The Future of North American Trade

0:00Ariana Salvatore:Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research for Morgan Stanley. Today, I'll be talking about our expectations for the upcoming USMCA review and how the landscape has shifted from last year. It's Wednesday, February 11th at 4 p.m. in London. As we highlighted last fall, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement is approaching its first mandatory review in 2026. At the time, we argued that the risks were skewed modestly to the upside. Structural contingencies built into the agreement we think cap downside risk and tilt most outcomes toward preserving and over time deepening North American trade integration.

0:38Ariana Salvatore:That framing, we think, remains broadly intact. But some developments over the past few months suggest that the timing and the structure of that deeper integration could end up looking a little bit different than we initially expected. We still see a scenario where negotiators resolve targeted frictions and make limited updates, but we're increasingly mindful that some of the more ambitious policymaker goals, for example, new chapters on AI, critical minerals, or more explicit guardrails on Chinese investment in Mexico, may be harder to formalize ahead of the mid-2026 deadline. So what does the base case as we framed it last year still look like?

1:14Ariana Salvatore:We continue to expect an outcome that preserves the agreement and resolves several outstanding disputes, auto rules of origin, labor enforcement procedures, and select digital trade provisions. On the China question, our view from last year also still holds. We expect incremental steps by Mexico to reduce transshipment risk and better align with U.S. trade priorities, though likely without a fully institutionalized enforcement mechanism by mid-2026. And remember, the USMCA's 10-year escape clause keeps the agreement enforced at least through 2036, meaning the probability of a disruptive trade shock is structurally quite low.

1:52Ariana Salvatore:What may be shifting is not the direction of travel, but the pace and the form. A more comprehensive agreement may ultimately come, but possibly with a longer runway or through side agreements rather than updates to the USMCA text itself. Of course, those come with an enforcement risk, just given the lack of congressional backing. We still expect the formal review to conclude around mid-2026, albeit with a growing possibility that deeper institutional alignment happens further out or via parallel frameworks. It also is possible that into that deadline, all three sides decide to extend negotiations out further into the future, extending the uncertainty for even longer.

2:29Ariana Salvatore:So what does it all mean for macro and markets? For Mexico, maintaining tariff-free access to the U.S. continues to be essential. The base case supports ongoing manufacturing integration, especially in autos and electronics, but without the newer, more strategic chapters that policymakers have discussed, the agreement would leave Mexico in a position that it's accustomed to, stable but short of a full nearshoring acceleration. This aligns with our view from last year, but we now see clearer near-term risks to the thesis of rapid institutional deeper trade integration. For FX, the peso benefits from reduced uncertainty, but the effect is likely gradual.

3:06Ariana Salvatore:The absence of tangible progress on adding to the original deal suggests a more muted near-term impulse. For Canada, the implications are similarly two-sided. Near-term volatility around the review is likely underpriced, but a limited agreement should eventually lead to medium-term dollar-cad downside. On the economics front, last year we argued that the review would reinforce North America as a manufacturing block, even if it didn't fully resolve supply chain diversification from China. We think that remains true today, but with the added nuance that some of the more ambitious integration pathways may be pushed further out or structured outside of the formal USMCA chapters.

3:42Ariana Salvatore:So, bottom line, our base case remains a measured, pragmatic outcome that reduces uncertainty but preserves the core benefits of North American trade and supports growth across key asset classes. But it also increasingly looks like an outcome that may leave some strategic opportunities on the table for now, setting the stage for deeper alignment later on a slightly longer horizon or through a more flexible framework. Thanks for listening. As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen and share thoughts on the market with a friend or colleague today.

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