Trump extends Iran ceasefire: can a deal be made? – The Latest

0:00Patrick Wintour:This is The Guardian.

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0:45Patrick Wintour:It is significant they're now starting to seize ships because they need to ram home to the Americans that they feel they're winning this war. At least they're not losing this war. Iran's Revolutionary Guard says it is back on the attack in the Strait of Hormuz, facing a blockade from the Americans. They have attacked three cargo ships this morning. We're in a very difficult position where neither side wants to back down, but neither side really wants to go for all-out war. There is a real conflict going on in the Strait, and how that plays out is going to be critical to whether the talks recommend.

1:19Iran says it seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and a third has reportedly been attacked after Donald Trump extends the ceasefire indefinitely. From the Guardians today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Lucy Half. Well, I'm joined by Patrick Winter, our diplomatic editor. Thanks for dialing in, Patrick. So it's been yet another slightly confusing week. There was supposed to be a ceasefire that was due to expire at 8pm Eastern Standard Time in the US tonight, according to Pakistan. But Trump has now, late last night, extended the ceasefire indefinitely. Prior to that, he threatened yet more bombing, more military violence.

2:02Why the U-turn? What's going on? Is this pressure from Pakistan? Is it the markets? Or is there something else kind of behind the scenes?

2:09Patrick Wintour:Well, I mean, such as the confusion, people couldn't actually agree at the point to which the ceasefire was supposed to expire. People had different timelines for it. I think it's a multiplicity of reasons why he's decided to do this, and it's not the first time he's delayed some kind of deadline or other. But I think it's a mixture of he actually doesn't really want to return to a full-scale conflict. I mean, he was talking about bombing every bridge, every power station, and it was all Back to the Stone Ages Part 7. And actually the reality is that I think he's realised that the price of full-scale aerial action that he's undertaken in the past is too high, and he wants to find a peace settlement.

2:51Patrick Wintour:So he's slightly switching mode and trying to think about different ways to put pressure on the Iranians. And I think also there is more and more evidence about what's going to happen in the midterm elections. I know they still seem a long way away, but it's starting to bake in a bit about how many seats they might lose in the Senate and how many they might lose in the Congress. And that would be, if it was as bad as some people are predicting, that would be the effective end of his presidency. goodness what a thought and in no small part and in fact probably mainly to do with this war in which has so little support from the American public and that opposition increasing meanwhile the situation in the strait of Hamuz is very febrile very volatile when we last spoke Trump had imposed this US blockade on Iranian ports to prevent those Iranian ships leaving or at least monitor them.

3:44There's now been the seizure of two ships, allegedly by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC. A third ship has been attacked this morning, reportedly, we understand. So what's going on? I mean, this doesn't feel like fertile ground for ceasefire negotiations.

4:03Patrick Wintour:Yes. I mean, I think the ghastly phrase, the kinetic activity has switched from land to sea. and there are these two different blockades, one laid over the other. There's the US blockade on Iranian ports, and the purpose behind that is to, in effect, make it impossible for Iran to continue to produce oil within a matter of a fortnight, it's been estimated. If they can't get their oil out, then the oil production will have to come to a halt, And that could cause some permanent damage to some of the oil installations in Iran. So they lose revenue and their industry, which is the most important revenue generating industry, gets crippled.

4:47Patrick Wintour:I mean, that's the American plan. And obviously the Iranian plan, which they're stepping up by now, seizing ships, is to keep the chokehold on the strait with 20 percent of oil and most commodities go through that strait. So the Iranians are continuing to use this metric of what is the price of oil. As long as it's going up, they're happy. But I think it is significant they're now starting to seize ships because they need to really ram home to the Americans that they feel they're winning this war, or at least they're not losing this war, and that they're in a totally resolute position. That then will feed back into what both sides feel they should do in terms of returning to talks in Islamabad.

5:31Patrick Wintour:because they're just both strengthening their hands ahead of those talks ever happening. Yeah, and you've written a great piece about how Trump's erratic strategy is really proving an obstruction to the ceasefire process or at least where it moves from here given that it's been extended indefinitely but talks seem to be stalled and very uncertain. I mean, Trump is posting, as per your reporting, kind of at least seven truth social posts a day often with incredibly contradictory messages. What are the sorts of conversations you've been having with diplomats sort of involved in the various engaged parties?

6:10Patrick Wintour:It's not just the Iranians. I mean, for some strange reasons, I was with some diplomats last night from the Caucasus and they were just saying that, and they've got their own kind of peace deal going on, which Trump's supposed to be engineering. And they find it very, very difficult because they get conflicting messages from the White House about the kind of agreement they're supposed to be striking. It's not just an Iranian problem, but particularly over the weekend, there was a selection of tweets which were very triumphalist by Trump. And I think it's now become a self-standing problem, the way in which Trump is using the media and trying to suggest that he's already won this war, when I think it's very deep in the Iranian psyche, and it might be in many countries' psyche.

6:55Patrick Wintour:They're not going to feel trampled upon or going to negotiate when they're under threat. And this has got a school of thought inside Iran that they've now proved themselves, have gone up the elite table of great powers and they've proved themselves to be capable of standing up to Trump time and again. So what next for the peace talks? Because J.D. Vance, the vice president, has postponed a planned trip to Pakistan, right? and Iran says it won't proceed without an end to the blockade and both sides, the US and Iran, are kind of trading military threats. So where do you think we're likely to go from here?

7:35Patrick Wintour:Well, I think we're in a difficulty, to be honest. I think the key Iranian demand is that the American blockade ends and the key US demand is the Iranian blockade ends And that is just to get people to the starting gate, which is to recommence negotiations. So it's very difficult. And what's going on at the moment is obviously this back and forth about the various blockades. But there's also behind the scenes negotiations happening about what would happen when the two sides met, because it would all be choreographed. It wouldn't be choreographed to the last minute. But there would be a sort of certain assumptions that progress was going to be made on two or three issues.

8:15Patrick Wintour:and at the moment I don't think those behind-the-scenes talks going on mediated by Pakistan are going very well either because I think the Iranians have been quite tough in what they're demanding and the Americans aren't relenting. So we're in a very difficult position where neither side wants to back down but neither side really wants to go for all-out war. So we're getting this kind of surrogate battle, which I think is more than limbo. Some people describe it as limbo. I don't think it is. There is a real conflict going on in the strait And how that plays out is going to be critical to whether the talks recommends.

8:49And just lastly, Patrick, I mean, like you say, it's a limbo, but it's a limbo particularly for all of us who are, you know, as consumers paying the cost of this war. But for Iranians, there's an estimated 2 million people who've lost their jobs since the start of the conflict, which is an unbelievably large amount of people. Trump estimates that the Iranian regime is losing$500 million a day because of this. But I just wonder if you can give us, as a long-time Iran watcher, a kind of sense of how hard this has become for people living in Iran.

9:23Patrick Wintour:Well, I think the difficulty is largely arising out of the blockage on the internet. And this has now gone on for more than 50 days. And certainly when you, one of the stuff I'm reading out of Iran, the demand for the restrictions on the Internet to be lifted is repeated. And it's actually now coming from quite senior politicians inside Iran itself. And there's a conflict between the political side and the security side. And the reason it matters so much is that, as in any modern economy, which to a degree Iran is, they are dependent on the Internet to trade. And that's why there is such high unemployment and the numbers starting to come in about inflation, particularly food inflation, are really quite frightening as well.

10:09Yeah, so an enormous human cost. Patrick, thank you as ever for your time.

10:14Patrick Wintour:No problem. That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Patrick Wintour, our diplomatic editor. You can keep up with his reporting and analysis over at TheGuardian.com. And I do really recommend his piece, He Talks Too Much, How Trump's Erratic Commentary is the Real Block to an Iran Deal. I'd also give a big shout out to yesterday's episode of Science Weekly. Ian Sample talks to our AI reporter Aisha Down about a new model from AI company Anthropic that they say is so powerful they won't release it to the public. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest. Today on Focus will be back in your feeds as usual tomorrow morning.

10:48The latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. It was produced by Bryony Moore. The senior producer was Ryan Mangobin and the lead producer was Zoe Hitch.

11:01Patrick Wintour:This is The Guardian.

11:33We'll be right back. job done. No bills in sight. What a life. Do right by yourself and your business and search X-E-R-O for your free trial. Conditions apply.

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