The frantic push to bring peace to Ukraine

0:00This is The Guardian.

0:09Today, the peace deal that could finally break the Russia-Ukraine stalemate.

0:23According to a report by the U.S. media outlet Axios, the United States has been secretly working with Russia on a new draft plan to end the war in Ukraine. First, there was a 28-point plan, pushed by Donald Trump last Wednesday as a solution to end almost four years of a war that has devastated Ukraine and killed or injured hundreds of thousands of soldiers and civilians. By the weekend, there had been a redraft, a slimmed-down 19-point proposal, this time with European leaders involved. The United Kingdom, France and Germany have put forward a counterproposal to US President Donald Trump's peace plan for Ukraine.

1:05The most contentious bits in this peace plan, such as the territory and the NATO membership, has not been directly addressed in the new version. By Tuesday, at a summit in Abu Dhabi, US, Russian and Ukrainian officials were hammering out peace plan Mark III. All eyes on Abu Dhabi, where Trump's unlikely negotiator, US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, is holding talks with the Russians. The Guardian's Russian affairs reporter, Pyotr Sauer, has been following the twists and turns. The pace has been staggering. We've seen Ukrainian and American officials meet in Geneva. We've seen Europeans gather and come together with their own peace plan.

1:44And now we're seeing Russian and Ukrainian and American officials flying to Abu Dhabi. All in the space in a week, there's rumors that Zelensky will fly to Washington to meet Trump himself. And I think it's likely that U.S. officials will also fly to Moscow to meet Putin and the Kremlin. One U.S. spokesperson claimed that Ukraine had already accepted Tuesday's deal, likely as a strategy to break the diplomatic deadlock. In any case, it feels like hope is on the horizon.

2:15Obviously we will miss Trump's deadline of Thanksgiving on Thursday for a full peace deal but things are moving at an unprecedented speed From The Guardian, I'm Nosheen Ekbal Today in Focus, the push to bring peace to Ukraine

2:36Piotr Sauer, you're a Russian affairs reporter for The Guardian Where do things stand right now in Kiev and Moscow? Well, the mood is very different in both cities. Ukraine has had a very tough week in general. Last week, over two dozen civilians were killed in another strike in Western Ukraine. There have been power shortages. While Moscow is feeling confident, they're advancing on the battlefield. But I think the main development in both cities has been the talk of diplomacy. We've heard about three different peace plans that have come about in the last week. And I think everyone, civilians and officials are looking closely how they develop.

3:14Piotr, how did the current version of this plan come about and who was behind it? Well, the most recent one came about over the weekend. It's actually a rework of the original 28-point peace plan. This one was rehashed by Ukrainian and American officials in Geneva. America's top diplomat, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has just arrived in Geneva as delegations from Ukraine and the United States, as well as European security chiefs, meet to discuss President Trump's 28-point plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war. They had a flurry of talks. The main aim of this peace plan was to make the original 28-point peace plan more acceptable for Kiev, because the original one was totally unacceptable for Ukraine.

3:58And that came straight out of Moscow, together with the American officials. and had some conditions that included a cap on the Ukrainian military. Agreeing to the Russian request that they have troops capped at 600 ,000 for the Ukrainians. You would ask for Ukraine to give up land at Eastern Ukraine that it currently holds, for which Ukraine has bled and suffered thousands and thousands of lives. It also included terms that would limit Ukraine from having Western military weapons and Western troops. Another term was some of the frozen Russian assets would actually be given back to Russia. It also demands a full amnesty for all war crimes, which would mean that all the atrocities Russian soldiers committed would be forgiven.

4:45It couldn't be pursued in international courts. It couldn't be pursued. Putin would not anymore be international wanted by The Hague as he currently is for war crimes and also for the kidnapping of the many Ukrainian children that were sent to Russia. So this is sort of a list that very much resembles Russia's original demands and were very tough on Ukraine. We know that Ukraine diplomats worked hard in Geneva to change that. And the new deal seems to take away some of those things. But it's very important. You know, this peace deal says that the three presidents, Trump, Zelensky and Putin, would have to work out the most sensitive issues later on.

5:23Right. Which leaves a lot of room for interpretation. Russia has already said that they would reject whatever was written in Geneva. Out of principle. Out of principle and because it's not their plan. Their plan was the original 28 points. And Russia has been clear that they want all of Donbass, Ukraine's mineral-rich Eastern Ukrainian territories. They've been clear that they want written guarantees from the West that Ukraine would never join NATO. And they demand that Ukraine has no Western weapons or military on its ground. And in terms of what Ukraine wants the most out of any prospective peace deal, what would their demands have been?

6:02Well, I think Zelensky always said that it has to be just dignified peace. From the start, Ukraine said they don't want to lose more territory than they've currently already lost. So they would like to freeze the lines along the current battlefield. They also asked for reconstruction of their country. So to use the 200 billion euros that are currently frozen by the EU to use that money for reconstruction of Ukraine rather than what the original plan said that some of the money would go to Ukraine and the other half would go to Russia together with the US. Right. Which is sort of a ridiculous prospect because this is money frozen in the EU and the Europeans would have to agree to that, which they said they wouldn't.

6:43But I think most importantly is for Ukraine that if they aren't allowed to join NATO, they still get some sort of guarantee that Russia does not invade. Whether these are sort of a similar NATO construct where countries come to their defense if Russia invades again, or ideally for Ukraine, Western boots on the ground. Pyotr, as we speak on Tuesday afternoon, what shape are the negotiations in? So this morning, Russian, Ukrainian and American officials flew to Abu Dhabi to discuss this latest proposal, the rehashed plan that has been made into 19 points. American officials say that Ukraine has accepted a peace proposal during their talks in Abu Dhabi.

7:28Learning from a U.S. official that Ukraine has agreed to a peace proposal to end the war with Russia, saying that only, quote, minor details are outstanding now. Now, the word from Ukraine's President Zelensky is much work still lies ahead. Russian officials are also at the talks and there's no news yet whether Russia is accepting any kind of peace proposal. U.S. media outlets are reporting that Ukraine has accepted a deal according to an unnamed U.S. official. How much do you think this is actually a briefing to apply pressure to Ukraine? I think it's important to stress that the U.S. officials said that they've agreed, but some minor issues are still to be ironed out.

8:09These minor issues might actually be quite major. They likely cover Ukraine's security guarantees and they likely cover territory exchange or what sort of territory Ukraine will lose. But I do think it's a way for the US to pressure Ukraine to get them over the line. And they hope that once they have Ukraine over the line, they will get Russia over the line.

8:34when it comes to the detail of what trump originally proposed which a week ago was this 28 point plan for peace now down to 19 points what do we know about how it was drafted and how it emerged yeah the inception of this plan is fascinating it was first leaked to axios the american news outlet early last week and now we're starting to learn more and more about how this plan was developed. It wasn't developed by traditional diplomats from either side. It was actually developed by Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and his old business partner, Steve Witkoff, together with Russia's special envoy, Kirill Dmitriev.

9:11All three men have very, very little experience in diplomacy, but they see themselves as dealmakers. The plan started to develop around a month ago, mostly developed in Florida. Today, White House special envoy, Steve Witkoff said to meet with his Russian counterpart in Miami as President Trump's push to end the war in Ukraine intensified. Dmitry flew to Florida to meet with Kushner and Witkoff. And I think it says a lot about the Trump administration, because Trump always presents himself as an anti-establishment dealmaker. He doesn't care about traditional ways of doing diplomacy. How effective is that strategy outside of the usual channels of diplomacy?

9:48Well, we'll yet to see. I think it's much easier to say that you're making a deal. But if you're not doing the actual diplomatic work behind it, I think it might prove to be very short-lived. The language of this deal was, I think, was striking. It was written in a very transactional format. The language we usually see in peace deals was lacking. Often it was unclear how certain things would be monitored, how they would be implemented. I think people in Russia also quickly said that Putin would not accept this paper. Even though it was very favorable for Russia and it had a lot of input from Kirill Dmitriev, the Russian envoy, it still left a lot of room for interpretation.

10:29So I think that's interesting that even though a lot of Ukrainians and Europeans right away said that this is a Russian plan, Putin himself was very careful in assessing it on Friday. He said that it's a good base work as a plan.

10:51But, you know, I have my issues with it. I mean, people will say it was a Russian plan to the point where there were rumors flying that it was written by Russians in Russia and then just sort of put through Google Translate. I mean, what did you make of that? I thought it was funny, but I Google translated it back into Russian. And, you know, I'm a native Russian speaker and it looks silly in Russian as well. And it looks very clunky in Russian as well. Right. I think the main takeaway really is that it's just a plan not written by professionals, but by people who are used to making property deals and business deals.

11:27And how unusual is it? I mean, yes, we've talked about the fact that it's been drafted outside of the usual channels of diplomacy. But the fact that it is so or was so aligned with Russian interests, given that the US is supposed to be such a major ally for Ukraine. It is unusual and I think one of the main reasons for it is that Steve Witkoff was one of the architects of this peace plan. Steve Witkoff has visited Putin on several occasions.

12:01He has spoken very favorably of Putin. He was on a podcast with Tucker Carlson. Putin's got a huge respect for the president. Carlson asked Witkoff if he liked Putin and he said... I don't regard Putin as a bad guy. Yeah, I think the Russians have done a very good job at massaging Witkoff's ego. From the very start, they identified Witkoff as a man they could work with. Because the Russians knew there are other factions in the White House that are traditionally more opposed to the Kremlin. If we think about Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and he seems to have been left out of negotiations. Rubio traditionally is sort of more part of the hawkish camp and is more realistic as well about what Russia wants.

12:44So I think the Russians really targeted Witkoff. And I think now we're seeing the fruits of that.

12:55And in terms of, well, you said that Putin announced that it was perhaps a good base, but not something he would necessarily agree to. But how did Ukraine respond to that first deal? I think the general population, activists and soldiers, they were outraged. They said that this is a de facto capitulation. We will lose our sovereignty. And everything they fought for. And everything they fought for and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians who died, soldiers and civilians, of course. But Ukrainian officials had to be way more careful because they know they're operating with Trump. We've seen in the past, of course, that Trump has been very emotional and angry in the way he is.

13:35He posted this where he lashed Ukraine's leadership saying, Ukraine's leadership has expressed zero gratitude for our efforts. Over Ukraine's refusal to accept Russia's demands. We've seen Zelensky going through the motion of saying how grateful he is for Trump's work. I think everyone's afraid of a repeat at the White House where Trump shouted at Zelensky. and humiliated him. So Ukrainians know that they have no choice but to go along with it to a certain extent and to hope that, like in the past, they'll be able to change Trump's mind and present him with a more acceptable paper, which Trump would then back.

14:14How significant do you think it is that European leaders did seem initially sidelined or frozen out of this process? I think it's very telling and very characteristic to this whole process. Europe has been sidelined And there's been one of Russia's main wishes that they only talk to the Americans because they consider themselves a superpower alongside the Americans. Right. So Putin has no interest in talking to any other European leader? He has no interest. And, you know, he really looks down on the Europeans. I think it's very telling that a lot of European officials only found out about this original plan from media reports.

14:50So they've been humiliated, I think that's fair to say, and have been scrambling to change the momentum. And to exert some influence. To exert some influence. And I think it's very striking how left out they've been because we're talking about European security here. Some of the terms directly included European interests, for example, the frozen assets. And Europe said, well, it's up to us to decide what happens to those assets, not up to Americans or Russians. Another term said that all the Western jets that were given to Ukraine, that they would be stationed in Poland. And the Polish president said, no decision about Poland can be made without our input.

15:28So I think it's telling, it's pretty baffling, frankly, how sideline Europe has been. I think Europe is obviously also very concerned that if Russia comes out of this on top, they're sort of next in this broader conflict between Russia and the West. You know, Russia has over a million troops now stationed in and around Ukraine. what happens to all those soldiers will sort of a confident Putin start looking to provoke things in the Baltics or in Moldova. So I think for Europe, it's very important to make sure that Russia doesn't come out of this war emboldened to go after Europe next. But Europe has its own sort of Trump whispers, and they're working overtime right now.

16:16One of them is Alexander Stoop, the head of Finland. You know, when we speak among leaders... ...who is very friendly with Trump. ...this call this morning was rather spontaneous. Maloney, the leader of Italy, is sort of on the line with Trump. It was just a good opportunity for Prime Minister Maloney and myself to speak with the president this morning. We've also seen Keir Starmer calling Trump and Mertz of Germany. So, yeah, they're getting activated again. But we see that Zelensky is on the phone with them as well. So I think their main goal right now is to change Trump's mind and show that the original plan is just completely unreasonable and hope that Trump would accept this reworked plan that's been made on Sunday.

17:01Trump, of course, is so very keen to present himself as the world's deal-making, war-ending hero in chief. How important is he to this calculation, to what Russia and Ukraine ultimately agree to? Yeah, as you said, Trump's way of presenting himself is as a peacemaker. We never really know how many wars he solved because it changes in his mind. Some is eight, some is nine. Of course, he's feeling confident after the Gaza ceasefire, even though that appears to be pretty shaky. But at the same time, I think it's very important for Trump to get a deal now because his ratings at home are going down.

17:40He, of course, promised that he would solve this war in 24 hours. I would get a settlement in 24 hours. Now, it should have never happened. You have thousands, hundreds of thousands. Of course, there's his initial promise coming into office. He sort of quickly realized that it's much harder. So he needs a diplomatic victory. And I think he wants to focus more on domestic U.S. politics, on the economy that's not going well. But the question is, to what extent Trump really has any leverage over Russia? Of course, with Ukraine, he can cut off weapons, can cut off intelligence. He seems to be able to pressure Zelensky.

18:13But with Russia, yes, he's introduced actions against major oil companies. But for Putin, this war is so existential that it's rather unlikely that Putin would give him much just because Trump has threatened him. Coming up, what will it take to get this deal over the line?

18:50so when it comes to trying to understand how the war is being waged it's heading into its fourth year now but right now you know in terms of who's winning who's losing who has the upper hand in a military sense who has more political leverage in a global sense who needs this deal the most right now? I think it's fair to say that all sides would want some sort of peace. Of course, everything depends on the peace that is arranged in the end. Ukraine is under huge pressure now militarily. It's struggling to contain the alliance in eastern Ukraine. It has lost two important cities, Pokrovsk and Kupansk.

19:30In eastern Ukraine, it's struggling to mobilize enough soldiers. It's about to go into what likely will be a very tough winter. And it's facing a huge corruption scandal at home. Right. Which presents arguably the biggest political crisis for Zelensky since the start of the Fulskown invasion. Allies close to Zelensky have been accused of mass corruption and embezzlement of funds. Right. At the same time, while Russia appears to be doing well on the battlefield, its economy is struggling. the oil sanctions introduced by Trump are really starting to have an impact. Russia has lost 35 % revenue in oil and gas sales this year compared to previous years.

20:17So this war economy is starting to come to a hold. And I think Putin realizes that it cannot sustain this war on the same level it has before. And even though he's making progress, it comes at enormous costs. over a million russians have either been killed or wounded um and the question is for how much longer will be will he be able to uh sustain of this current level fighting well on that what is the public mood like in both countries because i think you know at the beginning of this war there was a lot of awe and respect for the fact that there was such ukrainian strength and spirit and, you know, four years, it's a long time to be suffering in these conditions.

21:02And so I wonder in terms of the civilians on both sides, how are they now feeling about their leaders and about the state of this war? Well, it's always slightly tough to pull the mood in Russia because it's a very authoritarian state. But the few hints we're getting from the last independent pollster, Levada, show that the majority of Russians now want peace. It's a criminal offense to say you're against the war. When Russians are asked, would you want the peace talks to start, 60 to 70 % say yes. So we can see that I think the war fatigue is kicking in Russia as well. In Ukraine, it's difficult because we know that every Ukrainian would like the war to end, not tomorrow, but today.

21:48But also not for nothing. Not for nothing, exactly. So, you know, when asked, you know, would you like the war to end? Of course, it's a logical thing to say yes, because the Ukrainians are the ones dying and coming under shelling every day. Everyone knows someone who's been killed fighting. At the same time, they're not willing to give up land. And I think the biggest issue for Ukraine is to get security guarantees to make sure this never happens again. So, yes, they're really looking forward to this war to end, but only in a sort of just peace. And ultimately, what incentive is there for Putin to agree to a deal?

22:23The way he's looking at it is a win-win situation. Either he gets a deal that is so favorable for Russia, where he really gets these sort of written guarantees that Ukraine becomes a neutral country, that it will never be able to defend itself in the future, possibly triggering political chaos in Ukraine, which you could then use later on. Putin's aim is still to get a Ukraine that's completely subordinate to Russia. that never changed. So either he gets a very good deal right now in his view, and if he doesn't, no problem, we'll just keep the war going. Also taking in mind that Trump could pull away.

23:01Right. I mean, you've written about the fact that this last week, irrespective of what's in the deals and what's not in the deals, just the chaos around the plans just plays entirely into Putin's hands. Can you explain why? Well, for Putin, it's important that the West is not acting as a united bloc. And we've seen tensions between Americans and Europeans, again, come to the surface. And I think through throwing out this peace plan, he managed to change the momentum. Piotr, finally, Tuesday afternoon, peace plan Mark III is on the table. How likely do you think it is that it will bring a conclusive end to this war?

23:36And how much do you trust that peace will hold if it does? Well, Trump said he wants peace by Thanksgiving, which is Thursday. We can obviously forget about that the main obstacle remains russia and they've indicated that uh as it always has been there always has been of course because they're the invading party the war could stop tomorrow if russian troops just leave but for putin you know ending the war uh without gaining everything he wants uh would be very hard he's so obsessed with uh you know making ukraine sort of his puppet that it's it's hard to imagine that unless he gives everything which ukraine can't and in europe won't want to, he will stop.