Trump latest Iran deadline looms – The Latest

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0:30and what he will do, targeting an entire country of 93 million people, all their life support, that would almost certainly be a war crime. Donald Trump warns that an entire civilisation will die tonight if Iran doesn't agree to a deal to end the conflict. But how seriously can we take these claims? From the Guardians today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Lucy Hough. Well, joining me is Julian Borger, Senior International Correspondent at The Guardian. Julian, it's great to have you back with us. It does feel a bit like Groundhog Day at the moment. But we've had sort of attempts at diplomacy to bring the Iran war to an end over the weekend, haven't we?

1:12And specifically reopening the Strait of Hamuz. But Donald Trump seems to have very much his own agenda. He's extended his ultimatum to tonight. If not, he's threatening to decimate Iran by targeting Bridges' power plants. Tell me about what he's been threatening and why. Yeah, it was quite the wild weekend. On Sunday, we had this truth social post from Trump, which was one of the most extraordinary misses from any president in history. It was an expletive laden it was uh telling uh iran open the effing homer's strait uh you crazy bastard so you'll be living in hell and then rounded it off with praise be to allah right an extraordinary outburst on easter sunday um and the whole thing just renewed concerns about his mental stability He's getting more and more desperate.

2:14He wants this to be over. He thinks that by continuing to threaten Iran, he can get it over, but it's not getting him there. And so the real concern is that we don't know the mental state of this president and what he will do. Yeah, yeah. And it has been very interesting listening to him speak in the last few days, which obviously we have all had to a lot of just, you know, quite how old he's sounding. and as you say, this sense of increasing frustration, even anger, maybe that he's not getting what he wants from this war, that he's not getting the quick fix that he got in Venezuela with the capture of Maduro and that he's dealing with a situation in Iran which is much more complex than perhaps he and his administration anticipated.

3:00Just to talk about the specifics of what that Truth Social Post said and what we know about this ultimatum, he's calling this power plant day, bridge day, all wrapped up in one. So essentially bombing essential infrastructure in Iran. Talk to me about the illegality of that, the concerns that that would probably constitute a war crime. Yeah, I don't think there's much debate among military lawyers, legal experts, that targeting an entire country of 93 million people, targeting all their life support in terms of power and what that means in terms of hospitals, air conditioning, and so on, that would almost certainly be a war crime because it is very much an attempt to target the civilian population as a way of pressuring a government into surrendering.

3:58And under the Geneva Conventions, under US military law, that is a war crime. It is clear cut. The question is, is there anyone left in the room now who can say no to Donald Trump? This is a war crime. But in terms of accountability and guardrails against any potential illegality, any potential war crimes committed by the US and Israel in Iran, I mean, there are international bodies such as the UN, such as the ICC, the International Criminal Court. But where are the guardrails within the US administration and sort of US law that would prevent this type of action? Because these types of strikes would involve large numbers of civilian casualties.

4:42Trump seems to have done away with a lot of those guardrails. And Pete Hegseth, his defence secretary, has also been making some serious sort of purges of senior people within the US military who perhaps would caution against this type of action. No, that's absolutely right. That's been happening over the last one and a bit years. In the Pentagon, Hegshef has been removing the legal constraints. The people in the room from the judge, advocate, general's office, who are military lawyers, who would be saying, no, you can't do that. That's a war crime. A lot of those people have gone. A particular unit to limit civilian harm was set up under Biden has gone.

5:23And Hegseth has explicitly said, we don't want any of these roadblocks on what we can do. We are completely 100 % focused on lethality. So he's been open about wishing to get rid of the constraints to get rid of all those guardrails. And now they're gone. Yeah, which is deeply alarming. And you think of the US military personnel that are potentially being asked to carry out these strikes, the risks of civilian casualties, and whether they have the option to opt out. So many questions that we will have to see how this plays out this week. But meanwhile, what do we know about how Iran wants to respond to this?

6:07Because they don't want to agree to a temporary ceasefire, right? They want to end the war completely. But if they are struck by the US in this way, they are likely to retaliate. Yeah, they've made very clear that they will escalate. And what is quite likely is they will attack some of the targets in the Gulf that up to now they've held back from, which are some of the oil producing facilities, maybe desalination facilities. And desalination plants being facilities that convert salt water into drinking water, so obviously vital infrastructure, as is the energy infrastructure that is also currently under threat.

6:51And also up to now, once hormones had been opened, the oil could start flowing. But if damage is being done to oil producing facility, that would mean it would be months, if not years, for the oil to be coming out of the Gulf again. And then you have a much deeper economic and energy crisis. Yeah, which, of course, we're already experiencing. And the Gulf states already suffering so much in terms of the blockade of the Strait of Humus, in terms of their oil exports. Meanwhile, there have been these talks going on. And Pakistan has been taking a leading role in those. But we've also had involvement from Egypt and Turkey who are really working towards a ceasefire.

7:35How has that process been going? And how frustrating are these sort of bizarre posts from Trump on Truth Social that seem to undermine any kind of grown up efforts to bring this conflict to an end? Well, Trump believes that he's putting pressure on the Tehran regime to give in. But it's not working. It's unlikely to work. But Tehran will not accept, as they stand now in their present position, they will not accept a temporary ceasefire in which they open the Strait of Hormuz, their main leverage point, because they don't know what will happen to them after that. What they're insisting is that in return for some agreement about opening the strait, they want a long term settlement that isn't just on the word of Donald Trump, but is ratified by Congress, by a UN resolution.

8:32They want some signs of permanence to any agreement they do. So that is at the moment a very wide gap between the two sides. I mean, obviously, Julian, this is not the first time that Trump has extended this deadline, which is related to the forcing Iran to reopen the Strait of Hamuz. Is this just this new reality where this deadline keeps getting extended? There keeps being threats of further escalation, but sort of nothing materially changes and a ceasefire nor a kind of full all out war seems to materialize. Yeah, I mean, I think you were right. You said earlier that it was like Groundhog Day, but the groundhog just keeps getting bigger, uglier.

9:14Is that possible? Because he's doubled down or tripled down on this deadline. So the damage to his credibility to pull back once again would be all the greater. And so at some point, I suppose you come to some sort of breaking point. But anything is possible. He may say the Iranians are desperate for a deal and they've made fresh offers, even if it's not true. Or maybe he'll do some more bombing and claim it was the biggest bombing raid there's ever been. Or he could go for what he is threatening and suffer those consequences. But this is the problem for Trump. What he is threatening could be potentially as damaging to him and his cause as it is to Iran.

10:05Because if Iran strikes back, the oil price rockets again. Trump is in the even worse trouble. And so he keeps digging the hole deeper for himself. Yeah, he sure does. Julian, thank you so much for your time. Thank you. that's it for today my thanks again to julian borgia the guardian senior international correspondent you can keep up with his reporting and rolling coverage of the iran war over at theguardian.com and i'd really urge you to listen to our sister podcast full story from guardian australia who'll be covering the arrest of ben robert smith australia's most decorated living soldier who's now been arrested in relation to alleged war crimes thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest, the new evening edition of Today in Focus.

10:51Today in Focus will be back in your feeds as usual tomorrow morning. The Latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. It was produced by Bryony Moore. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin and the lead producer was Zoe Hitch.

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