd be able to go from Abu Dhabi to, this is years ago, maybe three years ago, Abu Dhabi to Dubai.
54:32It was a SPAC. It went out at 10 bucks. And I was following this company because I said, this is going to work. And it was at four or five or six bucks. Oh my gosh, people are in this like copter thing. Are you looking at the first page of their shareholder letter? Yeah, it works. Yeah, these things are coming, dude. I mean, I would like to try one, but it does not look like that thing is going to stay in the air to me. Oh. It's a miracle that that actually works. Better than a helicopter by 100. Yes. And probably it'll eventually be safer than an airplane by 10X. And do you want to know why? No, I believe you.
55:09I just, it does not look like it would fly. Please. Take a guess. Why would the quadcopter like this, and you can see a video of it here. There it is, yeah. When it flies, those propellers are facing forward, not up like a traditional helicopter. Right. They face forward so it can get horizontal, right, as opposed to vertical. So it's vertical takeoff and landing. When it flies, they tilt forward and you get that. But why is it safer? I mean, I'm guessing it's the multiple propellers rather than just the one. If you're in a conventional helicopter, that one propeller messes up, you're dead. This one, you got backups.
55:46This one, if you look at it, you not only have four engines that can counterbalance each other, there are two rotor sets on each. And I believe there are two engines. So they're stacked. So you could have, I think it's something like five of eight or three of eight. Like you could have three of the eight propeller engines go out because there's eight engines. And still be able to sort of bring it in. Easily. You could finish the mission, I think, losing three of eight. And I think you could easily land with half of them. And so if they start going, and you're not going up that high, these things are meant to fly, I believe, you can look it up at like 1 ,000 to 5 ,000 feet.
56:25These are not meant to be at 10 ,000 or 20 ,000 feet. What is the height they fly at? I said 1 ,000 to 5 ,000. Oh, it's about, it looks like most commercial flights are about 5 ,000 feet or below. It's capable of reaching 10 ,000 feet, maximum cruising altitude, 15 ,000 feet. Yeah. So they'll be just literally zipping New York Harbor around Singapore's Bay, Sydney Bay, and they'll just fly over the water. They also make no noise. So the big complaint about helicopters in New York is the noise level. I know that Toyota and some other folks have backed this previously. They see this as a major future place.
57:04And there was Archer Aviation that also SPAC. These two companies are the two companies, I believe, that will come out of the SPAC era that could be 10 baggers out of the SPAC era. What's the market cap on this thing now? Because it went up 20%, raised$250 from Toyota. Joby is worth, as of now, just about$7 billion. So shout out to them for a basically pre-revenue company. All right, everybody. This has been another amazing episode of This Week in Startups. I'm in Singapore. There's going to be a meetup on Saturday. You can go to GetRiver or follow us here on TWI Startups. Follow me at Jason. They'll announce the details today, I think, if you're interested on Saturday, Saturday, this Saturday in Singapore, This Week in Startups, all in joint meetup.
57:47Bunch of fans are coming to a food court. Thisweekinstartups.com, youtube.com, search for us and we'll see you all next time. Bye-bye. Bye-bye. Bye.
From the publisher
In this episode, we cover three major stories shaping the startup and tech landscape. First, Google unveils Stitch, an AI-powered web design tool with one-click export to Figma—signaling a major disruption for freelance design marketplaces. Then, Salesforce returns to M&A with its $8B acquisition of Informatica, aiming to broaden its AI data stack beyond CRM. Finally, we break down the surge in startup M&A activity, with billion-dollar deals from OpenAI, DoorDash, and others—hinting at a major Q2 rebound. Don’t miss Jason’s insights on what these trends mean for founders and investors.
(0:00) Episode Teaser
(1:36) Jason’s in SINGAPORE
(3:14) The Power of Shame and why we need “Ozempic for screentime”
(10:15) OpenPhone - Streamline and scale your customer communications with OpenPhone. Get 20% off your first 6 months at www.openphone.com/twist
(12:38) Google’s latest AI breakthrough: Stitch
(20:13) CLA - Get started with CLA's CPAs, consultants, and wealth advisors now at https://claconnect.com/tech
(21:20) The NBA on Polymarket and what founders can learn from the Knicks
(27:08) Why did Salesforce buy Informatica?
(30:03) Pilot - Visit https://www.pilot.com/twist and get $1,200 off your first year.
(32:42) M&A activity continues, and Jason’s spicy Q2 predictions
(40:57) Did tech go woke or was it just performative the whole time?
(45:22) Circle, stablecoins, and the perks of being pro-business
(51:27) What Trump’s “golden share” of US Steel might look like
(54:15) Why Jason is bullish on Joby
(57:28) Episode wrap-up and upcoming events
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Joby: https://www.jobyaviation.com/
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