In short
Podcast Episode Notes: This Week in Startups - Episode E2021
Episode Overview In this episode of This Week in Startups, Jason Calacanis and co-host Alex Wilhelm discuss various topics in the startup ecosystem, including technological advancements in augmented reality (AR), venture capital trends, and notable startups of the past decade. The episode features a segment with guests Anfu Nguyen and Cain Ardafio, who present their controversial AR glasses project that integrates AI and facial recognition technology.
Timestamps
- 0:00 - Introduction by Jason and Alex
- 3:26 - Overview of Harvard's AR glasses tech demo
- 10:09 - Advert for Squarespace
- 11:35 - Discussion on responsible tech use and privacy
- 18:30 - Guests discuss academic focus and future in tech
- 21:27 - Trends in AR technology and ethical considerations
- 26:10 - Advancements in AI and deepfakes
- 31:06 - Young founders and podcast evolution
- 31:58 - Initialize Capital's restructuring
- 39:28 - Founders Fund and CRV updates
- 42:02 - Analysis of startup unicorns
- 46:39 - Secondary market opportunities
- 53:00 - New Twist 500 members: Snyk and Nym
- 59:56 - TikTok's impact on music and creators
- 1:01:05 - Investment discussions with Chef Reactions and TikTok creators
Key Discussions
- Harvard's AR Glasses Tech Demo
- Developers: Anfu Nguyen and Cain Ardafio showcased a demo that allows users to identify people using facial recognition technology integrated with AR glasses.
- Functionality: The glasses stream video to an app that uses AI to recognize faces and retrieve personal information from public databases. This raised discussions on privacy and ethical implications.
- Responsible Technology Use
- Privacy Concerns: The use of AR and AI technologies prompts significant discussion around privacy and the potential risks associated with facial recognition.
- Awareness Campaign: The developers aimed to raise awareness about the implications of their technology and how individuals can protect their personal information.
- Venture Capital Trends
- Initialize Capital Restructuring: The firm is downsizing and focusing on returning to basics amidst significant changes in the venture capital landscape.
- Founders Fund and CRV: Notable funds are returning capital to limited partners, reflecting shifts in the investment climate and potentially signaling caution in the market.
- Startup Unicorns and Exit Strategies
- Unicorn Analysis: A discussion about scale insurgents and successful startups revealed that only a few companies have achieved significant revenue and operating cash flow.
- Exit Strategies: The conversation highlighted the importance of timing and decisions made by general partners in venture capital regarding exits and returns.
- Impact of TikTok on Content Creation
- Cultural Shifts: The episode explored TikTok’s influence on the music industry and content creators, showcasing the evolving landscape of media consumption.
- Chef Reactions: Jason shares an investment in Chef Reactions, emphasizing the potential for influencer-driven businesses that leverage social media for growth.
Key Takeaways
- Emerging Technologies: AR and AI technologies possess significant potential but come with ethical responsibilities. The tech community must navigate privacy concerns carefully.
- Venture Capital Dynamics: The venture capital industry is undergoing significant changes, prompting firms to reassess their strategies and focus on sustainable practices.
- Influencer Economy: The rise of platforms like TikTok showcases a shift in how content is created and consumed, providing new opportunities for entrepreneurs.
- Startup Ecosystem: The discussions highlighted the importance of adaptability and innovative thinking in building successful startups amid evolving market conditions.
Conclusion This episode encapsulates the dynamic nature of the startup world, where technological advancements and ethical considerations intertwine. With insights from young innovators and seasoned venture capitalists, the conversation lays the groundwork for understanding the future trajectory of startups and their impact on society.
Feel free to subscribe to the TWiST500 newsletter and check out the latest updates on emerging startups!
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Getting back to our discussion of where the industry is. I think we are at the turning point right now because private equity is coming in and trying to buy positions. We had somebody offer to buy one of our positions in our first fund at some discount to the last round, which was only 20%. Now, most of the discounts I've been seeing have been in the 50%, 75%, just bottom feeders. But this one, if we sold our position in this fund, that would return 1.5x the fund. We really believe in this company, but that fund's already at 1.2x, I think, 1.1x. So we add 1.5 to it. Now we've got a 2.6 or 7x fund with still some holdings in it.
0:45Maybe this is something we should consider for our LPs. Would be great to get that firm to, you know, DPI actually returned, not on paper, because that one on paper was kind of right around 4.95x. So my job is to get those two numbers to, you know, meet as best I can. I haven't had to think about an exit for a long time. This Week in Startups is brought to you by Squarespace. Turn your idea into a new website. Go to squarespace.com slash twist for a free trial. When you're ready to launch, use offer code TWIST to save 10 % off your first purchase of a website or domain. LinkedIn Ads. To redeem a$100 LinkedIn ad credit and launch your first campaign, go to linkedin.com slash thisweekinstartups.
1:36And Washington Post. Stay informed with trusted journalism from the Washington Post. Right now, Twist listeners can subscribe for just 50 cents per week for your first year at WashingtonPost.com slash Twist. All right, everybody. Welcome to This Week in Startups. I am your co-host, Jason Calacanis. With me is my co-host, Alex Wilhelm. He is Alex on x.com slash Alex. I am x.com slash Jason. Talk to us over there. He's got a really great newsletter called Cautious Optimism. And you can go to... CautiousOptimism.news. He does a really good job, so go pay for his newsletter. And today we've got a full docket.
2:16And for the first time, we're going to have, as we've gone back to doing a live show twice a week, Monday and Wednesdays at 1 p.m. Eastern, 10 a.m. Pacific, 12 p.m. Texas Central Time. And I'm really excited about today's live guests on the program because I think this is the most controversial demo of 2024. Controversial is the word I'm using. yeah i i think in retrospect the rabbit r1s ces era demo it wasn't controversial at the time it was exciting people were you know oh my gosh maybe they've actually come up with something here that's so new what is a a large action model you know you remember the whole conversation and then that kind of petered out and it became infamous if you will but this i do think it's controversial from the jump right so that might have been the highest profile launch along with ChatGPT01 maybe, which I think was named after 01Visas.
3:12I saw that on the Twitter that somebody said that they named it after 01Visas. But let's get started here. Let's talk a little bit. Maybe we can just start by you teeing up this demo that came out, I think, Wednesday or Thursday last week. Yes. So two folks from Harvard, Anfu Nguyen and Kane Ardafio, put together a demo of some hardware that brings together AI technologies and the second generation of Meta's AR glasses. We've put together a cut for you, so let's take a look and see what they put together, and then when you pick your jaws up off the floor, we'll talk about it. We built glasses that let you identify anybody on the street.
3:47The information Atul collects from just a photo of your face is staggering. Cambridge Community Foundation. Oh, hi, ma 'am. Wait, are you a Betsy? Yes. Oh, okay. I think I met you through the Cambridge Community Foundation, right? Yeah, yeah. It's great to meet you. I'm Cain. Here's how it works. We stream the video from the glasses straight to Instagram and have a computer program monitor the stream. We use AI to detect when we're looking at someone's face. Then we scour the internet to find more pictures of that person. Finally, we use data sources like online articles and voter registration databases to figure out their name, phone number, home address, and relatives' names.
4:28and it's all fed back to an app we wrote on our phone. Okay, so there it is, folks. The application I've always thought would be the killer app for augmented reality, which is you put on your pair of glasses and like my serial killer glasses I'm wearing today and above somebody's head, I might see above and around Alex's face. I don't know, mutual friends we have. I wasn't thinking home address, that creepy, but maybe the LinkedIn page if it's public. But here, a pretty great demonstration, something that's been possible for a while. But what's truly unique here is not the facial recognition. It's the back end going and combining facial recognition with sources of data, which I think is kind of what LLMs bring to the party.
5:14Right, Alex? Yeah. So the guys put together a doc and we'll have them on in just a second. And they talked about how what they've done now is just possible because of not only LLMs, but their ability to process huge amounts of data very quickly. So this is a really fun hybrid of hardware hacking, if you will, and also just intelligent, putting together of different bits of software to make a much greater whole. And I think this is going to inspire a lot of folks to build. But Jason, why don't we have the guys on? Okay. All right. Please welcome to the show, everybody. It's Anfu Nguyen and Cain Ardafio.
5:47Anfu, if you're curious, is from Nebraska and Vietnam, and he's working on human augmentation over at Harvard. and kane is from indiana and is working on a physics major guys welcome to the show nice to meet you guys thanks for having us all right so tell me how many uh days weeks hours months did you work on this project and what was the inspiration behind it yeah so um it was actually pretty quick to code it um since we've been coding for a while it's been coding for like nine years but it took about like four four days to make the code work and then um we spent the rest of the time making the video as well as also writing up the write-up on how we did it as well as the things you can do to like erase your information off of these websites so that the tool becomes completely ineffective and that was like a big part of our campaign is to raise awareness of it and also like solve the problem immediately but yeah and what was the inspiration behind the project uh me and anfield have been working in like this area for a while um there's a couple of different areas it touches one is on like the augmented reality side um like we started the augmented reality club at Harvard, we have a bunch of headsets, these glasses in our possession.
6:58And then another part is the open source intelligence part where taking fairly innocuous data and being able to extract way more information out of it, like home address, going from name to home address, phone number of relatives, that type of thing. And then the third component that we have a lot of familiarity with are LLMs. Every college student is familiar with ChatGPT and And having familiarity with that tool allowed us to integrate. So, Cain, you're telling me you were able to form a club that the Chess and the Dungeons and Dragons Club could make fun of. A nerdier club than Magic the Gathering at Harvard.
7:33There is an augmented reality club at Harvard. Yes. Yeah, yeah. We were the bottom of the barrel. I mean, this is a level of geek and nerd dork that I am here for. I would join that club immediately. I want to stand out for the nerds here because I was once a knitting club. I just want to throw that out there. And also I've played a lot of D &D. And so let's not, we don't need to get feisty amongst the nerds, Jason. Stop picking fights. I am bonding here. There was nothing more exciting for me than like Sundays when I knew we were going to play Dungeons and Dragons in the afternoon. I counted the hours when I was 12.
8:09But anyway, this caught some virality to it because you made, not only did you build the technology, you decided to go out into the real world and kind of be a little cheeky, a little fun with it, and kind of do what we call in the broadcasting business, man on the street. Which is when, you know, a journalist just talks to random people, you do a little street work. Tell me about the inspiration behind that and who actually did that, because that takes some bravery to go try this thing in the real world. And we saw a couple of clips of it. Did anybody get really upset at you or figure out that they didn't know you and that you were scamming them or you were using technology to kind of, you know, stalk them, creep on them?
8:56Yeah. So I guess part of the inspiration for doing this was to show people that this tech was real. It is happening in the real world. It's all public data. and this could happen to anyone at any given time already. We're just raising a lot of it. We also made the decision to do a more wholesome prank where we would go up to them and say like, oh, I'm a big fan of your work. I've read all your stuff. Like, this is great. Just kind of flatter them, make their day, right? And then have them go on with their day. And then most of the other ones, we just went around Harvard Yard meeting random people who go to Harvard and then trying to get to know them, basically.
9:30The big thing that we believe in is like taking technology outside of just like research labs and like computer science classes at harvard and like putting it in like a presentable way and like really putting in the real world seeing how it really works on you know literally like the subway guys but be honest with me was just just a way for you to meet chicks no no no but this wasn't to meet girls like zuckerberg created the book face because he said he couldn't meet girls he wasn't very good he was a little intimidated it seems like you guys have a little bit of game so i don't think you need this tool Yeah, hopefully we don't need this school.
10:05All right. Squarespace is the place to build beautiful websites. You know that. And you can bring your startup to the world with an amazing design and unbelievable functionality. And you don't need to hire developers or a web shop to do it. And if you do hire a web shop to do it, they're going to charge you an arm and a leg. It's going to be thousands to tens of thousands of dollars. They're going to disappear. They're going to change careers. They're going to ghost you. And then you're going to be left with a total mess and have to start over again. where you can trust Squarespace, who I've trusted for over a decade to maintain and really evolve and grow our web presence.
10:39Every business needs a gorgeous website, startups, schools, banks, projects, books, and you can now do it with AI. Squarespace is always at the cutting edge. They now have a design intelligence tool built into Squarespace. And so it'll get you a custom website built for you. That's gorgeous. Easy peasy lemon squeezy, as I'm prone to say. And we all know that your business needs more than just a great looking site. So they have built-in payment technology. So if you build something, you can sell it. If you start racking up all those sales, you need analytics to figure out where it's all coming from.
11:13And of course, you want a great domain. So they got you covered there. Even better, you're going to save a little bit of money. And everybody likes to save a little cheddar. And Squarespace is so generous. Squarespace.com slash twist for a free trial. When you're ready to launch, you go to squarespace.com slash twist and get 10 % off your first website or domain purchase. That's squarespace.com slash twist. We love them here. longest running partner on this week in startups. And we really do appreciate that. Like, honestly, it's more like for like networking, like, oh, there's this like, you know, super cool, like business person that I met, you know, what are they?
11:42All right. I like it. Alex, you're with us. Yeah. I'm curious about you guys being so white hat about this. Because often when we see in technology, someone goes, hey, I built a thing. And then they show it off and they give it away. And then people go out there and explosions follow. In this case, though, you guys seem to be very privacy conscious from the beginning. Very politely, why are you being so responsible about this when you have what is essentially the coolest demo out in the world right now. It just feels very wholesome. Oh, yeah. Thank you. I mean, this originally started as a side project.
12:09We just hack on things. We're not really privacy researchers or anything. But as we started showing more people and developing it further, we realized how dangerous this actually could be. We talked amongst each other and definitely didn't... We decided not to open source it, no publishing of the code to anything. And we just want the extra steps so that if this did go big, then people could protect themselves. Like, I wouldn't want to release a technology where people would just feel unsafe, even in their home and in public. That's kind of why we decided to take a more awareness. So the other side of that question, though, is you did show it off and you have provided a little bit of information about how it was put together.
12:49You guys said that this system leverages the ability of LM's understanding process and you put together different features to kind of make it work. did you leave enough breadcrumbs for folks to quickly follow in your footsteps and make their own homebrew doxing goggles yeah so i mean we definitely this is kind of like a calculation on our part to see like yes we you know we kind of showed like what parts of it um it was kind of built out of but a lot of that was just because in order for us to tell people how to protect themselves some of like the core machinery like you have to be aware for example like you know know we use like the pemise reverse image switch engine for people to know how to protect themselves they need to know that exists um and our calculation is that maybe you know a few people might kind of try to reverse engineer what we did but i think a lot more people maybe like tens of thousands of people will now protect themselves yeah no i think that's super fair yeah i was gonna say that i think is a long tradition in people figuring out if a lock like a master lock is easy to pick and they share it and then people go oh my god you just taught everybody how to pick a master log it's like no we taught non-criminals how easy it is for criminals who already have this information to do it and the strategy which you used here public databases etc and facial recognition this is what scammers have been doing for a decade now online they will wait till somebody is on vacation sharing their photos in greece and then go rob their house very simple to do or look for people wearing certain watches and it's just going to be exacerbated.
14:20You could build a tool that looks for certain extremely expensive watches on Instagram, find those people, find their addresses, make a list, and then give it to a criminal gang, which by the way, if we can just brainstorm that right here, that's happening already. And so this is just a great gift you've given to folks. We see this in confidence scams all the time, but there are a lot of positive uses to this, especially if people opt into it. And so you seem very entrepreneurial. Are you two considering entrepreneurship as a career path? Yeah. I mean, I started in high school and, um, yeah, we've been doing startups for basically our whole lives.
14:55Right. And what are you 19 and 20 years old? We're 21. Oh, you're 21. Oh, wow. You're aging out. So when do you graduate? Uh, I'm a genius. So I graduated in two years. uh i'm one and a half so about the same yeah got it okay well you seem incredibly bright so how about i give you 125k uh and incubate your company build whatever you want and uh you can do it while you finish school or you can just quit school and just go do it if you're serious that'd be awesome okay great as long as you i mean you guys got into harvard from assuming that you don't have some crazy criminal records and that you're morally and ethically uh you know like good people but we'll close the deal after we get off online here.
15:38But what's the reaction been? This obviously went viral in a way maybe you didn't expect. And then that means people on campus know about it. And you, I'm assuming, became higher profile on campus. I'm assuming some journalists called and maybe even some investor and venture capitalists like myself called. So what's been the reaction? What's the most interesting feedback you've gotten? Any famous people or venture capitalists or the school come knocking and say, hey, this was interesting but maybe don't take it any further what's the reaction been so it's been like really interesting i think from like just you know students and like you know our peers we've received a lot of different feedback everything from like oh this is like the greatest invention like where can i buy it like this is like the greatest invention i've ever seen to people saying like okay you know maybe this technology shouldn't even exist like you know don't even build it to begin with um so it's been just like very interesting seeing like all of the like polarization and then there's obviously a lot of people in the middle um and uh yeah i mean like Meta and like a cup and Pemise and like a couple of the other companies involved like have responded to journalists but nobody like none of like the institutional bodies have really reached out to us so mostly just like our peers and in media yeah and uh we've been talking to a lot of press we got a lot of inbound from people interested in it as well for networking I guess the interesting one is like a couple magicians reached out to us for like uh to use magic trick right because if you didn't know this tool existed you'd be like uh does your name rhyme with this or something like that like that'd be crazy right like well and you know it's interesting about that particular scam the clairvoyant scam or the fortune teller scam is they will be looking at you trying to read you and you come in and you give your credit card at the front somebody might at the front desk once they get your name and they know it go start doing internet searches the person might have an earpiece in like a hearing aid and they might be feeding them some information and they do that but the the way that trick originally worked my understanding of it is I would say, so you grew up in your, your Asian, your Vietnamese or Korean.
17:40I'm sensing, oh, Vietnamese, because you smiled, right? So you're Vietnamese and your parents came here. Now, if I knew the history of Vietnam or like, if you know the history of say Iran, if you meet anybody who's Persian in America, if you say, oh, did your parents come here in 1978? It's a little, they say, yeah, how did you know that? Well, that was when the revolution was. That's when everybody came here, 77, 78. And oh, you're Persian. So you're Persian Jewish. And well, those are 99 % of the people who left Iran were the Persian Jewish people because it became an Islamic state. So that's the sort of thinking.
18:16And they also know the top 10 careers. They know the top 10 names. So they can kind of play this kind of game here. You just close that loop. So that's very interesting. What are your majors now in college? What are you majoring in here at the Harvard University? Yeah, I study physics. I'm in a self-design concentration. It's called human augmentation. Is that a computer science? It's under the science department, yeah. But it's like you design your own curriculum and name and stuff. Got it. So human augmentation is your passion? Yes. Got it. Well, if there was an idea you had in human augmentation that's just not practical today, but that you could build, what would it be?
18:58You know, like if you could do something that maybe doesn't feel like technology is ready to do in the next five years, but would be pretty game changing, what would it be? I've been thinking a lot about like new interfaces to interact with AI. And I've built like five, six different major projects that were months long related to this. like smart glasses that listen to conversation and help you get longer short short-term memory or ideate quicker be more creative or like define any word and it's just like it just works with you and has all the context to like give you that intelligence so i'm very interested in that and i think there's a lot to do with that in the next five ten years okay there are more than 50 000 venture-backed startups in the United States alone.
19:46This means marketing has to be perfectly targeted. You got a lot of competition out there, or you're just going to fade into the background and your money will go with it. All your ad spend will be for naught. You got to make sure you target the right prospects. So how are you going to do that, especially in a business-to-business context? Well, the answer is obviously LinkedIn ads, where you can precisely reach the professionals who are likely to find your ad relevant. Just think about it. Wouldn't it be great to target your ads by the job title or the industry, the location that that company is, you know, and maybe even a very specific company.
20:20Maybe you got a list of 20 lighthouse customers that you want to bear hug, that you want them to know about your product or services. LinkedIn ads is going to help you do that by building a relationship and driving results. LinkedIn is the environment where people are receptive to business. They're not there for food or politics or entertainment or music, they're there to do business. A billion members, 130 million of them are decision makers, and 10 million of them are C-level executives. So start converting your B2B audience into high quality leads today. Get$100 from your boy Jay Cow, linkedin.com slash thisweekinstartups to claim that credit.
20:59Again, linkedin.com slash thisweekinstartups, no spaces, no dashes, terms and conditions apply because they're giving you a hundy. A lot of those lessons from science fiction films. You watch a lot of science fiction? I actually don't watch any movies, but I'm mostly building stuff. Two hours will take a little bit of time, but there's this very famous franchise, Matrix, where they do essentially like a Neuralink-type jam, and Keanu Reeves goes, I know Kung Fu. You might know the clip from TikTok more than the movie. Yeah, I don't know. Yeah, you've seen the clip on TikTok, yeah. Have you guys watched a full movie?
21:32Have you ever, have you sat and watched a two-hour movie? I mean, I didn't watch The Social Network. You did? yeah yeah yeah because i thought it was pretty interesting there's a there's kind of a fascination on campus with like mark zuckerberg like any like entrepreneurship minded harvard student a lot of them really aspire to be like him not me but like it's yeah it's a thing that's fascinating yeah i met him like the first year he was in silicon valley he was incredibly awkward wow and everybody just thought like this kid's weird um but he's incredibly focused and he's really good at copying stuff and then making it faster and better.
22:07He didn't have like his own ideas as much as he like saw Hot or Not, or he saw Friendster and he saw MySpace. And those services were crashing constantly because at that time, the web 20 years ago just really wasn't good with real-time feeds. The idea of taking a database of feeds and like stitching it together was like a query that might take a long time, et cetera. And servers were very hard when they, when things went viral, that things would crash. And so what Zuckerberg did was he just looked at friendster in myspace and said if i make this clean and fast and stable i wonder if it worked better and it did yeah it's kind of crazy like how like for example this project this is probably like one of the like shortest projects me and anthony have ever worked on like most of the things i build it's like months of like toiling and you know spending like you know a bunch of hours and money working on it and this was just like a couple day hack um and it got like a lot more you know traction with the real world so it's really interesting the way it works important lesson for founders um which is a lot of times what you think the world wants and what they do want like it's just very different you know and uh you have to like just keep trying different things and move on to the next one if they don't work but yeah keep i encourage you both to just keep building stuff each time you build something you learn something right yeah and a lot of times it's a second or third effort that actually works ar is very early uh right now when do you think it will, in your estimation, become mainstream.
23:33You started this AR club. Did anybody show up? Are people interested in it? Do you personally? It's just the two of you, isn't it? It's a club of two? It was a pretty cool club, actually. A lot of people wanted to come see the tech. We had all the newest headsets. And we ran a big conference with 150-something people came. And a bunch of big company sponsors came. Yeah, I mean, I think the curves for hardware, especially a lithium battery power density, is going to take quite a while for this stuff to really become just a normal looking pair of glasses for all the functionality that people generally want.
24:17So I think it'll be much longer than when we originally started XR Club, what our timeline was. But yeah, I don't know if Kane has thought. But I'm curious about the cost, guys. What was the actual cost for this headset that you built that we just saw in the demo from start to finish? We actually just used the Meta Ray-Bans off-the-shelf headset. It's like$300. It's incredibly cheap. They're almost in distance from normal glasses. You probably can barely even tell over the Zoom call. And when those are recording, does a light go on to let people know that it's recording? Yeah, there's an indicator.
24:50There's a white light that pops up. and it's usually pretty obvious that it's recording yeah it should be red i think they made a design decision to make it white to like make it less scary it should be red it should blink i think that's going to be the societal norm the genius of this alex i think is off the shelf these things stream to instagram and then you pulled up the instagram stream and just grabbed frames from it or i guess the language model can take a clip from it or can it watch it in real time oh um in our case we just have a bot that's running like no language model no fancy ai just like you know a bot that just takes screenshots of every like you know frame perfect so you have all the frames going in and doing the facial recognition part now in some places in the world they're anticipating this so in the eu there are some particularly gnarly laws did you start thinking about some of those uh and and did you start researching that piece to it like where would this actually be applicable in the world?
25:50Yeah, we did. We did see that Europe had a ban on real-time facial recognition. It's not the case here, at least in most of the US. Yeah, we just wanted to show the demo to see like, even if it was like illegal, I think like this tech is just straight up publicly accessible and publicly usable. Yeah, that's the important part. And this is how scams occur. There's so many of these scams, These people are now taking anybody who's got an hour of video or audio and making clones of people. And there have been a couple of attempts to have limited partners, the people who give money to venture capitalists, of spoofing limited partners, calling venture capital firms and changing their routing information.
26:33So, hey, can you change my routing information? And this is where I want my Uber shares and my Facebook shares to go. That's crazy. Crazy. didn't work but we did get a notice uh my family office from a venture firm that somebody had tried this and so that was last year who knows how good it is this year but there was also a report of people doing these type of um scams in what's called um pig slaughtering pig butchering pig butchering and that's when you uh a confidence scam where you have a woman connect with a guy they become amorous she starts sharing all her amazing trades they send the pig to make trades on a fake exchange they have them win a bunch of small trades so they turn a thousand into two thousand they turn four hundred into twelve hundred and after like doing that four or five times then they set them up for the big one hey you should put twenty thousand dollars on this one it's it's i think it's going to go 10x and then the entire crypto exchange is fake wow that is so much work to steal money i feel like it's just so much easier to make money versus stealing that's that's a lot of effort jason i mean not if you're in a boiler room you know in vietnam which i think is where these are occurring and some other folks and then they um they get them eventually to send tether because they're like oh yeah no tether is like this legit thing and then they send the tethers and yeah they move on to the next uh person yeah so so mark bowen uh says that this is obviously scary, but the workflow is incredible.
28:04And he sees the use case here, a potential one being, imagine you're going into an emergency room full of patients, and then you automatically get their chart history, allowing you to triage more efficiently. That's similar and way more useful than my idea, which was, I just want people's names over their heads because I'm terrible with names. And I would be such a better friend and just like person in my neighborhood if I just had names. So to me, like, there's so much that could be good here and could be scary jason and i just think it goes to show that the risk here is not really the ai models it's the lax data privacy rules in the united states all right gentlemen if you want to start the company uh it's a 48 hour offer you have my contact information contact me we do a zoom call if you want to go for it i'm here for it i got 125 okay right here in this desk drawer i could just ship it to you anytime we'll follow up with you okay great you can have like the world's greatest investor world's greatest angel investor is your first investor and uh let's see if you can make a product out of this or something around it i'm willing to take the bet all right well done boys get back to work uh you know and remember what my grandfather told me keep your focus on the books not the babes yes gentlemen yeah stay focused on those grades okay wrap it up cleanly here and you guys weren't involved in any of these nonsensical protests What were you last year?
29:24Are you staying focused? Nope. Yeah, yeah. Just in the books. Okay, good. All right. No, no, you don't need to be out there protesting. Just let's get this degree finished up and make your parents proud. All right. Well done. All right. Great meeting you, Jason. Take care, guys. Thanks, guys. Cheers. We've been doing two news programs here on This Week in Startups every Monday, every Wednesday. And there's just so much happening in startups, the economy, venture capital, globally. all of these things are critical for you to know as an entrepreneur because they impact your business, right? They impact the partnerships you're going to make, fundraising, and the Washington Post is an incredible place to get coverage of not just politics and the environment, but really business and technology from a real global perspective.
30:09And that's what I love about it. I need to understand these issues deeply. The Post is no longer just a newspaper. They have apps, they've got podcasts, they have newsletters, and you're going to deepen your understanding, you're going to be more worldly, and that's going to inform how you build your company and how you run it. So here's what I want you to do. You're on the go. You got a pair of headphones? The Post will read you the articles. I've been doing this. I've been walking around the ranch. I'll just listen to a Washington Post article. Amazing. I multitask, and I get smarter, and I get more worldly.
30:41And then when I go to a business meeting, I can speak on important issues. Go get a Washington Post subscription right now. So you can come across as smart and intelligent and informed WashingtonPost.com slash twist. You're going to subscribe for just 50 cents a week in your first year. That's 80 % off their typical offer. And it's a steal. So WashingtonPost.com slash twist, go subscribe today for just 50 cents per week for your first year. I love meeting people who are very early in their careers and are just very intelligent and just like, it's big founder energy but like do you ever just feel slightly old slightly you put their ages together that's less than my age and almost exactly yours yeah yeah but on the other hand we're optimistic though i mean how much do we read about like the youth these days can't read and then those two guys are just doing successive hacking projects like awesome that was great i like having a live guest we're gonna try to have more live guests uh come on it's got a certain energy to it i want to get some callers too i want to do a little call-in show like the end have a couple of callers come in live i would surprise us with the question uh you know like uh sports radio yeah but you know won't come on the show jason quite a lot of initialized capital because as it turns out that wasn't very nice yeah you go for the segues um initialized capital is trimming down this fits neatly under our venture trims down uh coverage that's a theme we've been talking about also last We talked about CRV returning$275 million out of a$500 million fund.
Read the full transcript
32:10And so initialized, Jason, in a blog post from Brett that when initialized started out, we were small and scrappy, comma, comma, comma. Over time, we found success and grew, but we lost a step. Time to get back to basics. Restructuring our team, smaller team. This feels like an echo we've heard from the smallest companies all the way up to Amazon and back down again, Jason. Yeah. Yeah. I think what happens in a firm, and that firm has had both of its founders leave, Alexis left. I think him and Gary had some sort of falling out. I don't know the details of it, but there was some sort of falling out, as partners do.
32:43Sometimes people get divorced, no big deal. Just take care of the kids. In this case, that'd be the LPs and the startups. Gary ran it. Then Gary left to go take a bigger opportunity, Y Combinator, a little bit controversial, I guess, to leave initialized to go do that. But it seemed like they had some nice talent and a deep bench there, but we do have a situation where the venture game is changing. There is a cataclysmic creative destruction occurring because of the lack of distributions and because of Zerp and the overhang of all of these very large rounds. So we have so many unicorns in the Twist 500.
33:20We're over 100 companies now in our twist500.com listing of the top 500 private companies and so you know if it's not working sometimes you have to shake things up sometimes shaking things up means changing uh you know key players and maybe players who got you there so my knicks uh as you all know i'm like diehard knick fans we have a player named julius randall who kind of led the resurgence in new york when kevin durant uh wouldn't come to new york with kyrie irving they went to the nets and we got this weird consolation prize, a player named Julius Randall, who then created a winning culture in New York.
33:56And we just traded him for Carl Anthony Towns, who is a much better, more decorated all-star player who fits better with the team. The whole Knicks community for the past week, including myself, have been doing call-in shows and trying to reconcile that the team got better objectively, massively better, while saying goodbye to two players who we love. And I think that's probably what's happening here. You know, some changes have to be made to make the company work better, to make the firm work better. And hopefully we can have Brett on the pod. I invited him to come on Wednesday. Hopefully he's around and we can get Brett to come on the pod and talk about it because this is probably a mature, thoughtful decision, but people lose their jobs or people get traded.
34:40They go to other firms and, you know, that's just the nature of it. And one of the most important things to understand as an entrepreneur or somebody leading a firm is sometimes change is the right decision and it doesn't necessarily matter what change you're making. I know this sounds like very strange because when you're a worker bee working for a company, you see change and you're trying to figure out how, why did they decide to make this change? Why did they go, you know, from remote to back to the office? Why did they go from, you know, seven departments to four or from three layers of management to two?
35:14And what happens is sometimes just shaking things up and changing the organizational structure allows you to build a better product. And it's like some people might call it change for change stakes or people just screwing with the system. But almost overwhelmingly, when somebody leaves a company, even somebody great, you get a better person. It's a very weird phenomenon because you're like, wait a second, that person was amazing in that position. Then that person goes on to do better things. And you're like, wait a second, that person is doing something better. And the firm did something better.
35:46How is that possible? It's a very simple, very simple equation. The firm learned so much from that person. Let's call the person John. John did a great job. The firm leveled up. And then you get some fresh eyes on it with Jane. Jane comes to the firm. And the firm became better at hiring because John did such a good job setting up the foundation that Jane was able to build on it. And John went on to another Avenger, recharged his battery, took those lessons, and did something better with their career. And so when I see these changes being a weathered vet of the Clone Wars, I'm like, yep, I get it.
36:22But I understand how other people see these things, you know, a journalist, a rank-and-file employee, another company, whoever it is. And they're like looking at the tea leaves saying, what is it? But what's your take? Yeah. Well, I really appreciate the talk about change because if you just say, make some changes, change for change's sake, people get very, very defensive. Like, oh, you know, why would you do that? That's a little bit aggressive. What if you change the wrong thing? The flip side is a team that's been in place long enough doing the same kind of work will eventually form patterns that become so ossified they can't really adapt or change.
36:55And I've worked at several companies that I've had pretty long histories. And so I've seen this in action and sometimes you need calcification just break something and then everyone will run around with their hair on fire and then you'll probably find four or five other things that weren't super efficient when you do that great if you can be targeted but if you can't find anything grab a pipe wrench it out you'll figure out where everything's broken and so i do like that in the case of initialized though jason uh last two funds uh both raised december of 2021 530 million the main fund 170 for the opportunity fund no new form d filings that i can find said they made 14 investments this year.
37:32Doesn't sound like they're out of cash. It's my read. 14 investments on average, a Series A firm like that, seed to Series A firm, you put it at four or five million per, they've deployed 75 of the 500. The 170, no way to know because you would deploy that opportunity fund in a very unique opportunity. This fund had, their previous fund had Coinbase in it. Coinbase, at the level they did it, was a career-making investment in the way uber robin hood were for me that was one of the great investments of all time of the last cycle there's only been maybe two or three companies in the last cycle that had extraordinary returns uber airbnb coinbase think are the three that when lps look at them stripe would be another but that hasn't been liquefied yet but stripe would be up there as well basically anything 50 100 billion yeah would be it and if you were to look at that entire cohort one of them's worth 150 billion happens to be the one i was the third investor in that's why this firm did so well when you have that behind you some big bets like that yeah it really does give you momentum and i think that's why alex was alexis was able to do his own firm sorry and i think that's probably why y combinator uh hired gary tan um is because he's a good picker yeah but i think the lps and initialized now have to think okay what we have to re-evaluate this firm from first principles again i wonder if that's why they did this now because it has been a couple of years not a odd time for them to be out fundraising if they are i don't know but let's say you want to go out there maybe your last fund isn't showing as much juice as you want shake up the partner list maybe lower the overall burn at the company cut half a point off your fees for per I can see some action there leading to a new fundraise.
39:21And if you're going to change the chapter, rip the whole last one out and throw it. Don't do it half measures. And this seems to be a pretty top-to-bottom cleanup. Yeah. After we talked about CRV giving money back, somebody pointed out last year that Founders Fund had given back half their very large billion-dollar fund. Ah, yes. And I remember talking to Brian Singer about that. Brian Singerman, sorry. And he, you know, I think it's a very mature thing after Zerp to realize these companies don't need as much money. We're not up against Masayoshi-san and SoftBank. We're not up against the Tigers and whoever coming in and dumping these large rounds, not taking board seats.
40:01So what is the setup here? I believe these will be the next two vintages of, you know, if you consider a vintage three to four-year investment period, I think we might have three world-class vintages coming up. One we're in, and we're right in the middle of it. And then the next two could be some of the greatest vintages of our lifetime. Okay. That's a really great way to bridge into what we're talking about next, because there was a fascinating article in the Financial Times. I have been critical, Jason, of unicorns, and there have been too many of them, and then raising too much money. But one thing I've never really doubted is that there are some really amazing companies in the current unicorn crop and we're going to see some great outcomes.
40:41So I sound negative occasionally, but I'm actually not. The FT, though, pointed out that according to Bain and Company's scale insurgent demarcation, which is$10 billion in annual revenue and$1 billion in operating cash flow, only two companies, they say, in the last 20 years have been built that meet that threshold, and they are Meta and Uber. Now, I, one, am fascinated by that as a threshold for having quote, quote, made it. I want to get your take on that. But also, I think the list is too small. First of all, scale insurgent, 10 billion in revenue, billion in operating cash flow. How important do you think those metrics are for deciding the true winners?
41:17Yeah, there's this expression that, you know, the markets are a voting system and then they're a scale. And you know, because you're obsessed with S1s, you did a great job on an S1 in cautious optimism today. Thank you, Justin. I appreciate it. And the bogey, you know, like what you need to hit to IPO, I've been told is a billion in revenue now. Now we're starting to see some people with less, you know, tee up, but that's what I was told. A lot of banks are telling founders. It's not true, but that is what they're looking for. But to have an enduring company, I do think that those are two interesting numbers to look at because you do have to hit a certain amount of cash flow to be a real business.
41:58You cannot be a money losing business forever. Amazon learned this. At some point, Amazon had to stop the break-even train. People gave them runway for a decade or more when they saw that nice top-line growth, but eventually they needed to say, we're going to have some cash build up here. And Tesla as well. Tesla was invest, invest, invest. And then all of a sudden, the J-curve turned around and I don't know if they have 30 or$40 billion in the bank, man. It's a lot. It's a lot. And so the J-curve can be violent in both directions. And Uber and Tesla would be probably the two best examples I can think of.
42:33Oh, yeah. Because Uber's cash burn for years was astronomical. And then Dara took over and some changes were made operationally. Things got a little bit less cash consumptive. And now it just kicks off cash. And the thing is, you mentioned Amazon, you mentioned Tesla. Those are companies that the same analysis put in the 1990 to 2003 bucket. And it said six companies met those requirements that came out of that era. Okay, I can tell you them. Okay, Google is in that. Yep. Google's in it. NVIDIA was probably launched around that time or slightly after. I don't know their founding date. Ah. Well, we know.
43:1393, so yes. Is Salesforce in that group? Do they have a billion dollars in trailing cash flow? I'd have to check their metrics. I would think so, yeah. Money printing companies, companies that are just compounding. are they all tech companies or are there non-techs in that list i believe this is an all tech list all tech list all tech list uh okay so apple was already formed microsoft was already formed apple was already formed um you can't count the youtube because like above my google may have google on the list already meta came after that that was 2004 founding i believe tesla was 2001 or two founding i guess uh okay so salesforce would by the way fit it's uh it did 900 million in operating cashflow last quarter and 9.3 billion in revenue.
43:56Okay, there you go. Oh, did they not mention the names? Because I'm just rattling them off. They mentioned just Tesla, Amazon, and Alphabet. So you and I are hunting and packing. But the thing that's more interesting, Jason, is they said there's only two in the last 20 years, Meta and Uber. And I don't think that's true. I did a little digging for us. Airbnb founded 2008. So more recently - Just became profitable. Yeah. They got to be getting close to a billion in cash. They have a billion in trailing free cashflow. And in the last quarter, they 2.75 billion revenue putting them above a 10 billion dollar yearly run rate so looks like ft made a little mistake poo and alex fact checked you so somebody send this clip to the fb editors oh i'm not done strike so founded 2010 processed over 10 uh a trillion dollars last year three percent cut that's 30 billion gross revenue and the company said it was robustly cash flow positive in 2023.
44:46Sounds pretty close to me. Yeah. Coinbase, not profitable. I see Coinbase is the only one that I didn't think of when I was prepping for this show. I will find out for us live because I know where the earnings are. This is why Alex is amazing. He just can just get this answer for me. Because the thing with Coinbase is they get these incredible custodial fees and there's a lot of corporate people who park their Bitcoin there and have them manage it for them. Like this is corporate thing. And I think they get paid a small percentage of just as a custodial fee which i think is just all margin for them i think that's all profitable i gotta think that's throwing a ton of money to the bottom line yeah so their revenue is north of a billion um per quarter as of you know q1 q2 this year and they're not 10 yet yeah no no so i think they're gonna miss on this on the scale side but then if you look at their free cash flow for the last six months it was um 895.7 million sorry net cash operating activities last six months so profitable enough not big enough but there's the shopify i think also meets meets the standards i should meet this i think this is too harsh on the last couple generations of tech companies there are more big names than people give um wait why am i gassing you up so much no i like it i was about to say like theses deserve more credit and that almost came out of my mouth i mean here's the thing the entrepreneurs deserve the credit uh the vcs and the capital structure and the lps deserve the credit for taking the risk but what it does prove is the power law and i think getting back to our discussion of where the industry is i think we are at the turning point right now because private equity is coming in and trying to buy positions and then i invited you to sit in our investment team room since you're launch an employee technically.
46:32And you get to see some of the investment stuff we're doing under our NDA and confidentiality agreements. We had somebody offer to buy one of our positions in our first fund at some discount to the last round, which was only 20%. Now, most of the discounts I've been seeing have been in the 50%, 75%, just bottom feeders. And of course, we don't even respond to those secondary ones but this one which one of my associates uh researchers you know told me about this weekend on sunday and today's monday and i said hey that would be if we sold our position in this fund that would return 1.5x the fund we really believe in this company but that funds are already at 1.2x i think 1.1x so we add 1.5 to it now we've got a 2.6 or 7x fund with still some holdings in it, maybe this is something we should consider for our LPs.
47:29Would be great to get that firm to, you know, DPI actually returned, not on paper, because that one on paper was kind of right around 4.95X. So my job is to get those two numbers to, you know, meet as best I can. And so I haven't had to think about an exit for a long time. Yeah. Yeah. So I'm questioning from the fund management perspective, do you go to your LPs and say, hey guys, listen, we got this offer. I don't think we should take it. Let's say it's a 25 % discount to put a random number on it. Let's say discount, but you're like, I think we should hold, I could return all your money plus.
48:05Do you do that or do you just make the decision yourself? That's literally a major part of the job. The reason the LPs hire you is to make those decisions so they don't have to got they're looking at cash in cash out right now in that fund cash in a dollar you're at a buck and buck 20 now you're cashing for a dollar is at two 250 260 feeling pretty good now do we hold on to try to get you back to to have this investment double again and now you know give you 350 or four dollars and that's where greed you know and discipline, you know, become the factors that they're hoping that my carry helps me to make a good decision.
48:52And this is where the understanding of psychology of your general partners is important because some general partners, maybe they need the liquidity, maybe the 20 % on that. Let's just, you know, say, let's just say it was a, I'm going to just pick a random number sure 10 million dollars sure so if they have 25 carry they say okay we're above the threshold i get 2.5 million do i want 2.5 million dollars this year the five partners want 500k each or three partners want 750 each whatever it is and then the rest of the team gets to chop up a you know a couple hundred grand uh for their for their troubles maybe um or if the person's like i've already got 100 million or 200 million dollars sitting over here yeah 500k doesn't do anything for me let's go for the gold i'd rather you know how you know and and so the this is why boards can become complex because you need to have the individual's net worth and how much this matters to them just like when zuckerberg got an offer for a billion dollars from yahoo peter till said don't take it zuckerberg's like well i don't have any money my dad is his dad a dentist or a doctor or something if i remember correctly yeah yeah he's i think he's a general practitioner or something a dentist orthodontist i can't remember so you know got a son of a middle class, upper middle class, you know, person, you know, who went to Harvard and, you know, he owns 70 % of the company is going to get$700 million to not take it, but he's now worth 200 million.
50:17So he literally held on and became worth 250 times that offer. And this is the really hard thing. So, you know, looking at this situation, perhaps the best thing for us to do is sell half our position or a third of our position and then, you know, let the rest and just RLP has got a nice little check. Oh yeah, now we're at 1.7, you know, consistently drip, drip, drip. And this is why, you know, we have to get the single and double M &A world going because maybe in the same situation, instead of a secondary offer coming in at 20 % discount, we would have a proper offer from, you know, Salesforce or some giant software company who wants to buy another software company say, you know what, I'll give you, you know, three times what you paid in the last round.
50:59I'm really curious now about the connection between exit timings and total DPI returns based on GP or venture partners net worth. because I'd be curious to know if holding periods are simply longer if they're wealthier. And the other version of this is a realtor data. In the old data sets that I saw, realtors that were listing their own house left on the market longer to get a higher offer than they did for their customers because they were getting a hundred percent of the gains when they held onto their own house, but only a fraction of a fraction if they held your house longer for a higher price.
51:37So incentives matter. Yeah. Show me an incentive. I'll show you an outcome. And And the reason they do that is because they know it only takes one buyer. Yeah. Only takes one buyer. And this is something for entrepreneurs to know as well. You know, think of a sale that was like an extraordinary sale, WhatsApp,$20 billion to Facebook. It only took one frisky entrepreneur, Zuckerberg, a bold entrepreneur, to do something crazy like that. And he told his board, I bought WhatsApp. He just told them, I bought WhatsApp. I just went for a walk with Jan and I bought it. That's, you know, baller. And, you know, if it was Microsoft, let's say, or if it was, you know, I don't know, Apple under Tim Cook, there would have to be a very long board conversation, you know, like Iger trying to buy Twitter at Disney, you know, which eventually he didn't do.
52:31That was like a year or two of conversations. Should we buy Twitter? Really interesting. You know, founder mode's great because it gives one person the steering wheel. The other part of founder mode is that if you give the wrong person the steering wheel, you may end up towards a cliff. But going back to our point about change and about how things get ossified, the thing that I actually have liked about the idea of founder mode is the ability to go, I know that's how we have been doing things, but what if we just didn't? And that is the hardest, I think, muscle for our company to maintain. And I think that's why we're seeing companies from small to large try to retool themselves so they can actually move again.
53:04now uh before we sign off for today twist 500 we have a couple of new members that i want to throw on one is the company you brought up which is snick s-n-y-k it's not saying it's snick and it is a cyber security company and it fits under a couple of things we've been talking about one sovereign seat at the table i think they raised some money from an overseas uh sovereign wealth fund and i do want to put together a cyber security theme for us i haven't gotten the name down but i think this fits underneath that uh what's really fun about this company is because of some of where it's based and so forth we actually got its information and i think it shows a very interesting picture of how some of the things we've been talking about on the show can yield better financial results so jason i'm gonna bore you with a um an income statement here and pronounce the name of the company because the spelling's crazy snick snick s-n-y-k so the y is an i snick and no c if it's not snick i will buy someone at the company lunch for butchering their branding all over the show but i don't know how else you pronounce that sure um and uh this is a cyber security company um and we're looking here at their pnl here their financial statements looks like turnover fancy word for revenue in thousands of dollars for the year ended December 31st, 2023.
54:25So they're on a calendar year, $220 million up from$147 million the year before. Yep. Just over 50 % revenue growth if memory serves. And that is a number that I think we should hold on to because if you look at the company's administrative expenses, which in the US we would call operating costs, the company spent less money this year than it did last year. This goes back to our theme about static team size and in general, getting more out of people. And so Jason, 50 % growth, more or less a reduction in costs, a dramatic curtailment in their losses. This company looks like it is going to be in reasonable shape to go public.
55:04And it did, I think, begin to work on its perspectives earlier this year. Now, the other thing - So we're seeing the J curve to just do a callback. The J curve, hey, you're investing, you're losing money. The total losses in this business keep increasing, but then the losses are slowing down because because the revenue is increasing. So here, they dropped their spend in administrative expenses, we're gonna think that's like where the headcount is 10 % while growing 50%. This is like a good recipe for lowering the loss, and then eventually becoming a money printing machine. If they do this again, if they grew 50 % and cut costs another 10 % static team size, they would be right there, right?
55:45Yeah, absolutely. The thing though, that I'll say is looking at this, I think it just goes to show how much work some companies needed to do to shift from the ZERP mindset into now kind of what we expect from companies that do want to list. Because the company had in 2022, 147 million in revenue and their loss for the year was like$267 million. That means they were spending over 400 against 147. That's a pretty - They were losing$20 million a month. They were losing$5 million dollars a week. So let that sink in. That's nearly a million dollars a day. Yeah, that would be right. Million dollars per business day.
56:21Yeah. I mean, there's 365 days in a year, 267 million in losses. Yeah. Yeah. And now it's down to just$500 ,000 a day. But the point is their revenue is scaling faster. So this is a company in transition looking to list. And that's why I think it's a good twist 500 entry, lots of venture capital, multi-billion dollar valuation. So I'll put it on the list. Awesome. And then I got one more really quick before we we go um the company called nim n-y-n-m sorry and this company the moment i heard about it uh during the production meeting today i was all in because it's doing automated medical coding and if you have a spouse that works in the healthcare space you know how big of a market this is jason also a company called epic does medical systems they're huge tons of spend here however you heard about this and you went boring so i'm very curious why this company which i think rules didn't uh didn't I mean, this is one of the great things about entrepreneurship.
57:15I will meet founders sometimes, and they're building something that would make me wake up every morning and want to commit seppuku. I literally met a founder yesterday when I was at Austin City Limits, thanks to my friend Josh from Capital Factory for inviting me. My daughter had a great time, my wife had a great time. Got to see Chapel Rhone, and it was the largest, large audience for Austin City Limits in history. There were like close to a hundred thousand people listening to pink pony club. It was epic. And the interesting thing about it, I got a little inside information is that they had booked her last year before she broke out.
57:51Oh, no way. So they had booked her at, I don't want to be more exact here. Cause I got some, what I think is inside information. It could be secondhand, but I think they booked her at like maybe one seventh of her current price, but she honored that contract. so they call this uh like planting seeds or something like that they they make these bets it's almost like being an investor so you know they will make people the offers a year out and then some number of them you know pop out and and become you know really giant acts and i was talking to guys i said well why do you think that happens it's like yeah you know we don't really exactly know but you know it's like you know it just happens always happens in music and i said do you want to know what happened he's like hit me and i was like tiktok i was like chaparron is the queen of tiktok and tiktok with their algorithm it doesn't have to spread like youtube does where people subscribe and views and thumbs up and comments feed the algorithm and you know you you hear from a friend about mr beast or you know whatever tiktok you do nobody goes to their subscribe page on tiktok it's the for you feed so the for you feed the algorithm has i think accelerated pop stars ascension and the person said oh my god that's exactly right because you know just like six months ago she was and i don't know if any of this is true so like people speculating around a table um after a couple cocktails in the vip lounge at uh austin city limits but they were it was very interesting on a technological basis because and an arbitrage basis She had dates she had set with very small venues, like 600 people, a thousand people.
59:32You can cancel those. She has canceled some shows recently. So I think either she's upgrading or moving those shows over to larger theaters, larger venues. And they said, you know, what they did do for Chaperone at this event was she was on like a secondary stage. yeah but because she had ascended so much she was the second to closing act tyler was the closing act tyler came out after everybody left every chaperone and was like i just want to give a shout out chapel she's amazing because she basically became the de facto headliner even though i'm sure on a price basis and on a stage basis and a billing basis she was second or third and maybe even further than tyler tyler the creator yes who's fantastic huge fan yes um and so you know we've got to see his set he also crushed it but you know it was like i don't know 70 to 100 000 people for chaperone and you know and maybe 20 left after chaperone to see him but it's still 50 60 000 people watching him and he crushed yeah the tiktok effect that was so real and it even actually um dribbles down into more niche genres so there's a band called bad omens and bad omens if you're into metalcore is a big deal they got really big off of tiktok and so suddenly everyone was like, oh, Bad Omens tickets went from like$20 to like$160.
1:00:50Their tours sold out instantly. It was insane to see the same motions, but so far away from pop, so far away from country, all the way into people shouting at you, Metal. I love it. I love to see more eyes on cool stuff. And Chopper Run's fantastic. So you got to give her points. Well, and here, I'll just want to share with you, we made an investment in Chef Reactions, who has 3.6 million followers. And I fell in love with this guy. Just asked him if he would pursue this full-time. And so I literally, as an experiment, gave him 25K, which I like to do as my first bet on really crazy ideas. And I said, hey, if you quit your job and you do this full-time, I'll give you 25K.
1:01:28This lunatic does it. Then he comes to our accelerator. I put another 125K in. He is making a multiple of his salary now, has two employees full-time, including himself. And all he does is reactions to people making food. Seems like a very small concept, but this one has 8.3 million views yeah and he will give a live reaction now this person i don't have the sound on that you're seeing i don't want to get dinged with anything but this person's put a non-safe tray on heat and melting like 20 sticks of butter in it and then he does his whole reaction to this and he's just like how terrible is this dish and then he rates it and says if he would try it anyway i think this person is amazing and i think that there's going to be an entire genre of these people niche people who then go on to do great things he's had every major thermidor hedley and bennett that make the beautiful aprons that you see on the bear just to give you uh like an idea of where he's gone with this business chef reactions no had hedley bennett crossover and his joke is like would you try it on a scale of what he tried on a scale of one to ten that's like actually built into the apron and you can like sort of switch it around and here he is like as a spokesperson and um you know he's got a little thing there that says work faster because that's one of his big things and uh he came to our liquidity like formerly known as angel summit event in napa i think you met him and he went to um the michelin stored restaurant uh uh french laundry yeah they're all huge fans of his they gave him his own custom menu when he went in there and he had this extraordinary experience and so what i love about these businesses when you look at direct to consumer businesses warby parker eight sleep etc you have to have a really unique product in order to make those business work businesses work now normal mattress companies maybe they can't make it work eight sleep is like that's a whole different level of like sleep optimization for quantified self.
1:03:36They figured it out. But you have to spend a lot of money on distribution. Mr. Beast Feastables, no money spent on distribution. Chef Reactions, no money spent on distribution. Zero. So he's got a new product coming out. I won't say what it is, but it's a really cool product and he's going to sell it direct. And I think this will be one of our great companies of all time. And I'm looking for more influencers who have low millions, but who do not know how to build a business or have never done entrepreneurship to come to founder university, we're doing our ninth cohort, go to founder.university, or you can DM me anytime I'm at Jason on Twitter, X at Jason on Instagram, and just email me Jason at calacanis.com, my email for life.
1:04:14I'm always looking to meet more founders and do more crazy investments like this at the precede year zero before you would ever go to Y Combinator or Techstars or Launch Accelerator. Year zero investments, you're not even incorporated yet. Hit me up. I love that story because one I now better understand the thesis behind the chef reactions bet that you made but also I really wish that when I was playing poker and he was sitting roughly three inches behind me and I was too busy to I'm like oh it's that chef guy okay and I just kind of kept playing cards I should have just stopped and spent time with them we got to wrap Jason really quickly though in the twist 500 vein I'm going to add names I think it's really important but also there's so many cool companies out there so some more names that I'm looking at to add.
1:04:55I'll tell you about it next time we chat, but Exowatt, Fervo Energy, Polymarket, we all know, Cobalt Metals, and Merge API, who I'm trying to get on the show. So there's so much going on. It's very exciting. More live news, everybody, coming your way. All right, everybody, this has been another amazing episode of This Week in Startups. That's my guy, Alex Wilhelm. Please, go pay a hundy for cautiousoptimism.news. It's fantastic. Thank you, Jason. I'm Jason. we found a temporary office in Austin now I'm just looking for an event space and if you have a building for sale that would be a good place for me to do podcasts out of and have small events austin at launch.co just share the building with me and I'll see you all next time on this bye-bye see ya
From the publisher
Timestamps:
(0:00) Alex and Jason kick off the news show!
(3:26) Overview of Harvard's AR glasses tech demo and club projects
(10:09) Squarespace - Use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain at https://www.Squarespace.com/TWIST
(11:35) Discussing responsible tech use, privacy, and entrepreneurial aspirations
(18:30) Guests' academic focus and future in technology
(19:41) LinkedIn Ads - Get a $100 LinkedIn ad credit at http://www.linkedin.com/thisweekinstartups
(21:27) AR technology trends, practicality, and ethical considerations
(26:10) AI advancements, deepfakes, and AR in healthcare
(29:37) Washington Post - TWiST listeners can subscribe for just 50 cents per week for your first year at https://www.washingtonpost.com/twist
(31:06) Insights on young founders and the podcast's live format evolution
(31:58) Venture capital trends and Initialize Capital's restructuring
(39:28) Founders Fund and CRV developments, returning capital to LPs
(42:02) Analysis of scale insurgents and successful startup unicorns
(46:39) Secondary market opportunities and fund exit strategies
(53:00) New Twist 500 members: Snyk and Nym
(59:56) TikTok's impact on the music industry and content creators
(1:01:05) Investment discussions with Chef Reactions and TikTok creators *
Subscribe to the TWiST500 newsletter: https://ticker.thisweekinstartups.com
Check out the TWIST500: twist500.com
Subscribe to This Week in Startups on Apple: https://rb.gy/v19fcp
*
Follow AnhPhu:
X: https://x.com/AnhPhuNguyen1
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/anhphu5/
*
Follow Caine:
X: https://x.com/CaineArdayfio
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/caine-ardayfio/
*
Follow Alex:
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexwilhelm
*
Follow Jason:
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis
*
Thank you to our partners:
(10:09) Squarespace - Use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain at https://www.Squarespace.com/TWIST
(19:41) LinkedIn Ads - Get a $100 LinkedIn ad credit at http://www.linkedin.com/thisweekinstartups
(29:37) Washington Post - TWiST listeners can subscribe for just 50 cents per week for your first year at https://www.washingtonpost.com/twist
*
Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
*
Check out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis
*
Follow TWiST:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TWiStartups
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/thisweekin
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thisweekinstartups
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thisweekinstartups
Substack: https://twistartups.substack.com
*
Subscribe to the Founder University Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@founderuniversity1916




