TWiST News: Bitcoin’s Future, Reddit Answers, SEC Shifts, and more! | E2057

25:27There's the, you know, maybe you've got the guys who did the housing short and they made, you know, I think John Paulson made like$10 billion or something for his investors. Got Michael Burry. Like there's maybe we can come up with like 15 or 20 great trades. Sure. 10 billion is like probably the biggest number I've heard someone made on one of these big trades. Yeah. If Saylor is right, he's going to make hundreds of billions, which would make this the single greatest trade in corporate history now again caveat or assumption of like he's got to be right so far he is but i think that that is the part to me that everyone wants to focus on like the activity but it is the like i'm not going to take my foot off the gas and i'm fully convicted i'm going like all in that is really i mean we're all investors like it's very very hard to say i have an idea and i'm gonna go big the criticism is he's using other people's money to do this he's raising you know three four billion dollars and if he if he loses he wins and if he wins he wins you know it's kind of like kind of because i think he's the largest shareholder of micro individual shareholder of micro strategy so like again you know it's his company he's got control.

26:41He's got a big percentage. Now, he did also publicly come out when he bought Bitcoin with the company and say he personally bought$250 million at the time of Bitcoin. So again, that doesn't mean he's running like a leverage strategy personally, but he at least put his own cash into the same asset that the company did, you know, whatever. So could blow up here, I guess, is what everybody wants to know, because when I hear everybody say this is like, I figured out the money machine. I unlocked the safest bet. It can only go up. There's no losing here. And he's kind of tipping into that level of there's no downside here.

27:17I completely disagree with the whole, like, there's no risk. And I've publicly said, you know, in different conversations, when I hear people saying there's no risk, which I don't think he said, I think there's a lot of people who hold microstrategy stock that are saying it. Yes. We've seen them on all of our x in every single video we've done yes when i hear that i immediately say to myself red flag like like you know you don't got to be around that long to know when somebody says there's zero risk that yes all that now let me walk through maybe to kind of use an extreme to prove the point to start if bitcoin gets hacked and becomes worthless is there a risk to micro shred obviously.

27:58So I use an extreme, very low probability thing to just show that you can't say there's zero risk because I just gave you a scenario where we all agree there's some risk. Again, it might be 0.001%, but there's some risk. Now let's go back to something that maybe is more realistic. There's key man risk. If Michael Saylor, something happens to him, if he says, hey, I'm done, I want to retire or whatever, that introduces risk. It's no different than name a company that had a really well-known founder. Steve Jobs. I mean, we just go through the list, right? And so it's like, okay, that becomes a risk.

28:31The second thing is there's two ways to look at the quote-unquote premium. One is that the Bitcoin is trading, or I'm sorry, the market cap is trading at a premium to the Bitcoin, which is some of the premium. But I also think what people are doing is they're looking at it and they're saying, hey, if he keeps getting convertible debt that converts at a 50 % plus premium and he's able to buy Bitcoin, he's essentially creating like a creative value to the balance sheet, which would look very similar to quote unquote revenue. But because of gap accounting, we can't call it revenue. It doesn't count as revenue.

29:05But in that, we are going to give him a multiple so that if he continues to do this, he'll like grow into the valuation. So there's two things that are leading to that, you know, kind of market cap above the NAB. One is a premium of NAB. and then there's like a, I don't know, like new revenue, multiple, whatever. So immediately what's the risk? Well, like the premium to NAV closes and maybe that's only like a 1X, even though it's trading at like three or 4X, you know, multiple. And then something happens in the market where he can't go buy more Bitcoin. People won't lend them money or the stock price crashes or, you know, like there's all these different scenarios.

29:42And so now all of a sudden that multiple collapses. And so I just think that, you know, there's a lot of good, But to your point, if I hear no risk, I'm like, there's risk. Wait a second. You didn't go over the most important risk, though, which is that the price of Bitcoin declines sharply. All the convertible notes have the option for the lenders to request their money paid back a year before they mature in cash. So, I mean, he could end up short on money and have to sell lots of Bitcoin if the price declines. all right founders if you're running an ai startup you already know it's all about compute power ai models need data they need training and gpus lots and lots of gpus but here's the thing all these traditional cloud platforms can be a nightmare to manage and to scale and that's where digital ocean comes in digital ocean is the cloud platform that helps you scale faster without headaches and with DigitalOcean, you can quickly spin up GPU powered virtual machines and start training models, even building AI agents, and obviously crunching all these massive data sets in just seconds.

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31:33That's a 20 % discount in addition to the free credits. Visit do.co slash twist to get started and view terms and conditions. That's do.co slash twist. So I don't think that that's a risk yet. It could become a risk to the scenario you proved. But if I understand correctly, and I don't spend a ton of time looking at the up-to-date numbers because I know they just bought another like$2 billion of Bitcoin. But I believe that Bitcoin would have to crash like more than 80 % to be at a level that is equivalent to the debt they'd have to pay back. So Bitcoin has done that before. Close, yeah. It's done it four times, yeah.

32:13Right? So maybe it's 75%. Yeah, four major drawdowns. He's got 400 ,000 Bitcoin, 402 ,000, last number I have, at 100 ,000 of Bitcoin, that's$40 billion. Companies worth 80, 90 billion. I think it's about$90 billion right now. And then the debt load right now is$7 billion, I think, is the last number they keep adding. So just use$40 and$7. Right? Basically, he'd have to go through a 75-plus percent drawdown for the Bitcoin to be worth the debt. And he'd have to liquidate it all to pay back the debt. But even if Bitcoin drew down 75%, he still would have the cash to pay back the debt. Now, he would have no other assets.

32:51Right? I think to your point, Alex. But there's enough of a gap between the money owed and what the Bitcoin is worth today, where he could weather a 50 % drawdown and still be - Yeah, 50 % drawdown from - Yeah. So if the asset, the company, if you take the debt out of the 90 billion, let's say it's worth 87 billion right now, he's got an$80 billion company,$40 billion in Bitcoin. Yeah. If it goes down 50%, so if Bitcoin's trading at$45 ,000,$50 ,000, I think that's probable. I don't know if it's the majority case, but it's a probable case. Then he would have his stock price would decline to probably$20 billion because he's getting two for one right now, double the NAV.

33:32He would have to start selling some Bitcoin, I think, to pay off that$7 billion. Then the amount he would have to sell, if he had$20 billion in Bitcoin, would be 35 % of his Bitcoin to pay them back. So he'd still own two out of three Bitcoins, but he'd have to sell$1 ,000 in that scenario. If it went down to$25 billion, he'd have to sell even more. He'd have to sell maybe two-thirds of is Bitcoin. And then you really start to get what I think would be a spiraling confidence. Now, uneducated people are saying on Reddit and social, well, just raise more money. And I'm like, do you not know how debt works?

34:00People will give you money if it's going up, but if it's going down, they're not going to want that debt. You can't just refinance. That's like refinancing a home that you overpaid for and the market crashed 30 % for homes. And you go to a lender and you're like, can I get a loan at that price? And it's like, yeah, no, no, you You can get it at this price if you pay down that debt. There is a risk of ruin here. I don't know if it's 10 or 20%. It's not zero. I think my point is that we would have to see a crash in Bitcoin's price that we have not seen in 10 plus years for the current. Yeah. Because here's the thing.

34:35It would have to be 50%, right? No, no, no, no, no, no. Because forget the market cap of the company because that's basically just a made up number, right? Just take, he's got 40 to$45 billion of Bitcoin, whatever that number is. Let's say 40. He's got$7 billion of debt. So right now, if he just said, hey, I'm going to pay off the debt, he'd end up with$33 billion of Bitcoin. Right. But if Bitcoin's price draws down 75%, so he's got$10 billion of Bitcoin and he's got$7 billion of debt, he could still pay it off and end up with$3 billion of Bitcoin. So what I'm saying is like the price of Bitcoin has to draw down so significantly.

35:08Could it happen 100 %? we saw Bitcoin drop from 69 ,000 to 16, right? So like these drawdowns happen, but I think that the bigger risk is not that as much as it is, because even in that scenario, like he just pays back the debt, he ends up with no Bitcoin, but like he's no kind of no worse off than he was before. Well, that was my point of like, if we win, I win. And if we lose, I'm winning anyway, because I own my own personal Bitcoin and I'm getting paid every year to do this. I do think the thing that gets left out of this is - That's like most public companies though, right? Well, to a certain extent, yeah.

35:40You just gave up your time as a human being on planet Earth when you could have been doing something else. But here's the thing. He's asking people to buy his stock. And the people buying his stock, the public, you and I are looking at it from the Michael Saylor perspective, which I think is great that you're pointing that out. How does he lose? But how does the stock, how does the shareholder in MicroStrategies lose? I think that they're on a path to lose in the midterm, short to midterm, because people are starting to realize i could buy two bitcoin two and a half bitcoin three bitcoin depending on the moment in time for every share of micro strategies i buy with no risk yes true uh and i think that most people should just go buy bitcoin uh and not worry about kind of all the high finance and multiples and all that kind of stuff it's like just forget it whatever yeah now with that said this idea of like bitcoin yield the ability to generate more bitcoin per share again this is new if it ends up being what they're saying i think there's a lot of people who will start to say like oh wow we should figure out how to also tap into this um the question though is that's all predicated on the ability to raise more capital in the future to buy bitcoin right do that whole game that is alex see this is the problem alex i think is i believe what sailor is doing with this bitcoin he owns the bitcoin yield yeah i believe that this is a metric whenever i see new metrics adjusted EBITDA, community-based EBITDA from WeWork, that has been indicative of fraud or Ponzi schemes in the past.

37:07When I see a new metric come, that is like 10 red flags for me, because why do you need a new metric to understand what the value of a company is? And I feel like that's the one that he's using to manipulate people. And I don't know if he's doing it intentionally or whatever, but trying to get people to think about how many shares you own of micro strategies, and that's better than owning your own Bitcoin. If you had a million dollars right now, and I said, Pomp, you have to buy Bitcoin or micro strategies, what would you do with the million dollars? If you, on a dollar basis, how much would you buy directly own your keys?

37:43How much would you buy in micro strategies? And if a friend of yours, a family member said the same thing, I got a million dollars, it represents whatever 5 % of my net worth, you know, and I just want to put, it's worth 10, it's 10 % of my net worth. I'm worth 10 million. I believe in Bitcoin. I want a million dollars worth. I'll dollar-cross average it. How would you tell your brother, sister, cousin to allocate it to micro strategies or buying Bitcoin directly? Bitcoin in particular is fascinating to me because if I go talk to people on Wall Street, they will say it's the riskiest asset they own.

38:13If I go talk to people in the crypto world, they'll tell me that it's BoomerCoin and it's the least risky asset that they own. BoomerCoin. Yes, it's BoomerCoin for the crypto people, right? Now, here's why that's interesting to me. if you look at what can go up more on a percentage basis, then you're going to end up in meme coin land. These things can go up thousands of percent and it's amazing. But if you look at it as a risk reward, what is the risk I'm taking? What is the confidence level I have that it's going to work? And what is the amount of size that I can put into it? Then Bitcoin is very attractive.

38:43And so what I normally tell people is if you don't own Bitcoin, you should probably, in Satoshi's words, get some in case it catches on. And then from there, if you want to go and say, hey, I'm going take 5 % of my portfolio and go speculate on your favorite stock, micro strategy, meme coins, knock yourself out. Okay. So you would tell a family member 950 into Bitcoin, 50K into micro strategies or Hawk Tool coin or whatever else you want to - Or go play the lottery, go to Los ... Do whatever you want, right? Yeah, exactly. And again, that isn't a knock against a certain stock or a coin or whatever.

39:16It's just like - No, I think it's such an important point though. Every single person I know who has been in the Bitcoin game for any period of time says they would tell their family member, do not buy micro strategies, buy Bitcoin, own it, your keys, your coins, that basic philosophy. I think it's very important for people to know. Anybody who's listening to this, if you own micro strategies two to one for a Bitcoin, sell your micro strategies immediately and buy two Bitcoin. That's my best advice. Jason said that I'm not saying that, but Jason said that. And I think if we're sitting here in five or 10 years, I will say right now, I believe there's an 80, 90 % chance plus that two Bitcoins outperforms the one Bitcoin in micro strategies.

40:00If you put a million dollars into micro strategies right now and a million dollars in Bitcoin, and the NAV is two to one, man, I think it's so obvious right now that this thing is overheated. I think he should get maybe 10%, 5%, 10%, 15 % above the value of the Bitcoin, minus the debt. That, I think, is reasonable. Listen, VCs get paid 20%, Carrie. Or if you're a money manager, you get 1%, which winds up being 20 % of the gain. You get one point of the five. So it's 20%, actually. So it feels like 10%, 20%, 30 % is the amount money managers should get on a device, or a capital allocator should get on a device, not 2X.

40:43It's a bit crazy. Anyway, Pomp, you're awesome. Everybody go into your podcast player since you're there right now and subscribe to Pomp's podcast. It's amazing. He's honest. He's always been candid. He's always kept it a buck. He keeps it a hundred and just a great follow on Twitter. Your Twitter handle is again? A.Pompliano. There it is. Pomp. Thank you guys. Thank you so much for coming on. Appreciate you. And we'll continue the discussion. All right, bye. I want to make a point about Bitcoin yield because you said it's been very interesting there, Jason. You said that when people invent a metric, it's a red flag.

41:12Hard to agree. So I want to put a hypothetical to you because I think this would solve the problem for me. So instead of calling it Bitcoin yield, if Saylor had said, hey, we're going to start tracking the Bitcoin to float ratio to see how good of a job we're doing to make your shares worth more Bitcoin, would that bother you? I mean, it would be like a price to earnings ratio or a price to sales ratio. Sure, that would totally be intellectually honest. I believe that Saylor is not being intellectually honest. And when you combine that with his relentless promotion, I believe that's the recipe for disaster here.

41:52Now, that doesn't mean disaster is going to come. That doesn't mean I think he's running a Ponzi. It doesn't mean I think he's a fraud. None of that. I believe he's such a believer in this that he, and he has like a mania about him, right? So people who are manic like that, sometimes they change the world. Sometimes they're Elizabeth Holmes, right? Sometimes they're FTX. Sometimes they're Steve Jobs. Yes. And so what you have to do when you look at a situation like this, when somebody is that manic, when they're that enthusiastic, when they start making up their own metrics and they're living in their own world, which I believe Michael Saylor is living, you can kind of see it in how he speaks.

42:35He is like living in an alternate timeline where he has seen the future. He's like a guy who's come back from the future. And you know what? He's been in the business for a long time. I understand that. Sometimes when you've been in the business a long time, you think you can see clearly like, yep, this is a straight shot. He believes it's a straight shot to 100X from here. therefore if you do believe it's a straight shot to 100x and i sent you back in time and i said bitcoin's gonna trade at 10 million each and it's 100 000 now what would you do i'd sell the house sell the cars sell the boats yeah yeah which he literally said in a video there's a famous viral video where he says and they've clipped it to kind of manipulate it a little bit okay i think in fairness to him that viral video was like if you believe in bitcoin the right thing to do is to mortgage everything sell every asset you have and just put it into bitcoin if you believe in it And he does give that caveat.

43:26But there is a much better path here if you do believe in what he's doing, which I believe is to own the Bitcoin directly. If it was 10 % more or 20 % more, I'd say fine. Put 20%, one in five Bitcoins into Michael Saylor's hands. Maybe he's got some magic leverage machine and he's going to have some tremendous advantage over you just holding it. but at two or three X, I think it would be the height of foolishness to buy a micro strategy share over buying directly. That's what I think. I think he's got so far to go in closing this gap of yield and his leverage. I think he, do you want to be the person closing the gap for him?

44:07Or do you want to be the person who takes advantage of the gap? So if you bought him when the nav was under, you were smart. If you buy it when it's two or three X, I think you're the sucker at the table. At the same time, would I short it? Hell no. No. No, never bet against people being irrational because you'll get your face ripped off and thrown in the dumpster. I'm just going to watch. One last tiny thing on this. By the way, let me just ask you a question. Just check my logic here because people are saying like I'm a hater or whatever. Is there anything I'm saying here that you can find any breaks in my argument or any bias in it?

44:45I mean, listen, I know you work for me, so you're biased, but you are an independent person who could be employed by anybody. You're not going to like just yes me to death here, as we've seen in previous episodes. You've got your own opinions. is there anything in my argument any chink in the armor any achilles heel in what i'm saying please tell me if there is audience and alex and chat room no actually if this was uh you know the alex has opinions our show and you know it was by myself i think i'd be ruder about this right so i think you're probably you know a little bit measured because i think what we want to do is leave space that there's something we're missing now i i don't see what that could be in this particular case but i don't think that i'm omniscient and i don't think that you're omnipotent So I think between the two of us, we're going, hey, why not buy your own Bitcoin?

45:29But maybe leverage machines a great way to make money in the near term. Great chance for us to check the chat room. Anybody in the chat room, if you're on YouTube, if you're on X, if you're on LinkedIn, please go ahead and let's discuss if we got something wrong here. Let's discuss if I got something wrong. Is there something I got wrong here? Please let us know. I'm reading through the chat right now for a phone. We'll take a second here. It's okay. And we are coming to you every Monday. Wednesday, Friday in 2025, 12 p.m. Texas time, 1 p.m. Alex East Coast and 10 a.m. Left Coast, aka the Pacific, here in the United States.

46:06You can find us at TWI Startups on all the major platforms and our YouTube channel. Go subscribe. Hit the bell. If you hit the bell, you get a notification and you become part of the Nody Gang. And if we scroll up, we can read some members of the Nody Gang as well. Who got in here first? I always like to know who got in here first, Alex. and then if they have any great questions yeah well i know i'm just kind of um i'm laughing that people are saying that we've beat this horse to death sailor's a smart guy who granted is definitely taking a big risk but we want good vibes jcal back apparently we're being we're being too much of a pessimistic i don't see anything in here that actually uh underpoints our theory i will say yes if you are a capital pool that does not have access to bitcoin through one of the 8 trillion ways you can now get access to it directly maybe microstrategy does deserve a premium that's why jason says maybe 10 to nav sure um last thing on this jason for me is very simple he said that there's some people in uh crypto who are a little bit annoyed that bitcoin is becoming so institutionalized and brought into wall street and so forth i think that's a really good point i find it very funny that i now buy the future of money the revolution against the system in my fidelity account that just strikes me as ironic like haha wall street one um but we should move on jason and a lot of topics to cover yeah you know one thing i wanted to um yeah one thing i just wanted to bring up um i found this when i was researching paul atkins and we didn't get a chance to talk about this i think but here is um commissioner paul atkins uh from the sec in 20 in april 20th 2007 conference co-sponsored by the american enterprise institute and the brookings institute right these are famous um places that uh you know people go to give talks and you know my pet peeve with the sec is accreditation ah okay so here we go can you see my screen i'm gonna make i can't okay let me see if i can make it one size bigger maybe that's just too big something that's good to read here right i'm at a good size so in this speech he talks about accreditation.

48:13It turns out in 2007, this was a major topic. And he says here, let me highlight it with my mouse, the concepts of economic risk in return also affect a different proposal of the commission relating to private investment funds. Specifically, part of the commission's proposal would add an additional requirement for any natural accredited person to have at least 2.5 million in investments before he or she could invest in a private investment fund like a hedge fund or a private equity fund other than a venture capital fund. So a venture capital fund can be accredited. But here they were saying, hey, getting people into hedge funds and private equity in 2007.

48:49Can you imagine there was such an incredible run-up since then that people could participate in? He says here, the underlying premise for the commission's proposal is that these types of investments are too risky for individuals other than the very rich. And remember,$2.5 million back then would be like saying maybe$5 or$10 million. Now, money's doubled since then at least. Therefore, we have to presume that the non-rich are either unsophisticated or lack access to sophistication. And it is simply not tolerable to have these types of people at risk of losing their money on a hedge fund. Assuming that these premises are true, however, what evidence does the commission have to support the conclusion that private investment funds are the most risky?

49:39right that you would on a logical basis you'd have to say well this is more risky than buying an index fund or a venture fund or gambling in vegas which people were allowed to do yep and how does the risk profile of a pooled investment compare to the risk of investing in securities of a single issuer right and just to be clear this means you can take your money right now with no accreditation and put all of your capital into um jason's fly-by-night quote you can bet on the jets yes i was thinking more like you could buy one single stock you could bet on kellogg's you know you could buy less risky yeah you could you could buy you know a spack that went to zero sure and then i'll just end many public comment letters express get letters back then press indignation at the commission's proposal one commenter wrote stay out of my wallet.

50:32Stop trying to protect me for myself. Stop pursuing to know more than I do about my own life, risk tolerance, and financial sophistication. End quote. The commission's proposal may very well prevent the non-rich from losing their money in private investment funds, but it also certainly will prevent the non-rich from participating in any upside profits and gains of these funds. Does this mean the rich get richer while the non-rich should be content to just hold their place in the economic ladder, this is not a mere rhetorical question because the so-called smart money investors are allocating increasing amounts of their portfolios to private investment funds as alternative investments.

51:13Although this is still a minor part of their allocation, this change in allocation is clearly a market reaction to developments in capital markets. I'll end there. Yes. But it's a long way of saying, this is my guy. Yeah. I'm psyched about this. Gary Gensler out for this guy? They've been slow rolling and dragging the accreditation laws. This person clearly gets it. If you're an American, and he uses the word sophistication, which is what I've been using instead of accreditation, which I like. If there's a path to sophistication, which the SEC has been charged with doing, but they will not do, because I think they're slow rolling it, maybe this guy, maybe my guy, will go, Paul, Maybe Big Pauly will go in there and say, let's make this fair.

52:00I believe that this is the way for people to move from one bracket to another. Why? Why do I believe this? Because I did. My family did. The Calacanis family did. Your family could do this too. I'm not saying bet all your money into it. I mean, if you had$100 ,000 net worth and you told me you wanted to put$5 ,000 in a private equity fund and$5 ,000 in a hedge fund, I'd be like, you know what? Great. you're going to learn something great idea especially compared to what people tend to spend their money on anyways i mean people often think about what are the risks here for someone who might uh you know put their money into the wrong private investment pool or whatever but that person might have put it on to you know fan duel so or hawk do hawk to a coin it's it's dollar sign hawk i believe if you want to look up that blue chip asset and uh put all your money onto it I mean, did she go to jail?

52:49Have these people learned nothing? Did they not see every single celebrity get dinged the last time around? Remember they all got dinged? It was like a parade of everybody who promoted an Ishcoin last time. What else we got on the talking? I'm sorry. I just told that for a Monday. Okay. So you wanted to talk a little bit more about the Brian Thompson murder case. You had a fresh take. I just want to say that there was some breaking news this morning. according to news reports there was a 26 year old picked up at mcdonald's in uh pennsylvania had fake ids including one that the mypd believes was used by the suspect and he had a gun in a similar suspension so i don't want to say that but it certainly looks like they got they got they got 99 they found him where we are um so you know now we will go into the you know the eventual end game here to find out you know if he was hired by a state-sponsored actor or he's deranged or his parent died of cancer because they were denied coverage or anything in between these possibilities everything is possible here you know i was just thinking about how divisive this issue is.

54:02And I said on the All In pod last week, I realized as an individual, as time goes on, you get older, maybe you get a little bit of resources, your perspective is very different. My perspective on healthcare has changed greatly in 20 years. I used to be scared about my healthcare like many Americans are today. Can I cover something? It's like a low underlying anxiety. you know what i'm saying like a a pervasive fear that my god forbid somebody in my family i'm not going to be able to get them chemotherapy whatever it is you know uh some drug they need because they have got some rare disease and so when you become more affluent what happens is your experience with health care becomes a different frustration which is my employees keep complaining about the health care and I'm spending 10 % more a year.

54:56This is infuriating. It's like you have the perspective of the person who's been caught in the middle. That's been my perspective for 20 years, which is cannot believe how much this costs. I can't believe when people on my team tell me what their deductibles are, et cetera. It's nuts. Crazy to be an employer and have to deal with this stuff. You're just flabbergasted, but you can always afford to pick the golden plan, right? Whereas somebody who is coming up, 25-year-old J. Cal, 30 years ago in 1994, I didn't have healthcare for 10 years. Did you put that out there right now? I didn't have healthcare for 10 years.

55:35When I was running my companies as an entrepreneur, I did not have healthcare. Think about how crazy that is. I was flying without a net for a decade maybe, on and off. Sometimes I had it, sometimes I didn't. Eventually, we wound up having it. We had a PEO at Silicon Valley Reporter. but for many years between Sony and that, you know, when I was, you know, entrepreneur and then getting out of it, I had like maybe a year I paid Cobra. If you remember that you would have, you'd have a Cobra payment. I covered myself for a year or two on that. So I, I, I had, I don't say I had memory hold it, but I just forgotten it because you're young.

56:06You don't need healthcare for God for, you know, if you're lucky, knock on wood, you don't need it. So I would be like, this is such a waste of money. I'm healthy. I never go to the doctor. Now I'm older. i got sick parents you know i got sick grandparents aunts and uncles i see it all around me and i really think as i've been saying for many years here the employer being wedged into this is a major part of the problem and consumers not being consumers of this product they have no agency when you have no agency there's a famous line um um which is a man without hope is a man without fear so it's it's a daredevil and so it does it it does not justify anything murderers murder like go to jail forever we get it but i do understand that the reaction from people is dark yes it's disgusting but i understand it comes from somewhere you know grand frustration here and i think this i don't want to say this is like some rallying cry whatever I don't want to inspire people to do this stuff, but do be self-aware, you know, as an individual of privilege where you are in that journey from, you know, having this issue abstracted from you.

57:20Right. Yeah. And I have been super aware of it, but I haven't had to deal with it. Right. Again, these dark memes don't do them, man. This I just find it so disturbing to watch people making light of this person being murdered. Whatever it turns out to be for him being murdered is just really dark. I really don't think people should be joking about it, but it is what it is. Yeah. I have a lot of thoughts about this. I mean, one, right now, I'm much in your position, Jason. I have incredible health coverage. And no matter what happens to me, my family is going to be just fine. Literally anything that comes up, we're good.

57:55And that does remove that layer of stress. And to put it into my personal context, because you did too, I recall growing up, we basically never had uh we never had vision and uh dental insurance because my dad had his own company and so we had basically just high deductible emergency insurance at best and i remember my mom crying in the car after i would get a cavity or something because she didn't have the money to pay for it in fact the first money i made in journalism jason you know what i did i went home and i got my forefront teeth fixed because i never had the ability to have proper dental care that was corrective at that point.

58:32So trust me, I've had the crying parents. I've had the fear. I get it. And I think that this moment, if we can use it at all for good, if there's anything we can get out of this that's positive, it's a recognition amongst the more well-to-do that the people who are less well-to-do are struggling. They're in pain here. And the American healthcare system, while we like to beat our chest and say, we're the best in the world, it's not working for a lot of people not in healthcare we're not i mean we we spend the most get the least i mean i congress is very we're not we're not a frontier market we're not an emerging market but we if you spend the most you should get the most now listen the solutions and the innovations here people come from all around the world so for again once again back to like capitalism capitalism is a rabid competition um and what it has resulted in is we have prenovo and we have these incredible companies and we have cancer blood tests.

59:30We have incredible stuff in this country, but it's capitalism. So you kind of pay to play in a lot of cases. I think what has to happen is it just has to be a floor. And almost all Republicans and Democrats and everybody in between I speak to who are in power and who have affluence all feel the same way. Just build a floor of like a basic amount of healthcare that everybody gets all the time. Cause we kind of have that already with medicaid medicare and emergency rooms emergency rooms yeah it's like there needs to be some really great leadership here and some really great competition and i think maybe the states having something to do with this might also be helpful in creating competition i'm just spitballing here sure but you know we have states in competition with each other to land companies etc yeah maybe we need to have the states have their own versions of universal health care by a state by state instead of having this be a federal mandate and then there could be efficiencies in each local place and they could run tests and see who does it better and if you did it better then you might draw people to your state because they go this place has the best health care i want to move to texas or i want to move to california new york or vermont because they do the best job just like some people might move to a place because you have the best safety or the best education system or the best tax treatment the struggle there that i have is if some states opted out of the strategy that we're describing here, they would have a much lower tax basis.

1:00:56So all the corporations are going to move to Oklahoma, which has no healthcare and all the people want to move to California, which does, and you're going to end up with a pretty uneven market. So that's kind of why I think if we're going to do what you say, I hate to say it, probably a federal solution versus one that's done by the States. Otherwise it's going to be super uneven. But the federal is just so inefficient and doing everything. I just, it's the only thing we have as a nation that allows for like a full collection of action and i think that the the annoyance you just expressed they're super valid but i think it's the cost of being a big nation we could be more efficient if we were just georgia because we'd be much smaller we'd have what about my point about like the competitive nature of states and like they iterate and you get in a little competition if the floor is set by the federal government and each state gets to fulfill it in their own way oh hell yes i love okay great awesome maybe that's the compromise there yeah all right what else we got on the docket let's okay so jason you threw this in and i had seen the headline about reddit answers and i thought to myself i don't care i was so wrong this is like the coolest thing i've ever seen so yeah pull it up show it yeah all right so i'll go ahead and cue it up um this is uh how reddit described its own uh new feature So Reddit, everyone knows, has a deal with Google to essentially allow them to ingest Reddit's materials.

1:02:21Now, what Reddit is doing here, Jason, is putting together a Q &A service that curates summaries of relevant conversations and details across Reddit. Essentially, it'll pull in what Reddit knows about the query you put in. It's a Q &A service. We all know what that means. What's really interesting to me here is that this is not just Reddit building a new feature. This is a Contra Google strategy. Why should Reddit sell off its unique secret sauce to other people for a pittance when it could build its own service that keeps people on platform, properly leverages its own brand, and I think can make tons of money?

1:02:58I can give you the answer. Okay, please. I'll give you the answer. They have to be careful because a large percentage of their traffic comes from Google. if google perceives them as a competitor they'll do what they did to me at mahalo and ehow and other people which is d index us and move us down google has a rule no indexing of other search like indexes okay so if they perceive reddit as a direct competitor then you know they they really put reddit move reddit up in the results and send them a lot of traffic i think they would be downgraded and so that is a challenge that they're going to have i do think reddit would make a kick-ass search engine because a lot of people go to reddit like they go to amazon and do some number of searches there but the majority of people wind up at reddit through google um but reddit has i think reddit and x have the two best data sets in the world for information i cannot find this but i should have pulled it up beforehand but i think that reddit was a top five search query on google in the last couple of years pen reddit they append quora they append amazon they append twitter mostly append reddit and i think i think that shows how this the center of gravity in finding information online has shifted you need reddit's information and google's search box or do you just need a search box on reddit so i agree google could go nuclear and try to downrank Reddit, one, antitrust concerns, but also two, I think that would so dramatically harm Google's search quality that it would be a net positive for Reddit over a four to eight quarter timeframe.

1:04:43I swear to you, Jason, Reddit's too addictive, too popular to be slowed down by Google search alone. And I think this is absolutely brilliant. And I don't think that they could stop them. I just think they could give them a headwind. Market cap for Reddit now, 29 billion. I'm an idiot because I kept talking about how much I loved red and how undervalued I think it is when it was like a third of that price. So once again, I'm a dum-dum because I didn't make the trade. I got to just start making trades. Whenever I'm passionate about something, just tell me, did you make a trade? Hey, Jay Gow. So I can start.

1:05:16Keep making trades when you hear me. Don't forget, after the show today, don't forget to go buy about 10 million worth of micro strategy. No, that's the opposite. That's the opposite. Oh, I'm sorry. i mean no yeah please no okay so on the subject of being a dumb dumb when i saw this news dug into it my alarm bells went off in my head because i recalled reading through reddit's q3 earnings call previously to learn more about its data licensing business because i was thinking here's an enormous revenue stream for reddit it's going to be amazing and you know what on the earnings call, the CFO, Jennifer Wong, and the CEO, Steve Huffman, were incredibly relaxed about data deals.

1:05:58Jen Wong said, we have limited visibility into the timing of additional partnerships. Steve said, I'd say for us, it's a nice to have business. And then he said this, but if we're thinking about the future of Reddit, it's really our ads business. It's search. It's more of our kind of on platform initiatives. So I really think that during this earnings call, They were trying to be like, just wait like two months for us to drop this new thing. But this explains to me why they haven't landed another seven deals for 60 or a hundred million apiece. Why not? Because they're doing it themselves. I love this.

1:06:30One of the coolest things I've seen in the last couple of months. I'm just stoked for Reddit. I'm a long time Reddit fan, you know? Yeah. I mean, it's, it's the little website that could, they just never stopped doing what they do. And it really is the lesson from founders is because there were two companies, Dig and Reddit launched at the same time. And DIG kept trying to be something it wasn't. They started competing with Facebook and they kept changing their interface. Same interface, same focus. Don't change the interface. Evolve the interface on the margins, polish it, but don't go too crazy.

1:07:00This latest update of the iOS software is showing how much frustration people have when you change the interface too much and you've got hundreds of millions of people, billions of people, or even just millions of people who know your product. You don't want to make them relearn it, et cetera, Reddit has been one thing, a community to discuss stuff and through pseudonyms. The pseudonyms mean you have the same handle forever. Theoretically, you can, but you don't have to reveal your identity. And so, you know, your reputation is formed over time from your contributions. There are 350 million in revenue-ish every quarter.

1:07:37They're at 1.4 billion. You know, the sky's the limit for Reddit, I believe. I think that the company becomes more and more valuable. And I think they're an easy takeout candidate for a hundred billion. Yeah. You know, I think somebody is going to come along at some point and just say, you know, too valuable of an asset on, in the AI space, Microsoft, Google, uh, XAI, you know, pick any of the major players. I think met is the obvious one since they understand community. There's somebody to come in here and start buying, you know, and, uh, I thought it was going to be Microsoft. Real gem. Yeah.

1:08:08No, I wouldn't say meta. Cause I, I feel like this is too competing with other meta products, person microsoft they have a history of tuck in communities yeah why not get hub yeah if they microsoft is the perfect candidate because satya nadella has just great vision in terms of acquisitions and come january 20th it's going to be game on reddit most likely to be acquired i think reddit doordash uber and lyft are my four most likely to be acquired in the next uh four years those four will be on the acquire slash merger because some of them might merge or whatever i don't have inside information obviously i don't use public companies this is purely speculation i wouldn't be surprised if reddit lyft doordash and uber were part of something bigger either acquirers acquiree conglomerate put together amazon plus uber waymo plus uber lyft and doordash although i think door i think lyft is kind of like um an anchor because it's so small it would slow people down to be honest it would be better to build from scratch than buy a broken asset i mean i don't say that to be cruel at all sometimes if the asset doesn't have scale yeah and it's up against like giants and it's proven itself to not be able to compete over time there's a reason why lyft didn't get bought during all of this and i've talked to people you know who are kind of i don't want to say insiders but who are analysts of the space they're like it doesn't do anything for another company to buy lyft they could recreate the asset because it's not doesn't have scale whereas doordash and air and airbnb and uber have a scale and when you have a scale and a network effect and 100 million customers whatever it is 50 million customers 150 that scale is worth a lot oh absolutely so i do think uber and doordash and airbnb will be bought in the next four years they'll be part of something bigger i could see amazon specifically uh or google jumping the fence and buying those companies and then spinning them out into other kind of entities waymo plus uber plus doordash would be an amazing amazon competitor Conversely, Amazon buying DoorDash and Uber would then be a massive competitor to Waymo because Amazon has a lot of bets in self-driving, right?

1:10:31I think they own Zoox or a big portion of Zoox or some of these other companies. Expand the aperture a little bit here. Let's say you're Shopify and you want to build out your last mile delivery business. You're lots of money. Why not tap on Lyft? I think because you, like I said, you'd be better off just building it from scratch. But if you said Shopify and Uber or Shopify, DoorDash, Uber, yeah, now you got something. Hold on. Now you've got an Amazon competitor. You put those three together. Wow, Alex, I never really thought about putting... You put DoorDash, Shopify, and Uber together. Uh-huh.

1:11:04That's like$80 billion,$150 billion. What's Shopify's market cap? So I just pulled them all up. So Shopify's$150 flat, Uber's$139 flat, and DoorDash is$73 and change. So you got$375. Call$400. go out 400 you put those three together for 400 you've got a trillion dollar company by putting them together it's a trillion dollar company i would not mind consolidation there frankly just because it would it would do is is foment a a stronger and better amazon competitor to the degree i think it would help us which proves my point at the end of the wrap on i've been saying don't allow the trillion dollar companies to acquire anything or maybe you know whatever it the top 10 just pick let them you know um be able to maybe do tuck-ins but not like the big big or put them under more scrutiny let's say that yeah but then everybody under 500 billion let it rip and take the mag 7 to the mag 17 that's my best advice what else do we got on the docket we got a last docket or we're we're good yeah i want to do uh one more tiny thing which is a bill that's going through Congress slowly called the, um, uh, the kids online safety act or COSA.

1:12:15You may have heard about this, Jason. It's been bouncing around for some time, uh, past the Senate back in July. There's been concerns in the house. There's been work to be done on the bill. And then this weekend, um, everyone's favorite social media CEO, uh, namely Linda Yaccarino, um, came out in, in favor of this. And I was a little bit surprised to see a social media company come out in favor of this bill. Um, she says essentially that at X protecting our children is our top priority, makes a lot of sense. And then she talks about balancing free speech and children's privacy, kind of the standard, uh, debate there.

1:12:56So Jason, I went head and I went through the bill some this morning, trying to sort out what are the complaints? What are the positives here? And my, my gist, the thing that I kind of walked away with is that this bill is pretty big in terms of what it wants to do in terms of algorithmic transparency, letting people opt out of algorithms, age verification. And so I'm kind of curious if it's indicative of, um, access support is indicative of a new trend amongst social media companies that maybe some regulation about things that deal with children defined as 13 and under in this bill is the way forward listen i can tell you yuong cares deeply about kids he believes this is like one of his big issues is like population growth he's a family man he believes in kids uh we're friends obviously i don't speak for him not back channeling anything here but it's pretty obvious he he does yeah he believes in protecting kids and who doesn't And I think, you know, X is also in a very unique position.

1:13:57It's kind of like an adult social network, isn't it? Like, I think their position is like, this is for world leaders, et cetera. Whereas I think like Instagram and TikTok are for kids. Instagram and TikTok are for kids. When I look at young people going into their teens, they all want to be in Instagram and TikTok. X is not like on their mind. They don't want to have like a textual, you know, debate about Ukraine or the stock market or Bitcoin. Like it's that's it's kind of more like it's college. Right. I feel like you're in college or on X. Maybe I think TikTok and Instagram watching teen girls, watching preteens, you know, even I know some people let their eight, nine, 10 year olds.

1:14:40And I think 100 % we should go do what Australia has done and we'll see how they actually make it work. I don't think anybody should be on social media until they're 60. 100%. It's been proven already. It's damaging. I don't care about the freedom of speech and the debates around that. I just know what I see with my own eyes is that you're robbing kids of their childhood if they're on social media and phones. and parents cannot fight this war individually. We have to do it collectively. My hope is that parents realize it's not that these things in and of themselves are damaging. I believe they are.

1:15:17I believe it's like a kid with developing and social dynamics. It's just a little too intense and addictive and they've designed it to be addictive because I know the people who work there. I know Dave Morin. He's told me the stories. I know everybody, Sam Lesson, everybody who worked at Facebook, whatever. These guys were obsessed with making it addicting. And it obviously is. And TikTok is taking to the level. The net, net, net of all this. And if you read, what is Jonathan Haidt's book? Gosh, sorry, my short-term memory. Anxious Generation. And I had him on the All In interview series. You can see it over there.

1:15:52Jonathan Haidt, All In. You'll find it. It's not just that it's damaging. It's that it takes away time with friends. It takes away time in nature. It takes away time in sports. Time from reading books. time from being creative that's what these phones and devices do to kids limit your time for your kids encourage your school to let kids grow there's let grow is like this organization that he mentions over and over again in the book kids should have phone lockers at school they bring their i just got my 15 year old her birthday was yesterday happy birthday lotus i love you she got her phone you know it's 15 i got her the phone um and she loves it but you know i think they should have phone lockers at schools.

1:16:34And the schools that get phone lockers, the kids, you know, there's a little bit of like hand wringing, complaining in the first week. And then by the second week, it's universal. The kids are free from their devices and they look each other in the eyes again and they blossom. That's what it should be. Just like when you go to dinner, we now have a thing at poker games or dinner. We stack the phones. Whoever touches their phone first, believe that, has to pay dinner. Next time you go to dinner, I want you to try this. This is the J-Cal. test. You want to have a great dinner party? Stack the phones in the table.

1:17:07Whoever touches their phone first has to buy dinner. It's just a fun thing to do. And you could also do a thing where you have like a buy, like, you know, before the entrees, after the appetizers, everybody can check their phone for two minutes to make sure, you know, there's nothing going on with the nanny. So you have a two minute phone break between appetizers dinner. Watch how great that dinner party is. When you go to dinner, stack the phones. Whoever does it has to pay for dinner. and you know what happened at a dinner somebody's like what this i'm paying for dinner took their phone back that's amazing free dinner yeah dinner and you know what if somebody else wants to do it now the two of you are paying for dinner and the other three couples are not oh try it it's fun it's a fun thing to do the third person only pays a third the fourth person only pays a quarter so at some point no but i i hear you yeah the difference between uh our dinner parties jason is how offline my group here is.

1:17:56For example, I had to explain to my spouse what Blue Sky was this week because she'd never heard of it. I hope they're my Blue Sky. Yeah, I'm on Blue Sky now. But I mean, but why would she be, right? Right. So anyways, I was going to make a very different point about this. I was going to talk about the duty of care roster and the hour of transparency. And I was going to say, Jason, this really does feel like a very heavy handed regulatory bill. And I thought you were going to take the government out of tech angle, but you went, what? The other way. I just think kids are different. I think you have to treat kids differently when you have a mind that's developing.

1:18:31Do we want kids experimenting with cigarettes, vapes, cannabis, having gender affirming care and stuff like that before their brains are fully developed? All these very considerate things, tattoos. When you're a parent and your kids start to get to a certain age, you realize, oh my Lord, you got to protect the kids. They don't have the ability to make great decisions until they're 25, really. And we kind of let them loose at 18 and 21. And man, I think another thing, kids should not be on the hook for these student loans and they shouldn't be irreversible because they're making that decision at that 18 to 20 year old window.

1:19:10Your brains are not developed. You should be able to get rid of them in bankruptcy. And then we would have some more thoughtfulness about this. You know, you can't get rid of your student loans in bankruptcy. which is the biggest giveaway possible to the lenders thereof no there should be some risk there so that way they won't lend as much and then the cost of college would come down this is this was about as lefty as i think we get on this show i'm sympathetic to everything that you said about children and as a father i absolutely agree i just i struggle to reconcile my general vibes that parents should be allowed to make these decisions versus the federal government and there is something to be said about if this bill passes because it does not ban social media it merely requires modifications to social media platforms with more than 10 million monthly actives to be clear and there's concerns from the eff and others about the quote duty of care standard and how that could lead to content moderation that's very aggressive van paul's against this a lot of other people um but we'll leave it here where do you stand which part of it where do you stand because i don't believe i don't want to seek content moderation i just want to figure out a way to keep kids off of this stuff.

1:20:19Well, so that's why I said you short-circuited my entire complaint, because I thought this was going to be way too technical, way too difficult, and leave too much open area for companies to get in trouble different ways in different administrations. And so I was going to argue that the way this is set up is kind of a mess. Your endorsement of the Australian approach just precludes all that. It just does away with it, because then it's not a question. Yeah. I mean, I also think, by the way, there's like a whole thing about pornography on the internet this idea that porn should be available 24 hours a day to everybody and you know we we you would never allow a kid to go buy pornography in a store but they're this whole generation they've it's really messed with their brains having free access to porn and i know like when i was a kid you know like there was like a playboy magazine you know there's a stack of them hidden on a rooftop in brooklyn we would go when we were 12 or 13 years old and see these pictures we're like whoa no oh my god what these kids are exposed to and their version of that which is they take out their phones and they show people stuff it's like oh my god it's just dark and not what life is about not what sexuality is about it's a little beyond our mandate here but i think we do need to think about that and uh you know here in texas uh there's a big controversy because all the uh major pornography adult sites do not allow you to load from IP addresses this stuff because there is a bill and we'll look into it a further episode issue episode but there's some bill here where you're going to have to verify your age in order to look at a pornography site in Texas or get a VPN which everybody's on VPN that's yeah that's really good for VPNs it's a screen door you can walk around well it's another level that would I think protect kids etc and you know what I'm open actually to having that discussion I I don't know.

1:22:11Like I'm a freedom of speech guy, but I'm not like unlimited access to porn for kids guy. Maybe I'm becoming like a dad. You're starting to sound very much like a California Democrat. Now I've got a solution for that problem. That's the joke there. No, no, no. My point is that you sound like someone who's like, we can do something about this versus we should not do anything about that, which is the more libertarian perspective. Yes. I know I'm libertarian. Except when it comes to kids, I don't think that that's a bad perspective. take the only thing that i think technologists would raise is how do you want to age verify and then how do you want to let people maintain that verification across devices because it's a non-trivial point um and i don't think that there's a good answer for it here's a here's a breaking news uh people are making progress with these robots by the way these 30 40k robots check on optimus now walking up and down hills remember we're making fun of tesla for the optimus you know like being tethered at the first time you showed it in the next year having people standing next to it at the all-in summit we had or all-in holiday party we had a robot there um but look at this it like just re-got its footing there it's better than me when i used to drink i'm not gonna lie look at there's alex leaving the bar no he didn't fall down in the middle of uh highway 101 in san francisco so it doesn't this is the optimist uh you know and so for people who like mock technology like just understand the exponential technology and if you've seen other robotics companies figure out walking up and down hills like yeah ai is going to make these things learn faster and faster and faster and faster and faster and the hardware is already there yeah figure a twist from our company that we've talked about on the show a lot uh had to tweet out today about how they're like come work for us we're going to make millions of these things that's the temperature amongst people who are currently working on them and you know elon tweets a lot but he also tweets things that he thinks are the most impactful to his businesses unsurprisingly starship launches and if he's showing off this much optimus it's probably indicative of i know i'm talking to jason but like indicative of where his mind's at is my read of it and that means it's probably doing well so yeah okay awesome we're back on wednesday we're back wednesday wait are we taping an episode tuesday though with uh sundee to do an ai show tomorrow Oh, I'm sorry.

1:24:27Let me rephrase that. Live news will return on Wednesday. There should be a Sunny AI special tomorrow. Awesome. And I hope we go live with that. So for my great producers, let's do that. Thank you to researcher Matty. Thanks to producer Court, John and Chris. And thank you, of course, to Alex Wilhelm. You can follow him at x.com slash Alex. Yes, sir. And we're just trying to get 5 % better a day here. Tell us what we can do better. I'm jason at calicanis.com for live. DMs open at Jason on all platforms, pretty much. I'm on Blue Sky as Jason M. Calicanis, but i don't have any followers i can't find anybody over there discovery is terrible i'll follow you so you have at least one kind of like a clunky version of like twitter from 10 years ago right is it what is it just like a vote against x and against threads to go there is there some feature that's great that you like or just so far it's only the people i don't i'm not a big block guy so i don't block a lot of people but if you do apparently it's great for that not my jam um i just like to go there because it's like all my friends moved one city over i have to drive to go see them it's so weird yeah that's exactly what it's like it's like oh you moved to the i got it yeah you moved to brooklyn in manhattan if you moved to brooklyn it was like you're excommunicated i'm never going to see you again you're dead i do think um yeah i uh i like the way the new block system works on x and i'll just announce here how blocking works for me okay if you are obnoxious and funny or insightful you're going to get a like and i'm going to engage you if you're obnoxious and insulting but not funny and clever i'm just going to snap block you and then i'll we'll still see each other stuff you just can't participate in a discussion with me so if you say like tds you know whatever whatever if you say like listen i don't think you have tds but i do think you should recognize and this is your blind spots yeah i'm all in right or make a funny joke about my glasses yeah maybe i'll think it's funny but that's a high bar for funny for me uh so just being i want to have intelligent discussions online or funny clever intelligent funny that's my zone of excellence and that's where i like to be i don't want to be with like stupid drive-by tweets and by the way if it's an insightful compliment like you you if you give me i'm a sucker for the for the sandwich hey this is i I'd love this.

1:26:43I've been listening to twist for 10 years. I think you're wrong. Here's your shit sandwich. And then you say something nice about all in or my investments at the end or my weight loss. That's the way to do it, folks. If you want to get a follow, that's like the really gold standard. Also a great way to deal with feedback for employees. If you're a manager, I've learned that one the hard way. Can't go all one way. A little better at that myself. I was a little live about twist 500. I was like, we got to do better. But then I was like, but I think we've done a great job, but I think we need to do better.

1:27:12so more twist 500 coming on yes after we uh take into account jason's latest changes but they will make it better so everyone get excited we have a list of companies we are preparing to share with you exactly i mean i the goal is i want people to understand that we suffer over every selection and we really understand their business so maybe it requires like an act of journalism maybe we have to put a researcher uh on maybe contacting the founder and asking a couple questions over email and maybe, yeah, getting some insights or something about it, or maybe actually calling the venture capital, asking them a question.

1:27:43We could actually do a random act of journalism. I would love, I would love to do that. We have resources. Yeah. Yeah. Well, we'll talk about that offline. Anyways, everybody, we adore you. We'll be back on Tuesday and Wednesday and Friday. Goodbye. Bye.