Israel and Iran trade strikes: what does this mean for peace deal? – The Latest

0:00Nosheen Iqbal:This is The Guardian.

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1:26prestige project. He outwardly claims to have complete control of the situation. Obviously, he doesn't.

1:35Nosheen Iqbal:From The Guardian's Today in Focus, this is The Latest. I'm Noshin Iqbal.

1:42Nosheen Iqbal:Julian Borgia, you're The Guardian's senior international correspondent, and you've reported extensively from the Middle East and Washington. It's now been 100 days since this war with Iran began. And there's been a fragile ceasefire in place since April. But over the last 24 hours, we've seen this dramatic escalation with missiles being launched first time in two months, direct strikes on northern Israel, and with fresh explosions heard in Tehran just this morning. Julian, what on earth is going on? Well, in the 100 days since the ceasefire, Obviously, there's been no deal. The U.S. and Iran have been unable to come to an agreement, whether it's over the nuclear issues of how much cash Iran wants up first, opening the Strait of Hamas.

2:32They haven't been able to get to a deal. And in that vacuum, in the absence of a peace deal, this long-running Israel-Hasbola war in Lebanon has stepped up. It continues to burn away in the undergrowth, and it flared up over the weekend. Hezbollah inflicted some casualties on Israeli IDF. Israel hit back by hitting the southern suburbs of Beirut, Dahir. Now, that was supposed to be out of bounds under this loose agreement between U.S. and Israel and Iran. and Iran had said, you come anywhere near Beirut, we will strive back. And so when Israel did that, then Iran, to sort of save face, having guaranteed Hezbollah that they will protect them in Beirut, launched a salvo of missiles, the first since the ceasefire.

3:32They were all intercepted, but Israel was not going to hold back without a response. Trump tried to get Netanyahu not to retaliate. That's not really acceptable inside Israeli politics, not to strike back. And so Netanyahu striked back.

3:49Nosheen Iqbal:Clearly, there was a calculation that had they launched those attacks on Beirut, then Iran would have responded in the way that it did. These attacks happened just hours after Trump made clear that he had called Netanyahu and asked him not to retaliate, presumably to demonstrate to the Iranians that there was some distance with the US between these attacks and Israel. Trump apparently is desperate to end the war. In a phone call with the Financial Times on Sunday, he said, I call the shots. Lettingham, who doesn't call the shots. Julian, what do you make of these contradictions and of the states of the relationship between the two of them?

4:24Nosheen Iqbal:And, you know, what the war game really is here? Well, they've got two different constituencies. Trump wants to get prices under control. He wants the stock market to do well. And in particular, he would like some peace while the World Cup is on. It's a big thing for him, prestige project. And he has said there is going to be a ceasefire and the ceasefire to hold. It's a question and a test of his authority. You know, he outwardly claims, overtly claims to have complete control of the situation. Obviously, he doesn't because Netanyahu has his own constituency. The right wing in Israel is not going to stand for an attack from Iran without an Israeli response.

5:09They're not going to stand for a Hezbollah attack without some significant response. He has to keep his coalition together. He is heading towards elections, which at the moment, at present rankings, he will lose. His bloc will lose out. So he has to do something. The peace deal, as it stands, as it has been laid out in reports, does not suit him at all, because he will go to the country not having done what he set out to do, which was to stop the nuclear program in Iran once and for all. This deal, if it is as it stands, will not do that.

5:47Nosheen Iqbal:So to put it most crudely, Netanyahu needs a war to potentially win in the elections and Trump needs to end it to do well in the midterms. Yes, absolutely. And so it's really a test of strength between the two men. Netanyahu has found he can get away with a bit before completely alienating Trump and leading to the kind of outbursts that we've seen in recent weeks. He has to walk that line because completely alienating the U.S. also is unpopular in Israel. He's tried to keep various parts of his coalition together, and that means in terms of the relationship with the U.S., he has to carefully walk a line, show that he has independent agency, but not piss off the Americans so that they take actual action to withhold or aid, something like that, something really tangible.

6:50Nosheen Iqbal:What about from Iran's perspective? You know, what do we know about the situation on the ground when it comes to their weapons capability, their military strength, their economy? What do we know about what's going on there? Well, from the recent reporting, we've heard that they have retained a lot of their missile capability. They still have substantial drone capability. Now, in terms of sort of social cohesion, that's always the unknown. But there hasn't been a major threat to the regime since these attacks. You can see a whole dream of regime change that was really sold to the Americans by the Israelis has not materialized.

7:26So as a regime, it is not under direct threat. Arguably, it's been strengthened. The harder line elements, the IRGC, have been strengthened since the war began. So they believe that they can hold out. And that is their strategy to outlast the Americans.

7:46Nosheen Iqbal:And if this wasn't already quite a complicated situation in the region, you then have the intervention of the Houthis, who have also launched a missile strike on Israel and have declared that they will ban all Israeli ships from the Red Sea. Julian, what will the ramifications of that look like? They're only going to target Israeli shipping, so it won't close the Red Sea, which was, of course, a great fear, as well as the Strait of Hormuz, this other vital global portal, the Red Sea, leading up to the Suez Canal, would also be blocked. They're not doing that because they realise that that would bring on intensive attacks on them once again.

8:31and they're trying to rebuild since the ceasefire with the Americans last year. They are trying to rebuild. On the other hand, they cannot be seen to be shying away from defending Hezbollah and taking action alongside Iran in case of an extremist. So the Houthis too have to walk a line. They don't want to bring in the full wrath of the Americans on them, but they want to show that they are still a player.

9:00Nosheen Iqbal:Julian, we're now hearing reports from both sides, from Iran and Israel, that they will cease attacks. And this is subject to a couple of clauses. One, that there is a pause in Israeli attacks in Lebanon. And two, that Hezbollah also stopped attacking Israel. Trump has posted that both countries are looking to do an immediate ceasefire. So it's a delicate situation, to say the least. As you said, Lebanon has been a sticking point throughout this war. But how important are the next few hours, days for peace? I think the whole thing remains really fragile. As long as they can't come to an overall deal, then the situation in the region is really dangerous, especially as you have someone in the middle of that.

9:44This is Benjamin Netanyahu, who is in his interest to keep a conflict going and to, in his eyes, finish the job with Iran. Though, from his point of view, they're still unfinished business, which makes this sort of limbo between war and peace that we're in at the moment all the more dangerous.

10:07Nosheen Iqbal:Julian, thank you for making sense of what is quite a difficult situation to comprehend. Thank you. That's it for today. My thanks to Julian Borger, The Guardian's senior international correspondent. You can keep up with all of his reporting and live coverage of this story over at theguardian.com. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest. Today in Focus will be back in your feeds as usual tomorrow morning. The Latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was produced by Bryony Moore and Annie Levespa. It was presented by me, Noshi Nikval, and the senior producer was Ryan Ramkogin.

10:41Nosheen Iqbal:This is The Guardian.

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