Lovable's Anton Osika on Revolutionizing Software Development and OpenAI Drops Deep Research | E2080

4 Feb 2025 · 1 h 7 min

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This Week in Startups - Episode E2080 Summary

Podcast Title: This Week in Startups Episode Title: Lovable's Anton Osika on Revolutionizing Software Development and OpenAI Drops Deep Research Hosts: Jason Calacanis and Alex Wilhelm Release Date: [Insert Release Date Here]

Episode Overview In this episode, Jason Calacanis and Alex Wilhelm discuss several topical issues in the tech and startup world, including OpenAI's new product Deep Research, the rapid growth of Lovable.dev, and the implications of recent tariff discussions under the Biden administration. They delve into the potential of AI, its impact on the software development landscape, and current events affecting the economy and startups.

Key Topics Discussed

  1. OpenAI's Deep Research
  2. OpenAI has launched a new product called Deep Research, which competes with Google’s similarly named tool.
  3. The product is designed to conduct multi-step research by synthesizing information from the internet.
  4. Discussion on how this tool can potentially replace traditional research methodologies.
  1. Lovable.dev's Growth
  2. Lovable.dev is a startup that enables users to generate software applications through AI without needing extensive coding knowledge.
  3. The company reported achieving $10 million ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) within a remarkably short period.
  4. Anton Osika, co-founder of Lovable.dev, shares insights on the company’s growth trajectory and how they are solving problems for entrepreneurs and agencies.

Growth Insights

  • Lovable.dev's unique proposition allows users to create apps by simply describing them in natural language, making software development more accessible.
  • The startup has amassed over 20,000 paying users since its launch.
  1. Future of Software Development with AI
  2. Discussion on how AI tools like Lovable.dev are changing the landscape of custom software development.
  3. The potential for AI to reduce development times from months to mere hours.
  4. The hosts contemplate whether AI can fully replace software engineers in the long run.
  1. Tariff Discussions and Economic Impact
  2. Tariff Chaos: The episode touches on Donald Trump’s recent comments regarding tariffs and their implications for global trade.
  3. The hosts discuss how these tariffs can affect startups and the economy, emphasizing the chaotic and kinetic nature of the current news cycle.
  1. Ethical Considerations in AI
  2. The implications of AI technologies on jobs and the ethical considerations surrounding their deployment in various industries.
  3. Concerns about AI's capacity for reasoning and understanding context in complex decision-making scenarios.

Key Takeaways

  • AI's Role in Startups: The integration of AI into startup operations can lead to significant growth and efficiency, exemplified by Lovable.dev's rapid success.
  • OpenAI's Innovations: OpenAI continues to lead in AI advancements, but competition is heating up with other tech giants.
  • Economic Dynamics: The interplay between tariff policies and economic stability remains a contentious issue, with significant implications for the startup ecosystem.

Additional Notes

  • The hosts emphasize the importance of staying informed about rapid developments in the tech industry without becoming overwhelmed by the news cycle.
  • They encourage founders to focus on their businesses while consuming news in a structured manner.

Resources

  • Follow Lovable.dev: [Lovable Website](https://lovable.dev/)
  • OpenAI's Deep Research: [OpenAI Announcement](https://openai.com/index/introducing-deep-research/)

Conclusion This episode of This Week in Startups provides a comprehensive look at how AI is reshaping the software development landscape, the implications of government policies on startups, and the ethical dilemmas inherent in AI advancements. The insights from Anton Osika of Lovable.dev showcase the potential for innovation in the startup space, driven by AI technology.

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Transcript

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0:00All right. So a couple of weeks ago, we had the guy behind deep research from Google on the show. Great interview. Great time. You were a big fan of the product. I'm a big fan of the product. Then over the weekend, open AI, everyone's favorite closed AI shop, uh, dropped their own product. And Jason, did you know that they also called it deep research? It's fascinating that they, uh, I'm shocked that, uh, in any way, uh, we would have open AI do something like steal somebody else's. I mean, It's kind of laughable, right? They just called it the same exact thing. Okay, sure. This Week in Startups is brought to you by Lemon.io.

0:39Get access to Lemon Hire, a platform with more than 80 ,000 pre-vetted engineers that you can interview within 48 hours. Get$2 ,000 off your first hire at Lemon.io slash hire today. Prize picks. Run your game. The best place to get real money action while watching your favorite sports. Download the app today and use code TWIST to get$50 instantly after you play your first$5 lineup. And LinkedIn ads. To redeem a$100 LinkedIn ad credit and launch your first campaign, go to linkedin.com slash thisweekinstartups. Hey, everybody. Welcome back to This Week in Startups. I'm Jason Calcanis. He's Alex Wilhelm.

1:12And we do this three days a week, Monday, Wednesday, Friday, typically around 12 Texas time. But sometimes I have a speaking gig at Stanford like I did today, where I was speaking at Jeffrey Pfeiffer's power class. So we had to push it back a little bit because I do this class every semester because they wrote a case study on me in the class, which is a very weird experience. But there is a case study literally on how I accumulated power early in my career that was written maybe 10 years ago. So that is a very surreal thing to have these students. And man, one of the students came at me during the class.

1:43It was spicy. Okay. I have a similar story. Not about me, but I was taking some classes at Booth Business School as an undergraduate. And we were doing, looking at case studies, going through, debating them as a class. And no one knew who this guy was the back of the classroom just sitting there and that it turns out he was the principal in the case study we had been going through and we'd all been ragging on the decisions he made and then he's like well that was interesting and we were all like ah okay but that's the power of you know tier one schools is that you get the actual principals to come in and do their thing and that's why i love it oh there it is here it is just a study in creating resources yeah man good job i will read that but uh yeah no it's uh been a crazy uh two weeks i guess today is monday two weeks after the inauguration so here we are on february 3rd we're two weeks into it and uh my lord the news cycle is fast and furious huh yeah we were joking about this a little bit before the show but it feels like one of those times in which enough things are happening in so many different places and in different directions that you need to be online essentially chronically to stay even fractionally up to date.

2:51Like there's just chaos is maybe the right word, but kinetic might be the right word as well. Sure. There's a lot going on. I think people forgot, you know, my nickname for Trump in his first term was Captain Chaos because he would say things and he would say things in such a colorful way. And then people would take him seriously or not take him seriously. And all of a sudden you would have protests at airports. You would have the stock market doing backflips as somebody uh i heard say recently he's the he's the uh stick in the drink that stirs it so you know if something's happening in the stock market like he's probably stirring the drink and today the stock market absolutely tanked because there was all this talk over the weekend about tariffs but as you pointed out on x this is like the third or fourth time he's brought up tariffs and done the saber rattling and it's the same thing over and over we're doing tariffs the person on the other side of the table acquiesces and sends troops to the borders or promises to fix something he doesn't like, and then the tariffs are off.

3:49So I actually recommend maybe once a day, if you're a founder, consuming news, put it into a nice tight 30 minute, 60 minute band, get all your news. You know, you'll get some of it here on the pod when you're on the treadmill or going for a hike. But man, if you try to keep up with this, it's going to rattle your brain over the next 206 weeks that are left of this. Don't say that out loud. I don't think I'm going to survive. But Jason, you pointed out over on social media that there's actually quite a lot more than just this going on. There's also been the NBA trade chaos that has been heard around the world.

4:25I'm still trying to sort out what the hell is going on there. I do think you make a good point that a little self-care, a little investment in ourselves, it's definitely going to be a marathon. So I think we should all breathe and try to maintain a little calm. download the calm app and uh i literally did a hike i always do a hike on the ranch every day with the daughters and uh then i was going to do my meditation and two of my three daughters did the meditation with me on calm and we had like a very nice 14 minutes together diet exercise sleep meditation focus on those four things in chaotic times in any times and you'll build a nice solid foundation luckily you can use eight sleep one of our investments you can use fitbot another one of our investments for working out eight sleep for sleep calm for meditation and for diet you can use nutrisense so i have i have a startup in each of these categories go ahead and take care of those four things however you choose um call him mr power outlet because he's always got a plug i got a plug yes i will absolutely uh have a plug for all the stuff but you know we uh we like to have founders on the show oh and then on the dallas trade just for people who are wondering since alex and i are big nba fans yes sir wtf okay so for folks who don't know luka donjic is one of the generational talent i think is the way to put it in terms of his disability to play play the game and was the only player on the mavericks that i could you know name because i'm not a mavs guy in the league 25 years old went to the finals last year maybe shows up out of shape overweight people say it's like 280 pounds or whatever so there i guess are some concerns about his fitness but lo and behold on saturday night or sunday night saturday night i think he got traded to the lakers for anthony davis who's 32 years old it would be like the equivalent of trading michael jordan or steph curry like he's that level in his prime so it makes no sense and they got a very little take for him and people in dallas it's like literally good at the franchise but i like the conspiracy theory that the family that bought the dallas mavericks from cuban care deeply about uh they made their money in gambling and wagering and that's maybe gonna happen in texas maybe not they want to build a casino with the mavericks as the anchor but maybe they are trying to sink the franchise in order to move it to vegas uh which is an interesting concept well there's a wmba team the aces play in vegas already and there's uh they have the hockey team there and they moved the, the, help me out Jason, the Oakland A's I believe are now.

6:57Yeah, I think so. Yeah. So I can see like a growing nexus of, of sports in, in Vegas, but I still really, even with that, I questioned the trade just as a sports fan. I, I, I struggle. I mean, AD is a player shout out, you know, good. But I mean, you don't give away. Top 15 player maybe. Yeah. It's, it feels, it feels like a downgrade. Anyways, we love having founders on the show and Jason, there's been a startup that I've been tracking over on X that has been consistently growing, I think, faster than basically any startup that I can recall in history. It's called Lovable. And they announced back in December, they had reached 4 million ARR.

7:32And then they announced just a couple days ago, they've hit 10 million ARR. So I wanted to get the co-founder on the show. So let's bring Anton Osaika up. He is the co-founder of lovable.dev. Anton, how are you doing? Super excited to be here. I'm a fan of the poll, Jason and Alex. Yes. So tell us, what does your startup do? Lovable is very simple. Instead of hiring a software engineer, which is costly and slow, you ask an AI system in plain English what you want. Then you get an app or a website out of that. And yeah, we just hit, as you're saying, like 20 ,000 paying users. And I'm excited to be here and spread some of my excitement about what we're doing.

8:08I'm going to show what I built using Lovable in a second. But just to be clear, are you actually adding something like a million dollars in ARR a week right now? Yeah, it's going very predictably growing 1 million per week since we launched in late November. Okay. And then Jason, because you see a lot more pitch decks than I do, how often do you see a startup that's less than a few years old growing by a million a hour a week? Yeah, I mean, that would be some viral moment. It would depend on the price of the product, right? If the product was a billion dollars to install, and that would be crazy because you would have to have this crazy pipeline of SaaS companies and seven-figure deals are rare, and they take six months to 12 months typically to close.

8:47if you had a product that was a thousand dollars getting a thousand people to spend a thousand dollars a month or a thousand dollars a year is a little bit easier but still hard so yeah hyper growth is hyper growth it's rare to show this off jason i'm going to show you what i built because you know my coding skills are absolutely you know top of the top of the pinnacle here is a game that i made this morning using lovable.dev and i'm going to show off my awesome snake game if you're on the audio version i made snake with obstacles that's my major innovation in the gaming space and as you can see it works jason it's live on the browser and uh you can crash and die and uh do pretty well but anton there's a there's a flaw in this that we wanted to talk about yeah so so you have a leaderboard on the right side but from what i understood alex this is not something you have connected to the back end with a database where the leaderboard is stored globally maybe it works just on your computer but you asked me like okay can we change this and i said sure we can do it live on the stream.

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11:01So we're going to try to do this live, Jason. The point is my leaderboard doesn't work because I what I'm doing. So here is the Lovable interface. Again, if you're on the audio version, there is a canvas on the right side where the AI builds stuff for you. And then on the left, I have a chat with Lovable's AI talking through what's going on. So my leaderboard doesn't work for my snake game. And I have signed up for Supabase, Anton. And now I need to know what I should do to make this work as a non-developer. Okay. So just stepping back for a second, Anton, you basically put in a text prompt and it writes code.

11:34Yeah. So that's what you can see on the left out if you zoom in alex you can see like what uh what alex has been asking the ai to do and then it's been iteratively changing the entire application that's shown on the right hand side it's slick jason like i like i actually knew how to i mean we use a lot of ai here at twist but i mean like this was something that i could pull together as a non-developer quickly and um it was fun so so we go big super base that's uh and like the standard i think half of white companies companies, they use Superbase. So here you select your project that you created with Superbase.

12:10And then you don't need to touch Superbase more after that. If you want to have low-level granular access to the data yourself, you can go into that interface. But now the AI is going to handle the setup of the backend system, which you, Alex, you own all the data that's stored in that backend system. And then every time that you ask something, of course, the AI has to think for a while. Okay, so while I'm going to stop sharing, we'll come back to this but i want to talk about how you managed to get to to where you are because the company launched three times anton and it seems the third time was the the magic moment so can you just talk us through a little bit about how you went from a couple of launches that didn't have a major impact to the one that came later last year that ended up growing to 10 million err yeah sure so so uh before i started the company around this i actually launched the fourth time or the first time which was just an oh showing off an open source project that was called gpt engineer So this isn't at all the same product, but it was the first open source project that really captured the mind space of people outside of tech, I think, in that large language models.

13:12They can start writing code. So that was back in 2022. But now we launched three times last year with a version kind of prompt to application. And it still had a completely different name. And each time we launched the first and second time, it was behind a wait list. and the product we was like good people liked it but we we wanted to only do a full full-on launch when we knew it was really good we had solved some of the big roadblocks from the second launch which is that the ai gets stuck and so on sure and then and then we launched in 21st of november and since then it's going going straight up so then i want to talk about doing this inside of europe because one thing we've talked about a lot i mean here on the show frankly is that europe does seem to be a little bit behind in the realm of AI, leading to tweets like this showing, you know, the US has open AI and XAI and China has DeepSeek, and then Europe only has these impossible to open bottles.

14:09You said that you're committed to proving this wrong. So I'm just curious, what's it like building an AI startup in Europe today with the regulatory load? And does the company's quick growth show that it's more possible than some people thought? Yeah, I sure hope so. So I think it's definitely a bit of hard mode to do it from do AI startups from Europe because you get it's much harder to break through the noise. People are generally less ambitious, like the ambition density is usually lower. And so you need, but the talent, like the raw talent is there. So you need to find the raw talent and light the fire and increase the ambition level.

14:46And I definitely think there's going to be a lot more acceleration coming out of Europe. And yeah, on your point about the regulatory problems, I think they, from where we are at now, mostly affect consumers in Europe. So like there might be a point in time where we only release something outside of Europe, which will be very sad, right? But it's not affecting our revenue in the same way, frankly. So explain to me the product a little bit more. Who is this product aimed at? And then how much are you charging for it? So this product is used by tons of different groups, entrepreneurs that want to build a company or build even a SaaS startup.

15:27They don't have to find a great developer, which is super hard. They can just start building the product all the way to the first version with our tool. And then they can onboard engineers to the co-base with their tool of choice. So anyone who's an entrepreneur and hustler loves this tool. we also see designers and product managers they who've been using figma instead going straight to building the real thing by just prompting and they're getting a beautiful user interface and finally agencies and freelancers that usually took days to deliver projects or weeks they can ship ship things in in less than a day and that's uh those are like all different big big user groups that uh and how much does it cost so it starts at 20 dollars per month and then it goes up based on the ai consumption which is like extremely expensive for from our side i think you just tried a screenshot on that alex uh to 900 per month and so the concept is somebody who wants to prototype or build an app they want to build a fitness app a sleeping app a small game instead of hiring a developer team they can go in there build it themselves and then maybe hand it off to a developer team if they want to finalize it i guess that's the piece that i'm always wondering because in a native language model whether using gemini or chat gpt or even a code uh like replit you know these features have existed you can uh have it build prototypes but then what where when does it move from being a toy where you can build like you know interesting little projects and be like wow it made it to hey this is production quality and it can go there has that sort of final piece been crossed yet and or does it still require you to have a developer and a dev team in your mind no so there's like hundred thousand k dollar projects that are shipped with our with our tool completely and i could share my screen just to showcase a few of the commercial applications that people have built so here's just an example from our christmas hackathon here and i'm showing a screen sharing uh a application that is a hackathon website built with lovable of course where hundreds of people built pretty interesting things and just bringing out a few of those someone built a fully commercial uh venture fundraise crm here with with lovable sending letters online where you just describe the ad postal address and then you get it shipped by connecting to existing apis was built and like learning languages and social media tone of voice guideline generators with AI.

18:05So these are some examples of commercial products that have been built all the way with the lovable. Jason, I couldn't have told you that some of those were actually made with an AI problem versus a designer. And that makes me kind of fret for my friends who currently make their money designing websites. I must add that in some cases, you need a lot of devotion, if you're not a technical, to go through all the hurdles and maybe read up on how to get around some types of problems that the AI runs into. But with sufficient patience, you're going to get through it. Well, I mean, if you think about startups writ large, you know, 20 years ago, getting a team of developers, making wireframes and building some basic functionality was, you know, the first three to six months of the journey and then connecting with some consumers.

18:52And of course here now with AI, you can compress that to three or four hours and then maybe even let some people play with it and get some feedback. but you still have to do all the other pieces of the puzzle marketing the product customer support selling it and i guess supporting it so this is um the beginning of the end of you know what i'll call commodity software and we knew that was coming you know if you want to create an app or a timer you can go find a timer online but here you could just make a timer and that's kind of interesting because in the early days of the internet, if you think about it, Alex, you could go make a landing page on MySpace or GeoCities, one of these hosted ones.

19:36And then all of a sudden, Squarespace gave you the ability to have your own domain name, pop it up and have a gorgeous looking website that previously would have cost a couple of million dollars. So why wouldn't the applications get built this quickly? Makes total sense to me. All right. The big game is almost here and it's now or never. Don't miss out on the Super Bowl with prize picks. It's the best place to win cash while watching the big game. I can't wait. Okay, sports fans, let's talk about prize picks. If you don't know what it is, it's really, really fun. It is the best way to get real money action while watching your favorite games.

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21:25Download the app today and use the code TWIST to get$50 instantly after you play your first$5 lineup. That's right. $50 guaranteed. You don't even have to win. PricePix, run your game. anton do you think that in the future people are going to just roll their own software for everything like you showed the the venture fundraising crm i mean am i going to eventually just have a suite of applications that are just alex's tools that are all kind of built by myself hosted by myself and hold all my own data i can't decide if that's an exciting feature or one that sounds like a lot of work yeah i mean i i let me get get to that i just want to echo what you said Jason with software and SaaS is just going to be absolutely disrupted the amount of software great software much better software is going to explode but the prices are going to absolutely collapse I think there is a case for people customizing kind of building almost their own software but one of the pieces even though the engineering time is kind of almost reduced to zero thanks to AI there's a cost of building good software which is to test it with a human us humans we were kind of the bottleneck for the for software and that's typically what the product manager does and now now i think it's more like an ai builder or that is really good at understanding and testing with users so that's going to remain and we're like a lovable we're very bullish on finding who are the best people building with our tools so tomorrow we're launching something where we can easier where we can launch your lovable apps and get feedback from users and then i i think what you're going to see is that single people companies are with great where the founder has a great product taste like single person SaaS companies and being able to launch and market them just thanks to the wisdom of the crowds figuring out where the best high value SaaS products are.

23:11And that's launching tomorrow. Yeah, that's launching tomorrow. Well, I broke a little news here on the show, Jason. Yeah, it's a really interesting concept to be able to use text prompts to build code bases and then deploy them to the wild and things like, you know, Replit and Supbase or Supabase and all these things are just abstracting it. And it's apparent that, or at least to me, it's apparent that the future programming language is going to be English. Yes. And you're going to be able to just describe what you want and get it. Now, of course, you will have features and refinement that humans will do in the last stages, but just like people used to be able to create mock-ups and hand them to developers or, you know, designs and hand them to developers to be built this is um going to speed that whole process up and instead of needing a 12 person team to build a modern app company which is kind of what you need about 12 people you're going to need two yeah that's going to unlock what we talked about last week uh alex which is all those little nooks and crannies the long tail the the skiing app the cross-country skiing app the cross-country skiing app for this specific mountain in france you know for this group of people and retirees at this retirement community they're going to have their own dedicated app for them and it will just be this long tail of apps and products and services like you're saying that could be bespoke or that could be for you know just pickleball just in austin or just in northern austin etc so uh very cool stuff and uh great job uh to the team thanks yeah can i just ask is there any app that you want built now that's so cheap and easy to do an app for me to be built um i am i don't have one off the top of my head no okay i just did a landing page for founder university and i looked at it and i was like huh that landing page would be you know last year or two years ago if i asked some average member of our team to make a landing page what they would have built so i do think you know the refinement of design is the piece i'm kind of interested in and i also did a a quick one where i said make me a fasting app And it used Xero as its inspiration, but it didn't have great design.

25:23And so the design piece, I think, will be really interesting, whether it happens in Adobe or Canva or inside of Lovable or some combination. The ability to make world-class design is the other big unlock as opposed to, let's call it, six, seven out of ten level design. And that takes taste, right? and we'll see if the machine can have taste eventually. Anton, just before we let you go, two things. One, that worked and now my leaderboard functions. So thank you. And two, there's been a lot of conversation about the potential for churn amongst fast growing AI startups. And you guys are one of the fastest growing out there.

26:03So just before you go, what's churn like amongst your customer base today? And is it changing, getting better or getting worse as time goes on? Yeah, so we're seeing this smiling retention curves. are not that much smiling but they're flattened and there's a lot of people that come in and they're like oh there's a new ai tool i want to try it but for us which is uncommon there's a at 45 percent of the users uh they that's where the retention line completely flattens out so that's that's that's how it looks right now and the reason for people the 60 or the 55 percent leaving is currently that there are places where as a non-technical person it's very hard to kind of build you out your entire dream but but this this is absolutely changing super fast so in a few weeks or so like more and more non-technical people are going to be able to build out full full size companies that's gonna be awesome uh congratulations on the early success and uh we'll look forward to following your progress well done thanks anton all right jason You, my friend, wanted to talk about sovereign wealth funds and I am all here for it.

27:14So for folks who need to catch up today at the Oval Office, the president announced the creation of a sovereign wealth fund here in the US. Jason, you had ideas on how to fund this thing, natural resources, crypto. Yeah. You seem bullish. First, we should start with what is a sovereign wealth fund and what's the purpose of it? So if your country isn't in 36, 37, 38 trillion dollars in debt and you have some natural resource, let's say Norway with their oil reserves or Australia with their mining reserves. They have rare earth minerals there. It's a pretty big landmass. Those are owned by the country.

27:53So what do we have in America? Well, I think our oil is mostly privately owned, but we do have land that we own. A large percentage of land in the United States is owned. Or you could take some amount of taxpayer dollars and put that into a sovereign wealth fund. So what is the point of a sovereign wealth fund? Typically, you have a sovereign wealth fund because you have excess capital and you need to do something with it. We do not have excess capital. We have massive debt. So this is very strange to be bringing up right now because what are we going to do? Go into debt, create a sovereign wealth fund.

28:26Saudi has a massive sovereign wealth fund because they're sitting on top of oil same with the UAE same with Qatar Qatar those places then want to deploy with their sovereign wealth fund intelligently the people's share of that in order to get a return or to achieve strategic interest so the reason you have it is because you have excess capital and the reason you deploy it is to grow it for your people to end or create some sustainable future. Hey, founders, I want to share with you an experience that I love. And that's when I get ads that are relevant to me, not some nonsense that is not targeted.

29:07The other day, I got an ad for a fund management platform. And it was a new one that I hadn't heard of. And I manage a fund. So I was able to schedule a call with them. That's amazing. It's not rocket science. It's just targeting. And how did that happen? It happened on LinkedIn. If your business is marketing to other businesses, doing B2B advertising, LinkedIn ads is amazing because it guarantees that you reach the right audience. I don't need an ad for HR tools as an example, right? There are other people who work in HR. I work in venture. So you want the HR people to get the HR ads. You want the venture capitalists to get the fund management software and services ads.

29:44Makes total sense. And LinkedIn's advertising tools will connect you to decision makers based on their firma graphics. So you may never have heard that term before. That's your job title, your industry, your company size, and more. LinkedIn has two things that you need to grow this year. First, reach. LinkedIn has over a billion members, 130 million of them are decision makers, and of course, 10 million are C-level executives. And number two, LinkedIn has impact. B2B marketers report two to five times higher return on ad spend compared to other social platforms so you don't waste your money. Plus, 79 % of B2B marketers say LinkedIn is the best platform for paid media.

30:26LinkedIn allows you to build the right relationships, drive results, and reach your customers. So start converting your B2B audience into high-quality leads today. We'll even give you a$100 credit on your next campaign. Go to linkedin.com slash thisweekinstartups to claim your credit. That's linkedin.com slash this week in startups terms and conditions do apply and alaska has this right so alaska gives a dividend i think to uh you can look it up what it is but there is a universal basic payment in alaska because of i guess some of the mineral rights that are there that are owned by the state um and the state of texas actually owned some uh land with oil in it and they put it into a trust for university of texas so there are local state level sovereign wealth funds essentially trusts, I guess, it might be how they're described.

31:14But this makes no sense for the United States right now, because we have debt. If we had excess money, like let's say we own a bunch of prime real estate in major cities for the government, and we don't need that office space because we've downsized the government, and some number of people are working from home, if we sell that, well, we should take that cash, not invest it in venture capital funds like the one I run or private equity funds or real estate funds. We should just pay down the debt so we have less interest payments. That makes more sense. So this seems like a bit of a boondoggle.

31:49However, here's why it's coming up. TikTok. Ah, good. Yes. The president says, we'll give you a license for TikTok. We get half of TikTok shares when it goes public. So it goes public. It's worth, He says a trillion dollars. People privately say a hundred billion. Let's pick 200 billion as a number. United States has a hundred billion dollar sovereign wealth fund now. And we give a billion dollars to each of a hundred venture capitalists, private equity, real estate investors to invest it with the hopes that the interest on that is greater than the interest we're paying on our loans for our debt.

32:29If not, we should just take the shares of TikTok, sell them on the open market take the 100 billion and pay down our debt so we pay less so this has terrible um ramifications and downstream effects um that we should also consider why would we have the government doing the job that we as a nation have an elite practice in private right we want smaller government in private companies doing this so It's not like there's a lack of venture capitalist, private equity folks that our sovereign wealth fund needs to exist. It doesn't need to exist, and so it makes no sense. Well, one, agreed. I don't think this is what we should be doing with our time and money right now.

33:14But if you are the president and you do want to have more influence on the market, more leverage to enact change and to kind of push things around the way you want to, having a personal piggy bank, which is sovereign wealth fund writ large, I can kind of see it. But I really struggled to see how we're going to find the money to finance this thing. My question that I'm struggling with a little bit is, does this play into the whole idea of national, you know, Bitcoin or crypto trust? Could those be melded together? Should we pursue that? To me, it seems a little risky for the national bank, but.

33:46Yeah, I mean, we own a certain number of Bitcoins because of like Silk Road and other seizures. So there's an argument, if you think it's going to appreciate and it's strategic to own it, that we take that strategic reserve and put it into this and then have somebody who's super intelligent manage it. So you would hire somebody from the private sector or a couple of people from the private sector to make an investment committee like the one that exists for CalPERS, California's retirement fund, or one that exists Mubadala for the UAE and Abu Dhabi and their sovereign wealth fund. So you hire really smart capital allocators to make the right decision of when to sell an asset or when to hold an asset.

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34:30Sure, that's possible. Or you could come up with new ways to generate revenue. you one example would be if we want to have a clear uh framework for crypto i think two things would make it very palatable one have an investment test where in order to trade crypto you got to take a basic test if you go in robin hood and you want to trade options which are complicated you have to walk through some tools that explain to you how options work now they're not required to do that they choose to do that because they want to have people have a good experience with their product and not lose their money so we should have accredited an accreditation test then the second piece might be well if you want to trade crypto there needs to be some rails therefore any crypto being sold or bought has 10 basis points five basis points one basis point one one hundredth of a percentage so all these billions of dollars that are going back and forth what if if you traded you know xrp or ethereum or bitcoin that little bit went into our reserve over time you know it might build up as a little mini tax and then that tax would also go to fund the operation of the sec or other folks who do enforcement which if you were in crypto and you were a good actor you would want to fund enforcement against bad actors so that the industry grows and is trusted, which kind of growing, kind of stalled, and it's not trusted.

35:56And so I think that there could be ways to look at generating new revenue here. What if every time somebody wants to IPO or be on the United States market, they have to give 10 basis points of their IPO, whatever they offer, to go into the sovereign wealth fund? So if Alibaba or Uber or pick another country that has a publicly traded company, if Mercedes was going public theoretically, and they want it to be traded on the U.S. stock market, we'd say, yeah, there's a 10-bip, you know, onboarding fee that goes into our sovereign wealth fund to help us grow our economy. But it feels also like then this is going to be highly politicized, which I think you're pointing out.

36:35You know, if MBS wants to build cities or build Neom, a new city, or buy, you know, live golf and do a golf thing, he can do those things because he is the prince. He's the king. I guess he's the prince, right? So in the United States, we don't have princes. We have every four to eight years, it turns over. So now we would get into, okay, Obama did X, Y, and Z. Trump did A, B, and C. Kamala and Biden did X, Y, and Z. And now we're going back and forth. And then the leadership of this has to get ripped out, plugged back in maybe. And then whose priority is it and why? It just feels like we want less government.

37:17Let's go with less government. Well, you could have, you know, five or 10 year terms or lifetime terms and you can have it be set out. But I think we've seen recently that not all norms about length of employment in the government persist. So I struggle with that. But I was laughing actually, because one of our live viewers dropped a funny comment. They said, I don't like the sovereign wealth fund, but I'm okay with taking 0.1 % of tech shares at IPO. To what end in that case, just stealing them? Taxes are good if they can pay down the debt and make the U.S. solvent. And we have a solvency issue.

37:50So I think being creative with taxes is a good idea. Yeah. And I would put anything on the table in that regard if it is earmarked to pay down the debt, like immediately. Like, do not pass go. Do not put it in a slush fund. Just pay down debt. Pay down debt. Balance the budget. That's all that matters right now. We're on the brink of insolvency. Looking through the list of sovereign wealth funds, because I was just going through the you know, the top 10 prepping for the show today, it's basically all oil money. And so I wonder if there is a way we could create something involving if you're leasing public lands, if you're using public resources, take a slightly larger cut, put that money into us.

38:26I can make it work, but I do agree fundamentally that it's a bit of a boondoggle to use your term until we've made actual progress on reducing not only our aggregate debt, but our yearly deficits. The deficit has to get, yeah, first thing is to stop the bleeding. So getting the deficit under control is a good idea, right? If your revenue exceeds your spend, you know, or you're at break even, you've accomplished something. Here's another idea. Immigration hot button issue. Hey, if you're an immigrant here and you want a 10-year golden visa, you have to pay a million dollars in taxes over the next 10 years.

39:00Or whenever you hit a million dollars in taxes, that's when you get your citizenship. Boom. Like we can come up with creative things. Now that wouldn't be the only type of immigration we'd have, obviously. But that could be the golden visa, which other countries have. You make an investment, it goes into the sovereign wealth fund, and then you get a visa. And if you're a good citizen for some period of time, you can get to become an actual citizen of the country. So there are all kinds of ways. If our biggest resource is people want to be here, well, why wouldn't we try to monetize that to pay down our debt?

39:32Anything to pay down the debt and balance the budget is my best opinion. Would you be in favor, just about bawling, of adding a couple hundred basis points to the corporate tax rate to help that issue i think everything should be on the table in terms of taxes and i would always start with the most affluent so you don't want to mute economic activity but you do want to pay down this debt so if corporations had to pay you know increasingly high minimums on their cash hoards uh you know if they had to pay based a minimum tax on certain amounts of revenue, if individuals who had, you know, I'm not in favor of wealth taxes because people can leave.

40:16So you have to be judicious in this. But if people have over some very large number of equities, maybe they get charged a very small amount. Again, when I say like 10 basis points, if you tell me I had to pay 10 basis points every year on my, you know, economic holdings over X millions of dollars, I'd be like, don't like it, but not going to kill me. And if it balances the budget short, as long as the waste fraud abuse is also getting taken care of at the same time, no rich person, no affluent person, no affluent company is going to feel bad about paying a little more in taxes if they know it's not being wasted.

40:54And they know that it actually goes towards balancing the budget, which, you know, if you're running a startup, you know, this like you, cause you run out of money. We have this magical gift that could only exist for a short period of time where we get to print imaginary money and people still want to buy it. And that may not last forever. So, well, not unless stable coins become the next big thing and they put all their money into T-bills. I mean, that helps a little bit, but it's around the edges. I'm curious to see when we get to defense spending and, uh, and waste, fraud, and abuse there, because the Pentagon, as people famously point out, hasn't passed an audit in some time.

41:30And I'm curious what, okay, here's a fun game, Jason, what fraction of DOD spending do you think is wasted? I'm going to go with - Double digits. 25 % probably? Sure. I mean, that's - I mean, if you don't have to pass an audit, if you don't have to be efficient, and everybody just says, hey, it's defense, it's defense, we can't touch it, then you're never going to have efficiency or competition. And so the competition's here, venture capitalists are investing in um military technology now and cost plus is going away so we have to attack everything and so that's um i think one of the things we're seeing now with doge and usaid and all these controversial things that are occurring and causing a bit of chaos and making people wring their hands my best advice is give it a hundred days better it's happening even if you don't like it better it's getting under control and give it a hundred days and then see what happens that's my best advice we're five days into it maybe 10 give it a hundred days yeah people don't people forget but two weeks ago i had hair i had a full head of hair and now it's all falling no that's not true all right so a couple weeks ago we had the guy behind deep research from google on the show great interview great time you were a big fan of the product sure i'm a big fan of the product then over the weekend open ai uh everyone's favorite closed ai shop uh dropped their own product and jason did you know they also called it deep research it's fascinating that they uh i'm shocked that uh in any way uh we would have open ai do something like steal somebody else's it's kind of laughable right they just called it the same exact thing okay sure all right sure uh Anyways, I've pulled this segment from the announcement video, and I think it's a pertinent example to something that you really care about.

43:23But I also have a quick demo to show us. So here is what OpenAI announced recently, in case you have been living under the proverbial rock. We are introducing a capability called Deep Research. What is Deep Research? Deep Research is a model that does multi-step research on the internet. And what it does is it discovers content, it synthesizes content and it reasons about this content, adapting its plan as it uncovers more and more information. So this is a finance problem. So I'm an investment analyst in the Silicon Valley VC firm. I want to analyze the market for civilian supersonic air travel and prepare a thorough investment memo and then many other specifications.

44:01And so the model clarifies and we provided some additional requirements for the memo. And then the model kicked off the task. And as you can see, It went and researched for seven minutes, used 12 different sources, and then came back to us with quite a comprehensive report of the field. And you can imagine if you were doing this for your job, this would be quite helpful to bootstrap your research as you're doing your initial investigation. Yeah. How much did they pay the original researchers for the report they built on top of their research? I guess if they're giving citations, they're going to claim it's fair use.

44:31these deep research projects are really impressive because they are as they read the internet and scrape the internet they figure out what questions to ask next so if you were and we did this remember we did it with the model when we were doing our model of what would it take for self-driving cars yes oh you know for all of us rides well when you ask it hey what are it might ask what are us rides and it's like well there's car rides and they'd be like okay are there any other rides and you'd be like, well, there's subway rides and public transportation. Would you like to include those? Yeah, those count as rides.

45:04Oh, okay. Are there other rides? Oh, yeah, there are school buses. Oh, you know, there's carpooling, whatever it is, it might find things that you didn't anticipate asking a basic question. And that reasoning and logic really does take things to the next level, as we just saw at the beginning of the program with lovable. So when you start using lovable.dev, I wonder if it was, when it did mine, it said, I'm looking, I'm using zero fasting as inspiration. And I was like, oh, okay, well, that's interesting. It basically did a search in its reasoning. Are there other fasting apps out there? What can we learn from them?

45:45What are their features? And then it probably did a scrape of somebody at ZDNet or CNET doing a review of zero fasting and what features they highlighted there. and then said, oh, well, let's create those features here. So it's using some journalist or maybe reviews from the app store to then go figure out what other questions to ask and then build software. So this kind of reasoning is taking it from being not just, let's say, a business process outsourcing worker in Manila, in India, that's like, okay, let's fill in these variables into the database. Let's do this type of OCR, character recognition, whatever.

46:23and then say oh what would a college person do oh what would a phd person do what would a management consultant do and i think they're kind of like already as good as management consultants oh i absolutely think so so uh two things one jason i i do have a demo to show you i did a deep research example but i also while we were talking did ask deep research from open ai the robo taxi question so it's currently working on that for us so we'll take a look but just to show what i came up with for folks out there on the video, I'll try to do a bit of playcasting here. But I asked deep research from OpenAI to do some work for me on the economics of being a small video game publisher, one of my pet industries, took seven minutes, 30 sources, and came up with and I'm not going to read this clearly, because it's 1000s of words, a pretty interesting rundown of funding sources, and then economic viability between major releases, essentially, how do you handle episodic revenue, Jason, and I was very familiar with this question already.

47:21And so I asked, because I wanted to just know how good of a job could it do and could it teach me something new and the answer to the second part of that was in this case no but I thought it was incredibly comprehensive if you didn't know anything and so I think that these are more like if you don't have the information or knowledge they'll get you up to a solid b plus but they're not going to take you from a b plus to an a plus if you were already there and that is almost slightly disappointing to me but also based on what you said this is taking stuff that already exists if you've already you read the source materials, what more can it add?

47:55There is a limited corpus of information in the world. So if you were like, hey, how do I raise a venture capital firm today? How do I raise my first venture capital firm today? It can go and tell you the entire history of how venture capital firms were made and micro funds and all this stuff and give you the architecture. But that doesn't give you the wisdom of asking somebody who just did it in the past two or three years or somebody who's an LP who said no to the last 10 that have come into their firm and say, you know, strategically, here's what I think is going to happen in the marketplace.

48:31In other words, predicting the future. So perhaps deep research is where we're at now. And then future predictions is where we will get to or current strategy or how to apply this knowledge. So if it was, you know, the history was index the world's information, find the world's information and then ai guessing the next word or answering your simple question then evolving onto research and being able to organize you know the entire corpus of information well the next piece is then either an agent executing on it or an agent or an llm giving you advice and predictions of the future so there's not much left here all that's left for the ai to do is to build the venture fund and go raise the money or advise you on how to do it right and in your case it build the game studio or build the game sure and so feels like we're on the cusp of the end game it does feel like we're on the cusp of the end game i'm increasingly impressed and i'm starting to think without forcing myself to oh i should use this more often this will actually help me as opposed to this is a toy i'm experimenting with much more that i should build this into my day-to-day workflow.

49:46And I've been doing the same thing for a long time, a lot of thinking, a lot of reading, a lot of typing stuff down. And so I'm probably overly set in my pattern. So if it's good enough now to actually jostle me from those ruts, that says something to me that's pretty material. I think this is better than what I've seen from Google thus far, but I bet you that Google has something that's baking and in two months it'll be out and then open the eye will come back. The pace here, Jason, remains very quick. And I think we're going to see the stuff get out pretty broadly. Currently, you have to pay the$200 a month open AI subscription, but they are going to bring it down to the lower price tiers quickly.

50:22And we've talked about AI scaling laws and costs thereof. So I presume in 12 months, this will be done in one ton of the time for one-twenty of cost. I think the reason they're limiting it to the$200 one isn't just to make money. I think it's because when you fire these things off, I think it's firing off concurrently many queries. And I think that their servers would shut down because people, ah, if every query was deep research, you know, oh, analyze the Luca trade, analyze all the trades in history. Like it could be launching 10, 20, 50, 500. I mean, the AI would go crazy. So there must be some cap.

51:00And I would love to hear from somebody, what are the caps on these? Like, does it fire off the first 50 and then stop and then require you to then say, hey, give me some more knowledge here and ask follow up questions? Because these things could run indefinitely. You could tell the AI, just give me scenarios of trades and analyze trades, potential trades, future trades, and make an agent that does this. And it would just burn through cycles and compute. So I think that's where we're at right now is people are maybe concerned, rightfully, of how much compute is available, inference is available to do all this.

51:33and put it all together. Then there's storage and electricity. I mean, this could get very, very, very expensive over time. But that's awesome because if it's expensive, it's going to get people to work on making it cheaper. And that's going to be awesome. That's more capacity, more bandwidth, more storage, more compute, etc. That's actually awesome. I had a very different take on the potential risks here or issues. I was thinking about the poor internet out there. If you're Bob and you have Bob's website, and OpenAI comes to your website and just pounds it all the time with deep research queries, couldn't this actually increase the total overall stress load on the internet let alone and you make no money from it um the truth is they've probably uh ingested and are lying and have it in their index they probably scraped all this data and they're keeping it on their own hard drives over time or the most common stuff in cash which you know they could claim it's in a cache and they don't know what's in the cache but what if the cache becomes like the size of the english-speaking internet which if you were to look at google cache almost every web page when you click google cache come used to come up i don't know today what the status of that product is but it used to be every single engadget page was cached every single tech crunch page was cache so they could claim it's in a cache but it's really for all intents and purposes ingested and they don't need to go read your webpage so this does actually uh put us back to the point of are you licensing this data do you have permission to do this should you need permission to do this should you be paying for it and then if somebody does pay for it i think that would be the power move whichever one of these companies is getting towards hundreds of billions of dollars in value why not just start buying content sites yeah how much is cnet worth now how much is tech crunch worth to yahoo how How much is Engadget worth?

53:2330, 20. Yeah, so just why not just buy them and why not subsidize them and pay the journalists to keep producing content and then have it as exclusive to your platform? So that's brilliant. And I love that idea. But also I was thinking, you know, you were talking earlier about how, you know, the LLM is never going to have the wisdom of the person who did the thing most recently. I wonder if in the end, we're going to have a lot of AI model companies literally buying people's time and sitting down and asking them questions and just feeding that directly in. Yeah, that exists as a concept. There are third-party startups that will have developers, accountants, lawyers answer questions or look at questions being asked and verify them.

54:06Think about Mechanical Turk from Amazon, but for white-collar folks. So if you said to the AI, make me a logo in an Art Deco design and it got it wrong, there are some designers somewhere who are answering questions on behalf of language models and these ai companies to refine it just like in the early days uh google and amazon had people saying describe this image oh that's two women baking a cake and you know they're in a country kitchen boom uh so yeah that's actually happening and that could be a job in the future which would be a human in the loop working for an AI company. Yeah, that could be the future of this.

54:50Of course, you can create all the tools in the world, but if people don't have the motivation to use them and create something of value for their fellow humans, it's for moot. So we saw this with the introduction of the VHS and the digital camcorder. Everybody said, wow, there's going to be like so many more movies and documentaries. And you know, it did get cheaper to make them. And yes, there is more content because it is cheaper to make yeah but it wasn't uh i guess what they would call a cambrian explosion you know that everybody made a documentary film or that there were a thousand times as many documentary films unless you count like maybe youtube existing as a concept so i do wonder like if people are actually going to use this to be productive i think they will because they're because they're they're voting with their wallet so the information had some reporting out in the last couple of days the information rights that paid subscribers to chat gpt nearly tripled to 15.5 million last year from 5.8 and that would put it on by their estimate about a four billion dollar run rate and then their api business they write um grew to what they think is about a 3.2 billion dollar run rate so if that is correct and we're working with estimates and third-party data and doing our best but that would put open ai on a seven billion dollar run rate just from those two products so i think people are voting with their dollars i mean i had to upgrade my open ai account to the expensive one to get this today to play with it for the show because i didn't want to talk about without having used it and i bet you i'm not alone man uh there's going to be a lot of sampling of these tools as you pointed out with lovable um you know people will sample them they'll try them uh they might try five of them at once forget to cancel two cancel three then eventually cancel of the other two so that that's happened before it happened in the app economy and then after people go crazy sampling they actually know what they need things are free the winners become apparent and yeah chat gpt is going to have a hundred million people paying for chat gpt at 20 bucks a month no doubt in my mind that would be 14 billion a year or something like that yeah 20 24 24 billion a year sorry yeah so if they had a yeah because it's 20 bucks a month but eventually i think that price comes down to ten dollars okay a hundred dollars a year for your llm a hundred dollars a year i mean you it's conceivable you could have 250 million people paying for a product or service like that in the western world which would be 2.5 billion a month which would be 30 billion a year so there's a 30 billion dollar tam just like netflix is on average probably 10 bucks for 250 million people actually similar netflix has gotten surprisingly expensive i know you and i don't track every dollar that changes in our monthly expenses but like it's like 20 bucks a month now i think it's like doubled since yeah but then you also have places like india china other places that are two dollars a month three dollars average oh okay yeah totally anytime you do yeah these averages you got to take into account what people in india and china and other developing countries or you know places that don't have a strong of a dollar but it's uh super impressive and i think the building of verticalized app and starting companies is going to be changed forever.

58:03Two people are going to be able to create products and services that make$10 million a year. That is going to change venture capital and the economy forever. So the question there that I have, Jason, is, is it going to be, let's imagine there's $100 million in revenue for an idea or a project or a company. And let's say in today's world, one startup will go out there, dominate the market, and get all$100 million in revenue. Do you foresee in the future five or 10 two-person teams doing 10 million revenue apiece and they're all kind of existing at the same time? Or do we still see kind of a consolidation effect that we traditionally see in software and technology companies rolling those up?

58:39There will be certainly roll-ups in M &A that occur. It also requires that somebody want to go pursue that opportunity. So many times you'll see somebody who has a really interesting medium-sized business. They're like running a store in a local community or they have six of these stores in a local community and it's making$50 million a year. And it's like they dominate the Northeast for tires, but nobody else wants to go build that company that does flat tires because it's arduous and painful. so you also need to have somebody want to go and make a better version of i'll keep bringing up the skiing app i use slopes sure does somebody have the motivation to take if that person's making 10 million a year does somebody want to go take the time to charge half as much and steal the customer base and make a million or steal a portion of the customer base who's price sensitive so you know that that's the reality of businesses somebody has to want to go displace a company that requires motivation.

59:44One of the things that might happen is in society, you'll have so much abundance that you won't be motivated or more people will be motivated to stay home and consume than create. And that's kind of where we are now. I'm trying to figure out that'd be net bullish or net bearish for venture capital because consumption on one hand drives GDP, especially here in the US. So that's good. But on the other hand, I think people still talk about venture capital being essentially founder constraint versus market constraint. Like there's not enough people who can break through walls and chew glass and so forth to actually found more generational companies yeah so i i hope motivation yeah yeah but i mean here's my thought about the 10 million dollar point in slopes 10 million dollars is 10 million dollars worth of motivation by definition that's a lot i don't know man would you like to have another 10 million sure sure i mean if you want to go pursue it and then it's a competition so even though we could both create slopes today and make that competitive product well if that person is on the edge keep coming up with new features keep looking at the latest apis and they just iterate and they keep the product getting better and better than people if the amount they're charging is less than the value people are getting what's the reason to leave and that's what happened with netflix netflix has actually pricing power that or disney plus like am i quitting disney plus with three daughters no just keep putting the marvel and disney and star wars stuff in there and i'm good i'll be subscribed and till i die the end right yeah they have it folks elsewhere in the world uh just really briefly before we jump deep seek is catching a lot of bands and jason i wasn't going to bring this up on the show but do you know deep seek is still the number one like ranked app in many national ios app stores today like i didn't think it was going to have that kind of staying power but something to keep an eye on i'm i'm shocked by consumer demand and just so people also know the ranking in ios is determined also by recency of a new app so it's not just how many raw downloads it has to do with how many new people are putting it on their phone for the first time so you can look up the um the app store algorithms they will give you know if a million people downloaded spotify today but a hundred thousand downloaded some new music app that competes with that that new music app might actually out rank spotify because it's a hundred thousand new new downloads as opposed to upgrades caveats caveats i mean so here's the u.s app store rankings deep seek you go to the united kingdom deep seek you go to canada deep seeks number one like that's check back in three months six months yeah i mean it's and it also can be gamed so i wouldn't put above the chinese for gaming it like why is it going to number one i wonder like is it because it's free i think it's because it's free and open ai like we just discussed wants you to pay for things but in texas the governor has banned deep seek and red note on government devices in taiwan it's banned on government devices uh the navy and nasa are limiting usage congress wants to ban staff from using it so there is a slow rolling institutional response version yes yes because the hosted version would then send everything directly to the ccp yeah of course you want to do that and then the non-hosted version if you put it on your laptop or you were to run your own instance on your favorite cloud provider would be fine i guess uh i think that's i don't see a security issue there but i'm not a cyber security guy so you know it's open source so you'd have to find some backdoor it'll be sending the data back to the mothership somehow but the hosted version And certainly I would never allow on any government property.

1:03:26No way. No, huge loophole. All right. Um, Jason, just before we go, do you want to talk about tariffs at all? I mean, give everybody the overview. It seems to me like these are, you know, based on what I'm seeing, they're a negotiating tactic that Trump loves to use because it makes world leaders call him and bend the knee. Okay, great. I guess that works. And then the other piece I've seen is there's a couple of people on the fringe in the, let's say, economic fringe who believe there is a way for a desirable market like ours to enact tariffs and get rid of income tax. And that is some crazy, obscure thought of how the U.S.

1:04:14could change over time. Where do you want to go with it? Well, I was just surprised to watch how fast people's perspectives have changed inside of technology. We had Anthony Pompliano on the show a couple months back. What I like about Pomp is that whatever he does, it's 110%. And so when Trump announced that there was going to be 25 % tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10 % more on China, Pomp wrote a letter explaining why tariffs are good, why they're not going to cause inflation. And then Trump got on the call with the Mexican president for like 20 minutes and they sorted out something and then that was taken down but can you imagine how tough it must be to like go forth and defend tariff policy only to have it be taken apart at the last minute like it's been it's been kinetic it's been very very busy over the last 48 hours and i i i was raised in the chicago school of economics if you will and so i'm not a tariff guy i'm a free trade guy i don't like them as i especially don't like tariffing our allies for no reason like i mean canada is a perfectly a fine hat for the nation respect for our canadian friends they're mad like we've actually managed to really anger an ally that we tend to not even think about and i think that's just a mistake and it's not good economics i mean if we charge them an extra amount to get their attention to close the border and then we relent i think that's probably what's happening here because i don't think we don't want to be able to send our stuff to canada and then it just where does it end like you charge 25 they charge 30 you go 35 like it just kind of eventually unravels and it's better for the world if the labor to build products and services goes to the cheapest place possible so more people have access to that product or service with the obvious caveat of you don't want to have an interdependency right you don't want to have the not be able to get drugs to your country or i don't know surgical equipment whatever it is uh gasoline you do need to have some redundancy in the supply chain.

1:06:17So things being made all in one place is dangerous, but I think this is all posturing and it's just noise. And again, focus on your startup. Read the news once a day. Read the news. No, don't read the news once a day. Just tune in to Twist three times a week. We do this Monday, Wednesdays, Fridays. You can get all the news you need in 60 to 90 minutes. Jason and I will be here taking you through all of it. We have an awesome founder interview coming on Friday with another space company, Jason, that I'm so excited about. And things are cooking along. So we'll see everyone back here on Wednesday.

1:06:48All right. Cheers, everybody.

From the publisher

OpenAI dropped Deep Research—hilariously, the exact same name as Google’s existing tool. Jason and Alex dive into the AI arms race, break down Lovable.dev’s insane growth to $10M ARR in weeks, and test whether AI can really replace software engineers. Plus, they analyze Trump’s latest tariff chaos and what it means for startups, global trade, and the economy.

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Timestamps:

(0:00) Jason and Alex kick off the show.

(1:09) Jason’s talk and case study at Stanford (2:38) Managing the chaotic news cycle (5:22) NBA trade insights: Luka Doncic and Anthony Davis (7:15) Lovable startup's rapid growth (9:44) Lemon.io. Get 15% off your first 4 weeks of developer time at https://Lemon.io/twist (11:02) Lovable's AI demo and European startup landscape (15:20) Lovable's target market and pricing strategy (19:48) PrizePicks. Run your game. Download the app today and use code TWIST to get $50 instantly after you play your first $5 lineup! Go to: https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/TWIST

(21:39) Custom software development's future with AI (23:17) Launching and designing AI-powered apps (27:07) US sovereign wealth funds and crypto regulation (28:56) LinkedIn Ads. Get a $100 LinkedIn ad credit at http://www.linkedin.com/thisweekinstartups (33:42) Creative tax and debt reduction strategies (41:34) Defense spending and OpenAI's new product (46:51) OpenAI's market impact and ethical considerations (53:02) AI's role in content creation and job market (58:13) Venture capital trends and startup ecosystem (1:01:19) DeepSeek's popularity and security concerns (1:03:28) Tariffs, economic impact, and supply chain importance *

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Check out:

Standford Case Study on Jason: https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/case-studies/jason-calacanis-case-study-creating-resources

OpenAI’s Deep Research: https://openai.com/index/introducing-deep-research/

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Follow Anton

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/antonosika/

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X: https://x.com/lovable_dev

Website: www.lovable.dev

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LinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexwilhelm

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Follow Jason:

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis

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Thank you to our partners:

(0:00) Lemon.io. Get 15% off your first 4 weeks of developer time at https://Lemon.io/twist (0:00) PrizePicks. Run your game. Download the app today and use code TWIST to get $50 instantly after you play your first $5 lineup! Go to: https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/TWIST (0:00) LinkedIn Ads. Get a $100 LinkedIn ad credit at http://www.linkedin.com/thisweekinstartups *

Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland

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