The Boost From Easing Market Rules

0:00Andrew Sheets:Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, a core theme of easing policy and the latest iteration in the U.S. mortgage market. It's Thursday, January 15th at 2 p.m. in London.

0:19Andrew Sheets:Central to our thinking for the year ahead is that we're seeing an unusual combination of easing monetary policy, fiscal policy, and regulatory policy all at the same time. This isn't normal, and usually this type of support is only deployed under much more dire economic conditions. All this is also happening alongside another large supportive force, over$3 trillion of AI and data center related spending that Morgan Stanley expects, all to happen through the end of 2028. This broad-based easing is a global theme. Equities in Japan have been rallying on hopes of even a larger fiscal easing in that country.

1:00Andrew Sheets:In Europe, we think that Germany will continue to spend more while the European Central Bank and Bank of England cut rates more than the market expects. But like many things these days, it's the United States that's at the heart of the story. We think that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates this year, even as core inflation persists above its target. The U.S. government will spend about$1.9 trillion more than it takes in, even after adjusting for tariffs, as tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act kick in. But my focus today is on the third leg of this proverbial three-legged stimulative stool.

1:40Andrew Sheets:While easing monetary and fiscal policy probably get the most focus, easing regulatory policy is another big lever that's being pulled in the same direction. Regulatory policy is opaque, and let's face it, can be a little boring. But it's extremely important for how financial markets function. Regulation drives the incentives for the buyers of many assets, especially in the all-important banking and insurance sectors. It can set almost by definition what price an asset needs to trade at to be attractive, or how much of an asset a particular actor in the market can or cannot hold. Regulatory policy tightened dramatically in the wake of the global financial crisis.

2:24Andrew Sheets:But now, it's starting to ease. Our U.S. bank equity analysts expect that finalization of key capital rules later this year, an important regulatory step, could free up about$5.8 trillion, with a T, of balance sheet capacity across the global systematically important banks. In mid-December, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the FDIC withdrew lending guidelines from 2013 that had discouraged banks from making loans to more highly indebted companies. And just last week, the U.S. administration announced that the U.S. mortgage agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, would buy$200 billion of mortgages to hold on their own balance sheet, a significant move that quickly tightened spreads in this key market.

3:13Andrew Sheets:For investors, we see several implications. This simultaneous easing across monetary, fiscal, and now regulatory policy supports a market that runs hot and where valuations may overshoot. And in the specific case of these agency mortgages, my colleague Jay Bacow and our mortgage strategy team think that this shift is now very quickly in the price. Having previously been positive on agency mortgage spreads, they've now turned to neutral. Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts of the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

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