Labour, u ok hun?

0:00This is The Guardian.

0:30But batch payments? Wow. Automated accounts payable? Even better. All in one place? That's a big one. And I can keep track from my phone while I get the job done. No bills in sight. What a life. Do right by yourself and your business. And search XERO for your free trial. Conditions apply.

0:58It has been quite the week for West Streeting. It was only seven days ago, after Labour's disastrous local elections, that all eyes turned on the health secretary, perhaps the most ambitious man in Parliament. But we need someone from within the cabinet to step forward as the leader, and then we will have a new leader of the party without having to have a leadership election. Would he now finally make his move to kill Keir Starmer's premiership? What we've seen in the last couple of hours since the Prime Minister's speech is a trickle, perhaps more than a trickle, of MP after MP. First, dozens of MPs called for Starmer to go.

1:37More than 50 Labour MPs have come out and said they... There are at least 70 now who no longer back the PM, including... Was it all some West Streeting plot? Then on Tuesday came the ministers. The community's minister, Miata Fanbula, has resigned. I've just learned exclusively Jess Phillips has resigned from government. Many, notably, said to be allies of West. One of those resignations came from health minister Zubir Ahmed, an ally of West Streeting. By Wednesday, almost every front page claimed that streeting was about to go. What have you said, Mr Streeting? Did you ask the Prime Minister to resign?

2:21Allies of the Health Secretary Wes Streeting are telling us that they expect him to launch a challenge against Sir Keir Starmer, perhaps as soon as Thursday. Is he still the Health Secretary? Can we just confirm that? Again, I don't know. I'm in your studio answering your questions, Sarah. On Thursday lunchtime, it came. Well, I'm literally just hearing in my ear that the health secretary, Wes Streeting, has resigned. All morning, we have been wondering whether... Streeting was resigning as health secretary. But he wasn't challenging Starmer yet. In it, he says, it is now clear that you will not lead the Labour Party into the next general election, that Labour MPs and Labour unions want the debate about what comes next to be a battle of ideas.

3:11And then, plot twist, on Thursday evening, news from the North. Breaking news there. Josh Simons is standing down. Makerfield MP Josh Simons was stepping down to allow Andy Burnham a fighting chance to win his seat, return to Parliament and make his play to be PM. From The Guardian, I'm Nashi Anikbal. Today in Focus. What happens to Labour now?

3:43Raphael Baer, welcome back to Today in Focus.

3:46Rafael Behr:It's a pleasure to be here. Now, you are a political columnist for The Guardian, and we are talking to you on Thursday, hours after the resignation of the Health Secretary, West Streeting. He said in his letter, where we need vision, we have a vacuum. Where we need direction, we have drift. What did you make of his resignation? Well, as significant as his departure was the fact that he didn't then also go on to directly challenge the prime minister for his job. And so it feels a little bit as if we've been waiting quite a long time to know whether or not West Streeting has the support, has the momentum to be a challenger, to take on Keir Starmer for that job.

4:31Rafael Behr:you get the impression perhaps he felt that momentum had risen to such a critical pitch over the last 24 hours he had no choice but to stand down regardless of whether or not he had the the MP support the nominations that he needed to be a candidate in any leadership contest so it feels as if having felt enough sufficient pressure to as it were wield the knife against the prime minister he's he's flashed the knife but not fully wielded it so it's quite curious in that respect But look, the big picture here is that it hasn't been a secret that West Streeting has ambitions to be prime minister, to replace Keir Starmer, that he's been dissatisfied for quite a long time.

5:09Rafael Behr:And as I say, I suppose he came to the conclusion that, to use the rather crude idiom, he kind of had to piss or get off the pot on this one. And this had been a long time coming. It's interesting you say that about streeting, because as far back as I can remember, every time his name is mentioned, he is also talked up the self-anointed next leader of the Labour Party. And yet, you know, as we've seen, he needed 81 MPs to back him in a challenge against Starmer. And he hasn't actually gotten there. I mean, does that suggest he's just not that popular in the party as he thought he was? You know, that basically wears their just not that into you.

5:46Rafael Behr:Well, we don't know that he doesn't have the 81 names. You have to assume that if he did, then we would be having a different conversation now. It's certainly been the case that there is a section of the Parliamentary Labour Party and best represented, I think, in the Cabinet as well. If asked the question, if not Keir Starmer, who do you think has the necessary capabilities to do the job? I would say, maybe with some caveats, but they say we're streeting. A large part of that is because he's considered to be the best performer. and that is a deficiency of Keir Starmer. No one really doubts that he's not very good at telling a story.

6:23Rafael Behr:He's not very good at persuasion. The question is whether you can turn a few dozen, a few score MPs who think that's self-evidently true. He's the best communicator. If there were a vacancy or a contest and he was in it, he might be my candidate. If you can crystallize that and harden it into, will you be my shock troops to go over the top and make this happen now? And there it seems that there's been a bit of a miscalculation that to have notional promises of, look, when it comes to it, you seem to be my candidate versus, yeah, put us on the spreadsheet. We're 100 percent down for you. That's where there seems to have been a bit of a, let's say, a miscommunication.

7:14Raph, it has turned out to be quite the day of political drama. Josh Simons, the Labour MP for Makerfield in Greater Manchester, announced on Thursday evening that he was stepping down from his seat to force a by-election that Andy Burnham could then stand in. And it seems like it's been a pretty good day for Andy Burnham, right?

7:34Rafael Behr:It certainly feels that Andy Burnham, having been in a tricky position, now has been thrown a lifeline, a double lifeline, because as we were discussing, West Streeting hasn't initiated an immediate contest. and after a lot of failed attempts to persuade someone to step aside, Josh Summons has fallen on his sword and there is a theoretical pathway for Burnham now to get into Parliament. Everyone knows he wants to be a candidate to replace Keir Starmer, join whatever contest, should there be one, whenever it happens, he's potentially on the ballot paper. But we've always got to remember he's still got to win the seat and there's got to be a by-election.

8:15Rafael Behr:there's still a lot of moving parts in this genius plan to somehow get Andy Burnham from being Mayor of Manchester to Leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister. But yes, I think it's certainly he looks in better shape now by the end of the recording of this podcast than he was not that long ago. And Keir Starmer has reportedly indicated that Labour would allow Burnham to contest this having already blocked him from doing so in the Gorton and Denton by-election back in February. But as you say, Burnham can't take for granted that he will win. This will be a tough campaign. Obviously, all of this is predicated on Andy Burnham winning the seat.

8:54Rafael Behr:And unsurprisingly, Reform UK, who came second in Makerfield in the general election, it's not a huge majority, it's about 5 ,000, Reform UK will throw everything at this. And they've said they will. and they will absolutely want to quash and crush Burnham's aspirations, blow up his candidacy before it's even got off the launch pad. It's worth also saying this will be a very interesting test of whether Andy Burnham can persuade everyone else, all of the potentially available stop reform voters, which is a lot, people who vote Green, people who vote Lib Dem, even people who vote Conservative, can he galvanise them to say, OK, look, this is basically a question of who are you with?

9:37Rafael Behr:Are you with a liberal, centre-left, moderate, whatever you call that, family of voters? Or are you with the hardline nationalists? Are you with reform? So that is going to be actually a dry run for the question I think Labour will want to put at the general election. So it is going to be a really interesting by-election campaign. And so what impact do you think this has then on the other names that have been suggested as candidates, you know, like former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Reiner, even Environment Minister and former Labour leader, one-time wannabe Ed Miliband? This is exactly the problem that we've had over the last 48, 72 hours.

10:12Rafael Behr:There are so many names around, and it's all got into sort of multidimensional chess, not least because Andy Burnham is probably the most popular choice in the broad middle, what we call the soft left of the Labour Party and in the Parliamentary Party. And then you had until today, you had the additional problem for Angela Rayner, who I think would also be a popular candidate on the left of the party, that she had an HMRC investigation hanging over her. And now that has been removed. And it's interesting, it's been removed with more cleanliness, I think, than some of her critics or rivals might have hoped.

10:49Rafael Behr:She hasn't been penalised. It seems to have been understood that broadly it was a misunderstanding. standing and so in terms of the damage done to her reputation look that Angela Rayna lots of people get very angry with her that the conservative and reform-leaning media would would be ferocious against her because for all sorts of reasons largely to do with class and gender prejudice but so yeah having a tax question of you is not ideal but other things being equal that she really does seem to be able to put that behind her and then that crowded the field a little bit as well and she is an MP.

11:22Rafael Behr:And, you know, I mean, Ed Miliband, well, we know at some stage he's wanted to be Labour leader because he was Labour leader. We also know that he wanted to be Prime Minister and he went to the country and offered his services as Prime Minister and the country quite clearly said no. So I think there's an open question as to whether the Labour Party in the country and also Labour MPs will feel wary of that particular circumstance because it is a problem to the country, a dish that they've already sent back to the kitchen once before.

11:58Well, let's talk about the ideas at play here, because Treating has accused Starmer of having no vision, as many others have. But what are the different visions that the various candidates have for how to get Labour out of this mess?

12:10Rafael Behr:To the extent that there is a developed alternative programme, I think people would probably say Andy Burnham has put the most flesh on the bones. He's spoken quite directly about wanting institutional reform. He supports proportional representation. He wants to stop using the whip system to allow a sort of a free parliamentary debate. He's hinted, suggested that the triple lock may be up for negotiation. So you can actually do some quite interesting fiscal maneuver around there if you're prepared to go to that place. He's run Manchester and he's talked about having a more ambitious, strategic state intervention in the economy uh whether that's that nationalization of public services rather things and that is a a more clearly articulated further social democratic project than the one we've got so far in terms of west streeting there's a pamphlet published by the labor growth group which is considered to be roughly speaking aligned with with with west streeting, where there's talk of tax reform and maybe raising capital gains tax, so you could cut VAT or cut employer national insurance to try and boost growth, but in a way that would be fiscally neutral.

13:25Rafael Behr:So there aren't actual ideas floating around. And I think almost anyone who replaces Keir Starmer as leader of the Labour Party will also want to be more ambitious on Europe. But whether any of them is actually going to come out and say, yeah, those red lines that we had in the 2024 manifesto, no single market, no customs union, should be dissolved before the next election. Well, that's a bigger ask. Would you think any of those candidates have actually really and seriously engaged with why Labour under Starmer is failing? It's very difficult to disentangle the problem of Keir Starmer as a personality, as someone who has not made clear decisions, not set a clear sense of direction, not articulated a clear destination for the country and the policy choices that have been made.

14:15Rafael Behr:So it's interesting going back to Wes Streeting's resignation letter that he named the Island of Strangers speech, which a lot of people in Labour Party thought was a pointlessly unpleasant rating of Enoch Powell-like language on immigration. He mentioned the winter fuel payment cuts, which a lot of people felt was a pointlessly and poorly executed demonstration of fiscal discipline that involved essentially taking money away from pensioners, which is not necessarily a good way to enabler yourself to the country, certainly not early on in a parliament. But were those ideological mistakes? Were those expressions of deficiency in the political projects?

14:58Rafael Behr:Or were they just a sign of an administration that didn't really have a plan, didn't really know what it was doing? So many of the problems that Keir Starmer has faced, if we set aside the deficiency of communication, are actually expressions of the fact that there isn't a whole lot of money available. Borrowing money is difficult because the bond market, the guilt market, takes a pretty dim view of political chaos and expects very clear revenue income. And in the manifesto, Labour committed to not raising taxes on working people, as the expression was. And so in order to do the sorts of things that certainly Labour MPs like to think a Labour government is all about, particularly spending more on public services, supporting the most vulnerable people in the society.

15:50Rafael Behr:How you do that when you are in fiscally straightened circumstances is just really, really hard. And is that something that a Labour government with another leader is realistically going to be able to do? It does require an ability to make some really tough choices or an ability to win some really tough arguments about tax and spend in the country. And those are two things that Keir Starmer hasn't been able to do. But there is a section of the left of the Labour party that will say that the fiscal rules are a problem they're a fiction they're needlessly restrictive if you want to just govern well self-imposed and there is in rational macroeconomic argument there is a lot of truth in that it is also true that the people who lend money to the UK government like the existence of the fiscal rules as a demonstration of serious intent to to not spend beyond your means as a country and much though we might wish it were not true the bond market is a very powerful disciplinarian in this field and the fact that for example Andy Burnham is on record as saying we should not be necessarily in hoc to the bond market that quote has damaged him very very badly in in the city and in finance and he might wish that weren't the case, but I can tell you that definitely is the case.

17:09Rafael Behr:And one of the things, if he wants to be leader of the Labour Party, he can make the point another way and try and get on, but he has to make it clear that he definitely misspoke, as it were, when he said that.

17:21Coming up, a peek inside Keir Starmer's brain.

17:40I'm Kai Wright. I'm Kai Sherman. And we are here to tell you about our new show, which is rooted in this feeling that at least I have, I know you have, where, you know, it's kind of like when you wake up in the morning and you pick up your phone and you're just hit in the face with a fire hose of news, right? There's war, there's authoritarianism, our planet is burning. I could go on and on and on. On and on and on. But like we're trying to figure out how to manage it, right? Like how do you manage it? I manage it by leaning in and trying to learn more and trying to figure out, OK, how can I be smarter about this particular topic?

18:17And who can I talk to that's going to make me feel better about it? And who can tell me who's responsible for the mess that I'm reading about? So that's our mission. That's the show. Welcome to Stateside with Kai and Carter. We're a new show from The Guardian. We're talking to big thinkers and the best journalists just trying to understand the world through smart conversation and honest reporting. We don't have billionaires telling us what to say. Stateside with Kyan Carter is out now every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Follow on Apple Podcasts or catch us wherever you watch or listen.

19:00I used to think spreadsheets were just part of it. Ugh. But real-time cash flow? Wow. Invoices that chase themselves? Even better. Books that automate? That's a big one. And I can keep track from my phone while I get the job done. No spreadsheet in sight. What a life. Do right by yourself and your business and search XERO for your free trial. Conditions apply.

19:30Of course, Raf, let's not forget that Starmer is still prime minister and there is currently no formal challenger. He has, of course, faced this disastrous set of local elections. 80 of his MPs have called on him to go, as well as four of the ministers. Before the big one, of course, his health secretary. Sat inside number 10 now. What do you think he's thinking?

19:51Rafael Behr:My understanding of Keir Starmer's personality is that he is incredibly stubborn. He's incredibly ambitious. He has a very strong sense of civic duty and he believes very clearly and very powerfully that it is his responsibility to do this almost to the point of a kind of arrogant vanity. and that he will still think, if I apply myself to this problem with enough diligence and people will just get out of the way and let me solve this problem, I can do it and I've got time without necessarily wanting to admit, because it's quite a hard thing for anyone to admit, that he is the problem. And you can't prescribe more of yourself in that situation.

20:37Rafael Behr:So - Something of a messiah complex. Everyone who becomes prime minister ends up a little bit in that place, to be honest. It is intrinsic to the role and the ambition of people who get into that role, I would say. But also there has to come a point where he thinks enough already, whether that's because of his family or whether someone, as I believe people have communicated to him about the future of the Labour Party, that you will destroy the party itself if you don't recognise that you are now a problem here. at some point that will get through but my instinct my guess it's not much more than a guess is that if he can be given a ladder to climb down with his dignity intact which is the longer run the longer transition the thing that west streetings resignation letter also pointed to you can get to a place where he will say okay look in all seriousness i do recognize that perhaps i'm not the person to lead this party into a general election and then the logjam is broken then there's all sorts of negotiations that could go on and Andy Burnham could get into Parliament.

21:43Rafael Behr:I think it needs that step yet to go where he has to sufficiently feel that his dignity is honoured and respected and there is still a legacy available to him that isn't just you bit off more than you could chew and you failed. If it wasn't bad enough to ask you to get into Keir Starmer's head, Raph, I'm going to ask you to enter Nigel Farage's instead. How do you think reform will be responding to all of this. Please don't make me go into Nigel Farage's head, but I'll do my best. They must be loving it. Of course, they're loving it because they're loving the fact that it's just complete mess and chaos.

22:18Rafael Behr:And it entirely amplifies their argument that Labour, Tory, what's the difference? And therefore, you need a complete rupture from both of them. The idea that Labour, Tory are essentially equivalent propositions is very important to the Nigel Farage message. And the fact that we are back in this situation that, I mean, there are nuanced differences, but I think a lot of people will look at it and go, weren't we just here before with all those Tories? It feels very much the same vibe. So that is absolutely brilliant for Farage's argument. You know, I think perhaps they might think the best case scenario is after all this, you've still got Keir Starmer as the leader.

22:50Rafael Behr:He's incredibly unpopular. And therefore that's also good for any opposition party. But might reform be worried about Starmer getting replaced with Burnham? As soon as there's a change of leadership, naturally there is a danger. that there's a honeymoon, someone comes in, there's a bounce. You get someone in, you get the second audition and people look. But I think that the main recommendation for Andy Burnham and what his supporters will say is self-evidently, he is the person best placed to do that because he's shown that he can do it in Manchester and he's actually brought quite a broad spectrum of people behind him in Manchester and he's worked with people from other parties.

23:24Rafael Behr:And his critics will say, well, it's this kind of blokey king of the North shtick, it's not serious. But actually, he's pretty much the only Labour politician with a net positive poll rating. And in the current circumstances, that's not to be sniffed at. That is quite a significant asset. I would say also, in terms of just the cephalogy of this, what Labour's strategy is going into a general election, what is the actual task? You speak to Labour MPs, what they will essentially say is, look, who are we kidding? The job is to stop Nigel Farage becoming prime minister. There are quite a lot of people who didn't vote Labour in the local and devolved elections.

24:04Rafael Behr:More the people who drifted to the Greens, as I understand it from the polling, than people who might have stayed at home or even gone off to reform. But a lot of people who still are open to voting Labour. The evidence suggests that it's not a sort of a sealed wound now where people just think it's a scar. I don't want to go there. I'm done with Labour. They are open to Labour. So it's not impossible that the right leader comes in, they pass that second audition, Labour's poll share goes up and suddenly it looks like we've had peak Farage. And so he must be worried about that. But there are also candidates potentially on the ballot that Farage would be absolutely cock-a-hooped to see become leader of the Labour Party and just be praying for some of those people to win, to get on the ballot and win so that he can attack them.

24:50Blimey. Doesn't sound like it's going to get any less messy anytime soon. Raf, thank you so much for your time.