Relief and Volatility Ahead for U.S. Stocks

0:00Mike Wilson:Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing recent concerns for equities and how that may be changing. It's Monday, November 10th at 1130 a.m. in New York, so let's get after it. We're right in the middle of earnings season. Under the surface, there may appear to be high dispersion, but we're actually seeing positive developments for a broadening in growth. Specifically, the median stock is seeing its best earnings growth in four years, and the S &P 500 revenue beat rate is running two times its historical average.

0:36Mike Wilson:These are clear signs that the earnings recovery is broadening and that pricing power is firming to offset tariffs. We're also watching out for other predictors of soft spots. And over the past week, the seasonal weakness in earnings revision breadth appears to be over. For reference, this measure troughed at 6 % on October 21st and is now at 11%. The improvement is being led by software, transports, energy, autos, and healthcare. Despite this improvement in earnings revisions, the overall market traded heavy last week on the back of two other risks. The first risk relates to the Fed's less dovish bias at October's FOMC meeting.

1:15Mike Wilson:The Fed suggested they are not on a preset course to cut rates again in December, so it's not a coincidence that the U.S. equity market topped on the day of this meeting. Meanwhile, investors are also keeping an eye on the growth data during the third quarter. If it's stronger than anticipated, it could mean there's less dovish action from a Fed than the market expects or needs for higher prices. I've been highlighting a less dovish Fed as a risk for stocks. But it's important to point out that the labor market is also showing increasing signs of weakness. Part of this is directly related to the government shutdown.

1:49Mike Wilson:But the private labor data clearly illustrates a jobs market that's slowing beyond just government jobs. This is creating some tension in the markets, that the Fed will be late to cut rates, which increases the risk the recovery since April falls flat. In my view, labor market weakness coupled with the administration's desire to run it hot means that ultimately the Fed is likely to deliver more dovish policy than the market currently expects. But without official jobs data confirming this trend, the Fed is moving slower than the equity market may like. The other risk the market has been focused on is the government shutdown itself.

2:26Mike Wilson:And there appears to be two main channels through which these variables are affecting stock prices. The first is tighter liquidity, as reflected in the recent decline in bank reserves. The government shutdown has resulted in fewer disbursements to government employees and other programs. Once the government shutdown ends, which appears imminent, these payments will resume, which translates into an easing of liquidity. The second impact of the shutdown is weaker consumer spending due to a large number of workers furloughed and benefits like SNAP halted. As a result, consumer discretionary company earnings revisions have rolled over.

3:02Mike Wilson:The good news is that the shutdown may be coming to an end and alleviate these market concerns. Finally, tariffs are facing an upcoming Supreme Court decision. There were questions last week on how affected stocks were reacting to this development. Overall, we saw fairly muted relative price reactions from the stocks that would be most affected. We think this relates to a couple of variables. First, the Trump administration could leverage a number of other authorities to replace the existing tariffs. Second, even in a scenario where the Supreme Court overturns tariffs, refunds are likely to take a significant amount of time, potentially well into 2026.

3:40Mike Wilson:So what does all of this mean? Weak earnings seasonality is coming to an end, along with the government shutdown. Both of these factors should lead to some relief in what has been softer equity markets more recently. But we expect volatility to persist until the Fed fully commits to the run-it-hot strategy of the administration. Thanks for tuning in. I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find thoughts on the market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out. The preceding content is informational only and based on information available when created.

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