Is Trump’s deal with Iran embarrassing for the US? – The Latest

0:00Nosheen Iqbal:This is The Guardian.

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1:27The military who were the ones carrying out the suppression of dissent are now completely in charge as far as we can tell. It's a different Iran, but by all accounts, it's not a better Iran in any way.

1:41Nosheen Iqbal:From The Guardian's Today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Noshin Iqbal.

1:49Nosheen Iqbal:Julian Borgia, your senior international correspondent for The Guardian. And last night, we finally have something close to approaching a peace deal. I mean, in characteristic Trump form, he sort of declared, ships of the world, start your engines, let the oil flow. What exactly has happened? What's in this agreement? Well, bottom line, we don't really know. There are no published details. There's no text as yet. So confusion surrounds. So we do know what it's not about. there doesn't seem to be any detail about the nuclear issues, which we should remember is what the US and Israel first went to war about.

2:32What it is about is Hormuz and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. But even there, we don't really know the details. When exactly will it open? Trump is saying on Friday, the Iranians saying over a 30 day period after this deal is done. We don't know whether there are different versions on whether Iran will be henceforward taking tolls or some kind of fees. Trump again insists no, but Iranian media is saying yes, from now on it will be under Iranian control and there will be some form of fees. The other part of it we don't know is about cash. the Iranians are saying that some of Iran's frozen assets will be unfrozen and and will be delivered before even Friday and the signing and then more of it afterwards and that is not clear certainly from the US side so a lot of uncertainty about the details.

3:42Nosheen Iqbal:So I mean without pointing out the fact that the US has won a victory and something that wasn't a problem when it first began this war, like reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which was, of course, open before it began attacking Iran. How did we get to this moment? I mean, I'm thinking particularly of Pakistan as a peace broker, which has also conducted its own skirmishes on the border with Afghanistan since these talks began. I mean, how has that happened? And what role is Pakistan playing? Well, Pakistan has played its cards very well. And I think it was mostly the head of the army, Field Marshal Asim Muneer, who seemed to have got on the right side of Trump before all this began.

4:24Trump used to call him his favorite Field Marshal. I think it's because he praised Trump during or after an earlier confrontation between Pakistan and India, and Trump likes that. Suggested he was nominated for a peace prize. Yes, that always helps with Trump. And so they came forward and they were acceptable to both sides. And so they have pursued, they haven't given up, they pursued both sides, and they've been quite dogged in their diplomacy. And eventually, eventually, it paid off, but it has paid off because it does suit both sides now to get out of this mess.

5:05Nosheen Iqbal:Well, Julian, from a diplomatic and political perspective, there is a lot of focus on the sort of pantomime of Trump in this, on oil prices, on energy prices, on the performance of the stock market. But when it comes to the actual true cost of this war to the Iranians, to the Iranian people, can you tell me what that's looked like over the last three months? There has been a horrendous cost. We're talking about maybe 3 ,000 to 6 ,000 people killed, many more injured the estimates of the damage done 200 to 300 billion but also don't forget the Lebanese the Lebanese have suffered as many casualties in what people see this as a see as a sort of sideshow to the Iran but of course it is part of the war and the Lebanese have lost similar a number of people and seen villages across the south flattened and much of their territory now occupied.

6:03So the damage and the suffering has been spread over the region.

6:08Nosheen Iqbal:And it's the civilian infrastructure as well, right? And I'm thinking about, you know, the water reservoirs that have been taken out, the Minab school bombing, the bridges that have been bombed. And as you've said, in the south of Lebanon, entire villages being completely raised to the ground. The question of Lebanon, of course, is quite important here, isn't it? It's quite complicated because Israel say that they're not going to be withdrawing their military from the region. And I wonder if that's the case, then how contingent is this deal on the situation there between Israel and Lebanon? Well, if you listen to the Iranians, it is very contingent.

6:42They've said it's an integral part of it. Also, Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shabazz Sharif, also said that this is also about Lebanon. So this is another vulnerability in the deal because we've heard from the Israelis already, as you said, that they have no intention of going anywhere. They're going to stay there. You could imagine there'll be further clashes with Hezbollah. And so this is a big weakness. There is a third player here, Israel. that has various motives. One is security, the other political from the point of view of Benjamin Netanyahu, he's coming out to elections, has not really much to show for it in terms of security.

7:25So he is very much a wild card now when it comes to this ceasefire, this agreement holding.

7:33Nosheen Iqbal:Nonetheless, this process is now rolling and we're due to see a memorandum signed on Friday, which will then kick off, I believe, 60 days of intensive technical talks in which you imagine that Iran's nuclear deal, or lack thereof, the question of sanctions will be discussed. Julian, how much faith do you have in those talks? And what exactly, what else is on the table there? They are going to be very difficult talks in a short timeline, because these issues about Iran's right to enrich uranium, what happens to its sizable stockpile of highly enriched uranium. These have been there for many years.

8:16Of course, they were addressed in the 2015 deal done by Barack Obama that Trump famously walked out of, and now they've become the center of the issue once again. Well, he said it was a rubbish deal, didn't he?

8:31Nosheen Iqbal:I mean, he criticized Obama's deal to the nth degree and now has a worse one? Well, this is a real problem in terms of coming to a deal this time because it'll be evident if the deal that Trump comes to is worse than Barack Obama's. And this would be political, very difficult for Trump. And so those parameters on the negotiations that will be hard. But it's worth remembering that before this war started, two days before this war started, the two sides were fairly close to a deal by all accounts. And it's hard to imagine that the deal they come to in Geneva, if they come to one, will be very different from that one that was on the table back in February.

9:15Nosheen Iqbal:And in the meantime, we've had this absolute devastation in the region, complete instability. Nonetheless, Julian, we know that the Trump administration will declare this as a victory, irrespective of actually the reality of that. And can you just, I guess, tell me the situation for the US? I mean, how much worse is it really for them? Well, of course, you have an economic cost that is immediate and will last over months, if not years, in terms of inflation, petrol prices, agriculture, inputs to agriculture. So there is an economic cost. But also in terms of US standing in the world, I mean, they went to a war and achieved none of their aims so far and was seen to have been held at bay by really the use of drones and of asymmetrical warfare.

10:06They've been shown not to be able to protect their allies in the region. Their bases in the region have been shown to be vulnerable. They were hit very hard or something that they tried to keep secret. So the US emerges from this as a very much weakened player on the world stage.

10:28Nosheen Iqbal:And in the meantime, the Iranian regime can probably claim this as their victory, right? Well, by surviving. The regime can claim to have looked the US and Israel in the eye and face them down and survived. It probably makes them stronger in terms of internal opposition. and the military who were the ones carrying out the suppression of dissent before now are now completely in charge as far as we can tell. The secular part of the regime, the presidency, seems to be very much weakened. So it's a different Iran, but by all accounts, what we can see so far is not a better Iran in any way. Julian, thank you for your time.

11:14Thank you. Thank you for having me on.

11:17Nosheen Iqbal:That's it for today. Thanks again to our senior international correspondent, Julian Forger. And do check out our sister podcast, Politics Weekly, where they are discussing the social media ban for under-16s as announced by the Prime Minister today. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest. Today in Focus will be back with you as usual tomorrow morning and The Latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was produced by Annie Levespa. The senior producer is Ryan Ramgobin and the lead producer is Zoe Hitch. The presenter is me, Noshe Nikval.

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12:19Nosheen Iqbal:This is The Guardian.